diff --git a/data/csetforetell-questions.csv b/data/csetforetell-questions.csv index 1e34754..72c6b9f 100644 --- a/data/csetforetell-questions.csv +++ b/data/csetforetell-questions.csv @@ -1,10 +1,10 @@ "title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars" "Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","2","2",2 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","3","3",2 "Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Li Keqiang has been the second-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as Premier of the State Council since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the now-weakened Communist Youth League that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the number-two position.  Li is constitutionally barred from serving another five-year term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the customary upper age bound of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.Xi is expected to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","3","3",2 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","6","6",2 "Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Chen Min’er is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the next generation of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a protégé of Xi (who often promotes people he knows personally), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 2002-2007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","2","2",2 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","5","4",2 "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on ""initial approvals"" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The ""Big 5"" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ","[{""name"":""Less than 7,500"",""probability"":0.032,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500"",""probability"":0.299,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500"",""probability"":0.276,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 13,500"",""probability"":0.295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","14","13",2 "How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. @@ -12,13 +12,13 @@ "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ","[{""name"":""Less than $400 billion"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1456,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion"",""probability"":0.5044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion"",""probability"":0.2944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $775 billion"",""probability"":0.0256,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","10","9",2 "What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. -","[{""name"":""Less than 3%"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2929,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.35710000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%"",""probability"":0.0771,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.5%"",""probability"":0.0429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","8","7",2 +","[{""name"":""Less than 3%"",""probability"":0.2075,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.3625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.5%"",""probability"":0.0438,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","9","8",2 "What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell","Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today -","[{""name"":""Less than $470 billion"",""probability"":0.041100000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.10679999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion"",""probability"":0.2365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion"",""probability"":0.3395,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $680 billion"",""probability"":0.2762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","56","54",2 +","[{""name"":""Less than $470 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1039,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion"",""probability"":0.2303,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion"",""probability"":0.33840000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $680 billion"",""probability"":0.2874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","57","55",2 "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. ""Fires upon"" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","96","87",2 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","97","88",2 "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","148","125",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","149","126",3 "How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is ""private"" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?"" ","[{""name"":""Less than $40 billion"",""probability"":0.0541,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2559,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion"",""probability"":0.409,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion"",""probability"":0.2072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion"",""probability"":0.0738,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","44","42",2 "How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?"" @@ -36,22 +36,22 @@ "What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence""; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms ""privacy"" and ""security.""  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today ","[{""name"":""Less than 0.45%"",""probability"":0.050300000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1918,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%"",""probability"":0.30329999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%"",""probability"":0.22390000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2%"",""probability"":0.2306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","51","48",2 "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that ""China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.""The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.*** -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","116","80",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","117","81",3 "How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) ""military end-use or end-user controls,"" which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry -","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0.337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""One"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Two or more"",""probability"":0.293,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","92","81",2 +","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0.3477,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""One"",""probability"":0.364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Two or more"",""probability"":0.2882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","93","82",2 "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. ","[{""name"":""Less than 20%"",""probability"":0.0965,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 25%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17550000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%"",""probability"":0.36229999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%"",""probability"":0.2483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 35%"",""probability"":0.1175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","62","58",2 "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the ""lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly ""pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration."" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. *** -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","274","181",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","275","181",3 "When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** -","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.0379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.2407,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.6144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","203","127",3 +","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.0375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1058,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.23800000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.6187,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","204","128",3 "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ","[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.1305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.2643,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.2808,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.1336,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","190","155",3 "What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ","[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17309999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.3233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.2866,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.153,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","125","101",3 "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","162","124",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","163","125",3 "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field ","[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.0665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13470000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.21170000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.2741,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","191","137",3 "How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell","Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. -","[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.4596,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2688,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.1474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.08220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","120","72",3 \ No newline at end of file +","[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.4869,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2659,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.1394,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.07139999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.0365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","122","74",3 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/csetforetell-questions.json b/data/csetforetell-questions.json index 3b2c239..afc20b9 100644 --- a/data/csetforetell-questions.json +++ b/data/csetforetell-questions.json @@ -7,17 +7,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "2", - "numforecasters": "2", + "numforecasts": "3", + "numforecasters": "3", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -28,17 +28,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "3", - "numforecasters": "3", + "numforecasts": "6", + "numforecasters": "6", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -49,17 +49,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "2", - "numforecasters": "2", + "numforecasts": "5", + "numforecasters": "4", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -178,32 +178,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 3%", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.2075, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2929, + "probability": 0.3063, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%", - "probability": 0.35710000000000003, + "probability": 0.3625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%", - "probability": 0.0771, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 7.5%", - "probability": 0.0429, + "probability": 0.0438, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "8", - "numforecasters": "7", + "numforecasts": "9", + "numforecasters": "8", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -214,32 +214,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $470 billion", - "probability": 0.041100000000000005, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.10679999999999999, + "probability": 0.1039, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", - "probability": 0.2365, + "probability": 0.2303, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", - "probability": 0.3395, + "probability": 0.33840000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $680 billion", - "probability": 0.2762, + "probability": 0.2874, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "56", - "numforecasters": "54", + "numforecasts": "57", + "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -259,8 +259,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "96", - "numforecasters": "87", + "numforecasts": "97", + "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -280,8 +280,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "148", - "numforecasters": "125", + "numforecasts": "149", + "numforecasters": "126", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -589,8 +589,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "116", - "numforecasters": "80", + "numforecasts": "117", + "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -601,22 +601,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Zero", - "probability": 0.337, + "probability": 0.3477, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "One", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Two or more", - "probability": 0.293, + "probability": 0.2882, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "92", - "numforecasters": "81", + "numforecasts": "93", + "numforecasters": "82", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -672,7 +672,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "274", + "numforecasts": "275", "numforecasters": "181", "stars": 3 }, @@ -684,27 +684,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before February 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.0379, + "probability": 0.0375, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive", - "probability": 0.107, + "probability": 0.1058, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.2407, + "probability": 0.23800000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.6144, + "probability": 0.6187, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "203", - "numforecasters": "127", + "numforecasts": "204", + "numforecasters": "128", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -787,17 +787,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "162", - "numforecasters": "124", + "numforecasts": "163", + "numforecasters": "125", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -844,32 +844,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 675", - "probability": 0.4596, + "probability": 0.4869, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2688, + "probability": 0.2659, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825", - "probability": 0.1474, + "probability": 0.1394, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900", - "probability": 0.08220000000000001, + "probability": 0.07139999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 900", - "probability": 0.042, + "probability": 0.0365, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "120", - "numforecasters": "72", + "numforecasts": "122", + "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv b/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv index 4b88df8..b51963f 100644 --- a/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv +++ b/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ "title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars" -"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 +"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported as of 31 March 2021?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.The outcome will be determined based on reporting provided by Johns Hopkins of total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US through and including 31 March 2021.","[{""name"":""Fewer than 360,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 360,000 and 410,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 410,000 but less than 470,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 470,000 and 540,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 540,000"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 "As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as ""next waves"" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.","[{""name"":""Less than 275,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 300,000 but less than 350,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 -"How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., here, here, here). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.","[{""name"":""Fewer than 200 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 +"How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., here, here, here). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.","[{""name"":""Fewer than 200 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 billion"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",,"[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 -"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. The FDA has authorized Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here and here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).","[{""name"":""Before 1 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 -"When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been criticized for being slow. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's Robert Koch Institut [in German]. Click on the first link under ""Daten"" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named ""Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx""), see the ""Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]"" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column ""Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen"" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row ""Gesamt"" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial.","[{""name"":""Before 1 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 November 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 -"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is pushing to execute its plan. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the UK government. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 -"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to recover from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 -"What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The Games of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in Tokyo. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been postponed to 23 July 2021. Public opinion in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.","[{""name"":""The Games will begin"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be postponed again by more than a day"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be cancelled"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 +"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. The FDA has authorized Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here and here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).","[{""name"":""Before 1 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 +"When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been criticized for being slow. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's Robert Koch Institut [in German]. Click on the first link under ""Daten"" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named ""Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx""), see the ""Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]"" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column ""Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen"" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row ""Gesamt"" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial.","[{""name"":""Before 1 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 November 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 +"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is pushing to execute its plan. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the UK government. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 +"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to recover from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 +"What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The Games of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in Tokyo. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been postponed to 23 July 2021. Public opinion in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.","[{""name"":""The Games will begin"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be postponed again by more than a day"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be cancelled"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","In its 2020 report, The Conference Board reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed board members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices report. ","[{""name"":""Less than 23%"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 23% and 27%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 27%"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 -"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.","[{""name"":""Lower by more than 8%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive "",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% "",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 4%"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 -"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","Interest in sustainable sector investment has been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using data from Morningstar for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.","[{""name"":""At or below 2020 levels"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 100%"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 100%"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 +"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.","[{""name"":""Lower by more than 8%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive "",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% "",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 4%"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 +"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","Interest in sustainable sector investment has been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using data from Morningstar for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.","[{""name"":""At or below 2020 levels"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 100%"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 100%"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 -"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the ONS reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.","[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 \ No newline at end of file +"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the ONS reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.","[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json index 3f80fad..6ddf27c 100644 --- a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json +++ b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json @@ -7,12 +7,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -119,7 +119,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -129,7 +129,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 1.6 billion", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -181,12 +181,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -215,22 +215,22 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 November 2021", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -249,17 +249,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -278,12 +278,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -312,7 +312,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "The Games will begin", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -322,7 +322,7 @@ }, { "name": "The Games will be cancelled", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -360,7 +360,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lower by more than 8%", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -380,7 +380,7 @@ }, { "name": "Higher by more than 4%", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -399,12 +399,12 @@ }, { "name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher by more than 100%", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -457,12 +457,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { diff --git a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv index 76254d5..ee5067a 100644 --- a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv +++ b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv @@ -1,299 +1,336 @@ "title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars" +"Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1967-who-will-win-the-democratic-party-primary-for-the-new-york-city-mayoral-election","Good Judgment Open","Several Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to be the next mayor of New York City ([NBC New York](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crowded-democratic-primary-field-vies-for-nyc-mayors-job/2895362/), [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_New_York,_New_York_(2021))). The primaries, which will be held on 22 June 2021, will be the first to use ranked-choice voting ([Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-mayoral-primaries-set-for-june-11607951847), [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-were-watching-in-the-new-york-city-mayoral-race/)). +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","4","4",3 +"What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1969-what-will-be-the-gross-proceeds-for-special-purpose-acquisition-company-spac-ipo-transactions-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","SPACs have seen rapid growth as an alternative to conventional initial public offerings (IPOs) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/22303457/spacs-explained-stock-market-ipo-draftkings), [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/21/03/20158072/spacs-attack-weekly-recap-looking-back-on-5-deals-rumors-and-headline-news)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as reported by SPACInsider on 7 January 2022 ([SPACInsider](https://spacinsider.com/stats/)). For 2020, gross proceeds from SPAC IPO transactions totaled 83,334.7 million dollars, or $83.3347 billion. +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Less than $100 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""$180 billion or more"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1","1",3 +"At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1970-at-close-of-business-on-28-july-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 27-28 July 2021. +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","3","3",3 +"What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1968-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which historically has been predictive of popular unrest, has been climbing in recent months ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1372486/icode/), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/global-food-prices-coronavirus-protests-9d81f4c6-7665-4aa5-9250-a5b670efdb30.html), [Slate](https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html)). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in January 2022, typically released in the first week of the month ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/)). +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Less than 100.0"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110.0 but less than 120.0"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 130.0"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1","1",3 "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for ""All items"" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%. -","[{""name"":""Lower than 1.7%"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher than 3.1%"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","32","26",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Lower than 1.7%"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher than 3.1%"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","46","36",3 "Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1965-which-film-will-win-the-2021-oscar-for-best-motion-picture-of-the-year","Good Judgment Open","The 93rd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)). -","[{""name"":""The Father"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Judas and the Black Messiah"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mank"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Minari"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nomadland"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Promising Young Woman"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sound of Metal"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Trial of the Chicago 7"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A tie or other outcome"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","27","23",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""The Father"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Judas and the Black Messiah"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mank"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Minari"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nomadland"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Promising Young Woman"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sound of Metal"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Trial of the Chicago 7"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A tie or other outcome"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","41","33",3 "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1966-which-film-will-win-the-2020-oscar-for-directing","Good Judgment Open","The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)). -","[{""name"":""Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mank (David Fincher)"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A tie or other outcome"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","22","20",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mank (David Fincher)"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A tie or other outcome"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","29","24",3 "Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","76","55",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","86","62",3 "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). -","[{""name"":""Fewer than 14.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19.0 million"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","98","79",3 +","[{""name"":""Fewer than 14.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19.0 million"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","110","85",3 "What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)). -","[{""name"":""Less than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $55 billion"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","51","48",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Less than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $55 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","58","52",3 "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","60","52",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","70","57",3 "What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. -","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","54","36",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","57","37",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km","Good Judgment Open","Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. -","[{""name"":""Yes, only detonate a nuclear device"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only launch an ICBM"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","112","72",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Yes, only detonate a nuclear device"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only launch an ICBM"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","117","76",3 "Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","A Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice ""is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker"" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","47","33",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","48","33",3 "How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021. -","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""550,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","125","55",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""550,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","130","57",3 "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' ""COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries"" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, ""previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed"" and ""previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,"" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are ""previous day"" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click ""Export"" for file download options). -","[{""name"":""Fewer than 15,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","92","38",3 +","[{""name"":""Fewer than 15,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","98","38",3 "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. -","[{""name"":""Fewer than 100,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""900,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","246","81",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Fewer than 100,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""900,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","270","84",3 "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021.  -","[{""name"":""Fewer than 70,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 115,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","364","124",3 +","[{""name"":""Fewer than 70,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 115,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","390","125",3 "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. -","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","230","72",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","248","74",3 "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the ""Data for all countries"" spreadsheet under the ""Excel file"" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (""Share of GDP sheet,"" cell BU99). +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","128","73",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","129","74",3 "Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts","Good Judgment Open","China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)). +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). ","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","72","40",3 "Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations","Good Judgment Open","Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","464","355",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","471","357",3 "For how many weeks will Adam Grant's ""Think Again"" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Author Adam Grant's latest book, ""Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,"" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)). +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count. -","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 8"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 13"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14 and 18"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","338","252",3 +","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 8"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 13"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14 and 18"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","347","254",3 "Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","356","311",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","371","314",3 "In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law","Good Judgment Open","The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","211","181",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","212","182",3 "How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021","Good Judgment Open","With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks. -","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","251","182",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","257","185",3 "What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721. -","[{""name"":""Less than $0.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","67","24",3 +","[{""name"":""Less than $0.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","69","24",3 "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)). -","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","152","89",3 +","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","158","91",3 "What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)). -","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","125","50",3 +","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","132","51",3 "Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself. -","[{""name"":""Yes, and Newsom will be recalled"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","122","55",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes, and Newsom will be recalled"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","124","55",3 "Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)). -","[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","472","322",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","485","329",3 "Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","71","45",3 "Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp","Good Judgment Open","Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","160","76",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","166","76",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa","Good Judgment Open","Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","185","74",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","188","74",3 "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022","Good Judgment Open","On 1 February 2021, the military (aka ""Defence Services"") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services ""shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary"" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)). NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close ""Yes"" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","87","50",3 "Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an ""act of domestic terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","210","114",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","213","114",3 "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","175","135",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","179","136",3 "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a ""space tourist flight"" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)). -","[{""name"":""Yes, only SpaceX"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Virgin Galactic"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","169","119",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes, only SpaceX"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Virgin Galactic"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","170","119",3 "Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","151","83",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","152","83",3 "Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship","Good Judgment Open","The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)). -","[{""name"":""Brooklyn Nets"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Clippers"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Lakers"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Milwaukee Bucks"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another team"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","133","53",3 +","[{""name"":""Brooklyn Nets"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Clippers"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Lakers"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Milwaukee Bucks"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another team"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","135","53",3 "Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities","Good Judgment Open","Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","146","85",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","147","85",3 "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","112","73",3 "Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","267","109",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","272","109",3 "How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies. ","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","239","141",3 "What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the ""Cumulative Gross"" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. -","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than $1 billion"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.75 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","141","74",3 +","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than $1 billion"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.75 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","143","74",3 "Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled","Good Judgment Open","Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","93","55",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","94","55",3 "At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021. -","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","86","64",3 +","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","89","64",3 "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","200","85",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","203","85",3 "Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","144","88",3 "Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather ""lying low"" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","249","145",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","252","146",3 "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un ""uno a uno"" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. -Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0b68676a79626d62686a7f626465784b6c64646f617e6f6c666e657f2568646634787e69616e687f365a7e6e787f6264652e393b48676a79626d62686a7f626465). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","372","192",3 +Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#17747b76657e717e7476637e78796457707878737d6273707a7279633974787a286462757d7274632a46627264637e7879322527547b76657e717e7476637e7879). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","377","192",3 "When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname."" -","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","355","72",3 +","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","367","72",3 "How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. -","[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","419","107",3 +","[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","436","108",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","156","115",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","157","115",3 "Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election","Good Judgment Open","The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","252","142",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","260","142",3 "Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021? Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","83","49",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","84","49",3 "How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open","Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question. -","[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","168","89",3 +","[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","170","89",3 "Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament","Good Judgment Open","Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended. -","[{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","75","36",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","76","36",3 "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election","Good Judgment Open","The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count. -","[{""name"":""Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 18 September 2021"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","181","79",3 +","[{""name"":""Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 18 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","188","79",3 "Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","97","44",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","100","44",3 "What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day ""Market Cap"" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)). -","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","230","67",3 +","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","233","68",3 "Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","163","64",3 "Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial. -","[{""name"":""Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","115","66",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","116","66",3 "Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open","An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count. NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","267","136",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","268","136",3 "Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","247","90",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","251","90",3 "Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","107","37",3 "When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open","AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)). -","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","186","67",3 +","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","188","67",3 "At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open","On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see ""MARKET CAP""). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)). -","[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","206","106",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","207","106",3 "Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open","Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol? Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. -Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#80e3ece1f2e9e6e9e3e1f4e9efeef3c0e7efefe4eaf5e4e7ede5eef4aee3efedbff3f5e2eae5e3f4bdd1f5e5f3f4e9efeea5b2b0c3ece1f2e9e6e9e3e1f4e9efee). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","[{""name"":""Nicaragua"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""St. Lucia"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will be a draw"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","194","124",3 +Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#6f0c030e1d0609060c0e1b0600011c2f0800000b051a0b08020a011b410c0002501c1a0d050a0c1b523e1a0a1c1b0600014a5d5f2c030e1d0609060c0e1b060001). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","[{""name"":""Nicaragua"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""St. Lucia"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will be a draw"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","198","125",3 "What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)). -","[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","272","74",3 +","[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","275","74",3 "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","218","86",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","220","86",3 "Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open","Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)). -","[{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be an election before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","338","143",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be an election before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","342","144",3 "At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021. -","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","107","76",3 +","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","108","76",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open","The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","168","81",3 "Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open","The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","177","61",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","178","61",3 "Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement. -","[{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","459","194",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","460","194",3 "Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count. -","[{""name"":""Yes, only by the FDA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only by the EMA"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","427","211",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes, only by the FDA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only by the EMA"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","431","211",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open","Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question. Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","276","146",3 "Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","357","226",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","359","226",3 "Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open","Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","283","103",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","285","103",3 "Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research","Good Judgment Open","Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting ""Region"" to ""Europe,"" and ""Type"" to ""Monthly."" After selecting a particular monthly report, see ""Occupancy"" under the ""Euro Constant currency"" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020)) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","426","108",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","429","108",3 "Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open","Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)). -","[{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Kovrig"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","328","104",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Kovrig"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","332","104",3 "Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a ""Yes"" resolution. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","247","125",3 "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open","While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count. ","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","259","97",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open","The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","84","44",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","85","44",3 "Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open","The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the ""Bank Rate"" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)).  -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","400","205",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","402","205",3 "Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open","Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file ""Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change."" See the row designated ""10"" under ""SUMLEV"" and ""United States"" under ""NAME."" The relevant data are titled ""INTERNATIONALMIG[year]."" For methodological information, see the ""Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population"" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","108","60",3 "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open","Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","81","31",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","83","31",3 "What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)). -","[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","254","43",3 +","[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","256","43",3 "Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open","Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)). -","[{""name"":""Yes, only for president"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only for parliament"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, for both president and parliament"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","136","30",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes, only for president"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only for parliament"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, for both president and parliament"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","140","30",3 "Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, constant prices"" and Units as ""Percent change."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)). The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","437","203",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","440","203",3 "Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open","Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)). NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin. -","[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","202","81",3 +","[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","207","81",3 "Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","566","200",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","573","200",3 "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as ""Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter."" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021. NOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth. -","[{""name"":""Less than 5.0%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.0%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","543","247",3 +","[{""name"":""Less than 5.0%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.0%"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","545","248",3 "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)). -","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1702","587",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1713","589",3 "How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under ""Shareholder Deck"" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021. ","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""350,000 or more"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","512","215",3 "Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open","Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","329","204",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","331","204",3 "Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)). This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","536","242",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","543","245",3 "In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open","The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its ""Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts"" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","227","125",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","228","126",3 "Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open","A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","319","185",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","320","185",3 "On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open","On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","315","165",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","316","165",3 "When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). ","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","297","88",3 "Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open","Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","230","58",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","232","58",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open","As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","319","169",3 "Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open","Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the ""Annual Reports on Form 10-K"" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","270","107",3 "How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). -","[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1419","207",3 +","[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1426","207",3 "Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","287","64",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","289","64",3 "Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir","Good Judgment Open","Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","205","63",3 "Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct","Good Judgment Open","The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)). NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests. -","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","153","43",3 +","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","155","44",3 "Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open","Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.  ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","130","54",3 "When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count. -","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","551","152",3 +","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","555","152",3 "For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","737","156",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","745","156",3 "What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)). -","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","483","220",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","488","222",3 "What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million. -","[{""name"":""Less than 1.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 million"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","482","93",3 +","[{""name"":""Less than 1.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 million"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","483","93",3 "When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open","Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)). -","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","461","68",3 +","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","462","69",3 "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","210","65",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","211","65",3 "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","414","159",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","416","159",3 "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open","The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)). -","[{""name"":""England"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Italy"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Spain"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another country"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","356","114",3 +","[{""name"":""England"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Italy"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Spain"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another country"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","366","114",3 "When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open","Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)). ","[{""name"":""Before 19 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 24 May 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","687","202",3 "Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open","Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1157","454",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1160","454",3 "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","387","160",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","388","160",3 "Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open","Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, ""voting system"" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","333","153",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","335","153",3 "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","718","166",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","722","166",3 "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. -","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","842","167",3 +","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","849","167",3 "In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open","To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","207","79",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","208","79",3 "In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","325","76",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","326","76",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open","Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","637","184",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","642","185",3 "How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)). NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed ""as of,"" so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021. NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel. ","[{""name"":""2 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or more"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","473","96",3 "When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open","As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the ""Next Generation EU"" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst & Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial. -","[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","287","59",3 +","[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","294","61",3 "How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open","Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. ","[{""name"":""Fewer than 25,000"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","372","120",3 "Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open","In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution. -","[{""name"":""Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","301","108",3 +","[{""name"":""Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","302","108",3 "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery","Good Judgment Open","Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count. NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered ""powered"" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a ""passenger vehicle"" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). ","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1 or 2"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or 4"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","280","80",3 "When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open","As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta. -","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","860","297",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","866","299",3 "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open","Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)). -Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#72111e13001b141b1113061b1d1c0132151d1d16180716151f171c065c111d1f4d010710181711064f23071701061b1d1c574042311e13001b141b1113061b1d1c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","294","138",3 +Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#23404f42514a454a4042574a4c4d5063444c4c47495647444e464d570d404c4e1c505641494640571e72564650574a4c4d061113604f42514a454a4042574a4c4d). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","295","138",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open","In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)). -Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#97f4fbf6e5fef1fef4f6e3fef8f9e4d7f0f8f8f3fde2f3f0faf2f9e3b9f4f8faa8e4e2f5fdf2f4e3aac6e2f2e4e3fef8f9b2a5a7d4fbf6e5fef1fef4f6e3fef8f9). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","648","142",3 +Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c9aaa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7ba89aea6a6ada3bcadaea4aca7bde7aaa6a4f6babcaba3acaabdf498bcacbabda0a6a7ecfbf98aa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","652","142",3 "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open","Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to ""face criminal charges"" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense. @@ -304,31 +341,31 @@ This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjop "How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the ""Advanced Filters"" tab.  First select ""Location"" on the left and set ""Country"" to be ""United States"" while keeping ""State/Territory"" to be ""All."" Then select ""Fuel"" on the left. Under ""Filter by Fuel Type"" select ""Electric"" and set ""Charger types"" to be only ""DC Fast"" while keeping ""Connectors"" and ""Networks"" to be ""All."" ","[{""name"":""Fewer than 5,300"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,500"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","236","46",3 "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)). -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#bcdfd0ddced5dad5dfddc8d5d3d2cffcdbd3d3d8d6c9d8dbd1d9d2c892dfd3d183cfc9ded6d9dfc881edc9d9cfc8d5d3d2998e8cffd0ddced5dad5dfddc8d5d3d2). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1182","180",3 +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5c3f303d2e353a353f3d283533322f1c3b3333383629383b31393228723f3331632f293e36393f28610d29392f28353332796e6c1f303d2e353a353f3d28353332). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1185","181",3 "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open","Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e88b84899a818e818b899c8187869ba88f87878c829d8c8f858d869cc68b8785d79b9d8a828d8b9cd5b99d8d9b9c818786cddad8ab84899a818e818b899c818786). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","2034","832",3 +To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). +","[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","2054","838",3 "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open","Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a ""bump in the road"" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided. -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#76151a17041f101f1517021f19180536111919121c0312111b1318025815191b490503141c1315024b27031305021f1918534446351a17041f101f1517021f1918). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","243","110",3 +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b5d6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadbc6f5d2dadad1dfc0d1d2d8d0dbc19bd6dad88ac6c0d7dfd0d6c188e4c0d0c6c1dcdadb908785f6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadb). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","244","110",3 "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#44272825362d222d2725302d2b2a3704232b2b202e31202329212a306a272b297b3731262e2127307915312137302d2b2a617674072825362d222d2725302d2b2a). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1072","463",3 +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e0838c8192898689838194898f8e93a0878f8f848a9584878d858e94ce838f8ddf9395828a858394ddb195859394898f8ec5d2d0a38c8192898689838194898f8e). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1075","463",3 "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open","Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. ","[{""name"":""Fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2,200,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","293","82",3 "How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph ""Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)"" when the filter for ""Charger type"" is set to ""Fast (>22kW)"" and the filters at the top of the page are set to ""European Union"" and ""2022"". ","[{""name"":""Less than 25,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than 35,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 40,000"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","285","75",3 "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel","Good Judgment Open","Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count. -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#31525d5043585758525045585e5f4271565e5e555b4455565c545f451f525e5c0e4244535b5452450c6044544245585e5f140301725d5043585758525045585e5f). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#f5969994879c939c9694819c9a9b86b5929a9a919f80919298909b81db969a98ca8680979f909681c8a4809086819c9a9bd0c7c5b69994879c939c9694819c9a9b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). ","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","396","218",3 "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","190","88",3 "What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was ""a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh"" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)). -","[{""name"":""Less than $80 per kWh"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 per kWh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","284","97",3 +","[{""name"":""Less than $80 per kWh"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 per kWh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","286","97",3 "What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open","Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV & PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources. -","[{""name"":""Less than 2.5%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.5%"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","430","148",3 +","[{""name"":""Less than 2.5%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.5%"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","432","148",3 "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","266","97",3 diff --git a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json index ba66aa4..01dc125 100644 --- a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json +++ b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json @@ -1,45 +1,174 @@ [ + { + "title": "Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1967-who-will-win-the-democratic-party-primary-for-the-new-york-city-mayoral-election", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Several Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to be the next mayor of New York City ([NBC New York](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crowded-democratic-primary-field-vies-for-nyc-mayors-job/2895362/), [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_New_York,_New_York_(2021))). The primaries, which will be held on 22 June 2021, will be the first to use ranked-choice voting ([Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-mayoral-primaries-set-for-june-11607951847), [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-were-watching-in-the-new-york-city-mayoral-race/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Eric Adams", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Scott Stringer", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Maya Wiley", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Yang", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Someone else", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "4", + "numforecasters": "4", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1969-what-will-be-the-gross-proceeds-for-special-purpose-acquisition-company-spac-ipo-transactions-in-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "SPACs have seen rapid growth as an alternative to conventional initial public offerings (IPOs) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/22303457/spacs-explained-stock-market-ipo-draftkings), [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/21/03/20158072/spacs-attack-weekly-recap-looking-back-on-5-deals-rumors-and-headline-news)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as reported by SPACInsider on 7 January 2022 ([SPACInsider](https://spacinsider.com/stats/)). For 2020, gross proceeds from SPAC IPO transactions totaled 83,334.7 million dollars, or $83.3347 billion.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than $100 billion", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$180 billion or more", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "1", + "numforecasters": "1", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1970-at-close-of-business-on-28-july-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 27-28 July 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lower", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Same", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "3", + "numforecasters": "3", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1968-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-december-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which historically has been predictive of popular unrest, has been climbing in recent months ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1372486/icode/), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/global-food-prices-coronavirus-protests-9d81f4c6-7665-4aa5-9250-a5b670efdb30.html), [Slate](https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html)). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in January 2022, typically released in the first week of the month ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 100.0", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 110.0 but less than 120.0", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 130.0", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "1", + "numforecasters": "1", + "stars": 3 + }, { "title": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.\n", + "description": "The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Lower than 1.7%", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 3.1%", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "32", - "numforecasters": "26", + "numforecasts": "46", + "numforecasters": "36", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1965-which-film-will-win-the-2021-oscar-for-best-motion-picture-of-the-year", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The 93rd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\n", + "description": "The 93rd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "The Father", @@ -48,7 +177,7 @@ }, { "name": "Judas and the Black Messiah", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58,7 +187,7 @@ }, { "name": "Minari", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -87,15 +216,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "27", - "numforecasters": "23", + "numforecasts": "41", + "numforecasters": "33", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1966-which-film-will-win-the-2020-oscar-for-directing", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\n", + "description": "The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)", @@ -109,17 +238,17 @@ }, { "name": "Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -128,29 +257,29 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "22", - "numforecasters": "20", + "numforecasts": "29", + "numforecasters": "24", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).\n", + "description": "Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "76", - "numforecasters": "55", + "numforecasts": "86", + "numforecasters": "62", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -166,17 +295,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -185,81 +314,81 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "98", - "numforecasters": "79", + "numforecasts": "110", + "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)).\n", + "description": "Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than $25 billion", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $55 billion", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "51", - "numforecasters": "48", + "numforecasts": "58", + "numforecasters": "52", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)).\n", + "description": "After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "60", - "numforecasters": "52", + "numforecasts": "70", + "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.\n", + "description": "Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than $75 billion", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -279,7 +408,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than $150 billion", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -288,15 +417,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "54", - "numforecasters": "36", + "numforecasts": "57", + "numforecasters": "37", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.\n", + "description": "Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device", @@ -305,7 +434,7 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -315,19 +444,19 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "112", - "numforecasters": "72", + "numforecasts": "117", + "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "A Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice \"is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker\" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)).\n", + "description": "A Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice \"is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker\" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -340,7 +469,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "47", + "numforecasts": "48", "numforecasters": "33", "stars": 3 }, @@ -348,16 +477,16 @@ "title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021.\n", + "description": "On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 150,000", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -381,15 +510,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "125", - "numforecasters": "55", + "numforecasts": "130", + "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\nNOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click \"Export\" for file download options).\n", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click \"Export\" for file download options).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 15,000", @@ -398,12 +527,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -442,7 +571,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "92", + "numforecasts": "98", "numforecasters": "38", "stars": 3 }, @@ -450,7 +579,7 @@ "title": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\n", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 100,000", @@ -464,17 +593,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -503,15 +632,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "246", - "numforecasters": "81", + "numforecasts": "270", + "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\nNOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021. \n", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 70,000,000", @@ -540,17 +669,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -569,15 +698,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "364", - "numforecasters": "124", + "numforecasts": "390", + "numforecasters": "125", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\n", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 4,000", @@ -591,12 +720,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -630,15 +759,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "230", - "numforecasters": "72", + "numforecasts": "248", + "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the \"Data for all countries\" spreadsheet under the \"Excel file\" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (\"Share of GDP sheet,\" cell BU99).\nNOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.\n", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the \"Data for all countries\" spreadsheet under the \"Excel file\" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (\"Share of GDP sheet,\" cell BU99).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -651,15 +780,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "128", - "numforecasters": "73", + "numforecasts": "129", + "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)).\n", + "description": "China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "0", @@ -685,7 +814,7 @@ "title": "Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)).\n", + "description": "Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -698,15 +827,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "464", - "numforecasters": "355", + "numforecasts": "471", + "numforecasters": "357", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "For how many weeks will Adam Grant's \"Think Again\" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Author Adam Grant's latest book, \"Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,\" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)).\nNOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count.\n", + "description": "Author Adam Grant's latest book, \"Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,\" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 4", @@ -720,12 +849,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 9 and 13", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 14 and 18", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -734,15 +863,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "338", - "numforecasters": "252", + "numforecasts": "347", + "numforecasters": "254", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).\n", + "description": "The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -755,36 +884,36 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "356", - "numforecasters": "311", + "numforecasts": "371", + "numforecasters": "314", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)).\n", + "description": "The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "211", - "numforecasters": "181", + "numforecasts": "212", + "numforecasters": "182", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.\n", + "description": "With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 8,000,000", @@ -793,7 +922,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -803,7 +932,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -812,8 +941,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "251", - "numforecasters": "182", + "numforecasts": "257", + "numforecasters": "185", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -829,12 +958,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -848,7 +977,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "67", + "numforecasts": "69", "numforecasters": "24", "stars": 3 }, @@ -860,12 +989,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.4%", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -884,8 +1013,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "152", - "numforecasters": "89", + "numforecasts": "158", + "numforecasters": "91", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -901,17 +1030,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -920,8 +1049,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "125", - "numforecasters": "50", + "numforecasts": "132", + "numforecasters": "51", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -946,7 +1075,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "122", + "numforecasts": "124", "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 3 }, @@ -954,7 +1083,7 @@ "title": "Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)).\n", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less", @@ -972,8 +1101,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "472", - "numforecasters": "322", + "numforecasts": "485", + "numforecasters": "329", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1005,16 +1134,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "160", + "numforecasts": "166", "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1026,16 +1155,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "185", + "numforecasts": "188", "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1077,7 +1206,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "210", + "numforecasts": "213", "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1098,8 +1227,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "175", - "numforecasters": "135", + "numforecasts": "179", + "numforecasters": "136", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1110,7 +1239,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only SpaceX", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1125,11 +1254,11 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "169", + "numforecasts": "170", "numforecasters": "119", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1150,7 +1279,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "151", + "numforecasts": "152", "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1177,12 +1306,12 @@ }, { "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another team", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1191,7 +1320,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "133", + "numforecasts": "135", "numforecasters": "53", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1203,16 +1332,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "146", + "numforecasts": "147", "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1254,7 +1383,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "267", + "numforecasts": "272", "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1302,12 +1431,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1321,7 +1450,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "141", + "numforecasts": "143", "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1342,7 +1471,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "93", + "numforecasts": "94", "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1368,7 +1497,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "86", + "numforecasts": "89", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1380,16 +1509,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "200", + "numforecasts": "203", "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1431,15 +1560,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "249", - "numforecasters": "145", + "numforecasts": "252", + "numforecasters": "146", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0b68676a79626d62686a7f626465784b6c64646f617e6f6c666e657f2568646634787e69616e687f365a7e6e787f6264652e393b48676a79626d62686a7f626465). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#17747b76657e717e7476637e78796457707878737d6273707a7279633974787a286462757d7274632a46627264637e7879322527547b76657e717e7476637e7879). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -1452,7 +1581,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "372", + "numforecasts": "377", "numforecasters": "192", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1474,21 +1603,21 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 June 2021", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "355", + "numforecasts": "367", "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1500,17 +1629,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "7 or fewer", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 8 and 14", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 15 and 21", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1524,8 +1653,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "419", - "numforecasters": "107", + "numforecasts": "436", + "numforecasters": "108", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1545,7 +1674,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "156", + "numforecasts": "157", "numforecasters": "115", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1557,16 +1686,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "252", + "numforecasts": "260", "numforecasters": "142", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1578,16 +1707,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "83", + "numforecasts": "84", "numforecasters": "49", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1618,7 +1747,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "168", + "numforecasts": "170", "numforecasters": "89", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1644,7 +1773,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "75", + "numforecasts": "76", "numforecasters": "36", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1656,21 +1785,21 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 18 September 2021", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "181", + "numforecasts": "188", "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1691,7 +1820,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "97", + "numforecasts": "100", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1708,7 +1837,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1718,7 +1847,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1727,8 +1856,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "230", - "numforecasters": "67", + "numforecasts": "233", + "numforecasters": "68", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1774,7 +1903,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "115", + "numforecasts": "116", "numforecasters": "66", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1795,7 +1924,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "267", + "numforecasts": "268", "numforecasters": "136", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1816,7 +1945,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "247", + "numforecasts": "251", "numforecasters": "90", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1863,7 +1992,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "186", + "numforecasts": "188", "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1889,7 +2018,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "206", + "numforecasts": "207", "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1897,26 +2026,26 @@ "title": "Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#80e3ece1f2e9e6e9e3e1f4e9efeef3c0e7efefe4eaf5e4e7ede5eef4aee3efedbff3f5e2eae5e3f4bdd1f5e5f3f4e9efeea5b2b0c3ece1f2e9e6e9e3e1f4e9efee). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n", + "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#6f0c030e1d0609060c0e1b0600011c2f0800000b051a0b08020a011b410c0002501c1a0d050a0c1b523e1a0a1c1b0600014a5d5f2c030e1d0609060c0e1b060001). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Nicaragua", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "St. Lucia", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "There will be a draw", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "194", - "numforecasters": "124", + "numforecasts": "198", + "numforecasters": "125", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1932,17 +2061,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1951,7 +2080,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "272", + "numforecasts": "275", "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1972,7 +2101,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "218", + "numforecasts": "220", "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1998,8 +2127,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "338", - "numforecasters": "143", + "numforecasts": "342", + "numforecasters": "144", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2024,7 +2153,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "107", + "numforecasts": "108", "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2066,7 +2195,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "177", + "numforecasts": "178", "numforecasters": "61", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2078,12 +2207,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2092,7 +2221,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "459", + "numforecasts": "460", "numforecasters": "194", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2109,7 +2238,7 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only by the EMA", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2119,11 +2248,11 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "427", + "numforecasts": "431", "numforecasters": "211", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2165,7 +2294,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "357", + "numforecasts": "359", "numforecasters": "226", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2186,7 +2315,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "283", + "numforecasts": "285", "numforecasters": "103", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2207,7 +2336,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "426", + "numforecasts": "429", "numforecasters": "108", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2238,7 +2367,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "328", + "numforecasts": "332", "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2316,7 +2445,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "84", + "numforecasts": "85", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2337,7 +2466,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "400", + "numforecasts": "402", "numforecasters": "205", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2379,7 +2508,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "81", + "numforecasts": "83", "numforecasters": "31", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2401,12 +2530,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than $2.50 but less than $3.00", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2415,7 +2544,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "254", + "numforecasts": "256", "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2446,7 +2575,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "136", + "numforecasts": "140", "numforecasters": "30", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2467,7 +2596,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "437", + "numforecasts": "440", "numforecasters": "203", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2479,7 +2608,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2499,7 +2628,7 @@ }, { "name": "Another candidate", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2508,7 +2637,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "202", + "numforecasts": "207", "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2529,7 +2658,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "566", + "numforecasts": "573", "numforecasters": "200", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2556,24 +2685,24 @@ }, { "name": "Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 8.0%", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "543", - "numforecasters": "247", + "numforecasts": "545", + "numforecasters": "248", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).\n", + "description": "The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Zero", @@ -2592,17 +2721,17 @@ }, { "name": "3", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or more", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1702", - "numforecasters": "587", + "numforecasts": "1713", + "numforecasters": "589", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2653,7 +2782,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "329", + "numforecasts": "331", "numforecasters": "204", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2674,8 +2803,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "536", - "numforecasters": "242", + "numforecasts": "543", + "numforecasters": "245", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2695,8 +2824,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "227", - "numforecasters": "125", + "numforecasts": "228", + "numforecasters": "126", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2716,7 +2845,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "319", + "numforecasts": "320", "numforecasters": "185", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2737,7 +2866,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "315", + "numforecasts": "316", "numforecasters": "165", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2794,7 +2923,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "230", + "numforecasts": "232", "numforecasters": "58", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2863,16 +2992,16 @@ }, { "name": "7 or 8", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "9 or more", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1419", + "numforecasts": "1426", "numforecasters": "207", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2893,7 +3022,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "287", + "numforecasts": "289", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2941,17 +3070,17 @@ }, { "name": "3", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or more", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "153", - "numforecasters": "43", + "numforecasts": "155", + "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3007,7 +3136,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "551", + "numforecasts": "555", "numforecasters": "152", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3019,16 +3148,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "737", + "numforecasts": "745", "numforecasters": "156", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3036,7 +3165,7 @@ "title": "What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).\n", + "description": "As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.00%", @@ -3045,7 +3174,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3055,7 +3184,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3064,8 +3193,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "483", - "numforecasters": "220", + "numforecasts": "488", + "numforecasters": "222", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3100,7 +3229,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "482", + "numforecasts": "483", "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3131,8 +3260,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "461", - "numforecasters": "68", + "numforecasts": "462", + "numforecasters": "69", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3152,7 +3281,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "210", + "numforecasts": "211", "numforecasters": "65", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3173,7 +3302,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "414", + "numforecasts": "416", "numforecasters": "159", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3195,12 +3324,12 @@ }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Italy", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3219,7 +3348,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "356", + "numforecasts": "366", "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3276,7 +3405,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1157", + "numforecasts": "1160", "numforecasters": "454", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3297,7 +3426,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "387", + "numforecasts": "388", "numforecasters": "160", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3318,7 +3447,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "333", + "numforecasts": "335", "numforecasters": "153", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3339,7 +3468,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "718", + "numforecasts": "722", "numforecasters": "166", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3375,7 +3504,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "842", + "numforecasts": "849", "numforecasters": "167", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3396,7 +3525,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "207", + "numforecasts": "208", "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3417,7 +3546,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "325", + "numforecasts": "326", "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3438,8 +3567,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "637", - "numforecasters": "184", + "numforecasts": "642", + "numforecasters": "185", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3496,17 +3625,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 April 2021", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "287", - "numforecasters": "59", + "numforecasts": "294", + "numforecasters": "61", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3572,7 +3701,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "301", + "numforecasts": "302", "numforecasters": "108", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3616,7 +3745,7 @@ "title": "When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.\n", + "description": "As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 January 2021", @@ -3639,15 +3768,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "860", - "numforecasters": "297", + "numforecasts": "866", + "numforecasters": "299", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#72111e13001b141b1113061b1d1c0132151d1d16180716151f171c065c111d1f4d010710181711064f23071701061b1d1c574042311e13001b141b1113061b1d1c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#23404f42514a454a4042574a4c4d5063444c4c47495647444e464d570d404c4e1c505641494640571e72564650574a4c4d061113604f42514a454a4042574a4c4d). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -3660,7 +3789,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "294", + "numforecasts": "295", "numforecasters": "138", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3668,20 +3797,20 @@ "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#97f4fbf6e5fef1fef4f6e3fef8f9e4d7f0f8f8f3fde2f3f0faf2f9e3b9f4f8faa8e4e2f5fdf2f4e3aac6e2f2e4e3fef8f9b2a5a7d4fbf6e5fef1fef4f6e3fef8f9). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c9aaa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7ba89aea6a6ada3bcadaea4aca7bde7aaa6a4f6babcaba3acaabdf498bcacbabda0a6a7ecfbf98aa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "648", + "numforecasts": "652", "numforecasters": "142", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3792,7 +3921,7 @@ "title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#bcdfd0ddced5dad5dfddc8d5d3d2cffcdbd3d3d8d6c9d8dbd1d9d2c892dfd3d183cfc9ded6d9dfc881edc9d9cfc8d5d3d2998e8cffd0ddced5dad5dfddc8d5d3d2). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5c3f303d2e353a353f3d283533322f1c3b3333383629383b31393228723f3331632f293e36393f28610d29392f28353332796e6c1f303d2e353a353f3d28353332). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 2.5 million", @@ -3820,15 +3949,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1182", - "numforecasters": "180", + "numforecasts": "1185", + "numforecasters": "181", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e88b84899a818e818b899c8187869ba88f87878c829d8c8f858d869cc68b8785d79b9d8a828d8b9cd5b99d8d9b9c818786cddad8ab84899a818e818b899c818786). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, the Olympics only", @@ -3842,37 +3971,37 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "2034", - "numforecasters": "832", + "numforecasts": "2054", + "numforecasters": "838", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#76151a17041f101f1517021f19180536111919121c0312111b1318025815191b490503141c1315024b27031305021f1918534446351a17041f101f1517021f1918). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b5d6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadbc6f5d2dadad1dfc0d1d2d8d0dbc19bd6dad88ac6c0d7dfd0d6c188e4c0d0c6c1dcdadb908785f6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadb). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "243", + "numforecasts": "244", "numforecasters": "110", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3880,7 +4009,7 @@ "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#44272825362d222d2725302d2b2a3704232b2b202e31202329212a306a272b297b3731262e2127307915312137302d2b2a617674072825362d222d2725302d2b2a). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e0838c8192898689838194898f8e93a0878f8f848a9584878d858e94ce838f8ddf9395828a858394ddb195859394898f8ec5d2d0a38c8192898689838194898f8e). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -3893,7 +4022,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1072", + "numforecasts": "1075", "numforecasters": "463", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3973,7 +4102,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#31525d5043585758525045585e5f4271565e5e555b4455565c545f451f525e5c0e4244535b5452450c6044544245585e5f140301725d5043585758525045585e5f). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#f5969994879c939c9694819c9a9b86b5929a9a919f80919298909b81db969a98ca8680979f909681c8a4809086819c9a9bd0c7c5b69994879c939c9694819c9a9b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "0", @@ -4053,7 +4182,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "284", + "numforecasts": "286", "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3 }, @@ -4089,7 +4218,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "430", + "numforecasts": "432", "numforecasters": "148", "stars": 3 }, diff --git a/data/hypermind-questions.csv b/data/hypermind-questions.csv index ab8f331..de25d36 100644 --- a/data/hypermind-questions.csv +++ b/data/hypermind-questions.csv @@ -1,34 +1,34 @@ "title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars" -"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.","[{""name"":""Yes, more than 121"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, not more than 121"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.028571428571428567,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.047619047619047616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.15238095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5428571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.03809523809523809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.13333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9705882352941175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""In June, 2021 (as planned)"",""probability"":0.7647058823529411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Later in 2021"",""probability"":0.20588235294117646,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not in 2021"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H","[{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Japan"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same medals count"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World)","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.06930693069306931,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.26732673267326734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.36633663366336633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.28712871287128716,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","To be considered ""deadly"", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".","[{""name"":""Saad-Eddine El Othmani"",""probability"":0.15533980582524273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelilah Benkirane"",""probability"":0.07766990291262137,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else from PJD"",""probability"":0.01941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else not from PJD"",""probability"":0.7475728155339806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.14705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5490196078431372,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.1372549019607843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.6213592233009709,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.14563106796116507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.20388349514563106,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.02912621359223301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9801980198019803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""In June, 2021 (as planned)"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Later in 2021"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not in 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H","[{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.19801980198019803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Japan"",""probability"":0.7920792079207921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same medals count"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World)","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.09615384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.2884615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.29807692307692313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.3076923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","To be considered ""deadly"", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".","[{""name"":""Saad-Eddine El Othmani"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelilah Benkirane"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else from PJD"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else not from PJD"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.","[{""name"":""> 148 (more than currently)"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""128 (absolute majority) to 148 "",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""< 128"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.030303030303030304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696969696969697,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1176470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.","[{""name"":""Denis Sassou Nguesso"",""probability"":0.9428571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mathias Dzon"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.","[{""name"":""Idriss Déby Itno"",""probability"":0.951923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Saleh Kezabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Succès Masra"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...","[{""name"":""Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed"",""probability"":0.9313725490196079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abshir Aden Ferro"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharif Sheikh Ahmed"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.2830188679245283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.339622641509434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.12264150943396226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.2358490566037736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.","[{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.7017543859649122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another Likud politician"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another politician not from Likud"",""probability"":0.2807017543859649,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with this link","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.2653061224489796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.22448979591836735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.5102040816326531,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.19047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.6857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.028571428571428567,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.028571428571428567,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.057142857142857134,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.0625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.31250000000000006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.11458333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.09375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.41666666666666674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.8529411764705883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.10784313725490195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""In 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.2777777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.33333333333333337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.1388888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.23148148148148148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.","[{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another Likud politician"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another politician not from Likud"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with this link","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.2727272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.22222222222222224,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.5050505050505051,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.020202020202020204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.686868686868687,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.20202020202020204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.09090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.8461538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.10576923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""In 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.","[{""name"":""≥ 32,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 28,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.","[{""name"":""≥ 6,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 5,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"Will the new Bond film ""No Time to Die"" be released in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9504950495049505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04950495049504951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as ""Yes"" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"Will the new Bond film ""No Time to Die"" be released in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as ""Yes"" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9038461538461539,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09615384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind","This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?"" The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: diff --git a/data/hypermind-questions.json b/data/hypermind-questions.json index e6923df..3125045 100644 --- a/data/hypermind-questions.json +++ b/data/hypermind-questions.json @@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -82,57 +82,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.028571428571428567, + "probability": 0.02941176470588235, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pierre de Villiers", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.047619047619047616, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.15238095238095237, + "probability": 0.14705882352941177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.5428571428571428, + "probability": 0.5490196078431372, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Piolle", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another woman", - "probability": 0.03809523809523809, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another man", - "probability": 0.13333333333333333, + "probability": 0.1372549019607843, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -146,22 +146,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Macron and Le Pen", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.6213592233009709, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.14563106796116507, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.20388349514563106, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither of them", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02912621359223301, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -175,12 +175,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9705882352941175, + "probability": 0.9801980198019803, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -194,17 +194,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)", - "probability": 0.7647058823529411, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Later in 2021", - "probability": 0.20588235294117646, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not in 2021", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -218,17 +218,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19801980198019803, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Japan", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.7920792079207921, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Same medals count", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -257,32 +257,32 @@ }, { "name": "March 2021", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "April 2021", - "probability": 0.06930693069306931, + "probability": 0.09615384615384615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "May 2021", - "probability": 0.26732673267326734, + "probability": 0.2884615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "June 2021", - "probability": 0.36633663366336633, + "probability": 0.29807692307692313, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe after June 2021", - "probability": 0.28712871287128716, + "probability": 0.3076923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -296,12 +296,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -315,22 +315,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani", - "probability": 0.15533980582524273, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdelilah Benkirane", - "probability": 0.07766990291262137, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else from PJD", - "probability": 0.01941747572815534, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else not from PJD", - "probability": 0.7475728155339806, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -513,27 +513,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.2830188679245283, + "probability": 0.2777777777777778, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.339622641509434, + "probability": 0.33333333333333337, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.12264150943396226, + "probability": 0.1388888888888889, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.2358490566037736, + "probability": 0.23148148148148148, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -547,17 +547,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.7017543859649122, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another Likud politician", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another politician not from Likud", - "probability": 0.2807017543859649, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -571,17 +571,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Worse than the 2012 record", - "probability": 0.2653061224489796, + "probability": 0.2727272727272727, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012", - "probability": 0.22448979591836735, + "probability": 0.22222222222222224, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not worse than 2020", - "probability": 0.5102040816326531, + "probability": 0.5050505050505051, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -595,32 +595,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)", - "probability": 0.19047619047619047, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)", - "probability": 0.6857142857142857, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another member of CDU/CSU", - "probability": 0.028571428571428567, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A member of SPD", - "probability": 0.028571428571428567, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A member of the Green party", - "probability": 0.057142857142857134, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -634,27 +634,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "in Q1, 2021", - "probability": 0.0625, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.31250000000000006, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.11458333333333334, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.09375, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Perhaps later", - "probability": 0.41666666666666674, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -668,22 +668,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.020202020202020204, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.686868686868687, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.20202020202020204, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.09090909090909091, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -697,22 +697,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.8529411764705883, + "probability": 0.8461538461538461, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.10784313725490195, + "probability": 0.10576923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -731,12 +731,12 @@ }, { "name": "Q1, 2021", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -788,12 +788,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9504950495049505, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.04950495049504951, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -807,12 +807,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.9038461538461539, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09615384615384615, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/ladbrokes-questions.csv b/data/ladbrokes-questions.csv index 8deb568..21f1657 100644 --- a/data/ladbrokes-questions.csv +++ b/data/ladbrokes-questions.csv @@ -8,13 +8,13 @@ "Next French Presidential Election: To Win","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.023053988786678126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francois Baroin"",""probability"":0.023053988786678126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernard Cazeneuve"",""probability"":0.015369325857785419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolas Sarkozy"",""probability"":0.015369325857785419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michel Barnier"",""probability"":0.03732550565462173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Lisnard"",""probability"":0.015369325857785419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marion Marechal"",""probability"":0.015369325857785419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ségolène Royal"",""probability"":0.030147523797963708,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valerie Pecresse"",""probability"":0.023053988786678126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.4992583558898448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.1741856930549014,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Melenchon"",""probability"":0.03732550565462173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.03732550565462173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurent Wauquiez"",""probability"":0.015369325857785419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolas Dupont-Aignan"",""probability"":0.023053988786678126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benoit Hamon"",""probability"":0.015369325857785419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "2022 Texas Gubernatorial Election: To Win","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Beto O'Rourke"",""probability"":0.21794871794871795,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Abbott"",""probability"":0.6538461538461539,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew McConaughey"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julian Castro"",""probability"":0.10897435897435898,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "2021 German Federal Election: Most Seats","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""AfD"",""probability"":0.017844886753603295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""CDU + CSU"",""probability"":0.8750857927247769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.05353466026080989,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""SPD"",""probability"":0.05353466026080989,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"2021 NYC Mayoral Election: Election Winner - Void if no 2021 election","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.5017152370016653,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Silwa"",""probability"":0.008593736237751295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.21699184000322022,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.09644081777920897,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ray McGuire"",""probability"":0.05105690353016946,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.07890612363753463,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.03338336000049542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.004318245572203387,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Giuliani"",""probability"":0.008593736237751295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"2021 NYC Mayoral Election: Election Winner - Void if no 2021 election","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.5563445041300947,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Silwa"",""probability"":0.008427792983356882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.1891571314042322,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.0851207091319045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ray McGuire"",""probability"":0.05007100537170853,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.06547746856300346,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.03273873428150173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.00423486115084102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Giuliani"",""probability"":0.008427792983356882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Tees Valley Mayoral Election: To Win","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Ben Houchen (Cons)"",""probability"":0.7936507936507936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jessie Joe Jacobs (Lab)"",""probability"":0.2063492063492063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next Labour Party Leader: To Succeed Keir Starmer","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Andy Burnham"",""probability"":0.07353039962596515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0.07353039962596515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Miliband"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.07353039962596515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.07353039962596515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laura Pidcock"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Jarvis"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.038515923613600796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Miliband"",""probability"":0.023789246937812255,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Corbyn"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burgon"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dawn Butler"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Clive Lewis"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Carden"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zarah Sultana"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Ashworth"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cat Smith"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ian Lavery"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Barry Gardiner"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stephen Kinnock"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hilary Benn"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stella Creasy"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Janet Daby"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anneliese Dodds"",""probability"":0.023789246937812255,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rachel Reeves"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rosie Duffield"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nia Griffith"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Louise Haigh"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Kendall"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Kyle"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Lammy"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seema Malhotra"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alison McGovern"",""probability"":0.012072155162471891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim McMahon"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chi Onwurah"",""probability"":0.012072155162471891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kate Osamor"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Pennycook"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jess Phillips"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bridget Phillipson"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Powell"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ellie Reeves"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Reynolds"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Russell-Moyle"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wes Streeting"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tony Blair"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nadia Whittome"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Eagle"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Helen Hayes"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vicky Foxcroft"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bell Ribeiro-Addy"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Preet Gill"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rosena Allin-Khan"",""probability"":0.04757849387562451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nick Thomas-Symonds"",""probability"":0.038515923613600796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Trickett"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next Labour Party Leader: When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Labour Party leader?","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.22909090909090907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.1309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.1309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024 or later"",""probability"":0.509090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next UK Prime Minister: Next PM (Acting PM or similar will not count)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Eddie Hughes"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.21196616150341224,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Burnham"",""probability"":0.01454669735807731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Grant Shapps"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0014808015274689478,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Graham Brady"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil O'Brien"",""probability"":0.011072859183014072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Theresa May"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nadhim Zahawi"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kwasi Kwarteng"",""probability"":0.011072859183014072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.01454669735807731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Corbyn"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.057067812712457144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keir Starmer"",""probability"":0.1854703913154857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nigel Farage"",""probability"":0.01454669735807731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0.011072859183014072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.021820046037115966,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James 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McDonnell"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.01454669735807731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobia Ellwood"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Barclay"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Damian Hinds"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Davis"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kemi Badenoch"",""probability"":0.011072859183014072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Jenkyns"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bim Afolami"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Helen Whately"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kit Malthouse"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Harper"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Caroline Lucas"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Piers Morgan"",""probability"":0.0014808015274689478,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Cameron"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hilary Benn"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Saville Roberts"",""probability"":0.0014808015274689478,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Davey"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laura Pidcock"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Miliband"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harriet Harman"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Cummings"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Miiliband"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jess Phillips"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bridget Phillipson"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "West Yorkshire Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Andrew Cooper (Green)"",""probability"":0.00915359010936757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party)"",""probability"":0.00915359010936757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Golton (LD)"",""probability"":0.00915359010936757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tracy Brabin (Lab)"",""probability"":0.8404660009510223,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Robinson (Cons)"",""probability"":0.13207322872087493,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"Hartlepool By-election: Winner","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.4695981722440792,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4695981722440792,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.004462350790976076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Reform UK"",""probability"":0.026380367911358563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time)"",""probability"":0.026380367911358563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""SDP"",""probability"":0.0017902844490742338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heritage Party"",""probability"":0.0017902844490742338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Hartlepool By-election: Winner","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.44509874937307453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.49455416597008284,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.004428843277344025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Reform UK"",""probability"":0.026182279374886736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time)"",""probability"":0.026182279374886736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""SDP"",""probability"":0.0017768413148625728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heritage Party"",""probability"":0.0017768413148625728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "London Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan (Lab)"",""probability"":0.87607458110003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey (Cons)"",""probability"":0.053595150843766544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sian Berry (Green)"",""probability"":0.00902096598360427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Kurten (Heritage)"",""probability"":0.003629950455553909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Farah London (Ind)"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem)"",""probability"":0.0045329232056916975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose (Ind)"",""probability"":0.026797575421883272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid (WEP)"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Gammons (UKIP)"",""probability"":0.003629950455553909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Piers Corbyn"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nims Obunge (Ind)"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Count Binface"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""DrillMinister"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Winston McKenzie"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kam Balayev (Renew)"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox (Reclaim)"",""probability"":0.0045329232056916975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Fosh (Ind)"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valerie Brown (Burning Pink)"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "London Mayoral Election: Sadiq Khan R1 Vote Share","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Under 35%"",""probability"":0.04261025029797378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""35-40%"",""probability"":0.08134684147794995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40-45%"",""probability"":0.2753277711561383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45-50%"",""probability"":0.3253873659117998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Over 50%"",""probability"":0.2753277711561383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "London Mayoral Election: Winner without Sadiq Khan","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.04122517504215602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8245035008431204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sian Berry"",""probability"":0.04122517504215602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.033297256764818324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.008571571048369074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Kurten"",""probability"":0.008571571048369074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Gammons"",""probability"":0.008571571048369074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Farah London"",""probability"":0.008571571048369074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.025462608114272835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 @@ -29,10 +29,10 @@ "Next UK General Election: Overall Majority","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Conservative Majoirity"",""probability"":0.34239130434782616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour Majority"",""probability"":0.20923913043478262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No Overall Majority"",""probability"":0.44836956521739135,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next Scottish First Minister: Next Scottish First Minister","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Jackson Carlaw"",""probability"":0.008212500914802535,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Douglas Ross"",""probability"":0.04879191719970918,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Ballantyne"",""probability"":0.003304631842211379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Monica Lennon"",""probability"":0.008212500914802535,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alex Salmond"",""probability"":0.01626397239990306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anas Sarwar"",""probability"":0.02439595859985459,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Murray"",""probability"":0.0016556139568763592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angus Robertson"",""probability"":0.13824376539917602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David 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Denham"",""probability"":0.01626397239990306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shirley-Anne Somerville"",""probability"":0.03190240739980985,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Russell"",""probability"":0.03190240739980985,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joanna Cherry"",""probability"":0.07540569021773237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Wilson"",""probability"":0.012380038692463523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Most Seats","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Reform UK"",""probability"":0.0046980793146331355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.9349642992487724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.018515959651789416,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.027773939477684122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.0046980793146331355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.009349642992487724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Majority Betting","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""SNP Majority"",""probability"":0.5890052356020942,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No SNP Majority"",""probability"":0.4109947643979057,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Majority Betting","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""SNP Majority"",""probability"":0.5361930294906166,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No SNP Majority"",""probability"":0.4638069705093834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Most Seats - Second Place","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.026311219173324074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.2981938172976728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.6577804793331018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.008857242097950678,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.008857242097950678,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: SNP Constituency Vote Share","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Under 40%"",""probability"":0.041931742060984066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40-45%"",""probability"":0.19568146295125896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45-50%"",""probability"":0.37154708155302335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50-55%"",""probability"":0.2935221944268885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55-60%"",""probability"":0.08005150757096959,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Over 60%"",""probability"":0.017266011436875794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister on 1st Jan 2022?","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: SNP Constituency Vote Share","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Under 40%"",""probability"":0.05189297347917039,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40-45%"",""probability"":0.27144016896796824,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45-50%"",""probability"":0.3722280798083952,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50-55%"",""probability"":0.23524814643890576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55-60%"",""probability"":0.05189297347917039,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Over 60%"",""probability"":0.01729765782639013,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister on 1st Jan 2022?","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7096069868995633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2903930131004367,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: SNP Total Seats Over/Under","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Over"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Under"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Edinburgh Central","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.608410155137639,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.07964642030892728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.2695724995071385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.00867436260790297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Greens"",""probability"":0.033696562438392315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Glasgow Southside","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.8406168766829473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.13209693776446316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.01813095224218122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.009155233310408337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 diff --git a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json index 1f6e1f6..283c5f4 100644 --- a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json +++ b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json @@ -1048,47 +1048,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.5017152370016653, + "probability": 0.5563445041300947, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Curtis Silwa", - "probability": 0.008593736237751295, + "probability": 0.008427792983356882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.21699184000322022, + "probability": 0.1891571314042322, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.09644081777920897, + "probability": 0.0851207091319045, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ray McGuire", - "probability": 0.05105690353016946, + "probability": 0.05007100537170853, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.07890612363753463, + "probability": 0.06547746856300346, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.03338336000049542, + "probability": 0.03273873428150173, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.004318245572203387, + "probability": 0.00423486115084102, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Giuliani", - "probability": 0.008593736237751295, + "probability": 0.008427792983356882, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1786,37 +1786,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.4695981722440792, + "probability": 0.44509874937307453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.4695981722440792, + "probability": 0.49455416597008284, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.004462350790976076, + "probability": 0.004428843277344025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.026380367911358563, + "probability": 0.026182279374886736, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time)", - "probability": 0.026380367911358563, + "probability": 0.026182279374886736, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "SDP", - "probability": 0.0017902844490742338, + "probability": 0.0017768413148625728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Heritage Party", - "probability": 0.0017902844490742338, + "probability": 0.0017768413148625728, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2451,12 +2451,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP Majority", - "probability": 0.5890052356020942, + "probability": 0.5361930294906166, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No SNP Majority", - "probability": 0.4109947643979057, + "probability": 0.4638069705093834, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2502,32 +2502,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 40%", - "probability": 0.041931742060984066, + "probability": 0.05189297347917039, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40-45%", - "probability": 0.19568146295125896, + "probability": 0.27144016896796824, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "45-50%", - "probability": 0.37154708155302335, + "probability": 0.3722280798083952, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50-55%", - "probability": 0.2935221944268885, + "probability": 0.23524814643890576, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55-60%", - "probability": 0.08005150757096959, + "probability": 0.05189297347917039, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Over 60%", - "probability": 0.017266011436875794, + "probability": 0.01729765782639013, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2540,12 +2540,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.7096069868995633, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.2903930131004367, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/metaculus-questions.csv b/data/metaculus-questions.csv index 3c568af..4c3c61e 100644 --- a/data/metaculus-questions.csv +++ b/data/metaculus-questions.csv @@ -1,4 +1,23 @@ "title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars" +"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). +Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). +This question asks: +Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? +This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states: +---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. +And: +---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. +The NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say: +There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this. +The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",141,,3 +"What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills. +In the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). +What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD? +This question resolves as the median wage for ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). +Prices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. +","[]",82,,3 "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), Solar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...] Solar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation. @@ -28,13 +47,17 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---71 for the calendar year 2018 ---91 for the calendar year 2019 ","[]",117,,3 -"When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/","Metaculus","Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. -Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. -However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold. -When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19? -This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus. -Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. -","[]",221,,3 +"Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/","Metaculus","A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): +The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. +The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. +By contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)): +A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass. +A skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not. +Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045? +This resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. +The payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. +Positive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",90,,3 "When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/","Metaculus","SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [""fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond""](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a ""rapid unscheduled disassembly"" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0). SpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage. When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? @@ -47,6 +70,24 @@ A small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per It's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth. Before 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",44,,3 +"Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/","Metaculus","From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-), +Although heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty. +From [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/), +The Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation. +In a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin. +“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.” +The novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. +From Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety), +a 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997. +You can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf). +Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023? +This question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media: +--- +The FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective). +--- +Any federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal. +Otherwise, this question resolves negatively. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",36,,3 "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/","Metaculus","Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. Judging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. One thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. @@ -68,23 +109,47 @@ By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for exa However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? Resolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. -","[]",213,,3 -"Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/","Metaculus","Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election. -Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia). -In late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: -Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021? -This question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",170,,3 -"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/","Metaculus","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years. -There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however: ----[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. ----Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held ""within one year before the places are to become vacant."" -While not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.) -The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection). -Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? -This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement. -Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",104,,3 +","[]",217,,3 +"What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/","Metaculus","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. +They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. +This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. +Stripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method. +[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete. +This question asks: +On 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2? +This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. +If it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price. +If CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above. +If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous. +*As judged by a metaculus admin. +","[]",66,,3 +"How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/","Metaculus","[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease. +This question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. +This question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021). +Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. +In case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis. +Other questions in the series. +How many new cases of COVID-19 in: +---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) +---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) +---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) +Similar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/) +","[]",983,,3 +"What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/","Metaculus","World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year. +This is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI). +The figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate. +Answers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars. +What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI? +Resolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously. +","[]",38,,3 +"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. +What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? +This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. +The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. +The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. +In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. +","[]",118,,3 "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/","Metaculus","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): @@ -95,6 +160,16 @@ This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automat For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase). If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT. ","[]",81,,3 +"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/","Metaculus","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years. +There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however: +---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. +---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held ""within one year before the places are to become vacant."" +While not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.) +The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection). +Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? +This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement. +Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",104,,3 "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/","Metaculus","[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate: the short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease. This question asks: @@ -103,6 +178,21 @@ This question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the The range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain. Patients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom ","[]",53,,3 +"When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, ""I Want My Hat Back""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/","Metaculus","The ending of the children's book ""[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)"" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI? +I call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test. +I am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). +See the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920). +So what do you think? +When will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book ""I Want My Hat Back"" and accurately answer the question: ""What happened to the rabbit""? +This resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book ""I Want My Hat Back"" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question ""What Happened to the rabbit?"" within no more than five tries. +Correct responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (""The bear ate it"", ""It was eaten by the bear"", or some equivalent). +If no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as "">2041-01-01"". +","[]",237,,3 +"How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/","Metaculus","The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017. +How many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030? +This will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used. +The question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. +","[]",10,,3 "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/","Metaculus","Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's handling of hotel quarantine.](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told) In late October 2020, the state has reported its first days with no new cases since early June. @@ -115,6 +205,11 @@ If the election date is changed, that will not affect the resolution - but the q If the Labor Party splits before the next election, whichever party is considered the continuing party by the Victorian Electoral Commission (e.g. whichever keeps the party name) will count towards resolution of this question. If neither, then this question resolves ambiguously. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party before the election will not count towards the total, even if they leave the party so late that the party name is printed beside theirs on the ballot paper. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party after the election will count towards the total. ","[]",40,,3 +"Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/","Metaculus","The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since. +However, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia. +These samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. +By the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox? +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",146,,3 "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/","Metaculus","As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months. ---[US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) @@ -129,15 +224,18 @@ The value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if If the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously. November was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for ""late 2021"". ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",72,,3 -"How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/","Metaculus","The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims ""to re-open borders without quarantine"" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [""immunoprivilege,""](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be. -How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? ---- -Applies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight. ---- -In accordance with ICAO practice, ""passengers"" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times. ---- -Resolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. -","[]",172,,3 +"When will the mammoth be revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/","Metaculus","In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago. +When will the mammoth be revived? +This question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday. +The mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively. +","[]",53,,3 +"When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/","Metaculus","The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. +When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%? +This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that: +Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior. +Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD. +[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used. +","[]",73,,3 "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/","Metaculus","Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919), I don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis. You would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court. @@ -146,6 +244,22 @@ The most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030? This question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports. ","[]",114,,3 +"How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/","Metaculus","The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims ""to re-open borders without quarantine"" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [""immunoprivilege,""](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be. +How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? +--- +Applies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight. +--- +In accordance with ICAO practice, ""passengers"" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times. +--- +Resolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. +","[]",175,,3 +"Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/","Metaculus","As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/). +The [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660. +Globally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)). +[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed. +Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075? +This question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,,3 "When will Blue Origin's ""New Glenn"" rocket complete its first successful test flight?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/","Metaculus","Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets. Named after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. New Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016. @@ -157,32 +271,66 @@ And there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket i When will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight? This question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used. ","[]",80,,3 -"When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/","Metaculus","On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion. -[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen? -If /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as ""> 2025-12-31"". -","[]",103,,3 "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/","Metaculus","One dose vaccines also count. How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01? Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). ","[]",56,,3 -"What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/","Metaculus","Background -========== - -[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. -The capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. -The difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. -What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022? - -Data -==== - -Current data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type). - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). -","[]",28,,3 +"Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/","Metaculus","[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing). +Amongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four: +1-- +[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words. +2-- +[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles. +3-- +[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set. +4-- +[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. +Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022? +The question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022. +In 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark: +--- +Penn Treebank: 13 +--- +WikiText-2: 7 +--- +WikiText-103: 18 +--- +1B Words: 5 +Hence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3. +The submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. +Any model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. +","[]",23,,3 +"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879). +Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? +Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",174,,3 +"How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/","Metaculus","[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities. +[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time. +How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? +This question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022. +","[]",58,,3 +"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/","Metaculus","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. +On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. +The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015. +Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? +This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022. +Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is). +---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. +---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. +---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",63,,3 +"What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/","Metaculus","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/). +The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. +What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? +---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). +","[]",167,,3 +"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. +What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? +This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. +The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. +The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. +","[]",103,,3 "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/","Metaculus","One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). In previous years, the total amounts granted were: ---2020: $14,210,367 @@ -195,40 +343,42 @@ How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks fro This will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed. ---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. ","[]",73,,3 -"How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/","Metaculus","Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). -According [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016. -How much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? -Resolution -This question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible. -","[]",150,,3 +"Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/","Metaculus","Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster. +Conditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)? +For the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it: +1a) Is widely reported in the media as ""Medicare for All"" +or +1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare +2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age. +3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered. +3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance. +3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively +If the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously. +For example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously. +This question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges). +This question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",131,,3 "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/","Metaculus","The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively. This question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",288,,3 -"Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/","Metaculus","[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021. -Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021? -For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",85,,3 -"What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/","Metaculus","[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query). -The current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79. -What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? -On 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) -If the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana. -The price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons. -If that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous. -If a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous. -","[]",125,,3 -"What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/","Metaculus","Bear with me, this is a thought experiment. -Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards. -What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)? -The ""magic"" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings. -Qualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me: -A) p = 0%: The World is deterministic -B) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny. -C) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy. -I'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales. -I've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities. -","[]",214,,3 +"How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/","Metaculus","[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered. +Due to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning. +This question asks: +How big will the first crew sent to Mars be? +The question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. +Related questions: +---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) +---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) +---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) +---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) +","[]",91,,3 +"When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/","Metaculus","Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), +By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve. +To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...] +Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.” +When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet? +This question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet. +","[]",48,,3 "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/","Metaculus","Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/). The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). [Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the ""likely"" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy. @@ -240,13 +390,11 @@ Resolution This question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report. In case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out. ","[]",72,,3 -"When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/","Metaculus","Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), -By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve. -To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...] -Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.” -When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet? -This question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet. -","[]",48,,3 +"Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/","Metaculus","As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths. +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States. +Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021? +This resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",93,,3 "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/","Metaculus","On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php). See [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority, 1-- @@ -258,11 +406,11 @@ The local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthqu 4-- A prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins. ","[]",107,,3 -"Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/","Metaculus","As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths. -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States. -Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021? -This resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",93,,3 +"In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/","Metaculus","Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020. +[BBC article 2021-02-19: ""Where does the government borrow billions from?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing. +In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP? +This question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled ""2025 DEC"" of the monthly table. +","[]",34,,3 "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/","Metaculus","[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018. Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021? The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true: @@ -273,25 +421,31 @@ The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true: The market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days. The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",125,,3 -"Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/","Metaculus","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life -longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. -Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years. -(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.) -A ""therapy"" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds. -Longevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively. -If no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. -The date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",93,,3 -"What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/","Metaculus","Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500. -What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? -This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value. -","[]",241,,3 +"Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/","Metaculus","On October 29, 2020, CNBC host Scott Wapner [tweeted](https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC): +Hearing Tim Cook tell @CNBCJosh that the virus makes it too hard to give guidance highlights a big risk for the economy — that while we won’t lock down again, businesses could decide to shut their stores for periods rather than risk their customers or employees getting sick. +Let's focus on Apple, since the company presumably has the resources and wherewithal to be able to implement best practice preventive measures, and understanding the precautions that they choose to implement may help shed light on the likely decisions of similar retail businesses. +The ""always open"" flagship [5th Ave Apple Store](https://www.apple.com/retail/fifthavenue/) location in New York City is providing face masks to shoppers, enforcing social distancing, doing temperature checks, and performing continuous cleaning, according to the store's website. But will these measures be enough to prevent a significant store closure during the 2020/2021 winter season? +Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021? +Resolution will be determined according to announcements made by Apple regarding opening and closing dates of their 5th Ave location. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",247,,3 "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/","Metaculus","US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. Total vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/). Reports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world. When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year? Resolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously. ","[]",37,,3 +"What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/","Metaculus","Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500. +What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? +This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value. +","[]",241,,3 +"What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. +[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL). +What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? +This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +","[]",58,,3 "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/","Metaculus","In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in. International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations. Others speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/). @@ -300,19 +454,12 @@ What do you think? When will we cross the threshold? For a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. (Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.) ","[]",366,,3 -"What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. -[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL). -What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? -This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -","[]",55,,3 -"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/","Metaculus","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead? -Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? -The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021. -An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1169,,3 +"How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/","Metaculus","Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a ""serious, worldwide threat to public health"" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/). +In 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask: +How many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report? +Resolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved. +Related question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/) +","[]",52,,3 "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/","Metaculus","The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that ""basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society"". In 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3. In 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world. @@ -349,30 +496,11 @@ Resolution Criteria The resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview). ","[]",25,,3 -"What percentage of predictions about ""robotic judges"" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/","Metaculus","[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: ----Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be ""commonplace"" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. ----Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty ""with 99.9 per cent accuracy"" ----The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour ""indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods"", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. ----Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost ""error-free"" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. ----Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become ""commonplace"" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study ----In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past ----Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century ----AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required ----Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying -What percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible) -What percentage of predictions about ""robotic judges"" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right? -In 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. -Examples: ----If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. ----If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. ----If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. -The term ""robotic judges"" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase ""Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying"" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. -","[]",19,,3 -"Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/","Metaculus","Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.” -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident). -Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021? -This question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",57,,3 +"When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/","Metaculus","As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under ""Social Networking"" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. +(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.) +When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store? +The ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord. +","[]",59,,3 "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/","Metaculus","Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites. Youtube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as a hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists. @@ -381,16 +509,18 @@ Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023? ---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. ---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",31,,3 -"Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/","Metaculus","The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. -Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election. -Erin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012. -On policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a ""CANZUK"" agreement, getting ""tough on China"", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal. -Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024? -This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen. -In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open. -Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. -Further, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",58,,3 +"Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/","Metaculus","Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources? +Gravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, ""approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)"". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated. +Will the GWB be detected by 2075? +Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources? +This resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,,3 +"Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/","Metaculus","Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes. +The [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021. +Biden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden. +Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? +This question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",137,,3 "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/","Metaculus","Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed. Research has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality. As of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th. @@ -399,16 +529,6 @@ This question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the pe The value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the ""Observed Number"" column and substracting the values in the ""Average Expected Count"" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021. If this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. ","[]",80,,3 -"What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/","Metaculus","[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): -Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists. -Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers. -As of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is ""Shape of You"" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017. -Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release. -What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? -There is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify. -If that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution. -If that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously. -","[]",41,,3 "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. @@ -417,6 +537,20 @@ This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of th GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. ","[]",133,,3 +"When will GTA VI be released in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/","Metaculus","[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris. +The latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV). +When will GTA VI be released? +This question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. +This date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order. +","[]",57,,3 +"If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election. +This question will resolve positively if: +---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and +---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. +This question will resolve ambiguously if: +---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. +---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",575,,3 "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading), Seasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading. Proponents say seasteads can ""provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship."" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations. @@ -426,6 +560,12 @@ The first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Bui Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035? This question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",30,,3 +"Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/","Metaculus","[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. +Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft. +This question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050? +By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism. +To resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",256,,3 "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/","Metaculus","related questions on Metaculus: ---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) As of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986. @@ -433,16 +573,6 @@ Some activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01? This question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution. ","[]",27,,3 -"When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/","Metaculus","Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)). -When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? -This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively. -If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as ""> Oct 6, 2030"". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved. -","[]",146,,3 -"Will the next President of the United States be impeached?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/","Metaculus","So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted. -One notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached. -Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States? -The 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",225,,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf). [Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). @@ -451,10 +581,33 @@ What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscape This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. ","[]",66,,3 -"Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/","Metaculus","Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. -Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025? -This question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",89,,3 +"If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/","Metaculus","Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up. +Assume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years? +The date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037. +This question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented. +If costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",74,,3 +"Will the next President of the United States be impeached?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/","Metaculus","So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted. +One notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached. +Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States? +The 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",225,,3 +"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/","Metaculus","Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. +What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? +The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. +You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/). +Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. +[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] +","[]",70,,3 +"Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. +They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. +This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. +Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton. +[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton. +This question asks: +On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach? +This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",58,,3 "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/","Metaculus","[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer: Matt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers. Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? @@ -467,20 +620,6 @@ Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020. Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the ""English-speaking world"". ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",91,,3 -"Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. -They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. -This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. -Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton. -[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton. -This question asks: -On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach? -This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",58,,3 -"On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/","Metaculus","Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question). -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction. -On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%? -This question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",102,,3 "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/","Metaculus","[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128) Human challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021. How many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people? @@ -492,75 +631,104 @@ Other possible world: ---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/). ","[]",230,,3 -"What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/","Metaculus","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. -There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy. -In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan). -In a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)? -Resolution -For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll. -","[]",188,,3 -"Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/","Metaculus","One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast. -Many different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders. -The [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois. -So we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035? -Definitions of success: ---- -There is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois. ---- -This cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff. ---- -At some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",91,,3 -"What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/","Metaculus","According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%. -This question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%. -'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time. -'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default. -If the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators. +"How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/","Metaculus","Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). +With new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). +In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) +How many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year? +This question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla. +Tesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.). +","[]",106,,3 +"When will the US-EU border reopen?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/","Metaculus","The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020. +On January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions ""shall remain in effect until terminated by the President"". +When will the US-EU border reopen? +Resolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution. +Resolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports. ","[]",30,,3 "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/","Metaculus","A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area. To give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago. This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? For a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",233,,3 -"Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/","Metaculus","Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly. -Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? -This question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date: ----Donald Trump ----Melania Trump ----Donald Trump Jr. ----Ivanka Trump ----Eric Trump ----Tiffany Trump ----Barron Trump ----Jared Kushner -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",82,,3 -"Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/","Metaculus","The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia) -The S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends? -This question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",125,,3 -"Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/","Metaculus","Background -========== - -[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. -With its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. -According to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble. -Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation? - -Resolution -========== - -This question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. -Resolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,,3 -"Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/","Metaculus","In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/). -At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability. -He was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay). -Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75? -This question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. -This question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims. -If he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously. -He was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",55,,3 +"What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/","Metaculus","According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%. +This question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%. +'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time. +'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default. +If the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators. +","[]",30,,3 +"Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons), +The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021. +For those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme. +A mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands. +While [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons). +Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway? +This question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",48,,3 +"By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/","Metaculus","Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year. +As a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. +If consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. +Data: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information. +By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025? +Resolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously. +","[]",24,,3 +"How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/","Metaculus","Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s. +If progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI. +How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus? +For the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. +1-- +[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/) +2-- +[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/) +3-- +[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/) +4-- +[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/) +5-- +[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/) +6-- +[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/) +7-- +[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/) +8-- +[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/) +9-- +[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/) +10- +[When will AI understand ""I Want My Hat Back""?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/) +11- +[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/) +12- +[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/) +13- +[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/) +14- +[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) +15- +[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/) +16- +[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/) +To avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous. +Here's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated: +1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. +2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, +3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. +4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). +","[]",13,,3 +"What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/","Metaculus","The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810. +A plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv). +What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)? +This question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. +","[]",92,,3 +"Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/","Metaculus","The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (""Core CPI"") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023. +The ""Core CPI"" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E). +Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? +This question resolves ""yes"" if the 12-month ""Core CPI"" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023. +This question resolves ""no"" if the 12-month ""Core CPI"" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,,3 +"When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/","Metaculus","The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2). +On 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [""as early as April""](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [""talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.""](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant). +When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? +This question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change. +","[]",134,,3 "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by ""the left"" or by ""the right""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/","Metaculus","As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right? Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by ""the left"" or by ""the right""? A list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states). @@ -572,15 +740,86 @@ If a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resol In case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution. Friendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. ","[]",15,,3 -"When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/","Metaculus","The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2). -On 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [""as early as April""](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [""talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.""](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant). -When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? -This question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change. -","[]",134,,3 -"What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/","Metaculus","[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart). -What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025? ----USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. -","[]",18,,3 +"Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6777/will-brazil-have-2000-covid-deaths-per-day/","Metaculus","During the first wave in Brazil, the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths peaked at just over 1,050 deaths. Now, while total official deaths surpass 270,000, the country is experiencing a second deadlier wave, with [record-breaking](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425) COVID-19 deaths per day. Vaccination is still at a [slow pace](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/opinion/brazil-covid-vaccines.html) and a new coronavirus variant, [P1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/brazil-covid-variant-p1-britain) (more transmissible and with some chance to [evade the immune protection](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html) of previous illness), is imposing large stress over the national healthcare system, already close to its [full capacity](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-in-brazil-overwhelms-local-hospitals-hits-younger-patients-11614705337). +In view of the above, this question asks: +Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021? +--- +This question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths equal to or above 2,500 in Brazil before 1 June 2021 according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil?country=~BRA). +--- +This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. +The 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar [question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/#comment-47286). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",39,,3 +"When will the VIX index climb above 50?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/","Metaculus","The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market. +It represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%. +Between 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX). +The question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count. +Companion question: +---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) +","[]",104,,3 +"When will PHP die?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/","Metaculus","[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. +According to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all): +PHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know. +While [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites. +Some popular websites using PHP: +---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) +---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) +---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) +---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) +---[360.cn](http://360.cn) +---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) +---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) +---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) +Despite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages. +[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like: +---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) +---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) +---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) +---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) +This question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath. +General language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question. +","[]",96,,3 +"What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. +What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD? +This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. +","[]",90,,3 +"When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/","Metaculus","---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) +Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). +Recently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation. +When will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income? +In order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is: +1-- +Unconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. ""all citizens over the age of 18""). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count). +2-- +Substantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year. +3-- +Guaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. +4-- +Ongoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold. +--- +If a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. +--- +""Country"" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A ""virtual nation"" or territory would not count. +--- +The payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan. +--- +The question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms ""country"" ""person"" and ""income"" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. +","[]",13,,3 +"When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/","Metaculus","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance. +In their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD. +When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour? +Resolution +This question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below. +This question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price. +Data +These are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/): +2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD) +","[]",61,,3 +"Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/","Metaculus","As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field. +This question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? +For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",237,,3 "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/","Metaculus","Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/). Since then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants). Effective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time? @@ -588,58 +827,71 @@ Will the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends. Total interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. Edit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",109,,3 -"Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/","Metaculus","PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware. -[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations. -[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure. -As of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study. -This question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,,3 -"Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/","Metaculus","The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA. -On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."" -Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022? -This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source. -If the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",109,,3 -"When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/","Metaculus","[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords) -Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes. -[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014). -But more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition. -[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of) -When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected? -This question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote. -So this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected. -If the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. -","[]",40,,3 -"Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/","Metaculus","[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris): -Kamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. -If Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination. -Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election? -If Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively. -If Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",247,,3 +"When will One Piece end?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/","Metaculus","It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.). +So when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published? +This question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time). +This question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place. +","[]",36,,3 +"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6385/vaccine-doses-administered-germany-by-april/","Metaculus","One dose vaccines also count. +How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01? +Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). +","[]",22,,3 +"Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/","Metaculus","[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/). +A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics), +Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies. +You can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy. +Jeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates). +See also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/). +Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived? +For the purpose of this question, a ""patient"" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions. +1-- +The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media. +2-- +The patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation. +The Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report. +If the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. +By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",37,,3 +"How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). +[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. +Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). +Multimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf). +How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period? +This question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"". +Details of the search query +For the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords: +""Multimodal Machine Learning”, ""multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning"", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning"" +The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). +Running this query for previous years gives: +---45 for the calendar year 2017 +---71 for the calendar year 2018 +---91 for the calendar year 2019 +","[]",196,,3 +"What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/","Metaculus","The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent. +What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024? +This question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024. +","[]",35,,3 "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/","Metaculus","The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered? This question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question. ","[]",70,,3 -"Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/","Metaculus","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident). -Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021? -This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",65,,3 -"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. -While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people. -The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: -Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions -When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT? -This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed. -If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023. -Related question ----[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) -","[]",117,,3 -"Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/","Metaculus","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. -The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure. -Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024? -This will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,,3 +"If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/","Metaculus","[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. +In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to: +1-- +White wins +2-- +Black wins +3-- +Forced draw +If chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? +For the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if +--- +it is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides +--- +it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw +Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication. +For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question +This question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",168,,3 "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/","Metaculus","In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers. However, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions: ---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). @@ -690,11 +942,6 @@ When we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds an If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2: When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. ","[]",122,,3 -"What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/","Metaculus","In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%. -What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be? -This question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE). -","[]",86,,3 "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/","Metaculus","Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings. One task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.) For a precise question we'll ask: @@ -703,6 +950,11 @@ There's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.meta When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key? Resolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.) ","[]",56,,3 +"What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/","Metaculus","In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%. +What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be? +This question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE). +","[]",86,,3 "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/","Metaculus","On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures. JFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including: --- @@ -714,6 +966,13 @@ Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.histor And there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. It's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President? ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",281,,3 +"When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/","Metaculus","[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052) +Data of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html). +When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1? +Resolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp. +The question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase. +Resolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor. +","[]",20,,3 "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/","Metaculus","On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States. Scott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog, This is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria. @@ -728,6 +987,21 @@ The Princeton Review Dream Colleges The website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%. This question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030. ","[]",43,,3 +"What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/","Metaculus","For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? +The global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031. +""Annual return"" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is: +Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available. +","[]",105,,3 +"What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/","Metaculus","Markets and Markets reports that: +“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.” +These numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. +The EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences. +The compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things. +What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period? +Resolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. +Data: +Using the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7% +","[]",49,,3 "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/","Metaculus","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc). The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in ""tier 1"" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people. @@ -735,31 +1009,7 @@ When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house. By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions. To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed."" -","[]",152,,3 -"What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/","Metaculus","For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? -The global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031. -""Annual return"" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is: -Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available. -","[]",105,,3 -"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). -Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). -This question asks: -Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? -This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states: ----That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. -And: ----That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. -The NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say: -There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this. -The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",141,,3 -"What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills. -In the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). -What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD? -This question resolves as the median wage for ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). -Prices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. -","[]",82,,3 +","[]",153,,3 "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/","Metaculus","This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea. This question asks: What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/). @@ -769,17 +1019,6 @@ Resolution criteria: With probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date. The details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution. ","[]",80,,3 -"Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/","Metaculus","A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): -The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. -The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. -By contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)): -A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass. -A skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not. -Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045? -This resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. -The payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. -Positive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",90,,3 "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/","Metaculus","Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5). As new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth. Will will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? @@ -805,11 +1044,6 @@ In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % This question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). If the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022. ","[]",59,,3 -"Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates. -Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? -Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. -In the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",216,,3 "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/","Metaculus","Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that: The People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants. While the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution. @@ -824,24 +1058,20 @@ The resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the For the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist. The first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question. ","[]",28,,3 -"Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/","Metaculus","From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-), -Although heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty. -From [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/), -The Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation. -In a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin. -“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.” -The novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. -From Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety), -a 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997. -You can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf). -Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023? -This question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media: ---- -The FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective). ---- -Any federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal. -Otherwise, this question resolves negatively. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",36,,3 +"Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates. +Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? +Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. +In the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",221,,3 +"When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/","Metaculus","The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance. +When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university? +To qualify as a ""top"", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught. +This question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced. +If QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead. +If the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced. +This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. +Edit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. +","[]",104,,3 "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/","Metaculus","In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the ""Three Nos"": ""no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it..."" Since then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel. This brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four. @@ -900,6 +1130,22 @@ If any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions c Otherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative. Otherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",80,,3 +"What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/","Metaculus","Context +======= + +The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/). +Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. +Considered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run. +Other Related Questions: +[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/) +[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/) +What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well. +","[]",37,,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. @@ -938,30 +1184,17 @@ What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. ","[]",219,,3 +"How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/","Metaculus","The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will ""attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window"". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars). +How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt? +The question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds. +The preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf). +","[]",61,,3 "Will China land the next person on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/","Metaculus","Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024. Will China land the next person on the Moon? This question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise. This question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report. For a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",73,,3 -"How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/","Metaculus","The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will ""attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window"". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars). -How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt? -The question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds. -The preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf). -","[]",60,,3 -"What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/","Metaculus","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. -They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. -This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. -Stripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method. -[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete. -This question asks: -On 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2? -This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. -If it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price. -If CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above. -If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous. -*As judged by a metaculus admin. -","[]",66,,3 "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/","Metaculus","A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. According to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing: According to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada. @@ -975,31 +1208,12 @@ The exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's ---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia ---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island ","[]",73,,3 -"How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/","Metaculus","[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease. -This question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. -This question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021). -Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. -In case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis. -Other questions in the series. -How many new cases of COVID-19 in: ----[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) ----[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) ----[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) -Similar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/) -","[]",983,,3 "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/","Metaculus","The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (""Special Vehicles"") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA). The land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called ""passes""). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated. The current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. This question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025? Resolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",147,,3 -"What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/","Metaculus","World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year. -This is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI). -The figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate. -Answers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars. -What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI? -Resolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously. -","[]",38,,3 "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/","Metaculus","[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia. In March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement. In Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021): @@ -1081,22 +1295,6 @@ For example: ---for Sep-2020 this value is: If these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously. ","[]",33,,3 -"When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/","Metaculus","The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance. -When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university? -To qualify as a ""top"", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught. -This question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced. -If QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead. -If the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced. -This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. -Edit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. -","[]",101,,3 -"Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/","Metaculus","related question on Metaculus: ----[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) -President-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a ""transition figure"" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [""absolutely""](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [""absolutely""](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again. -Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024? -This question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC. -The number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,,3 "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/","Metaculus","[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's ""sister planet"" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects. It has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun. Due to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions. @@ -1106,7 +1304,23 @@ As of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are acti When will the first human mission to Venus take place? This question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres. The humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. -","[]",39,,3 +","[]",40,,3 +"Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/","Metaculus","There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/) +Japan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics): +2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th +Will they come in the Top 4 again? +Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics +This question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021. +The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: +1--Number of Gold Medals +2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals +3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",63,,3 +"How much global warming by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/","Metaculus","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy. +[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have. +Therefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880? +Data for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway. +","[]",480,,3 "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/","Metaculus","[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates. The last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break. When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released? @@ -1131,28 +1345,6 @@ It resolves negative if he is not president at that time. Cases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date. In Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",87,,3 -"How much global warming by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/","Metaculus","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy. -[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have. -Therefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880? -Data for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway. -","[]",479,,3 -"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient), -In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...] -A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...] -The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality. -The World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7. -This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)? -If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution. -Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/). -","[]",12,,3 -"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. -What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? -This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. -The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. -The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. -In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. -","[]",118,,3 "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/","Metaculus","Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. About [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. Dates of note @@ -1174,10 +1366,28 @@ No coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two wee Coal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period In case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously. ","[]",68,,3 -"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/","Metaculus","One dose vaccines also count. -How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01? -Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -","[]",46,,3 +"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient), +In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...] +A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...] +The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality. +The World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7. +This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)? +If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution. +Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/). +","[]",12,,3 +"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/","Metaculus","As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory. +What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? +The [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021. +","[]",473,,3 +"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/","Metaculus","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). +Data sources: +---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) +---[Vaccine Distribution ""Process""](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) +---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) +What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30? +This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses."" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET. +In the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled ""Number of people receiving 1 or more doses"", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. +","[]",71,,3 "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). @@ -1193,21 +1403,11 @@ If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the antici For convenience, the historical Gini coefficient data is below in csv format: Date,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7 2000,40.3 2004,40.5 2007,41.0 2010,40.3 2013,41 2016,41.4 ","[]",70,,3 -"When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, ""I Want My Hat Back""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/","Metaculus","The ending of the children's book ""[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)"" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI? -I call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test. -I am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). -See the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920). -So what do you think? -When will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book ""I Want My Hat Back"" and accurately answer the question: ""What happened to the rabbit""? -This resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book ""I Want My Hat Back"" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question ""What Happened to the rabbit?"" within no more than five tries. -Correct responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (""The bear ate it"", ""It was eaten by the bear"", or some equivalent). -If no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as "">2041-01-01"". -","[]",237,,3 "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/","Metaculus","A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the ""natural"" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan? A [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. Who will win? Resolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",874,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",875,,3 "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/","Metaculus","[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia. It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime? @@ -1225,7 +1425,7 @@ In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny ha --- If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively. Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",520,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",521,,3 "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/","Metaculus","There is an active question on [""Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result. Scotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum. The question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum? @@ -1302,24 +1502,17 @@ How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030? The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people. The logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. ","[]",49,,3 -"How many emoji related court cases in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/","Metaculus","[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications. -Each year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020. -How many emoji related court cases in 2021? -Resolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous. -","[]",37,,3 "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/","Metaculus","Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. In additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology. Private efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts? Well ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? To separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more. ","[]",294,,3 -"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD). -Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning. -What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? -This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD. -Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). -","[]",54,,3 +"How many emoji related court cases in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/","Metaculus","[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications. +Each year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020. +How many emoji related court cases in 2021? +Resolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous. +","[]",37,,3 "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/","Metaculus","Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/): A teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday. He was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1). @@ -1329,6 +1522,13 @@ Will Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? ---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. ETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",510,,3 +"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD). +Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning. +What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? +This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD. +Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). +","[]",55,,3 "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/","Metaculus","Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. Will Roe vs. Wade be reversed? We specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy? @@ -1379,11 +1579,11 @@ Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? This question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change). If there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",37,,3 -"How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/","Metaculus","The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017. -How many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030? -This will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used. -The question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. -","[]",10,,3 +"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/","Metaculus","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead? +Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? +The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021. +An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1177,,3 "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/","Metaculus","In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” On the one hand, Puerto Ricans can: --- @@ -1417,7 +1617,7 @@ This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen: ---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the ""Yes""s and ""No""s. The group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories ""Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics"" and ""General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology."" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group. The number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",82,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",84,,3 "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/","Metaculus","In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. How many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023? Resolution @@ -1451,28 +1651,34 @@ Resolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffai If it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria). Edit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. ","[]",85,,3 +"What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/","Metaculus","Context +======= + +The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted. +The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market. +Another important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). +Related questions: +[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/) +[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/) +What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously. +","[]",61,,3 "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/","Metaculus","There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Question: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023? This resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both: ---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). ---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",172,,3 -"Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/","Metaculus","The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since. -However, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia. -These samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. -By the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox? -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",146,,3 -"Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/","Metaculus","[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics: -The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states. ---[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) -CDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU. -The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date. -As of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021. -Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union? -This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative. -The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed. -In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",196,,3 +"By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/","Metaculus","When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. +Of the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman. +By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? +Resolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15. +If there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",150,,3 "How many NASA ""space launch system"" (SLS) launches before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/","Metaculus","The first test launch of NASA's new ""Space Launch System"" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/) Meanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/) On the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the ""Europa Clipper"" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the ""Lunar Gateway"" space station as currently envisioned. @@ -1486,13 +1692,7 @@ A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-inte So, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? Some examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. (Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",501,,3 -"By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/","Metaculus","When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. -Of the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman. -By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? -Resolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15. -If there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",150,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",502,,3 "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/","Metaculus","previous Metaculus questions: ---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) The [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents. @@ -1526,7 +1726,7 @@ However, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/w When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held? This resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale. ETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government. -","[]",61,,3 +","[]",63,,3 "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/","Metaculus","[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about ""per capita"" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP. What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050? ---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). @@ -1536,23 +1736,26 @@ Related questions: ---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) ---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* ","[]",105,,3 +"What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/","Metaculus","The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade? +What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030? +The price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). +---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. +If Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order: +--- +Coinbase +--- +Kraken +--- +Bitfinex +--- +Bitstamp +If none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous. +","[]",54,,3 "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/","Metaculus","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners. Recently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available. This question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use? The question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors. -","[]",127,,3 -"When will the mammoth be revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/","Metaculus","In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago. -When will the mammoth be revived? -This question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday. -The mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively. -","[]",53,,3 -"When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/","Metaculus","The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. -When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%? -This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that: -Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior. -Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD. -[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used. -","[]",73,,3 +","[]",128,,3 "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/","Metaculus","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. The 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys). When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available? @@ -1563,6 +1766,20 @@ This question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outpu Patents, announcements, and review units do not count. *4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels. ","[]",69,,3 +"Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/","Metaculus","Background +========== + +The price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. +With prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. +Predictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. +Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well. +This question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",267,,3 "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/","Metaculus","See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user. Germany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs. French Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs. @@ -1594,7 +1811,7 @@ Related Questions ---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) If the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",240,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",241,,3 "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/","Metaculus","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). The Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf): The number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads. @@ -1606,37 +1823,36 @@ Data According to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014: 2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720. ","[]",133,,3 -"Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/","Metaculus","As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/). -The [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660. -Globally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)). -[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed. -Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075? -This question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,,3 -"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. -The [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8. -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? -This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -","[]",68,,3 +"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/","Metaculus","One dose vaccines also count. +How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01? +Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). +","[]",46,,3 "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/","Metaculus","One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people. When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? This question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn. 'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others. ","[]",108,,3 +"On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/","Metaculus","Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question). +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction. +On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%? +This question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",103,,3 "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/","Metaculus","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS) There is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies. BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026? After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",95,,3 -"Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/","Metaculus","Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. -Machine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long? -Assume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. -Question resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040. -Note that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",969,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",105,,3 +"Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/","Metaculus","[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics: +The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states. +--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) +CDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU. +The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date. +As of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021. +Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union? +This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative. +The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed. +In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",200,,3 "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/","Metaculus","[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory. MMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics. Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01? @@ -1645,14 +1861,12 @@ A. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core co B. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves) This question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is ""for"" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,,3 -"Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/","Metaculus","Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014. -He was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg) -However, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election -Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey? -Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated). -Resolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner. -Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",76,,3 +"Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/","Metaculus","Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. +Machine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long? +Assume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. +Question resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040. +Note that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",970,,3 "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/","Metaculus","Related questions: [When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/) [When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/) @@ -1675,6 +1889,43 @@ Resolution Criteria This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions. ","[]",39,,3 +"Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/","Metaculus","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life +longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. +Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years. +(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.) +A ""therapy"" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds. +Longevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively. +If no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. +The date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",95,,3 +"Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/","Metaculus","Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy. +The closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation. +Betelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it) +The rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos. +The observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae. +Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? +--- +This question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050. +--- +This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,,3 +"Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/","Metaculus","Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014. +He was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg) +However, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election +Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey? +Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated). +Resolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner. +Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",80,,3 +"When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/","Metaculus","The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587). +While there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1). +When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? +The question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. +The error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)). +Example: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. +The scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less. +The question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. +","[]",50,,3 "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/","Metaculus","Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors: [Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate): Seven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme @@ -1693,61 +1944,28 @@ Perhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns. [More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary). What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023? ---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) -","[]",22,,3 -"When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/","Metaculus","The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587). -While there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1). -When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? -The question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. -The error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)). -Example: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. -The scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less. -The question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. -","[]",45,,3 -"Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/","Metaculus","Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy. -The closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation. -Betelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it) -The rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos. -The observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae. -Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? ---- -This question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050. ---- -This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,,3 +","[]",24,,3 "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/","Metaculus","The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester? The university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",121,,3 +"Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/","Metaculus","Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.” +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident). +Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021? +This question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",74,,3 +"Will we find life on Mars by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars), +The possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms. +Life on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa. +If life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, ""scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation."" +Will we find life on Mars by 2050? +This question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",65,,3 "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/","Metaculus","Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing. Additionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal. When will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics? This question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author. ","[]",16,,3 -"Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/","Metaculus","[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing). -Amongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four: -1-- -[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words. -2-- -[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles. -3-- -[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set. -4-- -[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. -Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022? -The question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022. -In 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark: ---- -Penn Treebank: 13 ---- -WikiText-2: 7 ---- -WikiText-103: 18 ---- -1B Words: 5 -Hence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3. -The submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. -Any model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. -","[]",23,,3 "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/","Metaculus","Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract, According to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them. Scott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. @@ -1756,13 +1974,6 @@ In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens? This question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter ""grabby aliens"", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology. ETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as "">10^16"". ","[]",128,,3 -"Will we find life on Mars by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars), -The possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms. -Life on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa. -If life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, ""scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation."" -Will we find life on Mars by 2050? -This question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",65,,3 "When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/","Metaculus","The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies. [As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or ""National Debt"" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm) [You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/) @@ -1778,7 +1989,32 @@ If OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves amb In case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask: In your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3? After 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as ""yes"". -","[]",342,,3 +","[]",344,,3 +"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. +The [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8. +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? +This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +","[]",70,,3 +"Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract), +An assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem. +The free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone. +[...] +Dominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided. +Tabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts. +[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), ""Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts."" +Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035? +This question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A ""prominent platform"" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions, +--- +Its owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days. +--- +Any of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post. +--- +A Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted. +Admins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,,3 "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/","Metaculus","The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population. This latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response. Question: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025? @@ -1798,28 +2034,7 @@ This questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public h In case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency. The relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts. This question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",379,,3 -"Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract), -An assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem. -The free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone. -[...] -Dominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided. -Tabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts. -[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), ""Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts."" -Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035? -This question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A ""prominent platform"" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions, ---- -Its owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days. ---- -Any of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post. ---- -A Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted. -Admins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,,3 -"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879). -Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? -Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",174,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",381,,3 "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/","Metaculus","The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence. According to its website: MIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision. @@ -1837,7 +2052,7 @@ Regrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are con Therefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050? We shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.) Resolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source. -","[]",312,,3 +","[]",313,,3 "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/","Metaculus","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [""on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S. President Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021? @@ -1849,16 +2064,18 @@ Specifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are current So as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. Any other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals. If the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",73,,3 -"Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/","Metaculus","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that -Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. -Will Hanson win the bet? -Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",218,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",74,,3 "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/","Metaculus","Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for ""discriminating Russian media's content"". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him. Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",170,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",173,,3 +"Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/","Metaculus","related question on Metaculus: +---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) +President-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a ""transition figure"" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [""absolutely""](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [""absolutely""](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again. +Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024? +This question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC. +The number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,,3 "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/","Metaculus","It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale. Until relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred. By contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks. @@ -1890,16 +2107,7 @@ Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur 10- [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",249,,3 -"When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/","Metaculus","SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km. -When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? -This question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve -A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)): ----Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative ----Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) ----The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. ----The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. -","[]",105,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",252,,3 "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/","Metaculus","Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases. Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases? @@ -1920,12 +2128,7 @@ If the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? Resolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. -","[]",338,,3 -"How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/","Metaculus","[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities. -[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time. -How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? -This question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022. -","[]",58,,3 +","[]",341,,3 "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/","Metaculus","Background ========== @@ -1958,34 +2161,28 @@ This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). ","[]",92,,3 +"Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/","Metaculus","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life +longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. +Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)? +An anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. +For the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. +This question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)). +Successful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator. +If no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",92,,3 "What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/","Metaculus","The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident). What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data? This question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing). ","[]",89,,3 -"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/","Metaculus","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). -Data sources: ----[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) ----[Vaccine Distribution ""Process""](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) ----[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) -What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30? -This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses."" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET. -In the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled ""Number of people receiving 1 or more doses"", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. -","[]",67,,3 -"Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/","Metaculus","This will be ""True"" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word ""hydrino"", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word ""hydrino"". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals. -The conjunction of Randell Mills with the word ""hydrino"" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",165,,3 -"When will the US-EU border reopen?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/","Metaculus","The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020. -On January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions ""shall remain in effect until terminated by the President"". -When will the US-EU border reopen? -Resolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution. -Resolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports. -","[]",28,,3 "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/","Metaculus","In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/) Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",569,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",570,,3 +"Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/","Metaculus","This will be ""True"" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word ""hydrino"", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word ""hydrino"". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals. +The conjunction of Randell Mills with the word ""hydrino"" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",165,,3 "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list? @@ -2004,16 +2201,6 @@ This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). ","[]",47,,3 -"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/","Metaculus","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. -On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. -The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015. -Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? -This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022. -Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is). ----The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. ----If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. ----This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",63,,3 "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/","Metaculus","[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund). GE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud. Note that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter. @@ -2026,32 +2213,11 @@ This question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countri If for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability. If the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",48,,3 -"What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/","Metaculus","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/). -The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. -What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? ----The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). -","[]",167,,3 -"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. -What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? -This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. -The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. -The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. -","[]",103,,3 "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/","Metaculus","Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a ""hybrid regime"" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. After what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030). What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? This question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously. ","[]",34,,3 -"Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/","Metaculus","The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan. -Alternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the ""status quo"" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)). -Will the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050? -This question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050: ----There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (""free area"") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. ----There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. ----There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. -This question resolves negatively otherwise. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",162,,3 "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/","Metaculus","This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters. @@ -2061,50 +2227,20 @@ Anything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intell Given our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe. The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty. ","[]",255,,3 -"Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6777/will-brazil-have-2000-covid-deaths-per-day/","Metaculus","During the first wave in Brazil, the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths peaked at just over 1,050 deaths. Now, while total official deaths surpass 270,000, the country is experiencing a second deadlier wave, with [record-breaking](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425) COVID-19 deaths per day. Vaccination is still at a [slow pace](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/opinion/brazil-covid-vaccines.html) and a new coronavirus variant, [P1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/brazil-covid-variant-p1-britain) (more transmissible and with some chance to [evade the immune protection](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html) of previous illness), is imposing large stress over the national healthcare system, already close to its [full capacity](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-in-brazil-overwhelms-local-hospitals-hits-younger-patients-11614705337). -In view of the above, this question asks: -Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021? ---- -This question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths equal to or above 2,500 in Brazil before 1 June 2021 according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil?country=~BRA). ---- -This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. -The 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar [question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/#comment-47286). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,,3 +"Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/","Metaculus","The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan. +Alternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the ""status quo"" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)). +Will the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050? +This question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050: +---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (""free area"") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. +---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. +---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. +This question resolves negatively otherwise. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",165,,3 "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/","Metaculus","An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election). This question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations. In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats? This will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021 ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",158,,3 -"Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/","Metaculus","Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster. -Conditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)? -For the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it: -1a) Is widely reported in the media as ""Medicare for All"" -or -1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare -2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age. -3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered. -3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance. -3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively -If the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously. -For example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously. -This question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges). -This question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",131,,3 -"What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/","Metaculus","The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade? -What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030? -The price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). ----We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. -If Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order: ---- -Coinbase ---- -Kraken ---- -Bitfinex ---- -Bitstamp -If none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous. -","[]",39,,3 "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/","Metaculus","related question on Metaculus: ---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) Elon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion. @@ -2145,13 +2281,6 @@ Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020? This question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies. In case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",403,,3 -"Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/","Metaculus","[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020. -As of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. -[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. -Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021? -This question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021. -In the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,,3 "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/","Metaculus","Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr. The $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress). If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour? @@ -2159,35 +2288,13 @@ The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol If Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous. If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. ","[]",300,,3 -"Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/","Metaculus","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. -The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. -Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. -This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025? -Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1152,,3 -"What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/","Metaculus","Context -======= - -The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/). -Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. -Considered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run. -Other Related Questions: -[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/) -[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/) -What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well. -","[]",33,,3 -"Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/","Metaculus","Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. -The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date. -The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30) -Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024? -This will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end. -It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,,3 +"Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/","Metaculus","[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020. +As of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. +[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. +Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021? +This question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021. +In the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",55,,3 "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/","Metaculus","In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. [This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up. And [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. @@ -2199,11 +2306,6 @@ This would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bi --- Almost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like ""viruses"". ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",83,,3 -"When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/","Metaculus","As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under ""Social Networking"" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. -(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.) -When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store? -The ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord. -","[]",56,,3 "What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/","Metaculus","For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the S&P 500 index achieve? ""Annual return"" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is: Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Inflation rates to be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index. @@ -2226,17 +2328,6 @@ No resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV The aforementioned ""consensus"" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below. If does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members. ","[]",59,,3 -"How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/","Metaculus","[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered. -Due to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning. -This question asks: -How big will the first crew sent to Mars be? -The question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. -Related questions: ----[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) ----[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) ----[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) ----[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) -","[]",91,,3 "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/","Metaculus","The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day. Recently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants. What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021 @@ -2272,7 +2363,16 @@ If neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has In order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens. So, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? Data for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",589,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",590,,3 +"When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/","Metaculus","From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan): +4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK. +4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date. +The UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later. +[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context. +When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? +This question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000. +If there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report. +","[]",490,,3 "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/","Metaculus","The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita). The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179. This question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars? @@ -2343,11 +2443,6 @@ Data Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. ","[]",23,,3 -"In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/","Metaculus","Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020. -[BBC article 2021-02-19: ""Where does the government borrow billions from?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing. -In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP? -This question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled ""2025 DEC"" of the monthly table. -","[]",34,,3 "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3. An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models. @@ -2457,12 +2552,27 @@ This question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office If no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous. The question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,,3 +"Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/","Metaculus","Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. +The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date. +The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30) +Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024? +This will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end. +It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,,3 "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/","Metaculus","In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020. Tesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [""Tesla stock price is too high imo.""](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184) As of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business) This question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars? This question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called ""Tesla"" (rather than ""Grohmann Automation"" or ""Tesla Energy"", say), should inherit the Tesla identity. ","[]",76,,3 +"Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/","Metaculus","Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/). +If the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively. +Each Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below. +Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges. +Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges. +During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews). +The Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online ""instant messaging"" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",330,,3 "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/","Metaculus","Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative). Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive). An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. @@ -2471,14 +2581,6 @@ Will the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be wort Resolution This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",87,,3 -"Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/","Metaculus","Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/). -If the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively. -Each Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below. -Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges. -Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges. -During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews). -The Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online ""instant messaging"" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",328,,3 "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/","Metaculus","The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42. The [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows: To remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol. @@ -2502,19 +2604,19 @@ The AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easi The AI cannot have access to the internet during the test. If the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so. If the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. -","[]",21,,3 +","[]",22,,3 +"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/","Metaculus","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset. +In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process. +Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021? +This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",248,,3 "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/","Metaculus","The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse? Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021? This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000. If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/). Data updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week). This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",447,,3 -"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/","Metaculus","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset. -In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process. -Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021? -This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",247,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",448,,3 "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/","Metaculus","Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html). As AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can ""pass a Turing test"" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial. For example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech). @@ -2532,13 +2634,6 @@ Resolution will be by credible media reports. Old resolution criteria: This question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",188,,3 -"If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/","Metaculus","In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year. -If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025? -This question resolves: ----Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. ----Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. ----Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",230,,3 "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/","Metaculus","Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard. Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050? Resolution details: @@ -2547,12 +2642,25 @@ To resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or --- The life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",194,,3 +"If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/","Metaculus","In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year. +If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025? +This question resolves: +---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. +---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. +---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",230,,3 +"Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/","Metaculus","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. +The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. +Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. +This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025? +Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1154,,3 "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). There has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0). Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. Reporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",280,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",282,,3 "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/","Metaculus","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. Currently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. @@ -2560,6 +2668,11 @@ What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022. In case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. ","[]",69,,3 +"Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/","Metaculus","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that +Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. +Will Hanson win the bet? +Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",219,,3 "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/","Metaculus","[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne. At the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs) This question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom? @@ -2571,7 +2684,7 @@ According to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldba Question: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)? Estimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers. This question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",791,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",795,,3 "Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/","Metaculus","Context ======= @@ -2615,13 +2728,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. -","[]",110,,3 -"How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/","Metaculus","Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a ""serious, worldwide threat to public health"" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/). -In 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask: -How many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report? -Resolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved. -Related question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/) -","[]",52,,3 +","[]",112,,3 "What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/","Metaculus","The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. A plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv). Data sources and more information: @@ -2674,18 +2781,6 @@ Tesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings If Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question. Will count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels. ","[]",66,,3 -"Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/","Metaculus","Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes. -The [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021. -Biden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden. -Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? -This question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",134,,3 -"Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/","Metaculus","Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources? -Gravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, ""approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)"". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated. -Will the GWB be detected by 2075? -Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources? -This resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,,3 "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. @@ -2696,46 +2791,6 @@ Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. ","[]",152,,3 -"When will GTA VI be released in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/","Metaculus","[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris. -The latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV). -When will GTA VI be released? -This question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. -This date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order. -","[]",57,,3 -"When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/","Metaculus","Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway. -From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus): -Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. -And: -Physicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015. -Since the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted. -Question: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur? -Resolution details: ---- -""the last Metaculus question resolution"" is here defined as either: -------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. -------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. ---- -When this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000. ---- -If Metaculus evolves so much that either ""resolution"" or ""Metaculus question"" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous. ---- -If the concepts of ""when"", ""will"", ""last"" or ""occur"" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)). -","[]",145,,3 -"Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/","Metaculus","In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. -The office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. -The UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" with the large majority being listed as ""remote"". -Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021? -This question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. -In the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously. -If a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",158,,3 -"What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/","Metaculus","Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect. -The trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html). -What will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030? -The resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html). -If this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously. -(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.) -","[]",173,,3 "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/","Metaculus","Context ======= @@ -2751,7 +2806,22 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously. -","[]",48,,3 +","[]",49,,3 +"Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/","Metaculus","In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. +The office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. +The UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" with the large majority being listed as ""remote"". +Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021? +This question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. +In the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously. +If a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",158,,3 +"What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/","Metaculus","Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect. +The trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html). +What will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030? +The resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html). +If this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously. +(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.) +","[]",173,,3 "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/","Metaculus","Context ======= @@ -2768,15 +2838,13 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== The resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March -","[]",80,,3 -"Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/","Metaculus","[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. -In the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide. -In the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation. -This question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election) -Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election. -Resolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner. -Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",510,,3 +","[]",82,,3 +"Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/","Metaculus","Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election. +Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia). +In late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: +Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021? +This question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",174,,3 "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/","Metaculus","In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [""The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.""](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest. Though there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance. Before 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause? @@ -2791,14 +2859,14 @@ Before 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall ---Tesla For the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.) ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",60,,3 -"If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election. -This question will resolve positively if: ----someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and ----Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. -This question will resolve ambiguously if: ----Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. ----Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",575,,3 +"Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/","Metaculus","[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. +In the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide. +In the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation. +This question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election) +Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election. +Resolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner. +Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",513,,3 "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/","Metaculus","[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/): on Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference. Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025? @@ -2861,12 +2929,6 @@ This question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more This question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November. November is defined according to UTC ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",185,,3 -"If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/","Metaculus","Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up. -Assume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years? -The date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037. -This question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented. -If costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",74,,3 "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/","Metaculus","India is a middle-income country [ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020. In 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently [estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October/weo-report?c=534,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PPPSH,PCPIPCH,&sy=1980&ey=2020&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1). Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021? @@ -2896,20 +2958,6 @@ In many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035? This question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",30,,3 -"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/","Metaculus","Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. -What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? -The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. -You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/). -Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. -[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] -","[]",69,,3 -"Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/","Metaculus","On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021. -U.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days. -U.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline. -The Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward. -Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01? -The question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",202,,3 "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023? @@ -2917,13 +2965,10 @@ This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of th GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. ","[]",71,,3 -"How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/","Metaculus","Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). -With new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). -In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) -How many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year? -This question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla. -Tesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.). -","[]",106,,3 +"Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/","Metaculus","President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))? +Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022? +The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",176,,3 "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/","Metaculus","The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles). In Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and ""at the jockey's discretion"" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html). A jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for ""overuse of the whip"" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html). @@ -2937,10 +2982,6 @@ This question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one If no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. Changes to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the ""Melbourne Cup"", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,,3 -"Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/","Metaculus","President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))? -Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022? -The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",176,,3 "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/","Metaculus","A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin. We can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin. How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021? @@ -2956,11 +2997,22 @@ This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. If no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021. ","[]",188,,3 +"Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/","Metaculus","On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021. +U.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days. +U.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline. +The Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward. +Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01? +The question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",202,,3 +"What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/","Metaculus","[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart). +What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025? +---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. +","[]",25,,3 "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/","Metaculus","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average. What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States? This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. -","[]",87,,3 +","[]",90,,3 "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). @@ -2970,12 +3022,40 @@ Data Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. ","[]",147,,3 +"When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/","Metaculus","SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km. +When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? +This question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve +A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)): +---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative +---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) +---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. +---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. +","[]",111,,3 "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus","Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. ","[]",71,,3 +"When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/","Metaculus","Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway. +From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus): +Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. +And: +Physicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015. +Since the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted. +Question: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur? +Resolution details: +--- +""the last Metaculus question resolution"" is here defined as either: +------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. +------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. +--- +When this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000. +--- +If Metaculus evolves so much that either ""resolution"" or ""Metaculus question"" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous. +--- +If the concepts of ""when"", ""will"", ""last"" or ""occur"" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)). +","[]",147,,3 "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/","Metaculus","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): @@ -3004,14 +3084,6 @@ The website further states that the project team ""expect[s] to arrive at [the] Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? The question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,,3 -"Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons), -The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021. -For those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme. -A mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands. -While [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons). -Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway? -This question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",48,,3 "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/","Metaculus","Background ========== @@ -3025,56 +3097,6 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself. ","[]",20,,3 -"By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/","Metaculus","Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year. -As a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. -If consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. -Data: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information. -By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025? -Resolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously. -","[]",24,,3 -"How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/","Metaculus","Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s. -If progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI. -How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus? -For the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. -1-- -[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/) -2-- -[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/) -3-- -[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/) -4-- -[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/) -5-- -[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/) -6-- -[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/) -7-- -[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/) -8-- -[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/) -9-- -[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/) -10- -[When will AI understand ""I Want My Hat Back""?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/) -11- -[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/) -12- -[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/) -13- -[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/) -14- -[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) -15- -[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/) -16- -[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/) -To avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous. -Here's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated: -1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. -2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, -3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. -4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). -","[]",13,,3 "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14? Index @@ -3094,11 +3116,6 @@ Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100. For the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. ","[]",69,,3 -"What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/","Metaculus","The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810. -A plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv). -What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)? -This question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. -","[]",92,,3 "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input. @@ -3121,69 +3138,120 @@ This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of th GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. ","[]",56,,3 -"Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/","Metaculus","The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (""Core CPI"") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023. -The ""Core CPI"" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E). -Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? -This question resolves ""yes"" if the 12-month ""Core CPI"" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023. -This question resolves ""no"" if the 12-month ""Core CPI"" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,,3 "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/","Metaculus","The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period). In the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. Commercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)). But when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space? For the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded. ","[]",297,,3 +"When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/","Metaculus","Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. +Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. +However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold. +When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19? +This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus. +Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. +","[]",222,,3 "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/","Metaculus","As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021? The OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine. -","[]",224,,3 +","[]",226,,3 "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/","Metaculus","A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. Two previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it. When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available? This question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution. ","[]",74,,3 -"When will PHP die?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/","Metaculus","[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. -According to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all): -PHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know. -While [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites. -Some popular websites using PHP: ----[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) ----[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) ----[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) ----[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) ----[360.cn](http://360.cn) ----[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) ----[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) ----[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) -Despite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages. -[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like: ----[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) ----[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) ----[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) ----[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) -This question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath. -General language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question. -","[]",96,,3 -"What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. -What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD? -This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. -","[]",90,,3 -"When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/","Metaculus","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance. -In their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD. -When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour? -Resolution -This question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below. -This question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price. +"When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/","Metaculus","On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion. +[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen? +If /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as ""> 2025-12-31"". +","[]",103,,3 +"What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/","Metaculus","Background +========== + +[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. +The capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. +The difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. +What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022? + Data -These are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/): -2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD) -","[]",61,,3 -"Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/","Metaculus","As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field. -This question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? -For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",237,,3 +==== + +Current data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type). + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). +","[]",28,,3 +"How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/","Metaculus","Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). +According [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016. +How much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? +Resolution +This question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible. +","[]",150,,3 +"Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/","Metaculus","[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021. +Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021? +For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",85,,3 +"What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/","Metaculus","[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query). +The current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79. +What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? +On 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) +If the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana. +The price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons. +If that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous. +If a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous. +","[]",125,,3 +"What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/","Metaculus","Bear with me, this is a thought experiment. +Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards. +What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)? +The ""magic"" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings. +Qualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me: +A) p = 0%: The World is deterministic +B) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny. +C) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy. +I'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales. +I've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities. +","[]",214,,3 +"What percentage of predictions about ""robotic judges"" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/","Metaculus","[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: +---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be ""commonplace"" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. +---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty ""with 99.9 per cent accuracy"" +---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour ""indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods"", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. +---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost ""error-free"" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. +---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become ""commonplace"" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study +---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past +---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century +---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required +---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying +What percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible) +What percentage of predictions about ""robotic judges"" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right? +In 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. +Examples: +---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. +---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. +---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. +The term ""robotic judges"" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase ""Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying"" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. +","[]",19,,3 +"Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/","Metaculus","The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. +Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election. +Erin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012. +On policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a ""CANZUK"" agreement, getting ""tough on China"", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal. +Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024? +This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen. +In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open. +Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. +Further, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",58,,3 +"What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/","Metaculus","[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): +Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists. +Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers. +As of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is ""Shape of You"" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017. +Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release. +What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? +There is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify. +If that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution. +If that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously. +","[]",41,,3 "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/","Metaculus","related questions on Metaculus: ---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) Beginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html). @@ -3194,10 +3262,15 @@ Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01? This question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. As the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.050000000000000044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,,3 -"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/","Metaculus","As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory. -What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? -The [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021. -","[]",470,,3 +"When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/","Metaculus","Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)). +When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? +This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively. +If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as ""> Oct 6, 2030"". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved. +","[]",147,,3 +"Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/","Metaculus","Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. +Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025? +This question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",89,,3 "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/","Metaculus","[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)] In March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US. As of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing). @@ -3205,105 +3278,102 @@ How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1s Resolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time. A previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) ","[]",60,,3 -"When will One Piece end?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/","Metaculus","It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.). -So when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published? -This question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time). -This question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place. -","[]",36,,3 -"Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/","Metaculus","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life -longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. -Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)? -An anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. -For the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. -This question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)). -Successful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator. -If no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",88,,3 -"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6385/vaccine-doses-administered-germany-by-april/","Metaculus","One dose vaccines also count. -How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01? -Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -","[]",22,,3 -"Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/","Metaculus","[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/). -A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics), -Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies. -You can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy. -Jeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates). -See also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/). -Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived? -For the purpose of this question, a ""patient"" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions. -1-- -The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media. -2-- -The patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation. -The Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report. -If the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. -By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,,3 -"How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). -[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. -Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). -Multimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf). -How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period? -This question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"". -Details of the search query -For the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords: -""Multimodal Machine Learning”, ""multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning"", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning"" -The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). -Running this query for previous years gives: ----45 for the calendar year 2017 ----71 for the calendar year 2018 ----91 for the calendar year 2019 -","[]",196,,3 -"What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/","Metaculus","The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent. -What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024? -This question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024. -","[]",35,,3 -"If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/","Metaculus","[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. -In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to: -1-- -White wins -2-- -Black wins -3-- -Forced draw -If chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? -For the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if +"What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/","Metaculus","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. +There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy. +In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan). +In a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)? +Resolution +For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll. +","[]",188,,3 +"Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/","Metaculus","One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast. +Many different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders. +The [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois. +So we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035? +Definitions of success: --- -it is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides +There is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois. --- -it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw -Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication. -For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question -This question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",168,,3 -"Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/","Metaculus","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. -The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. -Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. -This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025? -Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025. -A flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",613,,3 -"When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/","Metaculus","[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052) -Data of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html). -When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1? -Resolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp. -The question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase. -Resolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor. -","[]",20,,3 -"What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/","Metaculus","Markets and Markets reports that: -“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.” -These numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. -The EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences. -The compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things. -What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period? -Resolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. -Data: -Using the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7% -","[]",49,,3 +This cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff. +--- +At some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",91,,3 +"Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/","Metaculus","Background +========== + +[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. +With its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. +According to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble. +Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation? + +Resolution +========== + +This question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. +Resolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,,3 +"Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/","Metaculus","Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly. +Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? +This question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date: +---Donald Trump +---Melania Trump +---Donald Trump Jr. +---Ivanka Trump +---Eric Trump +---Tiffany Trump +---Barron Trump +---Jared Kushner +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",82,,3 +"Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/","Metaculus","The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia) +The S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends? +This question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",125,,3 +"Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/","Metaculus","In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/). +At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability. +He was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay). +Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75? +This question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. +This question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims. +If he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously. +He was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",55,,3 +"Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/","Metaculus","PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware. +[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations. +[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure. +As of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study. +This question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,,3 +"Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/","Metaculus","The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA. +On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."" +Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022? +This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source. +If the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",111,,3 +"When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/","Metaculus","[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords) +Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes. +[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014). +But more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition. +[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of) +When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected? +This question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote. +So this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected. +If the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. +","[]",40,,3 +"Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/","Metaculus","[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris): +Kamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. +If Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination. +Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election? +If Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively. +If Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",247,,3 "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/","Metaculus","Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment. Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? A report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",49,,3 +"Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/","Metaculus","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident). +Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021? +This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",65,,3 "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/","Metaculus","Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition. A brief overview on her: Merkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. @@ -3312,15 +3382,25 @@ She’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest Given the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government. Thus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel? ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",358,,3 -"What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/","Metaculus","The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue? -The admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously. -","[]",216,,3 "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/","Metaculus","Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe). Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it. Will there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? This question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union. It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",871,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",872,,3 +"What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/","Metaculus","The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue? +The admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously. +","[]",216,,3 +"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. +While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people. +The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: +Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions +When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT? +This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed. +If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023. +Related question +---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) +","[]",117,,3 "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/","Metaculus","One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. The currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1. Its predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. @@ -3342,6 +3422,11 @@ Over 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a Fr So the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025? ---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",116,,3 +"Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/","Metaculus","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. +The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure. +Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024? +This will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,,3 "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/","Metaculus","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? @@ -3369,6 +3454,13 @@ In the unlikely event of full authorisation being granted without emergency use If an EUA is granted but later revoked, this would not change the outcome of the question. This resolves positively even if the authorization is limited to certain classes of higher-risk patients, as was the case for Bamlanivimab, and even if other governmental agencies (eg. NIH) do not recommend it as standard of care. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",38,,3 +"Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/","Metaculus","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. +The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. +Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. +This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025? +Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025. +A flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",622,,3 "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/","Metaculus","One dose vaccines also count. How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01? Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). @@ -3385,11 +3477,11 @@ If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1 When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below. In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period. The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. -","[]",88,,3 +","[]",90,,3 "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/","Metaculus","Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland. Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",301,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",313,,3 "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/","Metaculus","The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart. Johnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination. What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing? @@ -3413,7 +3505,7 @@ This question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard This should resolve according to [the ""by date of death"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the ""by date reported"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media. Note that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier). If still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths. -","[]",207,,3 +","[]",211,,3 "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/","Metaculus","On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [""Will any festivals happen this summer?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone: In the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to. @@ -3423,7 +3515,7 @@ Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021? If a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met. If not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement. Shambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",76,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",81,,3 "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/","Metaculus","After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease. The New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as ""extremely high,"" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read ""very high."" On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""? @@ -3473,21 +3565,7 @@ Resolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",240,,3 "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/","Metaculus","Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023? This question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",60,,3 -"Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/","Metaculus","Background -========== - -The price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. -With prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. -Predictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. -Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well. -This question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.040000000000000036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",248,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",61,,3 "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/","Metaculus","[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)] [Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019. @@ -3495,7 +3573,7 @@ In December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breakin When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more? Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100. Inflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -","[]",211,,3 +","[]",213,,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. @@ -3532,7 +3610,7 @@ If at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97 --- Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution. (Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2710,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2723,,3 "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6560/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-30/","Metaculus","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). @@ -3559,12 +3637,16 @@ Tiffany Trump Melania Trump --- Barron Trump -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",556,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",557,,3 "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/","Metaculus","The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. As we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp). What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021? Resolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#). -","[]",186,,3 +","[]",201,,3 +"What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/","Metaculus","Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion. +What will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024? +This question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2. +","[]",104,,3 "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/","Metaculus","In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too. If Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen? 435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership. @@ -3572,11 +3654,7 @@ Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022? Resolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously. .* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it. .^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",173,,3 -"What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/","Metaculus","Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion. -What will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024? -This question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2. -","[]",104,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",174,,3 "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/","Metaculus","Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/). In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%. This question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month? @@ -3611,6 +3689,15 @@ This question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely consider What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021? The “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD. ","[]",117,,3 +"What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. +At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html) +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? +This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)). +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +","[]",77,,3 "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/","Metaculus","Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. In November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm) Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time. @@ -3629,15 +3716,6 @@ Exactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Ch The data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE) Normal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",82,,3 -"What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. -At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html) -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? -This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)). -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -","[]",76,,3 "Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5824/uk-to-cut-international-aid/","Metaculus","The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, recently announced that the government will [reduce the amount of spend on international development from 0.7% of GNI to 0.5%.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55064019). This means that the UK government will spend £10bn on aid instead of £14bn. The proposal generated significant cross-party controversy, with one Foreign Office Minister [resigning](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/nov/25/uk-foreign-aid-budget-cut-chancellor-announces) in protest. In order to pass the cut to aid, [an act of parliament is required](https://www.euractiv.com/section/development-policy/news/uk-aid-cuts-to-be-enshrined-in-law-ministers-concede/), while the large majority held by the Conservative Party makes a defeat unlikely, the discontent surrounding the bill makes it at least possible. There has been some discussion from Effective Altruists about exerting pressure in this direction, see [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/a5qSgWBLRsicYFRFm/gbp4bn-for-the-global-poor-the-uk-s-0-7) for more. @@ -3675,7 +3753,7 @@ As of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypos Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively. In cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",542,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",552,,3 "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/","Metaculus","Context Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. @@ -3684,7 +3762,7 @@ This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil Resolution Criteria This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1320,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1329,,3 "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/","Metaculus","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market. Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026? After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))? @@ -3693,7 +3771,7 @@ After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 20 2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. 3--All prices are in USD. 4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",217,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",225,,3 "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/","Metaculus","According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question. As of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021. On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k? @@ -3747,7 +3825,7 @@ This question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or h The resolution date is the date the report is published. The question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such. If Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. -","[]",19,,3 +","[]",20,,3 "When will be the next ""Great Power"" war?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/","Metaculus","A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. While great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes The world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds. @@ -3760,7 +3838,7 @@ One nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territor High quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as ""at war."" For the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute). The date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers? -","[]",117,,3 +","[]",118,,3 "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/","Metaculus","OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [""When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3. Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning? This question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page. @@ -3858,16 +3936,7 @@ The Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter This question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage real GDP growth in the US? The question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved between Jan 1, 2020 to Dec 31, 2029. Resolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press. -","[]",174,,3 -"When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/","Metaculus","From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan): -4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK. -4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date. -The UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later. -[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context. -When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? -This question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000. -If there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report. -","[]",470,,3 +","[]",176,,3 "How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/","Metaculus","[3 million extra people](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) were employed in the US healthcare and social services industries between 2011 and 2019 to a total of approximately 22 million people, making the healthcare industry the [largest employer](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/10/health-care-still-largest-united-states-employer.html) across the United States. However, with the onset of COVID-19, employment in healthcare fell 7.8% from February to April 2020. Health-based employment fell primarily across office based jobs, with the greatest effects seen by dentists’ offices at unemployment rates [over 50%](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). As the possibility of tele-health [becomes more available](https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/telehealth-growth-attracts-eyes-investors-2021-could-see-influx-capital) with changes in the market from COVID-19, these downward trends in growth [could continue](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/10/08/covid19-pandemic-some-jobs-health-care-decline-telemedicine-administrative-services-elective-surgeries/) for office-based health care jobs. While unemployment increased throughout the sector, it fell most hard upon women, who saw unemployment levels in office jobs [peak at 11.2%, compared to 6.8% for men](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). For hospital workers, who were required more for in-person care during the pandemic, unemployment remained roughly the same. @@ -4082,7 +4151,7 @@ Resolution details: ---This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. * My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example. Note that in this sense Humans are only ""based"" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",143,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",145,,3 "When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/","Metaculus","A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention. Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls. (source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen)) @@ -4188,7 +4257,7 @@ Will a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the Unit In order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. A positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. A mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1066,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1067,,3 "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/","Metaculus","previous Metaculus questions: --- [Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) @@ -4219,13 +4288,6 @@ What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscape This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. ","[]",122,,3 -"Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/","Metaculus","SpaceX has released plans for an ""Interplanetary Transport System"" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars. -In typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars. -In another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030. -This question sets a scaled-back goal: -Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? -This will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1107,,3 "Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/","Metaculus","In 2007, a formal apology for slavery [H.Res. 194](https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/house-resolution/194/text) entered the United States congress and was later passed unanimously by the senate. For centuries, animal rights/welfare activists have made the comparison between slavery and animal agriculture. Writing in 1789, Jeremy Bentham [said](https://www.utilitarianism.com/jeremybentham.html) The day has been, I grieve it to say in many places it is not yet past, in which the greater part of the species, under the denomination of slaves, have been treated ... upon the same footing as ... animals are still. The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny. The French have already discovered that the blackness of skin is no reason why a human being should be abandoned without redress to the caprice of a tormentor. [...]. The time will come when humanity will extend its mantle over everything which breathes... "" @@ -4245,6 +4307,13 @@ This question resolves as the date when at least ten variants of rDNA constructs This resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved as safe to eat. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/), resolves positively before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are determined as safe to eat. If this question does not resolve before October 5th, 2031, it resolves as ""> Oct 5, 2031"". ","[]",85,,3 +"Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/","Metaculus","SpaceX has released plans for an ""Interplanetary Transport System"" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars. +In typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars. +In another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030. +This question sets a scaled-back goal: +Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? +This will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1109,,3 "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/","Metaculus","The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, ""soft power"" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). Could this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as ""kinetic conflict"") in the near future? Some Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): @@ -4255,6 +4324,19 @@ On the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the la Thus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026? This question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in ""kinetic conflict"", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a ""cold war""). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",146,,3 +"Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/","Metaculus","On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London. +The spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility: +The new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective. +Over time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary. +Peacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.” +If there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is. +Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus? +This question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2. +---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. +---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. +---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. +---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",258,,3 "Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/","Metaculus","As reported by [Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/steve-bannon-trump-adviser-arrested-fraud-200820134920664.html): Former White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico border. The charges were contained in an indictment ([PDF](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1306611/download)) unsealed in Manhattan federal court, which alleges Bannon and three others ""orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors"". @@ -4269,19 +4351,6 @@ Will Bannon be found guilty of at least one fraud charge? ---The resolution concerns the first verdict. We may make another question about an eventual appealed case (seems likely). ---Only the ones in this case are relevant. If Bannon is indicted with unrelated fraud charges, these are irrelevant for this question. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",329,,3 -"Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/","Metaculus","On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London. -The spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility: -The new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective. -Over time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary. -Peacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.” -If there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is. -Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus? -This question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2. ----The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. ----The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. ----Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. ----If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",257,,3 "When will there be at least one billion Americans?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/","Metaculus","[One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020. One Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities. As of January 2021, [the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.](https://www.census.gov/popclock/) @@ -4330,7 +4399,7 @@ If this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to The time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC. If bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves ""No"". If [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",715,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",716,,3 "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6676/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-april/","Metaculus","One dose vaccines also count. How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01? Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). @@ -4438,7 +4507,7 @@ Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring] Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01? This question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01. This question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.030000000000000027,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",140,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.030000000000000027,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",141,,3 "When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/","Metaculus","Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/). [Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs). Since its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees. @@ -4474,7 +4543,7 @@ The resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at Here is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • Also note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",313,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",315,,3 "How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/","Metaculus","Currently, according to the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute), 12.85 millions of hectares of tree cover was lost in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2015. The Amazon (60% of which is located in Brazil) represents over half of the planet's remaining rainforests, and comprises the largest and most biodiverse tract of tropical rainforest in the world, with an estimated 390 billion individual trees divided into 16,000 species. The Amazon plays a crucial role in including carbon sequestration, climate and water cycle regulation, and maintenance of biodiversity.[[1](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacd1c)] @@ -4620,7 +4689,7 @@ The date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.' By 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof. This means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system. Resolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal. -","[]",89,,3 +","[]",100,,3 "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/","Metaculus","A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp), a decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak. When will be the next S&P 500 correction? @@ -4639,12 +4708,6 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. ","[]",31,,3 -"A major United States earthquake by 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/","Metaculus","The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. -The [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by ""The Big One,"" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. -23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging. -Will a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022? -This question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",681,,3 "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/","Metaculus","Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time. Question @@ -4678,6 +4741,12 @@ If the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median. If the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph. Otherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate. ","[]",118,,3 +"A major United States earthquake by 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/","Metaculus","The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. +The [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by ""The Big One,"" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. +23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging. +Will a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022? +This question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",681,,3 "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. @@ -4699,7 +4768,7 @@ The question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as t Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: ---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) -","[]",435,,3 +","[]",436,,3 "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). [Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data. @@ -4727,7 +4796,7 @@ If neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question w Note that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it. Because the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative. Similarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth. It is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",49,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",50,,3 "When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/","Metaculus","The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter. This basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following: Chickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)] @@ -4751,7 +4820,7 @@ There are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most in Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20? This question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state. Resolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",171,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",172,,3 "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/","Metaculus","A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century. In the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight. This question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? @@ -4766,7 +4835,7 @@ The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each p The US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021? Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021? This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",65,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",74,,3 "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/","Metaculus","Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria Foundation was the most funded charity, with $1.1 million; followed by GiveWell, with $837,000. In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020? Donation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously. @@ -5002,7 +5071,7 @@ Resolves according to official CommonPass, ICAO, or IATA statistics if and when Therefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030? A positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost. Due to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",535,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",537,,3 "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/","Metaculus","Context ======= @@ -5098,7 +5167,7 @@ To be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand li "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/","Metaculus","The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue. Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)? This will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",292,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",293,,3 "When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/","Metaculus","According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, Metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31. When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)? This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 130. @@ -5173,7 +5242,7 @@ It also resolves positively if: Otherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030. In case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event. * ""longevity research"" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",215,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",217,,3 "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model), A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. The New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list), @@ -5181,7 +5250,7 @@ widely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030? A book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions. This question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",148,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",149,,3 "When will the first baby be born away from Earth?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/","Metaculus","This question simply asks: When will the first baby be born away from Earth? The question will resolve when the first alive human baby be born away from Earth. The distance from the surface of Earth at the moment of the birth must be at least 80km. If it doesn't happen before 2120, then the question will resolve at >2120. @@ -5189,6 +5258,17 @@ Similar questions: ---[Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/) ---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) ","[]",62,,3 +"When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/","Metaculus","Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neural networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199). In particular, neural networks seem to suffer from a problem currently known as adversarial examples. +Adversarial examples are images optimized so as to fool a machine learning algorithm, but remain unambiguous to humans. Current machine learning algorithms can be fooled by changes that are essentially impossible to perceive by humans. The issue of adversarial examples highlight differences in how humans and algorithms do image recognition. [""Adversarial Examples - A Complete Characterisation of the Phenomenon""](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01185) provides an extensive overview. +Notably, adversarial examples can also be a security issue, for example by making it possible to bypass face or voice recognition used for authentication. +Recently Google introduced [the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/09/introducing-unrestricted-adversarial.html). This challenge allows unrestricted inputs, allowing participants to submit arbitrary images from the target classes to develop and test models on a wider variety of adversarial examples. They ask models to answer the question ""Is this an unambiguous picture of a bird, a bicycle, or is it (ambiguous / not obvious)?"". The images are provided by attackers and are first labeled by humans. A small monetary prize will be awarded to any team that breaks a previously-unbroken defense with an eligible input. +The question asks: + +When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary? +-------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +The question will resolve when the large defender prize of the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge is awarded. This means that a defense (an image recognition algorithm) must remain unbroken for at least 90 days. [This file provides details of the challenge.](https://github.com/google/unrestricted-adversarial-examples/blob/7cf9c3e6a33d32de3c7f1568b655d391f7815370/contest_proposal.md#unrestricted-adversarial-examples-contest-proposal) The question will resolve even if the details of the challenge are modified as long as the spirit of the challenge remains the same. The question will resolve as ambiguous if the challenge is discontinued before the end of 2030. +","[]",160,,3 "How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6142/us-states-with-gini-scores-5-by-2025/","Metaculus","“In economics, the [Gini coefficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient#:~:text=The%20Gini%20coefficient%20is%20a,from%20a%20totally%20equal%20distribution.) (/ˈdʒiːni/ JEE-nee), sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. It was developed by the Italian statistician and sociologist Corrado Gini and published in his 1912 paper Variability and Mutability (Italian: Variabilità e mutabilità).” Used to measure a country’s income inequality across the globe, the Gini Index has recently been appropriated by the ACS (American Community Services) to measure income inequality between households across the states and territories of the United States. [The index](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/acs-1year.html#:~:text=The%20Gini%20index%20is%20a,has%20all%20of%20the%20income.) ranges from 0 to 1, with complete equality at 0 and complete inequality at 1. Currently, most states and territories lie between the [0.4 and 0.5](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf) mark, with several notable exceptions above the 0.5 mark including Puerto Rico, New York, Connecticut, and Washington D.C. By 2018, income inequality in the US was the [worst out of all the G7 nations](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/6-facts-about-economic-inequality-in-the-u-s/) with a Gini coefficient of .434. With the onset of the global Coronavirus pandemic in 2020, these inequalities have grown even greater. @@ -5206,17 +5286,6 @@ Resolution Criteria The resolution for this question will be provided through the United States Census Bureau and their [annual report on household income](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.html). It will come from their 2025 annual report, for which an example report from 2019 can be found [here](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf). ","[]",20,,3 -"When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/","Metaculus","Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neural networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199). In particular, neural networks seem to suffer from a problem currently known as adversarial examples. -Adversarial examples are images optimized so as to fool a machine learning algorithm, but remain unambiguous to humans. Current machine learning algorithms can be fooled by changes that are essentially impossible to perceive by humans. The issue of adversarial examples highlight differences in how humans and algorithms do image recognition. [""Adversarial Examples - A Complete Characterisation of the Phenomenon""](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01185) provides an extensive overview. -Notably, adversarial examples can also be a security issue, for example by making it possible to bypass face or voice recognition used for authentication. -Recently Google introduced [the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/09/introducing-unrestricted-adversarial.html). This challenge allows unrestricted inputs, allowing participants to submit arbitrary images from the target classes to develop and test models on a wider variety of adversarial examples. They ask models to answer the question ""Is this an unambiguous picture of a bird, a bicycle, or is it (ambiguous / not obvious)?"". The images are provided by attackers and are first labeled by humans. A small monetary prize will be awarded to any team that breaks a previously-unbroken defense with an eligible input. -The question asks: - -When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary? --------------------------------------------------------------------------- - -The question will resolve when the large defender prize of the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge is awarded. This means that a defense (an image recognition algorithm) must remain unbroken for at least 90 days. [This file provides details of the challenge.](https://github.com/google/unrestricted-adversarial-examples/blob/7cf9c3e6a33d32de3c7f1568b655d391f7815370/contest_proposal.md#unrestricted-adversarial-examples-contest-proposal) The question will resolve even if the details of the challenge are modified as long as the spirit of the challenge remains the same. The question will resolve as ambiguous if the challenge is discontinued before the end of 2030. -","[]",158,,3 "Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/","Metaculus","The [""nones"" are rising faster than ever in America](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/13/a-closer-look-at-americas-rapidly-growing-religious-nones/), but globally, non-religious people are currently shrinking as a percentage of the population. Conflicting trends of economic development, evangelism, and fertility complicate predictions of world religiosity. Per a [Pew Research Center](http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/) study from 2015, as reported by [Psychology Today](https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-secular-life/201510/how-many-atheists-are-there): 1.1 billion people [do not identify with any religion]... which equals about 16.5% of the global adult population. As such, “non-religious” is actually the third largest “religion” in the world, coming only behind Christianity (in first place) and Islam (in second). @@ -5227,6 +5296,11 @@ Considering all of these conflicting factors, go ahead and second-guess Pew's pr What will the portion of the global population identifying as ""religiously unaffiliated"" be in 2050? The resolution occurs if/when a study of comparable quality, scope, and methods to the [Pew study](http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2014/01/global-religion-full.pdf) is published before 2060 quoting a number for ""religiously unaffiliated"" pertaining to some date within 3 years of 2050. Note that this group includes atheist and agnostic, but also people who do not identify with any particular religion in surveys (but who may nonetheless have non-specific spiritual or cultural belief systems). ","[]",183,,3 +"Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/","Metaculus","Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). +Whereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%. +It is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars? +This question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",425,,3 "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/","Metaculus","[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK. It was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)). It was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)). @@ -5237,11 +5311,6 @@ This question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public Note that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery. Note that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",74,,3 -"Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/","Metaculus","Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). -Whereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%. -It is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars? -This question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",424,,3 "Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/487/hutter-prize-when-will-a-compression-method-achieve-1-bit-per-character-on-a-100mb-sample-of-wikipedia/","Metaculus","The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 50,000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is ""to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI."" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the ""Human World Knowledge,"" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik8 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 100MB extract from Wikipedia. Since 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more ""understanding"" and intelligence in general. The bits-per-character (the number of bits required per character) for compression of enwiki8 is the de-facto measurement unit for Hutter Prize compression progression. In 2016, the state of the art was set at 1.313 bits-per-character using [Suprisal-Driven Zoneout](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e9bc/83f9ff502bec9cffb750468f76fdfcf5dd05.pdf?_ga=1.27297145.452266805.1483390947), a regularization method for RNN. @@ -5262,7 +5331,7 @@ Even 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become p Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025? The acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources. If Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",383,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",385,,3 "When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/","Metaculus","The English Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has approximately 6 million articles at the time of writing this question. This question resolves on the date during which the 10 millionth Wikipedia article is created, according to official internal statistics from Wikipedia, such as [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics). ","[]",90,,3 @@ -5277,7 +5346,7 @@ When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus. While this question is intended as an operationalization of ""herd immunity"", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator. If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. -","[]",682,,3 +","[]",683,,3 "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/","Metaculus","Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales. Our [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. EV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19. @@ -5455,6 +5524,12 @@ This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 203 If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution. Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/). ","[]",14,,3 +"Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/","Metaculus","By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [""maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.""](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [""Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.""](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback) +According to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be. +Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? +Will FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office? +The question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",423,,3 "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/","Metaculus","Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time. In 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans. @@ -5466,19 +5541,13 @@ When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space? ---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. ---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. ","[]",96,,3 -"Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/","Metaculus","By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [""maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.""](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [""Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.""](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback) -According to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be. -Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? -Will FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office? -The question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",422,,3 "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/","Metaculus","[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)). A tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests). As of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation. Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021? This question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt. There have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",217,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",218,,3 "When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/","Metaculus","The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data). On March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/). This question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date): @@ -5562,7 +5631,7 @@ For comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://d Also recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently. I have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. This question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",250,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",252,,3 "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/","Metaculus","The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact. Will the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate. @@ -5758,17 +5827,17 @@ It's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will Can we get there before the 2030s? Resolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",463,,3 -"Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6710/us-school-staff-to-get-1st-dose-by-31-march/","Metaculus","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [""every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program. -Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March? -This will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. -If there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively. -5 March edit: For this to resolve negatively, the >= 50 education staff would have had to have tried to make an appointment at least 10 days before the end of the month — so no later than 21 March. If they tried making appointments after 21 March and could not receive their first dose until sometime after 31 March, this would not count toward negative resolution. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",137,,3 "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/","Metaculus","One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. In the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030? This question resolves as the ""Number of jobs"" for the profession ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT. ","[]",66,,3 +"Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6710/us-school-staff-to-get-1st-dose-by-31-march/","Metaculus","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [""every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program. +Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March? +This will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. +If there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively. +5 March edit: For this to resolve negatively, the >= 50 education staff would have had to have tried to make an appointment at least 10 days before the end of the month — so no later than 21 March. If they tried making appointments after 21 March and could not receive their first dose until sometime after 31 March, this would not count toward negative resolution. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",138,,3 "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/","Metaculus","Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S. The World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/). Will the WSOP return to a live format in 2021? @@ -5823,7 +5892,7 @@ The Crete earthquake was followed by a tsunami which devastated the southern and Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021? This question will resolve if by Dec. 31 2021 an earthquake measuring 7.0 or larger occurring either underneath or within 80 Kilometres from sea shores of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, being defined as a line running from Southern Sicily thru Malta to Misrata Libya. This will include the whole Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea, and Leviathan Sea. Earthquake must be verified by either: European-Mediterranean Seismological Center Earthquake Track -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",40,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",41,,3 "What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/","Metaculus","Context ======= @@ -5847,7 +5916,7 @@ This resolves as the number of hen eggs produced in the year ending November 30t Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction. On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating? This question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",159,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",160,,3 "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6769/cumulative-two-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/","Metaculus","Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine). The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are two-dose vaccines, while the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is single-dose. As of 3 March 2021, 26,957,804 people have received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Public health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. @@ -5862,7 +5931,7 @@ This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive 2 dose "Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6551/us-vaccination-rate-exceeds-3m-daily-doses/","Metaculus","The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question. Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021? Resolves to ""yes"" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to ""no"" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",110,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",130,,3 "When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6168/meetings-of-six-people-outside-in-england/","Metaculus","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc). The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). Before this lockdown, it was possible in some regions (those in 'tier 3' or below out of four) to meet others in public outdoor places, such as beaches or parks, but only in groups of up to 6 people. @@ -5907,22 +5976,6 @@ What will the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 U Resolution This question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.056/kWh in 2018 USD. ","[]",108,,3 -"What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/","Metaculus","Context -======= - -The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted. -The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market. -Another important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). -Related questions: -[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/) -[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/) -What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously. -","[]",59,,3 "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6528/few-shot-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). Few-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf). @@ -6320,7 +6373,7 @@ By ""cost-per-hour"" we mean the cost to run an emulation for an hour of ""subje "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/","Metaculus","[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding. This question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? Resolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1253,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1254,,3 "How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5576/current-species-of-pangolin-remaining-in-2050/","Metaculus","[Pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin) are an order of mammals found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. There are eight currently extant species of pangolin. One the [IUCN red list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUCN_Red_List), three of these ([Phillipine pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_pangolin), [Chinese pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_pangolin) and [Sunda pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_pangolin)) are listed as critically endangered, three ([Tree pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_pangolin), [Indian pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_pangolin) and [Giant pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_pangolin)) are listed as endangered and two ([Long-tailed pangolins](Long-tailed pangolin) and [Ground pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_pangolin)) are listed as vulnerable. The endangerment of pangolins is caused by a combination of [poaching](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin_trade) and deforestation. How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050? This will resolve at the number of currently known species of pangolin that are not classified as ""extinct"" or ""critically endangered (possibly extinct)"" by the latest version of the [IUCN Red List](https://www.iucnredlist.org/) as of the end of 2050. If new species are discovered, they will not count towards the total number. @@ -6364,7 +6417,7 @@ If one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will repl If it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. If there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. The maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. -","[]",184,,3 +","[]",197,,3 "What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/","Metaculus","The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. [The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) but has been static since the 1980s. [This is consistent with most women's athletics records](https://sportsscientists.com/2016/08/world-records-fossils/) and is likely related to the systemtic doping from that era. It remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast. @@ -6449,7 +6502,7 @@ In response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to c Before Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung? All transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation. For the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",255,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",256,,3 "Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1653/will-functional-respirocytes-be-used-successfully-in-any-mammal-before-2035/","Metaculus","[Respirocytes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respirocyte) are hypothetical artificial red blood cells that are intended to emulate the function of their organic counterparts, so as to supplement or replace the function of much of the human body's normal respiratory system. Respirocytes were proposed by Robert A. Freitas Jr in his 1998 paper [""A Mechanical Artificial Red Blood Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology"".](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html) The respirocyte is a bloodborne 1-micron-diameter spherical nanomedical device designed by Robert A. Freitas Jr. The device acts as an artificial mechanical red blood cell. It is designed as a diamondoid 1000-atmosphere pressure vessel with active pumping powered by endogenous serum glucose, and can deliver 236 times more oxygen to the tissues per unit volume than natural red cells while simultaneously managing carbonic acidity. An individual respirocyte consists of 18 billion precisely arranged structural atoms plus 9 billion temporarily resident molecules when fully loaded. An onboard nanocomputer and numerous chemical and pressure sensors allow the device to exhibit behaviors of modest complexity, remotely reprogrammable by the physician via externally applied acoustic signals. @@ -6567,7 +6620,7 @@ This question will resolve as positive when a commercial product with the expres Galileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. Two upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. Question is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",142,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",144,,3 "What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/","Metaculus","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/). The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? @@ -6602,7 +6655,7 @@ The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from By March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal. By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD? The price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -","[]",16,,3 +","[]",18,,3 "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/","Metaculus","Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures. Despite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media) In October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea. @@ -6613,7 +6666,7 @@ Analysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger wea Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022? This question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice. This question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",204,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",206,,3 "Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/","Metaculus","Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad. It was [previously asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/), whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential. Some Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products. @@ -6640,12 +6693,6 @@ Will a 4-year GDP doubling complete (slow takeoff) before a 1-year doubling (fas Resolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units). There will be an ambiguous resolution if there is no 4 year (nor 1 year) doubling interval by 2050, to isolate specifically the takeoff speed from other things like the chances of no takeoff occurring at all or human extinction. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",293,,3 -"Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/","Metaculus","[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. -Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft. -This question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050? -By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism. -To resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",254,,3 "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/","Metaculus","As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018. In any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels? Resolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question. @@ -6705,6 +6752,14 @@ The AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human. The question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors. If the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",149,,3 +"Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/","Metaculus","[AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. d/b/a AMC Theatres,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMC_Theatres) is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Regal and Cinemark Theatres. After acquiring Odeon Cinemas, UCI Cinemas, and Carmike Cinemas in 2016, it became the largest movie theater chain in both the world and the United States. It has 2,200 screens in 244 theatres in Europe and over 8,200 screens in 661 theatres in the United States. +As of March 18, 2020, all AMC theaters were temporarily closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. On August 20, 2020, [AMC resumed theatre operations with offerings of $0.15 tickets.](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/media/amc-reopening-ticket-prices/index.html) +In October 2020, the company [announced that ""existing cash resources would be largely depleted by the end of 2020 or early 2021.""](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/13/21514822/amc-theaters-cash-movies-delays-closing-pandemic-debt-regal) This sparked concerns that the company may seek bankruptcy protection. +On October 13 2020, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/amc-theaters-said-to-mull-bankruptcy-after-moviegoers-stay-home) that AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. is considering a range of options that include a potential bankruptcy to ease its debt load as the pandemic keeps moviegoers from attending and studios from supplying films. As of October 23 2020, [AMC's stock is down more than 60% year-to-date.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFoYAXucyOJCdwVmRgGg_ZpQJatNSX43ixsB0TH5_QQFL1g-qDzbWTm5a7eQbNrjP_D4-tkDIGR0H6huvlBVn7TBpMTUDcXbmZHJoemmX1lj1Cgob9aBu6BfY9kCZrGzF3o9POw6vdqTHH1o9tWk9mr3kEZYkxcfCVKqhmr7lQ8H) +Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021? +This question resolves positively if at any time before 1 April 2021, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. or any parent company thereof submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code. No court ruling need be made for a positive resolution; only a filing. +If AMC is acquired before this question resolves, the resolution will depend on whether the parent company files for bankruptcy before April 2021. If AMC is broken up into multiple companies before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",318,,3 "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/","Metaculus","[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with ""Yes"" or ""No"", was ""Should Scotland be an independent country?"" The ""No"" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. Since 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question ""Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"" with ""Leave,"" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with ""Remain."" The ""Leave"" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history. @@ -6716,15 +6771,7 @@ If, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that In the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States. In the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results. In the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",624,,3 -"Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/","Metaculus","[AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. d/b/a AMC Theatres,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMC_Theatres) is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Regal and Cinemark Theatres. After acquiring Odeon Cinemas, UCI Cinemas, and Carmike Cinemas in 2016, it became the largest movie theater chain in both the world and the United States. It has 2,200 screens in 244 theatres in Europe and over 8,200 screens in 661 theatres in the United States. -As of March 18, 2020, all AMC theaters were temporarily closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. On August 20, 2020, [AMC resumed theatre operations with offerings of $0.15 tickets.](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/media/amc-reopening-ticket-prices/index.html) -In October 2020, the company [announced that ""existing cash resources would be largely depleted by the end of 2020 or early 2021.""](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/13/21514822/amc-theaters-cash-movies-delays-closing-pandemic-debt-regal) This sparked concerns that the company may seek bankruptcy protection. -On October 13 2020, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/amc-theaters-said-to-mull-bankruptcy-after-moviegoers-stay-home) that AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. is considering a range of options that include a potential bankruptcy to ease its debt load as the pandemic keeps moviegoers from attending and studios from supplying films. As of October 23 2020, [AMC's stock is down more than 60% year-to-date.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFoYAXucyOJCdwVmRgGg_ZpQJatNSX43ixsB0TH5_QQFL1g-qDzbWTm5a7eQbNrjP_D4-tkDIGR0H6huvlBVn7TBpMTUDcXbmZHJoemmX1lj1Cgob9aBu6BfY9kCZrGzF3o9POw6vdqTHH1o9tWk9mr3kEZYkxcfCVKqhmr7lQ8H) -Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021? -This question resolves positively if at any time before 1 April 2021, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. or any parent company thereof submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code. No court ruling need be made for a positive resolution; only a filing. -If AMC is acquired before this question resolves, the resolution will depend on whether the parent company files for bankruptcy before April 2021. If AMC is broken up into multiple companies before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",318,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",631,,3 "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -6813,7 +6860,7 @@ In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with More information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election). Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",57,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",61,,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf). The PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively. @@ -6883,7 +6930,7 @@ What will the computation in FLOPS be of this machine system, if running at a sp The point of this question is not really as a prediction, but more as a gathering place for estimates. Fine print: we'll settle for a published estimate accurate to within a factor of 5. The speeds of the systems can be matched up by requiring that similar delays occur between queries and responses in the system as compared to humans, or scaling for this equivalency. Resolves as ambiguous if (a), (b) or (c) don't occur by 2075. (edited 2020-09-13 to fix eval date as 5 years after such a system appears.) -","[]",205,,3 +","[]",206,,3 "When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/","Metaculus","The scientific definition of ""species"" is surprisingly complicated. As this [November 2017 article](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/defining-species-fuzzy-art) from Science News explains: At first glance, “species” is a basic vocabulary word schoolchildren can ace on a test by reciting something close to: a group of living things that create fertile offspring when mating with each other but not when mating with outsiders. Ask scientists who devote careers to designating those species, however, and there’s no typical answer. Scientists do not agree. @@ -6935,6 +6982,19 @@ Resolution is positive if by the end of 2022, a paper or preprint is published i Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex? This question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,,3 +"Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/","Metaculus","[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war. +[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war. +[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact. +As of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict. +In 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, ""I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones"". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare. +This question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun? +This question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise: +1-- +A military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing. +2-- +At least 10 million people are killed in the conflict. +(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third ""described as WWIII"" criterion.) +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",595,,3 "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/","Metaculus","Context ======= @@ -6953,19 +7013,6 @@ Resolution Criteria The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. ","[]",63,,3 -"Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/","Metaculus","[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war. -[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war. -[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact. -As of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict. -In 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, ""I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones"". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare. -This question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun? -This question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise: -1-- -A military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing. -2-- -At least 10 million people are killed in the conflict. -(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third ""described as WWIII"" criterion.) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",592,,3 "Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/","Metaculus","In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP, a new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission. The profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission: @@ -7043,7 +7090,7 @@ In November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more Based on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4. When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19? This question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023. -","[]",88,,3 +","[]",90,,3 "Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/","Metaculus","[James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford) was the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been in preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at [Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation). His preservation was rather primitive and late: Bedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural causes related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern cryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was primitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and 85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term cryogenics […]. @@ -7112,7 +7159,7 @@ In 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the Univ Therefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.) N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",698,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",699,,3 "When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/","Metaculus","Recently, the world quietly marked a significant milestone. For the first time, life expectancy at birth for both sexes now exceeds 50 years in all countries, [with Sierra Leone the lowest at 50.1 years.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy) As of January 2019, there are no countries outside of Sub-Saharan Africa where the life expectancy at birth for both sexes is below 60. This question asks: When, for the first time, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 60 years in all countries simultaneously? By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 60 years for women and men individually. @@ -7363,7 +7410,7 @@ If the question has not resolved by January 1 2100, it resolves ambiguously. "How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/","Metaculus","Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015. How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT? See also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/) -","[]",202,,3 +","[]",205,,3 "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6439/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3. @@ -7402,7 +7449,7 @@ If or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose pr If an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale. When will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? Resolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request ""build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech."" -","[]",503,,3 +","[]",505,,3 "How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/","Metaculus","Currently, [14 countries](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) allow voting by young people with no major restrictions (as of Jan. 16, 2021). Another 14 countries allow some citizens <18 years of age suffrage with major qualifications, usually related to marriage, employment, or type of election. A number of [movements or proposals to allow minors to vote](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/us/politics/voting-age.html) are active or have been proposed in dozens of countries as of 2021. How many countries will allow people younger than 18 to vote, with no major conditions, in 2026? @@ -7639,7 +7686,7 @@ Similar questions: ---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) ---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) ---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",219,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",221,,3 "What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/","Metaculus","From Wikipedia, A capital gain refers to profit that results from a sale of a capital asset, such as stock, bond or real estate, where the sale price exceeds the purchase price. The gain is the difference between a higher selling price and a lower purchase price. Conversely, a capital loss arises if the proceeds from the sale of a capital asset are less than the purchase price. [...] In the United States of America, individuals and corporations pay U.S. federal income tax on the net total of all their capital gains. The tax rate depends on both the investor's tax bracket and the amount of time the investment was held. Short-term capital gains are taxed at the investor's ordinary income tax rate and are defined as investments held for a year or less before being sold. Long-term capital gains, on dispositions of assets held for more than one year, are taxed at a lower rate. @@ -7805,6 +7852,13 @@ Bitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypt What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? This question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change. ","[]",26,,3 +"Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/","Metaculus","The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response. +This question asks: +Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021? +This question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively. +If coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old. +2 February clarification: A ""significant reduction in immunity"" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",566,,3 "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/","Metaculus","Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. The company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud. More details can be found here: @@ -7821,13 +7875,6 @@ This question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custod The imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard. Convictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",40,,3 -"Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/","Metaculus","The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response. -This question asks: -Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021? -This question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively. -If coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old. -2 February clarification: A ""significant reduction in immunity"" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",565,,3 "Who will win the 'worm wars'?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/","Metaculus","According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained). In GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions. Givewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts: @@ -8012,14 +8059,6 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolves based on the latest BEA [Personal Income and Outlays report](https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income) as of the question resolution date, titled ""Unemployment insurance"", using the seasonally-adjusted annualized figure for 2021 Q1. As of the October 2020 release, this row is on line 26 of Table 1. If no BEA estimates have been released by the question resolution date, this question resolves ambiguously. ","[]",163,,3 -"If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you ""wake up""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/","Metaculus","Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question. -The basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html).) -The ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservation-prize-be-awarded-by-the-brain-preservation-foundation/) regarding the ""large brain preservation prize"" discusses some of the advances. Many questions remain however, including: Is it even in principle possible to reconstruct an individual human mind out of a frozen brain? If so, how much accuracy in preservation is necessary? Do current techniques have the requisite accuracy? How advanced will the reconstruction technology be, and when would/might that exist? etc., etc. -Let's assume that an individual as of the reading of the question signs up with one of the top three (by number of currently preserved individuals). -What is the probability that the individual will ""wake up"" in essentially the same or better form than they died? -We'll consider success if the revived individual has full mental faculties, an essentially complete set of memories of their former life, and a personality that is at least difficult for them or others to discern from the original. We'll assume for these purposes that the individual's last heartbeat (at least for some time) occurs in a hospital or similar setting where the body can be immediately cooled and moved (if not there already) to a facility for cryonic preservation, and that the individual dies with a relatively healthy brain intact. -Note: like a few other Metaculus questions, we don't expect this to actually resolve. Rather it is a ""headline"" question that could fold in the results of others. Suggestions for shorter-term, resolvable questions that would bear upon the probabilities of this one are invited in the comments below. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",557,,3 "How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/","Metaculus","The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions. The [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months: 1-- @@ -8043,6 +8082,14 @@ Only prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success Resolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions. The question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published. ","[]",65,,3 +"If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you ""wake up""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/","Metaculus","Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question. +The basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html).) +The ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservation-prize-be-awarded-by-the-brain-preservation-foundation/) regarding the ""large brain preservation prize"" discusses some of the advances. Many questions remain however, including: Is it even in principle possible to reconstruct an individual human mind out of a frozen brain? If so, how much accuracy in preservation is necessary? Do current techniques have the requisite accuracy? How advanced will the reconstruction technology be, and when would/might that exist? etc., etc. +Let's assume that an individual as of the reading of the question signs up with one of the top three (by number of currently preserved individuals). +What is the probability that the individual will ""wake up"" in essentially the same or better form than they died? +We'll consider success if the revived individual has full mental faculties, an essentially complete set of memories of their former life, and a personality that is at least difficult for them or others to discern from the original. We'll assume for these purposes that the individual's last heartbeat (at least for some time) occurs in a hospital or similar setting where the body can be immediately cooled and moved (if not there already) to a facility for cryonic preservation, and that the individual dies with a relatively healthy brain intact. +Note: like a few other Metaculus questions, we don't expect this to actually resolve. Rather it is a ""headline"" question that could fold in the results of others. Suggestions for shorter-term, resolvable questions that would bear upon the probabilities of this one are invited in the comments below. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",558,,3 "When will Croatia adopt the euro?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/","Metaculus","Croatia is obligated to switch from its current currency, the kuna, and [begin using the euro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia_and_the_euro) as a consequence of its membership in the European Union. It was initially expected that Croatia would transition in 2019. At that time several criteria for entering the [eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone) were not yet met, so the expected entry date was pushed back. This question asks, When will Croatia adopt the euro? This question resolves positively on the date Croatia adopts the euro as its sole official currency. This information will be published by the [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/croatia_en). It will also be reported in reputable media such as The Economist, Reuters, and Bloomberg. The question resolves ambiguously if Croatia is no longer a part of the EU or if the euro stops existing by that time. @@ -8389,7 +8436,7 @@ In [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_ [Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election. What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election? This question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously. -","[]",129,,3 +","[]",131,,3 "A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/","Metaculus","Proteins are large, complex molecules essential in sustaining life. Nearly every function our body performs—contracting muscles, sensing light, or turning food into energy—can be traced back to one or more proteins and how they move and change. The recipes for those proteins—called genes—are encoded in our DNA. What any given protein can do depends on its unique 3D structure. For example, antibody proteins that make up our immune systems are ‘Y-shaped’, and are akin to unique hooks. By latching on to viruses and bacteria, antibody proteins are able to detect and tag disease-causing microorganisms for extermination. Similarly, collagen proteins are shaped like cords, which transmit tension between cartilage, ligaments, bones, and skin. Other types of proteins include CRISPR and Cas9, which act like scissors and cut and paste DNA; antifreeze proteins, whose 3D structure allows them to bind to ice crystals and prevent organisms from freezing; and ribosomes that act like a programmed assembly line, which help build proteins themselves. @@ -8616,7 +8663,7 @@ Closes retroactively 1 month prior to the launch leading to the landing. Resolve "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/","Metaculus","As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021? The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted. -","[]",196,,3 +","[]",198,,3 "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/","Metaculus","At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries. In its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. On December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. @@ -8717,7 +8764,7 @@ Be able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human Be able to learn the classic Atari game ""Montezuma's revenge"" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of ""introspection"" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.) Resolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public. -","[]",471,,3 +","[]",473,,3 "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/","Metaculus","Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner. In a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) currently has a median prediction of 60%. In another question on the possibility of progress toward human-machine intelligence parity surprising us, a similar median estimate is given. In the aforementioned survey, experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously. @@ -8780,7 +8827,7 @@ This will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as me Any conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included. Conflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support. Deaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",199,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",200,,3 "When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/","Metaculus","Background ========== @@ -8889,7 +8936,7 @@ Many people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi [AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that Although it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used. At some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025? -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",372,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",373,,3 "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/","Metaculus","A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention. Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls. (source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen)) @@ -9461,13 +9508,6 @@ The child must be born alive, but need not survive for any particular length of A 'human' shall be taken to mean an anatomically modern human that would be able (upon sexual maturity) to successfully breed, without technological assistance, with members of the species homo sapiens found on Earth in 2019. 'Mind uploads,' 'EMs' and other non-biological entities which may or may not be commonly considered 'human' at some point in the future are expressly excluded. 'Birth' shall be taken to mean the explulsion of a child from the uterus of a living human female, either by natural means or by Caesarean section. [Extracorporeal pregnancies,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus) including but not limited to arrangements like [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) are specifically excluded. ","[]",163,,3 -"Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/","Metaculus","On October 29, 2020, CNBC host Scott Wapner [tweeted](https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC): -Hearing Tim Cook tell @CNBCJosh that the virus makes it too hard to give guidance highlights a big risk for the economy — that while we won’t lock down again, businesses could decide to shut their stores for periods rather than risk their customers or employees getting sick. -Let's focus on Apple, since the company presumably has the resources and wherewithal to be able to implement best practice preventive measures, and understanding the precautions that they choose to implement may help shed light on the likely decisions of similar retail businesses. -The ""always open"" flagship [5th Ave Apple Store](https://www.apple.com/retail/fifthavenue/) location in New York City is providing face masks to shoppers, enforcing social distancing, doing temperature checks, and performing continuous cleaning, according to the store's website. But will these measures be enough to prevent a significant store closure during the 2020/2021 winter season? -Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021? -Resolution will be determined according to announcements made by Apple regarding opening and closing dates of their 5th Ave location. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",247,,3 "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/","Metaculus","Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation. To pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this question asks: Will any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200? @@ -9532,6 +9572,13 @@ Furthermore, one of the two conditions must be true: ---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. Hence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",141,,3 +"2˚C global warming by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/","Metaculus","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy. +Therefore, it is asked: +Will there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880. +(Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.) +Data for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 1.8 ˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway. +The last possible set of 5 years to satisfy the requirement would be 2095-2099, so the last possible resolution date would be around mid-2100, in order to make sure that there are no uncertainties regarding the 2099 climate data. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",364,,3 "What will US house prices be at the end of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/","Metaculus","House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble) What will US house prices be at the end of 2030? What will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2030? @@ -9541,13 +9588,6 @@ For example: ---for Sep-2020 this value is: If these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously. ","[]",47,,3 -"2˚C global warming by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/","Metaculus","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy. -Therefore, it is asked: -Will there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880. -(Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.) -Data for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 1.8 ˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway. -The last possible set of 5 years to satisfy the requirement would be 2095-2099, so the last possible resolution date would be around mid-2100, in order to make sure that there are no uncertainties regarding the 2099 climate data. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",362,,3 "Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/","Metaculus","In [a recent press release](https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html) the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds of charging stations across Europe, and others. For this the Volkswagen Group established a [modular platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform), which should enable them to achieve these numbers. Different brands of the VW group like Porsche, Audi, Škoda, and Seat are already making use of and building models with the MEB, set to be sold come 2020. Let’s check one of their (cl)aims with this prediction. @@ -9606,7 +9646,7 @@ This question will resolve ambiguously if the report is not published before the The timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX ""gets lucky and things go according to plan"", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. There have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline. Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030? -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5093,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5097,,3 "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/","Metaculus","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. @@ -9874,7 +9914,7 @@ Sadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some So far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life. Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030? Resolves positive for any exoplanet with >5% O2 found before 2030, negative if none are found. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",165,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",166,,3 "Balloons to the edge of space – when?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/441/balloons-to-the-edge-of-space--when/","Metaculus","Among the commercial ventures currently exploring human spaceflight is a small industry dedicated to using balloons instead of rockets. Two companies, US-based [World View enterprises](http://www.worldview.space) and Spain-based [Zero2Infinity](http://www.zero2infinity.space/bloon/) are developing balloon-based services that will take passengers to an altitude of around 36 km. That's short of the [100 km line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kármán_line) that defines actual spaceflight, but is high enough to show passengers the curvature of the earth and [a new perspective on the planet](http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/05/tech/balloons-fly-edge-of-space/) we all call home. Ballooning, the companies point out, is already a part of high altitude history. In 1931 Auguste Piccard and Paul Kipfer [reached the stratosphere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auguste_Piccard) in a balloon, and balloons were used to set altitude skydiving records, most recently [Alan Eustace's 41-km jump in 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Eustace) Balloons do not require the explosive power of a rocket launch, but do require helium, a resource that is becoming more and more scarce. They also require regulatory approval from the US [Federal Aviation Administration](https://www.faa.gov) before beginning flights in the United States, and similar approval from other aviation officials in other countries. Approval from the FAA would take the form of a commercial space transportation license or experimental permit. As of February 2017, only [15 commercial launch licenses are active](https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/licenses/) - none for ballooning ventures. @@ -10431,7 +10471,7 @@ After 10 years of when the offer was first made, what percentage of Americans wi For the offering to count, there must be some sort of public message declaring the offer, and eligibility must be available to at least one hundred million people. The date of offering is the first date where a United States citizen receives a cryonics contract for free on behalf of an organization or person who is widely considered to be offering it as a gift to the general public (at least in the United States), rather than to some specific individuals. Here, a cryonics contract is defined as any legally binding commitment, by an organization plausibly capable of fulfilling it, to provide for cryopreservation of (at least) a person's brain provided that doing so is practically feasible. If it is the case that the government provides the service as a routine procedure, and as such there is no literal contract to sign, the number of people said to be ""signed up"" in this case are the number of people the US Government promises to cryopreserve. As an example, if the US Government promised to preserve all United States citizens, then the proportion of citizens as a percentage of the total population of the United States (according to the latest Census projection) is the percentage of people in America ""signed up for cryonics."" If cryonics is not offered for free to the general public by any organization or person before 2100, then this question resolves ambiguously. -","[]",58,,3 +","[]",60,,3 "Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6459/eu-mercosur-trade-deal-rejected-in-2021/","Metaculus","The European Union–Mercosur free trade agreement is a free trade agreement on which the EU and Mercosur (which consists of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) reached agreement in principle [in 2019](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-trade-mercosur/eu-mercosur-strike-trade-pact-defying-protectionist-wave-idUSKCN1TT2KD). The deal was announced on 28 June at the 2019 G20 Osaka summit after twenty years of negotiations. Although there is agreement in principle, the final texts have not been finalised, signed or ratified and therefore have not entered into force. If ratified, it would represent the largest trade deal struck by both the EU and Mercosur in terms of citizens involved.The trade deal is part of a wider Association Agreement between the two blocs. Once the texts are final and legally revised they will need to be translated in all EU and Mercosur official languages.The texts will then be presented by the European Commission to the Council of Ministers of the European Union for approval. In the Council unanimity is required. If approved the Council will sign the agreement and send it over to the Mercosur countries and to the European Parliament. An EU association agreement must also be approved by the national parliaments of all EU member states. Ratification of the agreement by the national parliaments of the Mercosur countries is also required. The deal has been denounced by European beef [farmers](https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/macron-defends-eu-mercosur-trade-deal-as-farmers-protest/), [environmental](https://www.politico.eu/article/eus-green-trade-promises-face-reality-check-in-the-rainforest/) activists, [animal welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/why-eu-mercosur-agreement-bad-news-european-animals) advocates, and indigenous rights campaigners. Protests against the deal have taken place. Governments and parliaments of the EU member states have also [criticised](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/opposition-eu-mercosur-deal-growing) the agreement. In October 2020 both the [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2020-0252_EN.html) and the European Commissioner for Trade [Valdis Dombrovskis](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/files/commissionners/valdis-dombrovskis/en-dombrovskis-verbatim-report.pdf) have stated that the EU-Mercosur agreement ""cannot be approved as it stands. @@ -10778,7 +10818,7 @@ Or maybe not. Europa is far away. It's bathed in horrific radiation. It's cold. Its environment would be mean to our drills. And there might not even be life there. Meanwhile, other (slightly) more hospitable places – Mars, hint, hint – may also house life. Or maybe boosters of Titan or Enceladus will convince us to go to those worlds first, and we'll find the first alien life there. Or maybe life won't be found at all in the solar system. Or maybe SETI will come through. Or our new mega powerful telescopes will reveal life on extra solar worlds. Or maybe [aliens have already found us](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUHk9FLZMf4)! What's your take? Question resolves positive if humanity by 2045 discovers convincing evidence of life on Europa and does so before detecting extra terrestrial life anywhere else in the universe. Resolves negative if by 2045 extraterrestrial life is found convincingly elsewhere prior to on Europa. Resolves ambiguous if no extraterrestrial life is found by 2045. (Note: extraterrestrial life must be (a) living currently and (b) highly unlikely to be a result of contamination by Earth spacecraft. This leaves open the possibility of life transported from Earth via other non-human-engineered means.) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",352,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",353,,3 "When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1435/when-will-the-longest-spaceflight-of-any-one-person-reach-5-years/","Metaculus","The [ISS year long mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISS_year_long_mission) set out to explore the health effects of long duration spaceflight. Astronaut Scott Kelly and cosmonaut Mikhail Kornienko spent 342 days in space for this mission, checking their health but they were also keeping a journal to write down how they felt. After all, there are more angles to consider than just physical health for these kind of things. But this wasn't the first mission of its kind. There were three other, longer spaceflights, lasting 365, 379 and 437 days respectively. So we wonder: When will longest duration anyone has ever been in space surpass 5 years? @@ -11055,6 +11095,9 @@ If at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95 Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution. edited 2020-03-05 to change the statement from ""typical person"" to ""some identified and significant population of people."" ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",108,,3 +"Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/","Metaculus","Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. +This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",234,,3 "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/","Metaculus","Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth. Consider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html): Malaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa. @@ -11069,9 +11112,6 @@ Ahh, but with great power comes great responsibility. Will we go through with th Before the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive? The positive resolution, a credible estimate of the mosquito population should be consistent with zero, and there should be a compelling argument that this is due to the gene drive (e.g. other species of mosquitos would continue to exist, other methods of controlling this species would have failed, etc.) ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",226,,3 -"Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/","Metaculus","Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. -This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",233,,3 "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/","Metaculus","The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf). The number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion. How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2028-2030 period? @@ -11221,14 +11261,6 @@ Related Questions ---[When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/) ---[How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) ","[]",52,,3 -"What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/","Metaculus","Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. -We use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption). -However, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. -The US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.): -“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.” -What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021? -Resolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets. -","[]",229,,3 "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/","Metaculus","In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared ""commercially extinct"", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection. Then, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency. Hope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish. @@ -11239,6 +11271,14 @@ A few fine points: ---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. ---""Available"" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",73,,3 +"What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/","Metaculus","Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. +We use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption). +However, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. +The US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.): +“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.” +What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021? +Resolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets. +","[]",230,,3 "What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/","Metaculus","What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election? This question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's deflator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)). If Joe Biden is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously. @@ -11496,13 +11536,6 @@ Cites Niven and Kao Pre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task) If the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold. ","[]",70,,3 -"When will the VIX index climb above 50?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/","Metaculus","The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market. -It represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%. -Between 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX). -The question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count. -Companion question: ----[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) -","[]",102,,3 "Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/","Metaculus","Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al., 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Solar radiation management (SRM) supposes that deliberate addition of aerosol to the stratosphere could reduce climate risks by partially offsetting the radiative forcing from accumulating greenhouse gases. The deployment stratospheric sulfate aerosols have been proposed as a method to reflect more energy away from the planet, by increasing the planetary albedo, and thereby cool the planet, ameliorating some of the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131). According to [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131), sulphate aerosols have at least two cooling effects: In the stratosphere they act to reflect incoming solar energy (the ‘aerosol direct effect’), but also act as [cloud condensation nuclei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_condensation_nuclei), influencing the size of cloud droplets and the persistence or lifetime of clouds (the ‘aerosol indirect effect’) and thus the reflectivity of clouds. @@ -11541,7 +11574,7 @@ Some specifics: ---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. ---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). ---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",402,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",402,,3 "What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/","Metaculus","As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon. Currently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb). On January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service? @@ -11717,9 +11750,6 @@ The company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.] This question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025? Resolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",387,,3 -"Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/","Metaculus","Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born? -If there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously. -","[]",71,,3 "Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/","Metaculus","In the quest for ""strong"" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is ""brain emulation,"" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. In an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such ""Ems"" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.) There is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/) @@ -11727,7 +11757,10 @@ To gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of ""Ems" Will the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains? Resolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then. (Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",427,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",428,,3 +"Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/","Metaculus","Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born? +If there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously. +","[]",71,,3 "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/","Metaculus","Context ======= @@ -11875,7 +11908,7 @@ When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth fo ---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. ---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same ""B10XX"" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that ""this stage previously flew the ABC mission"", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. ---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. -","[]",176,,3 +","[]",178,,3 "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/","Metaculus","The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030? The question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. Resolution details: @@ -11985,7 +12018,7 @@ Haven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https: ON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. Will we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive. Question resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",471,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",473,,3 "Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/","Metaculus","The [International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER) is an international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject. It is an experimental [tokamak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokamak) nuclear fusion reactor which will be the world's largest magnetic confinement plasma physics experiment. With thirty-five participating nations and an expected price tag [in excess of €20 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER#Funding), it is one of the largest international [scientific megaprojects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_megaprojects#Science_projects). ITER began in 1985 as a Reagan–Gorbachev initiative with the equal participation of the Soviet Union, the European Atomic Energy Community, the United States, and Japan through the 1988–1998 initial design phases. @@ -12020,7 +12053,7 @@ Related Questions: Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)? The question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason. The question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",46,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",51,,3 "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/","Metaculus","A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) There are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. Some identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. @@ -12041,7 +12074,7 @@ This question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds For the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose). Previously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference: This question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",434,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",435,,3 "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/","Metaculus","A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference. We live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states ""judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour""; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional. Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030? @@ -12248,12 +12281,6 @@ Unsurprisingly, astronomers and space geeks everywhere are champing at the bit t Will the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024? Resolution is positive if by major media account ""first light"" (which is a pretty standard term) has been achieved by start of 2025. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",124,,3 -"What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/","Metaculus","The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. -Globally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. -A [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100. -What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050? -Resolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously. -","[]",29,,3 "Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6425/the-future-of-wallstreetbets/","Metaculus","The well-known subreddit /r/wallstreetbets has attracted significant media attention in the past week because of the ongoing short squeeze of GameStop (GME), which has caused the stock price to skyrocket. As a result, multiple hedge funds who were shorting GME incurred significant losses. On Jan 27th 2020, the official wallstreetbets Discord server was banned, and the subreddit was made private for 56 minutes, leading to speculation that the subreddit could be banned. [In a heavily upvoted post, one user described the ongoing situation as ""an existential threat to our community"".](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l6izw5/stay_calm_a_quick_explanation_about_why_the_sub/) [CBS: How Reddit posters made millions as Wall Street lost billions on GameStop's wild stock ride](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wallstreetbets-reddit-gamestop/) [Vox: The GameStop stock frenzy, explained](https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22249458/gamestop-stock-wallstreetbets-reddit-citron) @@ -12263,6 +12290,12 @@ This question resolves positively if the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets is temporar This question resolves ambiguously if Reddit ceases to exist as a website or company before Jan 1st, 2022. This question resolves negatively otherwise. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",379,,3 +"What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/","Metaculus","The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. +Globally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. +A [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100. +What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050? +Resolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously. +","[]",33,,3 "What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/","Metaculus","Stunning is the process of rendering animals immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food to eliminate pain, discomfort and stress from the procedure [(FAO, 2001)](http://www.fao.org/3/x6909e/x6909e09.htm). In the EU, [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) requires that all animals to be killed for human consumption must be stunned before they are slaughtered, meaning that they should be unconscious when they are killed to avoid suffering. There are, however, some exceptions to this rule, founded on the cultural traditions or religious rites of a number of sectors of the populations [(EU, 2019)](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/practice/slaughter_en). Yet, while includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009) due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. @@ -12469,11 +12502,7 @@ Here are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scien ---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. What do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen? Question resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",366,,3 -"Will the Open Courts Act become law?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/","Metaculus","The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records. -Will the Open Courts Act become law? -This question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",68,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",368,,3 "What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/","Metaculus","The [inequality-adjusted human development index can be described as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI), ""the level of human development when inequality is accounted for,"" whereas the Human Development Index itself, from which the IHDI is derived, is ""an index of potential human development (or the maximum IHDI that could be achieved if there were no inequality)."" While the US is currently ranked 15 on the human development index, [it's ranked 28](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI#List) on the inequality adjusted index. What will the rank of the US be in the 2035 report, as published by the United Nations Development Programme? @@ -12497,6 +12526,10 @@ If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-construct Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100. ","[]",227,,3 +"Will the Open Courts Act become law?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/","Metaculus","The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records. +Will the Open Courts Act become law? +This question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively. +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",69,,3 "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/","Metaculus","Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture. When will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT? Define a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese. @@ -12572,7 +12605,7 @@ This question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1 Question: When will the United States admit a new state? This question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A ""new state"" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019. It resolves as ""> Dec 31, 2050"" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050. -","[]",161,,3 +","[]",162,,3 "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/","Metaculus","The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf): P4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS. According to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030. @@ -12694,7 +12727,7 @@ In June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term This question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia? This question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. In the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President. -","[]",124,,3 +","[]",125,,3 "How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/","Metaculus","A recent [NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/business/passengers-drivers-pay-uber-lyft.html?em_pos=medium&ref=headline&nl_art=7&te=1&nl=upshot&emc=edit_up_20190603) asks whether drivers or riders will pay for Uber's (and Lyft's) future profitability. This could be impacted by Uber's business model choices, the drivers' and riders' preferences, and technology (which could remove drivers from this equation altogether). This question asks: What will be the sum of the fares (in 2019 €) of an UberX ride from Tallinn to Amsterdam, from Amsterdam to Lisbon, from Lisbon to Athens on the 12th of June, 2024 at 3PM? @@ -12721,7 +12754,7 @@ In order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet sever ---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. ---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. ---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. -","[]",229,,3 +","[]",230,,3 "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/","Metaculus","The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions. The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at ""somewhere between one out of three and even"". Twenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/). There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover, most of these incidents on our timeline were reported by US sources, and there is no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea. @@ -13082,7 +13115,7 @@ For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fissio For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution). The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution. Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as ""Yes"". -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",277,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",280,,3 "When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/","Metaculus","The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency. A promising possibility is [xenotransplantation](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/xenotransplantation), in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.) There are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be [rejected very quickly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Hyperacute_rejection) by human hosts. Second, [pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Porcine_endogenous_retroviruses) (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts. @@ -13351,17 +13384,6 @@ Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",159,,3 -"Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/","Metaculus","There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/) -Japan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics): -2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th -Will they come in the Top 4 again? -Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics -This question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021. -The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: -1--Number of Gold Medals -2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals -3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",62,,3 "What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/","Metaculus","In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a process of fertilization where an egg is combined with sperm outside the human body ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation)). According to the [2015 Assisted Reproductive Technology report](https://www.cdc.gov/art/pdf/2015-report/ART-2015-National-Summary-Report.pdf) (the latest version of the report currently available), 72,913 IVF babies were born in the US in 2015, out of [a total of 3.98m](https://www.statista.com/statistics/195908/number-of-births-in-the-united-states-since-1990/). IVF babies thus accounted for 1.83% of all babies born that year in the United States. This question asks: What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro? Question resolves according to figures given in the 2029 edition of the Assisted Reproductive Technology report. If this report is not issued, the resolution will be determined by figures from the earliest authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the year 2029 and provide IVF birth counts. The number of total babies born in 2029 will be determined by the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm), or if this institute no longer exists, by whichever government entity replaces it. @@ -13577,6 +13599,17 @@ The following situations do not qualify as expropriation: [1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine. [2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,,3 +"What will inflation be in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/","Metaculus","In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops. +On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled ""I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming"". Some excerpts: +The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021... +How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts. +In this question, we test one aspect of this fear: +By what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021? +The question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021. +Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: +---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) +---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) +","[]",207,,3 "When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/","Metaculus","On July 23 2019, it was [announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49073992) that Boris Johnson had been elected as the new Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. He will become Prime Minister on 24 July. This question asks: After taking office on July 24 2019, when will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? Resolves whenever credible media reports state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity, death, or any other reason. @@ -13603,17 +13636,6 @@ If does not resolve before Mar 14, 2027, it resolves as >Mar 14, 2027. If it' Resolution is by Johns Hopkins Covid-19 tracker, [here](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). By average, we mean the sum of previous three days / 3. ","[]",188,,3 -"What will inflation be in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/","Metaculus","In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops. -On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled ""I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming"". Some excerpts: -The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021... -How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts. -In this question, we test one aspect of this fear: -By what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021? -The question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021. -Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: ----[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ----[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) -","[]",205,,3 "How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/","Metaculus","Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon, and reduce the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions. China has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States. However, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. This should see a large number of new registrations in Europe over the next several years. @@ -13757,7 +13779,7 @@ Number 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially We will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason? This question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated Note that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1353,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1358,,3 "Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/","Metaculus","[Tucker Carlson is per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson): Tucker Swanson McNear Carlson[2] (born May 16, 1969)[3] is an American television presenter, political commentator, author, and columnist who has hosted the nightly political talk show Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News since 2016. Carlson became a print journalist in the 1990s, writing for the magazine The Weekly Standard. He was a CNN commentator from 2000 to 2005, and co-host of the network's prime-time news debate program Crossfire from 2001 to 2005. He would go on to host the nightly program Tucker on MSNBC from 2005 to 2008. He has been a political analyst for Fox News since 2009, appearing as guest or guest host on various programs before the launch of his current show. In 2010, Carlson co-founded and served as the initial editor-in-chief of the right-wing news and opinion website The Daily Caller, until selling his ownership stake and leaving the site in 2020.[4] @@ -13964,7 +13986,7 @@ But they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically f ESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but: Will humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100? Will resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with > 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",515,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",517,,3 "Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/","Metaculus","[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs). Since its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees. At that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin ""threads"" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval. diff --git a/data/metaculus-questions.json b/data/metaculus-questions.json index a65416c..aac3329 100644 --- a/data/metaculus-questions.json +++ b/data/metaculus-questions.json @@ -1,4 +1,45 @@ [ + { + "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", + "numforecasts": 141, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n", + "numforecasts": 82, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/", @@ -56,18 +97,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", + "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", - "numforecasts": 221, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" } }, { @@ -111,6 +163,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/", @@ -132,7 +210,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 213, + "numforecasts": 217, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -142,29 +220,78 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/", + "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.\nAustralia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).\nIn late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: \nWill Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 170, + "options": [], + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T14:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.\nThis question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. \nThis question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).\nResolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. \nIn case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.\nOther questions in the series. \nHow many new cases of COVID-19 in:\n---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) \nSimilar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n", + "numforecasts": 983, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 38, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", + "numforecasts": 118, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", + "numforecasts": 81, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -193,21 +320,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 81, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/", @@ -223,6 +335,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", + "numforecasts": 237, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.\nHow many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?\nThis will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. \n", + "numforecasts": 10, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/", @@ -238,6 +380,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-09T13:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.\nHowever, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.\nThese samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. \nBy the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?\n", + "numforecasts": 146, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/", @@ -265,18 +433,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/", + "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 172, + "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" } }, { @@ -294,6 +477,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n", + "numforecasts": 175, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.\nWill any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.\n", + "numforecasts": 28, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will Blue Origin's \"New Glenn\" rocket complete its first successful test flight?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/", @@ -309,21 +533,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.\n[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?\nIf /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as \"> 2025-12-31\".\n", - "numforecasts": 103, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/", @@ -340,18 +549,115 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/", + "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n", - "numforecasts": 28, + "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T03:10:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", + "numforecasts": 174, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities.\n[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time.\nHow many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 58, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-20T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", + "numforecasts": 63, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n", + "numforecasts": 167, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 103, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -370,18 +676,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", + "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n", - "numforecasts": 150, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n", + "numforecasts": 131, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -411,74 +728,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/", + "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 125, + "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n", + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", - "numforecasts": 214, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n", - "numforecasts": 72, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -497,18 +758,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/", + "title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n", + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -537,6 +798,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n", + "numforecasts": 107, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n", + "numforecasts": 34, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/", @@ -564,44 +855,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/", + "title": "Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n", - "numforecasts": 93, + "description": "On October 29, 2020, CNBC host Scott Wapner [tweeted](https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC):\nHearing Tim Cook tell @CNBCJosh that the virus makes it too hard to give guidance highlights a big risk for the economy — that while we won’t lock down again, businesses could decide to shut their stores for periods rather than risk their customers or employees getting sick.\nLet's focus on Apple, since the company presumably has the resources and wherewithal to be able to implement best practice preventive measures, and understanding the precautions that they choose to implement may help shed light on the likely decisions of similar retail businesses.\nThe \"always open\" flagship [5th Ave Apple Store](https://www.apple.com/retail/fifthavenue/) location in New York City is providing face masks to shoppers, enforcing social distancing, doing temperature checks, and performing continuous cleaning, according to the store's website. But will these measures be enough to prevent a significant store closure during the 2020/2021 winter season?\nWill Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?\nResolution will be determined according to announcements made by Apple regarding opening and closing dates of their 5th Ave location.\n", + "numforecasts": 247, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-02T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n", - "numforecasts": 241, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-02-15T20:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T19:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -619,6 +895,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n", + "numforecasts": 241, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 58, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/", @@ -635,44 +941,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", + "title": "How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "description": "Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nHow many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report?\nResolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved.\nRelated question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/)\n", + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", - "numforecasts": 1169, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2032-06-11T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -732,44 +1012,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/", + "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: \n---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be \"commonplace\" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. \n---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty \"with 99.9 per cent accuracy\" \n---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour \"indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods\", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. \n---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost \"error-free\" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. \n---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become \"commonplace\" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study \n---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past \n---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century \n---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required \n---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying \nWhat percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)\nWhat percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?\nIn 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. \nExamples: \n---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. \n---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. \n---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. \nThe term \"robotic judges\" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase \"Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying\" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. \n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-02-15T00:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z" } }, { @@ -799,29 +1053,55 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/", + "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", + "numforecasts": 12, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.57, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", + "numforecasts": 137, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -839,21 +1119,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", @@ -869,6 +1134,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris.\nThe latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV).\nWhen will GTA VI be released?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. \nThis date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.\n", + "numforecasts": 57, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", + "numforecasts": 575, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/", @@ -895,6 +1201,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 256, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/", @@ -911,18 +1243,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", - "numforecasts": 146, + "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 74, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -952,12 +1310,12 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/", + "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -967,29 +1325,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", + "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1044,58 +1402,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 58, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 102, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/", @@ -1112,59 +1418,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/", + "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n", - "numforecasts": 188, + "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n", + "numforecasts": 106, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n", - "numforecasts": 91, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-04-27T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/", + "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n", + "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1194,122 +1474,115 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", - "numforecasts": 82, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 125, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n", - "numforecasts": 16, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n", - "numforecasts": 55, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/", + "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n", + "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:24:03Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:21:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n", + "numforecasts": 13, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810.\nA plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv).\nWhat will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04.\n", + "numforecasts": 92, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023.\nThe \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).\nWill the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?\nThis question resolves \"yes\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\nThis question resolves \"no\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\n", + "numforecasts": 22, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1328,18 +1601,145 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/", + "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n", - "numforecasts": 18, + "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n", + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6777/will-brazil-have-2000-covid-deaths-per-day/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "During the first wave in Brazil, the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths peaked at just over 1,050 deaths. Now, while total official deaths surpass 270,000, the country is experiencing a second deadlier wave, with [record-breaking](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425) COVID-19 deaths per day. Vaccination is still at a [slow pace](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/opinion/brazil-covid-vaccines.html) and a new coronavirus variant, [P1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/brazil-covid-variant-p1-britain) (more transmissible and with some chance to [evade the immune protection](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html) of previous illness), is imposing large stress over the national healthcare system, already close to its [full capacity](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-in-brazil-overwhelms-local-hospitals-hits-younger-patients-11614705337).\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths equal to or above 2,500 in Brazil before 1 June 2021 according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil?country=~BRA).\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.\nThe 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar [question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/#comment-47286). \n", + "numforecasts": 39, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the VIX index climb above 50?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.\nIt represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.\nBetween 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).\nThe question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.\nCompanion question:\n---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) \n", + "numforecasts": 104, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will PHP die?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 96, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", + "numforecasts": 90, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) \nUniversal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. \n", + "numforecasts": 13, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-03-14T20:35:35.109000Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T15:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", + "numforecasts": 61, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.\nThis question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? \nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.\n", + "numforecasts": 237, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1369,96 +1769,89 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", - "numforecasts": 109, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/", + "title": "When will One Piece end?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "description": "It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.).\nSo when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published?\nThis question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time).\nThis question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/", + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6385/vaccine-doses-administered-germany-by-april/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 22, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-25T14:31:11Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-03-31T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 247, + "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n", + "numforecasts": 196, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n", + "numforecasts": 35, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1477,70 +1870,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", + "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", + "numforecasts": 168, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", - "numforecasts": 117, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", - "numforecasts": 42, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1588,21 +1940,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", - "numforecasts": 86, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/", @@ -1618,6 +1955,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", + "numforecasts": 86, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/", @@ -1644,6 +1996,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052)\nData of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html).\nWhen will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?\nResolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp.\nThe question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase.\nResolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.\n", + "numforecasts": 20, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/", @@ -1659,21 +2026,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", - "numforecasts": 152, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/", @@ -1690,44 +2042,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", + "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 141, + "options": [], + "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n", + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z" } }, { - "title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/", + "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n", - "numforecasts": 82, + "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", + "numforecasts": 153, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1745,32 +2086,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", @@ -1853,32 +2168,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 216, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/", @@ -1895,29 +2184,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/", + "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", + "numforecasts": 221, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.\nWhen will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?\nTo qualify as a \"top\", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.\nThis question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.\nIf QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.\nIf the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \nEdit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. \n", + "numforecasts": 104, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2043,6 +2347,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", + "numforecasts": 37, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/", @@ -2103,6 +2422,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n", + "numforecasts": 61, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-02T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-19T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/", @@ -2129,36 +2463,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n", - "numforecasts": 60, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-19T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/", @@ -2174,21 +2478,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.\nThis question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. \nThis question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).\nResolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. \nIn case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.\nOther questions in the series. \nHow many new cases of COVID-19 in:\n---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) \nSimilar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n", - "numforecasts": 983, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/", @@ -2215,21 +2504,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 38, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/", @@ -2409,54 +2683,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.\nWhen will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?\nTo qualify as a \"top\", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.\nThis question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.\nIf QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.\nIf the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \nEdit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. \n", - "numforecasts": 101, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", @@ -2465,6 +2698,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.46, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n", + "numforecasts": 63, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-07T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How much global warming by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n", + "numforecasts": 480, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/", @@ -2533,18 +2807,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "How much global warming by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/", + "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n", - "numforecasts": 479, + "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2563,48 +2837,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/", + "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", - "numforecasts": 118, + "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 473, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/", + "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", + "numforecasts": 71, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 46, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2637,21 +2896,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", - "numforecasts": 237, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/", @@ -2659,17 +2903,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. \nWho will win? \nResolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.\n", - "numforecasts": 874, + "numforecasts": 875, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-10-18T15:13:45Z", @@ -2695,7 +2939,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 520, + "numforecasts": 521, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", @@ -2801,21 +3045,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/", @@ -2832,18 +3061,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/", + "title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2872,6 +3101,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", @@ -2970,18 +3214,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/", + "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.\nHow many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?\nThis will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. \n", - "numforecasts": 10, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", + "numforecasts": 1177, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3027,7 +3282,7 @@ } ], "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n", - "numforecasts": 82, + "numforecasts": 84, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", @@ -3081,6 +3336,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 61, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:37:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-19T22:37:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/", @@ -3108,55 +3378,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/", + "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.\nHowever, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.\nThese samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. \nBy the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?\n", - "numforecasts": 146, + "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", + "numforecasts": 150, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", - "numforecasts": 196, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -3191,7 +3435,7 @@ } ], "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n
  • A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
  • A single important ‘deployment’ event
  • Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)
    • \n", - "numforecasts": 501, + "numforecasts": 502, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z", @@ -3200,32 +3444,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", - "numforecasts": 150, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/", @@ -3284,7 +3502,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z", @@ -3308,13 +3526,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 54, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n", - "numforecasts": 127, + "numforecasts": 128, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z", @@ -3323,36 +3556,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", - "numforecasts": 73, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", @@ -3383,6 +3586,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 267, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/", @@ -3430,7 +3659,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n", - "numforecasts": 240, + "numforecasts": 241, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", @@ -3455,44 +3684,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.\nWill any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.\n", - "numforecasts": 28, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/", + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3510,6 +3713,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", + "numforecasts": 103, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", @@ -3527,7 +3756,7 @@ } ], "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", - "numforecasts": 95, + "numforecasts": 105, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", @@ -3537,29 +3766,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/", + "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45999999999999996, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n", - "numforecasts": 969, + "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", + "numforecasts": 200, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -3589,29 +3818,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/", + "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31999999999999995, + "probability": 0.45999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n", + "numforecasts": 970, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3645,33 +3874,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/", + "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n", + "numforecasts": 95, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n", - "numforecasts": 45, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3681,17 +3906,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae.\nWill we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050.\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met.\n", - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", @@ -3700,6 +3925,62 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.68, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.31999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n", + "numforecasts": 50, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/", @@ -3727,48 +4008,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/", + "title": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.\nAdditionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.\nWhen will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?\nThis question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.\n", - "numforecasts": 16, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n", + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T17:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", - "numforecasts": 23, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n", - "numforecasts": 128, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3797,6 +4059,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.\nAdditionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.\nWhen will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?\nThis question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.\n", + "numforecasts": 16, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T17:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n", + "numforecasts": 128, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/", @@ -3818,7 +4110,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. \nIn May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), \nThe scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]\nIn 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.\nIf GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\".\n", - "numforecasts": 342, + "numforecasts": 344, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z", @@ -3828,29 +4120,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/", + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", - "numforecasts": 379, + "options": [], + "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3880,29 +4161,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.45999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", - "numforecasts": 174, + "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", + "numforecasts": 381, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -3937,7 +4218,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n", - "numforecasts": 312, + "numforecasts": 313, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z", @@ -3963,7 +4244,7 @@ } ], "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -3972,32 +4253,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 218, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/", @@ -4015,7 +4270,7 @@ } ], "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 170, + "numforecasts": 173, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z", @@ -4024,6 +4279,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n", + "numforecasts": 32, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/", @@ -4041,7 +4322,7 @@ } ], "description": "It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.\nBy 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years or less?\nThe question resolves positively the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "numforecasts": 249, + "numforecasts": 252, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-11T07:00:00Z", @@ -4050,21 +4331,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", - "numforecasts": 105, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/", @@ -4123,7 +4389,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 338, + "numforecasts": 341, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -4132,21 +4398,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities.\n[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time.\nHow many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 58, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-20T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/", @@ -4203,6 +4454,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 92, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/", @@ -4219,18 +4496,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", + "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", + "numforecasts": 570, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" } }, { @@ -4259,47 +4547,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:01:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 28, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", - "numforecasts": 569, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/", @@ -4330,32 +4577,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 63, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/", @@ -4408,36 +4629,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-05-01T20:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n", - "numforecasts": 167, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 103, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/", @@ -4453,6 +4644,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", + "numforecasts": 255, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/", @@ -4470,7 +4676,7 @@ } ], "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 162, + "numforecasts": 165, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", @@ -4479,47 +4685,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 255, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6777/will-brazil-have-2000-covid-deaths-per-day/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.59, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41000000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "During the first wave in Brazil, the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths peaked at just over 1,050 deaths. Now, while total official deaths surpass 270,000, the country is experiencing a second deadlier wave, with [record-breaking](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425) COVID-19 deaths per day. Vaccination is still at a [slow pace](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/opinion/brazil-covid-vaccines.html) and a new coronavirus variant, [P1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/brazil-covid-variant-p1-britain) (more transmissible and with some chance to [evade the immune protection](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html) of previous illness), is imposing large stress over the national healthcare system, already close to its [full capacity](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-in-brazil-overwhelms-local-hospitals-hits-younger-patients-11614705337).\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths equal to or above 2,500 in Brazil before 1 June 2021 according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil?country=~BRA).\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.\nThe 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar [question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/#comment-47286). \n", - "numforecasts": 32, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/", @@ -4546,47 +4711,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-03-23T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n", - "numforecasts": 131, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 39, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", @@ -4665,32 +4789,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", - "numforecasts": 42, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/", @@ -4707,70 +4805,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", + "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 1152, + "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 33, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", - "numforecasts": 33, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -4799,21 +4856,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n", - "numforecasts": 56, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-15T00:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/", @@ -4844,21 +4886,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n", - "numforecasts": 91, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/", @@ -4921,7 +4948,7 @@ } ], "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 589, + "numforecasts": 590, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -4930,6 +4957,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2035-06-05T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", + "numforecasts": 490, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/", @@ -5035,21 +5077,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", @@ -5211,6 +5238,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", + "numforecasts": 34, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/", @@ -5226,6 +5279,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n", + "numforecasts": 330, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/", @@ -5252,39 +5331,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2046-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n", - "numforecasts": 328, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", @@ -5293,32 +5346,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 447, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", @@ -5336,7 +5363,7 @@ } ], "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", - "numforecasts": 247, + "numforecasts": 248, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", @@ -5345,6 +5372,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 448, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/", @@ -5397,32 +5450,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-11-07T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 230, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", @@ -5449,6 +5476,58 @@ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", + "numforecasts": 230, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", + "numforecasts": 1154, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/", @@ -5466,7 +5545,7 @@ } ], "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 280, + "numforecasts": 282, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -5490,6 +5569,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", + "numforecasts": 219, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/", @@ -5522,7 +5627,7 @@ } ], "description": "The 2008 financial crisis was [\"considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nAccording to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&start=1961&view=chart)), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%).\nQuestion: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?\nEstimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers.\nThis question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/).\n", - "numforecasts": 791, + "numforecasts": 795, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z", @@ -5589,7 +5694,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 110, + "numforecasts": 112, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -5598,21 +5703,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T22:30:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nHow many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report?\nResolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved.\nRelated question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/)\n", - "numforecasts": 52, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2032-06-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/", @@ -5740,58 +5830,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", - "numforecasts": 134, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", - "numforecasts": 12, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/", @@ -5808,33 +5846,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/", + "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris.\nThe latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV).\nWhen will GTA VI be released?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. \nThis date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n", - "numforecasts": 145, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" } }, { @@ -5878,28 +5901,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March\n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -5909,29 +5917,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", + "title": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.07999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 510, + "description": "Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.\nAustralia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).\nIn late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: \nWill Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 174, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T14:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -5961,29 +5969,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", + "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", - "numforecasts": 575, + "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 513, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -6094,32 +6102,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-11T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 74, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/", @@ -6187,47 +6169,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", - "numforecasts": 69, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n", - "numforecasts": 202, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T22:01:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", @@ -6243,47 +6184,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n", - "numforecasts": 106, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", - "numforecasts": 23, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/", @@ -6310,6 +6210,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", + "numforecasts": 23, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/", @@ -6340,13 +6266,54 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.82, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n", + "numforecasts": 202, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T22:01:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n", + "numforecasts": 25, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", @@ -6370,6 +6337,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", + "numforecasts": 111, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", @@ -6385,6 +6367,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n", + "numforecasts": 147, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/", @@ -6452,32 +6449,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/", @@ -6493,36 +6464,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2056-01-01T00:58:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:24:03Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:21:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n", - "numforecasts": 13, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/", @@ -6538,21 +6479,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810.\nA plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv).\nWhat will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04.\n", - "numforecasts": 92, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", @@ -6583,32 +6509,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023.\nThe \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).\nWill the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?\nThis question resolves \"yes\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\nThis question resolves \"no\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/", @@ -6624,13 +6524,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", + "numforecasts": 222, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", - "numforecasts": 224, + "numforecasts": 226, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -6655,74 +6570,160 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will PHP die?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", + "title": "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 96, + "description": "On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.\n[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?\nIf /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as \"> 2025-12-31\".\n", + "numforecasts": 103, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/", + "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n", + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T03:10:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z" } }, { - "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", + "title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n", + "numforecasts": 150, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/", + "title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.\nThis question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? \nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.\n", - "numforecasts": 237, + "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n", + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 125, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", + "numforecasts": 214, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: \n---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be \"commonplace\" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. \n---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty \"with 99.9 per cent accuracy\" \n---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour \"indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods\", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. \n---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost \"error-free\" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. \n---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become \"commonplace\" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study \n---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past \n---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century \n---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required \n---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying \nWhat percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)\nWhat percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?\nIn 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. \nExamples: \n---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. \n---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. \n---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. \nThe term \"robotic judges\" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase \"Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying\" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. \n", + "numforecasts": 19, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 58, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 41, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -6752,18 +6753,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/", + "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 470, + "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", + "numforecasts": 147, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 89, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -6782,197 +6809,241 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will One Piece end?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/", + "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.).\nSo when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published?\nThis question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time).\nThis question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n", + "numforecasts": 188, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", + "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n", + "numforecasts": 91, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-04-27T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n", + "numforecasts": 17, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z" } }, { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6385/vaccine-doses-administered-germany-by-april/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 22, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-25T14:31:11Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-03-31T22:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/", + "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z" } }, { - "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 196, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/", + "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", - "numforecasts": 168, + "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 125, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", + "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", - "numforecasts": 613, + "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n", + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z" } }, { - "title": "When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/", + "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052)\nData of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html).\nWhen will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?\nResolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp.\nThe question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase.\nResolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.\n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" } }, { - "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/", + "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.56, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", + "numforecasts": 111, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n", + "numforecasts": 40, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 247, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -7001,6 +7072,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", + "numforecasts": 65, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/", @@ -7027,21 +7124,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-10-21T16:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue?\nThe admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 216, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/", @@ -7059,7 +7141,7 @@ } ], "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", - "numforecasts": 871, + "numforecasts": 872, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", @@ -7068,6 +7150,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue?\nThe admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 216, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", + "numforecasts": 117, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/", @@ -7146,6 +7258,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", + "numforecasts": 42, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/", @@ -7202,6 +7340,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", + "numforecasts": 622, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", @@ -7223,7 +7387,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -7249,7 +7413,7 @@ } ], "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 301, + "numforecasts": 313, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -7309,7 +7473,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", - "numforecasts": 207, + "numforecasts": 211, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", @@ -7325,17 +7489,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 81, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -7417,7 +7581,7 @@ } ], "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z", @@ -7426,39 +7590,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.040000000000000036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 248, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", - "numforecasts": 211, + "numforecasts": 213, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", @@ -7540,7 +7678,7 @@ } ], "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", - "numforecasts": 2710, + "numforecasts": 2723, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", @@ -7581,7 +7719,7 @@ } ], "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n", - "numforecasts": 556, + "numforecasts": 557, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z", @@ -7596,7 +7734,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n", - "numforecasts": 186, + "numforecasts": 201, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -7605,6 +7743,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.\nWhat will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?\nThis question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2.\n", + "numforecasts": 104, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-02T05:02:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-09T06:03:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/", @@ -7622,7 +7775,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n", - "numforecasts": 173, + "numforecasts": 174, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z", @@ -7631,21 +7784,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-04T19:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.\nWhat will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?\nThis question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2.\n", - "numforecasts": 104, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-02T05:02:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-09T06:03:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/", @@ -7743,6 +7881,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 77, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/", @@ -7769,21 +7922,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-15T15:54:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 76, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5824/uk-to-cut-international-aid/", @@ -7873,17 +8011,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n", - "numforecasts": 542, + "numforecasts": 552, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", @@ -7909,7 +8047,7 @@ } ], "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", - "numforecasts": 1320, + "numforecasts": 1329, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", @@ -7935,7 +8073,7 @@ } ], "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 217, + "numforecasts": 225, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", @@ -8047,7 +8185,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will Russia become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", @@ -8062,7 +8200,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n", - "numforecasts": 117, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z", @@ -8278,7 +8416,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage real GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved between Jan 1, 2020 to Dec 31, 2029.\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n", - "numforecasts": 174, + "numforecasts": 176, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -8287,21 +8425,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", - "numforecasts": 470, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/", @@ -8675,17 +8798,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.\nBut life could take many forms:\n---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). \n---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). \n---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). \n---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consistently implementing a sentient computation). \nThese examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space.\nQuestion: If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based?\nLife-form details:\n1--The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life. \n2--The life-forms that count for this question are ones on the complexity level of our single-celled organisms or lower (as determined by a poll of xeno-biologists if there is any ambiguity). If there are none, then the simplest life-forms we have found are taken for resolution. \n3--The life-form has to need less than 1% of its atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. It can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be absent and the life-form still be alive. \nResolution details:\n---The scientific community has to have reached a consensus as judged by Metaculus admins. \n---This resolves positive if any life-form we encounter satisfies points 1. 2. and 3. \n---This resolves negative if all the life-forms we encounter that satisfy points 1. and 2. do not satisfiy point 3. \n---This resolves ambiguous if no life-form that satisfies point 1. is found before 2500, or if before then we have conclusive evidence that none exists in the observable universe. \n---This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. \n* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.\nNote that in this sense Humans are only \"based\" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). \n", - "numforecasts": 143, + "numforecasts": 145, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -8827,7 +8950,7 @@ } ], "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 1066, + "numforecasts": 1067, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -8892,32 +9015,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 1107, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-08-01T09:32:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:35:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/", @@ -8959,6 +9056,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 1109, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-08-01T09:32:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:35:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/", @@ -8985,6 +9108,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2027-01-30T13:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 258, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-01T05:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/", @@ -9011,32 +9160,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.76, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 257, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-01T05:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will there be at least one billion Americans?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/", @@ -9099,7 +9222,7 @@ } ], "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 715, + "numforecasts": 716, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", @@ -9256,7 +9379,7 @@ } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n", - "numforecasts": 140, + "numforecasts": 141, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -9317,17 +9440,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08999999999999997, + "probability": 0.07999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\n
  • There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
    • \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 313, + "numforecasts": 315, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", @@ -9540,7 +9663,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. \nThe potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.\nAn early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.\nThis question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth? \nThe date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'\nBy 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.\nThis means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.\nResolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, + "numforecasts": 100, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-05-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -9579,6 +9702,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2041-12-31T22:44:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.\n\nQuestion\n\nHow many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?\n\nDefinitions\n\nEndurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.\nExtra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.\nWe'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:\n--- \nwas born in the 1990s,\n--- \ndoesn't smoke,\n--- \neats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,\n--- \nhas body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,\n--- \ndrinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and\n--- \nlives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).\n\nResolution\n\nThe question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).\n--- \nIf the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.\n--- \nIf the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.\nOtherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.\n", + "numforecasts": 118, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-10T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/", @@ -9605,21 +9743,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.\n\nQuestion\n\nHow many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?\n\nDefinitions\n\nEndurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.\nExtra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.\nWe'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:\n--- \nwas born in the 1990s,\n--- \ndoesn't smoke,\n--- \neats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,\n--- \nhas body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,\n--- \ndrinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and\n--- \nlives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).\n\nResolution\n\nThe question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).\n--- \nIf the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.\n--- \nIf the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.\nOtherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.\n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-10T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/", @@ -9641,7 +9764,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 435, + "numforecasts": 436, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -9682,7 +9805,7 @@ } ], "description": "NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030.\nSpaceX has been working on its own \"Mars\" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026.\nWill NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?\nThe resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events:\n1) A mission substantially (>30%) or wholly funded by NASA successfully returns a sample from the surface of Mars to Earth.\n2) A rocket build by SpaceX designated as \"Starship\" or clearly designated as a successor to Starship successfully lands on Mars.\nThe question will resolve positive if event 1) happens before event 2).\nThe question will resolve negatively if event 2) happens before event 1).\nIf neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNote that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it. Because the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative.\nSimilarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth.\nIt is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -9728,17 +9851,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 171, + "numforecasts": 172, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -9769,17 +9892,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", @@ -10212,7 +10335,7 @@ } ], "description": "Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time.\nTherefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?\nA positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost.\nDue to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 535, + "numforecasts": 537, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -10406,7 +10529,7 @@ } ], "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n", - "numforecasts": 292, + "numforecasts": 293, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -10523,17 +10646,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "probability": 0.41000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n", - "numforecasts": 215, + "numforecasts": 217, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z", @@ -10559,7 +10682,7 @@ } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 148, + "numforecasts": 149, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", @@ -10583,6 +10706,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2119-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neural networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199). In particular, neural networks seem to suffer from a problem currently known as adversarial examples.\nAdversarial examples are images optimized so as to fool a machine learning algorithm, but remain unambiguous to humans. Current machine learning algorithms can be fooled by changes that are essentially impossible to perceive by humans. The issue of adversarial examples highlight differences in how humans and algorithms do image recognition. [\"Adversarial Examples - A Complete Characterisation of the Phenomenon\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01185) provides an extensive overview.\nNotably, adversarial examples can also be a security issue, for example by making it possible to bypass face or voice recognition used for authentication.\nRecently Google introduced [the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/09/introducing-unrestricted-adversarial.html). This challenge allows unrestricted inputs, allowing participants to submit arbitrary images from the target classes to develop and test models on a wider variety of adversarial examples. They ask models to answer the question \"Is this an unambiguous picture of a bird, a bicycle, or is it (ambiguous / not obvious)?\". The images are provided by attackers and are first labeled by humans. A small monetary prize will be awarded to any team that breaks a previously-unbroken defense with an eligible input.\nThe question asks:\n\nWhen will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nThe question will resolve when the large defender prize of the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge is awarded. This means that a defense (an image recognition algorithm) must remain unbroken for at least 90 days. [This file provides details of the challenge.](https://github.com/google/unrestricted-adversarial-examples/blob/7cf9c3e6a33d32de3c7f1568b655d391f7815370/contest_proposal.md#unrestricted-adversarial-examples-contest-proposal) The question will resolve even if the details of the challenge are modified as long as the spirit of the challenge remains the same. The question will resolve as ambiguous if the challenge is discontinued before the end of 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 160, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-03-11T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6142/us-states-with-gini-scores-5-by-2025/", @@ -10598,21 +10736,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-12-02T02:50:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neural networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199). In particular, neural networks seem to suffer from a problem currently known as adversarial examples.\nAdversarial examples are images optimized so as to fool a machine learning algorithm, but remain unambiguous to humans. Current machine learning algorithms can be fooled by changes that are essentially impossible to perceive by humans. The issue of adversarial examples highlight differences in how humans and algorithms do image recognition. [\"Adversarial Examples - A Complete Characterisation of the Phenomenon\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01185) provides an extensive overview.\nNotably, adversarial examples can also be a security issue, for example by making it possible to bypass face or voice recognition used for authentication.\nRecently Google introduced [the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/09/introducing-unrestricted-adversarial.html). This challenge allows unrestricted inputs, allowing participants to submit arbitrary images from the target classes to develop and test models on a wider variety of adversarial examples. They ask models to answer the question \"Is this an unambiguous picture of a bird, a bicycle, or is it (ambiguous / not obvious)?\". The images are provided by attackers and are first labeled by humans. A small monetary prize will be awarded to any team that breaks a previously-unbroken defense with an eligible input.\nThe question asks:\n\nWhen will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nThe question will resolve when the large defender prize of the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge is awarded. This means that a defense (an image recognition algorithm) must remain unbroken for at least 90 days. [This file provides details of the challenge.](https://github.com/google/unrestricted-adversarial-examples/blob/7cf9c3e6a33d32de3c7f1568b655d391f7815370/contest_proposal.md#unrestricted-adversarial-examples-contest-proposal) The question will resolve even if the details of the challenge are modified as long as the spirit of the challenge remains the same. The question will resolve as ambiguous if the challenge is discontinued before the end of 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 158, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-03-11T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/", @@ -10628,6 +10751,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n", + "numforecasts": 425, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/", @@ -10654,32 +10803,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-11-02T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n", - "numforecasts": 424, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/487/hutter-prize-when-will-a-compression-method-achieve-1-bit-per-character-on-a-100mb-sample-of-wikipedia/", @@ -10728,17 +10851,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 383, + "numforecasts": 385, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z", @@ -10768,7 +10891,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 682, + "numforecasts": 683, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", @@ -11165,21 +11288,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.\nIn 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.\n\nWhen will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?\n\n---This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. \n---A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. \n---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. \n---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. \n---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 96, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-28T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/", @@ -11197,7 +11305,7 @@ } ], "description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.\nWill Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?\nWill FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?\nThe question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. \n", - "numforecasts": 422, + "numforecasts": 423, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", @@ -11206,6 +11314,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-07-20T16:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.\nIn 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.\n\nWhen will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?\n\n---This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. \n---A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. \n---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. \n---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. \n---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 96, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-28T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/", @@ -11223,7 +11346,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 217, + "numforecasts": 218, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -11376,7 +11499,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 250, + "numforecasts": 252, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", @@ -11873,6 +11996,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-03-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", + "numforecasts": 66, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6710/us-school-staff-to-get-1st-dose-by-31-march/", @@ -11890,7 +12028,7 @@ } ], "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [\"every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program.\nWill every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. \nIf there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively.\n5 March edit: For this to resolve negatively, the >= 50 education staff would have had to have tried to make an appointment at least 10 days before the end of the month — so no later than 21 March. If they tried making appointments after 21 March and could not receive their first dose until sometime after 31 March, this would not count toward negative resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 137, + "numforecasts": 138, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -11899,21 +12037,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T16:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/", @@ -11998,7 +12121,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to [earthquaketrack.com](http://earthquaketrack.com) the largest quake this past year: 6.6 in Néa Anatolí, Crete, Greece\nThe area is geologically active an had an estimated 8-8.5 earthquake in 365 A.D.\nThe 365 Crete earthquake occurred at about sunrise on 21 July 365 in the Eastern Mediterranean, with an assumed epicenter near Crete Geologists today estimate the undersea earthquake to have been a magnitude 8.0 or higher. It caused widespread destruction in central and southern Greece, northern Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, Sicily, and Spain. On Crete, nearly all towns were destroyed.\nThe Crete earthquake was followed by a tsunami which devastated the southern and eastern coasts of the Mediterranean, particularly Libya, Alexandria and the Nile Delta, killing thousands and hurling ships 3 km (1.9 mi) inland.\nWill there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?\nThis question will resolve if by Dec. 31 2021 an earthquake measuring 7.0 or larger occurring either underneath or within 80 Kilometres from sea shores of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, being defined as a line running from Southern Sicily thru Malta to Misrata Libya. This will include the whole Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea, and Leviathan Sea.\nEarthquake must be verified by either: European-Mediterranean Seismological Center Earthquake Track\n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", @@ -12054,7 +12177,7 @@ } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?\nThis question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 159, + "numforecasts": 160, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -12085,17 +12208,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question.\nWill the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?\nResolves to \"yes\" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to \"no\" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 110, + "numforecasts": 130, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T10:00:00Z", @@ -12227,21 +12350,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:37:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-19T22:37:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6528/few-shot-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", @@ -12933,7 +13041,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n", - "numforecasts": 1253, + "numforecasts": 1254, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-08T00:00:00Z", @@ -13045,7 +13153,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n", - "numforecasts": 184, + "numforecasts": 197, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -13176,7 +13284,7 @@ } ], "description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "numforecasts": 255, + "numforecasts": 256, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z", @@ -13474,7 +13582,7 @@ } ], "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n", - "numforecasts": 142, + "numforecasts": 144, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", @@ -13545,7 +13653,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.\nBy March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.\nBy 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?\nThe price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -13571,7 +13679,7 @@ } ], "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n", - "numforecasts": 204, + "numforecasts": 206, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", @@ -13647,32 +13755,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 254, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/", @@ -13792,32 +13874,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 624, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/", @@ -13844,6 +13900,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 631, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/", @@ -14003,7 +14085,7 @@ } ], "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", @@ -14145,7 +14227,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does. \nEstimates in the literature (see appendix A on p. 84 of [this paper](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) for a compilation) range from to FLOPS following a variety of methodologies. (For a comparison, the Landauer limit at 20 C is about bit erasures per second. However, the author has no clear idea how to convert between bit erasures and FLOPS.)\nThis huge range will probably eventually be narrowed down to within an order-of-magnitude or two, and we ask for that number here. Assume that by 2075 there is either (a) a full software emulation of a human brain that can duplicate the basic functionality of a typical adult human of average intelligence; or (b) there is an AI system that can pass a full \"strong\" Turing test (i.e. the interview is long, adversarial, and include sensory data); or (c) there is a computer system that attains \"human intelligence parity\" by the definition set forth in [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). In each case (a,b,c) the number will be evaluated on a state-of-the-art system five years after the first demonstration of a system satisfying the criterion.\nWhat will the computation in FLOPS be of this machine system, if running at a speed comparable to that of human mental processing? \nThe point of this question is not really as a prediction, but more as a gathering place for estimates.\nFine print: we'll settle for a published estimate accurate to within a factor of 5. The speeds of the systems can be matched up by requiring that similar delays occur between queries and responses in the system as compared to humans, or scaling for this equivalency. Resolves as ambiguous if (a), (b) or (c) don't occur by 2075.\n(edited 2020-09-13 to fix eval date as 5 years after such a system appears.)\n", - "numforecasts": 205, + "numforecasts": 206, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-13T07:00:00Z", @@ -14292,21 +14374,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 63, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:51:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:51:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/", @@ -14324,7 +14391,7 @@ } ], "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise:\n1-- \nA military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n", - "numforecasts": 592, + "numforecasts": 595, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", @@ -14333,6 +14400,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 63, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:51:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:51:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/", @@ -14477,7 +14559,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, and resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Due to community spread of the virus throughout the United States and other countries, there has been interest in developing a vaccine to hopefully stop the spread of the virus.\nIn November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more than 90% effective according to early trial data. Both vaccines require two doses per person. Government officials expect there to be 40 million doses from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine available in 2020 if both vaccines are approved, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. [(Washington Post)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/) By the end of 2021, Pfizer estimates it will be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, and Moderna estimates it will be able to produce 1 billion doses. [(The Guardian)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show)\nBased on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4.\nWhen will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-12T08:00:00Z", @@ -14615,7 +14697,7 @@ } ], "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? \nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 698, + "numforecasts": 699, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z", @@ -15148,7 +15230,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.\nHow many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?\nSee also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)\n", - "numforecasts": 202, + "numforecasts": 205, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-07-20T22:00:00Z", @@ -15234,7 +15316,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n", - "numforecasts": 503, + "numforecasts": 505, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z", @@ -15730,7 +15812,7 @@ } ], "description": "The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.\nRecently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783).\nWill life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?\nThe question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard \"extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence\" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt.\nThe question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus is found or the evidence remains inconclusive.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) \n---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) \n---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) \n", - "numforecasts": 219, + "numforecasts": 221, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", @@ -16071,6 +16153,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", + "numforecasts": 566, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/", @@ -16097,32 +16205,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", - "numforecasts": 565, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Who will win the 'worm wars'?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/", @@ -16444,6 +16526,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T20:33:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.\nThe [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months:\n1-- \nThe race to build larger language models continues and we see the first 10 trillion parameter model.\n2-- \nAttention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results.\n3-- \nA major corporate AI lab shuts down as its parent company changes strategy.\n4-- \nIn response to US DoD activity and investment in US based military AI startups, a wave of Chinese and European defense-focused AI startups collectively raise over $100M in the next 12 months.\n5-- \nOne of the leading AI-first drug discovery startups (e.g. Recursion, Exscientia) either IPOs or is acquired for over $1B.\n6-- \nDeepMind makes a major breakthrough in structural biology and drug discovery beyond AlphaFold. \n7-- \nFacebook makes a major breakthrough in augmented and virtual reality with 3D computer vision. \n8-- \nNVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm.\nHow many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?\nOnly prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.\nResolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.\nThe question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published.\n", + "numforecasts": 65, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-10T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-12-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T21:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you \"wake up\"?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/", @@ -16461,7 +16558,7 @@ } ], "description": "Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question.\nThe basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html).)\nThe ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservation-prize-be-awarded-by-the-brain-preservation-foundation/) regarding the \"large brain preservation prize\" discusses some of the advances. Many questions remain however, including: Is it even in principle possible to reconstruct an individual human mind out of a frozen brain? If so, how much accuracy in preservation is necessary? Do current techniques have the requisite accuracy? How advanced will the reconstruction technology be, and when would/might that exist? etc., etc.\nLet's assume that an individual as of the reading of the question signs up with one of the top three (by number of currently preserved individuals). \nWhat is the probability that the individual will \"wake up\" in essentially the same or better form than they died? \nWe'll consider success if the revived individual has full mental faculties, an essentially complete set of memories of their former life, and a personality that is at least difficult for them or others to discern from the original. We'll assume for these purposes that the individual's last heartbeat (at least for some time) occurs in a hospital or similar setting where the body can be immediately cooled and moved (if not there already) to a facility for cryonic preservation, and that the individual dies with a relatively healthy brain intact.\nNote: like a few other Metaculus questions, we don't expect this to actually resolve. Rather it is a \"headline\" question that could fold in the results of others. Suggestions for shorter-term, resolvable questions that would bear upon the probabilities of this one are invited in the comments below.\n", - "numforecasts": 557, + "numforecasts": 558, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-03-29T20:50:00Z", @@ -16470,21 +16567,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T21:50:34Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.\nThe [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months:\n1-- \nThe race to build larger language models continues and we see the first 10 trillion parameter model.\n2-- \nAttention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results.\n3-- \nA major corporate AI lab shuts down as its parent company changes strategy.\n4-- \nIn response to US DoD activity and investment in US based military AI startups, a wave of Chinese and European defense-focused AI startups collectively raise over $100M in the next 12 months.\n5-- \nOne of the leading AI-first drug discovery startups (e.g. Recursion, Exscientia) either IPOs or is acquired for over $1B.\n6-- \nDeepMind makes a major breakthrough in structural biology and drug discovery beyond AlphaFold. \n7-- \nFacebook makes a major breakthrough in augmented and virtual reality with 3D computer vision. \n8-- \nNVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm.\nHow many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?\nOnly prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.\nResolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.\nThe question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-12-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T21:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will Croatia adopt the euro?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/", @@ -17010,7 +17092,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 129, + "numforecasts": 131, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", @@ -17443,7 +17525,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n", - "numforecasts": 196, + "numforecasts": 198, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -17659,7 +17741,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive. \nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100. \nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? \nOne issue is that AGI is rather difficult to precisely define. A separate question addresses a similar issue by asking about [human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) in a particular adversarial test. Here we'd like a definition that connects more closely with established benchmarks for various capabilities; it also sets an arguably somewhat lower bar.\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n", - "numforecasts": 471, + "numforecasts": 473, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-18T08:00:00Z", @@ -17741,7 +17823,7 @@ } ], "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n", - "numforecasts": 199, + "numforecasts": 200, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z", @@ -17972,7 +18054,7 @@ } ], "description": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\nCoins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\nAlthough it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?\n", - "numforecasts": 372, + "numforecasts": 373, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", @@ -19063,32 +19145,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On October 29, 2020, CNBC host Scott Wapner [tweeted](https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC):\nHearing Tim Cook tell @CNBCJosh that the virus makes it too hard to give guidance highlights a big risk for the economy — that while we won’t lock down again, businesses could decide to shut their stores for periods rather than risk their customers or employees getting sick.\nLet's focus on Apple, since the company presumably has the resources and wherewithal to be able to implement best practice preventive measures, and understanding the precautions that they choose to implement may help shed light on the likely decisions of similar retail businesses.\nThe \"always open\" flagship [5th Ave Apple Store](https://www.apple.com/retail/fifthavenue/) location in New York City is providing face masks to shoppers, enforcing social distancing, doing temperature checks, and performing continuous cleaning, according to the store's website. But will these measures be enough to prevent a significant store closure during the 2020/2021 winter season?\nWill Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?\nResolution will be determined according to announcements made by Apple regarding opening and closing dates of their 5th Ave location.\n", - "numforecasts": 247, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-02T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-15T20:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T19:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/", @@ -19272,6 +19328,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "2˚C global warming by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.87, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\nTherefore, it is asked: \nWill there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880.\n(Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.)\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 1.8 ˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\nThe last possible set of 5 years to satisfy the requirement would be 2095-2099, so the last possible resolution date would be around mid-2100, in order to make sure that there are no uncertainties regarding the 2099 climate data.\n", + "numforecasts": 364, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-06-14T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/", @@ -19287,32 +19369,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-03-28T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "2˚C global warming by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.10999999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\nTherefore, it is asked: \nWill there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880.\n(Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.)\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 1.8 ˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\nThe last possible set of 5 years to satisfy the requirement would be 2095-2099, so the last possible resolution date would be around mid-2100, in order to make sure that there are no uncertainties regarding the 2099 climate data.\n", - "numforecasts": 362, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-06-14T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/", @@ -19468,7 +19524,7 @@ } ], "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 5093, + "numforecasts": 5097, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z", @@ -20031,7 +20087,7 @@ } ], "description": "Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.\nAs of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found what is in their air, not how much or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.\nSadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. \nSo far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life.\nWill we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?\nResolves positive for any exoplanet with >5% O2 found before 2030, negative if none are found.\n", - "numforecasts": 165, + "numforecasts": 166, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -21061,7 +21117,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why this might happen,\n--- \nA wealthy person or organization begins offering it as a way of attracting people to cryonics.\n--- \nThe government subsidizes cryonics as an alternative to the expensive [end-of-life care](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End-of-life_care) industry that currently exists. The world population is expected to be [much older](https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure) on average in the near future, which could put strain on governments to cut healthcare costs.\nCryonics proponents have historically [given arguments](https://alcor.org/Library/html/cryopreservingeveryone.html) for why they expect cryonics to scale extremely well, which if true, would imply that the cost of signing everyone in the United States up would be relatively cheap per capita.\nAfter 10 years of when the offer was first made, what percentage of Americans will be signed up to receive cryonics? For reference, there are [currently](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) only about 1500 members signed up with Alcor, one of the largest cryonics organizations, which represents less than 0.00046% of the US population. \nFor the offering to count, there must be some sort of public message declaring the offer, and eligibility must be available to at least one hundred million people. The date of offering is the first date where a United States citizen receives a cryonics contract for free on behalf of an organization or person who is widely considered to be offering it as a gift to the general public (at least in the United States), rather than to some specific individuals. Here, a cryonics contract is defined as any legally binding commitment, by an organization plausibly capable of fulfilling it, to provide for cryopreservation of (at least) a person's brain provided that doing so is practically feasible.\nIf it is the case that the government provides the service as a routine procedure, and as such there is no literal contract to sign, the number of people said to be \"signed up\" in this case are the number of people the US Government promises to cryopreserve. As an example, if the US Government promised to preserve all United States citizens, then the proportion of citizens as a percentage of the total population of the United States (according to the latest Census projection) is the percentage of people in America \"signed up for cryonics.\"\nIf cryonics is not offered for free to the general public by any organization or person before 2100, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-27T22:00:00Z", @@ -21836,7 +21892,7 @@ } ], "description": "Every astrobiologist and their brother is excited about the possibility of life on Jupiter's moon, Europa. And for good reason. It's likely got more liquid water than our fair Earth does. Thanks to Jupiter's gravitation tugging, there's almost certainly lots of volcanic activities beneath those seas to create an environment similar to the one we suspect [gave rise to life](https://www.whoi.edu/news-release/study-tests-theory-that-life-originated-at-deep-sea-vents) on this planet.\nIn addition to fantasizing extensively about [discovering life on Europa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NlvndXpmEA), our species has been busy preparing recon missions to sample [tasty plumes](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/) of water+organics fulminating off the surface. Maybe we'll get lucky and find convincing proof of biological activity on Europa with the [Clipper mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/).\nOr maybe not.\nEuropa is far away. It's bathed in horrific radiation. It's cold. Its environment would be mean to our drills. And there might not even be life there.\nMeanwhile, other (slightly) more hospitable places – Mars, hint, hint – may also house life. Or maybe boosters of Titan or Enceladus will convince us to go to those worlds first, and we'll find the first alien life there. Or maybe life won't be found at all in the solar system. Or maybe SETI will come through. Or our new mega powerful telescopes will reveal life on extra solar worlds. Or maybe [aliens have already found us](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUHk9FLZMf4)!\nWhat's your take? Question resolves positive if humanity by 2045 discovers convincing evidence of life on Europa and does so before detecting extra terrestrial life anywhere else in the universe. Resolves negative if by 2045 extraterrestrial life is found convincingly elsewhere prior to on Europa. Resolves ambiguous if no extraterrestrial life is found by 2045. (Note: extraterrestrial life must be (a) living currently and (b) highly unlikely to be a result of contamination by Earth spacecraft. This leaves open the possibility of life transported from Earth via other non-human-engineered means.)\n", - "numforecasts": 352, + "numforecasts": 353, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -22360,6 +22416,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 234, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/", @@ -22386,32 +22468,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T05:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 233, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/", @@ -22770,21 +22826,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n", - "numforecasts": 229, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/", @@ -22811,6 +22852,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n", + "numforecasts": 230, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/", @@ -23177,21 +23233,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the VIX index climb above 50?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.\nIt represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.\nBetween 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).\nThe question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.\nCompanion question:\n---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) \n", - "numforecasts": 102, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/", @@ -23266,12 +23307,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23677,21 +23718,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2130-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/", @@ -23709,7 +23735,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the quest for \"strong\" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is \"brain emulation,\" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. \nIn an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such \"Ems\" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)\nTo gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of \"Ems\" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:\nWill the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains? \nResolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.\n(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)\n", - "numforecasts": 427, + "numforecasts": 428, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-11-06T21:09:16Z", @@ -23718,6 +23744,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 71, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2130-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/", @@ -23937,7 +23978,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n", - "numforecasts": 176, + "numforecasts": 178, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-08T07:00:00Z", @@ -24161,7 +24202,7 @@ } ], "description": "Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as \"Satoshi Nakamoto\", the maverick who developed bitcoin.\nHaven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator):\nON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. \nWill we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.\nQuestion resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??)\n", - "numforecasts": 471, + "numforecasts": 473, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -24233,17 +24274,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -24295,7 +24336,7 @@ } ], "description": "China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.\nFrom the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.\nChina has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)). Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).\nWill China's GDP exceed United States GDP in at least 1 year by 2040?\nThis question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).\nFor the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).\nPreviously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:\nThis question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices. \n", - "numforecasts": 434, + "numforecasts": 435, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z", @@ -24744,21 +24785,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6425/the-future-of-wallstreetbets/", @@ -24785,6 +24811,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 33, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/", @@ -25173,17 +25214,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.\n[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):\nAccording to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.\nThe question is: can we do this?\nKurzgesagt (a.k.a. \"in a nutshell\") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)\nHere are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:\n---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator. \n---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build. \n---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down. \n---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process. \n---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. \nWhat do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?\nQuestion resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.\n", - "numforecasts": 366, + "numforecasts": 368, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -25192,32 +25233,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 68, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/", @@ -25248,6 +25263,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 69, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/", @@ -25340,7 +25381,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.\nQuestion: When will the United States admit a new state?\nThis question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A \"new state\" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019.\nIt resolves as \"> Dec 31, 2050\" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.\n", - "numforecasts": 161, + "numforecasts": 162, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -25564,7 +25605,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n", - "numforecasts": 124, + "numforecasts": 125, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", @@ -25594,7 +25635,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n---There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n---Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \n---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. \n", - "numforecasts": 229, + "numforecasts": 230, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", @@ -26147,17 +26188,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n", - "numforecasts": 277, + "numforecasts": 280, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", @@ -26703,32 +26744,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n", - "numforecasts": 62, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-07T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/", @@ -27269,6 +27284,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", + "numforecasts": 207, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/", @@ -27314,21 +27344,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T15:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 205, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/", @@ -27571,17 +27586,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", - "numforecasts": 1353, + "numforecasts": 1358, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z", @@ -28026,17 +28041,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nWill resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with > 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n", - "numforecasts": 515, + "numforecasts": 517, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z", diff --git a/data/metaforecasts.json b/data/metaforecasts.json index 216b790..ae2a034 100644 --- a/data/metaforecasts.json +++ b/data/metaforecasts.json @@ -7,17 +7,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "2", - "numforecasters": "2", + "numforecasts": "3", + "numforecasters": "3", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -29,17 +29,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "3", - "numforecasters": "3", + "numforecasts": "6", + "numforecasters": "6", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -51,17 +51,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "2", - "numforecasters": "2", + "numforecasts": "5", + "numforecasters": "4", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -184,32 +184,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 3%", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.2075, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2929, + "probability": 0.3063, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%", - "probability": 0.35710000000000003, + "probability": 0.3625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%", - "probability": 0.0771, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 7.5%", - "probability": 0.0429, + "probability": 0.0438, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "8", - "numforecasters": "7", + "numforecasts": "9", + "numforecasters": "8", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 3%, Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%, More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%, More than 7.5%" }, @@ -221,32 +221,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $470 billion", - "probability": 0.041100000000000005, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.10679999999999999, + "probability": 0.1039, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", - "probability": 0.2365, + "probability": 0.2303, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", - "probability": 0.3395, + "probability": 0.33840000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $680 billion", - "probability": 0.2762, + "probability": 0.2874, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "56", - "numforecasters": "54", + "numforecasts": "57", + "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $470 billion, Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive, More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion, More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion, More than $680 billion" }, @@ -267,8 +267,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "96", - "numforecasters": "87", + "numforecasts": "97", + "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -289,8 +289,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "148", - "numforecasters": "125", + "numforecasts": "149", + "numforecasters": "126", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -607,8 +607,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "116", - "numforecasters": "80", + "numforecasts": "117", + "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -620,22 +620,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Zero", - "probability": 0.337, + "probability": 0.3477, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "One", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Two or more", - "probability": 0.293, + "probability": 0.2882, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "92", - "numforecasters": "81", + "numforecasts": "93", + "numforecasters": "82", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, One, Two or more" }, @@ -693,7 +693,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "274", + "numforecasts": "275", "numforecasters": "181", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -706,27 +706,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before February 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.0379, + "probability": 0.0375, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive", - "probability": 0.107, + "probability": 0.1058, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.2407, + "probability": 0.23800000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.6144, + "probability": 0.6187, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "203", - "numforecasters": "127", + "numforecasts": "204", + "numforecasters": "128", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before February 17, 2021, Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive, After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021, After November 17, 2021" }, @@ -812,17 +812,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "162", - "numforecasters": "124", + "numforecasts": "163", + "numforecasters": "125", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -871,32 +871,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 675", - "probability": 0.4596, + "probability": 0.4869, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2688, + "probability": 0.2659, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825", - "probability": 0.1474, + "probability": 0.1394, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900", - "probability": 0.08220000000000001, + "probability": 0.07139999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 900", - "probability": 0.042, + "probability": 0.0365, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "120", - "numforecasters": "72", + "numforecasts": "122", + "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 675, Between 675 and 750, inclusive, More than 750 but less than or equal to 825, More than 825 but less than or equal to 900, More than 900" }, @@ -17187,12 +17187,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17302,7 +17302,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17312,7 +17312,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 1.6 billion", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -17366,12 +17366,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17401,22 +17401,22 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 November 2021", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -17436,17 +17436,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17466,12 +17466,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17501,7 +17501,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "The Games will begin", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17511,7 +17511,7 @@ }, { "name": "The Games will be cancelled", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -17551,7 +17551,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lower by more than 8%", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17571,7 +17571,7 @@ }, { "name": "Higher by more than 4%", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -17591,12 +17591,12 @@ }, { "name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher by more than 100%", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -17651,12 +17651,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17668,40 +17668,173 @@ "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "10% or less, More than 10% but less than 20%, Between 20% and 30%, inclusive, More than 30%" }, + { + "title": "Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1967-who-will-win-the-democratic-party-primary-for-the-new-york-city-mayoral-election", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Several Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to be the next mayor of New York City ([NBC New York](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crowded-democratic-primary-field-vies-for-nyc-mayors-job/2895362/), [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_New_York,_New_York_(2021))). The primaries, which will be held on 22 June 2021, will be the first to use ranked-choice voting ([Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-mayoral-primaries-set-for-june-11607951847), [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-were-watching-in-the-new-york-city-mayoral-race/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Eric Adams", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Scott Stringer", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Maya Wiley", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Yang", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Someone else", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "4", + "numforecasters": "4", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Andrew Yang, Someone else" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1969-what-will-be-the-gross-proceeds-for-special-purpose-acquisition-company-spac-ipo-transactions-in-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "SPACs have seen rapid growth as an alternative to conventional initial public offerings (IPOs) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/22303457/spacs-explained-stock-market-ipo-draftkings), [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/21/03/20158072/spacs-attack-weekly-recap-looking-back-on-5-deals-rumors-and-headline-news)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as reported by SPACInsider on 7 January 2022 ([SPACInsider](https://spacinsider.com/stats/)). For 2020, gross proceeds from SPAC IPO transactions totaled 83,334.7 million dollars, or $83.3347 billion.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than $100 billion", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$180 billion or more", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "1", + "numforecasters": "1", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $100 billion, Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive, More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion, $180 billion or more" + }, + { + "title": "At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1970-at-close-of-business-on-28-july-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 27-28 July 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lower", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Same", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "3", + "numforecasters": "3", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1968-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-december-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which historically has been predictive of popular unrest, has been climbing in recent months ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1372486/icode/), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/global-food-prices-coronavirus-protests-9d81f4c6-7665-4aa5-9250-a5b670efdb30.html), [Slate](https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html)). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in January 2022, typically released in the first week of the month ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 100.0", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 110.0 but less than 120.0", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 130.0", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "1", + "numforecasters": "1", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 100.0, Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive, More than 110.0 but less than 120.0, Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive, More than 130.0" + }, { "title": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.\n", + "description": "The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Lower than 1.7%", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 3.1%", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "32", - "numforecasters": "26", + "numforecasts": "46", + "numforecasters": "36", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 1.7%, Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive, Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%, Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive, Higher than 3.1%" }, @@ -17709,7 +17842,7 @@ "title": "Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1965-which-film-will-win-the-2021-oscar-for-best-motion-picture-of-the-year", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The 93rd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\n", + "description": "The 93rd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "The Father", @@ -17718,7 +17851,7 @@ }, { "name": "Judas and the Black Messiah", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17728,7 +17861,7 @@ }, { "name": "Minari", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17757,8 +17890,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "27", - "numforecasters": "23", + "numforecasts": "41", + "numforecasters": "33", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7, A tie or other outcome" }, @@ -17766,7 +17899,7 @@ "title": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1966-which-film-will-win-the-2020-oscar-for-directing", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\n", + "description": "The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)", @@ -17780,17 +17913,17 @@ }, { "name": "Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17799,8 +17932,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "22", - "numforecasters": "20", + "numforecasts": "29", + "numforecasters": "24", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg), Mank (David Fincher), Minari (Lee Isaac Chung), Nomadland (Chloé Zhao), Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell), A tie or other outcome" }, @@ -17808,21 +17941,21 @@ "title": "Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).\n", + "description": "Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "76", - "numforecasters": "55", + "numforecasts": "86", + "numforecasters": "62", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17839,17 +17972,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17858,8 +17991,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "98", - "numforecasters": "79", + "numforecasts": "110", + "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 14.5 million, Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive, More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million, Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive, More than 19.0 million" }, @@ -17867,41 +18000,41 @@ "title": "What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)).\n", + "description": "Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than $25 billion", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $55 billion", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "51", - "numforecasters": "48", + "numforecasts": "58", + "numforecasters": "52", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $25 billion, Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive, More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion, Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive, More than $55 billion, Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021" }, @@ -17909,21 +18042,21 @@ "title": "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)).\n", + "description": "After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "60", - "numforecasters": "52", + "numforecasts": "70", + "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17931,11 +18064,11 @@ "title": "What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.\n", + "description": "Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than $75 billion", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17955,7 +18088,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than $150 billion", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17964,8 +18097,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "54", - "numforecasters": "36", + "numforecasts": "57", + "numforecasters": "37", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion, Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021" }, @@ -17973,7 +18106,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.\n", + "description": "Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device", @@ -17982,7 +18115,7 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17992,12 +18125,12 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "112", - "numforecasters": "72", + "numforecasts": "117", + "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device, Yes, only launch an ICBM, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -18005,7 +18138,7 @@ "title": "Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "A Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice \"is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker\" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)).\n", + "description": "A Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice \"is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker\" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -18018,7 +18151,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "47", + "numforecasts": "48", "numforecasters": "33", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -18027,16 +18160,16 @@ "title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021.\n", + "description": "On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 150,000", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18060,8 +18193,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "125", - "numforecasters": "55", + "numforecasts": "130", + "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, 550,000 or more" }, @@ -18069,7 +18202,7 @@ "title": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\nNOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click \"Export\" for file download options).\n", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click \"Export\" for file download options).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 15,000", @@ -18078,12 +18211,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18122,7 +18255,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "92", + "numforecasts": "98", "numforecasters": "38", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 15,000, Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive, More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive, More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000, Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive, More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000, Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive, More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000, 95,000 or more" @@ -18131,7 +18264,7 @@ "title": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\n", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 100,000", @@ -18145,17 +18278,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18184,8 +18317,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "246", - "numforecasters": "81", + "numforecasts": "270", + "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 100,000, Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive, More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000, Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive, More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000, Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive, More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive, More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000, 900,000 or more" }, @@ -18193,7 +18326,7 @@ "title": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\nNOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021. \n", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 70,000,000", @@ -18222,17 +18355,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18251,8 +18384,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "364", - "numforecasters": "124", + "numforecasts": "390", + "numforecasters": "125", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 70,000,000, Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive, More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000, Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive, More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000, Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive, More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000, Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive, More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000, Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive, More than 115,000,000" }, @@ -18260,7 +18393,7 @@ "title": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\n", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 4,000", @@ -18274,12 +18407,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18313,8 +18446,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "230", - "numforecasters": "72", + "numforecasts": "248", + "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4,000, Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive, More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000, Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive, More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000, Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive, More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000, Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive, More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000, 20,000 or more" }, @@ -18322,7 +18455,7 @@ "title": "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the \"Data for all countries\" spreadsheet under the \"Excel file\" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (\"Share of GDP sheet,\" cell BU99).\nNOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.\n", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the \"Data for all countries\" spreadsheet under the \"Excel file\" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (\"Share of GDP sheet,\" cell BU99).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -18335,8 +18468,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "128", - "numforecasters": "73", + "numforecasts": "129", + "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18344,7 +18477,7 @@ "title": "Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)).\n", + "description": "China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "0", @@ -18371,7 +18504,7 @@ "title": "Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)).\n", + "description": "Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -18384,8 +18517,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "464", - "numforecasters": "355", + "numforecasts": "471", + "numforecasters": "357", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18393,7 +18526,7 @@ "title": "For how many weeks will Adam Grant's \"Think Again\" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Author Adam Grant's latest book, \"Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,\" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)).\nNOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count.\n", + "description": "Author Adam Grant's latest book, \"Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,\" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 4", @@ -18407,12 +18540,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 9 and 13", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 14 and 18", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18421,8 +18554,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "338", - "numforecasters": "252", + "numforecasts": "347", + "numforecasters": "254", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4, Between 4 and 8, Between 9 and 13, Between 14 and 18, More than 18" }, @@ -18430,7 +18563,7 @@ "title": "Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).\n", + "description": "The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -18443,8 +18576,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "356", - "numforecasters": "311", + "numforecasts": "371", + "numforecasters": "314", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18452,21 +18585,21 @@ "title": "In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)).\n", + "description": "The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "211", - "numforecasters": "181", + "numforecasts": "212", + "numforecasters": "182", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18474,7 +18607,7 @@ "title": "How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.\n", + "description": "With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 8,000,000", @@ -18483,7 +18616,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18493,7 +18626,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18502,8 +18635,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "251", - "numforecasters": "182", + "numforecasts": "257", + "numforecasters": "185", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 8,000,000, Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive, More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000, Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive, More than 14,000,000" }, @@ -18520,12 +18653,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18539,7 +18672,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "67", + "numforecasts": "69", "numforecasters": "24", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $0.50, Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive, More than $1.00 but less than $2.50, Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive, More than $5.00" @@ -18552,12 +18685,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.4%", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18576,8 +18709,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "152", - "numforecasters": "89", + "numforecasts": "158", + "numforecasters": "91", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.4%, Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive, More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%, Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive, More than 7.1%" }, @@ -18594,17 +18727,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18613,8 +18746,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "125", - "numforecasters": "50", + "numforecasts": "132", + "numforecasters": "51", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.000, Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive, More than 1.500 but less than 2.000, Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive, More than 2.500" }, @@ -18640,7 +18773,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "122", + "numforecasts": "124", "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled, Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled, No" @@ -18649,7 +18782,7 @@ "title": "Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)).\n", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less", @@ -18667,8 +18800,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "472", - "numforecasters": "322", + "numforecasts": "485", + "numforecasters": "329", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less, Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more, Neither will occur before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -18702,16 +18835,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "160", + "numforecasts": "166", "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -18724,16 +18857,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "185", + "numforecasts": "188", "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -18777,7 +18910,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "210", + "numforecasts": "213", "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -18799,8 +18932,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "175", - "numforecasters": "135", + "numforecasts": "179", + "numforecasters": "136", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18812,7 +18945,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only SpaceX", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18827,11 +18960,11 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "169", + "numforecasts": "170", "numforecasters": "119", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only SpaceX, Yes, only Virgin Galactic, Yes, both, No" @@ -18853,7 +18986,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "151", + "numforecasts": "152", "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -18881,12 +19014,12 @@ }, { "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another team", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18895,7 +19028,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "133", + "numforecasts": "135", "numforecasters": "53", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Another team, There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship" @@ -18908,16 +19041,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "146", + "numforecasts": "147", "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -18961,7 +19094,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "267", + "numforecasts": "272", "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19011,12 +19144,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19030,7 +19163,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "141", + "numforecasts": "143", "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive, More than $500 million but less than $1 billion, Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive, More than $1.75 billion" @@ -19052,7 +19185,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "93", + "numforecasts": "94", "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19079,7 +19212,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "86", + "numforecasts": "89", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" @@ -19092,16 +19225,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "200", + "numforecasts": "203", "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19145,8 +19278,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "249", - "numforecasters": "145", + "numforecasts": "252", + "numforecasters": "146", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19154,7 +19287,7 @@ "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0b68676a79626d62686a7f626465784b6c64646f617e6f6c666e657f2568646634787e69616e687f365a7e6e787f6264652e393b48676a79626d62686a7f626465). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#17747b76657e717e7476637e78796457707878737d6273707a7279633974787a286462757d7274632a46627264637e7879322527547b76657e717e7476637e7879). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -19167,7 +19300,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "372", + "numforecasts": "377", "numforecasters": "192", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19190,21 +19323,21 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 June 2021", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "355", + "numforecasts": "367", "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021" @@ -19217,17 +19350,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "7 or fewer", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 8 and 14", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 15 and 21", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19241,8 +19374,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "419", - "numforecasters": "107", + "numforecasts": "436", + "numforecasters": "108", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "7 or fewer, Between 8 and 14, Between 15 and 21, Between 22 and 28, 29 or more" }, @@ -19263,7 +19396,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "156", + "numforecasts": "157", "numforecasters": "115", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19276,16 +19409,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "252", + "numforecasts": "260", "numforecasters": "142", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19298,16 +19431,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "83", + "numforecasts": "84", "numforecasters": "49", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19339,7 +19472,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "168", + "numforecasts": "170", "numforecasters": "89", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 226 seats, Between 226 seats and 299 seats, 300 seats or more, Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021" @@ -19366,7 +19499,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "75", + "numforecasts": "76", "numforecasters": "36", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats, Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most, No" @@ -19379,21 +19512,21 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 18 September 2021", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "181", + "numforecasts": "188", "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021, Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021, Not before 18 September 2021" @@ -19415,7 +19548,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "97", + "numforecasts": "100", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19433,7 +19566,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19443,7 +19576,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19452,8 +19585,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "230", - "numforecasters": "67", + "numforecasts": "233", + "numforecasters": "68", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion" }, @@ -19501,7 +19634,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "115", + "numforecasts": "116", "numforecasters": "66", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador, Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador, No" @@ -19523,7 +19656,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "267", + "numforecasts": "268", "numforecasters": "136", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19545,7 +19678,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "247", + "numforecasts": "251", "numforecasters": "90", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19594,7 +19727,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "186", + "numforecasts": "188", "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" @@ -19621,7 +19754,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "206", + "numforecasts": "207", "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the most valuable in the world, No, but the most valuable in the United States, No" @@ -19630,26 +19763,26 @@ "title": "Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#80e3ece1f2e9e6e9e3e1f4e9efeef3c0e7efefe4eaf5e4e7ede5eef4aee3efedbff3f5e2eae5e3f4bdd1f5e5f3f4e9efeea5b2b0c3ece1f2e9e6e9e3e1f4e9efee). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n", + "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#6f0c030e1d0609060c0e1b0600011c2f0800000b051a0b08020a011b410c0002501c1a0d050a0c1b523e1a0a1c1b0600014a5d5f2c030e1d0609060c0e1b060001). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Nicaragua", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "St. Lucia", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "There will be a draw", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "194", - "numforecasters": "124", + "numforecasts": "198", + "numforecasters": "125", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicaragua, St. Lucia, There will be a draw" }, @@ -19666,17 +19799,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19685,7 +19818,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "272", + "numforecasts": "275", "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.500, Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive, More than 2.000 but less than 2.500, Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive, More than 3.000" @@ -19707,7 +19840,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "218", + "numforecasts": "220", "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19734,8 +19867,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "338", - "numforecasters": "143", + "numforecasts": "342", + "numforecasters": "144", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party, Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party, There will not be an election before 1 April 2021" }, @@ -19761,7 +19894,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "107", + "numforecasts": "108", "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" @@ -19805,7 +19938,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "177", + "numforecasts": "178", "numforecasters": "61", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19818,12 +19951,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19832,7 +19965,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "459", + "numforecasts": "460", "numforecasters": "194", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022, Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022, No" @@ -19850,7 +19983,7 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only by the EMA", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19860,11 +19993,11 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "427", + "numforecasts": "431", "numforecasters": "211", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only by the FDA, Yes, only by the EMA, Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA, No" @@ -19908,7 +20041,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "357", + "numforecasts": "359", "numforecasters": "226", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19930,7 +20063,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "283", + "numforecasts": "285", "numforecasters": "103", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19952,7 +20085,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "426", + "numforecasts": "429", "numforecasters": "108", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19984,7 +20117,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "328", + "numforecasts": "332", "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only Michael Kovrig, Yes, only Michael Spavor, Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, No" @@ -20065,7 +20198,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "84", + "numforecasts": "85", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20087,7 +20220,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "400", + "numforecasts": "402", "numforecasters": "205", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20131,7 +20264,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "81", + "numforecasts": "83", "numforecasters": "31", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20154,12 +20287,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than $2.50 but less than $3.00", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20168,7 +20301,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "254", + "numforecasts": "256", "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $2.00, Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive, More than $2.50 but less than $3.00, Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive, More than $3.50" @@ -20200,7 +20333,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "136", + "numforecasts": "140", "numforecasters": "30", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only for president, Yes, only for parliament, Yes, for both president and parliament, No" @@ -20222,7 +20355,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "437", + "numforecasts": "440", "numforecasters": "203", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20235,7 +20368,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20255,7 +20388,7 @@ }, { "name": "Another candidate", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20264,7 +20397,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "202", + "numforecasts": "207", "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action), A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress), A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force), A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party), Another candidate, There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021" @@ -20286,7 +20419,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "566", + "numforecasts": "573", "numforecasters": "200", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20314,17 +20447,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 8.0%", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "543", - "numforecasters": "247", + "numforecasts": "545", + "numforecasters": "248", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive, More than 8.0%" }, @@ -20332,7 +20465,7 @@ "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).\n", + "description": "The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Zero", @@ -20351,17 +20484,17 @@ }, { "name": "3", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or more", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1702", - "numforecasters": "587", + "numforecasts": "1713", + "numforecasters": "589", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more" }, @@ -20414,7 +20547,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "329", + "numforecasts": "331", "numforecasters": "204", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20436,8 +20569,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "536", - "numforecasters": "242", + "numforecasts": "543", + "numforecasters": "245", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20458,8 +20591,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "227", - "numforecasters": "125", + "numforecasts": "228", + "numforecasters": "126", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20480,7 +20613,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "319", + "numforecasts": "320", "numforecasters": "185", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20502,7 +20635,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "315", + "numforecasts": "316", "numforecasters": "165", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20561,7 +20694,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "230", + "numforecasts": "232", "numforecasters": "58", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20633,16 +20766,16 @@ }, { "name": "7 or 8", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "9 or more", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1419", + "numforecasts": "1426", "numforecasters": "207", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "3, 4, 5 or 6, 7 or 8, 9 or more" @@ -20664,7 +20797,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "287", + "numforecasts": "289", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20714,17 +20847,17 @@ }, { "name": "3", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or more", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "153", - "numforecasters": "43", + "numforecasts": "155", + "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more" }, @@ -20782,7 +20915,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "551", + "numforecasts": "555", "numforecasters": "152", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021" @@ -20795,16 +20928,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "737", + "numforecasts": "745", "numforecasters": "156", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20813,7 +20946,7 @@ "title": "What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).\n", + "description": "As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.00%", @@ -20822,7 +20955,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20832,7 +20965,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20841,8 +20974,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "483", - "numforecasters": "220", + "numforecasts": "488", + "numforecasters": "222", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.00%, Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive, More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%, Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive, More than 8.00%" }, @@ -20878,7 +21011,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "482", + "numforecasts": "483", "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0 million, Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive, More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million" @@ -20910,8 +21043,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "461", - "numforecasters": "68", + "numforecasts": "462", + "numforecasters": "69", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021" }, @@ -20932,7 +21065,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "210", + "numforecasts": "211", "numforecasters": "65", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20954,7 +21087,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "414", + "numforecasts": "416", "numforecasters": "159", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20977,12 +21110,12 @@ }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Italy", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21001,7 +21134,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "356", + "numforecasts": "366", "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Another country, There will not be a 2020-21 final winner" @@ -21060,7 +21193,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1157", + "numforecasts": "1160", "numforecasters": "454", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21082,7 +21215,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "387", + "numforecasts": "388", "numforecasters": "160", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21104,7 +21237,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "333", + "numforecasts": "335", "numforecasters": "153", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21126,7 +21259,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "718", + "numforecasts": "722", "numforecasters": "166", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21163,7 +21296,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "842", + "numforecasts": "849", "numforecasters": "167", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021" @@ -21185,7 +21318,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "207", + "numforecasts": "208", "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21207,7 +21340,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "325", + "numforecasts": "326", "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21229,8 +21362,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "637", - "numforecasters": "184", + "numforecasts": "642", + "numforecasters": "185", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21289,17 +21422,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 April 2021", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "287", - "numforecasters": "59", + "numforecasts": "294", + "numforecasters": "61", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 October 2020, Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021" }, @@ -21367,7 +21500,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "301", + "numforecasts": "302", "numforecasters": "108", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service, Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package, Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service, No" @@ -21413,7 +21546,7 @@ "title": "When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.\n", + "description": "As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 January 2021", @@ -21436,8 +21569,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "860", - "numforecasters": "297", + "numforecasts": "866", + "numforecasters": "299", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -21445,7 +21578,7 @@ "title": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#72111e13001b141b1113061b1d1c0132151d1d16180716151f171c065c111d1f4d010710181711064f23071701061b1d1c574042311e13001b141b1113061b1d1c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#23404f42514a454a4042574a4c4d5063444c4c47495647444e464d570d404c4e1c505641494640571e72564650574a4c4d061113604f42514a454a4042574a4c4d). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -21458,7 +21591,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "294", + "numforecasts": "295", "numforecasters": "138", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21467,20 +21600,20 @@ "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#97f4fbf6e5fef1fef4f6e3fef8f9e4d7f0f8f8f3fde2f3f0faf2f9e3b9f4f8faa8e4e2f5fdf2f4e3aac6e2f2e4e3fef8f9b2a5a7d4fbf6e5fef1fef4f6e3fef8f9). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c9aaa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7ba89aea6a6ada3bcadaea4aca7bde7aaa6a4f6babcaba3acaabdf498bcacbabda0a6a7ecfbf98aa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "648", + "numforecasts": "652", "numforecasters": "142", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21595,7 +21728,7 @@ "title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#bcdfd0ddced5dad5dfddc8d5d3d2cffcdbd3d3d8d6c9d8dbd1d9d2c892dfd3d183cfc9ded6d9dfc881edc9d9cfc8d5d3d2998e8cffd0ddced5dad5dfddc8d5d3d2). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5c3f303d2e353a353f3d283533322f1c3b3333383629383b31393228723f3331632f293e36393f28610d29392f28353332796e6c1f303d2e353a353f3d28353332). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 2.5 million", @@ -21623,8 +21756,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1182", - "numforecasters": "180", + "numforecasts": "1185", + "numforecasters": "181", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 2.5 million, Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive, More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million, Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive, More than 20.0 million" }, @@ -21632,7 +21765,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e88b84899a818e818b899c8187869ba88f87878c829d8c8f858d869cc68b8785d79b9d8a828d8b9cd5b99d8d9b9c818786cddad8ab84899a818e818b899c818786). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, the Olympics only", @@ -21646,17 +21779,17 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "2034", - "numforecasters": "832", + "numforecasts": "2054", + "numforecasters": "838", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the Olympics only, Yes, the Paralympics only, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -21664,20 +21797,20 @@ "title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#76151a17041f101f1517021f19180536111919121c0312111b1318025815191b490503141c1315024b27031305021f1918534446351a17041f101f1517021f1918). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b5d6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadbc6f5d2dadad1dfc0d1d2d8d0dbc19bd6dad88ac6c0d7dfd0d6c188e4c0d0c6c1dcdadb908785f6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadb). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "243", + "numforecasts": "244", "numforecasters": "110", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21686,7 +21819,7 @@ "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#44272825362d222d2725302d2b2a3704232b2b202e31202329212a306a272b297b3731262e2127307915312137302d2b2a617674072825362d222d2725302d2b2a). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e0838c8192898689838194898f8e93a0878f8f848a9584878d858e94ce838f8ddf9395828a858394ddb195859394898f8ec5d2d0a38c8192898689838194898f8e). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -21699,7 +21832,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1072", + "numforecasts": "1075", "numforecasters": "463", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21782,7 +21915,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#31525d5043585758525045585e5f4271565e5e555b4455565c545f451f525e5c0e4244535b5452450c6044544245585e5f140301725d5043585758525045585e5f). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#f5969994879c939c9694819c9a9b86b5929a9a919f80919298909b81db969a98ca8680979f909681c8a4809086819c9a9bd0c7c5b69994879c939c9694819c9a9b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "0", @@ -21864,7 +21997,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "284", + "numforecasts": "286", "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $80 per kWh, Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive, More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh, Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive, More than $140 per kWh" @@ -21901,7 +22034,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "430", + "numforecasts": "432", "numforecasters": "148", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.5%, Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%, Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive, More than 8.5%" @@ -21957,12 +22090,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22037,57 +22170,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.028571428571428567, + "probability": 0.02941176470588235, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pierre de Villiers", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.047619047619047616, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.15238095238095237, + "probability": 0.14705882352941177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.5428571428571428, + "probability": 0.5490196078431372, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Piolle", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another woman", - "probability": 0.03809523809523809, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another man", - "probability": 0.13333333333333333, + "probability": 0.1372549019607843, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22102,22 +22235,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Macron and Le Pen", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.6213592233009709, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.14563106796116507, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.20388349514563106, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither of them", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02912621359223301, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22132,12 +22265,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9705882352941175, + "probability": 0.9801980198019803, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22152,17 +22285,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)", - "probability": 0.7647058823529411, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Later in 2021", - "probability": 0.20588235294117646, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not in 2021", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22177,17 +22310,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19801980198019803, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Japan", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.7920792079207921, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Same medals count", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22217,32 +22350,32 @@ }, { "name": "March 2021", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "April 2021", - "probability": 0.06930693069306931, + "probability": 0.09615384615384615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "May 2021", - "probability": 0.26732673267326734, + "probability": 0.2884615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "June 2021", - "probability": 0.36633663366336633, + "probability": 0.29807692307692313, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe after June 2021", - "probability": 0.28712871287128716, + "probability": 0.3076923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22257,12 +22390,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22277,22 +22410,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani", - "probability": 0.15533980582524273, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdelilah Benkirane", - "probability": 0.07766990291262137, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else from PJD", - "probability": 0.01941747572815534, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else not from PJD", - "probability": 0.7475728155339806, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22482,27 +22615,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.2830188679245283, + "probability": 0.2777777777777778, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.339622641509434, + "probability": 0.33333333333333337, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.12264150943396226, + "probability": 0.1388888888888889, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.2358490566037736, + "probability": 0.23148148148148148, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22517,17 +22650,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.7017543859649122, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another Likud politician", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another politician not from Likud", - "probability": 0.2807017543859649, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22542,17 +22675,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Worse than the 2012 record", - "probability": 0.2653061224489796, + "probability": 0.2727272727272727, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012", - "probability": 0.22448979591836735, + "probability": 0.22222222222222224, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not worse than 2020", - "probability": 0.5102040816326531, + "probability": 0.5050505050505051, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22567,32 +22700,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)", - "probability": 0.19047619047619047, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)", - "probability": 0.6857142857142857, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another member of CDU/CSU", - "probability": 0.028571428571428567, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A member of SPD", - "probability": 0.028571428571428567, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A member of the Green party", - "probability": 0.057142857142857134, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22607,27 +22740,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "in Q1, 2021", - "probability": 0.0625, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.31250000000000006, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.11458333333333334, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.09375, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Perhaps later", - "probability": 0.41666666666666674, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22642,22 +22775,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.020202020202020204, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.686868686868687, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.20202020202020204, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.09090909090909091, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22672,22 +22805,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.8529411764705883, + "probability": 0.8461538461538461, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.10784313725490195, + "probability": 0.10576923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22707,12 +22840,12 @@ }, { "name": "Q1, 2021", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22767,12 +22900,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9504950495049505, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.04950495049504951, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22787,12 +22920,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.9038461538461539, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09615384615384615, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -23951,47 +24084,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.5017152370016653, + "probability": 0.5563445041300947, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Curtis Silwa", - "probability": 0.008593736237751295, + "probability": 0.008427792983356882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.21699184000322022, + "probability": 0.1891571314042322, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.09644081777920897, + "probability": 0.0851207091319045, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ray McGuire", - "probability": 0.05105690353016946, + "probability": 0.05007100537170853, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.07890612363753463, + "probability": 0.06547746856300346, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.03338336000049542, + "probability": 0.03273873428150173, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.004318245572203387, + "probability": 0.00423486115084102, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Giuliani", - "probability": 0.008593736237751295, + "probability": 0.008427792983356882, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24695,37 +24828,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.4695981722440792, + "probability": 0.44509874937307453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.4695981722440792, + "probability": 0.49455416597008284, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.004462350790976076, + "probability": 0.004428843277344025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.026380367911358563, + "probability": 0.026182279374886736, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time)", - "probability": 0.026380367911358563, + "probability": 0.026182279374886736, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "SDP", - "probability": 0.0017902844490742338, + "probability": 0.0017768413148625728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Heritage Party", - "probability": 0.0017902844490742338, + "probability": 0.0017768413148625728, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25375,12 +25508,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP Majority", - "probability": 0.5890052356020942, + "probability": 0.5361930294906166, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No SNP Majority", - "probability": 0.4109947643979057, + "probability": 0.4638069705093834, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25428,32 +25561,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 40%", - "probability": 0.041931742060984066, + "probability": 0.05189297347917039, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40-45%", - "probability": 0.19568146295125896, + "probability": 0.27144016896796824, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "45-50%", - "probability": 0.37154708155302335, + "probability": 0.3722280798083952, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50-55%", - "probability": 0.2935221944268885, + "probability": 0.23524814643890576, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55-60%", - "probability": 0.08005150757096959, + "probability": 0.05189297347917039, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Over 60%", - "probability": 0.017266011436875794, + "probability": 0.01729765782639013, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25467,12 +25600,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.7096069868995633, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.2903930131004367, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26386,6 +26519,49 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", + "numforecasts": 141, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n", + "numforecasts": 82, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/", @@ -26446,20 +26622,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", + "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", - "numforecasts": 221, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?", @@ -26504,6 +26691,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/", @@ -26526,7 +26740,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 213, + "numforecasts": 217, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -26537,31 +26751,84 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/", + "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.\nAustralia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).\nIn late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: \nWill Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 170, + "options": [], + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T14:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.\nThis question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. \nThis question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).\nResolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. \nIn case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.\nOther questions in the series. \nHow many new cases of COVID-19 in:\n---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) \nSimilar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n", + "numforecasts": 983, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 38, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", + "numforecasts": 118, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", + "numforecasts": 81, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", @@ -26590,22 +26857,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 81, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/", @@ -26622,6 +26873,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", + "numforecasts": 237, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.\nHow many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?\nThis will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. \n", + "numforecasts": 10, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/", @@ -26638,6 +26921,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.\nHowever, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.\nThese samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. \nBy the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?\n", + "numforecasts": 146, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/", @@ -26666,18 +26976,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/", + "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 172, + "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -26697,6 +27023,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n", + "numforecasts": 175, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.\nWill any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.\n", + "numforecasts": 28, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will Blue Origin's \"New Glenn\" rocket complete its first successful test flight?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/", @@ -26713,22 +27082,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.\n[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?\nIf /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as \"> 2025-12-31\".\n", - "numforecasts": 103, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/", @@ -26746,18 +27099,120 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/", + "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n", - "numforecasts": 28, + "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T03:10:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", + "numforecasts": 174, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities.\n[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time.\nHow many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 58, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-20T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", + "numforecasts": 63, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n", + "numforecasts": 167, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 103, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -26778,20 +27233,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", + "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n", - "numforecasts": 150, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n", + "numforecasts": 131, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?", @@ -26821,77 +27287,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/", + "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 125, + "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n", + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", - "numforecasts": 214, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n", - "numforecasts": 72, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -26912,18 +27319,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/", + "title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n", + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -26954,6 +27361,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n", + "numforecasts": 107, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n", + "numforecasts": 34, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/", @@ -26982,32 +27421,48 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/", + "title": "Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n", - "numforecasts": 93, + "description": "On October 29, 2020, CNBC host Scott Wapner [tweeted](https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC):\nHearing Tim Cook tell @CNBCJosh that the virus makes it too hard to give guidance highlights a big risk for the economy — that while we won’t lock down again, businesses could decide to shut their stores for periods rather than risk their customers or employees getting sick.\nLet's focus on Apple, since the company presumably has the resources and wherewithal to be able to implement best practice preventive measures, and understanding the precautions that they choose to implement may help shed light on the likely decisions of similar retail businesses.\nThe \"always open\" flagship [5th Ave Apple Store](https://www.apple.com/retail/fifthavenue/) location in New York City is providing face masks to shoppers, enforcing social distancing, doing temperature checks, and performing continuous cleaning, according to the store's website. But will these measures be enough to prevent a significant store closure during the 2020/2021 winter season?\nWill Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?\nResolution will be determined according to announcements made by Apple regarding opening and closing dates of their 5th Ave location.\n", + "numforecasts": 247, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-02T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-02-15T20:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T19:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 37, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/", @@ -27025,18 +27480,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/", + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -27057,48 +27512,21 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", + "title": "How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "description": "Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nHow many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report?\nResolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved.\nRelated question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/)\n", + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2032-06-11T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", - "numforecasts": 1169, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/", @@ -27159,48 +27587,21 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/", + "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: \n---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be \"commonplace\" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. \n---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty \"with 99.9 per cent accuracy\" \n---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour \"indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods\", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. \n---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost \"error-free\" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. \n---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become \"commonplace\" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study \n---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past \n---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century \n---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required \n---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying \nWhat percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)\nWhat percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?\nIn 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. \nExamples: \n---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. \n---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. \n---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. \nThe term \"robotic judges\" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase \"Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying\" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. \n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-02-15T00:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/", @@ -27229,29 +27630,56 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/", + "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", + "numforecasts": 12, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.57, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", + "numforecasts": 137, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -27271,22 +27699,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", @@ -27303,6 +27715,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris.\nThe latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV).\nWhen will GTA VI be released?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. \nThis date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.\n", + "numforecasts": 57, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", + "numforecasts": 575, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/", @@ -27330,6 +27785,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 256, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/", @@ -27347,21 +27829,48 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", - "numforecasts": 146, + "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 74, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/", @@ -27390,12 +27899,12 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/", + "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -27406,29 +27915,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", + "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -27486,60 +27995,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 58, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 102, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/", @@ -27557,61 +28012,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/", + "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n", - "numforecasts": 188, + "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n", + "numforecasts": 106, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n", - "numforecasts": 91, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-04-27T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/", + "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n", + "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -27643,129 +28071,123 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", - "numforecasts": 82, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 125, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n", - "numforecasts": 16, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n", - "numforecasts": 55, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/", + "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n", + "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:24:03Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:21:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n", + "numforecasts": 13, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810.\nA plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv).\nWhat will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04.\n", + "numforecasts": 92, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023.\nThe \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).\nWill the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?\nThis question resolves \"yes\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\nThis question resolves \"no\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\n", + "numforecasts": 22, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", @@ -27783,21 +28205,155 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/", + "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n", - "numforecasts": 18, + "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n", + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6777/will-brazil-have-2000-covid-deaths-per-day/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "During the first wave in Brazil, the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths peaked at just over 1,050 deaths. Now, while total official deaths surpass 270,000, the country is experiencing a second deadlier wave, with [record-breaking](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425) COVID-19 deaths per day. Vaccination is still at a [slow pace](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/opinion/brazil-covid-vaccines.html) and a new coronavirus variant, [P1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/brazil-covid-variant-p1-britain) (more transmissible and with some chance to [evade the immune protection](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html) of previous illness), is imposing large stress over the national healthcare system, already close to its [full capacity](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-in-brazil-overwhelms-local-hospitals-hits-younger-patients-11614705337).\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths equal to or above 2,500 in Brazil before 1 June 2021 according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil?country=~BRA).\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.\nThe 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar [question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/#comment-47286). \n", + "numforecasts": 39, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the VIX index climb above 50?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.\nIt represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.\nBetween 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).\nThe question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.\nCompanion question:\n---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) \n", + "numforecasts": 104, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will PHP die?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 96, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", + "numforecasts": 90, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) \nUniversal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. \n", + "numforecasts": 13, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-03-14T20:35:35.109000Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T15:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", + "numforecasts": 61, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.\nThis question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? \nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.\n", + "numforecasts": 237, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/", @@ -27826,102 +28382,96 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", - "numforecasts": 109, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/", + "title": "When will One Piece end?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "description": "It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.).\nSo when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published?\nThis question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time).\nThis question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/", + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6385/vaccine-doses-administered-germany-by-april/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 22, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-25T14:31:11Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-03-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 247, + "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n", + "numforecasts": 196, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n", + "numforecasts": 35, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/", @@ -27939,72 +28489,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", + "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", + "numforecasts": 168, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", - "numforecasts": 117, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", - "numforecasts": 42, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -28056,22 +28563,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", - "numforecasts": 86, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/", @@ -28088,6 +28579,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", + "numforecasts": 86, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/", @@ -28115,6 +28622,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052)\nData of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html).\nWhen will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?\nResolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp.\nThe question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase.\nResolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.\n", + "numforecasts": 20, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/", @@ -28131,22 +28654,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", - "numforecasts": 152, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/", @@ -28164,45 +28671,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 141, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/", + "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n", - "numforecasts": 82, + "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n", + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", + "numforecasts": 153, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -28222,33 +28718,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", @@ -28335,33 +28804,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 216, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/", @@ -28379,32 +28821,48 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/", + "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", + "numforecasts": 221, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.\nWhen will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?\nTo qualify as a \"top\", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.\nThis question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.\nIf QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.\nIf the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \nEdit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. \n", + "numforecasts": 104, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/", @@ -28534,6 +28992,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", + "numforecasts": 37, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/", @@ -28598,6 +29072,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n", + "numforecasts": 61, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-02T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-19T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/", @@ -28625,38 +29115,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n", - "numforecasts": 60, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-19T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/", @@ -28673,22 +29131,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.\nThis question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. \nThis question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).\nResolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. \nIn case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.\nOther questions in the series. \nHow many new cases of COVID-19 in:\n---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) \nSimilar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n", - "numforecasts": 983, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/", @@ -28716,22 +29158,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 38, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/", @@ -28920,56 +29346,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.\nWhen will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?\nTo qualify as a \"top\", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.\nThis question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.\nIf QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.\nIf the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \nEdit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. \n", - "numforecasts": 101, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", @@ -28979,6 +29362,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.46, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n", + "numforecasts": 63, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-07T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How much global warming by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n", + "numforecasts": 480, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/", @@ -29050,18 +29476,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How much global warming by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/", + "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n", - "numforecasts": 479, + "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -29082,50 +29508,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/", + "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", - "numforecasts": 118, + "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 473, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/", + "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", + "numforecasts": 71, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 46, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -29161,22 +29571,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", - "numforecasts": 237, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/", @@ -29184,17 +29578,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. \nWho will win? \nResolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.\n", - "numforecasts": 874, + "numforecasts": 875, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-10-18T15:13:45Z", @@ -29221,7 +29615,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 520, + "numforecasts": 521, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", @@ -29333,22 +29727,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/", @@ -29366,18 +29744,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/", + "title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -29408,6 +29786,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", @@ -29511,20 +29905,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/", + "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.\nHow many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?\nThis will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. \n", - "numforecasts": 10, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", + "numforecasts": 1177, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?", @@ -29570,7 +29975,7 @@ } ], "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n", - "numforecasts": 82, + "numforecasts": 84, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", @@ -29628,6 +30033,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 61, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:37:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-19T22:37:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/", @@ -29656,56 +30077,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/", + "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.\nHowever, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.\nThese samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. \nBy the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?\n", - "numforecasts": 146, + "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", + "numforecasts": 150, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", - "numforecasts": 196, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -29742,7 +30136,7 @@ } ], "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n
  • A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
  • A single important ‘deployment’ event
  • Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)
    • \n", - "numforecasts": 501, + "numforecasts": 502, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z", @@ -29752,33 +30146,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", - "numforecasts": 150, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/", @@ -29839,7 +30206,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z", @@ -29865,13 +30232,29 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 54, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n", - "numforecasts": 127, + "numforecasts": 128, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z", @@ -29881,38 +30264,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", - "numforecasts": 73, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", @@ -29945,6 +30296,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 267, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/", @@ -29994,7 +30372,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n", - "numforecasts": 240, + "numforecasts": 241, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", @@ -30021,45 +30399,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.\nWill any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.\n", - "numforecasts": 28, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/", + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -30079,6 +30430,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", + "numforecasts": 103, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", @@ -30096,7 +30474,7 @@ } ], "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", - "numforecasts": 95, + "numforecasts": 105, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", @@ -30107,29 +30485,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/", + "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45999999999999996, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n", - "numforecasts": 969, + "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", + "numforecasts": 200, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -30161,29 +30539,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/", + "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31999999999999995, + "probability": 0.45999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n", + "numforecasts": 970, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -30220,20 +30598,85 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/", + "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n", + "numforecasts": 95, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae.\nWill we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050.\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met.\n", + "numforecasts": 15, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T02:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.68, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.31999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?", @@ -30241,7 +30684,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", @@ -30252,31 +30695,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/", + "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae.\nWill we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050.\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met.\n", - "numforecasts": 13, + "options": [], + "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n", + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T02:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", @@ -30306,52 +30738,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/", + "title": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.\nAdditionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.\nWhen will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?\nThis question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.\n", - "numforecasts": 16, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n", + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", - "numforecasts": 23, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n", - "numforecasts": 128, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?", @@ -30380,6 +30791,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.\nAdditionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.\nWhen will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?\nThis question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.\n", + "numforecasts": 16, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T17:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n", + "numforecasts": 128, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/", @@ -30402,7 +30845,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. \nIn May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), \nThe scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]\nIn 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.\nIf GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\".\n", - "numforecasts": 342, + "numforecasts": 344, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z", @@ -30413,31 +30856,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/", + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", - "numforecasts": 379, + "options": [], + "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?", @@ -30467,29 +30899,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.45999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", - "numforecasts": 174, + "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", + "numforecasts": 381, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -30526,7 +30958,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n", - "numforecasts": 312, + "numforecasts": 313, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z", @@ -30553,7 +30985,7 @@ } ], "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -30563,33 +30995,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 218, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/", @@ -30607,7 +31012,7 @@ } ], "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 170, + "numforecasts": 173, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z", @@ -30617,6 +31022,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n", + "numforecasts": 32, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/", @@ -30634,7 +31066,7 @@ } ], "description": "It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.\nBy 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years or less?\nThe question resolves positively the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "numforecasts": 249, + "numforecasts": 252, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-11T07:00:00Z", @@ -30644,22 +31076,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", - "numforecasts": 105, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/", @@ -30720,7 +31136,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 338, + "numforecasts": 341, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -30730,22 +31146,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities.\n[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time.\nHow many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 58, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-20T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/", @@ -30805,6 +31205,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 92, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/", @@ -30822,20 +31249,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", + "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", + "numforecasts": 570, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?", @@ -30864,49 +31302,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 28, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", - "numforecasts": 569, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/", @@ -30939,33 +31334,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 63, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/", @@ -31020,38 +31388,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n", - "numforecasts": 167, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 103, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/", @@ -31068,6 +31404,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", + "numforecasts": 255, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/", @@ -31085,7 +31437,7 @@ } ], "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 162, + "numforecasts": 165, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", @@ -31095,49 +31447,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 255, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6777/will-brazil-have-2000-covid-deaths-per-day/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.59, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41000000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "During the first wave in Brazil, the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths peaked at just over 1,050 deaths. Now, while total official deaths surpass 270,000, the country is experiencing a second deadlier wave, with [record-breaking](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425) COVID-19 deaths per day. Vaccination is still at a [slow pace](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/opinion/brazil-covid-vaccines.html) and a new coronavirus variant, [P1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/brazil-covid-variant-p1-britain) (more transmissible and with some chance to [evade the immune protection](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html) of previous illness), is imposing large stress over the national healthcare system, already close to its [full capacity](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-in-brazil-overwhelms-local-hospitals-hits-younger-patients-11614705337).\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths equal to or above 2,500 in Brazil before 1 June 2021 according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil?country=~BRA).\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.\nThe 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar [question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/#comment-47286). \n", - "numforecasts": 32, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/", @@ -31165,49 +31474,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n", - "numforecasts": 131, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 39, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", @@ -31289,33 +31555,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", - "numforecasts": 42, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/", @@ -31333,72 +31572,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", + "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 1152, + "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 33, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", - "numforecasts": 33, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -31429,22 +31625,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n", - "numforecasts": 56, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-15T00:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/", @@ -31477,22 +31657,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n", - "numforecasts": 91, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/", @@ -31558,7 +31722,7 @@ } ], "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 589, + "numforecasts": 590, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -31568,6 +31732,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", + "numforecasts": 490, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/", @@ -31680,22 +31860,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", @@ -31867,6 +32031,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", + "numforecasts": 34, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/", @@ -31883,6 +32074,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n", + "numforecasts": 330, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/", @@ -31910,40 +32128,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n", - "numforecasts": 328, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", @@ -31953,33 +32144,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 447, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", @@ -31997,7 +32161,7 @@ } ], "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", - "numforecasts": 247, + "numforecasts": 248, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", @@ -32007,6 +32171,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 448, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/", @@ -32061,33 +32252,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 230, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", @@ -32115,6 +32279,60 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", + "numforecasts": 230, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", + "numforecasts": 1154, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/", @@ -32132,7 +32350,7 @@ } ], "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 280, + "numforecasts": 282, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -32158,6 +32376,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", + "numforecasts": 219, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/", @@ -32191,7 +32436,7 @@ } ], "description": "The 2008 financial crisis was [\"considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nAccording to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&start=1961&view=chart)), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%).\nQuestion: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?\nEstimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers.\nThis question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/).\n", - "numforecasts": 791, + "numforecasts": 795, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z", @@ -32261,7 +32506,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 110, + "numforecasts": 112, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -32271,22 +32516,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nHow many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report?\nResolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved.\nRelated question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/)\n", - "numforecasts": 52, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2032-06-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/", @@ -32421,60 +32650,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", - "numforecasts": 134, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", - "numforecasts": 12, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/", @@ -32492,34 +32667,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/", + "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris.\nThe latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV).\nWhen will GTA VI be released?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. \nThis date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n", - "numforecasts": 145, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -32566,29 +32725,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March\n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -32599,29 +32742,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", + "title": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.07999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 510, + "description": "Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.\nAustralia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).\nIn late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: \nWill Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 174, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T14:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -32653,29 +32796,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", + "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", - "numforecasts": 575, + "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 513, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -32792,33 +32935,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 74, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/", @@ -32889,49 +33005,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", - "numforecasts": 69, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n", - "numforecasts": 202, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T22:01:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", @@ -32948,49 +33021,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n", - "numforecasts": 106, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", - "numforecasts": 23, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/", @@ -33018,6 +33048,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", + "numforecasts": 23, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/", @@ -33050,13 +33107,56 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.82, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n", + "numforecasts": 202, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T22:01:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n", + "numforecasts": 25, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", @@ -33082,6 +33182,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", + "numforecasts": 111, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", @@ -33098,6 +33214,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n", + "numforecasts": 147, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/", @@ -33168,33 +33300,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/", @@ -33211,38 +33316,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:24:03Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:21:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n", - "numforecasts": 13, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/", @@ -33259,22 +33332,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810.\nA plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv).\nWhat will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04.\n", - "numforecasts": 92, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", @@ -33307,33 +33364,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023.\nThe \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).\nWill the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?\nThis question resolves \"yes\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\nThis question resolves \"no\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/", @@ -33350,13 +33380,29 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", + "numforecasts": 222, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", - "numforecasts": 224, + "numforecasts": 226, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -33383,80 +33429,171 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will PHP die?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", + "title": "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 96, + "description": "On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.\n[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?\nIf /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as \"> 2025-12-31\".\n", + "numforecasts": 103, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/", + "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n", + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T03:10:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", + "title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n", + "numforecasts": 150, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/", + "title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.\nThis question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? \nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.\n", - "numforecasts": 237, + "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n", + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 125, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", + "numforecasts": 214, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: \n---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be \"commonplace\" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. \n---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty \"with 99.9 per cent accuracy\" \n---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour \"indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods\", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. \n---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost \"error-free\" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. \n---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become \"commonplace\" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study \n---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past \n---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century \n---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required \n---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying \nWhat percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)\nWhat percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?\nIn 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. \nExamples: \n---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. \n---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. \n---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. \nThe term \"robotic judges\" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase \"Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying\" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. \n", + "numforecasts": 19, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 58, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 41, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/", @@ -33485,21 +33622,48 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/", + "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 470, + "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", + "numforecasts": 147, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 89, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", @@ -33517,208 +33681,252 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will One Piece end?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/", + "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.).\nSo when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published?\nThis question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time).\nThis question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n", + "numforecasts": 188, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", + "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n", + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-04-27T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6385/vaccine-doses-administered-germany-by-april/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 22, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-25T14:31:11Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-03-31T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/", + "title": "Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n", + "numforecasts": 17, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 196, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/", + "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", - "numforecasts": 168, + "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 125, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", + "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", - "numforecasts": 613, + "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n", + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/", + "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052)\nData of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html).\nWhen will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?\nResolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp.\nThe question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase.\nResolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.\n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.56, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", + "numforecasts": 111, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n", + "numforecasts": 40, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/", + "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 247, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?", @@ -33747,6 +33955,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", + "numforecasts": 65, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/", @@ -33774,22 +34009,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue?\nThe admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 216, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/", @@ -33807,7 +34026,7 @@ } ], "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", - "numforecasts": 871, + "numforecasts": 872, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", @@ -33817,6 +34036,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue?\nThe admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 216, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", + "numforecasts": 117, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/", @@ -33898,6 +34149,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", + "numforecasts": 42, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/", @@ -33957,6 +34235,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", + "numforecasts": 622, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", @@ -33979,7 +34284,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -34006,7 +34311,7 @@ } ], "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 301, + "numforecasts": 313, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -34070,7 +34375,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", - "numforecasts": 207, + "numforecasts": 211, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", @@ -34087,17 +34392,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 81, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -34183,7 +34488,7 @@ } ], "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z", @@ -34193,40 +34498,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.040000000000000036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 248, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", - "numforecasts": 211, + "numforecasts": 213, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", @@ -34312,7 +34590,7 @@ } ], "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", - "numforecasts": 2710, + "numforecasts": 2723, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", @@ -34355,7 +34633,7 @@ } ], "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n", - "numforecasts": 556, + "numforecasts": 557, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z", @@ -34371,7 +34649,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n", - "numforecasts": 186, + "numforecasts": 201, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -34381,6 +34659,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.\nWhat will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?\nThis question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2.\n", + "numforecasts": 104, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-02T05:02:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-09T06:03:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/", @@ -34398,7 +34692,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n", - "numforecasts": 173, + "numforecasts": 174, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z", @@ -34408,22 +34702,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.\nWhat will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?\nThis question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2.\n", - "numforecasts": 104, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-02T05:02:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-09T06:03:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/", @@ -34526,6 +34804,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 77, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/", @@ -34553,22 +34847,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 76, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5824/uk-to-cut-international-aid/", @@ -34662,17 +34940,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n", - "numforecasts": 542, + "numforecasts": 552, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", @@ -34699,7 +34977,7 @@ } ], "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", - "numforecasts": 1320, + "numforecasts": 1329, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", @@ -34726,7 +35004,7 @@ } ], "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 217, + "numforecasts": 225, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", @@ -34844,7 +35122,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will Russia become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", @@ -34860,7 +35138,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n", - "numforecasts": 117, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z", @@ -35086,7 +35364,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage real GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved between Jan 1, 2020 to Dec 31, 2029.\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n", - "numforecasts": 174, + "numforecasts": 176, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -35096,22 +35374,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", - "numforecasts": 470, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/", @@ -35505,17 +35767,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.\nBut life could take many forms:\n---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). \n---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). \n---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). \n---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consistently implementing a sentient computation). \nThese examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space.\nQuestion: If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based?\nLife-form details:\n1--The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life. \n2--The life-forms that count for this question are ones on the complexity level of our single-celled organisms or lower (as determined by a poll of xeno-biologists if there is any ambiguity). If there are none, then the simplest life-forms we have found are taken for resolution. \n3--The life-form has to need less than 1% of its atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. It can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be absent and the life-form still be alive. \nResolution details:\n---The scientific community has to have reached a consensus as judged by Metaculus admins. \n---This resolves positive if any life-form we encounter satisfies points 1. 2. and 3. \n---This resolves negative if all the life-forms we encounter that satisfy points 1. and 2. do not satisfiy point 3. \n---This resolves ambiguous if no life-form that satisfies point 1. is found before 2500, or if before then we have conclusive evidence that none exists in the observable universe. \n---This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. \n* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.\nNote that in this sense Humans are only \"based\" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). \n", - "numforecasts": 143, + "numforecasts": 145, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -35665,7 +35927,7 @@ } ], "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 1066, + "numforecasts": 1067, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -35734,33 +35996,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 1107, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-08-01T09:32:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:35:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/", @@ -35804,6 +36039,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 1109, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-08-01T09:32:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:35:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/", @@ -35831,6 +36093,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 258, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-01T05:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/", @@ -35858,33 +36147,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.76, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 257, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-01T05:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will there be at least one billion Americans?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/", @@ -35950,7 +36212,7 @@ } ], "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 715, + "numforecasts": 716, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", @@ -36116,7 +36378,7 @@ } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n", - "numforecasts": 140, + "numforecasts": 141, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -36181,17 +36443,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08999999999999997, + "probability": 0.07999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\n
  • There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
    • \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 313, + "numforecasts": 315, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", @@ -36416,7 +36678,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. \nThe potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.\nAn early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.\nThis question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth? \nThe date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'\nBy 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.\nThis means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.\nResolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, + "numforecasts": 100, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-05-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -36458,6 +36720,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.\n\nQuestion\n\nHow many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?\n\nDefinitions\n\nEndurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.\nExtra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.\nWe'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:\n--- \nwas born in the 1990s,\n--- \ndoesn't smoke,\n--- \neats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,\n--- \nhas body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,\n--- \ndrinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and\n--- \nlives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).\n\nResolution\n\nThe question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).\n--- \nIf the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.\n--- \nIf the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.\nOtherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.\n", + "numforecasts": 118, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-10T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/", @@ -36485,22 +36763,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.\n\nQuestion\n\nHow many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?\n\nDefinitions\n\nEndurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.\nExtra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.\nWe'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:\n--- \nwas born in the 1990s,\n--- \ndoesn't smoke,\n--- \neats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,\n--- \nhas body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,\n--- \ndrinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and\n--- \nlives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).\n\nResolution\n\nThe question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).\n--- \nIf the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.\n--- \nIf the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.\nOtherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.\n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-10T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/", @@ -36523,7 +36785,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 435, + "numforecasts": 436, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -36566,7 +36828,7 @@ } ], "description": "NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030.\nSpaceX has been working on its own \"Mars\" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026.\nWill NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?\nThe resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events:\n1) A mission substantially (>30%) or wholly funded by NASA successfully returns a sample from the surface of Mars to Earth.\n2) A rocket build by SpaceX designated as \"Starship\" or clearly designated as a successor to Starship successfully lands on Mars.\nThe question will resolve positive if event 1) happens before event 2).\nThe question will resolve negatively if event 2) happens before event 1).\nIf neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNote that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it. Because the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative.\nSimilarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth.\nIt is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -36615,17 +36877,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 171, + "numforecasts": 172, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -36658,17 +36920,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", @@ -37124,7 +37386,7 @@ } ], "description": "Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time.\nTherefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?\nA positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost.\nDue to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 535, + "numforecasts": 537, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -37328,7 +37590,7 @@ } ], "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n", - "numforecasts": 292, + "numforecasts": 293, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -37452,17 +37714,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "probability": 0.41000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n", - "numforecasts": 215, + "numforecasts": 217, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z", @@ -37489,7 +37751,7 @@ } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 148, + "numforecasts": 149, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", @@ -37515,6 +37777,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neural networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199). In particular, neural networks seem to suffer from a problem currently known as adversarial examples.\nAdversarial examples are images optimized so as to fool a machine learning algorithm, but remain unambiguous to humans. Current machine learning algorithms can be fooled by changes that are essentially impossible to perceive by humans. The issue of adversarial examples highlight differences in how humans and algorithms do image recognition. [\"Adversarial Examples - A Complete Characterisation of the Phenomenon\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01185) provides an extensive overview.\nNotably, adversarial examples can also be a security issue, for example by making it possible to bypass face or voice recognition used for authentication.\nRecently Google introduced [the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/09/introducing-unrestricted-adversarial.html). This challenge allows unrestricted inputs, allowing participants to submit arbitrary images from the target classes to develop and test models on a wider variety of adversarial examples. They ask models to answer the question \"Is this an unambiguous picture of a bird, a bicycle, or is it (ambiguous / not obvious)?\". The images are provided by attackers and are first labeled by humans. A small monetary prize will be awarded to any team that breaks a previously-unbroken defense with an eligible input.\nThe question asks:\n\nWhen will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nThe question will resolve when the large defender prize of the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge is awarded. This means that a defense (an image recognition algorithm) must remain unbroken for at least 90 days. [This file provides details of the challenge.](https://github.com/google/unrestricted-adversarial-examples/blob/7cf9c3e6a33d32de3c7f1568b655d391f7815370/contest_proposal.md#unrestricted-adversarial-examples-contest-proposal) The question will resolve even if the details of the challenge are modified as long as the spirit of the challenge remains the same. The question will resolve as ambiguous if the challenge is discontinued before the end of 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 160, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-03-11T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6142/us-states-with-gini-scores-5-by-2025/", @@ -37531,22 +37809,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neural networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199). In particular, neural networks seem to suffer from a problem currently known as adversarial examples.\nAdversarial examples are images optimized so as to fool a machine learning algorithm, but remain unambiguous to humans. Current machine learning algorithms can be fooled by changes that are essentially impossible to perceive by humans. The issue of adversarial examples highlight differences in how humans and algorithms do image recognition. [\"Adversarial Examples - A Complete Characterisation of the Phenomenon\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01185) provides an extensive overview.\nNotably, adversarial examples can also be a security issue, for example by making it possible to bypass face or voice recognition used for authentication.\nRecently Google introduced [the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/09/introducing-unrestricted-adversarial.html). This challenge allows unrestricted inputs, allowing participants to submit arbitrary images from the target classes to develop and test models on a wider variety of adversarial examples. They ask models to answer the question \"Is this an unambiguous picture of a bird, a bicycle, or is it (ambiguous / not obvious)?\". The images are provided by attackers and are first labeled by humans. A small monetary prize will be awarded to any team that breaks a previously-unbroken defense with an eligible input.\nThe question asks:\n\nWhen will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nThe question will resolve when the large defender prize of the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge is awarded. This means that a defense (an image recognition algorithm) must remain unbroken for at least 90 days. [This file provides details of the challenge.](https://github.com/google/unrestricted-adversarial-examples/blob/7cf9c3e6a33d32de3c7f1568b655d391f7815370/contest_proposal.md#unrestricted-adversarial-examples-contest-proposal) The question will resolve even if the details of the challenge are modified as long as the spirit of the challenge remains the same. The question will resolve as ambiguous if the challenge is discontinued before the end of 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 158, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-03-11T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/", @@ -37563,6 +37825,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n", + "numforecasts": 425, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/", @@ -37590,33 +37879,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n", - "numforecasts": 424, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/487/hutter-prize-when-will-a-compression-method-achieve-1-bit-per-character-on-a-100mb-sample-of-wikipedia/", @@ -37667,17 +37929,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 383, + "numforecasts": 385, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z", @@ -37709,7 +37971,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 682, + "numforecasts": 683, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", @@ -38127,22 +38389,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.\nIn 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.\n\nWhen will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?\n\n---This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. \n---A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. \n---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. \n---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. \n---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 96, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-28T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/", @@ -38160,7 +38406,7 @@ } ], "description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.\nWill Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?\nWill FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?\nThe question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. \n", - "numforecasts": 422, + "numforecasts": 423, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", @@ -38170,6 +38416,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.\nIn 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.\n\nWhen will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?\n\n---This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. \n---A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. \n---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. \n---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. \n---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 96, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-28T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/", @@ -38187,7 +38449,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 217, + "numforecasts": 218, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -38348,7 +38610,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 250, + "numforecasts": 252, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", @@ -38869,6 +39131,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", + "numforecasts": 66, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6710/us-school-staff-to-get-1st-dose-by-31-march/", @@ -38886,7 +39164,7 @@ } ], "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [\"every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program.\nWill every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. \nIf there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively.\n5 March edit: For this to resolve negatively, the >= 50 education staff would have had to have tried to make an appointment at least 10 days before the end of the month — so no later than 21 March. If they tried making appointments after 21 March and could not receive their first dose until sometime after 31 March, this would not count toward negative resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 137, + "numforecasts": 138, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -38896,22 +39174,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/", @@ -38999,7 +39261,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to [earthquaketrack.com](http://earthquaketrack.com) the largest quake this past year: 6.6 in Néa Anatolí, Crete, Greece\nThe area is geologically active an had an estimated 8-8.5 earthquake in 365 A.D.\nThe 365 Crete earthquake occurred at about sunrise on 21 July 365 in the Eastern Mediterranean, with an assumed epicenter near Crete Geologists today estimate the undersea earthquake to have been a magnitude 8.0 or higher. It caused widespread destruction in central and southern Greece, northern Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, Sicily, and Spain. On Crete, nearly all towns were destroyed.\nThe Crete earthquake was followed by a tsunami which devastated the southern and eastern coasts of the Mediterranean, particularly Libya, Alexandria and the Nile Delta, killing thousands and hurling ships 3 km (1.9 mi) inland.\nWill there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?\nThis question will resolve if by Dec. 31 2021 an earthquake measuring 7.0 or larger occurring either underneath or within 80 Kilometres from sea shores of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, being defined as a line running from Southern Sicily thru Malta to Misrata Libya. This will include the whole Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea, and Leviathan Sea.\nEarthquake must be verified by either: European-Mediterranean Seismological Center Earthquake Track\n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", @@ -39058,7 +39320,7 @@ } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?\nThis question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 159, + "numforecasts": 160, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -39091,17 +39353,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question.\nWill the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?\nResolves to \"yes\" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to \"no\" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 110, + "numforecasts": 130, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T10:00:00Z", @@ -39240,22 +39502,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:37:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-19T22:37:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6528/few-shot-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", @@ -39978,7 +40224,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n", - "numforecasts": 1253, + "numforecasts": 1254, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-08T00:00:00Z", @@ -40096,7 +40342,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n", - "numforecasts": 184, + "numforecasts": 197, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -40235,7 +40481,7 @@ } ], "description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "numforecasts": 255, + "numforecasts": 256, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z", @@ -40547,7 +40793,7 @@ } ], "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n", - "numforecasts": 142, + "numforecasts": 144, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", @@ -40622,7 +40868,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.\nBy March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.\nBy 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?\nThe price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -40649,7 +40895,7 @@ } ], "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n", - "numforecasts": 204, + "numforecasts": 206, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", @@ -40729,33 +40975,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 254, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/", @@ -40880,33 +41099,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 624, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/", @@ -40934,6 +41126,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 631, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/", @@ -41101,7 +41320,7 @@ } ], "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", @@ -41251,7 +41470,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does. \nEstimates in the literature (see appendix A on p. 84 of [this paper](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) for a compilation) range from to FLOPS following a variety of methodologies. (For a comparison, the Landauer limit at 20 C is about bit erasures per second. However, the author has no clear idea how to convert between bit erasures and FLOPS.)\nThis huge range will probably eventually be narrowed down to within an order-of-magnitude or two, and we ask for that number here. Assume that by 2075 there is either (a) a full software emulation of a human brain that can duplicate the basic functionality of a typical adult human of average intelligence; or (b) there is an AI system that can pass a full \"strong\" Turing test (i.e. the interview is long, adversarial, and include sensory data); or (c) there is a computer system that attains \"human intelligence parity\" by the definition set forth in [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). In each case (a,b,c) the number will be evaluated on a state-of-the-art system five years after the first demonstration of a system satisfying the criterion.\nWhat will the computation in FLOPS be of this machine system, if running at a speed comparable to that of human mental processing? \nThe point of this question is not really as a prediction, but more as a gathering place for estimates.\nFine print: we'll settle for a published estimate accurate to within a factor of 5. The speeds of the systems can be matched up by requiring that similar delays occur between queries and responses in the system as compared to humans, or scaling for this equivalency. Resolves as ambiguous if (a), (b) or (c) don't occur by 2075.\n(edited 2020-09-13 to fix eval date as 5 years after such a system appears.)\n", - "numforecasts": 205, + "numforecasts": 206, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-13T07:00:00Z", @@ -41406,22 +41625,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 63, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:51:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:51:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/", @@ -41439,7 +41642,7 @@ } ], "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise:\n1-- \nA military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n", - "numforecasts": 592, + "numforecasts": 595, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", @@ -41449,6 +41652,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 63, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:51:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:51:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/", @@ -41600,7 +41819,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, and resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Due to community spread of the virus throughout the United States and other countries, there has been interest in developing a vaccine to hopefully stop the spread of the virus.\nIn November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more than 90% effective according to early trial data. Both vaccines require two doses per person. Government officials expect there to be 40 million doses from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine available in 2020 if both vaccines are approved, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. [(Washington Post)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/) By the end of 2021, Pfizer estimates it will be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, and Moderna estimates it will be able to produce 1 billion doses. [(The Guardian)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show)\nBased on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4.\nWhen will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-12T08:00:00Z", @@ -41745,7 +41964,7 @@ } ], "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? \nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 698, + "numforecasts": 699, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z", @@ -42304,7 +42523,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.\nHow many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?\nSee also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)\n", - "numforecasts": 202, + "numforecasts": 205, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-07-20T22:00:00Z", @@ -42395,7 +42614,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n", - "numforecasts": 503, + "numforecasts": 505, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z", @@ -42916,7 +43135,7 @@ } ], "description": "The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.\nRecently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783).\nWill life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?\nThe question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard \"extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence\" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt.\nThe question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus is found or the evidence remains inconclusive.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) \n---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) \n---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) \n", - "numforecasts": 219, + "numforecasts": 221, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", @@ -43275,6 +43494,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", + "numforecasts": 566, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/", @@ -43302,33 +43548,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", - "numforecasts": 565, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Who will win the 'worm wars'?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/", @@ -43667,6 +43886,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.\nThe [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months:\n1-- \nThe race to build larger language models continues and we see the first 10 trillion parameter model.\n2-- \nAttention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results.\n3-- \nA major corporate AI lab shuts down as its parent company changes strategy.\n4-- \nIn response to US DoD activity and investment in US based military AI startups, a wave of Chinese and European defense-focused AI startups collectively raise over $100M in the next 12 months.\n5-- \nOne of the leading AI-first drug discovery startups (e.g. Recursion, Exscientia) either IPOs or is acquired for over $1B.\n6-- \nDeepMind makes a major breakthrough in structural biology and drug discovery beyond AlphaFold. \n7-- \nFacebook makes a major breakthrough in augmented and virtual reality with 3D computer vision. \n8-- \nNVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm.\nHow many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?\nOnly prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.\nResolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.\nThe question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published.\n", + "numforecasts": 65, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-10T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-12-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T21:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you \"wake up\"?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/", @@ -43684,7 +43919,7 @@ } ], "description": "Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question.\nThe basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html).)\nThe ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservation-prize-be-awarded-by-the-brain-preservation-foundation/) regarding the \"large brain preservation prize\" discusses some of the advances. Many questions remain however, including: Is it even in principle possible to reconstruct an individual human mind out of a frozen brain? If so, how much accuracy in preservation is necessary? Do current techniques have the requisite accuracy? How advanced will the reconstruction technology be, and when would/might that exist? etc., etc.\nLet's assume that an individual as of the reading of the question signs up with one of the top three (by number of currently preserved individuals). \nWhat is the probability that the individual will \"wake up\" in essentially the same or better form than they died? \nWe'll consider success if the revived individual has full mental faculties, an essentially complete set of memories of their former life, and a personality that is at least difficult for them or others to discern from the original. We'll assume for these purposes that the individual's last heartbeat (at least for some time) occurs in a hospital or similar setting where the body can be immediately cooled and moved (if not there already) to a facility for cryonic preservation, and that the individual dies with a relatively healthy brain intact.\nNote: like a few other Metaculus questions, we don't expect this to actually resolve. Rather it is a \"headline\" question that could fold in the results of others. Suggestions for shorter-term, resolvable questions that would bear upon the probabilities of this one are invited in the comments below.\n", - "numforecasts": 557, + "numforecasts": 558, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-03-29T20:50:00Z", @@ -43694,22 +43929,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.\nThe [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months:\n1-- \nThe race to build larger language models continues and we see the first 10 trillion parameter model.\n2-- \nAttention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results.\n3-- \nA major corporate AI lab shuts down as its parent company changes strategy.\n4-- \nIn response to US DoD activity and investment in US based military AI startups, a wave of Chinese and European defense-focused AI startups collectively raise over $100M in the next 12 months.\n5-- \nOne of the leading AI-first drug discovery startups (e.g. Recursion, Exscientia) either IPOs or is acquired for over $1B.\n6-- \nDeepMind makes a major breakthrough in structural biology and drug discovery beyond AlphaFold. \n7-- \nFacebook makes a major breakthrough in augmented and virtual reality with 3D computer vision. \n8-- \nNVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm.\nHow many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?\nOnly prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.\nResolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.\nThe question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-12-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T21:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will Croatia adopt the euro?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/", @@ -44263,7 +44482,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 129, + "numforecasts": 131, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", @@ -44719,7 +44938,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n", - "numforecasts": 196, + "numforecasts": 198, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -44945,7 +45164,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive. \nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100. \nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? \nOne issue is that AGI is rather difficult to precisely define. A separate question addresses a similar issue by asking about [human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) in a particular adversarial test. Here we'd like a definition that connects more closely with established benchmarks for various capabilities; it also sets an arguably somewhat lower bar.\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n", - "numforecasts": 471, + "numforecasts": 473, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-18T08:00:00Z", @@ -45031,7 +45250,7 @@ } ], "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n", - "numforecasts": 199, + "numforecasts": 200, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z", @@ -45273,7 +45492,7 @@ } ], "description": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\nCoins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\nAlthough it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?\n", - "numforecasts": 372, + "numforecasts": 373, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", @@ -46421,33 +46640,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On October 29, 2020, CNBC host Scott Wapner [tweeted](https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC):\nHearing Tim Cook tell @CNBCJosh that the virus makes it too hard to give guidance highlights a big risk for the economy — that while we won’t lock down again, businesses could decide to shut their stores for periods rather than risk their customers or employees getting sick.\nLet's focus on Apple, since the company presumably has the resources and wherewithal to be able to implement best practice preventive measures, and understanding the precautions that they choose to implement may help shed light on the likely decisions of similar retail businesses.\nThe \"always open\" flagship [5th Ave Apple Store](https://www.apple.com/retail/fifthavenue/) location in New York City is providing face masks to shoppers, enforcing social distancing, doing temperature checks, and performing continuous cleaning, according to the store's website. But will these measures be enough to prevent a significant store closure during the 2020/2021 winter season?\nWill Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?\nResolution will be determined according to announcements made by Apple regarding opening and closing dates of their 5th Ave location.\n", - "numforecasts": 247, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-02T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-15T20:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/", @@ -46641,6 +46833,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "2˚C global warming by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.87, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\nTherefore, it is asked: \nWill there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880.\n(Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.)\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 1.8 ˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\nThe last possible set of 5 years to satisfy the requirement would be 2095-2099, so the last possible resolution date would be around mid-2100, in order to make sure that there are no uncertainties regarding the 2099 climate data.\n", + "numforecasts": 364, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-06-14T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/", @@ -46657,33 +46876,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "2˚C global warming by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.10999999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\nTherefore, it is asked: \nWill there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880.\n(Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.)\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 1.8 ˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\nThe last possible set of 5 years to satisfy the requirement would be 2095-2099, so the last possible resolution date would be around mid-2100, in order to make sure that there are no uncertainties regarding the 2099 climate data.\n", - "numforecasts": 362, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-06-14T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/", @@ -46846,7 +47038,7 @@ } ], "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 5093, + "numforecasts": 5097, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z", @@ -47437,7 +47629,7 @@ } ], "description": "Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.\nAs of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found what is in their air, not how much or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.\nSadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. \nSo far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life.\nWill we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?\nResolves positive for any exoplanet with >5% O2 found before 2030, negative if none are found.\n", - "numforecasts": 165, + "numforecasts": 166, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -48521,7 +48713,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why this might happen,\n--- \nA wealthy person or organization begins offering it as a way of attracting people to cryonics.\n--- \nThe government subsidizes cryonics as an alternative to the expensive [end-of-life care](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End-of-life_care) industry that currently exists. The world population is expected to be [much older](https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure) on average in the near future, which could put strain on governments to cut healthcare costs.\nCryonics proponents have historically [given arguments](https://alcor.org/Library/html/cryopreservingeveryone.html) for why they expect cryonics to scale extremely well, which if true, would imply that the cost of signing everyone in the United States up would be relatively cheap per capita.\nAfter 10 years of when the offer was first made, what percentage of Americans will be signed up to receive cryonics? For reference, there are [currently](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) only about 1500 members signed up with Alcor, one of the largest cryonics organizations, which represents less than 0.00046% of the US population. \nFor the offering to count, there must be some sort of public message declaring the offer, and eligibility must be available to at least one hundred million people. The date of offering is the first date where a United States citizen receives a cryonics contract for free on behalf of an organization or person who is widely considered to be offering it as a gift to the general public (at least in the United States), rather than to some specific individuals. Here, a cryonics contract is defined as any legally binding commitment, by an organization plausibly capable of fulfilling it, to provide for cryopreservation of (at least) a person's brain provided that doing so is practically feasible.\nIf it is the case that the government provides the service as a routine procedure, and as such there is no literal contract to sign, the number of people said to be \"signed up\" in this case are the number of people the US Government promises to cryopreserve. As an example, if the US Government promised to preserve all United States citizens, then the proportion of citizens as a percentage of the total population of the United States (according to the latest Census projection) is the percentage of people in America \"signed up for cryonics.\"\nIf cryonics is not offered for free to the general public by any organization or person before 2100, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-27T22:00:00Z", @@ -49333,7 +49525,7 @@ } ], "description": "Every astrobiologist and their brother is excited about the possibility of life on Jupiter's moon, Europa. And for good reason. It's likely got more liquid water than our fair Earth does. Thanks to Jupiter's gravitation tugging, there's almost certainly lots of volcanic activities beneath those seas to create an environment similar to the one we suspect [gave rise to life](https://www.whoi.edu/news-release/study-tests-theory-that-life-originated-at-deep-sea-vents) on this planet.\nIn addition to fantasizing extensively about [discovering life on Europa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NlvndXpmEA), our species has been busy preparing recon missions to sample [tasty plumes](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/) of water+organics fulminating off the surface. Maybe we'll get lucky and find convincing proof of biological activity on Europa with the [Clipper mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/).\nOr maybe not.\nEuropa is far away. It's bathed in horrific radiation. It's cold. Its environment would be mean to our drills. And there might not even be life there.\nMeanwhile, other (slightly) more hospitable places – Mars, hint, hint – may also house life. Or maybe boosters of Titan or Enceladus will convince us to go to those worlds first, and we'll find the first alien life there. Or maybe life won't be found at all in the solar system. Or maybe SETI will come through. Or our new mega powerful telescopes will reveal life on extra solar worlds. Or maybe [aliens have already found us](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUHk9FLZMf4)!\nWhat's your take? Question resolves positive if humanity by 2045 discovers convincing evidence of life on Europa and does so before detecting extra terrestrial life anywhere else in the universe. Resolves negative if by 2045 extraterrestrial life is found convincingly elsewhere prior to on Europa. Resolves ambiguous if no extraterrestrial life is found by 2045. (Note: extraterrestrial life must be (a) living currently and (b) highly unlikely to be a result of contamination by Earth spacecraft. This leaves open the possibility of life transported from Earth via other non-human-engineered means.)\n", - "numforecasts": 352, + "numforecasts": 353, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -49885,6 +50077,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 234, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/", @@ -49912,33 +50131,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 233, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/", @@ -50315,22 +50507,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n", - "numforecasts": 229, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/", @@ -50358,6 +50534,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n", + "numforecasts": 230, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/", @@ -50744,22 +50936,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the VIX index climb above 50?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.\nIt represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.\nBetween 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).\nThe question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.\nCompanion question:\n---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) \n", - "numforecasts": 102, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/", @@ -50837,12 +51013,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51270,22 +51446,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2130-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/", @@ -51303,7 +51463,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the quest for \"strong\" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is \"brain emulation,\" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. \nIn an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such \"Ems\" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)\nTo gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of \"Ems\" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:\nWill the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains? \nResolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.\n(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)\n", - "numforecasts": 427, + "numforecasts": 428, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-11-06T21:09:16Z", @@ -51313,6 +51473,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 71, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2130-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/", @@ -51544,7 +51720,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n", - "numforecasts": 176, + "numforecasts": 178, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-08T07:00:00Z", @@ -51780,7 +51956,7 @@ } ], "description": "Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as \"Satoshi Nakamoto\", the maverick who developed bitcoin.\nHaven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator):\nON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. \nWill we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.\nQuestion resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??)\n", - "numforecasts": 471, + "numforecasts": 473, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -51856,17 +52032,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -51920,7 +52096,7 @@ } ], "description": "China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.\nFrom the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.\nChina has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)). Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).\nWill China's GDP exceed United States GDP in at least 1 year by 2040?\nThis question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).\nFor the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).\nPreviously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:\nThis question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices. \n", - "numforecasts": 434, + "numforecasts": 435, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z", @@ -52392,22 +52568,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6425/the-future-of-wallstreetbets/", @@ -52435,6 +52595,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 33, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/", @@ -52844,17 +53020,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.\n[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):\nAccording to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.\nThe question is: can we do this?\nKurzgesagt (a.k.a. \"in a nutshell\") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)\nHere are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:\n---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator. \n---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build. \n---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down. \n---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process. \n---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. \nWhat do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?\nQuestion resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.\n", - "numforecasts": 366, + "numforecasts": 368, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -52864,33 +53040,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 68, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/", @@ -52923,6 +53072,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 69, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/", @@ -53020,7 +53196,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.\nQuestion: When will the United States admit a new state?\nThis question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A \"new state\" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019.\nIt resolves as \"> Dec 31, 2050\" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.\n", - "numforecasts": 161, + "numforecasts": 162, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -53256,7 +53432,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n", - "numforecasts": 124, + "numforecasts": 125, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", @@ -53288,7 +53464,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n---There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n---Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \n---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. \n", - "numforecasts": 229, + "numforecasts": 230, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", @@ -53869,17 +54045,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n", - "numforecasts": 277, + "numforecasts": 280, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", @@ -54453,33 +54629,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n", - "numforecasts": 62, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-07T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/", @@ -55045,6 +55194,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", + "numforecasts": 207, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/", @@ -55093,22 +55258,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 205, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/", @@ -55363,17 +55512,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", - "numforecasts": 1353, + "numforecasts": 1358, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z", @@ -55841,17 +55990,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nWill resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with > 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n", - "numforecasts": 515, + "numforecasts": 517, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z", @@ -56000,27 +56149,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3354372702392304758606315718408588", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6645627297607695241393684281591412", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "1012", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021", @@ -56029,40 +56157,19 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9415230824472975309831197222021579", + "probability": "0.9384848009899550913372178405384028", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.05847691755270246901688027779784206", + "probability": "0.06151519901004490866278215946159717", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1345", + "numforecasts": "1388", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Bezos", - "probability": "0.7547543190214724443952393949548145", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Musk", - "probability": "0.2452456809785275556047606050451855", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "115", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Bezos, Musk" - }, { "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021", @@ -56071,38 +56178,50 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.6932702187929259413244521788771466", + "probability": "0.6597001613185609718884312218633493", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.3067297812070740586755478211228534", + "probability": "0.3402998386814390281115687781366507", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "663", + "numforecasts": "713", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", - "platform": "PolyMarket", + "address": "0xB0E171C4e2490b97b3CEbAF36FA4006318A09b25", "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" + ], + "options": [], + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8991914670166528160553490117706543", + "probability": "0.05326016474466037456012927193575621", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1008085329833471839446509882293457", + "probability": "0.9467398352553396254398707280642438", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "748", - "stars": 4, + "numforecasts": "615", + "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { @@ -56113,39 +56232,30 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3802427852259856186827241197058271", + "probability": "0.3908255482088409898840672506435951", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6197572147740143813172758802941729", + "probability": "0.6091744517911590101159327493564049", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "47", + "numforecasts": "49", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", + "address": "0x36BB6f09327d1A7D0930668345655d6A6e3c6b20", "description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01171843501725611250569006864795669", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9882815649827438874943099313520433", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" ], - "numforecasts": "166", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "options": [], + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?", @@ -56155,40 +56265,19 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.573155264328923542707764386955143", + "probability": "0.5737368105932406376129994481466282", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.426844735671076457292235613044857", + "probability": "0.4262631894067593623870005518533718", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "223", + "numforecasts": "226", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0503784603485542459425111089586649", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9496215396514457540574888910413351", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "550", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021", @@ -56197,16 +56286,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.7505369446596093438315284089122733", + "probability": "0.7048920190196941024466746714456119", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.2494630553403906561684715910877267", + "probability": "0.2951079809803058975533253285543881", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "264", + "numforecasts": "285", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -56218,19 +56307,40 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.009040131947168423474997820006593374", + "probability": "0.006455953036528953801406869581990141", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9909598680528315765250021799934066", + "probability": "0.9935440469634710461985931304180099", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "3967", + "numforecasts": "4019", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will daily atmospheric CO2 be above 418 ppm on March 22, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-daily-atmospheric-co-2-be-above-418-ppm-on-march-22-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether atmospheric CO2 will be above 418.00 parts per million (ppm) for the date of March 22, 2021 as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa observatory (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the daily average atmospheric CO2 is greater than 418.00 ppm for March 22, and “No” otherwise. This market will resolve when data is first available for the date of March 22, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.5728869441747132536662142894135398", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.4271130558252867463337857105864602", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "385", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021", @@ -56239,45 +56349,24 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Texas", - "probability": "0.3881022631673488932820187667696808", + "probability": "0.3850733832059928289333855292423997", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Florida", - "probability": "0.4698314285778599595421237751818497", + "probability": "0.4708359277137123046738459687628416", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "California", - "probability": "0.1420663082547911471758574580484695", + "probability": "0.1440906890802948663927685019947587", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "170", + "numforecasts": "177", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Texas, Florida, California" }, - { - "title": "Will daily atmospheric CO2 be above 418 ppm on March 22, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-daily-atmospheric-co-2-be-above-418-ppm-on-march-22-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether atmospheric CO2 will be above 418.00 parts per million (ppm) for the date of March 22, 2021 as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa observatory (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the daily average atmospheric CO2 is greater than 418.00 ppm for March 22, and “No” otherwise. This market will resolve when data is first available for the date of March 22, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4323090845591573631389997231358116", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5676909154408426368610002768641884", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "330", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021", @@ -56286,31 +56375,19 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1175208812305432541032320322504685", + "probability": "0.1260545953657379788087132718307385", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8824791187694567458967679677495315", + "probability": "0.8739454046342620211912867281692615", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "52", + "numforecasts": "54", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", - "address": "0x21ffd9416932673d3e97Dc96baB8c13f76DA0acD", - "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" - ], - "options": [], - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021", @@ -56319,73 +56396,123 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4590725161076313900835079793703723", + "probability": "0.4021495169091695517915726379179654", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5409274838923686099164920206296277", + "probability": "0.5978504830908304482084273620820346", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "5417", + "numforecasts": "5575", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0905541037097459017881388858657408", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9094458962902540982118611141342592", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "307", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1", - "address": "0xDF35eC97FEC070D7c565dF86C1bb9d2f15D6470A", - "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" - ], - "options": [], - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", + "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.06315336882214429189149113049678626", + "probability": "0.07374342770777088668847147075920592", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9368466311778557081085088695032137", + "probability": "0.9262565722922291133115285292407941", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "79", + "numforecasts": "66", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", + "title": "Will inflation be 0.5% or more from February to March?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-inflation-be-0-5-or-more-from-february-to-march", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", + "description": "This is a market on whether month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U) will be 0.5% or more from February to March, when the BLS releases month-to-month inflation information for the preceding month of March on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by exactly 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) or more from February 2021 to March 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by less than 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) from February 2021 to March 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS March 2021 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%, 0.1%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (i.e. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.4%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.5%, this market will resolve to “Yes”).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.7134059404626703822915834607534673", + "probability": "0.3160222901318408190249307241424349", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.2865940595373296177084165392465327", + "probability": "0.6839777098681591809750692758575651", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "38", + "numforecasts": "84", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 22, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-22-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 22, 2021 at 3:00 pm ET. \n\nAt 3:00pm ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,360 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 80", + "probability": "0.2665897626185363307436593869085798", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "80-95", + "probability": "0.3241551772079657716713385877842248", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "96-110", + "probability": "0.2787001495956022571114477355060016", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "111-125", + "probability": "0.05633445724337731070605949886438065", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "126-140", + "probability": "0.03542192933078144977703002435743993", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 140", + "probability": "0.03879852400373687999046476657937326", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "714", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 80, 80-95, 96-110, 111-125, 126-140, More than 140" + }, { "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021", @@ -56394,19 +56521,73 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2859018905251165145550449037792685", + "probability": "0.3698511805478125497466727860253377", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7140981094748834854449550962207315", + "probability": "0.6301488194521874502533272139746623", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "453", + "numforecasts": "484", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.06400527550147748729364637410106849", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9359947244985225127063536258989315", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "80", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", + "address": "0xa8B8c6cd59ECDe225D62185Cd3cAdE606e51b545", + "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" + ], + "options": [], + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a recall election is triggered and \"No\" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9124736877981445211454808638094631", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.08752631220185547885451913619053689", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "1138", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District", @@ -56414,12 +56595,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.6407766990291263, + "probability": 0.6732673267326733, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.3592233009708738, + "probability": 0.32673267326732675, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -56464,12 +56645,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5346534653465347, + "probability": 0.5392156862745099, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4653465346534653, + "probability": 0.46078431372549017, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -56484,12 +56665,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5841584158415841, + "probability": 0.5882352941176471, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4158415841584158, + "probability": 0.4117647058823529, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -56504,47 +56685,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "22 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "25", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26", - "probability": 0.308411214953271, + "probability": 0.3113207547169811, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27", - "probability": 0.6261682242990654, + "probability": 0.6226415094339622, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -56619,12 +56800,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -56639,12 +56820,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -56659,7 +56840,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -56679,12 +56860,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.8725490196078431, + "probability": 0.8811881188118812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.12745098039215685, + "probability": 0.1188118811881188, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -56699,88 +56880,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.47457627118644063, + "probability": 0.4999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.22033898305084743, + "probability": 0.21052631578947364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.06779661016949151, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.05932203389830508, + "probability": 0.06140350877192982, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.050847457627118633, + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Scott Stringer", + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.016949152542372878, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.016949152542372878, + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.016949152542372878, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.016949152542372878, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Max Rose", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Zach Iscol", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Catsimatidis", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Paperboy Prince", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Fernando Mateo", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Carlos Menchaca", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Loree Sutton", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dianne Morales", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Curtis Sliwa", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Max Rose", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Zach Iscol", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Catsimatidis", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Paperboy Prince", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Maya Wiley, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Curtis Sliwa, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Maya Wiley, Raymond McGuire, Scott Stringer, Shaun Donovan, Kathryn Garcia, Fernando Mateo, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Curtis Sliwa, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?", @@ -56849,12 +57030,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -56869,12 +57050,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -56969,12 +57150,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57009,22 +57190,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Terry McAuliffe", - "probability": 0.8910891089108911, + "probability": 0.8653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy", - "probability": 0.07920792079207921, + "probability": 0.10576923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jennifer McClellan", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Fairfax", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57039,12 +57220,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57059,52 +57240,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "23 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24 or 25", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26 or 27", - "probability": 0.11711711711711711, + "probability": 0.054545454545454536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28 or 29", - "probability": 0.3333333333333333, + "probability": 0.2909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or 31", - "probability": 0.27927927927927926, + "probability": 0.35454545454545455, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "32 or 33", - "probability": 0.17117117117117117, + "probability": 0.1727272727272727, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "34 or 35", - "probability": 0.05405405405405405, + "probability": 0.07272727272727272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "36 or 37", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.01818181818181818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "38 or 39", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40 or more", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57119,12 +57300,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08999999999999997, + "probability": 0.06999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57139,82 +57320,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.4545454545454544, + "probability": 0.4464285714285713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.27272727272727265, + "probability": 0.28571428571428564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.06363636363636363, + "probability": 0.062499999999999986, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.04545454545454544, + "probability": 0.04464285714285713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.036363636363636355, + "probability": 0.035714285714285705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.027272727272727264, + "probability": 0.026785714285714277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.018181818181818177, + "probability": 0.017857142857142853, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christian Lindner", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katja Kipping", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Gauland", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernd Riexinger", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57229,43 +57410,43 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kirk Cox", - "probability": 0.47368421052631576, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Glenn Youngkin", - "probability": 0.24561403508771928, + "probability": 0.5140186915887851, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Snyder", - "probability": 0.17543859649122806, + "probability": 0.22429906542056072, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Glenn Youngkin", + "probability": 0.14018691588785046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amanda Chase", - "probability": 0.07894736842105261, + "probability": 0.09345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neil Chatterjee", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmett Hanger", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bill Stanley", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Kirk Cox, Glenn Youngkin, Pete Snyder, Amanda Chase, Neil Chatterjee, Emmett Hanger, Bill Stanley" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Kirk Cox, Pete Snyder, Glenn Youngkin, Amanda Chase, Neil Chatterjee, Emmett Hanger, Bill Stanley" }, { "title": "Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?", @@ -57294,88 +57475,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.22807017543859642, + "probability": 0.2427184466019417, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.14912280701754382, + "probability": 0.15533980582524268, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.0964912280701754, + "probability": 0.09708737864077668, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.08771929824561402, + "probability": 0.09708737864077668, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.061403508771929814, + "probability": 0.058252427184466, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.061403508771929814, + "probability": 0.058252427184466, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.04385964912280701, + "probability": 0.03883495145631067, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.04385964912280701, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.035087719298245605, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.035087719298245605, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.035087719298245605, + "probability": 0.03883495145631067, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.035087719298245605, + "probability": 0.03883495145631067, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pompeo", + "probability": 0.029126213592233, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tucker Carlson", + "probability": 0.029126213592233, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", + "probability": 0.029126213592233, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.026315789473684202, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.026315789473684202, + "probability": 0.029126213592233, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.017543859649122803, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rick Scott", + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Larry Hogan", - "probability": 0.017543859649122803, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Mike Pompeo, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Josh Hawley, Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Mitt Romney, Larry Hogan" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Mike Pompeo, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Mitt Romney, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?", @@ -57394,7 +57575,7 @@ }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -57429,37 +57610,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "33 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "34 or 35", - "probability": 0.9423076923076923, + "probability": 0.9428571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "36 or 37", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "38 or 39", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40 or 41", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42 or 43", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "44 or more", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57474,43 +57655,43 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Michelle Wu", - "probability": 0.4857142857142857, + "probability": 0.48598130841121495, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Janey", - "probability": 0.24761904761904763, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Barros", - "probability": 0.0857142857142857, + "probability": 0.24299065420560748, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Campbell", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, + "probability": 0.08411214953271028, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Barros", + "probability": 0.08411214953271028, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Santiago", - "probability": 0.06666666666666667, + "probability": 0.06542056074766356, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Essaibi-George", - "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "probability": 0.02803738317757009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marty Walsh", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Michelle Wu, Kim Janey, John Barros, Andrea Campbell, Jon Santiago, A. Essaibi-George, Marty Walsh" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Michelle Wu, Kim Janey, Andrea Campbell, John Barros, Jon Santiago, A. Essaibi-George, Marty Walsh" }, { "title": "Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?", @@ -57619,12 +57800,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57659,67 +57840,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jane Timken", - "probability": 0.3619047619047619, + "probability": 0.3363636363636363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "J. D. Vance", - "probability": 0.27619047619047615, + "probability": 0.3181818181818181, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.19999999999999998, + "probability": 0.1909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Stivers", - "probability": 0.03809523809523809, + "probability": 0.03636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "probability": 0.027272727272727268, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Turner", - "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "probability": 0.027272727272727268, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Frank LaRose", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Wenstrup", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57754,12 +57935,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57774,12 +57955,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57794,12 +57975,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57884,12 +58065,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Troy Carter", - "probability": 0.5478260869565217, + "probability": 0.5391304347826086, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Karen Peterson", - "probability": 0.33043478260869563, + "probability": 0.3391304347826087, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -57969,58 +58150,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lenín Moreno", - "probability": 0.8846153846153846, + "probability": 0.8773584905660378, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Ortega", - "probability": 0.038461538461538464, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Francisco Sagasti", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sebastián Piñera", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Iván Duque", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "A. M. López Obrador", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alberto Fernández", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Luis Arce", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nicolás Maduro", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Francisco Sagasti", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sebastián Piñera", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Iván Duque", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "A. M. López Obrador", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alberto Fernández", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Luis Arce", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lenín Moreno, Daniel Ortega, Jair Bolsonaro, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce, Nicolás Maduro" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lenín Moreno, Daniel Ortega, Nicolás Maduro, Jair Bolsonaro, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?", @@ -58029,12 +58210,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5294117647058824, + "probability": 0.5346534653465347, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.47058823529411764, + "probability": 0.4653465346534653, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58049,52 +58230,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Hassan Rouhani", - "probability": 0.5471698113207547, + "probability": 0.5495495495495495, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.2169811320754717, + "probability": 0.2252252252252252, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.11320754716981131, + "probability": 0.1081081081081081, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "probability": 0.04504504504504504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Jong-un", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Moon Jae-in", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joko Widodo", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58109,12 +58290,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08999999999999997, + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58129,7 +58310,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58149,52 +58330,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.30275229357798167, + "probability": 0.40566037735849053, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.5963302752293578, + "probability": 0.4811320754716981, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.03669724770642201, + "probability": 0.04716981132075472, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58209,47 +58390,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tali Weinstein", - "probability": 0.3628318584070796, + "probability": 0.3611111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alvin Bragg", - "probability": 0.327433628318584, + "probability": 0.324074074074074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tahanie Aboushi", - "probability": 0.15044247787610618, + "probability": 0.1574074074074074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eliza Orlins", - "probability": 0.07964601769911503, + "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Quart", - "probability": 0.035398230088495575, + "probability": 0.037037037037037035, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lucy Lang", - "probability": 0.017699115044247787, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyrus Vance", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Diana Florence", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Crotty", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58269,27 +58450,22 @@ }, { "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Abiy Ahmed", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Abiy Ahmed", + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58298,12 +58474,17 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", - "probability": 0.02, + "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -58315,7 +58496,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Abiy Ahmed, Uhuru Kenyatta, Félix Tshisekedi, Nana Akufo-Addo, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Cyril Ramaphosa, Paul Kagame" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Félix Tshisekedi, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Nana Akufo-Addo, Cyril Ramaphosa, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Paul Kagame" }, { "title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?", @@ -58324,12 +58505,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58344,62 +58525,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "12 or fewer", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "13", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "15", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "17", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "19", - "probability": 0.049019607843137254, + "probability": 0.06542056074766356, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20", - "probability": 0.6274509803921569, + "probability": 0.5887850467289719, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21", - "probability": 0.23529411764705882, + "probability": 0.26168224299065423, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "22", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23 or more", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58414,51 +58595,36 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jonathan Kanter", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Renata Hesse", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Sallet", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Terrell McSweeny", + "name": "Renata Hesse", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", - "probability": 0.08, + "name": "Terrell McSweeny", + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Jon Leibowitz", + "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Juan Arteaga", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Susan Davies", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dave Gelfand", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steven Sunshine", + "name": "Jon Leibowitz", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -58468,7 +58634,22 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Juan Arteaga", + "name": "Susan Davies", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dave Gelfand", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Steven Sunshine", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -58485,7 +58666,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Jon Sallet, Terrell McSweeny, Rebecca Slaughter, Jon Leibowitz, Susan Davies, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Deborah Feinstein, Juan Arteaga, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jonathan Kanter, Jon Sallet, Renata Hesse, Terrell McSweeny, Rebecca Slaughter, Juan Arteaga, Jon Leibowitz, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?", @@ -58499,7 +58680,7 @@ }, { "name": "Guillermo Lasso", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58579,58 +58760,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.4077669902912621, + "probability": 0.4215686274509804, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.1359223300970874, + "probability": 0.12745098039215685, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Trudeau", - "probability": 0.08737864077669902, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.07766990291262135, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.07766990291262135, + "probability": 0.0784313725490196, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.07766990291262135, + "probability": 0.0784313725490196, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Boris Johnson", + "probability": 0.06862745098039216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.04854368932038835, + "probability": 0.049019607843137254, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.038834951456310676, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.029126213592233007, + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are \"Xi\" and \"Suga\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro, Cyril Ramaphosa, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Jair Bolsonaro, Boris Johnson, Cyril Ramaphosa, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?", @@ -58644,7 +58825,7 @@ }, { "name": "Amy Acton", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58674,38 +58855,38 @@ "options": [ { "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.6568627450980392, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.12745098039215685, + "probability": 0.6380952380952382, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conor Lamb", - "probability": 0.11764705882352941, + "probability": 0.15238095238095237, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", + "probability": 0.12380952380952381, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Madeleine Dean", - "probability": 0.06862745098039216, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Kenney", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.06666666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Sestak", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Kenney", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "John Fetterman, Malcolm Kenyatta, Conor Lamb, Madeleine Dean, Jim Kenney, Joe Sestak" + "optionsstringforsearch": "John Fetterman, Conor Lamb, Malcolm Kenyatta, Madeleine Dean, Joe Sestak, Jim Kenney" }, { "title": "How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?", @@ -58714,52 +58895,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "62 or fewer", - "probability": 0.13333333333333333, + "probability": 0.16346153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 or 64", - "probability": 0.14285714285714285, + "probability": 0.16346153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 or 66", - "probability": 0.1714285714285714, + "probability": 0.19230769230769226, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "67 or 68", - "probability": 0.19047619047619047, + "probability": 0.16346153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 or 70", - "probability": 0.19999999999999998, + "probability": 0.18269230769230765, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 or 72", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.09615384615384613, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or 74", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.009615384615384612, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 or 76", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384612, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 or 78", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384612, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "79 or more", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384612, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58779,22 +58960,22 @@ }, { "name": "Ryan Costello", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Everett Stern", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlie Dent", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58809,12 +58990,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.5490196078431373, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.45098039215686275, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58829,12 +59010,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6633663366336634, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.33663366336633666, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58869,68 +59050,73 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shalanda Young", - "probability": 0.48598130841121484, + "probability": 0.4678899082568806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nani Coloretti", - "probability": 0.18691588785046725, + "probability": 0.17431192660550454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann O'Leary", - "probability": 0.06542056074766354, + "probability": 0.05504587155963301, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sarah Bianchi", - "probability": 0.05607476635514017, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chris Lu", - "probability": 0.05607476635514017, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Martha Coven", - "probability": 0.046728971962616814, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sonal Shah", - "probability": 0.028037383177570086, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gene Sperling", - "probability": 0.018691588785046724, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Heather Boushey", - "probability": 0.018691588785046724, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Jones", - "probability": 0.018691588785046724, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Neera Tanden", - "probability": 0.009345794392523362, + "probability": 0.05504587155963301, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jared Bernstein", - "probability": 0.009345794392523362, + "probability": 0.05504587155963301, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Lu", + "probability": 0.05504587155963301, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Thea Lee", + "probability": 0.04587155963302751, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Heather Boushey", + "probability": 0.027522935779816505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Martha Coven", + "probability": 0.018348623853211003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sonal Shah", + "probability": 0.018348623853211003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gene Sperling", + "probability": 0.009174311926605502, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Neera Tanden", + "probability": 0.009174311926605502, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Jones", + "probability": 0.009174311926605502, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Ann O'Leary, Sarah Bianchi, Chris Lu, Martha Coven, Sonal Shah, Gene Sperling, Heather Boushey, John Jones, Neera Tanden, Jared Bernstein" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Ann O'Leary, Sarah Bianchi, Jared Bernstein, Chris Lu, Thea Lee, Heather Boushey, Martha Coven, Sonal Shah, Gene Sperling, Neera Tanden, John Jones" }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?", @@ -58939,12 +59125,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58959,52 +59145,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 1M", - "probability": 0.1782178217821782, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1M to 1.05M", - "probability": 0.25742574257425743, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.05M to 1.1M", - "probability": 0.2079207920792079, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.1M to 1.15M", - "probability": 0.12871287128712872, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.15M to 1.2M", - "probability": 0.0891089108910891, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.2M to 1.25M", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.25M to 1.3M", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.3M to 1.35M", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.35M to 1.4M", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.4M or more", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59019,108 +59205,48 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Rob Bonta", - "probability": 0.4587155963302752, + "probability": 0.4854368932038835, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Darrell Steinberg", - "probability": 0.25688073394495414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Adam Schiff", - "probability": 0.1834862385321101, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Goodwin Liu", - "probability": 0.06422018348623854, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Xavier Becerra", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.23300970873786406, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rick Chavez Zbur", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.1359223300970874, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Adam Schiff", + "probability": 0.08737864077669902, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Goodwin Liu", + "probability": 0.029126213592233007, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Xavier Becerra", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeff Rosen", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Diana Becton", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.\nShould no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Rob Bonta, Darrell Steinberg, Adam Schiff, Goodwin Liu, Xavier Becerra, Rick Chavez Zbur, Jeff Rosen, Diana Becton" - }, - { - "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7140/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-William-Burns-as-CIA-Director-by-3-31", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "options": [ - { - "name": "70 or fewer", - "probability": 0.14150943396226415, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.11320754716981131, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.20754716981132074, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "92 to 94", - "probability": 0.23584905660377356, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "95 or more", - "probability": 0.1792452830188679, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of William Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Burns be confirmed to position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"70 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"95 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "70 or fewer, 71 to 73, 74 to 76, 77 to 79, 80 to 82, 83 to 85, 86 to 88, 89 to 91, 92 to 94, 95 or more" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Rob Bonta, Darrell Steinberg, Rick Chavez Zbur, Adam Schiff, Goodwin Liu, Xavier Becerra, Jeff Rosen, Diana Becton" }, { "title": "Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?", @@ -59169,12 +59295,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.5999999999999999, + "probability": 0.6199999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrej Babiš", - "probability": 0.12999999999999998, + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59183,12 +59309,12 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", - "probability": 0.039999999999999994, + "name": "Mark Rutte", + "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Mark Rutte", + "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", "probability": 0.039999999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -59220,7 +59346,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Mark Rutte, Boris Johnson, Pedro Sánchez, Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán, Emmanuel Macron" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Mario Draghi, Mark Rutte, Alexander Lukashenko, Boris Johnson, Pedro Sánchez, Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán, Emmanuel Macron" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?", @@ -59229,17 +59355,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yonhy Lescano", - "probability": 0.58, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George Forsyth", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59248,12 +59374,12 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Hernando de Soto", - "probability": 0.01, + "name": "Verónika Mendoza", + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Verónika Mendoza", + "name": "Hernando de Soto", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -59290,7 +59416,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Rafael López Aliaga, George Forsyth, Keiko Fujimori, Hernando de Soto, Verónika Mendoza, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, George Forsyth, Rafael López Aliaga, Keiko Fujimori, Verónika Mendoza, Hernando de Soto, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?", @@ -59299,47 +59425,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Susan Wright", - "probability": 0.6944444444444444, + "probability": 0.6822429906542056, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jana Sanchez", - "probability": 0.16666666666666666, + "probability": 0.1588785046728972, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jake Ellzey", - "probability": 0.046296296296296294, + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Harrison", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.037383177570093455, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Rodimer", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.037383177570093455, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katrina Pierson", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sery Kim", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lydia Bean", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shawn Lassiter", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59354,17 +59480,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lorena González", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Colleen Echohawk", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bruce Harrell", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59373,19 +59499,19 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Jenny Durkan", - "probability": 0.01, + "name": "Andrew Grant Houston", + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Andrew Grant Houston", + "name": "Jenny Durkan", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lorena González, Colleen Echohawk, Bruce Harrell, Lance Randall, Jenny Durkan, Andrew Grant Houston" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lorena González, Colleen Echohawk, Bruce Harrell, Lance Randall, Andrew Grant Houston, Jenny Durkan" }, { "title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?", @@ -59394,7 +59520,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nicholas Burns", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.66, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Shambaugh", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59402,18 +59538,8 @@ "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Claire McCaskill", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David Shambaugh", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -59425,7 +59551,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicholas Burns, Rahm Emanuel, Dan Kritenbrink, Claire McCaskill, David Shambaugh, Charlene Barshefsky" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicholas Burns, David Shambaugh, Dan Kritenbrink, Rahm Emanuel, Claire McCaskill, Charlene Barshefsky" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?", @@ -59434,17 +59560,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Herschel Walker", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chris Carr", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59509,12 +59635,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59529,12 +59655,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59549,53 +59675,53 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Eric Schmitt", - "probability": 0.3786407766990291, + "probability": 0.3644859813084112, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Greitens", - "probability": 0.22330097087378642, + "probability": 0.25233644859813087, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jason Smith", - "probability": 0.1262135922330097, + "probability": 0.12149532710280374, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann Wagner", - "probability": 0.11650485436893203, + "probability": 0.11214953271028036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Billy Long", - "probability": 0.0970873786407767, + "probability": 0.09345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Kehoe", - "probability": 0.029126213592233007, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Roy Blunt", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jay Ashcroft", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Roy Blunt", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carl Edwards", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Schmitt, Eric Greitens, Jason Smith, Ann Wagner, Billy Long, Mike Kehoe, Roy Blunt, Jay Ashcroft, Carl Edwards" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Schmitt, Eric Greitens, Jason Smith, Ann Wagner, Billy Long, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Roy Blunt, Carl Edwards" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?", @@ -59619,7 +59745,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ted Budd", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59649,12 +59775,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59669,12 +59795,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59689,37 +59815,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "38 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "39", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "41", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42", - "probability": 0.9339622641509433, + "probability": 0.9428571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "43", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "44 or more", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59734,52 +59860,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "3 votes", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or 5 votes", - "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7 votes", - "probability": 0.09803921568627451, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9 votes", - "probability": 0.11764705882352941, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11 votes", - "probability": 0.10784313725490197, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12 or 13 votes", - "probability": 0.09803921568627451, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14 or 15 votes", - "probability": 0.09803921568627451, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16 or 17 votes", - "probability": 0.08823529411764705, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18 or 19 votes", - "probability": 0.0784313725490196, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20 or more", - "probability": 0.27450980392156865, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59794,12 +59920,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59814,12 +59940,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59834,12 +59960,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tishaura Jones", - "probability": 0.8543689320388349, + "probability": 0.8476190476190476, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cara Spencer", - "probability": 0.14563106796116504, + "probability": 0.15238095238095237, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59854,28 +59980,28 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Dem. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.3451327433628319, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "R House, D Senate", - "probability": 0.3008849557522124, + "probability": 0.34615384615384615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rep. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.24778761061946908, + "probability": 0.2980769230769231, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "R House, D Senate", + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "D House, R Senate", - "probability": 0.10619469026548674, + "probability": 0.10576923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.\nThe 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat. \nControl of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., \"delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.\nShould the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.\nDetermination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Dem. House & Senate, R House, D Senate, Rep. House & Senate, D House, R Senate" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Dem. House & Senate, Rep. House & Senate, R House, D Senate, D House, R Senate" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", @@ -59884,17 +60010,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Letitia James", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathy Hochul", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Cuomo", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59908,17 +60034,12 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Thomas DiNapoli", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bill de Blasio", + "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", + "name": "Thomas DiNapoli", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -59927,6 +60048,11 @@ "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Bill de Blasio", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "probability": 0.01, @@ -59940,7 +60066,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Kathy Hochul, Andrew Cuomo, Alessandra Biaggi, Jumaane Williams, Thomas DiNapoli, Bill de Blasio, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Yang, Tom Suozzi" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Kathy Hochul, Andrew Cuomo, Alessandra Biaggi, Jumaane Williams, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Thomas DiNapoli, Hillary Clinton, Bill de Blasio, Andrew Yang, Tom Suozzi" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?", @@ -59949,12 +60075,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59969,12 +60095,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jeff Jackson", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cheri Beasley", + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Erica Smith", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59986,16 +60117,11 @@ "name": "Heath Shuler", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cheri Beasley", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jeff Jackson, Erica Smith, Richard Lee Watkins, Heath Shuler, Cheri Beasley" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jeff Jackson, Cheri Beasley, Erica Smith, Richard Lee Watkins, Heath Shuler" }, { "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?", @@ -60004,17 +60130,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.7623762376237624, + "probability": 0.8269230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Independent", - "probability": 0.15841584158415842, + "probability": 0.11538461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.07920792079207921, + "probability": 0.05769230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60022,66 +60148,6 @@ "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Independent, Democratic" }, - { - "title": "How many Yea votes in the House for the American Dream and Promise Act?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7177/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-for-the-American-Dream-and-Promise-Act", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "options": [ - { - "name": "216 or fewer", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "217 or 218", - "probability": 0.29411764705882354, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "219 or 220", - "probability": 0.24509803921568626, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "221 or 222", - "probability": 0.19607843137254902, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "223 or 224", - "probability": 0.12745098039215685, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "225 or 226", - "probability": 0.06862745098039216, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "227 or 228", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "229 or 230", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "231 or 232", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "233 or more", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. House of Representatives who, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 17, 2021, but before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of the American Dream and Promise Act.\nShould more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"216 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"233 or more\" shall resolve as Yes. \nOnce the results of the vote have been announced and without objection the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market.\nVotes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "216 or fewer, 217 or 218, 219 or 220, 221 or 222, 223 or 224, 225 or 226, 227 or 228, 229 or 230, 231 or 232, 233 or more" - }, { "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Shalanda Young as OMB Deputy Director by 4/15?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7178/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Shalanda-Young-as-OMB-Deputy-Director-by-4-15", @@ -60089,22 +60155,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "56 or fewer", - "probability": 0.3962264150943396, + "probability": 0.25471698113207547, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "57 to 59", - "probability": 0.16037735849056603, + "probability": 0.24528301886792453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60 to 62", - "probability": 0.16037735849056603, + "probability": 0.2169811320754717, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 to 65", - "probability": 0.10377358490566037, + "probability": 0.12264150943396226, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60114,7 +60180,7 @@ }, { "name": "69 to 71", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60129,7 +60195,7 @@ }, { "name": "78 to 80", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60149,78 +60215,78 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nina Turner", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bryan Flannery", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jeff Johnson", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tariq Shabazz", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Shirley Smith", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dennis Kucinich", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Barnes Jr.", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.6886792452830188, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shontel Brown", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.25471698113207547, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Barnes Jr.", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bryan Flannery", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeff Johnson", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tariq Shabazz", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Shirley Smith", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dennis Kucinich", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2021 OH-11 special election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Nina Turner, Bryan Flannery, Jeff Johnson, Tariq Shabazz, Shirley Smith, Dennis Kucinich, John Barnes Jr., Shontel Brown" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Nina Turner, Shontel Brown, John Barnes Jr., Bryan Flannery, Jeff Johnson, Tariq Shabazz, Shirley Smith, Dennis Kucinich" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nomination?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ - { - "name": "Ron Kind", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Alex Lasry", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Tom Nelson", - "probability": 0, + "name": "Ron Kind", + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sarah Godlewski", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Nelson", + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron Kind, Alex Lasry, Tom Nelson, Sarah Godlewski" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Alex Lasry, Ron Kind, Sarah Godlewski, Tom Nelson" }, { "title": "Will Dianne Feinstein still be a U.S. Senator on Sept. 1?", @@ -60229,12 +60295,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60242,6 +60308,251 @@ "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Mo Brooks", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Katie Britt", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Roy Moore", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeff Sessions", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lynda Blanchard", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Richard Shelby", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Merrill", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alabama Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Mo Brooks, Katie Britt, Roy Moore, Jeff Sessions, Lynda Blanchard, Richard Shelby, John Merrill" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2021 Pittsburgh Democratic Mayoral nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7183/Who-will-win-the-2021-Pittsburgh-Democratic-Mayoral-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Bill Peduto", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ed Gainey", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Democratic nomination for Mayor of Pittsburgh, PA.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Bill Peduto, Ed Gainey" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the margin in the first round of the LA-02 House special election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7184/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-first-round-of-the-LA-02-House-special-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Under 2%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "2% to 4%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "4% to 6%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "6% to 8%", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "8% to 10%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "10% to 12%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "12% to 14%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "14% to 16%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "16% to 18%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "18% or more", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for ballot-listed candidates officially reported, in the first round of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District. In the event of a tie between two or more candidates for the largest share of the popular vote, the contract \"Under 2%\" shall resolve to Yes.\nPercentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Under 2%, 2% to 4%, 4% to 6%, 6% to 8%, 8% to 10%, 10% to 12%, 12% to 14%, 14% to 16%, 16% to 18%, 18% or more" + }, + { + "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Vivek Murthy as Surgeon General by 4/30?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7185/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Vivek-Murthy-as-Surgeon-General-by-4-30", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "59 or fewer", + "probability": 0.23529411764705882, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "60 to 62", + "probability": 0.16666666666666669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "63 to 65", + "probability": 0.19607843137254902, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "66 to 68", + "probability": 0.20588235294117646, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "69 to 71", + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "72 to 74", + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "75 to 77", + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "78 to 80", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "81 to 83", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "84 or more", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Vivek Murthy to the position of Surgeon General, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Dr. Murthy to the position of Surgeon General commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Dr. Murthy be confirmed to position of Surgeon General in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"59 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"84 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Dr. Murthy to the position of Surgeon General be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "59 or fewer, 60 to 62, 63 to 65, 66 to 68, 69 to 71, 72 to 74, 75 to 77, 78 to 80, 81 to 83, 84 or more" + }, + { + "title": "How many Senate votes to confirm Rachel Levine as Asst. Sec. for Health by 4/30?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7186/How-many-Senate-votes-to-confirm-Rachel-Levine-as-Asst-Sec-for-Health-by-4-30", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "53 or fewer", + "probability": 0.5544554455445544, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "54 to 56", + "probability": 0.24752475247524747, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "57 to 59", + "probability": 0.05940594059405939, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "60 to 62", + "probability": 0.0693069306930693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "63 to 65", + "probability": 0.0198019801980198, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "66 to 68", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "69 to 71", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "72 to 74", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "75 to 77", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "78 or more", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rachel Levine to the position of Assistant Secretary for Health, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Dr. Levine to the position of Assistant Secretary for Health commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Dr. Levine be confirmed to position of Assistant Secretary for Health in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"53 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"78 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Dr. Levine to the position of Assistant Secretary for Health be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "53 or fewer, 54 to 56, 57 to 59, 60 to 62, 63 to 65, 66 to 68, 69 to 71, 72 to 74, 75 to 77, 78 or more" + }, { "title": "Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ", "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c", @@ -60434,27 +60745,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.005457359289728761, + "probability": 0.005713798396725226, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.017675327848823, + "probability": 0.018505884359542896, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.052537264804105234, + "probability": 0.05500596964011598, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.3510629632646412, + "probability": 0.3205696742282108, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.07086421764274659, + "probability": 0.07419409858434248, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60474,7 +60785,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.03258124949091797, + "probability": 0.034112229234180454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60509,7 +60820,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ursula Von der Leyen", - "probability": 0.02541337460291602, + "probability": 0.026607538802660754, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60524,22 +60835,22 @@ }, { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.35725340066791555, + "probability": 0.3740405935527887, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.05432923352610572, + "probability": 0.056882142247995905, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.002687953083000733, + "probability": 0.0028142589118198874, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.03013765577909913, + "probability": 0.03155381204161692, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60627,21 +60938,21 @@ "platform": "Smarkets", "options": [ { - "probability": 0.009927529038022437, + "probability": 0.010008006405124099, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "probability": 0.00009927529038022437, + "probability": 0.000100080064051241, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.1341209173036831, + "probability": 0.08006405124099279, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022 or later", - "probability": 0.8558522783679142, + "probability": 0.9098278622898318, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60676,32 +60987,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jeremy Corbyn", - "probability": 0.009827828271632305, + "probability": 0.011361959569130883, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nigel Farage", - "probability": 0.007758811793393925, + "probability": 0.007746790615316511, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jo Swinson", - "probability": 0.08793320032513116, + "probability": 0.08779696030692045, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keir Starmer", - "probability": 0.1572452523461169, + "probability": 0.1570016231370813, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", - "probability": 0.010566762728146013, + "probability": 0.010550391028478675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sajid Javid", - "probability": 0.02460651740190645, + "probability": 0.024568393094289504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60711,7 +61022,7 @@ }, { "name": "Dominic Raab", - "probability": 0.04108475578216211, + "probability": 0.041021100782056945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60721,17 +61032,17 @@ }, { "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", - "probability": 0.02460651740190645, + "probability": 0.024568393094289504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rory Stewart", - "probability": 0.016034877706347445, + "probability": 0.01601003393832079, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amber Rudd", - "probability": 0.02172467302150299, + "probability": 0.02169101372288623, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60746,7 +61057,7 @@ }, { "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.04108475578216211, + "probability": 0.041021100782056945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60756,17 +61067,17 @@ }, { "name": "Ruth Davidson", - "probability": 0.020542377891081057, + "probability": 0.020510550391028472, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Watson", - "probability": 0.016034877706347445, + "probability": 0.01601003393832079, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yvette Cooper", - "probability": 0.028448976575777725, + "probability": 0.028404898922827205, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60786,7 +61097,7 @@ }, { "name": "Jeremy Hunt", - "probability": 0.06716914209709599, + "probability": 0.06706507304116864, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60796,17 +61107,17 @@ }, { "name": "Lisa Nandy", - "probability": 0.03694672282568536, + "probability": 0.03688947912055481, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Truss", - "probability": 0.035173280130052456, + "probability": 0.03511878412276818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.035173280130052456, + "probability": 0.03511878412276818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60816,22 +61127,22 @@ }, { "name": "Ken Clarke", - "probability": 0.044779428064730654, + "probability": 0.04471004869411243, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Harriet Harman", - "probability": 0.007389344565137072, + "probability": 0.007377895824110962, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Margaret Beckett", - "probability": 0.0547550432276657, + "probability": 0.054670208056662235, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.21111357422596613, + "probability": 0.2107864836948502, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61288,52 +61599,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Rayner", - "probability": 0.23404833016562585, + "probability": 0.23187626092804303, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lisa Nandy", - "probability": 0.10059733912571274, + "probability": 0.0996637525218561, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.10439858810752105, + "probability": 0.10342972427706794, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", - "probability": 0.037740972033668205, + "probability": 0.03739071956960323, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anneliese Dodds", - "probability": 0.06964431170241651, + "probability": 0.06899798251513115, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rosena Allin-Khan", - "probability": 0.06787944610371979, + "probability": 0.0672494956287828, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andy Burnham", - "probability": 0.14146076568015206, + "probability": 0.14942837928715536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yvette Cooper", - "probability": 0.05905511811023622, + "probability": 0.05850706119704102, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Clive Lewis", - "probability": 0.07140917730111322, + "probability": 0.0707464694014795, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John McDonnell", - "probability": 0.037740972033668205, + "probability": 0.03739071956960323, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61343,7 +61654,7 @@ }, { "name": "Dan Jarvis", - "probability": 0.03081726853108879, + "probability": 0.030531271015467387, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61403,7 +61714,7 @@ }, { "name": "Seema Malhotra", - "probability": 0.04520771110507739, + "probability": 0.04478816408876934, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61578,51 +61889,51 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.9356291921113222, + "probability": 0.9404306701549606, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.026328961858043842, + "probability": 0.026464077279130607, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.00010011012113324656, + "probability": 0.0001006238679814852, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "probability": 0.00010011012113324656, + "probability": 0.0001006238679814852, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.034537991790970064, + "probability": 0.02958341718655665, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.00010011012113324656, + "probability": 0.0001006238679814852, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.00010011012113324656, + "probability": 0.0001006238679814852, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.002002202422664931, + "probability": 0.002012477359629704, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.0010011012113324655, + "probability": 0.001006238679814852, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.00010011012113324656, + "probability": 0.0001006238679814852, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62197,12 +62508,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5641124004987053, + "probability": 0.5454371897670868, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4358875995012947, + "probability": 0.45456281023291334, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62287,12 +62598,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5384764489242101, + "probability": 0.5370856420725187, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.46152355107578985, + "probability": 0.46291435792748126, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62407,57 +62718,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.3018201575658788, + "probability": 0.29921896040937246, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.022684053246400434, + "probability": 0.02248855373013735, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.032328171692474865, + "probability": 0.03204955561540533, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.06465634338494973, + "probability": 0.06409911123081066, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.029475685954903557, + "probability": 0.029221653649340155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.037761477859277366, + "probability": 0.03743603555076757, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.16164085846237436, + "probability": 0.16024777807702667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.027166530834012496, + "probability": 0.026932399676811204, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.059087204563977175, + "probability": 0.05857796929706436, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ivanka Trump", - "probability": 0.08489540885628905, + "probability": 0.08416374899003501, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.04686226568867156, + "probability": 0.046458389442499325, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -62482,17 +62793,17 @@ }, { "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.013583265417006248, + "probability": 0.013466199838405602, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.013583265417006248, + "probability": 0.013466199838405602, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.10445531105677805, + "probability": 0.11217344465391865, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62507,47 +62818,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.15712956501511977, + "probability": 0.14670431100010858, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.2194696441032798, + "probability": 0.226191768921707, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.15305885089555707, + "probability": 0.1429036811814529, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.026401488718306578, + "probability": 0.024649799109566727, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.011630611770179109, + "probability": 0.01085894233901618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.04477785531518957, + "probability": 0.03746335106960582, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.06838799720865316, + "probability": 0.06385058095341513, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.021167713421725978, + "probability": 0.019763275057009446, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.07757618050709465, + "probability": 0.07242914540123792, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -62557,7 +62868,7 @@ }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.07501744591765526, + "probability": 0.07004017808665436, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -62587,7 +62898,7 @@ }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.05815305885089554, + "probability": 0.0542947116950809, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -62607,7 +62918,7 @@ }, { "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.02907652942544777, + "probability": 0.02714735584754045, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -62627,7 +62938,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ivanka Trump", - "probability": 0.05815305885089554, + "probability": 0.0542947116950809, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -62642,7 +62953,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.04940818764252362, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62657,17 +62968,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.8155827548410669, + "probability": 0.8182718271827183, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.01826817683595177, + "probability": 0.018001800180018002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.0061198392400438435, + "probability": 0.006030603060306032, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -62677,17 +62988,17 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.10622944830105956, + "probability": 0.1046804680468047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.05078553160394592, + "probability": 0.05004500450045005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.0030142491779320425, + "probability": 0.0029702970297029708, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62987,32 +63298,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.730138390568939, + "probability": 0.7295151928986002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republic of Ireland", - "probability": 0.12207415000854263, + "probability": 0.12196995561625128, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.0341705108491372, + "probability": 0.03414134516899966, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.10422005808986845, + "probability": 0.10413110276544896, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "China", - "probability": 0.00085426277122843, + "probability": 0.001707067258449983, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ukraine", - "probability": 0.0085426277122843, + "probability": 0.008535336292249915, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63447,12 +63758,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43832661101210013, + "probability": 0.4686537506209637, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5616733889878999, + "probability": 0.5313462493790362, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63587,12 +63898,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06661340257665035, + "probability": 0.1875, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9333865974233496, + "probability": 0.8125, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63607,27 +63918,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "26 or fewer", - "probability": 0.0828492524521474, + "probability": 0.049072125502200116, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27–28", - "probability": 0.2267403104466241, + "probability": 0.22775970920221925, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29–30", - "probability": 0.284258642034092, + "probability": 0.2585613162425866, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "31–32", - "probability": 0.25740405675649936, + "probability": 0.2732925196097188, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "33 or more", - "probability": 0.14874773831063706, + "probability": 0.1913143294432753, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63767,12 +64078,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.0%", - "probability": 0.4562913212299297, + "probability": 0.3519569471624266, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2.0% or more", - "probability": 0.5437086787700703, + "probability": 0.6480430528375734, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64097,12 +64408,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.39999999999999997, + "probability": 0.5132926256458431, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022 or later", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.4867073743541569, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64722,27 +65033,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.4504191189584448, + "probability": 0.48953285520449696, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.4458712323880863, + "probability": 0.4704400077534405, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.012751917246299269, + "probability": 0.013859275053304903, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.0017834849295523454, + "probability": 0.0019383601473153711, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Northern Independence Party", - "probability": 0.08917424647761726, + "probability": 0.02422950184144214, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64827,12 +65138,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5238095238095238, + "probability": 0.5555555555555556, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47619047619047616, + "probability": 0.4444444444444444, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64846,12 +65157,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5238095238095238, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47619047619047616, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64903,12 +65214,50 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0033222591362126247, + "probability": 0.00398406374501992, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9966777408637874, + "probability": 0.9960159362549801, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Heritage Party", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.001996007984031936, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.998003992015968, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "SDP", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.001996007984031936, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.998003992015968, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65770,32 +66119,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5538598097114033, + "probability": 0.5625094928679308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.4195907649328812, + "probability": 0.4166736984206895, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.009139600820320185, + "probability": 0.00620871404931491, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrat", - "probability": 0.009139600820320185, + "probability": 0.00620871404931491, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "UKIP", - "probability": 0.0045925357355837745, + "probability": 0.004664257818142047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greens", - "probability": 0.0036776879794913893, + "probability": 0.0037351227946077746, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65966,6 +66315,25 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Angus Robertson, Kate Forbes, John Swinney, Joanna Cherry, Humza Yousaf, Keith Brown, Douglas Ross, Mhairi Black, Michael Russell, Ruth Davidson, Shirley-Anne Somerville, Derek Mackay, Alex Salmond, Anas Sarwar, Shona Robison, Stewart Hosie, Michael Matheson, Ash Denham, Jeane Freeman, Andrew Wilson, Jackson Carlaw, Peter Murrell, Willie Rennie, Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, Monica Lennon, Neil Findlay, Pete Wishart, Philippa Whitford, Tommy Sheppard, Richard Leonard, Michelle Ballantyne" }, + { + "title": "French 2022 Presidential Election - Candidate With The Most Votes: 1st Round", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Emmanuel Macron", + "probability": 0.5365853658536586, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marine Le Pen", + "probability": 0.46341463414634143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen" + }, { "title": "West Midlands Mayoral Election 2021", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", @@ -66178,37 +66546,42 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Soder", - "probability": 0.43037293626838957, + "probability": 0.38324741732256423, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.3825537211274574, + "probability": 0.3406643709533904, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Annalena Baerbock or Robert Habeck", + "probability": 0.10949926209216121, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.06621122096436763, + "probability": 0.05896114112654835, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.05738305816911861, + "probability": 0.051099655643008564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.0506321101492223, + "probability": 0.04508793144971344, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.012846953321444466, + "probability": 0.011440221412613857, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Soder, Armin Laschet, Robert Habeck, Annalena Baerbock, Olaf Scholz, Alice Weidel" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Soder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock or Robert Habeck, Robert Habeck, Annalena Baerbock, Olaf Scholz, Alice Weidel" }, { "title": "Next Norwegian General Election - Party With The Most Votes", @@ -66217,47 +66590,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservatives (H)", - "probability": 0.6248260227461028, + "probability": 0.6307419721034784, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour (AP)", - "probability": 0.22216036364305877, + "probability": 0.21865721699587248, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Centre Party (SP)", - "probability": 0.12816944056330315, + "probability": 0.12614839442069567, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Progress Party (FRP)", - "probability": 0.008248528353083866, + "probability": 0.008118461027074473, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Party (V)", - "probability": 0.0033191289388903203, + "probability": 0.003266791090575784, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Socialist Left Party (SV)", - "probability": 0.0033191289388903203, + "probability": 0.003266791090575784, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christian Democratic Party (KRF)", - "probability": 0.0033191289388903203, + "probability": 0.003266791090575784, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green Party (MDG)", - "probability": 0.0033191289388903203, + "probability": 0.003266791090575784, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Red Party (R)", - "probability": 0.0033191289388903203, + "probability": 0.003266791090575784, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/polymarket-questions.csv b/data/polymarket-questions.csv index 3fee108..322f995 100644 --- a/data/polymarket-questions.csv +++ b/data/polymarket-questions.csv @@ -1,43 +1,52 @@ "title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars" -"Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3354372702392304758606315718408588"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6645627297607695241393684281591412"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1012",,4 -"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9415230824472975309831197222021579"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.05847691755270246901688027779784206"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1345",,3 -"Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -","[{""name"":""Bezos"",""probability"":""0.7547543190214724443952393949548145"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Musk"",""probability"":""0.2452456809785275556047606050451855"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","115",,4 +"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9384848009899550913372178405384028"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.06151519901004490866278215946159717"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1388",,3 "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6932702187929259413244521788771466"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3067297812070740586755478211228534"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","663",,4 -"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.8991914670166528160553490117706543"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.1008085329833471839446509882293457"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","748",,4 -"Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to ""No"". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3802427852259856186827241197058271"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6197572147740143813172758802941729"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","47",,4 -"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.01171843501725611250569006864795669"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9882815649827438874943099313520433"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","166",,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6597001613185609718884312218633493"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3402998386814390281115687781366507"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","713",,4 +"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",,"This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[]",,, +"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. + +If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05326016474466037456012927193575621"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9467398352553396254398707280642438"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","615",,3 +"Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to ""No"". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3908255482088409898840672506435951"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6091744517911590101159327493564049"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","49",,4 +"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",,"This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","[]",,, "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.573155264328923542707764386955143"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.426844735671076457292235613044857"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","223",,4 -"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. - -If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.0503784603485542459425111089586649"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9496215396514457540574888910413351"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","550",,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5737368105932406376129994481466282"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4262631894067593623870005518533718"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","226",,4 "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.7505369446596093438315284089122733"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.2494630553403906561684715910877267"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","264",,4 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.7048920190196941024466746714456119"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.2951079809803058975533253285543881"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","285",,4 "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. -If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.009040131947168423474997820006593374"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9909598680528315765250021799934066"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","3967",,3 -"Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -","[{""name"":""Texas"",""probability"":""0.3881022631673488932820187667696808"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florida"",""probability"":""0.4698314285778599595421237751818497"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""California"",""probability"":""0.1420663082547911471758574580484695"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","170",,4 +If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.006455953036528953801406869581990141"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9935440469634710461985931304180099"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","4019",,3 "Will daily atmospheric CO2 be above 418 ppm on March 22, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-daily-atmospheric-co-2-be-above-418-ppm-on-march-22-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether atmospheric CO2 will be above 418.00 parts per million (ppm) for the date of March 22, 2021 as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa observatory (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the daily average atmospheric CO2 is greater than 418.00 ppm for March 22, and “No” otherwise. This market will resolve when data is first available for the date of March 22, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4323090845591573631389997231358116"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5676909154408426368610002768641884"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","330",,4 -"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1175208812305432541032320322504685"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8824791187694567458967679677495315"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","52",,4 -"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",,"This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","[]",,, +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5728869441747132536662142894135398"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4271130558252867463337857105864602"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","385",,4 +"Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +","[{""name"":""Texas"",""probability"":""0.3850733832059928289333855292423997"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florida"",""probability"":""0.4708359277137123046738459687628416"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""California"",""probability"":""0.1440906890802948663927685019947587"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","177",,4 +"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1260545953657379788087132718307385"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8739454046342620211912867281692615"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","54",,4 "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations -This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4590725161076313900835079793703723"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5409274838923686099164920206296277"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","5417",,4 -"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",,"This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4021495169091695517915726379179654"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5978504830908304482084273620820346"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","5575",,4 +"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.0905541037097459017881388858657408"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9094458962902540982118611141342592"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","307",,3 +"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.07374342770777088668847147075920592"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9262565722922291133115285292407941"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","66",,3 +"Will inflation be 0.5% or more from February to March?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-inflation-be-0-5-or-more-from-february-to-march","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U) will be 0.5% or more from February to March, when the BLS releases month-to-month inflation information for the preceding month of March on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by exactly 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) or more from February 2021 to March 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by less than 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) from February 2021 to March 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS March 2021 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%, 0.1%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (i.e. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.4%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.5%, this market will resolve to “Yes”). +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3160222901318408190249307241424349"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6839777098681591809750692758575651"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","84",,4 +"How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 22, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-22-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 22, 2021 at 3:00 pm ET. + +At 3:00pm ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,360 (the ""Baseline"") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label ""TWEETS"" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total. + +Neither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable. + +Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question. + +In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Less than 80"",""probability"":""0.2665897626185363307436593869085798"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80-95"",""probability"":""0.3241551772079657716713385877842248"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""96-110"",""probability"":""0.2787001495956022571114477355060016"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""111-125"",""probability"":""0.05633445724337731070605949886438065"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""126-140"",""probability"":""0.03542192933078144977703002435743993"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 140"",""probability"":""0.03879852400373687999046476657937326"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","714",,4 +"Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to ""Yes"".","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3698511805478125497466727860253377"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6301488194521874502533272139746623"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","484",,4 +"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.06400527550147748729364637410106849"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9359947244985225127063536258989315"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","80",,3 +"Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",,"This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule. ","[]",,, -"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.06315336882214429189149113049678626"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9368466311778557081085088695032137"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","79",,3 -"Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.7134059404626703822915834607534673"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.2865940595373296177084165392465327"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","38",,4 -"Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to ""Yes"".","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2859018905251165145550449037792685"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7140981094748834854449550962207315"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","453",,4 \ No newline at end of file +"Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17","PolyMarket","This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if a recall election is triggered and ""No"" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9124736877981445211454808638094631"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.08752631220185547885451913619053689"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1138",,3 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/polymarket-questions.json b/data/polymarket-questions.json index 24c1538..115d632 100644 --- a/data/polymarket-questions.json +++ b/data/polymarket-questions.json @@ -1,24 +1,4 @@ [ - { - "title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3354372702392304758606315718408588", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6645627297607695241393684281591412", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "1012", - "stars": 4 - }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021", @@ -27,38 +7,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9415230824472975309831197222021579", + "probability": "0.9384848009899550913372178405384028", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.05847691755270246901688027779784206", + "probability": "0.06151519901004490866278215946159717", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1345", + "numforecasts": "1388", "stars": 3 }, - { - "title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Bezos", - "probability": "0.7547543190214724443952393949548145", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Musk", - "probability": "0.2452456809785275556047606050451855", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "115", - "stars": 4 - }, { "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021", @@ -67,97 +27,28 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.6932702187929259413244521788771466", + "probability": "0.6597001613185609718884312218633493", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.3067297812070740586755478211228534", + "probability": "0.3402998386814390281115687781366507", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "663", + "numforecasts": "713", "stars": 4 }, { "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", - "platform": "PolyMarket", + "address": "0xB0E171C4e2490b97b3CEbAF36FA4006318A09b25", "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8991914670166528160553490117706543", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1008085329833471839446509882293457", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" ], - "numforecasts": "748", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3802427852259856186827241197058271", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6197572147740143813172758802941729", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "47", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01171843501725611250569006864795669", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9882815649827438874943099313520433", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "166", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n \n\n\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.573155264328923542707764386955143", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.426844735671076457292235613044857", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "223", - "stars": 4 + "options": [] }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?", @@ -167,18 +58,69 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0503784603485542459425111089586649", + "probability": "0.05326016474466037456012927193575621", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9496215396514457540574888910413351", + "probability": "0.9467398352553396254398707280642438", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "550", + "numforecasts": "615", "stars": 3 }, + { + "title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.3908255482088409898840672506435951", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.6091744517911590101159327493564049", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "49", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1", + "address": "0x36BB6f09327d1A7D0930668345655d6A6e3c6b20", + "description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.", + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" + ], + "options": [] + }, + { + "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n \n\n\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.5737368105932406376129994481466282", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.4262631894067593623870005518533718", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "226", + "stars": 4 + }, { "title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021", @@ -187,16 +129,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.7505369446596093438315284089122733", + "probability": "0.7048920190196941024466746714456119", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.2494630553403906561684715910877267", + "probability": "0.2951079809803058975533253285543881", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "264", + "numforecasts": "285", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -207,43 +149,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.009040131947168423474997820006593374", + "probability": "0.006455953036528953801406869581990141", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9909598680528315765250021799934066", + "probability": "0.9935440469634710461985931304180099", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "3967", + "numforecasts": "4019", "stars": 3 }, - { - "title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Texas", - "probability": "0.3881022631673488932820187667696808", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Florida", - "probability": "0.4698314285778599595421237751818497", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "California", - "probability": "0.1420663082547911471758574580484695", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "170", - "stars": 4 - }, { "title": "Will daily atmospheric CO2 be above 418 ppm on March 22, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-daily-atmospheric-co-2-be-above-418-ppm-on-march-22-2021", @@ -252,16 +169,41 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4323090845591573631389997231358116", + "probability": "0.5728869441747132536662142894135398", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5676909154408426368610002768641884", + "probability": "0.4271130558252867463337857105864602", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "330", + "numforecasts": "385", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Texas", + "probability": "0.3850733832059928289333855292423997", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Florida", + "probability": "0.4708359277137123046738459687628416", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "California", + "probability": "0.1440906890802948663927685019947587", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "177", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -272,29 +214,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1175208812305432541032320322504685", + "probability": "0.1260545953657379788087132718307385", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8824791187694567458967679677495315", + "probability": "0.8739454046342620211912867281692615", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "52", + "numforecasts": "54", "stars": 4 }, - { - "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", - "address": "0x21ffd9416932673d3e97Dc96baB8c13f76DA0acD", - "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" - ], - "options": [] - }, { "title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021", @@ -303,67 +234,116 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4590725161076313900835079793703723", + "probability": "0.4021495169091695517915726379179654", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5409274838923686099164920206296277", + "probability": "0.5978504830908304482084273620820346", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "5417", + "numforecasts": "5575", "stars": 4 }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0905541037097459017881388858657408", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9094458962902540982118611141342592", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "307", + "stars": 3 + }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1", - "address": "0xDF35eC97FEC070D7c565dF86C1bb9d2f15D6470A", - "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" - ], - "options": [] - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", + "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.06315336882214429189149113049678626", + "probability": "0.07374342770777088668847147075920592", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9368466311778557081085088695032137", + "probability": "0.9262565722922291133115285292407941", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "79", + "numforecasts": "66", "stars": 3 }, { - "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", + "title": "Will inflation be 0.5% or more from February to March?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-inflation-be-0-5-or-more-from-february-to-march", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", + "description": "This is a market on whether month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U) will be 0.5% or more from February to March, when the BLS releases month-to-month inflation information for the preceding month of March on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by exactly 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) or more from February 2021 to March 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by less than 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) from February 2021 to March 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS March 2021 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%, 0.1%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (i.e. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.4%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.5%, this market will resolve to “Yes”).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.7134059404626703822915834607534673", + "probability": "0.3160222901318408190249307241424349", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.2865940595373296177084165392465327", + "probability": "0.6839777098681591809750692758575651", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "38", + "numforecasts": "84", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 22, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-22-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 22, 2021 at 3:00 pm ET. \n\nAt 3:00pm ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,360 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 80", + "probability": "0.2665897626185363307436593869085798", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "80-95", + "probability": "0.3241551772079657716713385877842248", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "96-110", + "probability": "0.2787001495956022571114477355060016", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "111-125", + "probability": "0.05633445724337731070605949886438065", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "126-140", + "probability": "0.03542192933078144977703002435743993", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 140", + "probability": "0.03879852400373687999046476657937326", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "714", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -374,16 +354,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2859018905251165145550449037792685", + "probability": "0.3698511805478125497466727860253377", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7140981094748834854449550962207315", + "probability": "0.6301488194521874502533272139746623", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "453", + "numforecasts": "484", "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.06400527550147748729364637410106849", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9359947244985225127063536258989315", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "80", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", + "address": "0xa8B8c6cd59ECDe225D62185Cd3cAdE606e51b545", + "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" + ], + "options": [] + }, + { + "title": "Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a recall election is triggered and \"No\" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9124736877981445211454808638094631", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.08752631220185547885451913619053689", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "1138", + "stars": 3 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/predictit-questions.csv b/data/predictit-questions.csv index 2d701fc..d26445b 100644 --- a/data/predictit-questions.csv +++ b/data/predictit-questions.csv @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6407766990291263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.3592233009708738,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6732673267326733,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.32673267326732675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party. @@ -14,19 +14,19 @@ PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all informati PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5346534653465347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4653465346534653,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5392156862745099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.46078431372549017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5841584158415841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4158415841584158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5882352941176471,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4117647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans. Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Members of the House of Representatives who are ""delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.308411214953271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.6261682242990654,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.3113207547169811,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.6226415094339622,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET) @@ -52,26 +52,26 @@ Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be ""a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District."" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.8725490196078431,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.12745098039215685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.8811881188118812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.1188118811881188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.47457627118644063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.22033898305084743,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.06779661016949151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.05932203389830508,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.050847457627118633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.016949152542372878,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.016949152542372878,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.016949152542372878,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.016949152542372878,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paperboy Prince"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Fernando Mateo"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.4999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.21052631578947364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.06140350877192982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.05263157894736841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.05263157894736841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Fernando Mateo"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paperboy Prince"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -89,11 +89,11 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt "Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -122,49 +122,49 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.8910891089108911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Carroll Foy"",""probability"":0.07920792079207921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer McClellan"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Fairfax"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.8653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Carroll Foy"",""probability"":0.10576923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer McClellan"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Fairfax"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""). Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.11711711711711711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.3333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.27927927927927926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.17117117117117117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.05405405405405405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.054545454545454536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.2909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.35454545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.1727272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.07272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""). Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.4545454545454544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.27272727272727265,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.06363636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.04545454545454544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.036363636363636355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.027272727272727264,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.4464285714285713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.28571428571428564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.062499999999999986,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.04464285714285713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.035714285714285705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.026785714285714277,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.017857142857142853,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.008928571428571426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.008928571428571426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.008928571428571426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.008928571428571426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.008928571428571426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.008928571428571426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.008928571428571426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.008928571428571426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.008928571428571426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.47368421052631576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.24561403508771928,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.17543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.07894736842105261,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.5140186915887851,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.22429906542056072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.14018691588785046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.09345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.22807017543859642,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.14912280701754382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.0964912280701754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.08771929824561402,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.061403508771929814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.061403508771929814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.04385964912280701,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.04385964912280701,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.035087719298245605,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.035087719298245605,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.035087719298245605,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.035087719298245605,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.026315789473684202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.026315789473684202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.017543859649122803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.017543859649122803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.2427184466019417,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.15533980582524268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.09708737864077668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.09708737864077668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.058252427184466,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.058252427184466,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.03883495145631067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.03883495145631067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.03883495145631067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.029126213592233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.029126213592233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.029126213592233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.029126213592233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.019417475728155335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.019417475728155335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.019417475728155335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.9423076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.9428571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.4857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.24761904761904763,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.0857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.07619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.48598130841121495,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.24299065420560748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.08411214953271028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.08411214953271028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.06542056074766356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. @@ -192,7 +192,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt "Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -200,7 +200,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.3619047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.27619047619047615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.19999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.03809523809523809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.3363636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.3181818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.1909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.03636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) @@ -208,17 +208,17 @@ End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below. A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 5th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7104/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-5th-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 5th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. @@ -228,17 +228,17 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.5478260869565217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.33043478260869563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.017391304347826084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.5391304347826086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.3391304347826087,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.017391304347826084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8846153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8773584905660378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5294117647058824,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.47058823529411764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5346534653465347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4653465346534653,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. @@ -250,39 +250,39 @@ Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET) Note: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are ""Xi"", ""Suga"", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively. -","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.5471698113207547,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.2169811320754717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.11320754716981131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.5495495495495495,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.2252252252252252,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.1081081081081081,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.04504504504504504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Walsh be confirmed to position of Secretary of Labor in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.30275229357798167,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.5963302752293578,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.03669724770642201,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.40566037735849053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.4811320754716981,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.04716981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney'). Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.3628318584070796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.327433628318584,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.15044247787610618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.07964601769911503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.035398230088495575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.017699115044247787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.3611111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.324074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.1574074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.07407407407407407,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter ""S"". PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – @@ -297,17 +297,17 @@ Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed. -","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.049019607843137254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.6274509803921569,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.23529411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.06542056074766356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.5887850467289719,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.26168224299065423,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Juan Arteaga"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gigi Sohn"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Edward Smith"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Juan Arteaga"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gigi Sohn"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Edward Smith"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. @@ -321,31 +321,31 @@ PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's lis Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are ""Xi"" and ""Suga"", respectively. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.4077669902912621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.1359223300970874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.08737864077669902,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.07766990291262135,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.07766990291262135,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.07766990291262135,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.04854368932038835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.038834951456310676,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.029126213592233007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.4215686274509804,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.12745098039215685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.08823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.0784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.0784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.06862745098039216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.049019607843137254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.029411764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.6568627450980392,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.12745098039215685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.11764705882352941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.06862745098039216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.6380952380952382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.15238095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.12380952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.13333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.14285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.1714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.19047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.19999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.11428571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.16346153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.16346153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.19230769230769226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.16346153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.18269230769230765,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.09615384615384613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.009615384615384612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.009615384615384612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.009615384615384612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.009615384615384612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5490196078431373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.45098039215686275,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6633663366336634,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.33663366336633666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -355,7 +355,7 @@ Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Manageme A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.48598130841121484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nani Coloretti"",""probability"":0.18691588785046725,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.06542056074766354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.05607476635514017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.05607476635514017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.046728971962616814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonal Shah"",""probability"":0.028037383177570086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.018691588785046724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.018691588785046724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.018691588785046724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.009345794392523362,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jared Bernstein"",""probability"":0.009345794392523362,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.4678899082568806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nani Coloretti"",""probability"":0.17431192660550454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.05504587155963301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.05504587155963301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jared Bernstein"",""probability"":0.05504587155963301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.05504587155963301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thea Lee"",""probability"":0.04587155963302751,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.018348623853211003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonal Shah"",""probability"":0.018348623853211003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -365,7 +365,7 @@ Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in next California update?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7137/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-next-California-update","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State in its next status report subsequent to the launch of this market on February 23, 2021. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. @@ -376,19 +376,12 @@ Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 03/09/2021 8:40 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The ""next status report"" referred to in the Rules will be the Ninth Report when it is released. -","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1M"",""probability"":0.1782178217821782,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1M to 1.05M"",""probability"":0.25742574257425743,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.05M to 1.1M"",""probability"":0.2079207920792079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.1M to 1.15M"",""probability"":0.12871287128712872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.15M to 1.2M"",""probability"":0.0891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.2M to 1.25M"",""probability"":0.039603960396039604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.25M to 1.3M"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.3M to 1.35M"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.35M to 1.4M"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.4M or more"",""probability"":0.039603960396039604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1M"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1M to 1.05M"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.05M to 1.1M"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.1M to 1.15M"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.15M to 1.2M"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.2M to 1.25M"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.25M to 1.3M"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.3M to 1.35M"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.35M to 1.4M"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.4M or more"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below. Should no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.4587155963302752,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.25688073394495414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.1834862385321101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.06422018348623854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7140/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-William-Burns-as-CIA-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of William Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. -A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. -Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Burns be confirmed to position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""70 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""95 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. -The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. -PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.14150943396226415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.04716981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.11320754716981131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.20754716981132074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.23584905660377356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.1792452830188679,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.4854368932038835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.23300970873786406,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.1359223300970874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.08737864077669902,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.029126213592233007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -402,30 +395,30 @@ PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's lis Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.5999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.12999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.06999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.029999999999999992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.009999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.6199999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.06999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.04999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.029999999999999992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.009999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Susan Wright"",""probability"":0.6944444444444444,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jana Sanchez"",""probability"":0.16666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jake Ellzey"",""probability"":0.046296296296296294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Harrison"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Rodimer"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katrina Pierson"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sery Kim"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lydia Bean"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shawn Lassiter"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Susan Wright"",""probability"":0.6822429906542056,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jana Sanchez"",""probability"":0.1588785046728972,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jake Ellzey"",""probability"":0.04672897196261682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Harrison"",""probability"":0.037383177570093455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Rodimer"",""probability"":0.037383177570093455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katrina Pierson"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sery Kim"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lydia Bean"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shawn Lassiter"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Lorena González"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colleen Echohawk"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Harrell"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lance Randall"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Durkan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Grant Houston"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Lorena González"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colleen Echohawk"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Harrell"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lance Randall"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Grant Houston"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Durkan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Nicholas Burns"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Kritenbrink"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire McCaskill"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Shambaugh"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlene Barshefsky"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Nicholas Burns"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Shambaugh"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Kritenbrink"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire McCaskill"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlene Barshefsky"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Doug Collins"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Herschel Walker"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Carr"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kelly Loeffler"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Perdue"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoff Duncan"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Kemp"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Doug Collins"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Herschel Walker"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Carr"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kelly Loeffler"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Perdue"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoff Duncan"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Kemp"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and ""beauty contest"" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market. @@ -444,50 +437,50 @@ In response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the "Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Vanita Gupta be confirmed as Associate Attorney General by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7161/Will-Vanita-Gupta-be-confirmed-as-Associate-Attorney-General-by-May-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Vanita Gupta is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Associate Attorney General by the End Date listed below. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Eric Schmitt"",""probability"":0.3786407766990291,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Greitens"",""probability"":0.22330097087378642,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jason Smith"",""probability"":0.1262135922330097,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann Wagner"",""probability"":0.11650485436893203,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Billy Long"",""probability"":0.0970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Kehoe"",""probability"":0.029126213592233007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Blunt"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Ashcroft"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carl Edwards"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Eric Schmitt"",""probability"":0.3644859813084112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Greitens"",""probability"":0.25233644859813087,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jason Smith"",""probability"":0.12149532710280374,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann Wagner"",""probability"":0.11214953271028036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Billy Long"",""probability"":0.09345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Kehoe"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Ashcroft"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Blunt"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carl Edwards"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Mark Walker"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lara Trump"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat McCrory"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Budd"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Forest"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burr"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Meadows"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Mark Walker"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lara Trump"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat McCrory"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Budd"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Forest"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burr"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Meadows"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag). PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""38 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""39"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""41"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42"",""probability"":0.9339622641509433,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""43"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""38 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""39"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""41"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42"",""probability"":0.9428571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""43"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the ""Tie Votes"" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm). Should that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""3 votes"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5 votes"",""probability"":0.029411764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7 votes"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9 votes"",""probability"":0.11764705882352941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11 votes"",""probability"":0.10784313725490197,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13 votes"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or 15 votes"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16 or 17 votes"",""probability"":0.08823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18 or 19 votes"",""probability"":0.0784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20 or more"",""probability"":0.27450980392156865,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""3 votes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5 votes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7 votes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9 votes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11 votes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13 votes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or 15 votes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16 or 17 votes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18 or 19 votes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20 or more"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio . PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Tishaura Jones"",""probability"":0.8543689320388349,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cara Spencer"",""probability"":0.14563106796116504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Tishaura Jones"",""probability"":0.8476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cara Spencer"",""probability"":0.15238095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election. The 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat. Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., ""delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market. @@ -496,31 +489,24 @@ Control of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general electi Should the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President. Determination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Dem. House & Senate"",""probability"":0.3451327433628319,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House, D Senate"",""probability"":0.3008849557522124,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rep. House & Senate"",""probability"":0.24778761061946908,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""D House, R Senate"",""probability"":0.10619469026548674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Dem. House & Senate"",""probability"":0.34615384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rep. House & Senate"",""probability"":0.2980769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House, D Senate"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""D House, R Senate"",""probability"":0.10576923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Letitia James"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathy Hochul"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alessandra Biaggi"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jumaane Williams"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas DiNapoli"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill de Blasio"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Suozzi"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Letitia James"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathy Hochul"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alessandra Biaggi"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jumaane Williams"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas DiNapoli"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill de Blasio"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Suozzi"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7174/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-impeached-before-Sept-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Jeff Jackson"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Erica Smith"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Lee Watkins"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heath Shuler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cheri Beasley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Jeff Jackson"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cheri Beasley"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Erica Smith"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Lee Watkins"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heath Shuler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election. Candidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be ""Independent."" PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.7623762376237624,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Independent"",""probability"":0.15841584158415842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.07920792079207921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 -"How many Yea votes in the House for the American Dream and Promise Act?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7177/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-for-the-American-Dream-and-Promise-Act","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. House of Representatives who, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 17, 2021, but before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of the American Dream and Promise Act. -Should more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""216 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""233 or more"" shall resolve as Yes. -Once the results of the vote have been announced and without objection the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market. -Votes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. -PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -End Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""216 or fewer"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""217 or 218"",""probability"":0.29411764705882354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""219 or 220"",""probability"":0.24509803921568626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""221 or 222"",""probability"":0.19607843137254902,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""223 or 224"",""probability"":0.12745098039215685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""225 or 226"",""probability"":0.06862745098039216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""227 or 228"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""229 or 230"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""231 or 232"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""233 or more"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.8269230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Independent"",""probability"":0.11538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.05769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "How many Senators vote to confirm Shalanda Young as OMB Deputy Director by 4/15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7178/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Shalanda-Young-as-OMB-Deputy-Director-by-4-15","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Shalanda Young to the position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. @@ -528,16 +514,46 @@ Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Young to the position of De The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","[{""name"":""56 or fewer"",""probability"":0.3962264150943396,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""57 to 59"",""probability"":0.16037735849056603,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 to 62"",""probability"":0.16037735849056603,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 to 65"",""probability"":0.10377358490566037,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 68"",""probability"":0.0660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 to 71"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""72 to 74"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 to 77"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 80"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""81 or more"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""56 or fewer"",""probability"":0.25471698113207547,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""57 to 59"",""probability"":0.24528301886792453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 to 62"",""probability"":0.2169811320754717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 to 65"",""probability"":0.12264150943396226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 68"",""probability"":0.0660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 to 71"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""72 to 74"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 to 77"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 80"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""81 or more"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the OH-11 special election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7179/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-OH-11-special-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2021 OH-11 special election. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bryan Flannery"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Johnson"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tariq Shabazz"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shirley Smith"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dennis Kucinich"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barnes Jr."",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shontel Brown"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0.6886792452830188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shontel Brown"",""probability"":0.25471698113207547,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barnes Jr."",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bryan Flannery"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Johnson"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tariq Shabazz"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shirley Smith"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dennis Kucinich"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","[{""name"":""Ron Kind"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alex Lasry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Nelson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Godlewski"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +","[{""name"":""Alex Lasry"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron Kind"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Godlewski"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Nelson"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 "Will Dianne Feinstein still be a U.S. Senator on Sept. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7181/Will-Dianne-Feinstein-still-be-a-US-Senator-on-Sept-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) shall be a United States Senator on the End Date listed below. Any resignation or official removal from office that is effective at any time prior to the End Date shall cause this market to resolve No. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) -","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 \ No newline at end of file +","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alabama Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. +PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. +","[{""name"":""Mo Brooks"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katie Britt"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Moore"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Sessions"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lynda Blanchard"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Shelby"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Merrill"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"Who will win the 2021 Pittsburgh Democratic Mayoral nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7183/Who-will-win-the-2021-Pittsburgh-Democratic-Mayoral-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Democratic nomination for Mayor of Pittsburgh, PA. +PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. +","[{""name"":""Bill Peduto"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Gainey"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"What will be the margin in the first round of the LA-02 House special election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7184/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-first-round-of-the-LA-02-House-special-election","PredictIt","The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for ballot-listed candidates officially reported, in the first round of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District. In the event of a tie between two or more candidates for the largest share of the popular vote, the contract ""Under 2%"" shall resolve to Yes. +Percentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages. +Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. +PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. +","[{""name"":""Under 2%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2% to 4%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4% to 6%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6% to 8%"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8% to 10%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10% to 12%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12% to 14%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14% to 16%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16% to 18%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18% or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"How many Senators vote to confirm Vivek Murthy as Surgeon General by 4/30?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7185/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Vivek-Murthy-as-Surgeon-General-by-4-30","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Vivek Murthy to the position of Surgeon General, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. +Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. +Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Dr. Murthy to the position of Surgeon General commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Dr. Murthy be confirmed to position of Surgeon General in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""59 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""84 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Dr. Murthy to the position of Surgeon General be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. +The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. +End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) +","[{""name"":""59 or fewer"",""probability"":0.23529411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 to 62"",""probability"":0.16666666666666669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 to 65"",""probability"":0.19607843137254902,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 68"",""probability"":0.20588235294117646,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 to 71"",""probability"":0.08823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""72 to 74"",""probability"":0.029411764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 to 77"",""probability"":0.029411764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 80"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""81 to 83"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""84 or more"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 +"How many Senate votes to confirm Rachel Levine as Asst. Sec. for Health by 4/30?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7186/How-many-Senate-votes-to-confirm-Rachel-Levine-as-Asst-Sec-for-Health-by-4-30","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rachel Levine to the position of Assistant Secretary for Health, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. +Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. +Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Dr. Levine to the position of Assistant Secretary for Health commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Dr. Levine be confirmed to position of Assistant Secretary for Health in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""53 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""78 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Dr. Levine to the position of Assistant Secretary for Health be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. +The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. +End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) +","[{""name"":""53 or fewer"",""probability"":0.5544554455445544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 to 56"",""probability"":0.24752475247524747,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""57 to 59"",""probability"":0.05940594059405939,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 to 62"",""probability"":0.0693069306930693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 to 65"",""probability"":0.0198019801980198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 68"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 to 71"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""72 to 74"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 to 77"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 or more"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/predictit-questions.json b/data/predictit-questions.json index 60372dc..9043c17 100644 --- a/data/predictit-questions.json +++ b/data/predictit-questions.json @@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.6407766990291263, + "probability": 0.6732673267326733, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.3592233009708738, + "probability": 0.32673267326732675, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -54,12 +54,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5346534653465347, + "probability": 0.5392156862745099, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4653465346534653, + "probability": 0.46078431372549017, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -73,12 +73,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5841584158415841, + "probability": 0.5882352941176471, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4158415841584158, + "probability": 0.4117647058823529, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -92,47 +92,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "22 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "25", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26", - "probability": 0.308411214953271, + "probability": 0.3113207547169811, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27", - "probability": 0.6261682242990654, + "probability": 0.6226415094339622, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -203,12 +203,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -222,12 +222,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -241,7 +241,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -260,12 +260,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.8725490196078431, + "probability": 0.8811881188118812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.12745098039215685, + "probability": 0.1188118811881188, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -279,82 +279,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.47457627118644063, + "probability": 0.4999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.22033898305084743, + "probability": 0.21052631578947364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.06779661016949151, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.05932203389830508, + "probability": 0.06140350877192982, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.050847457627118633, + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Scott Stringer", + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.016949152542372878, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.016949152542372878, + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.016949152542372878, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.016949152542372878, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Max Rose", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Zach Iscol", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Catsimatidis", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Paperboy Prince", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Fernando Mateo", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Carlos Menchaca", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Loree Sutton", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dianne Morales", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Curtis Sliwa", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Max Rose", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Zach Iscol", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Catsimatidis", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Paperboy Prince", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -425,12 +425,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -444,12 +444,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -539,12 +539,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -577,22 +577,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Terry McAuliffe", - "probability": 0.8910891089108911, + "probability": 0.8653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy", - "probability": 0.07920792079207921, + "probability": 0.10576923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jennifer McClellan", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Fairfax", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -606,12 +606,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -625,52 +625,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "23 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24 or 25", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26 or 27", - "probability": 0.11711711711711711, + "probability": 0.054545454545454536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28 or 29", - "probability": 0.3333333333333333, + "probability": 0.2909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or 31", - "probability": 0.27927927927927926, + "probability": 0.35454545454545455, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "32 or 33", - "probability": 0.17117117117117117, + "probability": 0.1727272727272727, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "34 or 35", - "probability": 0.05405405405405405, + "probability": 0.07272727272727272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "36 or 37", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.01818181818181818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "38 or 39", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40 or more", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -684,12 +684,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08999999999999997, + "probability": 0.06999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -703,82 +703,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.4545454545454544, + "probability": 0.4464285714285713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.27272727272727265, + "probability": 0.28571428571428564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.06363636363636363, + "probability": 0.062499999999999986, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.04545454545454544, + "probability": 0.04464285714285713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.036363636363636355, + "probability": 0.035714285714285705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.027272727272727264, + "probability": 0.026785714285714277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.018181818181818177, + "probability": 0.017857142857142853, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christian Lindner", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katja Kipping", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Gauland", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernd Riexinger", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.009090909090909089, + "probability": 0.008928571428571426, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -792,37 +792,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kirk Cox", - "probability": 0.47368421052631576, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Glenn Youngkin", - "probability": 0.24561403508771928, + "probability": 0.5140186915887851, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Snyder", - "probability": 0.17543859649122806, + "probability": 0.22429906542056072, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Glenn Youngkin", + "probability": 0.14018691588785046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amanda Chase", - "probability": 0.07894736842105261, + "probability": 0.09345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neil Chatterjee", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmett Hanger", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bill Stanley", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -855,82 +855,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.22807017543859642, + "probability": 0.2427184466019417, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.14912280701754382, + "probability": 0.15533980582524268, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.0964912280701754, + "probability": 0.09708737864077668, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.08771929824561402, + "probability": 0.09708737864077668, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.061403508771929814, + "probability": 0.058252427184466, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.061403508771929814, + "probability": 0.058252427184466, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.04385964912280701, + "probability": 0.03883495145631067, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.04385964912280701, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.035087719298245605, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.035087719298245605, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.035087719298245605, + "probability": 0.03883495145631067, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.035087719298245605, + "probability": 0.03883495145631067, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pompeo", + "probability": 0.029126213592233, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tucker Carlson", + "probability": 0.029126213592233, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", + "probability": 0.029126213592233, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.026315789473684202, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.026315789473684202, + "probability": 0.029126213592233, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.017543859649122803, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rick Scott", + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Larry Hogan", - "probability": 0.017543859649122803, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -954,7 +954,7 @@ }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -988,37 +988,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "33 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "34 or 35", - "probability": 0.9423076923076923, + "probability": 0.9428571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "36 or 37", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "38 or 39", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40 or 41", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42 or 43", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "44 or more", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1032,37 +1032,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Michelle Wu", - "probability": 0.4857142857142857, + "probability": 0.48598130841121495, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Janey", - "probability": 0.24761904761904763, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Barros", - "probability": 0.0857142857142857, + "probability": 0.24299065420560748, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Campbell", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, + "probability": 0.08411214953271028, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Barros", + "probability": 0.08411214953271028, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Santiago", - "probability": 0.06666666666666667, + "probability": 0.06542056074766356, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Essaibi-George", - "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "probability": 0.02803738317757009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marty Walsh", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1171,12 +1171,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1209,67 +1209,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jane Timken", - "probability": 0.3619047619047619, + "probability": 0.3363636363636363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "J. D. Vance", - "probability": 0.27619047619047615, + "probability": 0.3181818181818181, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.19999999999999998, + "probability": 0.1909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Stivers", - "probability": 0.03809523809523809, + "probability": 0.03636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "probability": 0.027272727272727268, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Turner", - "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "probability": 0.027272727272727268, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Frank LaRose", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Wenstrup", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1302,12 +1302,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1321,12 +1321,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1340,12 +1340,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1428,12 +1428,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Troy Carter", - "probability": 0.5478260869565217, + "probability": 0.5391304347826086, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Karen Peterson", - "probability": 0.33043478260869563, + "probability": 0.3391304347826087, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1512,52 +1512,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lenín Moreno", - "probability": 0.8846153846153846, + "probability": 0.8773584905660378, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Ortega", - "probability": 0.038461538461538464, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Francisco Sagasti", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sebastián Piñera", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Iván Duque", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "A. M. López Obrador", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alberto Fernández", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Luis Arce", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nicolás Maduro", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Francisco Sagasti", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sebastián Piñera", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Iván Duque", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "A. M. López Obrador", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alberto Fernández", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Luis Arce", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1571,12 +1571,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5294117647058824, + "probability": 0.5346534653465347, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.47058823529411764, + "probability": 0.4653465346534653, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1590,52 +1590,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Hassan Rouhani", - "probability": 0.5471698113207547, + "probability": 0.5495495495495495, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.2169811320754717, + "probability": 0.2252252252252252, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.11320754716981131, + "probability": 0.1081081081081081, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "probability": 0.04504504504504504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Jong-un", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Moon Jae-in", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joko Widodo", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1649,12 +1649,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08999999999999997, + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1668,7 +1668,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1687,52 +1687,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.30275229357798167, + "probability": 0.40566037735849053, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.5963302752293578, + "probability": 0.4811320754716981, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.03669724770642201, + "probability": 0.04716981132075472, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1746,47 +1746,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tali Weinstein", - "probability": 0.3628318584070796, + "probability": 0.3611111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alvin Bragg", - "probability": 0.327433628318584, + "probability": 0.324074074074074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tahanie Aboushi", - "probability": 0.15044247787610618, + "probability": 0.1574074074074074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eliza Orlins", - "probability": 0.07964601769911503, + "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Quart", - "probability": 0.035398230088495575, + "probability": 0.037037037037037035, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lucy Lang", - "probability": 0.017699115044247787, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyrus Vance", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Diana Florence", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Crotty", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1805,27 +1805,22 @@ }, { "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Abiy Ahmed", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Abiy Ahmed", + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1834,12 +1829,17 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", - "probability": 0.02, + "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -1859,12 +1859,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1878,62 +1878,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "12 or fewer", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "13", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "15", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "17", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "19", - "probability": 0.049019607843137254, + "probability": 0.06542056074766356, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20", - "probability": 0.6274509803921569, + "probability": 0.5887850467289719, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21", - "probability": 0.23529411764705882, + "probability": 0.26168224299065423, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "22", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23 or more", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1947,51 +1947,36 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jonathan Kanter", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Renata Hesse", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Sallet", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Terrell McSweeny", + "name": "Renata Hesse", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", - "probability": 0.08, + "name": "Terrell McSweeny", + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Jon Leibowitz", + "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Juan Arteaga", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Susan Davies", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dave Gelfand", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steven Sunshine", + "name": "Jon Leibowitz", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -2001,7 +1986,22 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Juan Arteaga", + "name": "Susan Davies", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dave Gelfand", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Steven Sunshine", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -2031,7 +2031,7 @@ }, { "name": "Guillermo Lasso", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2109,52 +2109,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.4077669902912621, + "probability": 0.4215686274509804, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.1359223300970874, + "probability": 0.12745098039215685, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Trudeau", - "probability": 0.08737864077669902, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.07766990291262135, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.07766990291262135, + "probability": 0.0784313725490196, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.07766990291262135, + "probability": 0.0784313725490196, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Boris Johnson", + "probability": 0.06862745098039216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.04854368932038835, + "probability": 0.049019607843137254, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.038834951456310676, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.029126213592233007, + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2173,7 +2173,7 @@ }, { "name": "Amy Acton", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2202,32 +2202,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.6568627450980392, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.12745098039215685, + "probability": 0.6380952380952382, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conor Lamb", - "probability": 0.11764705882352941, + "probability": 0.15238095238095237, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", + "probability": 0.12380952380952381, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Madeleine Dean", - "probability": 0.06862745098039216, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Kenney", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.06666666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Sestak", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Kenney", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2241,52 +2241,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "62 or fewer", - "probability": 0.13333333333333333, + "probability": 0.16346153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 or 64", - "probability": 0.14285714285714285, + "probability": 0.16346153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 or 66", - "probability": 0.1714285714285714, + "probability": 0.19230769230769226, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "67 or 68", - "probability": 0.19047619047619047, + "probability": 0.16346153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 or 70", - "probability": 0.19999999999999998, + "probability": 0.18269230769230765, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 or 72", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.09615384615384613, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or 74", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.009615384615384612, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 or 76", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384612, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 or 78", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384612, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "79 or more", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009615384615384612, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2305,22 +2305,22 @@ }, { "name": "Ryan Costello", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Everett Stern", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlie Dent", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2334,12 +2334,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.5490196078431373, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.45098039215686275, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2353,12 +2353,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6633663366336634, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.33663366336633666, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2391,62 +2391,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shalanda Young", - "probability": 0.48598130841121484, + "probability": 0.4678899082568806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nani Coloretti", - "probability": 0.18691588785046725, + "probability": 0.17431192660550454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann O'Leary", - "probability": 0.06542056074766354, + "probability": 0.05504587155963301, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sarah Bianchi", - "probability": 0.05607476635514017, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chris Lu", - "probability": 0.05607476635514017, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Martha Coven", - "probability": 0.046728971962616814, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sonal Shah", - "probability": 0.028037383177570086, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gene Sperling", - "probability": 0.018691588785046724, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Heather Boushey", - "probability": 0.018691588785046724, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Jones", - "probability": 0.018691588785046724, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Neera Tanden", - "probability": 0.009345794392523362, + "probability": 0.05504587155963301, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jared Bernstein", - "probability": 0.009345794392523362, + "probability": 0.05504587155963301, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Lu", + "probability": 0.05504587155963301, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Thea Lee", + "probability": 0.04587155963302751, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Heather Boushey", + "probability": 0.027522935779816505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Martha Coven", + "probability": 0.018348623853211003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sonal Shah", + "probability": 0.018348623853211003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gene Sperling", + "probability": 0.009174311926605502, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Neera Tanden", + "probability": 0.009174311926605502, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Jones", + "probability": 0.009174311926605502, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2460,12 +2465,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2479,52 +2484,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 1M", - "probability": 0.1782178217821782, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1M to 1.05M", - "probability": 0.25742574257425743, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.05M to 1.1M", - "probability": 0.2079207920792079, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.1M to 1.15M", - "probability": 0.12871287128712872, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.15M to 1.2M", - "probability": 0.0891089108910891, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.2M to 1.25M", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.25M to 1.3M", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.3M to 1.35M", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.35M to 1.4M", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.4M or more", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2538,107 +2543,48 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Rob Bonta", - "probability": 0.4587155963302752, + "probability": 0.4854368932038835, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Darrell Steinberg", - "probability": 0.25688073394495414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Adam Schiff", - "probability": 0.1834862385321101, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Goodwin Liu", - "probability": 0.06422018348623854, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Xavier Becerra", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.23300970873786406, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rick Chavez Zbur", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.1359223300970874, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Adam Schiff", + "probability": 0.08737864077669902, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Goodwin Liu", + "probability": 0.029126213592233007, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Xavier Becerra", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeff Rosen", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Diana Becton", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.\nShould no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3 }, - { - "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7140/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-William-Burns-as-CIA-Director-by-3-31", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "options": [ - { - "name": "70 or fewer", - "probability": 0.14150943396226415, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.11320754716981131, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.20754716981132074, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "92 to 94", - "probability": 0.23584905660377356, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "95 or more", - "probability": 0.1792452830188679, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of William Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Burns be confirmed to position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"70 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"95 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "stars": 3 - }, { "title": "Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district", @@ -2684,12 +2630,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.5999999999999999, + "probability": 0.6199999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrej Babiš", - "probability": 0.12999999999999998, + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2698,12 +2644,12 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", - "probability": 0.039999999999999994, + "name": "Mark Rutte", + "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Mark Rutte", + "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", "probability": 0.039999999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -2743,17 +2689,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yonhy Lescano", - "probability": 0.58, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George Forsyth", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2762,12 +2708,12 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Hernando de Soto", - "probability": 0.01, + "name": "Verónika Mendoza", + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Verónika Mendoza", + "name": "Hernando de Soto", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -2812,47 +2758,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Susan Wright", - "probability": 0.6944444444444444, + "probability": 0.6822429906542056, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jana Sanchez", - "probability": 0.16666666666666666, + "probability": 0.1588785046728972, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jake Ellzey", - "probability": 0.046296296296296294, + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Harrison", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.037383177570093455, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Rodimer", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.037383177570093455, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katrina Pierson", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sery Kim", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lydia Bean", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shawn Lassiter", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2866,17 +2812,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lorena González", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Colleen Echohawk", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bruce Harrell", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2885,12 +2831,12 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Jenny Durkan", - "probability": 0.01, + "name": "Andrew Grant Houston", + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Andrew Grant Houston", + "name": "Jenny Durkan", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } @@ -2905,7 +2851,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nicholas Burns", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.66, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Shambaugh", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2913,18 +2869,8 @@ "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Claire McCaskill", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David Shambaugh", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -2944,17 +2890,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Herschel Walker", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chris Carr", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3017,12 +2963,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3036,12 +2982,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3055,47 +3001,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Eric Schmitt", - "probability": 0.3786407766990291, + "probability": 0.3644859813084112, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Greitens", - "probability": 0.22330097087378642, + "probability": 0.25233644859813087, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jason Smith", - "probability": 0.1262135922330097, + "probability": 0.12149532710280374, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann Wagner", - "probability": 0.11650485436893203, + "probability": 0.11214953271028036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Billy Long", - "probability": 0.0970873786407767, + "probability": 0.09345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Kehoe", - "probability": 0.029126213592233007, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Roy Blunt", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jay Ashcroft", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Roy Blunt", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carl Edwards", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3124,7 +3070,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ted Budd", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3153,12 +3099,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3172,12 +3118,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3191,37 +3137,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "38 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "39", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "41", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42", - "probability": 0.9339622641509433, + "probability": 0.9428571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "43", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "44 or more", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3235,52 +3181,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "3 votes", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or 5 votes", - "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7 votes", - "probability": 0.09803921568627451, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9 votes", - "probability": 0.11764705882352941, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11 votes", - "probability": 0.10784313725490197, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12 or 13 votes", - "probability": 0.09803921568627451, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14 or 15 votes", - "probability": 0.09803921568627451, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16 or 17 votes", - "probability": 0.08823529411764705, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18 or 19 votes", - "probability": 0.0784313725490196, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20 or more", - "probability": 0.27450980392156865, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3294,12 +3240,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3313,12 +3259,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3332,12 +3278,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tishaura Jones", - "probability": 0.8543689320388349, + "probability": 0.8476190476190476, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cara Spencer", - "probability": 0.14563106796116504, + "probability": 0.15238095238095237, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3351,22 +3297,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Dem. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.3451327433628319, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "R House, D Senate", - "probability": 0.3008849557522124, + "probability": 0.34615384615384615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rep. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.24778761061946908, + "probability": 0.2980769230769231, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "R House, D Senate", + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "D House, R Senate", - "probability": 0.10619469026548674, + "probability": 0.10576923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3380,17 +3326,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Letitia James", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathy Hochul", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Cuomo", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3404,17 +3350,12 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Thomas DiNapoli", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bill de Blasio", + "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", + "name": "Thomas DiNapoli", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -3423,6 +3364,11 @@ "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Bill de Blasio", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "probability": 0.01, @@ -3444,12 +3390,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3463,12 +3409,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jeff Jackson", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cheri Beasley", + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Erica Smith", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3480,11 +3431,6 @@ "name": "Heath Shuler", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cheri Beasley", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", @@ -3497,82 +3443,23 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.7623762376237624, + "probability": 0.8269230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Independent", - "probability": 0.15841584158415842, + "probability": 0.11538461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.07920792079207921, + "probability": 0.05769230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election.\nCandidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be \"Independent.\"\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3 }, - { - "title": "How many Yea votes in the House for the American Dream and Promise Act?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7177/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-for-the-American-Dream-and-Promise-Act", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "options": [ - { - "name": "216 or fewer", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "217 or 218", - "probability": 0.29411764705882354, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "219 or 220", - "probability": 0.24509803921568626, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "221 or 222", - "probability": 0.19607843137254902, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "223 or 224", - "probability": 0.12745098039215685, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "225 or 226", - "probability": 0.06862745098039216, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "227 or 228", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "229 or 230", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "231 or 232", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "233 or more", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. House of Representatives who, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 17, 2021, but before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of the American Dream and Promise Act.\nShould more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"216 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"233 or more\" shall resolve as Yes. \nOnce the results of the vote have been announced and without objection the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market.\nVotes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "stars": 3 - }, { "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Shalanda Young as OMB Deputy Director by 4/15?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7178/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Shalanda-Young-as-OMB-Deputy-Director-by-4-15", @@ -3580,22 +3467,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "56 or fewer", - "probability": 0.3962264150943396, + "probability": 0.25471698113207547, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "57 to 59", - "probability": 0.16037735849056603, + "probability": 0.24528301886792453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60 to 62", - "probability": 0.16037735849056603, + "probability": 0.2169811320754717, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 to 65", - "probability": 0.10377358490566037, + "probability": 0.12264150943396226, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3605,7 +3492,7 @@ }, { "name": "69 to 71", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3620,7 +3507,7 @@ }, { "name": "78 to 80", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3639,42 +3526,42 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nina Turner", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bryan Flannery", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jeff Johnson", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tariq Shabazz", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Shirley Smith", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dennis Kucinich", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Barnes Jr.", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.6886792452830188, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shontel Brown", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.25471698113207547, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Barnes Jr.", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bryan Flannery", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeff Johnson", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tariq Shabazz", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Shirley Smith", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dennis Kucinich", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3686,24 +3573,24 @@ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ - { - "name": "Ron Kind", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Alex Lasry", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Tom Nelson", - "probability": 0, + "name": "Ron Kind", + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sarah Godlewski", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Nelson", + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3717,16 +3604,256 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) shall be a United States Senator on the End Date listed below. Any resignation or official removal from office that is effective at any time prior to the End Date shall cause this market to resolve No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n", "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Mo Brooks", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Katie Britt", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Roy Moore", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeff Sessions", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lynda Blanchard", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Richard Shelby", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Merrill", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alabama Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2021 Pittsburgh Democratic Mayoral nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7183/Who-will-win-the-2021-Pittsburgh-Democratic-Mayoral-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Bill Peduto", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ed Gainey", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Democratic nomination for Mayor of Pittsburgh, PA.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "What will be the margin in the first round of the LA-02 House special election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7184/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-first-round-of-the-LA-02-House-special-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Under 2%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "2% to 4%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "4% to 6%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "6% to 8%", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "8% to 10%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "10% to 12%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "12% to 14%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "14% to 16%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "16% to 18%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "18% or more", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for ballot-listed candidates officially reported, in the first round of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District. In the event of a tie between two or more candidates for the largest share of the popular vote, the contract \"Under 2%\" shall resolve to Yes.\nPercentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Vivek Murthy as Surgeon General by 4/30?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7185/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Vivek-Murthy-as-Surgeon-General-by-4-30", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "59 or fewer", + "probability": 0.23529411764705882, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "60 to 62", + "probability": 0.16666666666666669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "63 to 65", + "probability": 0.19607843137254902, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "66 to 68", + "probability": 0.20588235294117646, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "69 to 71", + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "72 to 74", + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "75 to 77", + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "78 to 80", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "81 to 83", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "84 or more", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Vivek Murthy to the position of Surgeon General, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Dr. Murthy to the position of Surgeon General commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Dr. Murthy be confirmed to position of Surgeon General in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"59 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"84 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Dr. Murthy to the position of Surgeon General be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "How many Senate votes to confirm Rachel Levine as Asst. Sec. for Health by 4/30?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7186/How-many-Senate-votes-to-confirm-Rachel-Levine-as-Asst-Sec-for-Health-by-4-30", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "53 or fewer", + "probability": 0.5544554455445544, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "54 to 56", + "probability": 0.24752475247524747, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "57 to 59", + "probability": 0.05940594059405939, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "60 to 62", + "probability": 0.0693069306930693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "63 to 65", + "probability": 0.0198019801980198, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "66 to 68", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "69 to 71", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "72 to 74", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "75 to 77", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "78 or more", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rachel Levine to the position of Assistant Secretary for Health, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Dr. Levine to the position of Assistant Secretary for Health commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Dr. Levine be confirmed to position of Assistant Secretary for Health in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"53 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"78 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Dr. Levine to the position of Assistant Secretary for Health be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "stars": 3 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/smarkets-questions.csv b/data/smarkets-questions.csv index 946134d..891455a 100644 --- a/data/smarkets-questions.csv +++ b/data/smarkets-questions.csv @@ -1,11 +1,11 @@ "title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars" "Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request","[{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.03746229444390386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.0009730466089325679,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.025591125814926532,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0.027050695728325382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.10810547825240828,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.06490220881580228,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0.06276150627615062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.05264182154325192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.00544906101002238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.0810547825240829,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0.05264182154325192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.07482728422691447,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.03892186435730271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.013914566507735718,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobias Ellwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.030359054198696115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.023158509292595112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.009730466089325677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Philip Hammond"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2904544127663715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Gender of next Conservative leader","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?","[{""name"":""Male"",""probability"":0.7736942156241513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Female"",""probability"":0.22630578437584864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel","https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.005457359289728761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.017675327848823,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.052537264804105234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.3510629632646412,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.07086421764274659,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Nahles"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Gunther"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.03258124949091797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wolfgang Schäuble"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julia Klockner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heiko Maas"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malu Dreyer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Altmaier"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralf Stegner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ursula Von der Leyen"",""probability"":0.02541337460291602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sahra Wagenknecht"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Sonneborn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.35725340066791555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.05432923352610572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.002687953083000733,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.03013765577909913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel","https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.005713798396725226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.018505884359542896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.05500596964011598,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.3205696742282108,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.07419409858434248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Nahles"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Gunther"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.034112229234180454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wolfgang Schäuble"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julia Klockner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heiko Maas"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malu Dreyer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Altmaier"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralf Stegner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ursula Von der Leyen"",""probability"":0.026607538802660754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sahra Wagenknecht"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Sonneborn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.3740405935527887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.056882142247995905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.0028142589118198874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.03155381204161692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon","https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Derek Mackay"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Humza Yousaf"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Hosie"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mhairi Black"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Shona Robison"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Swinney"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keith Brown"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Joanna Cherry"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angus Robertson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alex Salmond"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Michael Matheson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tommy Sheppard"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Angela Constance"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Roseanna Cunningham"",""probability"":null}]",,,2 -"Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","","[{""probability"":0.009927529038022437,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00009927529038022437,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.1341209173036831,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.8558522783679142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","","[{""probability"":0.010008006405124099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.000100080064051241,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.08006405124099279,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.9098278622898318,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05664798777381558,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9433520122261844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request","[{""name"":""Jeremy Corbyn"",""probability"":0.009827828271632305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nigel Farage"",""probability"":0.007758811793393925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jo Swinson"",""probability"":0.08793320032513116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keir Starmer"",""probability"":0.1572452523461169,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.010566762728146013,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.02460651740190645,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.04108475578216211,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.02460651740190645,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.016034877706347445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.02172467302150299,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Grieve"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.04108475578216211,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.020542377891081057,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Watson"",""probability"":0.016034877706347445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.028448976575777725,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.06716914209709599,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.03694672282568536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.035173280130052456,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.035173280130052456,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ken Clarke"",""probability"":0.044779428064730654,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harriet Harman"",""probability"":0.007389344565137072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Beckett"",""probability"":0.0547550432276657,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.21111357422596613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request","[{""name"":""Jeremy Corbyn"",""probability"":0.011361959569130883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nigel Farage"",""probability"":0.007746790615316511,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jo Swinson"",""probability"":0.08779696030692045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keir Starmer"",""probability"":0.1570016231370813,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.010550391028478675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.024568393094289504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.041021100782056945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.024568393094289504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.01601003393832079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.02169101372288623,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Grieve"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.041021100782056945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.020510550391028472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Watson"",""probability"":0.01601003393832079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.028404898922827205,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.06706507304116864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.03688947912055481,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.03511878412276818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.03511878412276818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ken Clarke"",""probability"":0.04471004869411243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harriet Harman"",""probability"":0.007377895824110962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Beckett"",""probability"":0.054670208056662235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2107864836948502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "NY-22 Congressional District Winner","https://smarkets.com/event/32279294/politics/us/2020-house-representatives-results/new-york-22-congressional-district-race","Smarkets","Which party will win in New York's 22nd Congressional District in the 2020 House of Representatives Election? Contracts to be added on request.","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6297324817180413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.3702675182819587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Year of next General Election","https://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""2020"",""probability"":0.04392129304286718,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.06271960646521434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.08784258608573436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.18692902319044274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024 or later"",""probability"":0.6185874912157414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Year of next Scottish referendum","https://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendum","Smarkets","","[{""probability"":0.07764344119085889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.04822139911943532,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.17471521420085262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.09986721643720735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2729750506674121,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.3265776783842337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 @@ -18,12 +18,12 @@ "Macron first round vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?","[{""name"":""Under 25%"",""probability"":0.5155602574274882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25% or over"",""probability"":0.48443974257251166,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor? -Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0.23404833016562585,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.10059733912571274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.10439858810752105,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.037740972033668205,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anneliese Dodds"",""probability"":0.06964431170241651,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rosena Allin-Khan"",""probability"":0.06787944610371979,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Burnham"",""probability"":0.14146076568015206,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.05905511811023622,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Clive Lewis"",""probability"":0.07140917730111322,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0.037740972033668205,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ian Lavery"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Jarvis"",""probability"":0.03081726853108879,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nick Thomas-Symonds"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sam Tarry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Louise Haigh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burgon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dawn Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Carden"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jess Phillips"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Lammy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Trickett"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Barry Gardiner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seema 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McGovern"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bridget Phillipson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0.23187626092804303,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.0996637525218561,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.10342972427706794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.03739071956960323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anneliese Dodds"",""probability"":0.06899798251513115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rosena Allin-Khan"",""probability"":0.0672494956287828,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Burnham"",""probability"":0.14942837928715536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.05850706119704102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Clive Lewis"",""probability"":0.0707464694014795,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0.03739071956960323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ian Lavery"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Jarvis"",""probability"":0.030531271015467387,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nick Thomas-Symonds"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sam Tarry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Louise Haigh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burgon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dawn Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Carden"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jess Phillips"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Lammy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Trickett"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Barry Gardiner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seema Malhotra"",""probability"":0.04478816408876934,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Ashworth"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Miliband"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hilary Benn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stella Creasy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rachel Reeves"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laura Pidcock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlotte Nichols"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kate Osborne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Greenwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zarah Sultana"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wes Streeting"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim McMahon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alison McGovern"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bridget Phillipson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Gender of the next Labour leader","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first?","[{""name"":""Female"",""probability"":0.5508474576271186,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Male"",""probability"":0.4491525423728813,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Year of next General Election to take place in Israel","https://smarkets.com/event/41634554/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-general-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""2020"",""probability"":0.03763359927743489,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.7307692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.23159716995333432,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "First Minister to leave the Cabinet?","https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go","Smarkets","With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ","[{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.4085036637099884,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt Hancock"",""probability"":0.5914963362900116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Keir Starmer exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?","[{""name"":""2023 or earlier"",""probability"":0.4574565416285453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.23760292772186642,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.30494053064958826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.9356291921113222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.026328961858043842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.00010011012113324656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00010011012113324656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.034537991790970064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.00010011012113324656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.00010011012113324656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.002002202422664931,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Kurten"",""probability"":0.0010011012113324655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Piers Corbyn"",""probability"":0.00010011012113324656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.9404306701549606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.026464077279130607,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.0001006238679814852,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.0001006238679814852,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.02958341718655665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.0001006238679814852,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.0001006238679814852,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.002012477359629704,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Kurten"",""probability"":0.001006238679814852,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Piers Corbyn"",""probability"":0.0001006238679814852,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round","https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences","Smarkets","Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3167398244213887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6832601755786113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Andy Street"",""probability"":0.696604909244804,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liam Byrne"",""probability"":0.3033950907551961,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beverley Nielsen"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Downs"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Ben Houchen"",""probability"":0.7560150032019028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jessie Joe Jacobs"",""probability"":0.24398499679809715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 @@ -40,15 +40,15 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil "Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022","Smarkets","Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16540927951716333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8345907204828368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next Fianna Fáil leader","https://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martin","Smarkets","Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Jim O'Callaghan"",""probability"":0.39789438502673796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael McGrath"",""probability"":0.3410762032085562,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dara Calleary"",""probability"":0.2610294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas Byrne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Niall Collins"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Lawless"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul McAuliffe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darragh O'Brien"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norma Foley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Troy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McGuinness"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jack Chambers"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Browne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Rabbitte"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seán Ó Fearghail"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eamon O'Cuiv"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022)","https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""For independence"",""probability"":0.5534059668058242,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Against independence"",""probability"":0.4465940331941757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?","https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5641124004987053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4358875995012947,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?","https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5454371897670868,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45456281023291334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next general election overall majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority","Smarkets","Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""No overall majority"",""probability"":0.42750430951924917,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative majority"",""probability"":0.32570388814403367,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour majority"",""probability"":0.24248228308753111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat majority"",""probability"":0.0043095192491859795,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Date of next Japanese general election","https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","When will the next Japanese general election take place?","[{""name"":""Before 22 October 2021"",""probability"":0.5904173106646059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22 October 2021 or later"",""probability"":0.4095826893353941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Belarus to have a General Election in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4664641271325076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5335358728674924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"Joe Biden to serve full term","https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term","Smarkets","Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5384764489242101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.46152355107578985,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Joe Biden to serve full term","https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term","Smarkets","Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5370856420725187,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.46291435792748126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "2024 Democratic presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.3478207937667397,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.3927440954467981,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.05076698319941563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.08120282444606769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0.04504504504504505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.060871682493304116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.020331141952763573,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Klobuchar"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Garcetti"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cory Booker"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gretchen Whitmer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0.0012174336498660824,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"2024 Republican presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.3018201575658788,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.022684053246400434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.032328171692474865,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.06465634338494973,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.029475685954903557,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.037761477859277366,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.16164085846237436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.027166530834012496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.059087204563977175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.08489540885628905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.04686226568867156,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Trump"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.013583265417006248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.013583265417006248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.10445531105677805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"2024 US presidential winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner","Smarkets","Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.15712956501511977,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.2194696441032798,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.15305885089555707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.026401488718306578,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.011630611770179109,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.04477785531518957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06838799720865316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.021167713421725978,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.07757618050709465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.07501744591765526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.05815305885089554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.02907652942544777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.05815305885089554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Candace Owens"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8155827548410669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.01826817683595177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.0061198392400438435,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.10622944830105956,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.05078553160394592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0030142491779320425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"2024 Republican presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.29921896040937246,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.02248855373013735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.03204955561540533,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.06409911123081066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.029221653649340155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.03743603555076757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.16024777807702667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.026932399676811204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.05857796929706436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.08416374899003501,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.046458389442499325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Trump"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.013466199838405602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.013466199838405602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.11217344465391865,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"2024 US presidential winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner","Smarkets","Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.14670431100010858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.226191768921707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.1429036811814529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.024649799109566727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.01085894233901618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.03746335106960582,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06385058095341513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.019763275057009446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.07242914540123792,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.07004017808665436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.0542947116950809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.02714735584754045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.0542947116950809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Candace Owens"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.04940818764252362,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8182718271827183,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.018001800180018002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.006030603060306032,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.1046804680468047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.05004500450045005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0029702970297029708,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat","Smarkets","Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13378808549340612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.866211914506594,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election","https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election","Smarkets","Contracts available on request.","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4087618689480116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democrat"",""probability"":0.5912381310519883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "London Assembly: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority","Smarkets","Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41771041084962107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5822895891503789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 @@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil "Brexit Party to control any council","https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council","Smarkets","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.050332192470304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.949667807529696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat","Smarkets","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09087437953417335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9091256204658267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""0–2"",""probability"":0.7598774124078522,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0.24012258759214777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"Joe Biden's first international visit","https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit","Smarkets","Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?","[{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.730138390568939,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republic of Ireland"",""probability"":0.12207415000854263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.0341705108491372,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.10422005808986845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""China"",""probability"":0.00085426277122843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ukraine"",""probability"":0.0085426277122843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Joe Biden's first international visit","https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit","Smarkets","Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?","[{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.7295151928986002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republic of Ireland"",""probability"":0.12196995561625128,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.03414134516899966,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.10413110276544896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""China"",""probability"":0.001707067258449983,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ukraine"",""probability"":0.008535336292249915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.028906577293674067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45–49.9%"",""probability"":0.11026392961876832,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50–54.9%"",""probability"":0.5622957687473816,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55–59.9%"",""probability"":0.20946795140343527,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60–64.9%"",""probability"":0.07616254713028905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65% or over"",""probability"":0.012903225806451613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post","Smarkets","Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7920825016633399,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20791749833666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary","Smarkets","Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3994252873563218,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6005747126436781,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 @@ -79,19 +79,19 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil "Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""CDU + CSU"",""probability"":0.8866338069005509,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""SPD"",""probability"":0.053735382236397025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.04204117135401566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""AfD"",""probability"":0.01758963950903644,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary","https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "2022 House of Representatives control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-control","Smarkets","Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections?","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.3759190298863745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6240809701136256,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment","https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43832661101210013,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5616733889878999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment","https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4686537506209637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5313462493790362,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "2022 Senate control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-control","Smarkets","Which party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.44550898203592815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5544910179640719,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandy","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6005369127516779,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39946308724832214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "2022 House and Senate control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-and-senate-control","Smarkets","Who will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?","[{""name"":""D House / D Senate"",""probability"":0.2841289413422582,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""D House / R Senate"",""probability"":0.12585872820151486,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House / D Senate"",""probability"":0.2230051083318654,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House / R Senate"",""probability"":0.36700722212436143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42056981/politics/us/dollars/harriet-tubman","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5351127473538886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4648872526461113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure)","https://smarkets.com/event/42058821/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-turnout","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""50% and below"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""51-53%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54-56%"",""probability"":0.47237606375793595,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""57%+"",""probability"":0.527623936242064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress","https://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congress","Smarkets","Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06661340257665035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9333865974233496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"2021 Israeli election: Likud seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?","[{""name"":""26 or fewer"",""probability"":0.0828492524521474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27–28"",""probability"":0.2267403104466241,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29–30"",""probability"":0.284258642034092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""31–32"",""probability"":0.25740405675649936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""33 or more"",""probability"":0.14874773831063706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress","https://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congress","Smarkets","Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"2021 Israeli election: Likud seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?","[{""name"":""26 or fewer"",""probability"":0.049072125502200116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27–28"",""probability"":0.22775970920221925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29–30"",""probability"":0.2585613162425866,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""31–32"",""probability"":0.2732925196097188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""33 or more"",""probability"":0.1913143294432753,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "2021 Israeli election: Joint List seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067810/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-joint-list-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election?","[{""name"":""8 or fewer"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next G20 leader to leave","https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave","Smarkets","Which of the listed leaders of G20 countries will be the next to leave their position?","[{""name"":""Yoshihide Suga (Japan)"",""probability"":0.5845854201446856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron (France)"",""probability"":0.2107679465776294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden (United States)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson (United Kingdom)"",""probability"":0.20464663327768506,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau (Canada)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin (Russia)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping (China)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Year of next Canadian federal election","https://smarkets.com/event/42093782/politics/world/canada/year-of-next-canadian-general-election","Smarkets","When will the next Canadian federal election take place?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.4012149786925378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.17109438752380088,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023 or later"",""probability"":0.42769063378366123,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliament","https://smarkets.com/event/42093783/politics/uk/scotland/alliance-4-unity-to-win-a-seat-in-the-scottish-parliament","Smarkets","Will Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11546469808820746,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8845353019117925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"Brian Rose vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share","Smarkets","What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?","[{""name"":""Less than 2.0%"",""probability"":0.4562913212299297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2.0% or more"",""probability"":0.5437086787700703,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Brian Rose vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share","Smarkets","What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?","[{""name"":""Less than 2.0%"",""probability"":0.3519569471624266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2.0% or more"",""probability"":0.6480430528375734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Aberdeenshire West","https://smarkets.com/event/42096476/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-west","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberdeenshire West at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5665742024965326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.43342579750346744,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Ayr","https://smarkets.com/event/42096491/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/ayr","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Ayr at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6379892345588906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.36201076544110933,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Dumbarton","https://smarkets.com/event/42096506/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumbarton","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumbarton at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6490849447513812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.35091505524861877,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 @@ -106,7 +106,7 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil "North East Fife","https://smarkets.com/event/42096593/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/north-east-fife","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of North East Fife at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.32412084246640616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0.6758791575335938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour)","https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour","Smarkets","Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "2021 Senedd election: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-labour-majority","Smarkets","Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32688113413304254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6731188658669575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"Nicola Sturgeon exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.39999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Nicola Sturgeon exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.5132926256458431,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.4867073743541569,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Aberdeen South and North Kincardine","https://smarkets.com/event/42104039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-south-and-north-kincardine","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberdeen South and North Kincardine at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Aberdeenshire East","https://smarkets.com/event/42104040/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-east","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberdeenshire East at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.7619047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.23809523809523808,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Angus North and Mearns","https://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearns","Smarkets","Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.683055775839281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.316944224160719,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 @@ -136,6 +136,6 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil "Newport East","https://smarkets.com/event/42117438/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-east","Smarkets","Which party will win Newport East at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Newport West","https://smarkets.com/event/42117439/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-west","Smarkets","Which party will win Newport West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Ynys Môn","https://smarkets.com/event/42117452/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ynys-mon","Smarkets","Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"Hartlepool by-election","https://smarkets.com/event/42118665/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election","Smarkets","Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4504191189584448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.4458712323880863,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Reform UK"",""probability"":0.012751917246299269,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.0017834849295523454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Northern Independence Party"",""probability"":0.08917424647761726,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Hartlepool by-election","https://smarkets.com/event/42118665/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election","Smarkets","Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.48953285520449696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.4704400077534405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Reform UK"",""probability"":0.013859275053304903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.0019383601473153711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Northern Independence Party"",""probability"":0.02422950184144214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Joe Biden exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/42119912/politics/us/joe-biden/joe-biden-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Joe Biden cease to be President of the United States?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "2021 Scottish Parliament election: SNP seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42120331/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will the SNP win in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""60 or fewer"",""probability"":0.1356868395773295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""61–64"",""probability"":0.23206852385526736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65–68"",""probability"":0.29867114953570284,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69–72"",""probability"":0.2223823246878002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or more"",""probability"":0.1111911623439001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/smarkets-questions.json b/data/smarkets-questions.json index c01c222..9ef72f4 100644 --- a/data/smarkets-questions.json +++ b/data/smarkets-questions.json @@ -149,27 +149,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.005457359289728761, + "probability": 0.005713798396725226, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.017675327848823, + "probability": 0.018505884359542896, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.052537264804105234, + "probability": 0.05500596964011598, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.3510629632646412, + "probability": 0.3205696742282108, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.07086421764274659, + "probability": 0.07419409858434248, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -189,7 +189,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.03258124949091797, + "probability": 0.034112229234180454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -224,7 +224,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ursula Von der Leyen", - "probability": 0.02541337460291602, + "probability": 0.026607538802660754, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -239,22 +239,22 @@ }, { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.35725340066791555, + "probability": 0.3740405935527887, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.05432923352610572, + "probability": 0.056882142247995905, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.002687953083000733, + "probability": 0.0028142589118198874, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.03013765577909913, + "probability": 0.03155381204161692, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -340,21 +340,21 @@ "platform": "Smarkets", "options": [ { - "probability": 0.009927529038022437, + "probability": 0.010008006405124099, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "probability": 0.00009927529038022437, + "probability": 0.000100080064051241, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.1341209173036831, + "probability": 0.08006405124099279, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022 or later", - "probability": 0.8558522783679142, + "probability": 0.9098278622898318, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -387,32 +387,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jeremy Corbyn", - "probability": 0.009827828271632305, + "probability": 0.011361959569130883, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nigel Farage", - "probability": 0.007758811793393925, + "probability": 0.007746790615316511, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jo Swinson", - "probability": 0.08793320032513116, + "probability": 0.08779696030692045, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keir Starmer", - "probability": 0.1572452523461169, + "probability": 0.1570016231370813, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", - "probability": 0.010566762728146013, + "probability": 0.010550391028478675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sajid Javid", - "probability": 0.02460651740190645, + "probability": 0.024568393094289504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -422,7 +422,7 @@ }, { "name": "Dominic Raab", - "probability": 0.04108475578216211, + "probability": 0.041021100782056945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -432,17 +432,17 @@ }, { "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", - "probability": 0.02460651740190645, + "probability": 0.024568393094289504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rory Stewart", - "probability": 0.016034877706347445, + "probability": 0.01601003393832079, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amber Rudd", - "probability": 0.02172467302150299, + "probability": 0.02169101372288623, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -457,7 +457,7 @@ }, { "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.04108475578216211, + "probability": 0.041021100782056945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -467,17 +467,17 @@ }, { "name": "Ruth Davidson", - "probability": 0.020542377891081057, + "probability": 0.020510550391028472, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Watson", - "probability": 0.016034877706347445, + "probability": 0.01601003393832079, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yvette Cooper", - "probability": 0.028448976575777725, + "probability": 0.028404898922827205, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -497,7 +497,7 @@ }, { "name": "Jeremy Hunt", - "probability": 0.06716914209709599, + "probability": 0.06706507304116864, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -507,17 +507,17 @@ }, { "name": "Lisa Nandy", - "probability": 0.03694672282568536, + "probability": 0.03688947912055481, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Truss", - "probability": 0.035173280130052456, + "probability": 0.03511878412276818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.035173280130052456, + "probability": 0.03511878412276818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -527,22 +527,22 @@ }, { "name": "Ken Clarke", - "probability": 0.044779428064730654, + "probability": 0.04471004869411243, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Harriet Harman", - "probability": 0.007389344565137072, + "probability": 0.007377895824110962, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Margaret Beckett", - "probability": 0.0547550432276657, + "probability": 0.054670208056662235, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.21111357422596613, + "probability": 0.2107864836948502, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -988,52 +988,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Rayner", - "probability": 0.23404833016562585, + "probability": 0.23187626092804303, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lisa Nandy", - "probability": 0.10059733912571274, + "probability": 0.0996637525218561, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.10439858810752105, + "probability": 0.10342972427706794, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", - "probability": 0.037740972033668205, + "probability": 0.03739071956960323, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anneliese Dodds", - "probability": 0.06964431170241651, + "probability": 0.06899798251513115, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rosena Allin-Khan", - "probability": 0.06787944610371979, + "probability": 0.0672494956287828, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andy Burnham", - "probability": 0.14146076568015206, + "probability": 0.14942837928715536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yvette Cooper", - "probability": 0.05905511811023622, + "probability": 0.05850706119704102, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Clive Lewis", - "probability": 0.07140917730111322, + "probability": 0.0707464694014795, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John McDonnell", - "probability": 0.037740972033668205, + "probability": 0.03739071956960323, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1043,7 +1043,7 @@ }, { "name": "Dan Jarvis", - "probability": 0.03081726853108879, + "probability": 0.030531271015467387, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1103,7 +1103,7 @@ }, { "name": "Seema Malhotra", - "probability": 0.04520771110507739, + "probability": 0.04478816408876934, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1273,51 +1273,51 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.9356291921113222, + "probability": 0.9404306701549606, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.026328961858043842, + "probability": 0.026464077279130607, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.00010011012113324656, + "probability": 0.0001006238679814852, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "probability": 0.00010011012113324656, + "probability": 0.0001006238679814852, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.034537991790970064, + "probability": 0.02958341718655665, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.00010011012113324656, + "probability": 0.0001006238679814852, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.00010011012113324656, + "probability": 0.0001006238679814852, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.002002202422664931, + "probability": 0.002012477359629704, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.0010011012113324655, + "probability": 0.001006238679814852, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.00010011012113324656, + "probability": 0.0001006238679814852, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1875,12 +1875,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5641124004987053, + "probability": 0.5454371897670868, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4358875995012947, + "probability": 0.45456281023291334, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1961,12 +1961,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5384764489242101, + "probability": 0.5370856420725187, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.46152355107578985, + "probability": 0.46291435792748126, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2079,57 +2079,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.3018201575658788, + "probability": 0.29921896040937246, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.022684053246400434, + "probability": 0.02248855373013735, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.032328171692474865, + "probability": 0.03204955561540533, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.06465634338494973, + "probability": 0.06409911123081066, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.029475685954903557, + "probability": 0.029221653649340155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.037761477859277366, + "probability": 0.03743603555076757, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.16164085846237436, + "probability": 0.16024777807702667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.027166530834012496, + "probability": 0.026932399676811204, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.059087204563977175, + "probability": 0.05857796929706436, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ivanka Trump", - "probability": 0.08489540885628905, + "probability": 0.08416374899003501, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.04686226568867156, + "probability": 0.046458389442499325, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2154,17 +2154,17 @@ }, { "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.013583265417006248, + "probability": 0.013466199838405602, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.013583265417006248, + "probability": 0.013466199838405602, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.10445531105677805, + "probability": 0.11217344465391865, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2178,47 +2178,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.15712956501511977, + "probability": 0.14670431100010858, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.2194696441032798, + "probability": 0.226191768921707, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.15305885089555707, + "probability": 0.1429036811814529, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.026401488718306578, + "probability": 0.024649799109566727, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.011630611770179109, + "probability": 0.01085894233901618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.04477785531518957, + "probability": 0.03746335106960582, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.06838799720865316, + "probability": 0.06385058095341513, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.021167713421725978, + "probability": 0.019763275057009446, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.07757618050709465, + "probability": 0.07242914540123792, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2228,7 +2228,7 @@ }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.07501744591765526, + "probability": 0.07004017808665436, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2258,7 +2258,7 @@ }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.05815305885089554, + "probability": 0.0542947116950809, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2278,7 +2278,7 @@ }, { "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.02907652942544777, + "probability": 0.02714735584754045, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2298,7 +2298,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ivanka Trump", - "probability": 0.05815305885089554, + "probability": 0.0542947116950809, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2313,7 +2313,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.04940818764252362, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2327,17 +2327,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.8155827548410669, + "probability": 0.8182718271827183, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.01826817683595177, + "probability": 0.018001800180018002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.0061198392400438435, + "probability": 0.006030603060306032, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2347,17 +2347,17 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.10622944830105956, + "probability": 0.1046804680468047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.05078553160394592, + "probability": 0.05004500450045005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.0030142491779320425, + "probability": 0.0029702970297029708, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2644,32 +2644,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.730138390568939, + "probability": 0.7295151928986002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republic of Ireland", - "probability": 0.12207415000854263, + "probability": 0.12196995561625128, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.0341705108491372, + "probability": 0.03414134516899966, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.10422005808986845, + "probability": 0.10413110276544896, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "China", - "probability": 0.00085426277122843, + "probability": 0.001707067258449983, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ukraine", - "probability": 0.0085426277122843, + "probability": 0.008535336292249915, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3086,12 +3086,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43832661101210013, + "probability": 0.4686537506209637, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5616733889878999, + "probability": 0.5313462493790362, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3220,12 +3220,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06661340257665035, + "probability": 0.1875, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9333865974233496, + "probability": 0.8125, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3239,27 +3239,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "26 or fewer", - "probability": 0.0828492524521474, + "probability": 0.049072125502200116, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27–28", - "probability": 0.2267403104466241, + "probability": 0.22775970920221925, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29–30", - "probability": 0.284258642034092, + "probability": 0.2585613162425866, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "31–32", - "probability": 0.25740405675649936, + "probability": 0.2732925196097188, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "33 or more", - "probability": 0.14874773831063706, + "probability": 0.1913143294432753, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3394,12 +3394,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.0%", - "probability": 0.4562913212299297, + "probability": 0.3519569471624266, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2.0% or more", - "probability": 0.5437086787700703, + "probability": 0.6480430528375734, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3709,12 +3709,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.39999999999999997, + "probability": 0.5132926256458431, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022 or later", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.4867073743541569, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4304,27 +4304,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.4504191189584448, + "probability": 0.48953285520449696, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.4458712323880863, + "probability": 0.4704400077534405, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.012751917246299269, + "probability": 0.013859275053304903, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.0017834849295523454, + "probability": 0.0019383601473153711, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Northern Independence Party", - "probability": 0.08917424647761726, + "probability": 0.02422950184144214, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/williamhill-questions.csv b/data/williamhill-questions.csv index 3dd00a9..58aa488 100644 --- a/data/williamhill-questions.csv +++ b/data/williamhill-questions.csv @@ -1,9 +1,11 @@ "title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars" -"Labour","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5238095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47619047619047616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"Conservatives","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5238095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47619047619047616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Labour","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5555555555555556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4444444444444444,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Conservatives","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Northern Independence Party","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Reform 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Party","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.001996007984031936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.998003992015968,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"SDP","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.001996007984031936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.998003992015968,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "US Politics - Kamala Harris Specials","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill",,"[{""name"":""Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040"",""probability"":0.6086956521739131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris to become a two-term President of the United States before the end of 2040"",""probability"":0.391304347826087,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Prime Minister 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newline at end of file diff --git a/data/williamhill-questions.json b/data/williamhill-questions.json index 9c78998..98b90e2 100644 --- a/data/williamhill-questions.json +++ b/data/williamhill-questions.json @@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5238095238095238, + "probability": 0.5555555555555556, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47619047619047616, + "probability": 0.4444444444444444, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24,12 +24,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5238095238095238, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47619047619047616, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -78,12 +78,48 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0033222591362126247, + "probability": 0.00398406374501992, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9966777408637874, + "probability": 0.9960159362549801, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Heritage Party", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.001996007984031936, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.998003992015968, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "SDP", + "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", + "platform": "WilliamHill", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.001996007984031936, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.998003992015968, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -937,32 +973,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5538598097114033, + "probability": 0.5625094928679308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.4195907649328812, + "probability": 0.4166736984206895, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.009139600820320185, + 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