From 756cd45cd99b91726df6aba72e48ceaf5142af55 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: NunoSempere Date: Fri, 5 Mar 2021 20:54:40 +0100 Subject: [PATCH] Added foretold to the mix --- data/csetforetell-questions.csv | 50 +- data/csetforetell-questions.json | 152 +- data/elicit-questions.csv | 472 +- data/elicit-questions.json | 6448 ++++++------ data/foretold-questions.csv | 93 + data/foretold-questions.json | 1193 +++ data/goodjudgment-questions.csv | 24 +- data/goodjudgment-questions.json | 70 +- data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv | 401 +- data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json | 931 +- data/hypermind-questions.csv | 43 +- data/hypermind-questions.json | 258 +- data/metaculus-questions.csv | 1300 +-- data/metaculus-questions.json | 1541 +-- data/metaforecasts.json | 14022 +++++++++++++++----------- data/omen-questions.csv | 5 +- data/omen-questions.json | 57 - data/polymarket-questions.csv | 31 +- data/polymarket-questions.json | 248 +- data/predictit-questions.csv | 233 +- data/predictit-questions.json | 1489 +-- data/smarkets-questions.csv | 126 +- data/smarkets-questions.json | 1184 ++- src/foretold-fetch.js | 94 + src/index.js | 50 +- src/stars.js | 12 + 26 files changed, 17661 insertions(+), 12866 deletions(-) create mode 100644 data/foretold-questions.csv create mode 100644 data/foretold-questions.json create mode 100644 src/foretold-fetch.js diff --git a/data/csetforetell-questions.csv b/data/csetforetell-questions.csv index 8822d4a..59c725d 100644 --- a/data/csetforetell-questions.csv +++ b/data/csetforetell-questions.csv @@ -1,20 +1,20 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" -"What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $470 billion"",""probability"":0.036699999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.0975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion"",""probability"":0.2225,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion"",""probability"":0.3613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $680 billion"",""probability"":0.2821,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today -","35",2 -"Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. ""Fires upon"" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World -","61",2 +"What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $470 billion"",""probability"":0.0369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.0965,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion"",""probability"":0.22460000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion"",""probability"":0.3504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $680 billion"",""probability"":0.2915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today +","38",2 +"Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. ""Fires upon"" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World +","64",2 "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. -","108",3 +","111",3 "How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $40 billion"",""probability"":0.0617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion"",""probability"":0.4125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion"",""probability"":0.2146,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion"",""probability"":0.0842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is ""private"" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?"" ","36",2 -"How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $13 billion"",""probability"":0.031400000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion"",""probability"":0.4833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion"",""probability"":0.281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.07429999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?"" -","30",2 -"What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than -0.25"",""probability"":0.1508,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25"",""probability"":0.3206,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.5"",""probability"":0.0447,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump."" -","107",3 -"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.0538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.218,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million"",""probability"":0.3369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million"",""probability"":0.2365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 million"",""probability"":0.1547,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&amp;E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&amp;E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&amp;E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an ""AI contract"" if BGOV classified it in the ""Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"" market. It's a ""research"" contract if it has a ""Research and Development"" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. -","88",2 -"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $30 million"",""probability"":0.049699999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2959,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million"",""probability"":0.3286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million"",""probability"":0.1962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 million"",""probability"":0.12960000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. -","110",3 +"How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $13 billion"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1264,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion"",""probability"":0.4864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion"",""probability"":0.2841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.0732,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?"" +","31",2 +"What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than -0.25"",""probability"":0.1507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.30879999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25"",""probability"":0.32030000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5"",""probability"":0.1754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.5"",""probability"":0.044800000000000006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump."" +","108",3 +"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.053200000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million"",""probability"":0.3479,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million"",""probability"":0.2361,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 million"",""probability"":0.15109999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&amp;E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&amp;E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&amp;E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an ""AI contract"" if BGOV classified it in the ""Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"" market. It's a ""research"" contract if it has a ""Research and Development"" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. +","90",2 +"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $30 million"",""probability"":0.047599999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.30219999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million"",""probability"":0.33030000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million"",""probability"":0.19210000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 million"",""probability"":0.1278,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. +","112",3 "How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 26,000"",""probability"":0.0525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000"",""probability"":0.23829999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 32,000"",""probability"":0.2433,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an ""AI"" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ","38",2 "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 800"",""probability"":0.1389,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 800 and 4,000"",""probability"":0.41509999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000"",""probability"":0.3017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000"",""probability"":0.11220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000"",""probability"":0.0321,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, ""Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.""The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a ""bargaining unit"" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, ""workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract."" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. *** @@ -22,24 +22,24 @@ "What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 0.45%"",""probability"":0.044500000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1726,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%"",""probability"":0.2923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%"",""probability"":0.2394,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2%"",""probability"":0.25129999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence""; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms ""privacy"" and ""security.""  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today ","47",2 "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that ""China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.""The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.*** -","101",3 -"How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0.30329999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""One"",""probability"":0.3908,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Two or more"",""probability"":0.306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) ""military end-use or end-user controls,"" which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry -","85",2 +","103",3 +"How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0.3207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""One"",""probability"":0.38189999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Two or more"",""probability"":0.2974,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) ""military end-use or end-user controls,"" which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry +","87",2 "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 20%"",""probability"":0.0974,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 25%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1808,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%"",""probability"":0.3563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%"",""probability"":0.2421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 35%"",""probability"":0.1234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. ","59",2 "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the ""lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly ""pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration."" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. *** -","240",3 -"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.0453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.11689999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.24480000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.593,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** -","179",3 +","246",3 +"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.044800000000000006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.2427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** +","181",3 "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.1446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.20190000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.2702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.1233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ","172",3 "What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.078,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.2938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.3209,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.1528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ","101",3 "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today ","155",3 -"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.11320000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.2901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.2991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.12480000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2021. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. -","239",3 -"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.06709999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.213,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.2667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.3126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field -","183",3 -"How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.3593,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.30260000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.17559999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.10949999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. -","96",2 \ No newline at end of file +"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.11230000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17170000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.2876,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.3048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.12359999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2021. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. +","241",3 +"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.0673,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14029999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.21230000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.3141,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field +","184",3 +"How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.3636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.30820000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.1007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.0475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. +","99",2 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/csetforetell-questions.json b/data/csetforetell-questions.json index 89bf2dc..89a6f9d 100644 --- a/data/csetforetell-questions.json +++ b/data/csetforetell-questions.json @@ -7,32 +7,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $470 billion", - "probability": 0.036699999999999997, + "probability": 0.0369, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.0975, + "probability": 0.0965, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", - "probability": 0.2225, + "probability": 0.22460000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", - "probability": 0.3613, + "probability": 0.3504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $680 billion", - "probability": 0.2821, + "probability": 0.2915, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "35", - "numforecasters": "35", + "numforecasts": "38", + "numforecasters": "38", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -43,17 +43,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "61", - "numforecasters": "60", + "numforecasts": "64", + "numforecasters": "62", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -73,8 +73,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "108", - "numforecasters": "92", + "numforecasts": "111", + "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -121,32 +121,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $13 billion", - "probability": 0.031400000000000004, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.1264, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion", - "probability": 0.4833, + "probability": 0.4864, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion", - "probability": 0.281, + "probability": 0.2841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $25 billion", - "probability": 0.07429999999999999, + "probability": 0.0732, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "30", - "numforecasters": "30", + "numforecasts": "31", + "numforecasters": "31", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -157,32 +157,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than -0.25", - "probability": 0.1508, + "probability": 0.1507, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3089, + "probability": 0.30879999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", - "probability": 0.3206, + "probability": 0.32030000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5", - "probability": 0.175, + "probability": 0.1754, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.5", - "probability": 0.0447, + "probability": 0.044800000000000006, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "107", - "numforecasters": "96", + "numforecasts": "108", + "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -193,32 +193,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $200 million", - "probability": 0.0538, + "probability": 0.053200000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.218, + "probability": 0.2118, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million", - "probability": 0.3369, + "probability": 0.3479, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million", - "probability": 0.2365, + "probability": 0.2361, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $650 million", - "probability": 0.1547, + "probability": 0.15109999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "88", - "numforecasters": "80", + "numforecasts": "90", + "numforecasters": "82", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -229,32 +229,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $30 million", - "probability": 0.049699999999999994, + "probability": 0.047599999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2959, + "probability": 0.30219999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million", - "probability": 0.3286, + "probability": 0.33030000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million", - "probability": 0.1962, + "probability": 0.19210000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $150 million", - "probability": 0.12960000000000002, + "probability": 0.1278, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "110", - "numforecasters": "103", + "numforecasts": "112", + "numforecasters": "105", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -382,7 +382,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "101", + "numforecasts": "103", "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3 }, @@ -394,22 +394,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Zero", - "probability": 0.30329999999999996, + "probability": 0.3207, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "One", - "probability": 0.3908, + "probability": 0.38189999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Two or more", - "probability": 0.306, + "probability": 0.2974, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "85", - "numforecasters": "76", + "numforecasts": "87", + "numforecasters": "78", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -465,8 +465,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "240", - "numforecasters": "169", + "numforecasts": "246", + "numforecasters": "171", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -477,27 +477,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before February 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.0453, + "probability": 0.044800000000000006, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive", - "probability": 0.11689999999999999, + "probability": 0.1155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.24480000000000002, + "probability": 0.2427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.593, + "probability": 0.597, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "179", - "numforecasters": "120", + "numforecasts": "181", + "numforecasters": "121", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -601,32 +601,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 59%", - "probability": 0.11320000000000001, + "probability": 0.11230000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1728, + "probability": 0.17170000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%", - "probability": 0.2901, + "probability": 0.2876, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%", - "probability": 0.2991, + "probability": 0.3048, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 80%", - "probability": 0.12480000000000001, + "probability": 0.12359999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "239", - "numforecasters": "180", + "numforecasts": "241", + "numforecasters": "182", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -637,32 +637,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 1.5%", - "probability": 0.06709999999999999, + "probability": 0.0673, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1405, + "probability": 0.14029999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%", - "probability": 0.213, + "probability": 0.21230000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%", - "probability": 0.2667, + "probability": 0.266, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6%", - "probability": 0.3126, + "probability": 0.3141, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "183", - "numforecasters": "133", + "numforecasts": "184", + "numforecasters": "134", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -673,32 +673,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 675", - "probability": 0.3593, + "probability": 0.3636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive", - "probability": 0.30260000000000004, + "probability": 0.30820000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825", - "probability": 0.17559999999999998, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900", - "probability": 0.10949999999999999, + "probability": 0.1007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 900", - "probability": 0.053, + "probability": 0.0475, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "96", - "numforecasters": "62", + "numforecasts": "99", + "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 2 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/elicit-questions.csv b/data/elicit-questions.csv index 8931626..39d8fe9 100644 --- a/data/elicit-questions.csv +++ b/data/elicit-questions.csv @@ -1,352 +1,352 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" "Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5640462427745665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4359537572254335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,346,1 -"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8202597402597402,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17974025974025976,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,231,1 +"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8209913793103447,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17900862068965528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,232,1 "Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36962264150943397,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6303773584905661,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,159,1 "Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5289130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47108695652173915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,138,1 "Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.757280701754386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.242719298245614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,114,1 "The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333177570093458,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666822429906542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,214,1 "Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6183620689655173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38163793103448274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,116,1 +"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4249074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5750925925925926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,108,1 "How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5068067226890757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4931932773109243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,119,1 "Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,110,1 -"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4249074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5750925925925926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,108,1 "Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11789999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8821,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,100,1 "How vivid is your sound imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6116981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3883018867924528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,106,1 -"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28802083333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7119791666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,96,1 +"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2895876288659794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7104123711340207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,97,1 "Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4311607142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5688392857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,112,1 "There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5817721518987341,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4182278481012659,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,158,1 "How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25726190476190475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7427380952380953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,84,1 "How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25414634146341464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7458536585365854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,82,1 "Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2538095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7461904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,84,1 -"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1975862068965517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8024137931034483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,87,1 "How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7812790697674419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21872093023255812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,86,1 -"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8227500000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1772499999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,80,1 +"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1975862068965517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8024137931034483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,87,1 "How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5229113924050633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47708860759493665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,79,1 +"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8227500000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1772499999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,80,1 "How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3612658227848101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6387341772151899,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,79,1 "How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45592105263157895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5440789473684211,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,76,1 "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42764705882352944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5723529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,85,1 "Trump will win a second term","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.462027027027027,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.537972972972973,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,74,1 -"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3156060606060606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6843939393939393,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,66,1 "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24506666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7549333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,75,1 +"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3156060606060606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6843939393939393,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,66,1 "Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20""Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong""%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8951807228915662,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10481927710843375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,83,1 -"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04507692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9549230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,65,1 +"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04454545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9554545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,66,1 "Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6021951219512195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3978048780487805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,41,1 +"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,64,1 "By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5548648648648649,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44513513513513514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,37,1 -"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20682539682539683,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7931746031746032,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,63,1 "A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.687142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31285714285714294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,42,1 "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6111904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3888095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,42,1 +"The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2806382978723404,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7193617021276596,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1 "Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007941176470588234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920588235294118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 -"The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26866666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7313333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,45,1 +"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36911764705882355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6308823529411764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 "The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0303125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 """There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9709090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 -"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36911764705882355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6308823529411764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47382978723404257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261702127659574,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1 +"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,40,1 "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38967741935483874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6103225806451613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,31,1 "No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9027272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09727272727272729,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 -"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08806451612903227,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9119354838709677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,31,1 -"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5493617021276596,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45063829787234044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1 +"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08806451612903227,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9119354838709677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,31,1 "No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17874999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 "Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08678571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9132142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,28,1 -"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006764705882352942,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9932352941176471,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 -"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4023809523809524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5976190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,42,1 "Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10552631578947368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8944736842105263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,38,1 +"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4023809523809524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5976190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,42,1 "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.002307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9976923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006764705882352942,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9932352941176471,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018846153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9811538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 -"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2637037037037037,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7362962962962962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4684375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5315624999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 -"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5855882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41441176470588237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 -"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2439285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7560714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,28,1 -"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9030769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2637037037037037,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7362962962962962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07461538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9253846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5855882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41441176470588237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 +"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9030769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 "The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35119999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6488,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2439285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7560714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,28,1 +"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33909090909090905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6609090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 +"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8411111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15888888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6226923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37730769230769234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 -"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31120000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19347826086956524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8065217391304348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 -"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8411111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15888888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 -"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33909090909090905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6609090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 -"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3745833333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6254166666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 -"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20482758620689656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7951724137931034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 -"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7363999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31120000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7019047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2980952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 +"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20482758620689656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7951724137931034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 +"For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2885185185185185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7114814814814815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 +"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13119999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8688,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3745833333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6254166666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6084375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39156250000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5815384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,39,1 +"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8451515151515152,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1548484848484848,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.994090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.005909090909090975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 -"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07454545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9254545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 +"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7363999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3103225806451613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6896774193548387,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,31,1 +"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2782857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7217142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1 "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34127659574468083,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6587234042553192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1 "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15333333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2803846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7196153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 -"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 -"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8838095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21636363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7836363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 -"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2782857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7217142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1 "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8831818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 +"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07454545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9254545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 +"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8838095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04739130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9526086956521739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 -"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7484999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25150000000000006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5694285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4305714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1 +"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21636363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7836363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 +"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13249999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6031428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1 -"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29379310344827586,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7062068965517241,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 +"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5694285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4305714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1 +"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20""more%20dakka"",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20""more%20dakka""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20523809523809525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7947619047619048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 +"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 +"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02210526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9778947368421053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8313636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16863636363636358,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 -"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3638095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6361904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8088888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19111111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 -"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13249999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4704761904761905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5295238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02210526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9778947368421053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7243478260869566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2756521739130434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 -"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6434000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3565999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,50,1 +"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7484999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25150000000000006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 +"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3281481481481482,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6718518518518518,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.648,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.352,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,40,1 "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9668181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 -"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8795238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5177777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4822222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20""more%20dakka"",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20""more%20dakka""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.213,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3281481481481482,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6718518518518518,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 +"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6434000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3565999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,50,1 "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6754545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3245454545454546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 -"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8795238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6427777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35722222222222233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08388888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9161111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8395238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16047619047619055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4717391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5282608695652173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 -"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.017222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9827777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2161904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7838095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 -"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6933333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30666666666666675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009444444444444445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9905555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5177777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4822222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12789473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8721052631578947,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08388888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9161111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4717391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5282608695652173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26894736842105266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19105263157894736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8089473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0811764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9188235294117647,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35526315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6447368421052632,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.049,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7770588235294117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2229411764705883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9531578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04684210526315791,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2161904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7838095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 +"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.017222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9827777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009444444444444445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9905555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 +"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8395238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16047619047619055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 +"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6933333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30666666666666675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 "US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02235294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9776470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7770588235294117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2229411764705883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.049,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4288888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5711111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5777777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42222222222222217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5689655172413793,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 -"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 -"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9353333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06466666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9629411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6647058823529411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33529411764705885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.294375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.705625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5517647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44823529411764707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7394117647058823,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2605882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0811764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9188235294117647,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35526315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6447368421052632,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19105263157894736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8089473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9531578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04684210526315791,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.118125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.881875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 -"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.933125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06687500000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9353333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06466666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7811764705882354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21882352941176464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5852941176470589,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8291304347826087,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17086956521739127,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 -"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.926875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.073125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7394117647058823,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2605882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9629411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.294375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.705625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5517647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44823529411764707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6647058823529411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33529411764705885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43473684210526314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5652631578947369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.118125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.881875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5689655172413793,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 +"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5852941176470589,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.926875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.073125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.933125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06687500000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9017647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05941176470588236,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9405882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8717647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12823529411764711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17799999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11733333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8826666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8717647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12823529411764711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9214285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47388888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17394444444444446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8260555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8855,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11450000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 +"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3026315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6973684210526316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.111875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.888125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7178571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17394444444444446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8260555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47388888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9214285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 """by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08785714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9121428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9017647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3026315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6973684210526316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2764285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7235714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6271428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3728571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8461111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15388888888888885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40842105263157896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.591578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.040769230769230766,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9158333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,36,1 -"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1336842105263158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8663157894736842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7389473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2610526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9507692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5135714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.320625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6793750000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.853125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14687499999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7324999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 -"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8146153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4446153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5553846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 -"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3830769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6169230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 +"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11733333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8826666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7178571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 """The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40842105263157896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.591578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7389473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2610526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5135714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8461111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15388888888888885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4446153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5553846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.853125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14687499999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6271428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3728571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2978571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7021428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8146153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9507692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8457894736842105,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15421052631578946,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9158333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,36,1 +"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.320625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6793750000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2764285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7235714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.106875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.893125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1469230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8530769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11076923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8892307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.040769230769230766,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7324999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3830769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6169230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44153846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5584615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9235714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6315384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3684615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 -"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4607142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5392857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03833333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9616666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.027333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9726666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5107142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1469230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8530769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1336842105263158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8663157894736842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 """Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33461538461538465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8683333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1316666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8583333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3707692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6292307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.696923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.303076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24333333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6083333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3358333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6641666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013076923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9869230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46692307692307694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.533076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8407142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.027333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9726666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9228571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007931034482758621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920689655172413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 -"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9535714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21076923076923082,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49242424242424243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5075757575757576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 -"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5246666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4753333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5689473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08923076923076924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28428571428571425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7157142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2809090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7190909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5557142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4442857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7783333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21272727272727274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7872727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5407692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23377083333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7662291666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 -"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 -"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4081818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5918181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 -"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9646153846153847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7516666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2483333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 -"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6679999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.128,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10181818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8981818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6592857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34071428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26272727272727275,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7372727272727273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4153846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9235714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007931034482758621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920689655172413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 +"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6315384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3684615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8407142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24333333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5107142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21076923076923082,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4607142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5392857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5246666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4753333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3707692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6292307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03833333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9616666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5689473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3358333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6641666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8583333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013076923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9869230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9535714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46692307692307694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.533076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.696923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.303076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6083333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9228571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8683333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1316666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.140625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.859375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9458333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28428571428571425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7157142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6778571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32214285714285706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23377083333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7662291666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 +"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5621428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43785714285714283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10285714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8971428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4153846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6481818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3518181818181819,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7516666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2483333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6136363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5557142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4442857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6592857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34071428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6866666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6836363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8921428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10285714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8971428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26272727272727275,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7372727272727273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4081818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5918181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 +"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6679999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9458333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4314285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.140625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.859375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.543076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.024166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9758333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5269230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47307692307692306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6136363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6481818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3518181818181819,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44083333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5591666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.016470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9835294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 +"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08923076923076924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8921428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21272727272727274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7872727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5407692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7783333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44083333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5591666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7961538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.024166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9758333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.543076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9623076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10181818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8981818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 "Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4753846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5246153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6778571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32214285714285706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7927272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2809090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7190909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.016470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9835294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 +"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.0675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9646153846153847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45307692307692304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.546923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31384615384615383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6861538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7091666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7961538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9623076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5621428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43785714285714283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31384615384615383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6861538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45307692307692304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.546923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7927272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.0675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5269230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47307692307692306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09357142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9064285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.750909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24909090909090903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.836875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16312499999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2907692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7092307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8908333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.467,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5329999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7221428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2963636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 "We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17923076923076922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8207692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3463636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6536363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9290909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21099999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8790909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9258333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.750909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24909090909090903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8691666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.261,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8908333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13142857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7361538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9042857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44399999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.467,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5329999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7221428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24600000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21099999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.261,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.060909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9390909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24600000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6910000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8691666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9042857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9863636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6653846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2963636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6054545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7791666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17300000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9863636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6910000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7361538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6054545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44166666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5583333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9290909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.060909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9390909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08857142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9114285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8790909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6653846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7791666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3463636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6536363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09357142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9064285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2907692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7092307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7709999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2290000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9258333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44166666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5583333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08857142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9114285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17300000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44399999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 \ No newline at end of file +""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/elicit-questions.json b/data/elicit-questions.json index 67f1496..9fc2458 100644 --- a/data/elicit-questions.json +++ b/data/elicit-questions.json @@ -26,17 +26,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8202597402597402, + "probability": 0.8209913793103447, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17974025974025976, + "probability": 0.17900862068965528, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 231, - "numforecasters": 123, + "numforecasts": 232, + "numforecasters": 124, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -139,6 +139,26 @@ "numforecasters": 87, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4249074074074074, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5750925925925926, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 108, + "numforecasters": 77, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "How vivid is your visual imagination?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -179,26 +199,6 @@ "numforecasters": 77, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4249074074074074, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5750925925925926, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 108, - "numforecasters": 77, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -246,16 +246,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28802083333333334, + "probability": 0.2895876288659794, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7119791666666666, + "probability": 0.7104123711340207, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 96, + "numforecasts": 97, "numforecasters": 73, "stars": 1 }, @@ -359,26 +359,6 @@ "numforecasters": 67, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1975862068965517, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8024137931034483, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 87, - "numforecasters": 66, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "How frequently do you think in words?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -400,23 +380,23 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Do you have an internal monologue?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8227500000000001, + "probability": 0.1975862068965517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1772499999999999, + "probability": 0.8024137931034483, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 80, - "numforecasters": 63, + "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasters": 66, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -439,6 +419,26 @@ "numforecasters": 63, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Do you have an internal monologue?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8227500000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.1772499999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasters": 63, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "How vivid is your touch imagination?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -519,26 +519,6 @@ "numforecasters": 54, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3156060606060606, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6843939393939393, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 66, - "numforecasters": 52, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -559,6 +539,26 @@ "numforecasters": 52, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3156060606060606, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6843939393939393, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasters": 52, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Will the post \"Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong\" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20\"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong\"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -586,17 +586,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04507692307692308, + "probability": 0.04454545454545454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9549230769230769, + "probability": 0.9554545454545454, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 65, - "numforecasters": 38, + "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasters": 39, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -619,6 +619,26 @@ "numforecasters": 37, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 64, + "numforecasters": 35, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -639,26 +659,6 @@ "numforecasters": 35, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20682539682539683, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7931746031746032, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 63, - "numforecasters": 34, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -699,6 +699,26 @@ "numforecasters": 33, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2806382978723404, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7193617021276596, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasters": 32, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -720,23 +740,23 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26866666666666666, + "probability": 0.36911764705882355, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7313333333333334, + "probability": 0.6308823529411764, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 45, - "numforecasters": 31, + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 29, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -779,26 +799,6 @@ "numforecasters": 29, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36911764705882355, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6308823529411764, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 29, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -819,6 +819,26 @@ "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 28, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -879,46 +899,6 @@ "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08806451612903227, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9119354838709677, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 31, - "numforecasters": 28, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 28, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -939,6 +919,26 @@ "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08806451612903227, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9119354838709677, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasters": 28, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -980,22 +980,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "California will secede from the United States before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Trump wins Nobel", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.006764705882352942, + "probability": 0.10552631578947368, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9932352941176471, + "probability": 0.8944736842105263, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 38, "numforecasters": 26, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1019,26 +1019,6 @@ "numforecasters": 26, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Trump wins Nobel", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10552631578947368, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8944736842105263, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 38, - "numforecasters": 26, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1059,6 +1039,26 @@ "numforecasters": 26, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "California will secede from the United States before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.006764705882352942, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9932352941176471, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 26, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1079,6 +1079,26 @@ "numforecasters": 25, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4684375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5315624999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasters": 24, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "...be an environmental disaster.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1100,23 +1120,23 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4684375, + "probability": 0.07461538461538461, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5315624999999999, + "probability": 0.9253846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 32, - "numforecasters": 24, + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -1139,26 +1159,6 @@ "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2439285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7560714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 28, - "numforecasters": 23, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1179,26 +1179,6 @@ "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07461538461538461, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9253846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 23, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1219,6 +1199,66 @@ "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2439285714285714, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7560714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasters": 23, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33909090909090905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6609090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasters": 22, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8411111111111111, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15888888888888886, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasters": 22, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1239,26 +1279,6 @@ "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6888, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31120000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1300,62 +1320,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8411111111111111, + "probability": 0.6888, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15888888888888886, + "probability": 0.31120000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 25, "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33909090909090905, + "probability": 0.7019047619047619, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6609090909090909, + "probability": 0.2980952380952381, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 33, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3745833333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6254166666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 21, "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1380,18 +1380,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2636, + "probability": 0.2885185185185185, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7363999999999999, + "probability": 0.7114814814814815, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13119999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8688, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1400,22 +1420,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7019047619047619, + "probability": 0.3745833333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2980952380952381, + "probability": 0.6254166666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 24, "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1459,6 +1479,26 @@ "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8451515151515152, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.1548484848484848, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1480,22 +1520,62 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07454545454545454, + "probability": 0.2636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9254545454545454, + "probability": 0.7363999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3103225806451613, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6896774193548387, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2782857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7217142857142858, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 35, "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1540,42 +1620,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2803846153846154, + "probability": 0.11681818181818182, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7196153846153845, + "probability": 0.8831818181818182, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 22, "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13625, + "probability": 0.07454545454545454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86375, + "probability": 0.9254545454545454, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 22, "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1599,66 +1679,6 @@ "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21636363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7836363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2782857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7217142857142858, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 35, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11681818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8831818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1680,42 +1700,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7484999999999999, + "probability": 0.21636363636363637, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25150000000000006, + "probability": 0.7836363636363637, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 19, + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5694285714285714, + "probability": 0.8675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4305714285714286, + "probability": 0.13249999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasts": 24, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1740,22 +1760,82 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29379310344827586, + "probability": 0.5694285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7062068965517241, + "probability": 0.4305714285714286, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20523809523809525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7947619047619048, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02210526315789474, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9778947368421053, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1779,26 +1859,6 @@ "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.542, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45799999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1879,26 +1939,6 @@ "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1919,26 +1959,6 @@ "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13249999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 24, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1960,22 +1980,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02210526315789474, + "probability": 0.542, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9778947368421053, + "probability": 0.45799999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 20, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2000,22 +2020,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6434000000000001, + "probability": 0.7484999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3565999999999999, + "probability": 0.25150000000000006, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20\"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true\".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3281481481481482, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6718518518518518, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 27, "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2060,82 +2100,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12047619047619047, + "probability": 0.6434000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8795238095238095, + "probability": 0.3565999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5177777777777778, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4822222222222222, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.213, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.787, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20\"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true\".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3281481481481482, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6718518518518518, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 50, "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2160,22 +2140,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4026923076923077, + "probability": 0.12047619047619047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5973076923076923, + "probability": 0.8795238095238095, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 21, "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2200,22 +2180,62 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3095, + "probability": 0.4026923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6905, + "probability": 0.5973076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5177777777777778, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4822222222222222, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12789473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8721052631578947, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2239,26 +2259,6 @@ "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8395238095238095, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16047619047619055, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2280,22 +2280,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - 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It will be an International establishment.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.049, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.951, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2539,66 +2499,6 @@ "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9531578947368421, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.04684210526315791, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "US presidents term limits abolished", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02235294117647059, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9776470588235294, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2619,6 +2519,26 @@ "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.049, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.951, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2660,162 +2580,122 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5689655172413793, + "probability": 0.0811764705882353, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - 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"numforecasters": 15, + "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5517647058823529, + "probability": 0.118125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44823529411764707, + "probability": 0.881875, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7394117647058823, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2605882352941177, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2840,42 +2720,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1448, + "probability": 0.9353333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8552, + "probability": 0.06466666666666665, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.933125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06687500000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2920,18 +2780,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41470588235294115, + "probability": 0.7394117647058823, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5852941176470589, + "probability": 0.2605882352941177, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2940,38 +2800,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8291304347826087, + "probability": 0.03705882352941177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17086956521739127, + "probability": 0.9629411764705882, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.926875, + "probability": 0.294375, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.073125, + "probability": 0.705625, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2979,6 +2839,86 @@ "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1448, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8552, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5517647058823529, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44823529411764707, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6647058823529411, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33529411764705885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5936, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4064, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3000,18 +2940,58 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.118125, + "probability": 0.5689655172413793, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.881875, + "probability": 0.43103448275862066, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41470588235294115, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5852941176470589, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.926875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.073125, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3020,22 +3000,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "probability": 0.933125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "probability": 0.06687500000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09823529411764706, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9017647058823529, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3059,46 +3059,6 @@ "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8717647058823529, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12823529411764711, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3119,186 +3079,6 @@ "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11733333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8826666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.111875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.888125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28214285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7178571428571429, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17394444444444446, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8260555555555555, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47388888888888886, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5261111111111112, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07857142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9214285714285715, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.062, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.938, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3320,38 +3100,58 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0955, + "probability": 0.8717647058823529, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9045, + "probability": 0.12823529411764711, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08785714285714287, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9121428571428571, + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07857142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9214285714285715, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3360,22 +3160,62 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09823529411764706, + "probability": 0.47388888888888886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9017647058823529, + "probability": 0.5261111111111112, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17394444444444446, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8260555555555555, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8855, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.11450000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3400,58 +3240,198 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2764285714285714, + "probability": 0.111875, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7235714285714285, + "probability": 0.888125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.062, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.938, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08785714285714287, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9121428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 13, + "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6271428571428571, + "probability": 0.0955, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3728571428571429, + "probability": 0.9045, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11733333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8826666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 13, + "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05333333333333333, + "probability": 0.09466666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9466666666666667, + "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28214285714285714, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7178571428571429, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4026666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5973333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3460,18 +3440,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "ETI is AGI", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8461111111111111, + "probability": 0.29333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15388888888888885, + "probability": 0.7066666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3499,66 +3479,6 @@ "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.040769230769230766, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9592307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "10 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08416666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9158333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 36, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1336842105263158, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8663157894736842, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3579,46 +3499,6 @@ "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7066666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04923076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9507692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3640,18 +3520,58 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "ETI is AGI", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.320625, + "probability": 0.8461111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6793750000000001, + "probability": 0.15388888888888885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4446153846153846, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5553846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.853125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.14687499999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3679,26 +3599,6 @@ "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.853125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14687499999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3720,82 +3620,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2675, + "probability": 0.6271428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7324999999999999, + "probability": 0.3728571428571429, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06625, + "probability": 0.2978571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.93375, + "probability": 0.7021428571428572, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 32, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09466666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9053333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8538461538461538, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3820,78 +3680,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3375, + "probability": 0.09466666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4446153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5553846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3830769230769231, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6169230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4026666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5973333333333333, + "probability": 0.9053333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3900,18 +3700,118 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2978571428571428, + "probability": 0.04923076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7021428571428572, + "probability": 0.9507692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8457894736842105, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15421052631578946, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "10 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08416666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9158333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.320625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6793750000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9466666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2764285714285714, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7235714285714285, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3940,22 +3840,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1469230769230769, + "probability": 0.06625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8530769230769231, + "probability": 0.93375, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 32, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3979,6 +3879,86 @@ "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.040769230769230766, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9592307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7324999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3830769230769231, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6169230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3999,6 +3979,166 @@ "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1469230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8530769230769231, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1336842105263158, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8663157894736842, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8538461538461538, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6653846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33461538461538465, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.027333333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9726666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3666666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49242424242424243, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5075757575757576, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4019,6 +4159,46 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "100 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.007931034482758621, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9920689655172413, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4040,18 +4220,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4607142857142857, + "probability": 0.15928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5392857142857144, + "probability": 0.8407142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4080,18 +4260,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.24333333333333332, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.7566666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4099,106 +4279,6 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03833333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9616666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.027333333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9726666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.696, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4220,18 +4300,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6653846153846154, + "probability": 0.304, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33461538461538465, + "probability": 0.696, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7892307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21076923076923082, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4240,18 +4340,158 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8683333333333333, + "probability": 0.4607142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1316666666666667, + "probability": 0.5392857142857144, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5246666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4753333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3707692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6292307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03833333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9616666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4310526315789474, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5689473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2025, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7975, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3358333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6641666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8175, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4280,18 +4520,58 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - 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", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23377083333333332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7662291666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 24, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4081818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5918181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03538461538461538, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9646153846153847, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7516666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2483333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2888, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7112, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6679999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.872, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.128, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10181818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8981818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6592857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.34071428571428575, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26272727272727275, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7372727272727273, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4153846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5846153846153845, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, @@ -5120,18 +4780,198 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05416666666666667, + "probability": 0.28428571428571425, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9458333333333333, + "probability": 0.7157142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6778571428571429, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32214285714285706, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.23377083333333332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7662291666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5621428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43785714285714283, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4307692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5692307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.40909090909090906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10285714285714287, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8971428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4153846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5846153846153845, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6481818181818181, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3518181818181819, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7516666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2483333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5140,18 +4980,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.38636363636363635, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.6136363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5159,6 +4999,66 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.57, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5557142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4442857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6592857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.34071428571428575, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5200,18 +5100,138 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10785714285714286, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8921428571428571, + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26272727272727275, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7372727272727273, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2888, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7112, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4081818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5918181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6679999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5220,22 +5240,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10285714285714287, + "probability": 0.05416666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8971428571428571, + "probability": 0.9458333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, @@ -5259,6 +5279,126 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08923076923076924, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9107692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13666666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8633333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10785714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8921428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21272727272727274, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7872727272727272, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4592307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5407692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7783333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.22166666666666668, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5280,38 +5420,58 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "'President Mike Pence'", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.140625, + "probability": 0.16333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.859375, + "probability": 0.8366666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45692307692307693, + "probability": 0.44083333333333335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.543076923076923, + "probability": 0.5591666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20384615384615384, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7961538461538462, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5340,38 +5500,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.40909090909090906, + "probability": 0.45692307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5269230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47307692307692306, + "probability": 0.543076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5380,118 +5520,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - 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"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44083333333333335, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5591666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "50 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.016470588235294115, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9835294117647059, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - 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"title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6778571428571429, + "probability": 0.20727272727272728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - 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", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2366666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7633333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9325, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.0675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03538461538461538, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9646153846153847, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45307692307692304, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.546923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31384615384615383, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6861538461538461, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, @@ -5580,18 +5780,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20384615384615384, + "probability": 0.5269230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7961538461538462, + "probability": 0.47307692307692306, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5599,186 +5799,6 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2475, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7525, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03769230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9623076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5621428571428572, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43785714285714283, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31384615384615383, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6861538461538461, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45307692307692304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.546923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20727272727272728, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7927272727272727, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9325, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.0675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2366666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7633333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5800,22 +5820,122 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09357142857142858, + "probability": 0.2963636363636364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9064285714285714, + "probability": 0.7036363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6036363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39636363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17923076923076922, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8207692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07416666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9258333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11461538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8853846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, @@ -5840,118 +5960,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.025, + "probability": 0.13083333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.975, + "probability": 0.8691666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.836875, + "probability": 0.261, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16312499999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4107692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5892307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2907692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7092307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.995, + "probability": 0.739, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5979,26 +6019,6 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.467, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5329999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6019,6 +6039,106 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13142857142857142, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8685714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09571428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9042857142857142, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44399999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.467, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5329999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6040,78 +6160,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17923076923076922, + "probability": 0.005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8207692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3463636363636363, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6536363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07090909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9290909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.413, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.587, + "probability": 0.995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6120,242 +6180,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3681818181818182, + "probability": 0.7066666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6318181818181818, + "probability": 0.29333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.789, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21099999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12090909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8790909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13142857142857142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8685714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26384615384615384, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7361538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.802, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.261, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.739, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.060909090909090906, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9390909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.217, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.783, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11461538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8853846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6036363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39636363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11461538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8853846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, @@ -6380,298 +6220,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5272727272727272, + "probability": 0.789, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4727272727272728, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.309, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6910000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13083333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8691666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09571428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9042857142857142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.204, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.796, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.013636363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9863636363636363, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3346153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6653846153846155, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2963636363636364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7036363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39454545454545453, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6054545454545455, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22083333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7791666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.155, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.845, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.113, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.887, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7709999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2290000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07416666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9258333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.21099999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6700,78 +6260,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44166666666666665, + "probability": 0.198, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5583333333333333, + "probability": 0.802, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7066666666666667, + "probability": 0.113, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08857142857142858, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9114285714285715, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.042, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.958, + "probability": 0.887, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6800,23 +6320,503 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.556, + "probability": 0.013636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44399999999999995, + "probability": 0.9863636363636363, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.309, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6910000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5272727272727272, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4727272727272728, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + 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all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26384615384615384, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7361538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39454545454545453, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6054545454545455, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44166666666666665, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5583333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07090909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + 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This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.060909090909090906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9390909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08857142857142858, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 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"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3346153846153846, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6653846153846155, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.413, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.587, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22083333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7791666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3681818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6318181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3463636363636363, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6536363636363637, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4107692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5892307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09357142857142858, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9064285714285714, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2907692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7092307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7709999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2290000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11461538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8853846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.155, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.845, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/foretold-questions.csv b/data/foretold-questions.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a3a92dd --- /dev/null +++ b/data/foretold-questions.csv @@ -0,0 +1,93 @@ +"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" +"Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content 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housing?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5077bdb-25ff-4027-9a41-3dd5e78e08ac","Foretold","[]","",4.5,2 +"Will SB 592 clear the California state Assembly?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d97e690d-baeb-4e45-bf48-dca41535e1e1","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30500000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",2,2 +"5 cities with at least 50k population implement approval voting by 2022","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5ef0f81-18c4-42fa-864e-e8dc0d9ea8d6","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.245,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.755,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",7.5,2 +"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2023?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/efbd2e5c-185d-451b-a54a-72be1a302a10","Foretold","[]","",2,2 +"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/f69988cc-f2c2-4dc9-aca0-2aae01a2606d","Foretold","[]","",4,2 +"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/862c4482-b77e-49bd-89e6-c28bd664f0f7","Foretold","[]","",7,2 +"What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to the University of Oxford?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51eaef45-463b-4c85-bd6c-62e267bfbadd","Foretold","[]","",1,2 +"What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to UC Berkeley?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/bfdeb28d-deb4-44b8-91e0-a840b5564620","Foretold","[]","",1,2 +"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to Global Health and Development between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/feff8be7-0a44-48d7-99a2-0015faa64c14","Foretold","[]","",2,2 +"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to U.S. policy between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ee8e154d-c7d8-4337-905d-0fd5e1fdd924","Foretold","[]","",2,2 +"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/8ae516ed-5d4d-4008-bcf8-d86e4ae814d6","Foretold","[]","",15,2 +"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to scientific research between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dfc6e8e4-0a36-4e57-b3d1-004fce0bbd4d","Foretold","[]","",3,2 +"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to AI safety between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/cb1d4afc-7200-48b3-aa75-06e0b4d451b4","Foretold","[]","",2,2 +"What will the Metaculus community median probability for AI catastrophe by 2100 be in 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b9034665-5ab1-44df-9af3-0a954759b3df","Foretold","[]","",5,2 +"What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to MIRI?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7265aead-923a-4a61-957a-be846741a889","Foretold","[]","",6,2 +"How many of Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Christiano, Nate Soares, and Dario Amodei will still be working on AI safety by the end of 2029?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0b2ff995-6b72-49d3-90b6-e5ba9ebb5781","Foretold","[]","",6.5,2 +"Will MIRI still exist in 2023?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6fbca8b0-740b-4c9e-b0cb-aa5bdc30a4ba","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9233333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",7,2 +"How many nuclear warheads will the US have in 2029?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b76f74a0-c3a0-4530-b27c-e462ef593893","Foretold","[]","",2,2 +"Will Good Policies still be running at the end of 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1a5a05b6-0dc7-4725-b559-e732d394ed28","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",2,2 +"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1e42ecfd-5117-4e91-9eb8-f27920029131","Foretold","[]","",8,2 +"How many papers will cite ""Embedded Agency"" by Demski, A. and Garrabrant, S. at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/2336bbb0-538b-44c4-a48d-04c9c5e842de","Foretold","[]","",7,2 +"What percentage of grant dollars from the Global Health and Development EA Fund distributed in 2020 will go towards deworming organisations?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7fd75c13-a2ed-4e76-9d44-09867d06ca5a","Foretold","[]","",3,2 +"When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional whole pieces of farmed animal muscle tissue have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a71cd5b8-fdcf-45f7-9168-822e11c0e406","Foretold","[]","",2.5,2 +"When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional ground meats will have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/35caf084-9436-49c3-a046-eea6a8c8bf7a","Foretold","[]","",4,2 +"When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional acellular animal products have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/089b42c8-ab9d-420c-9088-899b33df9efc","Foretold","[]","",5,2 +"What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dc8c4beb-2f68-40e6-88e0-7fef557ef534","Foretold","[]","",4,2 +"What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1244c18b-8b0d-45a1-9d66-97f8f6c7c60b","Foretold","[]","",5,2 +"What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a547db8c-3906-43d6-afa8-138b9406ec53","Foretold","[]","",4,2 +"Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1b3674e6-a036-4887-80bb-fea8f24ff118","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5,2 +"Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/eedcf35c-1acc-45c6-9600-36c9a6efd53a","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5.5,2 +"Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/294d918c-99fb-4bb8-a162-2b248b328789","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5,2 +"Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/605b7ed3-fd73-4979-8252-a86dcb4dc04a","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5033333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5,2 +"Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/563268d2-81b3-4bab-9ef5-c7a0a731a743","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7866666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21333333333333326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5,2 +"Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d05a9b4b-317e-419b-acdd-9f1945f2372a","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14666666666666672,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5.5,2 +"Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6d2dc33f-87d3-4817-8577-8e8643c7b94b","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23333333333333328,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5,2 +"Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51970fcb-bc3d-4be6-aa7a-41ca9eef0ff3","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16666666666666674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5.5,2 +"What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dd958638-c4fd-4b91-831c-ca3289ddc4ee","Foretold","[]","",6,2 +"What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/61187fa6-4bb5-42ab-acb5-c3a68e109353","Foretold","[]","",4,2 +"What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/aa037535-a09e-464e-bc64-90964df4cf9f","Foretold","[]","",5,2 +"At the end of 2021, will the most cost-effective charity recommended by Givewell be a deworming charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/4f960f70-1058-420e-b7de-bc432888fa1e","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17500000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",2,2 +"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/02f00f76-d8d6-4f57-b033-ff849062538b","Foretold","[]","",5,2 +"At the end of 2022, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6cbf55b8-42cd-4f27-b339-adc9dff43275","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",6,2 +"At the end of 2021, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/52faee5b-2de3-433a-bd92-538b5696bcb8","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42500000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5,2 +"At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7d8556b6-7fbb-4bbe-ba42-db8911babe3f","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",2,2 +"Will there be more new COVID-19 cases this year than new HIV infections?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/8f14e026-51a8-4fca-920f-d29b37f61763","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",8,2 +"At the end of the outbreak, what will the ratio (deaths)/(confirmed cases) be?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/d093d140-8c5a-4ffd-a4ad-ec0edcc7cb7d","Foretold","[]","",15,2 +"Will the current outbreak result in a global disaster (>50 million deaths resulting from the pathogen within 1 year)?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/f70dd133-ebb8-4201-88a8-09f6b94eed78","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",9.5,2 +"At the end of the outbreak, how many confirmed cases?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/b533b5bf-723d-40af-b558-daf971097507","Foretold","[]","",27,2 +"At the end of the outbreak, how many deaths?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/984cd816-3284-4906-91f5-3b1446e47463","Foretold","[]","",49.5,2 +"When will the outbreak end?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/95268867-0601-4377-920c-6a26618e2a70","Foretold","[]","",25.5,2 +"By mid-2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b9bfcc0b-cd82-4904-903d-566ff57ed3b4","Foretold","[]","",2,2 +"By mid-2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/380a3ab8-8b05-42f6-80b9-4217b04fd930","Foretold","[]","",2,2 +"By mid-2021, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b5914f95-593d-4217-b862-b2ab5d0d51f8","Foretold","[]","",3.5,2 +"How well do these two questions capture something significant about algorithmic progress?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/74586dc1-fd77-4b49-bbcb-b40ae0db09f8","Foretold","[]","",3,2 +"By 2023, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/f8c595c5-dd7e-4bb6-9650-0de3625b50eb","Foretold","[]","",1,2 +"By 2022, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b93bc8f1-5798-43b5-a0f6-26c8f6f0c7c7","Foretold","[]","",1,2 +"By 2021, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/ef463b8f-50ef-4e5f-93de-fbe3abd53570","Foretold","[]","",1,2 +"By mid-2023, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/98933e35-e4ed-4958-a36a-3d4154900bce","Foretold","[]","",1,2 +"By mid-2022, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/c5b3dc97-4b67-46c5-93ac-2905113df000","Foretold","[]","",1,2 +"By mid-2021, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/2c6253e6-8425-475c-90ba-ff4ab82b5483","Foretold","[]","",1,2 +"How many years from now (Sep 2019) will it take to Physically assemble any LEGO set given the pieces and instructions, using specialized robotics hardware?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/69bf7756-ddb7-4d5c-b5c2-a223cffffe7d","Foretold","[]","",4.5,2 +"By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/70033fc2-af6e-4200-8aae-6d970a3e57ea","Foretold","[]","",3.5,2 +"By mid-2020, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/75e157b5-ffc1-4b1b-9eda-7997dac7e20b","Foretold","[]","",5,2 +"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b1949fbe-ce22-46d9-83a1-a5c2c53cd826","Foretold","[]","",6.5,2 +"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b73619d7-8e1e-41a6-9e9f-6cfe22a1dad1","Foretold","[]","",3,2 +"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2023?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3b91112d-19e3-486b-8ecc-ba9a7a372c09","Foretold","[]","",3,2 +"If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a minority government?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2465e95a-abc4-45a2-8ab3-855ecf295ded","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",1,2 +"If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a majority government?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8289150f-cfec-4327-b981-5fc0d624eb65","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",1,2 +"How many seats will Labour win the in the next general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/16581899-ae00-44e9-9d17-602ca38c6878","Foretold","[]","",1,2 +"Will Labour win the next election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/4e3274f7-c1b0-4a70-80ae-c931c87dca8d","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",7,2 +"Will Conservatives win the next election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/ff1f3bd2-3939-4414-b1cb-817b92ed3786","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",9.5,2 +"If Boris Johnson is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/cb081989-7005-4dea-8288-eeb54b5e8bd6","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",2,2 +"If Sajid Javid is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general 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Brexit?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/04a10cb2-d13f-4af7-8b70-12675dc25e9d", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 3.5, + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "When will the next UK general election be?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3165d0d1-547c-4104-8eb7-3c7508298b8d", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 4, + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a9bd15c4-95dd-49eb-8a3d-f546209bd444", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "If Keir Starmer is leader of Labour in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/e06b7c2f-a385-4c3c-9fa9-00787ac6aed3", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11.5, + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a second Brexit referendum announced before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2461fab4-c594-49fd-9b2a-acdfc52356ba", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 5, + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "What will be the tuition fee cap for UK students in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fbc91180-f338-449d-a795-234ac42854ec", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 3, + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "If there is a soft Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f3d44e2b-4d2a-47bd-acbd-61cab5e6a126", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "If there is a hard Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8221741f-ac27-4651-bf2c-7a887fc82313", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 3, + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "What will be mean UK broadband download speeds in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fb8780cd-e2b3-4435-bf50-c46fed1db5a8", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 3, + "stars": 2 + } +] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv b/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv index d2fe131..8c3f61f 100644 --- a/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv +++ b/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv @@ -1,14 +1,14 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" -"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.",,4 -"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported as of 31 March 2021?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Fewer than 360,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 360,000 and 410,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 410,000 but less than 470,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 470,000 and 540,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 540,000"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.The outcome will be determined based on reporting provided by Johns Hopkins of total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US through and including 31 March 2021.",,4 -"As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Less than 275,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 300,000 but less than 350,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as ""next waves"" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.",,4 -"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to recover from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.",,4 -"What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""The Games will begin"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be postponed again by more than a day"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be cancelled"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Games of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in Tokyo. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been postponed to 23 July 2021. Public opinion in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.",,4 +"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.",,4 +"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported as of 31 March 2021?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Fewer than 360,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 360,000 and 410,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 410,000 but less than 470,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 470,000 and 540,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 540,000"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.The outcome will be determined based on reporting provided by Johns Hopkins of total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US through and including 31 March 2021.",,4 +"As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Less than 275,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 300,000 but less than 350,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as ""next waves"" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.",,4 +"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to recover from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.",,4 +"What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""The Games will begin"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be postponed again by more than a day"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be cancelled"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Games of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in Tokyo. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been postponed to 23 July 2021. Public opinion in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.",,4 "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. The FDA has authorized Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here and here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).",,4 -"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 -"How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Fewer than 200 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., here, here, here). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.",,4 -"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Less than 23%"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 23% and 27%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 27%"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In its 2020 report, The Conference Board reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed board members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices report. ",,4 -"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Lower by more than 8%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive "",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% "",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 4%"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.",,4 -"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""At or below 2020 levels"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 100%"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 100%"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Interest in sustainable sector investment has been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using data from Morningstar for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021.",,4 -"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ",,4 -"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the ONS reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.",,4 \ No newline at end of file +"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4 +"How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Fewer than 200 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., here, here, here). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.",,4 +"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Less than 23%"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 23% and 27%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 27%"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In its 2020 report, The Conference Board reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed board members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices report. ",,4 +"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Lower by more than 8%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive "",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% "",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 4%"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.",,4 +"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""At or below 2020 levels"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 100%"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 100%"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Interest in sustainable sector investment has been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using data from Morningstar for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021.",,4 +"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ",,4 +"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the ONS reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.",,4 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json index 2574347..428135a 100644 --- a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json +++ b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json @@ -7,22 +7,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -56,12 +56,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 470,000 and 540,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 540,000", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -71,7 +71,7 @@ "title": "As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as \"next waves\" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.", + "description": "The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as \"next waves\" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.", "options": [ { "name": "Less than 275,000", @@ -109,7 +109,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -119,17 +119,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -143,7 +143,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "The Games will begin", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -153,7 +153,7 @@ }, { "name": "The Games will be cancelled", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -205,7 +205,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -215,7 +215,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -244,12 +244,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -268,12 +268,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 23%", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -292,7 +292,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lower by more than 8%", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -302,12 +302,12 @@ }, { "name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -331,12 +331,12 @@ }, { "name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher by more than 100%", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -355,7 +355,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -365,7 +365,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -389,7 +389,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -399,7 +399,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 30%", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv index 3377394..6a540e1 100644 --- a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv +++ b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv @@ -1,312 +1,321 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" -"Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the ""Data for all countries"" spreadsheet under the ""Excel file"" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (""Share of GDP sheet,"" cell BU99). -","62",3 -"Will France grant the China Global Television Network (CGTN) a license to broadcast in France before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1950-will-france-grant-the-china-global-television-network-cgtn-a-license-to-broadcast-in-france-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In February 2021, the UK Office of Communications (Ofcom) revoked CGTN’s license to broadcast in the country, therefore cutting its access to other countries in Europe ([Ofcom](https://www.ofcom.org.uk/about-ofcom/latest/media/media-releases/2021/ofcom-revokes-cgtn-licence-to-broadcast-in-uk), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/chinas-cgtn-may-no-longer-broadcast-in-germany-after-uk-row/a-56550247), [Council of Europe](https://www.coe.int/en/web/conventions/full-list/-/conventions/treaty/132/signatures?p_auth=TlFV50gT) [not the EU]). The Financial Times has reported that CGTN approached French regulators in December 2020 about seeking a license to broadcast in France, which could return CGTN to the UK and elsewhere ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/c2948fa5-4f3a-4824-87c2-83b4d4152c0e), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-france-cgtn/chinas-state-broadcaster-applies-to-france-for-right-to-air-in-europe-ft-idUSFWN2KP1N7), [Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/china-global-television-network-cgtn-applies-french-license/)). The date a license would take effect would be immaterial. -","29",3 -"Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2 or more"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)). -","32",3 -"Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)). -","148",3 -"For how many weeks will Adam Grant's ""Think Again"" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 8"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 13"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14 and 18"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Author Adam Grant's latest book, ""Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,"" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)). +"How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 15,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' ""COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries"" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, ""previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed"" and ""previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,"" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are ""previous day"" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. +","6",3 +"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 100,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""900,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. +","23",3 +"How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 70,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 115,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. +","42",3 +"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. +","24",3 +"Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the ""Data for all countries"" spreadsheet under the ""Excel file"" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (""Share of GDP sheet,"" cell BU99). +NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022. +","75",3 +"Will France grant the China Global Television Network (CGTN) a license to broadcast in France before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1950-will-france-grant-the-china-global-television-network-cgtn-a-license-to-broadcast-in-france-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In February 2021, the UK Office of Communications (Ofcom) revoked CGTN’s license to broadcast in the country, therefore cutting its access to other countries in Europe ([Ofcom](https://www.ofcom.org.uk/about-ofcom/latest/media/media-releases/2021/ofcom-revokes-cgtn-licence-to-broadcast-in-uk), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/chinas-cgtn-may-no-longer-broadcast-in-germany-after-uk-row/a-56550247), [Council of Europe](https://www.coe.int/en/web/conventions/full-list/-/conventions/treaty/132/signatures?p_auth=TlFV50gT) [not the EU]). The Financial Times has reported that CGTN approached French regulators in December 2020 about seeking a license to broadcast in France, which could return CGTN to the UK and elsewhere ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/c2948fa5-4f3a-4824-87c2-83b4d4152c0e), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-france-cgtn/chinas-state-broadcaster-applies-to-france-for-right-to-air-in-europe-ft-idUSFWN2KP1N7), [Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/china-global-television-network-cgtn-applies-french-license/)). The date a license would take effect would be immaterial. +","46",3 +"Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2 or more"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)). +","41",3 +"Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)). +","184",3 +"For how many weeks will Adam Grant's ""Think Again"" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 8"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 13"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14 and 18"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Author Adam Grant's latest book, ""Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,"" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)). NOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count. -","96",3 -"Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8). -","120",3 +","112",3 +"Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8). +","145",3 "In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)). -","70",3 -"How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks. -","82",3 -"What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $0.50"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721. -","38",3 -"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)). -","82",3 -"What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)). -","59",3 -"Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and Newsom will be recalled"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself. -","68",3 -"Will be the end-of-day price of a Dogecoin on 15 March 2021 be higher as compared to the end-of-day price on 15 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1938-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-a-dogecoin-on-15-march-2021-be-higher-as-compared-to-the-end-of-day-price-on-15-february-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Originally created as a joke, the Dogecoin cryptocurrency has seen an incredible rise in value due to pushes made on Reddit and elsewhere ([Dogecoin](https://dogecoin.com/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-11/dogecoin-s-creator-is-just-as-baffled-as-you-are-about-its-rise)). The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 15 March 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin)). The last reported price for Dogecoin for 15 February 2021 was $0.058727. +","83",3 +"How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks. ","95",3 -"Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)). -","207",3 -"Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)). -","51",3 +"What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $0.50"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721. +","43",3 +"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)). +","93",3 +"What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)). +","69",3 +"Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and Newsom will be recalled"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself. +","72",3 +"Will be the end-of-day price of a Dogecoin on 15 March 2021 be higher as compared to the end-of-day price on 15 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1938-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-a-dogecoin-on-15-march-2021-be-higher-as-compared-to-the-end-of-day-price-on-15-february-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Originally created as a joke, the Dogecoin cryptocurrency has seen an incredible rise in value due to pushes made on Reddit and elsewhere ([Dogecoin](https://dogecoin.com/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-11/dogecoin-s-creator-is-just-as-baffled-as-you-are-about-its-rise)). The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 15 March 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin)). The last reported price for Dogecoin for 15 February 2021 was $0.058727. +","120",3 +"Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)). +","247",3 +"Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)). +","54",3 "Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)). -","113",3 -"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)). -","126",3 +","118",3 +"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)). +","138",3 "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 1 February 2021, the military (aka ""Defence Services"") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services ""shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary"" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)). NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close ""Yes"" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military. -","74",3 +","75",3 "Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an ""act of domestic terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count. -","150",3 +","161",3 "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)). -","136",3 +","144",3 "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only SpaceX"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Virgin Galactic"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a ""space tourist flight"" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)). -","131",3 +","138",3 "Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). -","123",3 -"Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Brooklyn Nets"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Clippers"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Lakers"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Milwaukee Bucks"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another team"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)). -","98",3 +","130",3 +"Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Brooklyn Nets"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Clippers"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Lakers"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Milwaukee Bucks"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another team"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)). +","102",3 "Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify. -","122",3 -"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. -","89",3 +","126",3 +"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. +","91",3 "Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch. -","215",3 -"How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies. -","196",3 -"What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than $1 billion"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.75 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the ""Cumulative Gross"" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. -","107",3 -"Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]). -","78",3 +","224",3 +"How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies. +","207",3 +"What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than $1 billion"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.75 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the ""Cumulative Gross"" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. +","113",3 +"Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]). +","82",3 "At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021. -","76",3 -"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean). -","157",3 -"Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial. -","120",3 +","77",3 +"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean). +","163",3 +"Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial. +","122",3 "Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather ""lying low"" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC. -","191",3 +","201",3 "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un ""uno a uno"" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. -Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5f3c333e2d3639363c3e2b3630312c1f3830303b352a3b38323a312b713c3032602c2a3d353a3c2b620e2a3a2c2b3630317a6d6f1c333e2d3639363c3e2b363031). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","309",3 -"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname."" -","280",3 +Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#284b44495a414e414b495c4147465b684f47474c425d4c4f454d465c064b4745175b5d4a424d4b5c15795d4d5b5c4147460d1a186b44495a414e414b495c414746). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","321",3 +"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname."" +","285",3 "How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. -","252",3 +","271",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. -","138",3 +","141",3 "Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)). -","206",3 +","212",3 "Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021? Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","76",3 -"How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question. -","135",3 +","77",3 +"How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question. +","141",3 "Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended. -","62",3 +","65",3 "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 18 September 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count. -","144",3 +","145",3 "Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)). -","82",3 -"What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day ""Market Cap"" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)). -","188",3 -"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial. -","142",3 +","83",3 +"What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day ""Market Cap"" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)). +","193",3 +"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial. +","144",3 "Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial. -","105",3 +","106",3 "Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count. NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count. -","239",3 -"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17. -","214",3 +","245",3 +"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17. +","223",3 "Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]). -","96",3 +","98",3 "Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. -","268",3 +","294",3 "When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)). -","172",3 -"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see ""MARKET CAP""). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)). -","181",3 -"Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Nicaragua"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""St. Lucia"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will be a draw"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). +","177",3 +"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see ""MARKET CAP""). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)). +","186",3 +"Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Nicaragua"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""St. Lucia"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will be a draw"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol? Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. -Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5a39363b28333c33393b2e333534291a3d35353e302f3e3d373f342e7439353765292f38303f392e670b2f3f292e3335347f686a19363b28333c33393b2e333534). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","112",3 -"What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)). -","225",3 +Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e7848b86958e818e8486938e888994a7808888838d9283808a828993c984888ad89492858d828493dab6928294938e8889c2d5d7a48b86958e818e8486938e8889). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","125",3 +"What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)). +","231",3 "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)). -","205",3 -"When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabis","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 May 2021"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After several delays and being approved by the Senate of the Republic, the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis is scheduled for a vote by Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies sometime between February and April 2021 ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthoban/2021/12/27/will-we-see-mexico-legalize-cannabis-in-2021/?sh=180c18034ed9), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-set-to-become-worlds-largest-legal-cannabis-market-11609263506), [Xataka](https://www.xataka.com.mx/medicina-y-salud/consumir-marihuana-sera-legal-mexico-todo-que-hay-que-saber-nueva-regulacion-consumo-ludico-cannabis) [in Spanish], [El Economista](https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Diputados-deben-subsanar-deficiencias-en-legislacion-que-descriminaliza-la-mariguana-expertos-20201129-0008.html) [in Spanish]). The approval of an amended version of the legislation approved by the Mexican Senate would count. Whether the legislation actually becomes law is immaterial, and procedural votes other than final approval by the Chamber would not count. -","45",3 +","208",3 +"When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabis","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 May 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After several delays and being approved by the Senate of the Republic, the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis is scheduled for a vote by Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies sometime between February and April 2021 ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthoban/2021/12/27/will-we-see-mexico-legalize-cannabis-in-2021/?sh=180c18034ed9), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-set-to-become-worlds-largest-legal-cannabis-market-11609263506), [Xataka](https://www.xataka.com.mx/medicina-y-salud/consumir-marihuana-sera-legal-mexico-todo-que-hay-que-saber-nueva-regulacion-consumo-ludico-cannabis) [in Spanish], [El Economista](https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Diputados-deben-subsanar-deficiencias-en-legislacion-que-descriminaliza-la-mariguana-expertos-20201129-0008.html) [in Spanish]). The approval of an amended version of the legislation approved by the Mexican Senate would count. Whether the legislation actually becomes law is immaterial, and procedural votes other than final approval by the Chamber would not count. +","46",3 "Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be an election before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)). -","299",3 +","304",3 "At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021. ","101",3 -"Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)). -","156",3 +"Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)). +","158",3 "Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)). -","167",3 -"Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement. -","427",3 +","168",3 +"Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement. +","431",3 "Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only by the FDA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only by the EMA"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count. -","390",3 +","394",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question. Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count. -","259",3 +","263",3 "Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)). -","332",3 -"Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect. -","259",3 +","336",3 +"Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect. +","262",3 "Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting ""Region"" to ""Europe,"" and ""Type"" to ""Monthly."" After selecting a particular monthly report, see ""Occupancy"" under the ""Euro Constant currency"" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020)) -","380",3 -"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Kovrig"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)). -","292",3 +","391",3 +"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Kovrig"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)). +","297",3 "Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a ""Yes"" resolution. -","228",3 -"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count. -","229",3 +","231",3 +"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count. +","237",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)). ","81",3 "Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the ""Bank Rate"" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)).  -","357",3 +","366",3 "Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file ""Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change."" See the row designated ""10"" under ""SUMLEV"" and ""United States"" under ""NAME."" The relevant data are titled ""INTERNATIONALMIG[year]."" For methodological information, see the ""Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population"" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. -","98",3 +","99",3 "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" -","69",3 -"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)). -","210",3 -"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only for president"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only for parliament"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, for both president and parliament"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)). -","108",3 +","70",3 +"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)). +","217",3 +"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only for president"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only for parliament"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, for both president and parliament"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)). +","111",3 "Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, constant prices"" and Units as ""Percent change."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)). The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). -","355",3 -"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)). +","371",3 +"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)). NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin. -","159",3 -"Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. +","163",3 +"Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). -","489",3 +","505",3 "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 5.0%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.0%"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as ""Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter."" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021. -","494",3 -"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)). -","1322",3 -"How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""350,000 or more"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under ""Shareholder Deck"" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021. -","484",3 +","501",3 +"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)). +","1378",3 +"How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""350,000 or more"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under ""Shareholder Deck"" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021. +","489",3 "Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)). ","307",3 "Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)). This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021). -","454",3 +","470",3 "In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its ""Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts"" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)). ","213",3 -"Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. +"Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA. -","297",3 -"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93). -","279",3 -"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). -","273",3 +","306",3 +"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93). +","282",3 +"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). +","276",3 "At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021. -","159",3 +","166",3 "Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)). -","211",3 -"Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. -","296",3 +","214",3 +"Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. +","301",3 "Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the ""Annual Reports on Form 10-K"" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21). -","256",3 -"How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). -","1284",3 +","259",3 +"How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). +","1310",3 "Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)). -","272",3 +","277",3 "Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)). -","193",3 +","195",3 "Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)). NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests. ","147",3 -"Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.  -","124",3 -"When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count. -","489",3 -"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question. -","663",3 -"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)). -","329",3 +"Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.  +","127",3 +"When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count. +","497",3 +"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question. +","682",3 +"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)). +","343",3 "What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 1.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 million"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million. -","437",3 -"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)). -","416",3 +","441",3 +"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)). +","421",3 "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" -","206",3 +","207",3 "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)). -","389",3 +","393",3 "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""England"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Italy"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Spain"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another country"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)). -","295",3 +","296",3 "When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 19 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 24 May 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)). -","653",3 +","661",3 "Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)). -","1089",3 +","1093",3 "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. -","362",3 +","368",3 "Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, ""voting system"" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021. -","312",3 -"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. -","656",3 -"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. -","777",3 -"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" -","199",3 +","316",3 +"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. +","676",3 +"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. +","784",3 +"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" +","201",3 "In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" -","314",3 +","316",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)). -","587",3 +","598",3 "How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""2 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or more"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)). NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed ""as of,"" so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021. NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel. ","463",3 "When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the ""Next Generation EU"" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst & Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial. -","219",3 +","226",3 "How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 25,000"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. -","351",3 +","354",3 "Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution. -","270",3 +","273",3 "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1 or 2"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or 4"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count. NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered ""powered"" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a ""passenger vehicle"" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). ","268",3 -"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta. -","662",3 +"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta. +","687",3 "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)). -Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#086b64697a616e616b697c6167667b486f67676c627d6c6f656d667c266b6765377b7d6a626d6b7c35597d6d7b7c6167662d3a384b64697a616e616b697c616766). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","283",3 +Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#83e0efe2f1eae5eae0e2f7eaecedf0c3e4ecece7e9f6e7e4eee6edf7ade0eceebcf0f6e1e9e6e0f7bed2f6e6f0f7eaeceda6b1b3c0efe2f1eae5eae0e2f7eaeced). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","286",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)). -Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#f5969994879c939c9694819c9a9b86b5929a9a919f80919298909b81db969a98ca8680979f909681c8a4809086819c9a9bd0c7c5b69994879c939c9694819c9a9b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","601",3 -"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, a firm"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, a paid backup driver"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. +Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#2d4e414c5f444b444e4c594442435e6d4a4242494758494a40484359034e4240125e584f47484e59107c58485e59444243081f1d6e414c5f444b444e4c59444243). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","608",3 +"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, a firm"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, a paid backup driver"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to ""face criminal charges"" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense. -","235",3 +","236",3 "How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.2 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.0 million"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)). This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. -","238",3 +","239",3 "How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 5,300"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,500"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the ""Advanced Filters"" tab.  First select ""Location"" on the left and set ""Country"" to be ""United States"" while keeping ""State/Territory"" to be ""All."" Then select ""Fuel"" on the left. Under ""Filter by Fuel Type"" select ""Electric"" and set ""Charger types"" to be only ""DC Fast"" while keeping ""Connectors"" and ""Networks"" to be ""All."" -","226",3 +","227",3 "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)). -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0e6d626f7c6768676d6f7a6761607d4e6961616a647b6a69636b607a206d6163317d7b6c646b6d7a335f7b6b7d7a6761602b3c3e4d626f7c6768676d6f7a676160). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","1100",3 -"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#4d2e212c3f242b242e2c392422233e0d2a2222292738292a20282339632e2220723e382f27282e39701c38283e39242223687f7d0e212c3f242b242e2c39242223). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","1557",3 +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#56353a37243f303f3537223f39382516313939323c2332313b3338227835393b692523343c3335226b07233325223f3938736466153a37243f303f3537223f3938). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","1121",3 +"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#96f5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8e5d6f1f9f9f2fce3f2f1fbf3f8e2b8f5f9fba9e5e3f4fcf3f5e2abc7e3f3e5e2fff9f8b3a4a6d5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","1650",3 "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a ""bump in the road"" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided. -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#60030c0112090609030114090f0e1320070f0f040a1504070d050e144e030f0d5f1315020a0503145d3115051314090f0e455250230c0112090609030114090f0e). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","233",3 +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#67040b06150e010e0406130e08091427000808030d1203000a0209134904080a581412050d0204135a36120214130e0809425557240b06150e010e0406130e0809). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","234",3 "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#dab9b6bba8b3bcb3b9bbaeb3b5b4a99abdb5b5beb0afbebdb7bfb4aef4b9b5b7e5a9afb8b0bfb9aee78bafbfa9aeb3b5b4ffe8ea99b6bba8b3bcb3b9bbaeb3b5b4). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","989",3 +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#31525d5043585758525045585e5f4271565e5e555b4455565c545f451f525e5c0e4244535b5452450c6044544245585e5f140301725d5043585758525045585e5f). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","1004",3 "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2,200,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. -","283",3 -"How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 25,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than 35,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 40,000"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph ""Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)"" when the filter for ""Charger type"" is set to ""Fast (>22kW)"" and the filters at the top of the page are set to ""European Union"" and ""2022"". -","273",3 +","284",3 +"How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 25,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than 35,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 40,000"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph ""Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)"" when the filter for ""Charger type"" is set to ""Fast (>22kW)"" and the filters at the top of the page are set to ""European Union"" and ""2022"". +","274",3 "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count. -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b3d0dfd2c1dad5dad0d2c7dadcddc0f3d4dcdcd7d9c6d7d4ded6ddc79dd0dcde8cc0c6d1d9d6d0c78ee2c6d6c0c7dadcdd968183f0dfd2c1dad5dad0d2c7dadcdd). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","381",3 +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#3f5c535e4d5659565c5e4b5650514c7f5850505b554a5b58525a514b115c5052004c4a5d555a5c4b026e4a5a4c4b5650511a0d0f7c535e4d5659565c5e4b565051). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","382",3 "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. ","183",3 -"What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $80 per kWh"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 per kWh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was ""a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh"" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)). -","264",3 -"What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 2.5%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.5%"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV & PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources. -","404",3 +"What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $80 per kWh"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 per kWh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was ""a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh"" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)). +","267",3 +"What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 2.5%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.5%"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV & PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources. +","409",3 "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. -","260",3 +","261",3 "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1418](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. ","297",3 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json index 65bd8c9..082fd76 100644 --- a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json +++ b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json @@ -1,23 +1,272 @@ [ + { + "title": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 15,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "95,000 or more", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "6", + "numforecasters": "6", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 100,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "900,000 or more", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "23", + "numforecasters": "20", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 70,000,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000", + "probability": 0.44, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 115,000,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "42", + "numforecasters": "30", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 4,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "20,000 or more", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "24", + "numforecasters": "19", + "stars": 3 + }, { "title": "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the \"Data for all countries\" spreadsheet under the \"Excel file\" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (\"Share of GDP sheet,\" cell BU99).\n", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the \"Data for all countries\" spreadsheet under the \"Excel file\" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (\"Share of GDP sheet,\" cell BU99).\nNOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "62", - "numforecasters": "46", + "numforecasts": "75", + "numforecasters": "54", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -28,17 +277,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "29", - "numforecasters": "24", + "numforecasts": "46", + "numforecasters": "30", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -49,22 +298,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2 or more", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "32", - "numforecasters": "26", + "numforecasts": "41", + "numforecasters": "30", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -75,17 +324,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "148", - "numforecasters": "131", + "numforecasts": "184", + "numforecasters": "152", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -96,17 +345,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 4", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 4 and 8", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 9 and 13", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -116,12 +365,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 18", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "96", - "numforecasters": "87", + "numforecasts": "112", + "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -132,17 +381,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "120", - "numforecasters": "114", + "numforecasts": "145", + "numforecasters": "137", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -162,8 +411,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "70", - "numforecasters": "65", + "numforecasts": "83", + "numforecasters": "75", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -179,27 +428,27 @@ }, { "name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 14,000,000", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "82", - "numforecasters": "67", + "numforecasts": "95", + "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -210,7 +459,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $0.50", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -220,7 +469,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -234,7 +483,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "38", + "numforecasts": "43", "numforecasters": "19", "stars": 3 }, @@ -246,32 +495,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.4%", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 7.1%", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "82", - "numforecasters": "62", + "numforecasts": "93", + "numforecasters": "70", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -287,7 +536,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -302,12 +551,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 2.500", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "59", - "numforecasters": "36", + "numforecasts": "69", + "numforecasters": "38", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -318,12 +567,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -332,8 +581,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "68", - "numforecasters": "39", + "numforecasts": "72", + "numforecasters": "41", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -353,8 +602,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "95", - "numforecasters": "47", + "numforecasts": "120", + "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -365,22 +614,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither will occur before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "207", - "numforecasters": "145", + "numforecasts": "247", + "numforecasters": "169", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -391,17 +640,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "51", - "numforecasters": "39", + "numforecasts": "54", + "numforecasters": "42", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -421,8 +670,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "113", - "numforecasters": "67", + "numforecasts": "118", + "numforecasters": "68", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -433,16 +682,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "126", + "numforecasts": "138", "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3 }, @@ -463,7 +712,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "74", + "numforecasts": "75", "numforecasters": "47", "stars": 3 }, @@ -484,8 +733,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "150", - "numforecasters": "99", + "numforecasts": "161", + "numforecasters": "101", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -505,8 +754,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "136", - "numforecasters": "114", + "numforecasts": "144", + "numforecasters": "119", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -536,8 +785,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "131", - "numforecasters": "101", + "numforecasts": "138", + "numforecasters": "105", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -557,8 +806,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "123", - "numforecasters": "71", + "numforecasts": "130", + "numforecasters": "73", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -569,7 +818,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Brooklyn Nets", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -579,7 +828,7 @@ }, { "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -589,7 +838,7 @@ }, { "name": "Another team", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -598,8 +847,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "98", - "numforecasters": "48", + "numforecasts": "102", + "numforecasters": "49", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -619,7 +868,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "122", + "numforecasts": "126", "numforecasters": "80", "stars": 3 }, @@ -631,17 +880,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "89", - "numforecasters": "64", + "numforecasts": "91", + "numforecasters": "65", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -661,8 +910,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "215", - "numforecasters": "100", + "numforecasts": "224", + "numforecasters": "101", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -673,12 +922,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -692,8 +941,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "196", - "numforecasters": "130", + "numforecasts": "207", + "numforecasters": "133", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -704,17 +953,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $200 million", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -728,8 +977,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "107", - "numforecasters": "66", + "numforecasts": "113", + "numforecasters": "69", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -740,17 +989,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "78", - "numforecasters": "51", + "numforecasts": "82", + "numforecasters": "52", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -775,7 +1024,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "76", + "numforecasts": "77", "numforecasters": "59", "stars": 3 }, @@ -787,16 +1036,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "157", + "numforecasts": "163", "numforecasters": "78", "stars": 3 }, @@ -808,16 +1057,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "120", + "numforecasts": "122", "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3 }, @@ -838,15 +1087,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "191", - "numforecasters": "126", + "numforecasts": "201", + "numforecasters": "129", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5f3c333e2d3639363c3e2b3630312c1f3830303b352a3b38323a312b713c3032602c2a3d353a3c2b620e2a3a2c2b3630317a6d6f1c333e2d3639363c3e2b363031). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#284b44495a414e414b495c4147465b684f47474c425d4c4f454d465c064b4745175b5d4a424d4b5c15795d4d5b5c4147460d1a186b44495a414e414b495c414746). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -859,8 +1108,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "309", - "numforecasters": "182", + "numforecasts": "321", + "numforecasters": "184", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -881,7 +1130,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -891,11 +1140,11 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 June 2021", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "280", + "numforecasts": "285", "numforecasters": "68", "stars": 3 }, @@ -931,8 +1180,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "252", - "numforecasters": "87", + "numforecasts": "271", + "numforecasters": "92", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -952,8 +1201,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "138", - "numforecasters": "108", + "numforecasts": "141", + "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -973,7 +1222,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "206", + "numforecasts": "212", "numforecasters": "137", "stars": 3 }, @@ -994,7 +1243,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "76", + "numforecasts": "77", "numforecasters": "48", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1011,21 +1260,21 @@ }, { "name": "Between 226 seats and 299 seats", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "300 seats or more", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "135", + "numforecasts": "141", "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1051,7 +1300,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "62", + "numforecasts": "65", "numforecasters": "34", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1077,7 +1326,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "144", + "numforecasts": "145", "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1098,7 +1347,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "82", + "numforecasts": "83", "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1110,17 +1359,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $75 billion", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1130,11 +1379,11 @@ }, { "name": "More than $150 billion", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "188", + "numforecasts": "193", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1146,16 +1395,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "142", + "numforecasts": "144", "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1181,7 +1430,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "105", + "numforecasts": "106", "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1202,8 +1451,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "239", - "numforecasters": "128", + "numforecasts": "245", + "numforecasters": "130", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1214,16 +1463,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "214", + "numforecasts": "223", "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1244,7 +1493,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "96", + "numforecasts": "98", "numforecasters": "37", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1265,8 +1514,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "268", - "numforecasters": "166", + "numforecasts": "294", + "numforecasters": "181", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1291,8 +1540,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "172", - "numforecasters": "64", + "numforecasts": "177", + "numforecasters": "66", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1303,33 +1552,33 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No, but the most valuable in the United States", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "181", - "numforecasters": "103", + "numforecasts": "186", + "numforecasters": "105", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5a39363b28333c33393b2e333534291a3d35353e302f3e3d373f342e7439353765292f38303f392e670b2f3f292e3335347f686a19363b28333c33393b2e333534). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n", + "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e7848b86958e818e8486938e888994a7808888838d9283808a828993c984888ad89492858d828493dab6928294938e8889c2d5d7a48b86958e818e8486938e8889). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Nicaragua", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1339,12 +1588,12 @@ }, { "name": "There will be a draw", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "112", - "numforecasters": "79", + "numforecasts": "125", + "numforecasters": "90", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1360,17 +1609,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1379,7 +1628,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "225", + "numforecasts": "231", "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1400,7 +1649,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "205", + "numforecasts": "208", "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1417,7 +1666,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 March and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1427,11 +1676,11 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 May 2021", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "45", + "numforecasts": "46", "numforecasters": "19", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1457,7 +1706,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "299", + "numforecasts": "304", "numforecasters": "133", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1495,16 +1744,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "156", + "numforecasts": "158", "numforecasters": "80", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1525,7 +1774,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "167", + "numforecasts": "168", "numforecasters": "60", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1537,12 +1786,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1551,8 +1800,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "427", - "numforecasters": "188", + "numforecasts": "431", + "numforecasters": "189", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1582,8 +1831,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "390", - "numforecasters": "207", + "numforecasts": "394", + "numforecasters": "208", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1603,7 +1852,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "259", + "numforecasts": "263", "numforecasters": "145", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1624,8 +1873,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "332", - "numforecasters": "222", + "numforecasts": "336", + "numforecasters": "224", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1636,17 +1885,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "259", - "numforecasters": "101", + "numforecasts": "262", + "numforecasters": "102", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1666,8 +1915,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "380", - "numforecasters": "103", + "numforecasts": "391", + "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1688,16 +1937,16 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "292", + "numforecasts": "297", "numforecasters": "102", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1718,7 +1967,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "228", + "numforecasts": "231", "numforecasters": "123", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1740,12 +1989,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1754,7 +2003,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "229", + "numforecasts": "237", "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1796,8 +2045,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "357", - "numforecasters": "198", + "numforecasts": "366", + "numforecasters": "202", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1817,7 +2066,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "98", + "numforecasts": "99", "numforecasters": "59", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1838,7 +2087,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "69", + "numforecasts": "70", "numforecasters": "31", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1860,12 +2109,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than $2.50 but less than $3.00", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1874,7 +2123,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "210", + "numforecasts": "217", "numforecasters": "42", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1886,7 +2135,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only for president", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1896,7 +2145,7 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, for both president and parliament", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1905,7 +2154,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "108", + "numforecasts": "111", "numforecasters": "29", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1926,8 +2175,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "355", - "numforecasters": "172", + "numforecasts": "371", + "numforecasters": "177", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1948,7 +2197,7 @@ }, { "name": "A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1958,7 +2207,7 @@ }, { "name": "Another candidate", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1967,7 +2216,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "159", + "numforecasts": "163", "numforecasters": "78", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1979,16 +2228,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "489", + "numforecasts": "505", "numforecasters": "196", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2024,7 +2273,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "494", + "numforecasts": "501", "numforecasters": "245", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2051,17 +2300,17 @@ }, { "name": "3", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or more", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1322", - "numforecasters": "404", + "numforecasts": "1378", + "numforecasters": "427", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2077,7 +2326,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2087,12 +2336,12 @@ }, { "name": "350,000 or more", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "484", - "numforecasters": "210", + "numforecasts": "489", + "numforecasters": "211", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2133,8 +2382,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "454", - "numforecasters": "202", + "numforecasts": "470", + "numforecasters": "212", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2166,17 +2415,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "297", - "numforecasters": "183", + "numforecasts": "306", + "numforecasters": "185", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2187,16 +2436,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "279", + "numforecasts": "282", "numforecasters": "162", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2223,16 +2472,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "273", + "numforecasts": "276", "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2258,8 +2507,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "159", - "numforecasters": "94", + "numforecasts": "166", + "numforecasters": "98", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2279,7 +2528,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "211", + "numforecasts": "214", "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2291,17 +2540,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "296", - "numforecasters": "157", + "numforecasts": "301", + "numforecasters": "159", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2321,7 +2570,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "256", + "numforecasts": "259", "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2348,17 +2597,17 @@ }, { "name": "7 or 8", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "9 or more", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1284", - "numforecasters": "194", + "numforecasts": "1310", + "numforecasters": "196", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2378,8 +2627,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "272", - "numforecasters": "61", + "numforecasts": "277", + "numforecasters": "62", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2399,7 +2648,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "193", + "numforecasts": "195", "numforecasters": "62", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2447,16 +2696,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "124", + "numforecasts": "127", "numforecasters": "54", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2483,17 +2732,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 June 2021", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "489", - "numforecasters": "148", + "numforecasts": "497", + "numforecasters": "149", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2504,17 +2753,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "663", - "numforecasters": "153", + "numforecasts": "682", + "numforecasters": "154", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2525,7 +2774,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.00%", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2535,12 +2784,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2549,8 +2798,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "329", - "numforecasters": "118", + "numforecasts": "343", + "numforecasters": "127", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2585,7 +2834,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "437", + "numforecasts": "441", "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2607,16 +2856,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 April 2021", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "416", + "numforecasts": "421", "numforecasters": "65", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2637,8 +2886,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "206", - "numforecasters": "64", + "numforecasts": "207", + "numforecasters": "65", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2658,7 +2907,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "389", + "numforecasts": "393", "numforecasters": "159", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2704,7 +2953,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "295", + "numforecasts": "296", "numforecasters": "111", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2740,7 +2989,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "653", + "numforecasts": "661", "numforecasters": "199", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2761,7 +3010,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1089", + "numforecasts": "1093", "numforecasters": "448", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2782,7 +3031,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "362", + "numforecasts": "368", "numforecasters": "159", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2803,8 +3052,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "312", - "numforecasters": "150", + "numforecasts": "316", + "numforecasters": "152", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2815,17 +3064,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "656", - "numforecasters": "162", + "numforecasts": "676", + "numforecasters": "164", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2851,17 +3100,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 October 2021", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "777", - "numforecasters": "164", + "numforecasts": "784", + "numforecasters": "165", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2872,16 +3121,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "199", + "numforecasts": "201", "numforecasters": "77", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2902,7 +3151,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "314", + "numforecasts": "316", "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2923,8 +3172,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "587", - "numforecasters": "180", + "numforecasts": "598", + "numforecasters": "181", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2990,8 +3239,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "219", - "numforecasters": "51", + "numforecasts": "226", + "numforecasters": "53", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3026,7 +3275,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "351", + "numforecasts": "354", "numforecasters": "116", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3057,7 +3306,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "270", + "numforecasts": "273", "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3115,24 +3364,24 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "662", - "numforecasters": "169", + "numforecasts": "687", + "numforecasters": "183", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#086b64697a616e616b697c6167667b486f67676c627d6c6f656d667c266b6765377b7d6a626d6b7c35597d6d7b7c6167662d3a384b64697a616e616b697c616766). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#83e0efe2f1eae5eae0e2f7eaecedf0c3e4ecece7e9f6e7e4eee6edf7ade0eceebcf0f6e1e9e6e0f7bed2f6e6f0f7eaeceda6b1b3c0efe2f1eae5eae0e2f7eaeced). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -3145,15 +3394,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "283", - "numforecasters": "136", + "numforecasts": "286", + "numforecasters": "137", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#f5969994879c939c9694819c9a9b86b5929a9a919f80919298909b81db969a98ca8680979f909681c8a4809086819c9a9bd0c7c5b69994879c939c9694819c9a9b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#2d4e414c5f444b444e4c594442435e6d4a4242494758494a40484359034e4240125e584f47484e59107c58485e59444243081f1d6e414c5f444b444e4c59444243). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -3166,7 +3415,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "601", + "numforecasts": "608", "numforecasters": "142", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3183,7 +3432,7 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, a paid backup driver", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3193,12 +3442,12 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "235", - "numforecasters": "92", + "numforecasts": "236", + "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3233,7 +3482,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "238", + "numforecasts": "239", "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3269,7 +3518,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "226", + "numforecasts": "227", "numforecasters": "46", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3277,7 +3526,7 @@ "title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0e6d626f7c6768676d6f7a6761607d4e6961616a647b6a69636b607a206d6163317d7b6c646b6d7a335f7b6b7d7a6761602b3c3e4d626f7c6768676d6f7a676160). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#56353a37243f303f3537223f39382516313939323c2332313b3338227835393b692523343c3335226b07233325223f3938736466153a37243f303f3537223f3938). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 2.5 million", @@ -3305,15 +3554,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1100", - "numforecasters": "146", + "numforecasts": "1121", + "numforecasters": "155", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#4d2e212c3f242b242e2c392422233e0d2a2222292738292a20282339632e2220723e382f27282e39701c38283e39242223687f7d0e212c3f242b242e2c39242223). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#96f5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8e5d6f1f9f9f2fce3f2f1fbf3f8e2b8f5f9fba9e5e3f4fcf3f5e2abc7e3f3e5e2fff9f8b3a4a6d5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, the Olympics only", @@ -3322,29 +3571,29 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, the Paralympics only", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1557", - "numforecasters": "560", + "numforecasts": "1650", + "numforecasters": "612", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#60030c0112090609030114090f0e1320070f0f040a1504070d050e144e030f0d5f1315020a0503145d3115051314090f0e455250230c0112090609030114090f0e). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#67040b06150e010e0406130e08091427000808030d1203000a0209134904080a581412050d0204135a36120214130e0809425557240b06150e010e0406130e0809). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -3357,7 +3606,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "233", + "numforecasts": "234", "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3365,7 +3614,7 @@ "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#dab9b6bba8b3bcb3b9bbaeb3b5b4a99abdb5b5beb0afbebdb7bfb4aef4b9b5b7e5a9afb8b0bfb9aee78bafbfa9aeb3b5b4ffe8ea99b6bba8b3bcb3b9bbaeb3b5b4). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#31525d5043585758525045585e5f4271565e5e555b4455565c545f451f525e5c0e4244535b5452450c6044544245585e5f140301725d5043585758525045585e5f). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -3378,8 +3627,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "989", - "numforecasters": "435", + "numforecasts": "1004", + "numforecasters": "444", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3414,7 +3663,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "283", + "numforecasts": "284", "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3441,16 +3690,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 40,000", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "273", + "numforecasts": "274", "numforecasters": "73", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3458,7 +3707,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b3d0dfd2c1dad5dad0d2c7dadcddc0f3d4dcdcd7d9c6d7d4ded6ddc79dd0dcde8cc0c6d1d9d6d0c78ee2c6d6c0c7dadcdd968183f0dfd2c1dad5dad0d2c7dadcdd). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#3f5c535e4d5659565c5e4b5650514c7f5850505b554a5b58525a514b115c5052004c4a5d555a5c4b026e4a5a4c4b5650511a0d0f7c535e4d5659565c5e4b565051). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "0", @@ -3481,8 +3730,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "381", - "numforecasters": "215", + "numforecasts": "382", + "numforecasters": "216", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3524,12 +3773,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3538,7 +3787,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "264", + "numforecasts": "267", "numforecasters": "95", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3555,17 +3804,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3574,7 +3823,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "404", + "numforecasts": "409", "numforecasters": "146", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3595,7 +3844,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "260", + "numforecasts": "261", "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3 }, diff --git a/data/hypermind-questions.csv b/data/hypermind-questions.csv index 6294e6a..4e10614 100644 --- a/data/hypermind-questions.csv +++ b/data/hypermind-questions.csv @@ -1,36 +1,35 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" -"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0297029702970297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9702970297029703,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 +"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 "Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.",,3 "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes, more than 121"",""probability"":0.33035714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, not more than 121"",""probability"":0.6696428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.",,3 "In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0297029702970297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9702970297029703,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ",,3 -"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.14814814814814814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5555555555555556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.14814814814814814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 -"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.619047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.15238095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.028571428571428567,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.",,3 -"On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9423076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 -"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""In June, 2021 (as planned)"",""probability"":0.9405940594059407,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Later in 2021"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not in 2021"",""probability"":0.039603960396039604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 -"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.06862745098039215,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.14705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.28431372549019607,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.28431372549019607,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.20588235294117646,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World)",,3 +"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.1346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5673076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.05769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.1346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 +"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.6132075471698113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.1509433962264151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.1981132075471698,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.",,3 +"On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9393939393939396,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06060606060606061,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 +"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""In June, 2021 (as planned)"",""probability"":0.9134615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Later in 2021"",""probability"":0.04807692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not in 2021"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 +"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.0425531914893617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.1595744680851064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.22340425531914893,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.35106382978723405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.22340425531914893,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World)",,3 "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.18867924528301888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Japan"",""probability"":0.8018867924528302,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same medals count"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H",,3 -"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Saad-Eddine El Othmani"",""probability"":0.29523809523809524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelilah Benkirane"",""probability"":0.07619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else from PJD"",""probability"":0.047619047619047616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else not from PJD"",""probability"":0.580952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".",,3 +"Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","To be considered ""deadly"", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ",,3 +"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Saad-Eddine El Othmani"",""probability"":0.2818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelilah Benkirane"",""probability"":0.07272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else from PJD"",""probability"":0.04545454545454545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else not from PJD"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".",,3 "In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""> 148 (more than currently)"",""probability"":0.831858407079646,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""128 (absolute majority) to 148 "",""probability"":0.13274336283185842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""< 128"",""probability"":0.035398230088495575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.",,3 -"In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Mohamed Bazoum"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mahamane Ousmane"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No official winner in 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The second round of the presidential election is scheduled on February 21, 2021.",,3 "In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.030303030303030304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696969696969697,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",,3 -"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",,3 -"In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Denis Sassou Nguesso"",""probability"":0.9423076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mathias Dzon"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",,3 +"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08080808080808081,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9191919191919193,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",,3 +"In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Denis Sassou Nguesso"",""probability"":0.9428571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mathias Dzon"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",,3 "In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Idriss Déby Itno"",""probability"":0.951923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Saleh Kezabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Succès Masra"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",,3 -"In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed"",""probability"":0.8839285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abshir Aden Ferro"",""probability"":0.08928571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharif Sheikh Ahmed"",""probability"":0.00892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.00892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.00892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...",,3 -"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.1485148514851485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.24752475247524752,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.13861386138613863,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.4554455445544554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.",,3 +"In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed"",""probability"":0.8333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abshir Aden Ferro"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharif Sheikh Ahmed"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.1372549019607843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...",,3 +"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.008695652173913044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.1565217391304348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.3217391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.1217391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.391304347826087,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.",,3 "In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.6435643564356436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another Likud politician"",""probability"":0.039603960396039604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another politician not from Likud"",""probability"":0.31683168316831684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.",,3 -"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.3627450980392157,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.2745098039215686,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.3627450980392157,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with this link",,3 -"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.08823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.8725490196078431,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.",,3 -"In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.0849056603773585,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.330188679245283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.09433962264150944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.16037735849056603,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.330188679245283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.",,3 -"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.06862745098039215,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.46078431372549017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.3431372549019608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.12745098039215685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",,3 -"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",,3 -"When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""In 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 -"Which threshold will gold prices (per ounce) reach first? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":"">= 2,200 USD"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""<= 1,700 USD"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ).Follow godlier prices here: [https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/](https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/)",,3 -"What will be the closing share price of GameStop (GME) on Feb. 26, 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""≥ $400"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$300, $400["",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$200, $300["",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$100, $200["",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$0, $100["",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$75, $100["",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$50, $75["",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$25, $50["",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$0, $25["",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Follow GameStop's stock price here: [https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME)",,3 +"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.28712871287128716,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.26732673267326734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.44554455445544555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with this link",,3 +"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.1485148514851485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.8019801980198019,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.",,3 +"In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.10377358490566038,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.330188679245283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.12264150943396226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.1509433962264151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.2924528301886793,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.",,3 +"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",,3 +"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",,3 +"When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""In 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.030612244897959186,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.9693877551020408,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 +"In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=POL","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Mohamed Bazoum"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mahamane Ousmane"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No official winner in 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The second round of the presidential election is scheduled on February 21, 2021.",,3 "Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""≥ 32,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 28,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",,3 -"Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""≥ 6,000"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 5,000"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",,3 +"Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""≥ 6,000"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 5,000"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",,3 "Will the new Bond film ""No Time to Die"" be released in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.",,3 -"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as ""Yes"" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.",,3 +"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17142857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as ""Yes"" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.",,3 "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind","[]","This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?"" The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: diff --git a/data/hypermind-questions.json b/data/hypermind-questions.json index 001e83a..85f7b84 100644 --- a/data/hypermind-questions.json +++ b/data/hypermind-questions.json @@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9702970297029703, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -82,57 +82,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pierre de Villiers", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.14814814814814814, + "probability": 0.1346153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.5555555555555556, + "probability": 0.5673076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Piolle", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another woman", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.05769230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another man", - "probability": 0.14814814814814814, + "probability": 0.1346153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -146,22 +146,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Macron and Le Pen", - "probability": 0.619047619047619, + "probability": 0.6132075471698113, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen", - "probability": 0.15238095238095237, + "probability": 0.1509433962264151, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.1981132075471698, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither of them", - "probability": 0.028571428571428567, + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -175,12 +175,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9423076923076923, + "probability": 0.9393939393939396, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.05769230769230769, + "probability": 0.06060606060606061, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -194,17 +194,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)", - "probability": 0.9405940594059407, + "probability": 0.9134615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Later in 2021", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.04807692307692307, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not in 2021", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -228,37 +228,37 @@ }, { "name": "February 2021", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "March 2021", - "probability": 0.06862745098039215, + "probability": 0.0425531914893617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "April 2021", - "probability": 0.14705882352941177, + "probability": 0.1595744680851064, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "May 2021", - "probability": 0.28431372549019607, + "probability": 0.22340425531914893, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "June 2021", - "probability": 0.28431372549019607, + "probability": 0.35106382978723405, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe after June 2021", - "probability": 0.20588235294117646, + "probability": 0.22340425531914893, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -289,6 +289,25 @@ "description": "24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H", "stars": 3 }, + { + "title": "Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.93, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "To be considered \"deadly\", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ", + "stars": 3 + }, { "title": "Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", @@ -296,22 +315,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani", - "probability": 0.29523809523809524, + "probability": 0.2818181818181818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdelilah Benkirane", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, + "probability": 0.07272727272727272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else from PJD", - "probability": 0.047619047619047616, + "probability": 0.04545454545454545, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else not from PJD", - "probability": 0.580952380952381, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -342,35 +361,6 @@ "description": "The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.", "stars": 3 }, - { - "title": "In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Mohamed Bazoum", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mahamane Ousmane", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No official winner in 2021", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The second round of the presidential election is scheduled on February 21, 2021.", - "stars": 3 - }, { "title": "In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", @@ -397,12 +387,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.08080808080808081, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.9191919191919193, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -416,27 +406,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Denis Sassou Nguesso", - "probability": 0.9423076923076923, + "probability": 0.9428571428571427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mathias Dzon", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No election in 2021", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -489,27 +479,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed", - "probability": 0.8839285714285715, + "probability": 0.8333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abshir Aden Ferro", - "probability": 0.08928571428571429, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sharif Sheikh Ahmed", - "probability": 0.00892857142857143, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.00892857142857143, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No election in 2021", - "probability": 0.00892857142857143, + "probability": 0.1372549019607843, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -523,27 +513,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.008695652173913044, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.1485148514851485, + "probability": 0.1565217391304348, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.24752475247524752, + "probability": 0.3217391304347826, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.13861386138613863, + "probability": 0.1217391304347826, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.4554455445544554, + "probability": 0.391304347826087, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -581,17 +571,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Worse than the 2012 record", - "probability": 0.3627450980392157, + "probability": 0.28712871287128716, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012", - "probability": 0.2745098039215686, + "probability": 0.26732673267326734, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not worse than 2020", - "probability": 0.3627450980392157, + "probability": 0.44554455445544555, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -605,32 +595,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)", - "probability": 0.08823529411764705, + "probability": 0.1485148514851485, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)", - "probability": 0.8725490196078431, + "probability": 0.8019801980198019, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another member of CDU/CSU", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A member of SPD", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A member of the Green party", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -644,7 +634,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "in Q1, 2021", - "probability": 0.0849056603773585, + "probability": 0.10377358490566038, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -654,17 +644,17 @@ }, { "name": "in Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.09433962264150944, + "probability": 0.12264150943396226, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.16037735849056603, + "probability": 0.1509433962264151, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Perhaps later", - "probability": 0.330188679245283, + "probability": 0.2924528301886793, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -678,22 +668,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.06862745098039215, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.46078431372549017, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.3431372549019608, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.12745098039215685, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -707,7 +697,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -717,12 +707,12 @@ }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -741,12 +731,12 @@ }, { "name": "Q1, 2021", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.030612244897959186, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.9693877551020408, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -754,76 +744,32 @@ "stars": 3 }, { - "title": "Which threshold will gold prices (per ounce) reach first? ", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO", + "title": "In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=POL", "platform": "Hypermind", "options": [ { - "name": ">= 2,200 USD", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "<= 1,700 USD", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ).Follow godlier prices here: [https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/](https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/)", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "What will be the closing share price of GameStop (GME) on Feb. 26, 2021?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "options": [ - { - "name": "≥ $400", + "name": "Mohamed Bazoum", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "[$300, $400[", + "name": "Mahamane Ousmane", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "[$200, $300[", + "name": "Someone else", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "[$100, $200[", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "[$0, $100[", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "[$75, $100[", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "[$50, $75[", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "[$25, $50[", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "[$0, $25[", + "name": "No official winner in 2021", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Follow GameStop's stock price here: [https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME)", + "description": "The second round of the presidential election is scheduled on February 21, 2021.", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -852,12 +798,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "≥ 6,000", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "≤ 5,000", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -890,12 +836,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.8285714285714285, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17142857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/metaculus-questions.csv b/data/metaculus-questions.csv index 8f77ba2..4fde9b5 100644 --- a/data/metaculus-questions.csv +++ b/data/metaculus-questions.csv @@ -1,5 +1,5 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" -"Will the Universe end?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one. +"Will the Universe end?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one. The question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether ""The Universe"" will end. Even posing this question is not very straightforward, as ""The Universe"" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions. When we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the ""sky"" at some ""distance."" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [""observiball""](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [""lightcone,""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less. @@ -7,17 +7,17 @@ Turning this around to look into the future, we can consider the ""Affectiball," We can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [""heat death""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that ""interesting things"" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question: Is the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite? If so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.) -",560,3 -"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an ""Interplanetary Transport System"" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach. +",567,3 +"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an ""Interplanetary Transport System"" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach. The timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX ""gets lucky and things go according to plan"", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. There have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline. Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030? -",5053,3 -"Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the ""natural"" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan? +",5071,3 +"Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the ""natural"" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan? A [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. Who will win? Resolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049. -",828,3 +",838,3 "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. In additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology. Private efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts? @@ -31,19 +31,19 @@ To gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of ""Ems" Will the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains? Resolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then. (Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.) -",420,3 +",421,3 "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe). Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it. Will there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? This question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union. It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name. -",860,3 +",864,3 "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. Machine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long? Assume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. Question resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040. Note that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040. -",960,3 +",964,3 "Robocup Challenge","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Robocup Challenge](http://www.robocup.org/objective) was launched in the mid-1990s as a ""grand challenge"" in robotics. The stated goal of the challenge is: By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. On the road to this challenge, annual Robocup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events. @@ -66,14 +66,14 @@ Resolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) When will the first law be passed in the US concerning AI? Resolution will occur if/when a bill with ""Artificial Intelligence"" or ""AI"" in either the long or short official title or official description listed at [https://www.gpo.gov/](https://www.gpo.gov/) or other equivalent source. ",422,3 -"If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you ""wake up""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question. +"If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you ""wake up""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question. The basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html).) The ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservation-prize-be-awarded-by-the-brain-preservation-foundation/) regarding the ""large brain preservation prize"" discusses some of the advances. Many questions remain however, including: Is it even in principle possible to reconstruct an individual human mind out of a frozen brain? If so, how much accuracy in preservation is necessary? Do current techniques have the requisite accuracy? How advanced will the reconstruction technology be, and when would/might that exist? etc., etc. Let's assume that an individual as of the reading of the question signs up with one of the top three (by number of currently preserved individuals). What is the probability that the individual will ""wake up"" in essentially the same or better form than they died? We'll consider success if the revived individual has full mental faculties, an essentially complete set of memories of their former life, and a personality that is at least difficult for them or others to discern from the original. We'll assume for these purposes that the individual's last heartbeat (at least for some time) occurs in a hospital or similar setting where the body can be immediately cooled and moved (if not there already) to a facility for cryonic preservation, and that the individual dies with a relatively healthy brain intact. Note: like a few other Metaculus questions, we don't expect this to actually resolve. Rather it is a ""headline"" question that could fold in the results of others. Suggestions for shorter-term, resolvable questions that would bear upon the probabilities of this one are invited in the comments below. -",546,3 +",552,3 "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to: 1-- @@ -130,7 +130,7 @@ More recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelli This is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask: By end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? Resolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams. -",686,3 +",693,3 "Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [""verbal approval""](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.) But other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1). Although implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs. @@ -143,13 +143,13 @@ The [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which 23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging. Will a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022? This question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date. -",606,3 +",651,3 "Will humans go extinct by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event. In 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'. Therefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.) N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith. -",696,3 +",697,3 "Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. Augmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).) Will VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025? @@ -182,7 +182,7 @@ Resolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or 11-Another place in the Solar System. Resolution is ambiguous if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) does not resolve positive by 2050. If [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) resolves positive, the location of the natural environment will be assessed by scientific consensus (as judged by Metaculus administrators). If, by 2060, there is no such consensus, it resolves ambiguous. If several places would qualify, this question resolves as the first example discovered. ",83,3 -"Increased off-world population in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. +"Increased off-world population in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. Up-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/) For the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. The highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. @@ -191,7 +191,7 @@ This uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible Because of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the population be higher than the current maximum? Will the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13? If clarification is needed of what counts as ""human"", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). ""Off of planet Earth"" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records. -",472,3 +",478,3 "Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime ""metrics"" one can write down with the requisite properties. There is one major physical issue standing in the way actually making them, however: all these possibilities require negative energy. More specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as ""energy conditions."" Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the ""weak energy condition"" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good relativity text like [this one](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9712019) for more gory detail, and [here](http://strangebeautiful.com/papers/curiel-primer-energy-conds.pdf) for a recent, interesting review.) @@ -255,7 +255,7 @@ In order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must We are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown. It is asked: By 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? -",430,3 +",433,3 "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/","Metaculus","[]","In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in. International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations. Others speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/). @@ -263,7 +263,7 @@ Despite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://ww What do you think? When will we cross the threshold? For a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. (Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.) -",363,3 +",365,3 "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016. That busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) All very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): @@ -284,7 +284,7 @@ Many people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi [AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that Although it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used. At some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025? -",371,3 +",372,3 "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists). But whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that: The [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago. @@ -298,7 +298,7 @@ Russia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://ww It's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an ""aggressive"" time line. Can we get there before the 2030s? Resolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise. -",448,3 +",453,3 "When will there be a mile-high building?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/","Metaculus","[]","The [Burj Khalifa](http://www.burjkhalifa.ae/en/index.aspx) towers over the Dubai desert at 2,717 feet (828 meters; for this question [United States customary units](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_customary_units) are appropriate), making it currently (as of March 2018) the tallest manmade building in the world. It’s held that record since 2008, and it bests the next tallest skyscraper, the [Shanghai Towers](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/shanghai-tower/56) in Shanghai, China by nearly 650 feet. (One World Trade Center, the tallest building in the U.S., lags behind at 1,776 feet.) But guess what, Burj? Your days of being #1 are (probably) numbered. Several projects on the development slate are on schedule to overtake Dubai’s neo-futuristic megatall landmark. Among them: @@ -318,13 +318,13 @@ Will a 4-year GDP doubling complete (slow takeoff) before a 1-year doubling (fas Resolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units). There will be an ambiguous resolution if there is no 4 year (nor 1 year) doubling interval by 2050, to isolate specifically the takeoff speed from other things like the chances of no takeoff occurring at all or human extinction. ",293,3 -"Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","SpaceX has released plans for an ""Interplanetary Transport System"" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars. +"Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","SpaceX has released plans for an ""Interplanetary Transport System"" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars. In typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars. In another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030. This question sets a scaled-back goal: Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? This will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030. -",1091,3 +",1101,3 "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” On the one hand, Puerto Ricans can: --- @@ -349,7 +349,7 @@ To become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Although there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained): While Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago. What do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035. -",394,3 +",395,3 "Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/). The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.) As of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain. It is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive? @@ -413,7 +413,7 @@ How long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out? Can we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? For these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military. ",225,3 -"Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day. +"Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day. [Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/): According to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market. The question is: can we do this? @@ -426,7 +426,7 @@ Here are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scien ---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. What do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen? Question resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year. -",364,3 +",366,3 "When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/","Metaculus","[]","Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to ""phone home"" even from its position [beyond the heliosheath](https://eyes.jpl.nasa.gov/eyes-on-voyager.html). How we keep in touch with this little spacehip that could--currently 141 AUs away from us [and counting](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/), as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As [NASA explains](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/did-you-know/): The sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level. @@ -441,7 +441,7 @@ Question will resolve to the time of the last signal received, after no signal h Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024? This question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025. ",222,3 -"Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (""Lock him up!""), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities. +"Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (""Lock him up!""), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities. Donald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career. For him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last. 1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case). @@ -456,7 +456,7 @@ Number 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially We will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason? This question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated Note that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive. -",1324,3 +",1335,3 "Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","We often take the advance of IT technology for granted and even believe it to be progressing at an exponential rate. While Moore's Law has (by some definitions) continued to hold, the data economists have generated when they estimated [the amount of investment required to have equal quality IT equipment over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA), reveals that in some sense progress has slowed down. While quality progress was exponential for a long time too, the last approximately ten years have not been all that great. The inverse of the linked-to index can be seen as a kind of estimation of the quality of information technology at a given time. (The predictor is encouraged to export the data into excel and look at the evolution of the inverse of the index and the percentage improvement over the last 8 years over time.) For example(s), the percentage increase in quality between Q1 1990 and Q1 1998 was 333.5%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2000 and Q1 2008 was 172.6%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2010 and Q1 2018 was 11.2%. Will the percentage increase in quality over an 8-year time period fall below 0% prior to 2030? Or will progress pick up again to the pace it was at in the 1990s? @@ -484,18 +484,18 @@ Boom’s goal: [commercial SST flight by 2023](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/scie What do you think? When will the next commercial flight break the sound barrier? Resolution is at the date/time at which a supersonic flight is flown on an aircraft designed for passenger use and operated by a company intending to use it for such purpose, over a distance of more than 1000 km. The contemplated timeline runs from late-2018 through 2030. ETA 2020-11-26: Rockets or any type of hypersonic aircraft do not count as qualifying aircrafts for the purpose of this question. -",269,3 +",281,3 "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins. In order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens. So, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? Data for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself. -",582,3 -"Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval. +",583,3 +"Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval. In 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that. Canada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024? Resolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. -",363,3 -"Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible. +",365,3 +"Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible. Recently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans. It is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? This questions resolves positive if: @@ -509,7 +509,7 @@ The resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at Here is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • Also note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question. -",306,3 +",309,3 "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. Will Roe vs. Wade be reversed? We specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy? @@ -532,7 +532,7 @@ By 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at The demographers' full paper is [here](http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247816663557). The International Institute for Environment and Development goes into detail about why Hoornweg and Pope are so bullish on Africa [here](https://www.iied.org/will-africa-have-worlds-largest-cities-2100). Whether it's Lagos that claims the crown or some other city in Africa or elsewhere, what do you think? Will some metro hit 100M people by 2100? (For the estimate we will include the general metropolitan area rather than the strict city boundaries, as done [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population#Urban_areas_(Top_100).)) -",271,3 +",272,3 "How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/","Metaculus","[]","The ancient pyramids of Egypt are ridiculously cool. Construction began over 4500 years ago, and these awesome structures, despite having [been raided](http://www.ancient-egypt-online.com/ancient-egypt-tomb-robbers.html) over the centuries and stripped of their beautiful [white limestone](https://www.fastcodesign.com/3037815/the-great-pyramid-used-to-be-so-shiny-it-glowed) exteriors, inspire millions. Rebuilding them would be a massive project, although it probably could be done for a cool [$5 billion](https://www.livescience.com/18589-cost-build-great-pyramid-today.html) or so--for just the Great Pyramid of Giza, that is. @@ -605,7 +605,7 @@ Charles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhis Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901. And there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. It's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President? -",280,3 +",281,3 "Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil). It is asked: Will Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions? @@ -613,10 +613,10 @@ Note that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the th
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive.
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative.
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution.
    • To help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction. ",193,3 -"Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The ""global"" value is the relevant one here.) +"Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The ""global"" value is the relevant one here.) Will this goal be realized? The WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached. -",248,3 +",258,3 "Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/","Metaculus","[]","This is the first question of the [Fermi paradox series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox). In a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) Dissolving the Fermi Paradox by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler & Toby Ord of the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, the Drake's Equation was run as a Monte Carlo Simulation rather than a point estimate using the following distributions for the parameters of the Drake's Equation; Parameter Distribution: @@ -735,7 +735,7 @@ A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-inte So, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? Some examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. (Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.) -",497,3 +",498,3 "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour. Over the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate. @@ -756,7 +756,7 @@ As some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of 4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. 5--1 said it would depend on the model. 6--22 offered no opinion. -",205,3 +",206,3 "When will one TeraFlOPS cost $1?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/","Metaculus","[]","The performance capabilities of computers (e.g. CPUs, GPUs and Supercomputers) are expressed in [floating point operations per second (FLOPS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS), a standard rate for indicating the number of floating-point arithmetic calculations systems can perform per second. Currently (09/09/2018), the [ NVIDIA TITAN V GPU]( https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/titan/titan-v/), has one of the lowest theoretical performance cost at $27.27 per TFLOPS ( FLOPS), with a price of $3000 and a theoretical peak performance of 110 Tensor TFLOPS. However, theoretical peak performance relies on the accelerating parts, and generally does not involve other hardware such as memory, network or I/O devices. [An analysis of GPU performance](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0010465511000452), finds that theoretical predictions of maximum theoretical performance of three different GPUs to be higher by around 30% when compared to experimental results. [Similar work on CPUs ]( http://spiral.ece.cmu.edu:8080/pub-spiral/pubfile/ispass-2013_177.pdf ) has found discrepancies between actual and theoretical maximum performance of generally within a factor of 10. @@ -781,19 +781,19 @@ But they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically f ESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but: Will humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100? Will resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with > 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs. -",506,3 +",509,3 "Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the US, enrollment in 4-year colleges has been steadily increasing since the 1970s, [from around 17.1% to 29.9% in 2015.](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp ) Despite this, the economist Bryan Caplan [has recently argued](https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11225.html) that this time spent in college by an increasing proportion of youth is wasteful, as the primary function of education is not to enhance students' skill but to certify their intelligence, work ethic, and conformity — in other words, to signal the qualities of a good employee. As increasing numbers of students get more degrees, the harder it becomes to remain competitive in the job market without spending lots of time in education — essentially creating a prisoner's dilemma in which it is individually rational, but socially harmful to waste evermore time getting degrees. This has made some confident that educational enrolment will only increase over time, including the aforementioned economist [who has been placing bets on this.](https://www.econlib.org/education-the-betting-continues/) Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges in 2025 be more than 10% lower than in 2015? Since the 2015 rate is 29.9%, positive resolution is conditional on a rate 26.91% or less in 2025 [as reported by data from the National Center for Education Statistics](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp ). -",187,3 +",188,3 "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/","Metaculus","[]","For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station). With China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic. The currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’ When will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space? Will resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit. -",221,3 +",223,3 "When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1435/when-will-the-longest-spaceflight-of-any-one-person-reach-5-years/","Metaculus","[]","The [ISS year long mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISS_year_long_mission) set out to explore the health effects of long duration spaceflight. Astronaut Scott Kelly and cosmonaut Mikhail Kornienko spent 342 days in space for this mission, checking their health but they were also keeping a journal to write down how they felt. After all, there are more angles to consider than just physical health for these kind of things. But this wasn't the first mission of its kind. There were three other, longer spaceflights, lasting 365, 379 and 437 days respectively. So we wonder: When will longest duration anyone has ever been in space surpass 5 years? @@ -930,7 +930,7 @@ Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur 10- [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically. -",248,3 +",249,3 "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions. The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at ""somewhere between one out of three and even"". Twenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/). There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover, most of these incidents on our timeline were reported by US sources, and there is no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea. @@ -1131,8 +1131,8 @@ Meanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin o On the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the ""Europa Clipper"" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the ""Lunar Gateway"" space station as currently envisioned. How will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads? Question will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later. -",189,3 -"Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored. +",190,3 +"Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored. This finding was later found for human brains by various studies, and it contradicted the previous longstanding ""dogma"" that adult brains don't form new neurons. The current leading theory of why NG occurs in the adult HC (if it does) is that it isn't some kind of regulatory failure (cancer, etc.) but that plays some functional role, perhaps in short-term memory storage. In some neuroscience models, we are thought to store massive amounts of info in our HC over the last day or two of our lives, in synaptic connections, and we are also thought to flush this store out regularly, with only a subset of those memories being ""written to the cortex"" for long-term storage, usually while we dream and sleep. Adult NG is presumed by some to help this somehow, or play some other functional role. But a [March 2018 Nature paper](https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/study-finds-no-neurogenesis-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-29987) by Sorrells and Paredes at UCSF recently found sharply decining NG after the age of 1 year in human brains, and no NG in humans after the age of 13 yrs. @@ -1146,19 +1146,19 @@ Adult human NG exists and is functionally important to us throughout our lifespa NG doesn't exist in significant numbers in older humans, or if it does occur it isn't functionally important. Assuming we find out by 2028, which will it be? Resolution is positive for option 1. Resolves positive if a definitive study or set of studies best accords with option 1, negative if it best accords with option 2. We'll define ""definitive"" as at least one study published in a top-tier journal (top 10 in the field by impact factor) with strong evidence for 1 or 2, along with the absence of a competitively compelling publication giving evidence for the other possibility, as of Jan 1 2028. Resolves ambiguous if not definitive. -",143,3 +",146,3 "Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as ""Satoshi Nakamoto"", the maverick who developed bitcoin. Haven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator): ON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. Will we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive. Question resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??) -",460,3 +",468,3 "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/","Metaculus","[]","The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period). In the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. Commercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)). But when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space? For the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded. -",275,3 +",278,3 "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve. What is the ultimate fate of the ""stuff"" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable. After we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void. @@ -1226,7 +1226,7 @@ However, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/ There are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead. Will the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035? Resolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise. -",126,3 +",127,3 "Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect. As of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found what is in their air, not how much or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet. Sadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. @@ -1305,11 +1305,11 @@ Note that the answer to this question could be never and that a non-never resolu Data for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalized relative to the 1951-1980 baseline and 1880 stands at -0.19, so the critical value to look for is 1.81 (for temperature anomaly). It is possible, though, that the linked-to data source will no longer be available in a few years, in which case the best alternative (as of the judgement of Metaculus staff) shall be used for resolution. Closing date is set to 2025, but should resolution triggering information become available earlier, the question shall close retroactively one year prior to that information becoming available. (In all cases in which the question was still open at some point within one year of the information becoming available.) ",145,3 -"Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). +"Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). Whereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%. It is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars? This question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket. -",414,3 +",417,3 "The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/","Metaculus","[]","In a related [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/), we looked at Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer, and forecasted that multiple's trend. For this question we'll be looking at the growth of the top 500 supercomputers as a group. Their group performance is measured by the sum of the 500's top supercomputers' [Linpack Benchmark](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/), which reflects the performance of a dedicated system for solving a dense system of linear equations. Specifically, this question asks by what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by 2030 in comparison to the performance of the top 500 supercomputers in 2015? Here are some examples of 15-year total-sum Linpack Benchmark factor increases: @@ -1423,7 +1423,7 @@ This resolves positively if by 1 January 2050, "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field. This question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. -",236,3 +",237,3 "What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2018, the record for longest verified human lifespan is held by Jeanne Louise Calment of Arles, France. She lived from 21 February 1875 to 4 August 1997, for a term of 122 years, 164 days. She has held the record for longest confirmed human lifespan since 12 May 1990, was the first human ever to have been confirmed to have lived to the age of 116 years, and is the only human confirmed to have ever lived beyond 120 years. Calment reportedly remained mentally intact until the end of her life, and the New York Times reported that she had been in good health, though almost blind and deaf, as recently as a month before her death. She died of unspecified causes. The oldest verified person currently alive, as of 8 December 2018, is Kane Tanaka of Japan. She was born on 2 January 1903 and at time of question writing is 115 years, 338 days old. If she is still alive on January 1 2050, she will be 146 years, 11 months, 30 days old. @@ -1431,7 +1431,7 @@ Here are the lists of oldest [verified people ever](https://en.wikipedia.org/wik As of January 1 2050, what will be the longest verified human lifespan on record, in years? To avoid ambiguity in the event that someone is unconscious (perhaps for a long time) before their death, this question shall focus on age at legal death. If a person is declared legally dead by competent authorities, their age at the time their legal death takes effect shall be considered their age at death, even in the event that their physical body may still exist and certain biological functions may be maintained by extraordinary means. In case a person successfully emerges from cryopreservation between now and 2050, all time spent legally dead before and during cryopreservation shall be deducted from their lifespan. I have selected a maximum age possibility of 200, substantially above the maximum possible if Ms Tanaka lives to 2050, to account for the possibility that there are substantially older persons currently alive but unknown to gerontologists, or people with unverified claims whose claims subsequently become verified. -",178,3 +",179,3 "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft. This question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050? @@ -1472,13 +1472,13 @@ Before Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life All transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation. For the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs. ",232,3 -"Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network) +"Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network) The fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind. Since the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes. This question asks: At any point before 2030, will it once again be possible by any commercial means to travel between London and New York in less than three hours? To resolve positively, at least one living human must make the journey from inside the metropolitan area of either New York City, United States or Greater London, United Kingdom, to inside the metropolitan area of the other city in under three hours any point before January 1 2030 by commercially available means, including chartered privately owned or operated civil aircraft or spacecraft, but not military aircraft or spacecraft. The clock starts at the moment the journey itself begins (i.e. excluding time spent checking in, going through a security process, waiting on the tarmac at an airport before takeoff, et cetera.) -",273,3 +",280,3 "Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The unemployment rate in the United States averaged 5.77% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 10.80% in November of 1982 and a record low of 2.50% in May of 1953. According to the most recent data available (for November 2018) at the time of question writing, the national unemployment rate in the United States is 3.7%. You can view historical data [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate). At any point before January 1 2023, will the US unemployment rate meet or exceed 10%? For a positive resolution, data confirming 10% or greater unemployment must be sourced from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, or, if that body no longer exists, credible media reports in the financial press. @@ -1589,7 +1589,7 @@ Resolves positively if and when credible media reports announce that a person ha Persons born above this altitude (including on space stations or on astronomical objects other than Earth) are not included for purposes of this question, unless they later complete a qualifying spaceflight. Flights made from bodies other than Earth do not count. Persons must be alive and conscious (e.g. not in suspended animation or some other state of unconsciousness or minimal consciousness) when they cross the 100km boundary, but need not survive their full mission beyond that point in order to be counted. Finally, the number refers to the number of people to have made the flight, not the total number of flights - reflights made by the same person do not add to the total. -",150,3 +",154,3 "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) There are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. Some identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. @@ -1601,7 +1601,7 @@ In February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt t This question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space? Resolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred. Resources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples. -",238,3 +",239,3 "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market. It hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)). This question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023. @@ -1641,7 +1641,7 @@ I have not specified the name of the 'final book' as [""A Dream of Spring""](htt --- For a book to fulfil resolution criteria, GRRM or his representatives must announce the book as being the full resolution of the series prior to its publication. It should not be described as the [posthumous] publication of an edited incomplete draft or similar (which would make it analogous to [The Salmon of Doubt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Salmon_of_Doubt) or [Unfinished Tales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfinished_Tales)). ------The Metaculus community consensus should agree that the book is an 'acceptable attempted resolution' to the ASOIAF story arc, and the print version should ideally include indications that the book is the end of the story (e.g. ""The End"" printed on the final pages). (The intention of this criterion is to avoid a situation where GRRM or his publishers say that they're releasing the final book but the story isn't actually 'done', to the extent that there are so many unresolved plot points and 'missing' foreshadowed events that it's clear that the narrative has been significantly cut short from what was originally planned by GRRM. Of course, it's almost inevitable that there will be one or two loose ends at the end, but that's not what I'm describing. I hope the Metaculus community will be sensible enough to draw the desired distinction.) -",329,3 +",332,3 "When will PHP die?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/","Metaculus","[]","[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. According to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all): PHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know. @@ -1663,15 +1663,15 @@ Despite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming l ---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) This question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath. General language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question. -",94,3 -"Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. +",96,3 +"Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. In the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide. In the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation. This question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election) Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election. Resolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner. Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022. -",476,3 +",488,3 "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner. In a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously. In a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation. @@ -1773,7 +1773,7 @@ In the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinite When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved? The question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously. An [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative. -",133,3 +",134,3 "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) ! For this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) . Similar questions: @@ -1809,7 +1809,7 @@ If, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that In the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States. In the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results. In the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously. -",606,3 +",608,3 "Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context ======= @@ -1925,15 +1925,15 @@ If the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be con The consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least capable of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect. Will such an agent infect 100 people by 2030? This question resolves positive if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed ""infected"" by one or more confirmed synthetic ""biological weapon""s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause. -",152,3 -"Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [The euro is the second largest and second most traded currency in the global foreign exchange market after the United States dollar.](https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf) +",153,3 +"Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [The euro is the second largest and second most traded currency in the global foreign exchange market after the United States dollar.](https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf) The Eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Other EU states (except for Denmark and the United Kingdom) are obliged to join once they meet the criteria to do so. No state has left, and there are no provisions to do so or to be expelled. Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City have formal agreements with the EU to use the euro as their official currency and issue their own coins, and Kosovo and Montenegro have adopted the euro unilaterally, but these countries do not officially form part of the Eurozone and do not have representation in the European Central Bank (ECB) or in the Eurogroup. This question asks: On or before January 1 2025, will any full Member State of the Eurozone as of February 10 2019 (that is, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain) cease to use the Euro as its official currency? Note that this question does not apply to Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Kosovo, Montenegro, or any states that come to be Eurozone members after February 10 2019; only those expressly listed in the paragraph above. This question also does not apply to the overseas territories of countries which have agreements to use the euro (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and Saint-Barthélemy.) Resolution is by citation of a press release from the Government or Central Bank of any of the relevant countries, or by credible media reports in the financial press, to the effect that the relevant country actually starts the process of phasing out the Euro as its official currency before 2025, and replacing it with either an existing currency (including but not limited to the US dollar, British pound, Japanese Yen and other reserve currencies extant as of 2019) or introducing (or re-introducing) a national currency of its own. A decision to temporarily leave the Eurozone for a fixed period or until certain conditions are met shall also suffice for a positive resolution. -",215,3 +",216,3 "When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/","Metaculus","[]","The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress. MICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. [For the current 2019 fiscal year](https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups), low-income economies are defined as those with a GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method, of $995 or less in 2017; lower middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $996 and $3,895; upper middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055; high-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of $12,056 or more. These thresholds are adjusted over time taking into account the average inflation in the G-5 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France), and from 2001, that of Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the eurozone. Thus, the thresholds remain constant in real terms over time. @@ -2036,14 +2036,14 @@ According to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldba Question: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)? Estimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers. This question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/). -",766,3 -"Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176) +",769,3 +"Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176) [Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) Will a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025? In order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. A positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. A mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question. -",1049,3 +",1061,3 "Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER) is an international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject. It is an experimental [tokamak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokamak) nuclear fusion reactor which will be the world's largest magnetic confinement plasma physics experiment. With thirty-five participating nations and an expected price tag [in excess of €20 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER#Funding), it is one of the largest international [scientific megaprojects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_megaprojects#Science_projects). ITER began in 1985 as a Reagan–Gorbachev initiative with the equal participation of the Soviet Union, the European Atomic Energy Community, the United States, and Japan through the 1988–1998 initial design phases. @@ -2066,7 +2066,7 @@ Will a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 ye For a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them. (Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.) -",159,3 +",161,3 "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). AIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype. HIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)] @@ -2121,7 +2121,7 @@ Farage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated In May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom), becoming by far the largest party by number of UK seats in the European Parliament, and also the largest single party overall in the European Parliament. This question asks: Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland? Resolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise. -",209,3 +",212,3 "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on. While they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be. Over time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected. @@ -2149,7 +2149,7 @@ The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SL Will the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024? This question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. See also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/) -",197,3 +",201,3 "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.050000000000000044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II. Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come. This question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2024, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by: @@ -2195,7 +2195,7 @@ Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture: ---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) ---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) ---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) -",179,3 +",187,3 "Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true and when it will be resolved one way or another. Here we ask more specifically whether we can predict the behavior of the corresponding program. Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer. @@ -2248,11 +2248,11 @@ Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture: ---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) ---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) ---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) -",73,3 -"Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018. +",74,3 +"Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018. In any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels? Resolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question. -",347,3 +",361,3 "If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/","Metaculus","[]","Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)] WBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] An approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue. @@ -2295,7 +2295,7 @@ The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SL When will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon? This question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036. See also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/) -",119,3 +",120,3 "If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/","Metaculus","[]","The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows: ---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which ------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, @@ -2382,7 +2382,7 @@ Resolution: ---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) ---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. ---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous. -",157,3 +",159,3 "When will an AI pass the laugh test?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/","Metaculus","[]","In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet: ...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh. For the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.) @@ -2432,7 +2432,7 @@ This question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Orga By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually. By 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count. This question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization. -",124,3 +",127,3 "When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/","Metaculus","[]","The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency. A promising possibility is [xenotransplantation](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/xenotransplantation), in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.) There are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be [rejected very quickly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Hyperacute_rejection) by human hosts. Second, [pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Porcine_endogenous_retroviruses) (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts. @@ -2449,7 +2449,7 @@ Recently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/19 [DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps. When will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00? This question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal. -",129,3 +",134,3 "When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/","Metaculus","[]","[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). An IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8). When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company? Resolution @@ -2461,7 +2461,7 @@ This question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/quest [When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/) [How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/) [When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/) -",203,3 +",208,3 "When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/","Metaculus","[]","[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. Alternative meat product company valuations can take off quickly, as illustrated by the example of Beyond Meat, which within 10 years has grown its market capitalisation [beyond $10bn](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=beyond+meat+market+cap&meta=). When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn, in 2019 prices? @@ -2474,7 +2474,7 @@ This question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/quest [How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/) [When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/) [When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/) -",128,3 +",130,3 "How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/","Metaculus","[]","[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). If success in the production and commercialisation of clean meat is easily replicable by competitors, one might expect that multiple companies will reach the $1bn milestone in short succession of each other. This may occur if clean meat companies face a common limiting factor, that is removed by way of scientific discovery that is used to lower costs, or by sudden regulatory change. Moreover, if the clean meat market is expected to be very valuable, then more companies will be trying to succeed, resulting in more competition that may be more beneficial if we want clean meat products to replace a non-trivial portion of existing markets for meat more quickly. @@ -2521,7 +2521,7 @@ Resolution details: ---Resolution is by credible media report. ---This is insensitive to the project changing name, being bought by another company, etc. as long as it is the same project as judged by a Metaculus admin. ---The end of 2027 is 2027-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. -",186,3 +",188,3 "When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/","Metaculus","[]","The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/): For small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public. In 2015, ""restaurant"" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners ""food for thought"" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using ""in vitro"" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner? @@ -2691,7 +2691,7 @@ Residents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, ar 'Residence' is defined and determined by the government or entity administering the colony, or a similar official source. In case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans. Resolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100. -",233,3 +",234,3 "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/","Metaculus","[]","As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx). Commercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf). How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is less than $8 per kg? @@ -2736,7 +2736,7 @@ If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves a Since 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006. Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031? This question resolves on the basis of data published by the Congressional Research Service. -",93,3 +",94,3 "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/). According to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability. Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org))? @@ -2798,7 +2798,7 @@ This question resolves as the date when it's first true that 100 people or more [The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. This question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030? This question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question. -",252,3 +",253,3 "What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/","Metaculus","[]","The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART). Note how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric. What will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2025? @@ -2952,7 +2952,7 @@ However, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the sus This question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period? This question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025. If before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously. -",182,3 +",183,3 "When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3239/when-will-a-clean-meat-flavoring-product-be-approved-for-human-consumption/","Metaculus","[]","The first commercial product we might see from the growth of animal cells is not a piece of cultivated meat to eat, but rather meat flavoring. This would be something like Impossible's 'heme' additive, but built from cultivated meat. It seems extremely likely that FDA or USDA approval is necessary before cultivated meat flavoring would be added to food for sale in the US, so we'll ask: When will a cultivated meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption? @@ -3030,7 +3030,7 @@ This question should close two weeks before the date of the election, which will "When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/","Metaculus","[]","According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31. When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)? This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70. -",200,3 +",203,3 "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/","Metaculus","[]","In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). This was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent. The Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a ""max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds"", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server. @@ -3118,7 +3118,7 @@ Related question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserve To find out when such technology will be developed, this question asks: When will the first person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded, conditional on this occurring before 1. January 2200? For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person. Related question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/) -",96,3 +",97,3 "Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford) was the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been in preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at [Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation). His preservation was rather primitive and late: Bedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural causes related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern cryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was primitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and 85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term cryogenics […]. @@ -3170,7 +3170,7 @@ Resolution details: ---This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports. ---In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable. ---If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached. -",193,3 +",199,3 "If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/","Metaculus","[]","The Labour party has [announced a plan to bring free full-fiber broadband to every home and business in the UK](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50427369) by partially nationalizing BT. Labour believes that this plan will cost £20bn, though the Conservatives have criticized this, claiming that it is likely to cost £83bn over 10 years and that nationalisation will discourage private investment. The UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071). If, in the 2019 election, Labour, or a coalition with Labour making up the majority of seats, forms a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024? @@ -3239,7 +3239,7 @@ In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.v Will ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults? Resolution For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. -",227,3 +",228,3 "Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. For the last three decades, the microelectronic industry has benefited enormously from the [MOSFET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSFET) miniaturisation. The shrinking of transistors to dimensions below 100 nm enables hundreds of millions transistors to be placed on a single chip. However, it is well-known that the currently most commonly used semiconductor device design method that has dominated for the past two-three decades, planar [CMOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS), runs into serious issues at the microscopic scale. One of these issue arises from practical limits related to 'leak' current at small gate lengths [(Thompson et al, 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369702106715395#aep-section-id14). This leakage current wastes power, raises the temperature and, if excessive, can cause the device to fail. Leakage becomes a serious problem when insulating barriers within transistors approach thicknesses of 3 nanometres or so (currently, in 2019, some transistors are ~ 5nm thick). Below that, leakage increases exponentially, rendering the device pretty near useless. @@ -3284,7 +3284,7 @@ SpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 20 This question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars? In the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. If SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously. -",398,3 +",400,3 "By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). The key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness. The main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)) @@ -3465,7 +3465,7 @@ When this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000 If Metaculus evolves so much that either ""resolution"" or ""Metaculus question"" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous. --- If the concepts of ""when"", ""will"", ""last"" or ""occur"" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)). -",142,3 +",145,3 "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come. Pathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4). Pathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPCC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). @@ -3518,7 +3518,7 @@ In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny ha --- If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively. Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively. -",513,3 +",515,3 "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted. One notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached. Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States? @@ -3567,17 +3567,17 @@ This question resolves positive if a single geoengineering effort to fertilise a The fertiliser must contain the equivalent of 50 tonnes of iron, which contains [895335 moles of iron](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). Hence, fertilisers that contain compounds of iron must also contain at least 895335 moles of iron. For example, [136 tonnes of iron sulfate (FeSO4)](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron+Sulfate/to/grams) contains roughly 895335 moles of iron. In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight. A single geoengineering effort is here defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of various organisations (e.g. national government, research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed. ",104,3 -"Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. +"Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. The Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001. [The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024. This question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition? This question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed. This question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event. -",307,3 +",317,3 "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding. This question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? Resolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea. -",1246,3 +",1247,3 "When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3447/when-will-two-or-more-supermarkets-sell-products-made-of-20-clean-fish-in-their-physical-retail-stores-in-at-least-25-us-states/","Metaculus","[]","One of the earliest produced clean meat product was a clean fish product. In 2002, researchers working on the the fabrication of surrogate muscle protein constructs as food products for Space travelers grew goldfish cells grown to resemble fish fillets [(Benjaminson et al, 2002)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12416526). However, since then, most clean meat companies have been focussed on producing the meat of livestock and poultry (see [here for a list](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies)). There are several clean fish companies, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/). We might expect that if clean beef or clean chicken matures before clean fish, the regulatory challenges of bringing clean fish to market could be reduced. In the United States, the USDA and FDA jointly oversee the production of cell based meat products. The FDA oversees cell collection and growth while the USDA will oversee cell harvesting and labelling. Currently, the USDA and FDA refer to cell based meet as food products derived from the cells of livestock and poultry. The official term(s) and labelling rules are yet to be determined, but the FDA and USDA [outlined the regulatory framework](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/wps/wcm/connect/0d2d644a-9a65-43c6-944f-ea598aacdec1/Formal-Agreement-FSIS-FDA.pdf?MOD=AJPERES) in a way that [has been described to](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian) ""[provide] a transparent path to market for cell-based meat products,”, according to Elan Abrell, a senior regulatory specialist at the [Good Food Institute](https://www.gfi.org/). When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 states? @@ -3603,7 +3603,7 @@ A single geoengineering effort is a project in which the relevant actors act on In case the fertiliser is a compound of iron, such as iron sulfate, the question resolves as the elemental weight of iron, which is to be converted using the relevant formula that specifies how many moles of iron the total weight of the fertiliser contains, which is then converted to the weight of elemental iron using the formula or [a converter](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight. This question resolves ambiguously no such relevant geoengineering effort occurs before the end of 2026. ",70,3 -"Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660): +"Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660): I think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived. If half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's. This question resolves positively if any of the terms ""aging"", ""ageing"", ""anti-aging"", ""anti-ageing"", ""longevity"", ""lifespan"", ""rejuvenation"", or ""life extension"" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC: @@ -3620,7 +3620,7 @@ It also resolves positively if: Otherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030. In case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event. * ""longevity research"" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard. -",169,3 +",170,3 "Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion. As of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point. This question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively. @@ -3673,7 +3673,7 @@ Be able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human Be able to learn the classic Atari game ""Montezuma's revenge"" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of ""introspection"" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.) Resolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public. -",454,3 +",458,3 "Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01): Venture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines—often called me-too drugs—and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade. He plans to do that unsing technology (ibid.): @@ -3699,7 +3699,7 @@ By 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 553 In the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight. This question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? This question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human. -",155,3 +",159,3 "Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II. Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. (Indeed, there have been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.) This question (which any sane person will hope resolves negatively) regards the probability that a nuclear war will occur by Jan 1, 2070. (Different questions address this separately, but none directly.) There is a great paucity of public and useful estimates of this probability. See for example [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3137081) for an outline of considerations (but no bottom-line numbers.) @@ -3727,7 +3727,7 @@ Some specifics: ---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. ---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). ---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. -",401,3 +",402,3 "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/","Metaculus","[]","Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017. Solar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas. According to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.). @@ -3899,7 +3899,7 @@ This question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment Question: When will the United States admit a new state? This question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A ""new state"" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019. It resolves as ""> Dec 31, 2050"" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050. -",159,3 +",160,3 "How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/","Metaculus","[]","The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011. How many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously. ",58,3 @@ -3912,7 +3912,7 @@ This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report ",91,3 "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/","Metaculus","[]","The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue? The admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously. -",215,3 +",216,3 "When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/","Metaculus","[]","The English Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has approximately 6 million articles at the time of writing this question. This question resolves on the date during which the 10 millionth Wikipedia article is created, according to official internal statistics from Wikipedia, such as [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics). ",87,3 @@ -3924,7 +3924,7 @@ This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009. This question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. This question can be resolved at any time. -",279,3 +",280,3 "Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/4/). If the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves negatively. ",77,3 @@ -3959,7 +3959,7 @@ For comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://d Also recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently. I have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. This question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively. -",243,3 +",245,3 "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up. Assume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years? The date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037. @@ -4005,7 +4005,7 @@ Data World Bank data can be [accessed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j7vBfP8CD1Q_MIHqW_AxTgRlC2ThS0pxhthhuDDp4ZI/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments. *Carbon dioxide equivalency (CO₂e) describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gases, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming ability, when measured over a specified time period. For our purposes, greenhouse gas emissions are the sum of the basket of greenhouse gases listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol, expressed as CO2e assuming a 100-year global warming potential. ",105,3 -"Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/). +"Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/). The proposition in question will be taken as: The the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province. That's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [""self-resolving"" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows: @@ -4014,7 +4014,7 @@ If at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97 --- Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution. (Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.) -",2561,3 +",2576,3 "Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-2024-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-covid-19-more-likely-than-not-originated-from-a-laboratory/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19. In a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan: In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. @@ -4039,7 +4039,7 @@ Assessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely tha "Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","An oracle ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem#Oracle), [Lesswrongwiki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI)) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors. This question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally superhuman AI is developed first, the question will immediately resolve negatively. By default, the question will resolve ambiguously on the resolve date, 2099-12-31. Successful creation of either technology would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderators. -",74,3 +",75,3 "When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/","Metaculus","[]","[Quantum computing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing) has shown remarkable advancements in the past decade. In that time, quantum processors went from being almost purely theoretical devices to arguably achieving [computational supremacy](https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20928294/google-quantum-supremacy-sycamore-computer-qubit-milestone) over classical computers in a limited scope. Among the most promising capabilities of any sufficiently powerful quantum computer is their ability to factor very large numbers, the difficulty of which underlies many current cryptography systems. One of the best known quantum algorithms, known as [Shor's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm), has the potential to run almost exponentially faster than the most efficient known classical factoring algorithm. That being said, we’re currently quite a ways away from being able to use it in practice. As of writing, the largest number factored via Shor's algorithm is still [only 21](https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.4147), achieved back in 2012. While current state-of-the-art quantum processors possess on the order of dozens of qubits, it is estimated that in order to factorize semiprimes on the same scale as those used in modern RSA cryptography would take [thousands](https://security.stackexchange.com/questions/87345/how-many-qubits-are-needed-to-factor-2048-bit-rsa-keys-on-a-quantum-computer) [of qubits](https://quantumcomputing.stackexchange.com/questions/5048/how-many-logical-qubits-are-needed-to-run-shors-algorithm-efficiently-on-large). @@ -4157,7 +4157,7 @@ Related questions: ---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) ---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) [ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc. -",161,3 +",162,3 "How many communist states will there be in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/","Metaculus","[]","At present, five states explicitly claim in their constitutions to be socialist, are U.N. member states, and are administered and governed by single communist parties - the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Cuba, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. Simultaneously, several communist groups are engaged in ongoing armed conflicts with existing recognised states. These include the [CPP–NPA–NDF rebellion in the Philippines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_rebellion_in_the_Philippines), [various Naxalite insurgencies in India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naxalite), the conflict [between the Peruvian government and the Communist Party of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_conflict_in_Peru), the conflict [between the Paraguayan government and the Paraguayan People’s Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_Paraguay), as well as the [conflict between several far-left guerilla groups and the Colombian government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombian_conflict). The question asks: How many communist states will there be in 2050? @@ -4245,7 +4245,7 @@ How many new cases of COVID-19 in: ---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) ---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) Similar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/) -",794,3 +",813,3 "When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/","Metaculus","[]","A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention. Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls. (source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen)) @@ -4255,7 +4255,7 @@ Related questions: ---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) ---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) [ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc. -",145,3 +",149,3 "Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2007, a formal apology for slavery [H.Res. 194](https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/house-resolution/194/text) entered the United States congress and was later passed unanimously by the senate. For centuries, animal rights/welfare activists have made the comparison between slavery and animal agriculture. Writing in 1789, Jeremy Bentham [said](https://www.utilitarianism.com/jeremybentham.html) The day has been, I grieve it to say in many places it is not yet past, in which the greater part of the species, under the denomination of slaves, have been treated ... upon the same footing as ... animals are still. The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny. The French have already discovered that the blackness of skin is no reason why a human being should be abandoned without redress to the caprice of a tormentor. [...]. The time will come when humanity will extend its mantle over everything which breathes... "" @@ -4357,19 +4357,19 @@ To qualify for a positive resolution, the discovery must be generally considered Changelog: ---2020-09-16: the sentence ""The life must not have originated from Earth or human efforts"" was changed to ""The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans"". ",232,3 -"Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. +"Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025? Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025. -",1072,3 +",1080,3 "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025? Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025. A flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold). -",567,3 +",570,3 "When will the next Qatari general election be held?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/","Metaculus","[]","Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced. When will Qatar hold its first legislative election? If there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting. @@ -4387,7 +4387,7 @@ Resolution details: To resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050. --- The life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count. -",193,3 +",194,3 "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/","Metaculus","[]","For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console. This question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption. Patents, announcements, and review units do not count. @@ -4408,7 +4408,7 @@ Question resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/","Metaculus","[]","During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired. The question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years? For the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024. -",198,3 +",199,3 "When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/","Metaculus","[]","[Hundreds of social media apps are launched every year](https://www.crunchbase.com/hub/social-media-startups), with most failing to gain traction. Meanwhile, [social media use is booming in the developing world](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2018/06/19/social-media-use-continues-to-rise-in-developing-countries-but-plateaus-across-developed-ones). Occasionally, one of these platforms - for instance, TikTok - [will encounter exponential growth, outperforming its rivals by a significant margin](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/tiktok-hits-15-billion-downloads-outperforming-instagram-2019-11). The question asks: When will a currently-undiscovered social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide? For the purposes of this question, ""currently undiscovered"" is defined as either having fewer than 10,000 downloads across the iOS App Store and the Android Play Store as of March 15, 2020 UTC 00:00, or being non-existent/unavailable to the general public at the time. This question should resolve on the date that a social media app meeting this qualification reaches a combined one billion downloads on Android and iOS devices global. If a new mobile operating system and app store - for instance, Huawei's HarmonyOS - becomes popular enough to significantly affect a global download count, it may be included at moderator discretion. @@ -4471,7 +4471,7 @@ Related Questions: "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf). One reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen. Resolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.) -",256,3 +",266,3 "When will China legalise same-sex marriage?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/","Metaculus","[]","At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980, defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. However, late last year, China's top legislative body has been advised to legalize same-sex marriage in the updated civil code. According to a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/china-hints-it-may-open-the-door-to-same-sex-marriage): The Commission for Legislative Affairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has received more than 237,000 online suggestions and 5,600 letters requesting to clarify the “scope of close relatives, improving the common debt of spouses and legalizing same-sex marriage,” according to the report, which cited Yue Zhongming, spokesman of the commission. @@ -4510,17 +4510,17 @@ We will define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors (via a Resolution will be by UN data, if possible. If the UN will no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution will be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data source. Inspired by [this comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/#comment-25412) of user @j.m. on the [similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) about Mars. ",103,3 -"Will the next US recession turn into a depression?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is ""Will the US Experience a Depression?"" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp): +"Will the next US recession turn into a depression?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is ""Will the US Experience a Depression?"" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp): A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent. According to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression? This question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032: ---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). ---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. -",345,3 +",347,3 "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/","Metaculus","[]","In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. This question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower? Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) -",192,3 +",196,3 "What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops. On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled ""I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming"". Some excerpts: The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021... @@ -4531,7 +4531,7 @@ The question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as t Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: ---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) -",414,3 +",418,3 "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops. On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled ""I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming"". Some excerpts: The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021... @@ -4542,7 +4542,7 @@ The question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: ---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) -",175,3 +",176,3 "By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans), Caenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. [...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal ""wiring diagram"") completed. In 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to ""build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells."" @@ -4622,7 +4622,7 @@ If cryonics is not offered for free to the general public by any organization or "What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank is designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity. As of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022? -",222,3 +",225,3 "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html), This book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning Paul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles, @@ -4730,12 +4730,12 @@ As a negative example, if a dictator created a superintelligence and used it to While it is exceptionally difficult to come up with an operationalization for this question that could yield no false negatives or positives, my current guess is that if Metaculus still exists after such a transition, it will be obvious whether the transition was positive. Therefore, I leave the resolution up to moderator discretion. If no such transition occurs before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously. ",113,3 -"Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. +"Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Question: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023? This resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both: ---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). ---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). -",168,3 +",169,3 "After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/","Metaculus","[]","Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180), Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control. Nick Bostrom wrote in his book Superintelligence (2014), @@ -4763,7 +4763,7 @@ Would it be absurd now to suppose that the improvement of the human race should This question resolves on the first year during which the majority of deaths in the world, as reported by a reputable organization, are listed as originating from non-disease related causes, AND the proportion of (deaths in that year)/(population of the world at the beginning of the year) < 1%. The intention of this question is to determine the first year during which medicine has eliminated most disease. Therefore, the second condition is there to prevent global catastrophic risks from spurring a false resolution. One such organization that reports death statistics is the World Health Organization. You can see their report for deaths in 2019 [here](https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311696/WHO-DAD-2019.1-eng.pdf). ",35,3 -"Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) +"Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) The [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll) This question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States? For the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals: @@ -4781,7 +4781,7 @@ Tiffany Trump Melania Trump --- Barron Trump -",519,3 +",529,3 "What will be the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century as measured by its impact on GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4159/climate-change-damage-in-the-21st-century/","Metaculus","[]","From [a review](https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315) of the economic impacts of climate change, The impacts of climate change are many and diverse. Determining whether these impacts are beneficial or detrimental, small or large, depends on the sector, location, and time being considered. Unfortunately, a reading of the literature on the impacts of climate change (Field and Canziani 2014) is likely to leave a lay reader confused. It is very difficult to make sense of the many and different effects: crops hit by worsening drought, crops growing faster because of carbon dioxide fertilization, heat stress increasing, cold stress decreasing, sea levels rising, increasing energy demand for cooling, decreasing energy demand for heating, infectious disease spreading, species going extinct. Thus we need aggregate indicators to assess whether climate change is, on balance, a good thing or a bad thing and whether the climate problem is small or large relative to the many other problems that society faces. A common aggregate measure economists have given is the impact of climate change on GDP by the end of the century. From a [2015 survey of climate economists](https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/expertconsensusreport.pdf), @@ -4789,7 +4789,7 @@ On average, these experts predicted losses of between 5% and 10% of GDP [by 2090 Here I will define damage incurred by climate change as the time-integral of the difference in non-discounted value of world GDP on a path with warming-inducing emissions as a percentage of total GDP along the path without emissions. This question asks, what will be the total damage incurred by climate change during the 21st century, as given by the definition of damage above? The resolution will be determined by a credible estimate from economists in, or after the year 2101. Metaculus admins will determine, in consultation with the community, which estimate is most credible. In general, a robust meta-analysis which aggregates estimates from high-quality studies is the best source for resolution. Barring the availability of such a meta-analysis, a survey of experts is preferred. Barring the availability of either source, a high quality study will determine resolution. If none of these sources are available, this question resolves ambiguously. -",25,3 +",27,3 "When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/","Metaculus","[]","The highest rated chess player as of May 2020 is [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen), who currently possesses a FIDE rating of [2863](https://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=1503014). His peak rating (and the highest rating of all time) was 2882, achieved back in May 2014. An overview of top-ranked chess grandmasters sorted by their peak rating can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_players_by_peak_FIDE_rating) or [here](https://2700chess.com/records). When will a human chess player reach a peak FIDE rating of 2900 or more in classical chess? Resolution will be based off of the official monthly FIDE rating publications. The question resolves ambiguously if FIDE ceases to be the governing body of international chess competition and/or fails to publish the relevant data for 6 months in a row. @@ -4856,7 +4856,7 @@ Fahy et al. demonstrated a mean age reversal of 2.16 years after 1 year of treat Fahy is reportedly spearheading a new trial, called TRIIM-X (see [this part of his recent TEDx talk](https://youtu.be/PFg-OMHvI2E?t=968)). He hopes to investigate the effects of a modified version of the same treatment with the benefits of a larger trial and a more diverse set of participants. This question asks, after 12 months of treatment, what will be the mean expected lifespan gain after taking the directed treatment in the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by GrimAge? If for whatever reason, the relevant GrimAge results from TRIIM-X are not released by January 1st 2027, this question resolves ambiguously. If the results are informally published (as indicated by some reliable online document of any kind) at some point prior to January 1st 2027, the question resolves retroactively on the date the document was published. -",30,3 +",33,3 "When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/","Metaculus","[]","Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. [A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. When will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: @@ -4895,7 +4895,7 @@ Define a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any A vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. More narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators. The date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain. -",63,3 +",64,3 "How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/","Metaculus","[]","Given the public disagreement of expert opinion on AI timelines, seen for example [here](http://www.parlonsfutur.com/blog/the-fascinating-facebook-debate-between-yann-lecun-stuart-russel-and-yoshua), there is a need to establish a credible track-record of accurate forecasting in the lead-up to the development of AGI. Oren Etzioni, head of the Allen AI institute, recently published an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/25/906083/artificial-intelligence-destroy-civilization-canaries-robot-overlords-take-over-world-ai/) on identifying 'canaries' which will presage the imminent development of AGI. He proposes that limited versions of the Turing Test could present a natural canary. This question's resolution will be determined by the number of years between the positive resolution of two other metaculus questions: the silver [Turing Test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/) prediction and [AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) prediction. @@ -4951,7 +4951,7 @@ The three companies are: This question asks: Which of these three companies will be first in developing a lunar landing system that successfully lands a person on the moon? This question will resolve to precisely 1,2 or 3 when a lander build by the respective team successfully lands a living human on the moon. In the case that none of the 3 successfully lands a living human on the moon before January 1, 2030, the question will resolve to a value of 0. If two of the teams merge or NASA selects a different company to develop a lunar lander, the question will resolve ambiguously. -",60,3 +",61,3 "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/). If the Long Now Foundation declares Brant von Goble the winner then this question resolves positively. If they declare John C Leven the winner, this question resolves negatively. ",25,3 @@ -4994,7 +4994,7 @@ it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial p Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication. For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question This question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080. -",166,3 +",168,3 "Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Harvard University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) is the oldest university in the United States and has the largest [endowment](https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance/endowment), with [$40.9 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of June 30, 2019](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/#performance). The endowment's mission is [""to help ensure Harvard University has the financial resources to confidently maintain and expand its leadership in education and research for future generations.""](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/about/). The Harvard Management Company (HMC), which runs the endowment, intends the endowment to provide Harvard with a source of income for the next hundred years or longer. Will HMC achieve its goal? On an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have more assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019? @@ -5009,13 +5009,13 @@ The question resolves as negative if any of the following situations occur: When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan? The date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars. For the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a ""passenger car"", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars. -",32,3 +",33,3 "When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/","Metaculus","[]","The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies. [As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or ""National Debt"" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm) [You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/) This question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars? Resolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics. -",104,3 +",111,3 "What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/","Metaculus","[]","Traditionally, access to space has been extremely expensive. However, prices continue to fall with each passing decade as new technologies are developed and the sector becomes more commercialised. [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), for example, has demonstrated the potential of reusable rockets. Other advances in the future may include lighter materials, the use of inflatable modules, new fuel types, space planes, and more efficient engines. More speculatively, it may eventually be possible to deliver payloads to orbit with more exotic delivery methods such as space elevators or other non-rocket space launch systems. As of 2020, [although the cost to launch a payload to LEO has dropped considerably in recent decades, spaceflight remains a fairly costly endeavour](https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/6.htm). For example, a flight to LEO on a Falcon 9 rocket with a reused first stage costs [about $50 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) for a 15,600kg maximum reusable payload; meaning the price per kilo to LEO is about $3,205. @@ -5119,14 +5119,14 @@ The National Security Council declined to comment. This question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon? This question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place. There is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution. -",117,3 +",118,3 "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/","Metaculus","[]","Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr. The $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress). If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour? The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports. If Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous. If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. -",271,3 +",280,3 "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/","Metaculus","[]","Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. About [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. Dates of note @@ -5147,7 +5147,7 @@ No coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two wee --- Coal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period In case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously. -",67,3 +",68,3 "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/","Metaculus","[]","On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States. Scott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog, This is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria. @@ -5196,7 +5196,7 @@ This question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia) The S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends? This question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030. -",119,3 +",121,3 "Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context ======= @@ -5207,7 +5207,7 @@ Question and Resolution ======================= Will there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030? -",36,3 +",39,3 "Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)): George Church is an American geneticist, molecular engineer, and chemist. He is the Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, Professor of Health Sciences and Technology at Harvard and MIT, and a founding member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering. Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035? @@ -5295,11 +5295,11 @@ Starship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefo To be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards. (Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.) (Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.) -",137,3 +",154,3 "When will we have a new Pope?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/","Metaculus","[]","When the Pope dies [(or resigns)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI), the Cardinals of the Cathlic Church convene a [Papal Conclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave) to elect the Pope's successor. This mysterious procedure culminates in the [fumata](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave#The_fumata_(smoke)), traditionally the burning of the ballots. Black smoke indicates that the ballot was inconclusive, while white smoke indicates that [a new Pope has been elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habemus_papam). This question resolves as the first date and time (after question launch, before 2036-12-17) at which white smoke is emitted from the building in which a Papal Conclave is meeting. If the Catholic Church or Papacy dissolves during or in the wake of Pope Francis' papacy, question resolves ambiguous. However, if both institutions are remain effectively intact, this question closes on 2036-12-17 (Pope Francis' 100th birthday). Should Pope Francis still be alive and Pope at that time, this question resolves as >2036-12-17. -",90,3 +",91,3 "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are ""very strong""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/","Metaculus","[]","For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time. In 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be ""very strong"" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. If Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are ""very strong""? @@ -5320,7 +5320,7 @@ ETA (2020-06-19) Planting trees does count as a carbon dioxide removal method fo "What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/","Metaculus","[]","For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the S&P 500 index achieve? ""Annual return"" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is: Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Inflation rates to be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index. -",202,3 +",205,3 "Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years. [Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides. This question asks: Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations? @@ -5385,7 +5385,7 @@ The user who currently has the most followers, Ninja, stopped using the platform This question asks: When will a Twitch user have more followers than Ninja? Question resolves as the first time at which the most-followed account on Twitch is someone other than Ninja. If Ninja’s account is deleted from Twitch, the question will resolve as the time of deletion. This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer. -",150,3 +",151,3 "Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A major goal of eperimental particle physics and cosmology is to identify the [dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) pervading the universe. Foremost candidates for this matter are [WIMPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weakly_interacting_massive_particles) and [axions](https://www.quantamagazine.org/why-dark-matter-might-be-axions-20191127/). An ongoing test for WIMP-nucleon scattering is [XENON1T](http://www.xenon1t.org/) in Italy, with a much higher sensitivity than [preceding experiments](http://www.nature.com/news/largest-ever-dark-matter-experiment-poised-to-test-popular-theory-1.18772); this dark matter detector is essentially a 3500 kilogram target of liquid Xenon sandwiched between two arrays of photomultiplier tubes. The arrays detect signals from scintillation and electron drift generated from particles scattering off Xenon nuclei, at which point known [backgrounds](http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.07501) will be subtracted out to get the WIMP signal. Recently, the XENON1T experiment disclosed that it has some interesting events in hand; see [preprint](https://www.science.purdue.edu/xenon1t/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/xenon1tlowersearches.pdf) and [popular article in Quanta](https://www.quantamagazine.org/dark-matter-experiment-finds-unexplained-signal-20200617/). These happened not in its search for WIMP dark matter, but in looking for axions. Per the Quanta article, As the WIMP search kept coming up empty, XENON scientists realized several years ago that they could use their experiment to search for other kinds of unknown particles that might pass through the detector: particles that bang into an electron rather than a xenon nucleus. @@ -5556,12 +5556,12 @@ To pin down a specific day, we will linearly interpolate between the end of the "When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/","Metaculus","[]","According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869. When will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000? This question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been <1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date. -",236,3 +",240,3 "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases. Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases? The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source. -",382,3 +",388,3 "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) ""Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders."". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken. Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025? This question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). @@ -5570,13 +5570,13 @@ Furthermore, one of the two conditions must be true: ---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity ---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. Hence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted. -",140,3 -"Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware. +",141,3 +"Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware. [PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations. [Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure. As of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study. This question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030. -",26,3 +",29,3 "Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In June 2020, [a new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic was identified in China by scientists.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53218704) According to the BBC: It emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say. @@ -5597,13 +5597,13 @@ This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil Resolution Criteria This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE. -",1290,3 +",1301,3 "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.050000000000000044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election. Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia). In late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021? This question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise. -",145,3 +",146,3 "Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/will-more-than-two-nuclear-weapons-in-total-have-been-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war. Currently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/). This question asks: @@ -5666,13 +5666,13 @@ Resolution Criteria: This question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section. If the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada. Admission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary. -",30,3 +",33,3 "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/","Metaculus","[]","In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020. Tesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [""Tesla stock price is too high imo.""](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184) As of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business) This question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars? This question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called ""Tesla"" (rather than ""Grohmann Automation"" or ""Tesla Energy"", say), should inherit the Tesla identity. -",67,3 +",70,3 "When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/","Metaculus","[]","[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012. Under Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections. Russia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses. @@ -5691,7 +5691,7 @@ The U.S. Geological Survey. The local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake. 4-- A prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins. -",105,3 +",106,3 "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/","Metaculus","[]","Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. Judging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. One thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. @@ -5742,7 +5742,7 @@ Resolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Populati On March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/). This question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date): import pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(""https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv"") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) -",289,3 +",293,3 "When will the VIX index fall below 20?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/","Metaculus","[]","The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market. VIX represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, equivalent to a 30 day movement of (20% ÷ √12 =) ±5.77%. Between 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX). @@ -5756,13 +5756,13 @@ Between 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having ope The question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count. Companion question: ---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) -",101,3 -"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks: +",102,3 +"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks: ""Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?"" The question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened. The question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened. The question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023. -",155,3 +",164,3 "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/","Metaculus","[]","Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time. In 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans. @@ -5773,7 +5773,7 @@ When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space? ---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. ---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. ---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. -",90,3 +",93,3 "When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/","Metaculus","[]","After decades of being relegated to niche industries and a [failed first wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#1970%E2%80%931990) in the 1990s, virtual reality has once again emerged in the last decade as a promising consumer product. With the launch of the Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, and PSVR in 2016, and continued investment by companies such as Facebook, Sony and Valve, virtual reality headsets are now experiencing a second wave of popularity. However, at this time VR headsets remain a relatively niche product; [total PSVR sales](https://uploadvr.com/psvr-sales-analysis/) are estimated at about 5 million or 5% of PS4 sales, Oculus Quest sales were estimated at [less than 1 million](https://qz.com/1739575/strong-oculus-quest-sales-boost-facebooks-non-advertising-revenue/) late last year, etc. When will 6DoF, controller-enabled, virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year? ---For the purposes of this question, a virtual reality headset has the following characteristics: @@ -5956,7 +5956,7 @@ Stripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 pe This question asks: On 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach? This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative. -",32,3 +",34,3 "Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [an article](https://techxplore.com/news/2020-07-photon-based-enable-complex-machine.html) reporting on new developments in photonic tensor cores, A paper in the journal Applied Physics Reviews, by AIP Publishing, proposes a new approach to perform computations required by a neural network, using light instead of electricity. In this approach, a photonic tensor core performs multiplications of matrices in parallel, improving speed and efficiency of current deep learning paradigms. In machine learning, neural networks are trained to learn to perform unsupervised decision and classification on unseen data. Once a neural network is trained on data, it can produce an inference to recognize and classify objects and patterns and find a signature within the data. @@ -6075,7 +6075,7 @@ When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth fo ---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. ---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same ""B10XX"" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that ""this stage previously flew the ABC mission"", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. ---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. -",148,3 +",153,3 "How many of the ""priority paths"" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","[80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/). Much of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as ""one of [the] highest-impact options"" for those who have ""the potential to excel"" in those paths. In 2020, the priority paths are: @@ -6104,7 +6104,7 @@ If 80,000hours no longer lists ""priority paths"", for any reason, this question One proxy for how prominent Trump is in the public eye is Google Trends search interest. Search interest in Donald Trump started rising in June 2015 when Trump [announced his candidacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign), spiked in November 2016 due to [the election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and has been at about a quarter of that level during his presidency. What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024, as a percentage of in November 2016? Resolution is by the Google Trends interest over time figure for the topic [Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90) for September 2024, as displayed on the google trends site on October 1st 2024, as a percentage of the value in November 2016. If search interest is marked as <1 for that month, resolve at 0. -",22,3 +",25,3 "Who will win the 'worm wars'?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained). In GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions. Givewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts: @@ -6151,7 +6151,7 @@ My own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflic On the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we ""may"" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be ""too surprised"" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is ""a possibility we can't rule out"". Thus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026? This question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in ""kinetic conflict"", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a ""cold war""). -",144,3 +",145,3 "Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are: ---[The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) ---[Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) @@ -6187,7 +6187,7 @@ SpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 20 This question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars? In the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. If SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously. -",86,3 +",87,3 "When will the Woke index in US elite media top?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/","Metaculus","[]","[Zach Goldberg](https://twitter.com/ZachG932) has done research [showing the steep rise in Woke terms used in US media](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/media-great-racial-awakening). These are terms like racism, privilege, whiteness and so on. These have shown a marked increase since about 2011, called [the great awokening](https://quillette.com/2020/06/22/toward-a-new-cultural-nationalism/). There doesn't not yet seem to be any end to this rise, but presumably it will end at some point. Resolved: When will the use of Woke terms in US elite media top? ---These are defined as part of Zach Goldberg's Woke index which includes [the following words](https://imgur.com/KtoqNv9). @@ -6208,7 +6208,7 @@ After that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-for Will the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments? This question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively. ",41,3 -"Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552): +"Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552): The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization. US Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks): Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in ""organized terror attacks"" designed to tear down government institutions. @@ -6224,7 +6224,7 @@ Will Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 202 ---It must happen before 2022. ---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). ---An ""official list is"" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. -",300,3 +",343,3 "[Metaculus] When will the feature to share private questions go live?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4947/metaculus-when-will-the-feature-to-share-private-questions-go-live/","Metaculus","[]","[In the discussion thread posted 27th May 2018](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/935/discussion-topic-what-features-should-metaculus-add/), a feature is noted as being in the works ""Invite people to predict on your private questions, on a per-question basis."" Similarly, [a comment from 25th June 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/935/discussion-topic-what-features-should-metaculus-add/#comment-34260) saying this feature is highly desirable has +5. Thus, it would appear that the feature is highly sought and already noted as being in development for more than 2 years. So the question is: When will the feature to share a private question go live? --- @@ -6281,7 +6281,7 @@ The implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in ord This question resolves >2050 if no approval is given before 2050. The question resolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure. Changelog: 2020-08-17 : removed § triggering positive resolution upon Investigational Device Exemption or Humanitarian Device Exemption. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/#comment-37813). -",114,3 +",116,3 "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita). The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179. This question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars? @@ -6457,8 +6457,8 @@ The run must be on a flat ground. --- Gravitational acceleration and air resistance must be similar to those we currently normally found on Earth. The source used for resolution will be Guinness World Records, or some other appropriately reputable source as determined by Metaculus admins in communication with the community. -",33,3 -"Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. +",35,3 +"Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. [This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up. And [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. Will this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask: @@ -6468,8 +6468,8 @@ Resolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports This would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5). --- Almost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like ""viruses"". -",80,3 -"If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months? +",83,3 +"If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months? This question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology: ---Let t be the date when the AGI is publicly known, as determined by the above Metaculus question. Let C be the company that developed the AGI. @@ -6478,7 +6478,7 @@ If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolv ---Calculate the ratio of C's total return over this period to the total return of FTSE. If the ratio is 1.5 or greater, then this question resolves affirmatively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If the first AGI is not developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves ambiguously. [1] In the event that the market is closed on the start/end date, instead use the latest prior date on which the market is open. In the event that the date does not exist, use the latest prior date that exists. For example, if the AGI is developed on December 31, ""one month prior"" is considered to be November 30. If the market is closed on November 30, then use November 29 instead. -",26,3 +",31,3 "What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","One of the most widely used metrics for country well-being comparison is the GDP per capita metric, which [intends to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) ""the market value of all the final goods and services produced"". [Wikipedia provides](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita) a convenient overview of rankings according to different sources. One notable thing is that countries tend to keep their relative positions over time, but not entirely so. Some countries that used to be rich are no longer (e.g., [Argentina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina)), and others that were very poor are now rich or quickly becoming rich (e.g. [Asian tigers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Asian_Tigers), and now China). Denmark is currently ranked 12 on the World Bank's 2019 estimates, excluding dependent territories. The question is: What will Denmark's ranking be in 2030? @@ -6512,14 +6512,14 @@ In order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet sever ---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. ---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. ---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. -",213,3 -"Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes: +",224,3 +"Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes: Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro: ""All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution."" The question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030? ---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. ---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. -",57,3 +",59,3 "What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/","Metaculus","[]","Context ------- @@ -6551,7 +6551,7 @@ This question will resolve positively if: This question will resolve ambiguously if: ---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. ---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. -",552,3 +",561,3 "When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5050/when-will-the-first-macs-with-apple-silicon-ship/","Metaculus","[]","On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon) the transition will start with first Macs being released by the end of 2020. What will be the date when Apple ships Macs based on Apple silicon? @@ -6593,12 +6593,12 @@ This question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and res 'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time. 'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default. If the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators. -",28,3 +",30,3 "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. Will Hanson win the bet? Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025. -",178,3 +",179,3 "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. This is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) Here we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders. @@ -6650,7 +6650,7 @@ Will Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? ---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. ---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. ETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively -",500,3 +",502,3 "What will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of any prior year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/when-will-economic-growth-accelerate/","Metaculus","[]","Economic historians have often emphasized the role [economic growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth) plays as perhaps the most important phenomena of human history. In a quite real sense, economic growth is what distinguishes 21st century humanity from our distant ancestors who had no technology or civilization. By estimating historical economic growth, economists have [identified](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/longgrow.html) two crucial events in the history of humanity which greatly accelerated the rate of growth: the agricultural revolution roughly 10,000 years ago, and the industrial revolution roughly 200 years ago. Many theorists now anticipate that there will be a another crucial event in which economic growth rates greatly accelerate, roughly timed with the development of advanced artificial intelligence. In line with these predictions, economic growth is the [primary specific benchmark](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgNYA6pj2hPSDQiTE/distinguishing-definitions-of-takeoff) people have used to characterize potential future AI takeoff. @@ -6682,7 +6682,7 @@ As a default, resolution will be according to official member statements such as Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)? The question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason. The question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia. -",43,3 +",44,3 "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [""When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3. Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning? This question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page. @@ -6711,7 +6711,7 @@ Even 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become p Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025? The acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources. If Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. -",370,3 +",375,3 "When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/","Metaculus","[]","Bitcoin (BTC) is one of 100s of cryptocurrencies. While [not exactly the first 'digital gold'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Pre-history), it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advantage in the competition in terms of market share (of all money invested in cryptocurrency). In the summer of 2017, Bitcoin seemed poised to lose its position as coin number 1 to Ethereum (ETH), however, it eventually gained back its dominance. Also in early 2018, BTC lost dominance and was down to about 33% of the market, but then again bounced back. It currently has a market share of 57% according to [coinmarketcap.com's estimate](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage). When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency? ---Data from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage). @@ -6729,7 +6729,7 @@ There may be a fee to access drone delivery (similar to Amazon Fresh), a waiting There are no requirements for delivery speed. The drone must be used for the final step of a delivery (the ""last mile""), and need only be used for that step. For example, a delivery driver could drive a van to a neighborhood and deploy drones to deliver boxes to houses on the block. On the other hand, an autonomous airliner delivering packages to warehouses would not qualify. If there is insufficient information on any of these criteria (e.g. it is unclear how much of a city's area is covered), the question remains open, and resolves when all of the criteria are clearly satisfied. The question could resolve ambiguous if there is conflicting information, e.g. if one report claims that 15% of the city's area is covered, and another claims 25%. -",59,3 +",61,3 "When will the first human head transplant occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/","Metaculus","[]","Transplantation of tissue — including organs — from one human (or nonhuman) to another is an amazing advance in medicine that has now saved many lives. Complex organs including the heart and liver are now routinely transplanted, and in many cases even quite complex severed nerves can be reattached. Much more audacious is the possibility of transplanting a human head. (Or should it be considered a full-body transplant?) The difficulties are obviously daunting: not just the spine, but major arteries, throat, etc., must all be reattached while keeping the brain alive. Recently, the media has been abuzz with news that Sergio Canavero and his colleague Xiaoping Ren of China plan to transplant a human head from a living person onto a donor cadaver. The two surgeons — who portray themselves as pioneers defying a stodgy medical establishment but are considered reckless renegades by many peers — say the head donor will be someone with a degenerative disease, whose body is wasting away while his or her mind remains active. @@ -6743,7 +6743,7 @@ For some additional context, here is the IEA [Historical EV Market Share and Out This question asks: Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030? If one of the top 10 current automakers (by vehicle sales), including Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler/Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Honda, SAIC, BMW, and Nissan, declares bankruptcy, the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If the automaker declares bankruptcy the question will resolve positively even if they are bought out by another company or given a loan by the government -",90,3 +",91,3 "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party. Polls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold). Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election? @@ -6766,7 +6766,7 @@ Related questions: [When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/) --- [How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/) -",101,3 +",106,3 "Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5219/rushton-paper-retracted-before-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There have been many retractions of scientific papers concerning controversial topics in recent times. For instance, earlier this year, Cory Clark et al [retracted](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797619897915) a much discussed paper (Declines in Religiosity Predict Increases in Violent Crime—but Not Among Countries With Relatively High Average IQ). Similarly, Hans Eysenck has in recent years been facing [numerous retraction requests](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/misconduct-allegations-push-psychology-hero-his-pedestal) concerning his work with [Ronald Grossarth-Maticek](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Grossarth-Maticek) on personality and health. Finally, very recently, a paper by Phil Rushton was [retracted](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886912000840), Do pigmentation and the melanocortin system modulate aggression and sexuality in humans as they do in other animals?: This article (Rushton, J. P., & Templer, D. I. (2012). Do pigmentation and the melanocortin system modulate aggression and sexuality in humans as they do in other animals? Personality and Individual Differences, 53(1), 4–8. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2012.02.015](http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2012.02.015)) has been retracted at the request of the Editor-in-Chief and the majority of Senior Associate Editors of Personality and Individual Differences and in consultation with the Executive Officers and Board of Directors of the International Society for the Study of Individual Differences (ISSID). The reasons given for the retraction were as follows: @@ -6784,7 +6784,7 @@ Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022? The last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break. When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released? The question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released. -",61,3 +",62,3 "Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index), The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high. Historical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns). @@ -6827,7 +6827,7 @@ Similar questions: ---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) ---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) ---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) -",217,3 +",218,3 "Will the cover of the 2022 IKEA Catalogue feature a human?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5260/humans-on-the-2022-ikea-catalogue-cover/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The IKEA Museum website provides [a complete archive of IKEA Catalogues](https://ikeamuseum.com/sv/ikea-kataloger/), currently covering yearl from 1950 to 2021. The first cover to feature a human figure comes in 1970, with some portion of a human then visible on the cover for the following years: 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1980, 1981, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2020. That is, in 71 years, 22 of IKEA's yearly catalogues have featured a human on the cover. But the catalogue history has seen a number of 'dry spells'. Changing expectations and fashions in corporate advertising are visible across this period, and IKEA's dominance in the 'affordable' homeware/furniture market shows no immediate signs of declining. The annual catalogue is also seen as a particularly important feature of the company's marketing. It [reportedly](https://web.archive.org/web/20040622103715/http://www.ikea.com/ms/en_GB/about_ikea/press_room/student_info.html) consumed 70% of the company's annual marketing budget in 2004. [According to the Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10000872396390444508504577595414031195148), approximately 208 million copies were printed worldwide in 2013. @@ -6902,7 +6902,7 @@ Related questions: ---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) ---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) ---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) -",85,3 +",91,3 "When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/","Metaculus","[]","The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic). But is it possible that one day, normal Americans will find it very difficult to quickly and legally leave the US for any other country? While seemingly farfetched, this is the reality that residents of many Soviet-bloc countries had faced historically, and one that still afflicts residents of countries like North Korea today. Define an emigration crisis as: @@ -6995,14 +6995,14 @@ Similar questions: ---The client must pay for the trip. ---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. ---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. -",81,3 +",82,3 "If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the ""red button"" be pressed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5311/lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Petrov Day](http://petrovday.com/) is the yearly anniversary of the [1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident) on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union. One proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to [create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJxwFMSL5TPN2usC6/modes-of-petrov-day), with a big red button with much lower stakes: And you can also play on hard mode: ""During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak."" Lesswrong has hosted an event along these lines [in 2019](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvzfFcbmKgEsDBRHh/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2019) and [in 2020](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020). In 2019, 125 users were given ""launch codes"" that, if input into a red button on the front page, would take down the site for the day. In 2020, the same was done with 270 users. The site [was not took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krgNxiooRfnP9L4ZD/follow-up-to-petrov-day-2019) in 2019, and [was took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020?commentId=CviMXu8BciCqcSMKJ#Relating_to_the_End_of_Humanity) in 2020. If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the ""red button"" be pressed? If the site [lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/) hosts a 2021 Petrov day event, and a group of Lesswrong users are given the choice to take a unilateral action that ends the 2021 Petrov day event (such as entering launch codes that take down the Lesswrong site, as in 2019 and 2020), then this will resolve positively if one of them takes that action and negatively if none of them do. Otherwise, this resolves ambigiously. -",69,3 +",70,3 "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date. In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine. [Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit. @@ -7011,7 +7011,7 @@ The planet, however, remains to be found. If it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection. Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030? For this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years. -",89,3 +",90,3 "Will ""best practice"" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). This question asks: @@ -7020,8 +7020,8 @@ This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic The BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution. ""1st line"", and ""Plus"" count as a recommendation. ""Consider"" does not. The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. -",167,3 -"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). +",168,3 +"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). This question asks: Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? @@ -7032,7 +7032,7 @@ And: The NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say: There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this. The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. -",134,3 +",136,3 "Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). This question asks: @@ -7090,7 +7090,7 @@ The question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as re Wars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Terrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state. Armed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War. -",56,3 +",58,3 "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris): Kamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. If Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination. @@ -7115,7 +7115,7 @@ Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? ---Positive resolution does not require McAfee to actually finish his three year sentence. ---Serving a combined total exceeding 3 years in pre-trail detention and post-trail detention is sufficient for positive resolution. ---If this question does not resolve positively before 2025-01-01, this question resolves negatively. -",47,3 +",50,3 "When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/","Metaculus","[]","The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/). Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe). Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens. The Government of India requires a permit to visit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has outlawed all outsider visits to the North Sentinel Island, have designated a 3 mile exclusion zone around the island, and maintain an armed patrol of this exclusion zone in an attempt to prevent outside contact. Knowledge of Sentinelese culture is [extremely limited](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646218). They are designated a '[Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061)', and estimates of the island's population vary widely. The [2001 census recorded 39 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20141211011020/http://censusindia.gov.in/Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/06-Enumeration_of_Primitive_Tribes_in_A%26N_Islands.pdf#page=3) (21 men, 18 women), the [2011 census recorded only 15 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20150801173328/http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/3500_PART_B_DCHB_ANDAMAN%20%26%20NICOBAR%20ISLANDS.pdf) (12 men, 3 women), but both were conducted from a distance. A [2016 estimate](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061) suggested between 100 and 150. When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people? @@ -7126,7 +7126,7 @@ This question resolves when any one of the following events occurs: 4--Two or more news sources report that there are no longer any people living on North Sentinel Island; or 5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists. The question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video). -",19,3 +",21,3 "Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence. An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example. Paul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.) @@ -7135,14 +7135,14 @@ Resolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or oth This question will resolve positively if world output doubles in a period of 4 years or less before 2050. It resolves negatively otherwise, i.e. if the following related question resolves ambiguously: ---[Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/) ",57,3 -"If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related question on Metaculus: +"If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related question on Metaculus: ---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) Elon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion. Will Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030? This claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO If there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously. Comparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. -",29,3 +",34,3 "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the ""Conservatives"" or ""Tories"". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? This question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party. @@ -7155,8 +7155,8 @@ In case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this quest 2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and 3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. If, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. -",39,3 -"Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010. +",40,3 +"Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010. Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? This question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. @@ -7168,7 +7168,7 @@ In case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question al 2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and 3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. If, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. -",43,3 +",45,3 "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures. Despite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media) In October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea. @@ -7205,7 +7205,7 @@ The question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to For the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50. The tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count. If the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. -",71,3 +",75,3 "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies. European Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of ""enriched"" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free. In July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA website specifically [mentions](http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/topics/topic/animal-welfare?utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Defsa%26utm_campaign%3Danimalwelfare2%26utm_content%3Dcorporate) the ""[End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/)"" [European Citizens’ Initiative](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/home_en) signed by over 1 million European Union citizens calling for a ban on using confined housing in livestock farming, which includes the caging of laying hens, in the whole EU. In September 2020, the Commission put out a call for 24 month tenders for the pilot project ""[Best Practices for Alternative Egg Production](https://etendering.ted.europa.eu/cft/cft-display.html?cftId=7175)"". In August 2020, in response to parliamentary questions, EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides [reiterated](https://www.topagrar.com/management-und-politik/news/tierwohl-ist-wesentlicher-bestandteil-der-farm-to-fork-strategie-12332974.html?utm_source%3Dtopagrar) that the EU Commission would present a working paper on the implementation of animal welfare in the European Union in early 2022 and will present appropriate legislative proposals by the end of 2023. @@ -7234,7 +7234,7 @@ Previous question: [Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD) ---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. ---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. -",231,3 +",236,3 "How much will interest in machine translation grow in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5454/growth-in-interest-for-machine-translation/","Metaculus","[]","Machine translation [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine_translation), is a sub-field of computational linguistics that investigates the use of software to translate text or speech from one language to another. On a basic level, MT performs mechanical substitution of words in one language for words in another, but that alone rarely produces a good translation because recognition of whole phrases and their closest counterparts in the target language is needed. Not all words in one language have equivalent words in another language, and many words have more than one meaning. @@ -7252,7 +7252,7 @@ When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise? For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court. This question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice. If the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. -",159,3 +",161,3 "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/","Metaculus","[]","A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp), a decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak. When will be the next S&P 500 correction? @@ -7262,7 +7262,7 @@ The S&P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is les [This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate. Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036? A credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs. -",34,3 +",35,3 "When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/","Metaculus","[]","related questions: ---[When will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/) ---[What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/) @@ -7281,7 +7281,7 @@ With regard to pretraining, the question allows: Besides that, the AI system must not make use any aspects of the game that are not available to a human player, especially direct game memory access is not allowed even for computing rewards. Exploiting deterministic nature of the game and superhuman reflexes is allowed as long as the AI system fits within the time limit. In general an AI system that was in any way specifically engineered to play the Montezuma's Revenge must not count. ",28,3 -"Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. +"Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election. Erin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012. On policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a ""CANZUK"" agreement, getting ""tough on China"", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal. @@ -7290,7 +7290,7 @@ This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O' In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open. Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. Further, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. -",52,3 +",55,3 "Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030. SpaceX has been working on its own ""Mars"" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026. Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars? @@ -7303,12 +7303,12 @@ If neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question w Note that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it. Because the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative. Similarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth. It is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030. -",46,3 +",47,3 "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/","Metaculus","[]","[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities. [https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time. How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? This question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022. -",53,3 +",55,3 "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/","Metaculus","[]","[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing). Amongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four: 1-- @@ -7370,7 +7370,7 @@ This question will resolve – on the basis of credible reporting – to Decembe If it does not resolve positive before the ending date of 3000AD, it will resolve to the upper-bound. If the GDP falls into disuse, and Metaculus Admins find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous. Because of the dates involved in this question, it is unlikely any current Metaculus users will remain to collect points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith. -",77,3 +",78,3 "Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb). However, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761). There is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/). @@ -7379,7 +7379,7 @@ This question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after Sep The question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or the authors of the original study agree that there is no significant abundance of phosphine in the Venus atmosphere. Related question: [Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/) -",134,3 +",135,3 "When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/","Metaculus","[]","With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence? This question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. @@ -7387,7 +7387,7 @@ Positive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygen Positive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities. Positive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases. In case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as "">2090-10-25"". -",54,3 +",57,3 "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919), I don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis. You would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court. @@ -7395,7 +7395,7 @@ Foreseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the The most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices). How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030? This question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports. -",111,3 +",112,3 "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/","Metaculus","[]","Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's handling of hotel quarantine.](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told) In late October 2020, the state has reported its first days with no new cases since early June. @@ -7415,7 +7415,7 @@ As Hawkins from [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-ele “Research suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination.” As one of the largest transportation companies and contributors to carbon emissions, taking these steps will help lower pollution and decrease the rate of global warming. When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet? Resolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Uber’s own data and announcements will suffice. -",36,3 +",42,3 "Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. Governor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as: “including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).” @@ -7427,13 +7427,13 @@ This is a key issue in the widespread battle between economic security and stabi Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035? Resolution criteria for this question will be found through reliable media sources in California or nationally, or through the Office of the Governor in California. The [official document](https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf) posted by the Governor’s Office outlines only the sales of new ZEV light duty passenger vehicles by 2035, and does not include the sale of used, non-ZEV passenger cars and trucks after 2035. If only certain counties are 100% in ZEV sales, then this question will resolve negatively as the executive order clearly states the goal of 100% ZEV sales as a state-wide plan. If the definition of ZEV changes before 2035, or the executive order no longer is in place by 2035, then this question will resolve negatively. If all new sales by dealerships for light duty vehicles throughout the state are ZEV as defined by the ZEV program from 2012, then this question will resolve positively. -",42,3 +",43,3 "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference. We live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states ""judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour""; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional. Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030? The question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030. An impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. -",69,3 +",70,3 "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports. At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports). The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: @@ -7454,7 +7454,7 @@ The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each p 1--Number of Gold Medals 2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals 3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals -",59,3 +",61,3 "What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/","Metaculus","[]","Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.” In 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges. What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge? @@ -7471,7 +7471,7 @@ Carbon Neutrality Definition: This question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal. If a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met. If a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. -",19,3 +",22,3 "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of ""Dow Jones Index of Happiness"". According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00. Historical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing). @@ -7479,18 +7479,18 @@ Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020. Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the ""English-speaking world"". ",81,3 -"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead? +"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead? Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021. An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) -",940,3 +",985,3 "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/","Metaculus","[]","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. Currently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022? This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022. In case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. -",62,3 +",63,3 "When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -7533,7 +7533,7 @@ Changing the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021? Resolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2022. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). Data: Numbers from 2015-2019: 2015: 0.11k, 2016: 0.83k, 2017: 0.64k, 2018: 0.91k, and 2019:1.99k -",39,3 +",43,3 "When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/","Metaculus","[]","California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations. These stations are essential infrastructure required for the widespread use of electric vehicles, and remain a critical factor in EV adoption. In a 2020 survey by Castrol, they found that [64% of consumers](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mainstream-ev-adoption-5-speedbumps-to-overcome/) on average (from countries in the Asian, European, and North American regions) would buy an electric vehicle if charging infrastructure existed to support their driving habits. There are currently [89,970 outlets](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) on public charging stations of every level across the United States, with California representing almost one third of that. Several other states such as Texas, Florida, Oregon, and New York are followers of California’s trend, however, the number of public outlets in the second-greatest state is only [5,151](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) in New York, less than one fifth of the number in California. @@ -7542,7 +7542,7 @@ If there is a greater push by both private corporations and public state and loc When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California? Resolution criteria for this question will be provided through the U.S Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/). The number of charging outlets and stations across America can be found through a [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) that is consistently updated. Numbers for this question were drawn on the date: 10/31/20. The number of charging outlets per state can be found through this [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) that is consistently updated. Other information surrounding adoption can be found through the AFDC in maps like [this](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) for new EV registration, which is on a two year updating time lag, and [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) to look at the number of current government sponsored laws and incentives for EVs by state. If these criteria are no longer available or current by the time this question resolves, then it will resolve ambiguously. To resolve positively, the number of public outlets of all levels in another state must reach the 50% level for the then current number of public outlets maintained in California at that time. -",23,3 +",25,3 "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy) “which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.” This mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. @@ -7568,7 +7568,7 @@ Using the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, "How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5576/current-species-of-pangolin-remaining-in-2050/","Metaculus","[]","[Pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin) are an order of mammals found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. There are eight currently extant species of pangolin. One the [IUCN red list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUCN_Red_List), three of these ([Phillipine pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_pangolin), [Chinese pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_pangolin) and [Sunda pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_pangolin)) are listed as critically endangered, three ([Tree pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_pangolin), [Indian pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_pangolin) and [Giant pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_pangolin)) are listed as endangered and two ([Long-tailed pangolins](Long-tailed pangolin) and [Ground pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_pangolin)) are listed as vulnerable. The endangerment of pangolins is caused by a combination of [poaching](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin_trade) and deforestation. How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050? This will resolve at the number of currently known species of pangolin that are not classified as ""extinct"" or ""critically endangered (possibly extinct)"" by the latest version of the [IUCN Red List](https://www.iucnredlist.org/) as of the end of 2050. If new species are discovered, they will not count towards the total number. -",21,3 +",24,3 "Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5577/germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Changing restrictions in the EU to achieve [climate neutrality](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en) and prevent the increase of global warming and carbon emissions by 2050 have increased the speed of EV adoption throughout Europe. As reported through [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/about-us/history.html), a german non-profit dedicated to transferring already existing knowledge from fundamental research in the fields of renewable energy and rotational energy conversion to market-ready, application-based technology, Germany has increased its new EV registrations by approximately [500% between 2015 and 2019](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590). The United States in contrast has barely tripled their registrations in the same time period. However, the US still holds a lead of three times the amount of registrations than Germany as of 2019. @@ -7584,31 +7584,31 @@ In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q How many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year? This question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla. Tesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.). -",104,3 +",105,3 "What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/","Metaculus","[]","From [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/library/case-for-neuropreservation/), Neuropreservation, quite simply, is low temperature preservation of the brain of a terminal patient. All efforts in neuropreservation are devoted to the singular purpose of preserving the brain, and only the brain, in the best possible condition allowed by present technology. The disposition of other tissue only matters inasmuch it impacts upon the condition of the brain. As of writing this question, Alcor [charges a minimum](https://www.alcor.org/docs/alcor-form-schedule-a-required-costs-and-cryopreservation-fund-minimums.pdf) of $80,000 for neuropreservation, often paid with life insurance. For people purchasing life insurance for cryonics, it's important to ensure that the funding is above the minimum amount required for preservation. However, the price has changed in the past. Therefore, it's critical that cryonics enthusiasts anticipate future price changes, so that they can afford the procedure when they need it. Mati Roy has written [a timeline of brain preservation](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) and has recorded both the [real](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics,_inflation_adjusted.png) and [nominal price of brain preservation over time](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics.png). What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030? This question resolves as the minimum nominal price of brain preservation provided by Alcor at the beginning of 2030 in US dollars, if Alcor still exists. Otherwise, this question resolves ambiguously. Resolution is determined by a source provided by Alcor. -",43,3 -"Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model), +",45,3 +"Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model), A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. The New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list), widely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic. Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030? A book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions. This question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise. -",143,3 +",147,3 "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/","Metaculus","[]","The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent. What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024? This question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024. ",33,3 -"Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections): +"Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections): The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans. Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections? This resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican. -",292,3 +",296,3 "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites. Youtube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as a hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists. @@ -7651,7 +7651,7 @@ Resolution ========== For the purposes of this question, a system must be created that can capture and make available for human use water from volatile sources in the Inner Solar System. Such a system may be a proof of concept, and not necessarily optimized, efficient, or cost-effective. -",16,3 +",21,3 "When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/","Metaculus","[]","The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 per hour. In terms of the USD's purchasing power, the minimum wage has been significantly higher in the past. In 1968, the minimum wage was $1.60 per hour, which in 2020 dollars would be aproximately $12.00. Joe Biden (presumed president-elect) has [pledged to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/). @@ -7659,7 +7659,7 @@ When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised? The resolution will occur on the date that the increase takes effect. Any increase over $7.25 USD (not inflation-adjusted) will be a valid resolution. If the minimum wage is reduced or abolished, the question resolves ambiguously. The question will be retroactively closed 3 days before a vote in the senate which passes legislation raising the minimum wage. A vote which does not pass will not close the question. The question will then be resolved on the date the legislation takes effect. -",106,3 +",109,3 "When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5648/1-gwp-off-earth/","Metaculus","[]","Since the launch of our [first satellite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1) into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed thousands of satellites around Earth and other celestial objects, and low Earth orbit has been inhabited continuously for just over [20 years](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/science/international-space-station-20-years) now. Elon Musk wants to colonize Mars and Jeff Bezos has talked about [moving industry to space](https://www.fastcompany.com/90347364/jeff-bezos-wants-to-save-earth-by-moving-industry-to-space), but as of yet, there is still essentially no economic activity that happens (almost) exclusively in outer space. How soon is this going to change? When will 1% of humanity's Gross World Product (GWP) be produced off-Earth? @@ -7673,7 +7673,7 @@ For the purposes of this question... The term ""Gross World Product"" will refer to humanity's total economic activity across all inhabited space, including any worlds or artificial habitats beyond Earth. --- The word ""humanity"" will also include genetically modified or cybernetic Earth-originating organisms, emulated humans (ems), and artificial intelligences (AIs). -",37,3 +",41,3 "What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/","Metaculus","[]","According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6. What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025? The number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker). If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguously. @@ -7689,12 +7689,12 @@ When will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime? There's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/). When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key? Resolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.) -",47,3 +",51,3 "When will it be possible to buy Quantum Computing via the Cloud?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5671/quantum-computing-via-the-cloud/","Metaculus","[]","Both Microsoft and Google are working on building Quantum Computers. Google achieved [Quantum Supremecy](https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/09/20/132923/google-researchers-have-reportedly-achieved-quantum-supremacy/) in 2019. Microsoft already has a website that previews [Azure Quantum](https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/services/quantum/). Given that both companies have cloud offerings and the first Quantum Computers are going to be really expensive it makes sense to rent out compute on those computers to willing custumers of their cloud offerings. When will it be possible to buy Quantum Computing via the Cloud? This question will resolve as the day on which quantum computing services can be brought via the cloud (as normal compute in cloud computing can be brought in 2020). On the date of resolution, prices for quantum compute must be openly advertised and any user must be able to sign up without first having to be on a waiting list. If these conditions are not met by the end of 2050, the question will resolve ambiguously. -",42,3 -"Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/). +",60,3 +"Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/). At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability. He was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay). Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75? @@ -7702,27 +7702,27 @@ This question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly This question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims. If he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously. He was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033. -",50,3 +",54,3 "What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/","Metaculus","[]","Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. However, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch. [Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). Data: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well. What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025? Resolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026. -",24,3 +",26,3 "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/","Metaculus","[]","Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year. As a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. If consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. Data: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information. By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025? Resolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously. -",19,3 +",20,3 "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/","Metaculus","[]","US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. Total vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/). Reports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world. When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year? Resolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously. -",35,3 +",36,3 "How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/","Metaculus","[]","Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon, and reduce the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions. China has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States. However, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. This should see a large number of new registrations in Europe over the next several years. @@ -7732,7 +7732,7 @@ Other Related Questions: [Electric Bus Registrations in Europe 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/) How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025? Resolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2025. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). This report should become available sometimes in 2026. -",29,3 +",31,3 "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes. Chile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. The U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. @@ -7746,12 +7746,12 @@ In this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian p Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030? This question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. This question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison. -",25,3 +",26,3 "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/): on Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference. Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025? This resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference. -",67,3 +",68,3 "When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5694/when-will-graphcore-ipo/","Metaculus","[]","[Graphcore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphcore) is a semiconductor company that develops accelerators for AI and machine learning. In a [2019 interview by Wired](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/graphcore-ai-intelligence-processing-unit), Nigel Toon was asked whether Graphcore's goal ultimately is to IPO. His response: That’s the path we’re shooting for, absolutely. @@ -7766,7 +7766,7 @@ This question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore is aqcuired by a private company This question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore ceases operations before going public. --- This question resolves as "">2035-11-10"" if it fails to resolve positively before 2035-11-10. -",21,3 +",22,3 "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/","Metaculus","[]","Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve. To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...] @@ -7786,7 +7786,7 @@ I agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. Will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024? If Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively. ",89,3 -"Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/). +"Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/). Joseph F. Huttner argued, 1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...] 2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...] @@ -7796,21 +7796,21 @@ Stephen W Snow countered, My reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables. Will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015? If the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively. -",32,3 +",34,3 "Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition. As of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) If Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897. Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024? This question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution. -",271,3 +",273,3 "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)). A tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests). As of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation. Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021? This question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt. There have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously. -",192,3 +",202,3 "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus","[]","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people. The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: @@ -7818,31 +7818,31 @@ Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compare When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people? This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed. If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. -",313,3 +",316,3 "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [""maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.""](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [""Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.""](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback) According to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be. Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? Will FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office? The question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. -",401,3 +",411,3 "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/). In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%. This question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month? Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts. -",154,3 +",158,3 "When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5744/date-when-150m-in-us-vaccinated-from-covid-19/","Metaculus","[]","COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, and resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Due to community spread of the virus throughout the United States and other countries, there has been interest in developing a vaccine to hopefully stop the spread of the virus. In November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more than 90% effective according to early trial data. Both vaccines require two doses per person. Government officials expect there to be 40 million doses from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine available in 2020 if both vaccines are approved, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. [(Washington Post)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/) By the end of 2021, Pfizer estimates it will be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, and Moderna estimates it will be able to produce 1 billion doses. [(The Guardian)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show) Based on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4. When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19? This question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023. -",66,3 -"Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response. +",69,3 +"Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response. This question asks: Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021? This question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively. If coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old. 2 February clarification: A ""significant reduction in immunity"" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper. -",454,3 +",473,3 "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/","Metaculus","[]","[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about ""per capita"" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP. What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050? ---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). @@ -7851,7 +7851,7 @@ Related questions: ---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) ---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) ---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* -",99,3 +",101,3 "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/","Metaculus","[]","Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him. Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? The question will resolve: @@ -7862,14 +7862,14 @@ The question will resolve: 5--None of the above The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue. If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. -",154,3 +",159,3 "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/","Metaculus","[]","In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. In 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence). However, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote). When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held? This resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale. ETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government. -",58,3 +",60,3 "Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5766/yang-to-run-for-nyc-mayor-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.020000000000000018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase. New York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already [several strong declared and potential candidates](https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/major-2021-mayoral-contenders.html), including [Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/11/eric-adams-runs-for-new-york-city-mayor.html). Yang has confirmed that [he is actively considering](http://www.wcny.org/andrew-yang-for-nyc-mayor-tbd/) a bid. Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021? @@ -7886,7 +7886,7 @@ If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December Related question ---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) ",130,3 -"Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). +"Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). Since then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008)) There have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions: There are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management). (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive) @@ -7901,7 +7901,7 @@ They need to be an executive for a listed company in a major index ---FTSE MIB ---Nikkei 225 Their imprisonment must start before 2026 -",42,3 +",47,3 "When will GTA VI be released in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/","Metaculus","[]","[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris. The latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV). When will GTA VI be released? @@ -7919,7 +7919,7 @@ When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus. While this question is intended as an operationalization of ""herd immunity"", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator. If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. -",639,3 +",653,3 "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble). What will US house prices be at the end of 2021? What will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021? @@ -7938,7 +7938,7 @@ When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected? This question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote. So this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected. If the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. -",25,3 +",29,3 "How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5800/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-effectiveness/","Metaculus","[]","According to [STAT](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/), early results from an AstraZeneca trial showed 70% efficacy. But that average hid a discrepancy: Two full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741. This half dose-full dose regimen was [administered by accident](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-dosing/dosing-error-turns-into-lucky-punch-for-astrazeneca-and-oxford-idUSKBN28327Q), in a non-random fashion, therefore violating the randomization assumption of an RCT. @@ -7950,14 +7950,14 @@ This question resolves after a reliable media report of the final study results This question closes retroactively 24hrs prior to the first interim results being reported. If no interim results are reported, this question closes 24hrs prior to when the final results are reported. If no RCT is conducted or the final results of an RCT are not reported by the resolve date of this question, it resolves ambiguous. If multiple RCTs are conducted, this question resolves based on the one for which the first reliable media report of the final study results. -",167,3 +",169,3 "How large will Monaco be in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/","Metaculus","[]","[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires) With an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world. To continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png) How large will Monaco be in 2035? This question resolves as the land area (in hectares) of Monaco as of 1 January 2035, according to the most recent estimate published as of that date. If Monaco ceases to exist as a sovereign state before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously. -",50,3 +",53,3 "When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/","Metaculus","[]","From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet), Despite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence that anyone has cloned human embryos. [...] From a technical perspective, cloning humans and other primates is more difficult than in other mammals. One reason is that two proteins essential to cell division, known as spindle proteins, are located very close to the chromosomes in primate eggs. Consequently, removal of the egg's nucleus to make room for the donor nucleus also removes the spindle proteins, interfering with cell division. In other mammals, such as cats, rabbits and mice, the two spindle proteins are spread throughout the egg. So, removal of the egg's nucleus does not result in loss of spindle proteins. In addition, some dyes and the ultraviolet light used to remove the egg's nucleus can damage the primate cell and prevent it from growing. @@ -7968,7 +7968,7 @@ Currently considered dead according to credible media Has an English Wikipedia entry that has existed for at least 15 years before the birth of the human clone When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born? This question will resolve on the date of birth of any clone of a prominent historical figure, as determined by credible media. -",17,3 +",19,3 "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/","Metaculus","[]","While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible. Various officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available. [Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated ""as early as April"": @@ -7981,15 +7981,15 @@ When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United Stat This question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide. Similar language to widely available, such as ""generally available"" or ""available for all who want it"", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question. To be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. -",405,3 -"Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons), +",409,3 +"Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons), The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021. For those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme. A mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands. While [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons). Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway? This question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. -",43,3 +",47,3 "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too. If Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen? 435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership. @@ -8004,7 +8004,7 @@ When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1? Resolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp. The question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase. Resolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor. -",18,3 +",20,3 "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021? Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? This question resolves ""Yes"" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves ""No"" otherwise. @@ -8012,7 +8012,7 @@ If this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to The time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC. If bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves ""No"". If [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. -",604,3 +",610,3 "How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5827/dc-charging-stations-in-boulder-co-by-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background ========== @@ -8059,19 +8059,19 @@ Data: Data on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. Historical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show. ",41,3 -"Will China land the next person on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024. +"Will China land the next person on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024. Will China land the next person on the Moon? This question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise. This question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report. For a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country. -",62,3 +",64,3 "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/","Metaculus","[]","The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%? This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that: Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior. Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD. [World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used. -",70,3 +",73,3 "How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question). How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021? This question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as reported by the FDA or credible media. @@ -8080,8 +8080,8 @@ This question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as re This question mirrors [a question I wrote for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/). I created this question because it has a longer timeline, and therefore can potentially be informed by [the recent Deepmind protein folding breakthrough](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphafold-a-solution-to-a-50-year-old-grand-challenge-in-biology). It's also a good test for [Eroom's law](https://www.theifod.com/erooms-law-explaining-the-decline-in-drug-discovery/), the observation that drugs have gotten exponentially more difficult to develop over time. How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035? This question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2035, as reported by the FDA or credible media. In case the FDA is abolished before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously. -",19,3 -"On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), ""about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden"". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists. +",21,3 +"On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), ""about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden"". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists. Some other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started. Will the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year? This question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of: @@ -8100,7 +8100,7 @@ Joe Biden lost in 2020 This question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views. This question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November. November is defined according to UTC -",170,3 +",172,3 "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/","Metaculus","[]","Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself. However, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions. Attempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal. @@ -8108,7 +8108,7 @@ Given the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this ques When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year? This question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of ""oldest person to have lived"" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period. For example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060. -",38,3 +",40,3 "When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/","Metaculus","[]","[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence) Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft. When will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time? @@ -8130,7 +8130,7 @@ What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be? The official winning time of the Women's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous Related questions: [Men's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/) -",49,3 +",51,3 "Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/). Robert D Atkinson argued, U.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the ""low hanging fruit has been picked."" Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the ""s-curve"" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor) @@ -8138,7 +8138,7 @@ Alberto Forchielli countered, We have not seen 3% productivity growth in USA for many years. Predicting such growth is highly speculative at this point since there are way too many uncertainties. Moreover assuming such growth entails large investment amounts not just in R&D but also downstream. I fear US economy will see itself constrained by China worldwide expansion. Protectionist tendencies and the emergence of formidable Chinese competitors will constrain the development of US companies making it more difficult to achieve high productivity enhancements. In other words, the world economic context will change to such a degree that we will have to revise all our economic and business hypothesis derived from past experiences and extrapolated from futuristic assumptions embedded in history. Will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above? If Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Alberto Forchielli is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively. -",22,3 +",25,3 "Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Robert D Atkinson and Jason W Galbraith summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/687/). Robert D Atkinson argued, Increasingly a large number of pundits and scholars, including Eric Brynjolfsson, Martin Ford, Andrew McAfee, and Vivek Wadhwa, have argued that technology is rapidly advancing and will soon lead large scale displacement of workers with technology. These views have rapidly become the prevailing wisdom regarding emerging technology with the result being that voters and policy makers are now more likely to resist technological change and automation, rather than embrace it. But the ""robots are killing our jobs"" proponents miss the fact that automation lowers prices (or raises wages) which in turn spurs increased demand for goods and services, and hence labor. As such there is no reason to believe that either unemployment or the share of adults in the workforce will decline in any significantly way going forward. @@ -8146,7 +8146,7 @@ Alberto Forchielli countered, The United States will certainly experience a recession in the next six years. As a result, the workforce participation rate will fall below 60 percent and this time, automation and de-industrialization will keep it there at least through June 2025. Will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?? If Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Jason W Galbraith is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively. -",28,3 +",29,3 "What will US house prices be at the end of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble) What will US house prices be at the end of 2030? What will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2030? @@ -8155,7 +8155,7 @@ For example: ---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 ---for Sep-2020 this value is: If these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously. -",44,3 +",47,3 "Will online poker die by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/) Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train. In 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/) @@ -8167,13 +8167,13 @@ This question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two This question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites. If there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. The rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. -",89,3 +",93,3 "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), Gross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP In the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&D. What will that number be in 2030? What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030? This question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media. -",27,3 +",30,3 "Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election), Before, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was ""the most secure in American history."" Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was ""no evidence of widespread fraud"" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition. Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party? @@ -8188,7 +8188,7 @@ Fewer than 20% of congressional members of the losing party believe that their c A survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey participants who are members of the losing party state that the election was ""probably"" or ""definitely"" free and fair in the most recent such survey following projections from both the AP and Fox News. The relevant survey for 2020 can be found [here](https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/). Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. For the purpose of this question, a network is said to have ""projected"" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of ""projected"" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection. -",212,3 +",213,3 "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis. 2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [""gold standard""](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). Revelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). @@ -8205,8 +8205,8 @@ The question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs. "Will the Open Courts Act become law?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records. Will the Open Courts Act become law? This question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively. -",63,3 -"Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures. +",65,3 +"Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures. [Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars. [The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project. SpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program). @@ -8217,7 +8217,7 @@ Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030? This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there. This question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030. UTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. -",62,3 +",114,3 "Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces. As of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. Throughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)) parties. @@ -8226,7 +8226,7 @@ The Republican Party has never had a female nominee for president, but has had o Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican? For a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts. If there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. -",59,3 +",60,3 "What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5887/pantones-color-of-the-year-for-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Every year since 2000, Pantone conducts a secretive process to select their ""Color of the Year"", which they usually announce for the upcoming year around early December. Let's see if we can forecast the Color for 2022. What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022? The question will be resolved according to the approximate [hue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hue) of the Color as estimated by the relevant [Encycolorpedia entry](https://encycolorpedia.com/). @@ -8253,15 +8253,15 @@ The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 Ja "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5907/number-confirmed-global-covid-deaths-by-2022/","Metaculus","[]","As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021? The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted. -",145,3 +",149,3 "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/","Metaculus","[]","As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? The [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021. -",459,3 +",461,3 "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/","Metaculus","[]","As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021? The OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine. -",192,3 +",195,3 "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/","Metaculus","[]","As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. So far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter. In a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: @@ -8275,26 +8275,26 @@ Novavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial Sanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021? The FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered. -",215,3 +",217,3 "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/","Metaculus","[]","On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents. When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? The issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries. If the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.” -",204,3 +",207,3 "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed. Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution. -",186,3 +",187,3 "Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a [Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans](https://joebiden.com/healthcare/). It [seems likely](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option. Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. A public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution. -",133,3 +",134,3 "Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016. Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA? This will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame. If the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous. -",218,3 +",225,3 "When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5917/date-us-rejoins-paris-climate-agreement/","Metaculus","[]","On 4 November 2020, the U.S. [formally withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54797743). This comes after President Trump announced such a move in June 2017, though it did not take effect until 4 November 2020. President-elect Joe Biden has [indicated](https://joebiden.com/climate-plan/) he will recommit the U.S. to the Paris Climate Agreement. Biden [would not need Senate support](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/biden-to-rejoin-paris-climate-accord-heres-what-happens-next-.html) to rejoin since the accord is an executive agreement. Biden’s administration will just have to send a letter to the United Nations stating the intention to rejoin, and the official return would take effect in 30 days. When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement? @@ -8304,13 +8304,13 @@ If the U.S. does not announce it intends to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement b "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting. Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? This question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference. -",111,3 +",113,3 "Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon. Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026? This will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. For a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of India for this to resolve positively. An Indian citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country. -",35,3 +",38,3 "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact. Will the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate. @@ -8318,11 +8318,11 @@ This will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. "What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics. -",170,3 -"Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland. +",171,3 +"Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland. Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively. -",219,3 +",233,3 "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. As we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp). What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021? @@ -8332,11 +8332,11 @@ Resolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Econom As new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth. Will will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? Resolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). -",93,3 +",95,3 "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue. Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)? This will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time. -",275,3 +",277,3 "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/","Metaculus","[]","Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500. What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value. @@ -8368,7 +8368,7 @@ This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023. Related question ---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) -",107,3 +",108,3 "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019. What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021? The “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD. @@ -8396,7 +8396,7 @@ This question resolves positively if a Glastonbury Festival with at least 100,00 "What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/","Metaculus","[]","[Artificial Intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is causing job losses in many sectors. While the most obvious jobs being lost are related to easily automatizable tasks in factories [[1](http://(https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/understanding-job-loss-predictions-from-artificial-intelligence/))], [many expect](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/08/self-driving-cars-will-destroy-a-lot-of-jobs-theyll-also-create-a-lot/) large numbers of jobs to be lost in the transportation sector in the coming years due to self-driving cars. However, not all job losses are related to lower class workers, [but also to higher class such as lawyers](https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/02/09/will-a-i-put-lawyers-out-of-business/). These trends affect all industrialized nations. The German unemployment rate has, however, been [decreasing steadily for a number of years](http://(https://www.statista.com/statistics/227005/unemployment-rate-in-germany/)). What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025? ---Numbers will be taken from [the Arbeitsagentur (the Federal Employment Agency)](https://www.arbeitsagentur.de/en/welcome). For instance, [the 2017 numbers are available in the 2020 report](https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/DE/Statischer-Content/Statistiken/Themen-im-Fokus/Berufe/Generische-Publikationen/Broschuere-Akademiker.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4), page 90. A total of 356000 people with a law degree in the workforce, and 4600 unemployed, thus giving a rate of 1.3%. -",30,3 +",32,3 "What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -8412,7 +8412,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== This question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook). -",37,3 +",38,3 "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -8459,7 +8459,7 @@ Resolution Criteria This question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2022. A question for Q1 2021 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4705/what-will-be-the-average-percentage-change-in-property-and-casualty-insurance-premiums-in-q1-2021/) ",23,3 -"For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context +"For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context ======= In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, the US unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April, but has since decreased to 6.7% by November. @@ -8471,14 +8471,14 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. -",47,3 +",49,3 "How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. As of February 2021, their website lists 9 member athletes, as well as 29 athletes who are not member athletes as they have not made a pledge at 2% or higher. This question asks: How many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021? To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. If HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as <20. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Athletes who have made a pledge but later decided to stop following it shall not count for the purposes of resolution. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to more than 2%, athletes will count if their pledge is at least the minimum commitment at the time they made it. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to less than 2%, athletes pledging less than 2% shall not be counted for the purposes of this question. ",54,3 -"Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. +"Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. The effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. [Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click): For both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day. @@ -8487,14 +8487,14 @@ Question resolves ""Yes"" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific lit The relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster. Question will resolve ""No"" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality. Question receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for ""Yes"" or ""No"" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall. -",147,3 +",153,3 "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/","Metaculus","[]","The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%? This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that: Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior. Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD. [World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used. -",32,3 +",36,3 "How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge, and $44,000 already donated. This question asks: How much money will have been donated by HIA athletes by the end of 2021? @@ -8508,7 +8508,7 @@ What fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will mainta To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. If HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous. For athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. -",29,3 +",31,3 "Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6007/vaccine-update-due-to-mutation/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There are already several notable variants of SARS-COV-2 circulating, two of the highest profile are described below. In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. On 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. Three days later, in response, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55056375) a new set of national restrictions, including a ""Tier 4"" full lockdown across the southeast, and considerable curtailment of the plans to ease restrictions for 5 days over the Christmas period. @@ -8523,7 +8523,7 @@ The vaccine does not need to be approved before the resolution date. --- Some of these vaccines were developed in a partnership between two companies. The updated vaccine doesn’t need to be part of the same partnership. For example, if AstraZeneca starts working on an updated vaccine independently, that is sufficient for positive resolution. ",317,3 -"Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London. +"Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London. The spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility: The new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective. Over time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary. @@ -8535,7 +8535,7 @@ This question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States C ---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. ---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. ---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. -",230,3 +",241,3 "What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/","Metaculus","[]","Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are ""probable healthcare-associated infections"". In the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings? --- @@ -8546,7 +8546,7 @@ Resolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median est If no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available. --- Estimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. -",87,3 +",89,3 "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring): Elden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more ""natural evolution"" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games. As of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released. @@ -8554,7 +8554,7 @@ When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? This will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. If Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as "">2025-12-30"". In case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what ""Elden Ring"" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins. -",29,3 +",31,3 "When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6016/when-will-us-jobless-claims-fall-below-300k/","Metaculus","[]","A definition courtesy of [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA): An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program. A falling number of initial jobless claims is generally interpreted as indicating an improving economic situation, and a rising number vice versa. Before 2020-03-21, initial jobless claims had been below 300k for over 5 years, or 263 consecutive weeks. In the data series going back to 1967, the figure had never exceeded 700k. @@ -8562,7 +8562,7 @@ Initial claims for the week ending 2020-03-21 were 3.3MM, 11.7x the previous wee When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand? This prediction resolves when the US Department of Labor reports a seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims lower than 300,000. Data are to be found here: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) The resolution uses the ""observation date,"" which is the Saturday before the report is released. So if a report is released 2021-02-03 for the week ending 2021-01-30, the resolution date is 2021-01-30. -",21,3 +",24,3 "Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Restaurant Brands International is the parent company for Burger King and various other fast-food chains. In their [now-taken-down 2016 Sustainability Framework](https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210) (p. 6.) ([archive link #1](https://web.archive.org/web/20200902082204/https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210), [archive link #2](https://archive.is/JcAS2)), they stated: “Restaurant Brands International is committed to sourcing pork globally only from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls, and we aim to accomplish this goal in North America by 2022.” A gestation crate, also known as a sow stall, is a metal enclosure in which a farmed sow used for breeding may be kept during pregnancy. Animal welfare advocates regard the use of gestation crates as one of the most inhumane features of intensive animal production. (Source: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gestation_crate)) @@ -8583,7 +8583,7 @@ Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, ded Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025? Question will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025. This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. -",44,3 +",46,3 "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/","Metaculus","[]","The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance. When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university? To qualify as a ""top"", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught. @@ -8592,7 +8592,7 @@ If QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will If the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced. This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. Edit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. -",98,3 +",101,3 "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in ""[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)"", the evaluation criteria are described in ""[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)"". As of November 2020, the [Good Food Fund](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/good-food-fund/), which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below ""Top Charity"". Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022? @@ -8635,7 +8635,7 @@ This question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded A. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic. B. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves) This question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is ""for"" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question. -",26,3 +",34,3 "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims ""to re-open borders without quarantine"" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [""immunoprivilege,""](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be. How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? --- @@ -8644,7 +8644,7 @@ Applies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even i In accordance with ICAO practice, ""passengers"" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times. --- Resolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. -",166,3 +",169,3 "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants. We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. Another variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases: @@ -8669,7 +8669,7 @@ In December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breakin When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more? Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100. Inflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -",185,3 +",187,3 "Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6599999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There are many prediction markets now. Some popular ones are Predictit, FTX, Polymarket, and Augur. The latter three are crypto based; FTX being centralized while the other two are decentralized. Some crypto projects (unrelated to prediction markets) have been hacked, causing users to lose money. Some other crypto projects have led to exit scams with the same effect. Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023? @@ -8683,17 +8683,17 @@ The risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened? This question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). This will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question. -",21,3 +",23,3 "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year. Since 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932. Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect? This resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press. -",81,3 +",82,3 "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/) Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary -",517,3 +",519,3 "What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/","Metaculus","[]","Background ========== @@ -8706,7 +8706,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. -",25,3 +",27,3 "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background ========== @@ -8800,7 +8800,7 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race). When unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment. -",50,3 +",52,3 "How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background ========== @@ -8848,12 +8848,19 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== Resolution will come from the [United States Census Bureau from Figure 5](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html) (as of 12/20). Figure 5 is labeled as ""Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio and Median Earnings of Full-Time, Year-Round Workers 15 Years and Older by Sex: 1960 to 2019."" Historical data is also available from 1959 onward. Predictions should be represented as the a ratio between 0 and 1. -",20,3 -"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset. +",23,3 +"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset. In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process. Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021? This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office). -",180,3 +",197,3 +"How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/","Metaculus","[]","related questions on Metaculus: +---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) +As of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986. +Some activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory). +How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01? +This question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution. +",15,3 "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, ""I Want My Hat Back""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/","Metaculus","[]","The ending of the children's book ""[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)"" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI? I call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test. I am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). @@ -8863,7 +8870,7 @@ When will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book ""I Want This resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book ""I Want My Hat Back"" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question ""What Happened to the rabbit?"" within no more than five tries. Correct responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (""The bear ate it"", ""It was eaten by the bear"", or some equivalent). If no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as "">2041-01-01"". -",222,3 +",225,3 "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). In previous years, the total amounts granted were: ---2020: $14,210,367 @@ -8881,7 +8888,7 @@ The ""Core CPI"" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Ser Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? This question resolves ""yes"" if the 12-month ""Core CPI"" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023. This question resolves ""no"" if the 12-month ""Core CPI"" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023. -",19,3 +",20,3 "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for ""discriminating Russian media's content"". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him. Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively. @@ -8898,7 +8905,7 @@ Hybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019 Authoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019 What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021? This prediction resolves as the raw, unweighted arithmetic mean of all scores as assigned by The Economist for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). -",33,3 +",35,3 "How many countries will be considered ""full democracies"" (score higher than 8) by *The Economist* in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6101/number-of-full-democracies-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Every year The Economist publishes the ""Democracy Index,"" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered ""Full democracies."" The 4 categories are: --- @@ -8911,7 +8918,7 @@ Hybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019 Authoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019 How many countries will be considered ""full democracies"" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?* This prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as ""Full democracies"" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). -",19,3 +",36,3 "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others. Will an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022? Will a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)? @@ -8931,7 +8938,7 @@ However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-Co When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19? This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus. Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. -",187,3 +",188,3 "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/","Metaculus","[]","[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)] In March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US. As of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing). @@ -8959,7 +8966,7 @@ Edge cases: ---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities where each original charity existed prior to 2021, then it is considered to have existed in 2020. ---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities, at least one of which was founded after 2020, then it is considered NOT to have existed in 2020. ---If a charity that was founded in 2020 spins off a separate entity in 2021 or later, then the new entity is considered to have existed in 2020. -",34,3 +",35,3 "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6110/2025-ea-survey-donations-to-global-poverty/","Metaculus","[]","Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each: 1--global poverty: 39% 2--cause prioritization: 24% @@ -8970,7 +8977,7 @@ In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to Donation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously. The set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey. If global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously. -",15,3 +",18,3 "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/","Metaculus","[]","[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat. [The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. @@ -8989,17 +8996,17 @@ In [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_ [Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election. What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election? This question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously. -",95,3 +",107,3 "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/","Metaculus","[]","A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. Two previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it. When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available? This question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution. -",66,3 +",74,3 "How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6114/will-the-senate-confirm-many-judges-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy. In 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, [the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see previous Metaculus question here)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/). However, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So: How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021? Resolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time. -",80,3 +",81,3 "When will there be at least one billion Americans?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/","Metaculus","[]","[One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020. One Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities. As of January 2021, [the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.](https://www.census.gov/popclock/) @@ -9010,45 +9017,58 @@ If the question does not resolve before January 1, 2121, it resolves as ""After If no estimate from the Census Bureau is available (or an estimate from an equivalent department of the US government), another credible source, such as the CIA World Factbook or United Nations will be used. This question resolves when any of these sources estimate that at least one billion persons live in the United States. If any of the listed sources cease to exist before the question resolves, Metaculus administrators may select new credible sources of information. This question tracks the resident population (not just US citizens) of every state in the US, as well as territories within the contiguous US. In 2021, this means the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia, and the various American Indian reservations, but not Puerto Rico, American Samoa, etc. [Emulated people](https://ageofem.com/) shall be counted if they are included in the Census Bureau's typical (default) estimates of US residency. -",70,3 +",71,3 "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/","Metaculus","[]","The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that ""basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society"". In 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3. In 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world. What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025? This question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025. If there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. -",34,3 +",45,3 "When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/","Metaculus","[]","AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4. However, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure. The United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371): Americans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups. When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? This question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change. -",85,3 +",88,3 "How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing improvement to be sure, but still well within the ≥1 logMAR score region considered legally blind. How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030? The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a retinal implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people. The logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. -",53,3 +",54,3 "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as ""basically a modified Argus II,"" it is likely to be approved within a few years. How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030? The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people. The logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. -",47,3 +",49,3 "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/","Metaculus","[]","The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day. Recently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants. What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021 This question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. This question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for. -",120,3 +",128,3 +"How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background +========== + +According to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. +If labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. +Since the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster. +How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US. +",15,3 "How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6140/how-much-money-will-givewell-move-in-2031/","Metaculus","[]","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. GiveWell tracks how much money it moves to recommended charities. For instance, GiveWell [moved $152 million](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/) in 2019. How much money will GiveWell move in 2031? If GiveWell does not exist, this question resolves as ambiguous. If GiveWell does not report its money moved in 2031 and this information is not publicly accessible, this question resolves as ambiguous. For this question, money moved equals the amount that can confidently be attributed to GiveWell's recommendations (in [the 2019 post](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/), ""headline money moved"" rather than ""best guess of total money directed to charities""). -",15,3 +",18,3 "How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6142/us-states-with-gini-scores-5-by-2025/","Metaculus","[]","“In economics, the [Gini coefficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient#:~:text=The%20Gini%20coefficient%20is%20a,from%20a%20totally%20equal%20distribution.) (/ˈdʒiːni/ JEE-nee), sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. It was developed by the Italian statistician and sociologist Corrado Gini and published in his 1912 paper Variability and Mutability (Italian: Variabilità e mutabilità).” Used to measure a country’s income inequality across the globe, the Gini Index has recently been appropriated by the ACS (American Community Services) to measure income inequality between households across the states and territories of the United States. [The index](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/acs-1year.html#:~:text=The%20Gini%20index%20is%20a,has%20all%20of%20the%20income.) ranges from 0 to 1, with complete equality at 0 and complete inequality at 1. Currently, most states and territories lie between the [0.4 and 0.5](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf) mark, with several notable exceptions above the 0.5 mark including Puerto Rico, New York, Connecticut, and Washington D.C. By 2018, income inequality in the US was the [worst out of all the G7 nations](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/6-facts-about-economic-inequality-in-the-u-s/) with a Gini coefficient of .434. With the onset of the global Coronavirus pandemic in 2020, these inequalities have grown even greater. @@ -9065,7 +9085,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== The resolution for this question will be provided through the United States Census Bureau and their [annual report on household income](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.html). It will come from their 2025 annual report, for which an example report from 2019 can be found [here](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf). -",15,3 +",20,3 "What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background ========== @@ -9099,7 +9119,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== Resolution will come from [Baker Hughes rig count](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview). -",23,3 +",29,3 "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Background ========== @@ -9113,7 +9133,7 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well. This question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise. -",89,3 +",94,3 "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Background ========== @@ -9159,7 +9179,7 @@ If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1 When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the tournament resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period. The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. -",103,3 +",105,3 "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). @@ -9174,7 +9194,7 @@ the question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2022-01-14 --- positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the December 2020 values the 2022-01-14 values. -",121,3 +",124,3 "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6154/sota-one-billion-words-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited. @@ -9183,7 +9203,7 @@ An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode]( What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data? This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2022-01-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -",118,3 +",123,3 "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. Index @@ -9203,7 +9223,7 @@ If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-construct Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100. For the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. -",100,3 +",104,3 "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -9218,7 +9238,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---80 for the calendar year 2017 ---127 for the calendar year 2018 ---275 for the calendar year 2019 -",100,3 +",102,3 "Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There is [theoretical](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382922/) and [observational](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20143339v2) data suggesting SSRI antidepressants might be helpful for Covid. Fluvoxamine (brand name Luvox) is an SSRI with [strong Sigma1R activation](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24508523/), which [may also be relevant](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00406-020-01231-x). A recent [small preregistered RCT](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2773108) of Fluvoxamine reported a very positive effect, as did a not-yet-published [observational report](https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AOES37qSxYr%5FN88&cid=F3C3887684911EE4&id=F3C3887684911EE4%2163948&parId=F3C3887684911EE4%2159777&o=OneUp). A [larger trial is underway](https://stopcovidtrial.wustl.edu/) by the same investigators as the first one. Summaries of the case for Fluvoxamine are available [here](https://www.treatearly.org/promising-drugs) and [here](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1u7resy2bGA1_HIgj6Nc7ahzeS7DrpOtkiK5ywhQhmpk/edit#slide=id.gaeebd14cc9_0_79) from the director of a nonprofit which partially funded both trials. A writeup from WIRED magazine can be found [here](https://www.wired.com/story/how-a-medication-for-ocd-ended-up-in-a-covid-19-trial/). @@ -9236,12 +9256,12 @@ When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house. By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions. To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed."" -",122,3 +",124,3 "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people. When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? This question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn. 'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others. -",83,3 +",91,3 "How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6175/number-of-united-states-presidents/","Metaculus","[]","The [United States of America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) is a North American country that was established on July 4, 1776. The first [President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) was George Washington, and Donald John Trump is the 45th and current President. Although it may seem hard to imagine a future where there is no President of the United States for an extended period of time, political systems and the fates of nations change over time. Until now, there have only been [minor gaps of a few days](https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-longest-time-the-United-States-has-gone-without-a-president) between the end of one president's term and the swearing in of the next. @@ -9249,7 +9269,7 @@ How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be, until that o The question will resolve after the first span of three consecutive months where the office of the President of the United States is vacant, retroactively to the time at which the office became vacant. The time of resolution will be determined by the judgement of the Metaculus moderators on the basis of reliable news reports. If the chief executive office is renamed, such that there is no longer a President of the United States, but there is still a single chief executive with the same or broadly similar powers and responsibilities, this will not trigger resolution. The aim of the question is to identify the date when there is no longer a single chief executive officer of the US. The question shall track presidents who are democratically elected, or those appointed through the constitutional line of succession. If the US constitution is amended, such that presidents no longer have term limits or are appointed by other methods, the question will include those presidents, so long as they hold their power legally (defined by the contemporaneous constitution). -",46,3 +",47,3 "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) @@ -9265,7 +9285,7 @@ This will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as me Any conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included. Conflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support. Deaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. -",192,3 +",194,3 "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. @@ -9276,7 +9296,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",108,3 +",109,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. @@ -9287,7 +9307,7 @@ This question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, a For the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",140,3 +",142,3 "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. @@ -9297,7 +9317,7 @@ This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [th Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify. In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",96,3 +",102,3 "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -9312,7 +9332,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---45 for the calendar year 2017 ---71 for the calendar year 2018 ---91 for the calendar year 2019 -",80,3 +",82,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. @@ -9322,7 +9342,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on m This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",107,3 +",111,3 "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). @@ -9334,7 +9354,7 @@ The following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](htt When we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2: When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. -",92,3 +",93,3 "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. @@ -9342,37 +9362,37 @@ What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best availab This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/). GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. -",101,3 -"Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6197/brazil-fifa-world-cup-win-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil. +",103,3 +"Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6197/brazil-fifa-world-cup-win-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil. Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050? 2050 World Cup is included to this resolution. FIFA World Cup is considered the official tournament hosted under FIFA. If any World Cup prior of 2050 is moved after 2050 it does not count. -",15,3 +",20,3 "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/","Metaculus","[]","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? Resolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. -",287,3 +",317,3 "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/","Metaculus","[]","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? Resolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. -",167,3 +",189,3 "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse? Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021? This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000. If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/). Data updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week). This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. -",426,3 -"Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. +",429,3 +"Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. Members of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. There are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building. Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20? This question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state. Resolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. -",163,3 +",166,3 "How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/","Metaculus","[]","From the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/health-wellness/article/3103054/freezing-bodies-reanimation-china-and-why-countrys), The Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is the only cryonics research centre in China and one of only four such institutes in the world. The centres provide cryonic suspension: preserving bodies at extremely low temperatures with the hope of one day “reviving” them. But Yinfeng’s research goes further, and has the potential to revolutionise organ transplant, body-part reattachment and other medical treatments. According to the Oregon Cryonics page on [terminology](http://www.oregoncryo.com/terminology.html), @@ -9381,12 +9401,12 @@ As of September 27th 2020, the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026? This question resolves as the number of patients stored by the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute as of the most recent media or official report published before 2026. If no such report is published after or during 2024, this question resolves ambiguously. In case the organization changes its name, this question resolves according to the new organization, which is its successor. In the case the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute goes bankrupt or ceases to exist, this question resolves as the number of patients they stored before they stopped existing, if a report was published after or during 2024. -",18,3 +",20,3 "When will the next interstellar object be discovered?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/","Metaculus","[]","The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019. Although only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained. When will the next interstellar object be discovered? This question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [""I"" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available ""[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)"" data, this question resolves when the formal ""interstellar"" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before 12/31/2030, this question resolves as "">12/31/30."" -",45,3 +",46,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6227/sota-segmentation-cityscapes-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf). [Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames. @@ -9395,7 +9415,7 @@ An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode]( What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%) amongst models not trained on additional data? This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -",94,3 +",95,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6228/sota-on-imagenet-2026-12-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. @@ -9406,7 +9426,7 @@ This question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, a For the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",80,3 +",82,3 "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. @@ -9417,7 +9437,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",92,3 +",94,3 "What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html) @@ -9427,7 +9447,7 @@ This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (for a description of 'domain knowledge' in the context of Montezuma's Revenge, see [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)). In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",138,3 +",145,3 "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14? @@ -9447,7 +9467,7 @@ A benchmark will be removed from the index if: If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. -",86,3 +",89,3 "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6232/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-21/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. @@ -9456,7 +9476,7 @@ What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 s This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2021 TOP500 list. Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -",96,3 +",98,3 "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list? @@ -9465,7 +9485,7 @@ You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.o Data Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -",95,3 +",98,3 "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). @@ -9474,7 +9494,7 @@ This question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = Data Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -",125,3 +",130,3 "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). @@ -9488,7 +9508,7 @@ the question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2026-12-14 --- positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O-NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2026-12-14. -",107,3 +",112,3 "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/","Metaculus","[]","From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan): 4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK. 4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date. @@ -9497,7 +9517,7 @@ The UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www. When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? This question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000. If there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report. -",305,3 +",323,3 "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). @@ -9506,14 +9526,14 @@ Brynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued tha What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14? This resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. As of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%. -",97,3 +",105,3 "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/","Metaculus","[]","This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. [According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th). When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500? This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends). If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. If no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021. -",167,3 +",170,3 "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6245/few-shot-learning-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -9528,7 +9548,7 @@ The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=& ---203 for the calendar year 2017 ---350 for the calendar year 2018 ---700 for the calendar year 2019 -",93,3 +",97,3 "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -9545,7 +9565,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 ---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 ---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 -",76,3 +",77,3 "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in average precision (AP)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6248/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is YOLOv4- large [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.08036v1.pdf), which achieves an average precision (AP) of 55.8. @@ -9563,7 +9583,7 @@ This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Producti The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. -",88,3 +",91,3 "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6250/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -9580,14 +9600,14 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 ---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 ---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 -",74,3 +",76,3 "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. The list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. Only 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B. When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company? This question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share. As a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded. -",25,3 +",27,3 "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14? @@ -9607,28 +9627,28 @@ A benchmark will be removed from the index if: If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. -",73,3 +",76,3 "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD? This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. -",62,3 +",64,3 "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills. In the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD? This question resolves as the median wage for ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). Prices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. -",65,3 +",67,3 "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/","Metaculus","[]","As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day. When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19? This question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test. This should resolve according to [the ""by date of death"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the ""by date reported"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media. Note that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier). If still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths. -",175,3 -"Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here. +",182,3 +"Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here. As Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes. A key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member. Here are some articles describing these issues: @@ -9647,7 +9667,7 @@ For the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken ---Melania Trump ---Barron Trump ---Jared Kushner -",166,3 +",171,3 "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is a meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat. Consumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming. @@ -9679,7 +9699,7 @@ Related Questions ---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) If the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication. -",212,3 +",218,3 "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -9695,7 +9715,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 ---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 ---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 -",77,3 +",78,3 "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -9711,7 +9731,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 ---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 ---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 -",77,3 +",79,3 "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -9728,7 +9748,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 ---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 ---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 -",63,3 +",64,3 "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). @@ -9739,7 +9759,7 @@ What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to U This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind). in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). -",69,3 +",73,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. @@ -9749,30 +9769,30 @@ What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on m This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",85,3 +",87,3 "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. -",75,3 +",77,3 "What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/","Metaculus","[]","For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years. Yet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called ""third-party candidates"" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%. What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? This resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%. -",47,3 +",50,3 "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6306/2024-us-popular-vote-3rd-party-at-least-10/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election). The most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.) Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? This prediction resolves positive if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 5% or more of the national popular vote, and negative if one does not. -",84,3 +",89,3 "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. There have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. The above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd). Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021? This question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes](https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/housingdata) for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for ""S.F. Bay Area"" is <= $1.045mm -",33,3 +",40,3 "What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6308/change-in-stis-from-2019-to-2020-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","The prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the UK has [increased over the past 3 years](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/912781/2019_Table_1_New_STI_diagnoses_and_rates_in_England_by_gender.ods). However, it has been suggested that the Covid-19 pandemic [might affect the epidemiology of STIs](https://sti.bmj.com/content/early/2020/08/12/sextrans-2020-054543). How will the number of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England change from 2019 to 2020, in percent? @@ -9796,11 +9816,11 @@ How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? The [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) will provide the final numbers. This question resolves on January 31th 2025 at noon, at the latest (Federal Register numbers can take a few days after the White House’s statements). Related Questions ---[How much will President Trump govern by decree](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1430/how-much-will-president-trump-govern-by-decree/) -",55,3 +",58,3 "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879). Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President. -",163,3 +",165,3 "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025? This question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. @@ -9809,21 +9829,21 @@ This question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in off In 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently [estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October/weo-report?c=534,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PPPSH,PCPIPCH,&sy=1980&ey=2020&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1). Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021? Resolution will be based on the [Federal Reserve Economic Data series NAEXKP01INQ657S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=NAEXKP01INQ657S,), which shows seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter growth in India's GDP at constant 2015 prices. The question will resolve positive if all three data points for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2021 are positive. It will resolve negative otherwise. -",42,3 -"Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6318/70-earthquake-east-mediterranean-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to [earthquaketrack.com](http://earthquaketrack.com) the largest quake this past year: 6.6 in Néa Anatolí, Crete, Greece +",44,3 +"Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6318/70-earthquake-east-mediterranean-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to [earthquaketrack.com](http://earthquaketrack.com) the largest quake this past year: 6.6 in Néa Anatolí, Crete, Greece The area is geologically active an had an estimated 8-8.5 earthquake in 365 A.D. The 365 Crete earthquake occurred at about sunrise on 21 July 365 in the Eastern Mediterranean, with an assumed epicenter near Crete Geologists today estimate the undersea earthquake to have been a magnitude 8.0 or higher. It caused widespread destruction in central and southern Greece, northern Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, Sicily, and Spain. On Crete, nearly all towns were destroyed. The Crete earthquake was followed by a tsunami which devastated the southern and eastern coasts of the Mediterranean, particularly Libya, Alexandria and the Nile Delta, killing thousands and hurling ships 3 km (1.9 mi) inland. Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021? This question will resolve if by Dec. 31 2021 an earthquake measuring 7.0 or larger occurring either underneath or within 80 Kilometres from sea shores of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, being defined as a line running from Southern Sicily thru Malta to Misrata Libya. This will include the whole Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea, and Leviathan Sea. Earthquake must be verified by either: European-Mediterranean Seismological Center Earthquake Track -",35,3 +",39,3 "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers. Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? ---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. ---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. ---Platforms must be open to the public. -",171,3 +",175,3 "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6323/flights-on-commonpass-health-passport-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The World Economic Forum and The Commons Project Foundation are launching [CommonPass](https://commonpass.org/), an app intended as ""a secure and verifiable way [for travelers] to document their health status as they travel and cross borders,"" including COVID-19 vaccination and testing information. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [""immunoprivilege""](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good); professor Douglas Kamerow of the British Medical Journal [fears a new class divide,](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n85) but would be reassured ""if some government agencies or WHO were leading this activity""; and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be, but major airline alliances are already signed on and the system is in the early deployment phase. How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass? --- @@ -9832,7 +9852,7 @@ Applies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even i In accordance with ICAO practice, ""passengers"" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times. --- Resolves according to official CommonPass, ICAO, or IATA statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. -",84,3 +",91,3 "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/","Metaculus","[]","Related questions: [When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/) [When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/) @@ -9847,7 +9867,7 @@ Since then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. Non When, if ever, will people <18 years old vote in national elections in the US? This question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President. Only [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections are not relevant to the question. -",59,3 +",61,3 "How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, [14 countries](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) allow voting by young people with no major restrictions (as of Jan. 16, 2021). Another 14 countries allow some citizens <18 years of age suffrage with major qualifications, usually related to marriage, employment, or type of election. A number of [movements or proposals to allow minors to vote](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/us/politics/voting-age.html) are active or have been proposed in dozens of countries as of 2021. How many countries will allow people younger than 18 to vote, with no major conditions, in 2026? @@ -9856,19 +9876,19 @@ Restrictions commonly applied to voting adults do not disqualify a country; it's Voting age must be lowered at least ten months below 18 years old to count; e.g. 17-year-old suffrage counts, but 17.5-year-old suffrage does not. At least 70% of the age group in question must be enfranchised to count; places like Germany and the US where minors may vote in states or municipalities comprising <70% of the country's population do not suffice. Resolution will use [the NYRA tracker](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) as a primary source, or [Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_age) and credible media reports if necessary. -",27,3 -"Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). +",28,3 +"Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). There has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0). Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. Reporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. -",232,3 +",275,3 "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates. Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. In the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. -",196,3 -"Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics: +",197,3 +"Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics: The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states. --[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) CDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU. @@ -9878,7 +9898,7 @@ Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU u This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative. The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed. In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened. -",136,3 +",147,3 "When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/","Metaculus","[]","On December 8th 2020, Starship SN8 was the first SpaceX Starship prototype to fly to a height of at least 1 km (12.5 km to be specific). SpaceX intends to one day use Starship to bring humans to Mars. When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be? This question resolves to the time of the next Starship flight after the December SN8 flight. The criteria for ""flight"" are the same as in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4622/how-many-more-starship-prototypes-will-be-destroyed-before-one-flies/), notably, the Starship must reach a height of at least 1 km intact for resolution, and what counts as a Starship is outlined in [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/). @@ -9888,7 +9908,7 @@ This question has [a sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will- When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be? This question resolves to the time of the third Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. The criteria for ""flight"" are the same as in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4622/how-many-more-starship-prototypes-will-be-destroyed-before-one-flies/), notably, the Starship must reach a height of at least 1 km intact for resolution, and what counts as a Starship is outlined in [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/). This question has [a sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339), asking about the 2nd Starship flight. -",506,3 +",570,3 "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/","Metaculus","[]","SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km. When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? This question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve @@ -9897,7 +9917,7 @@ A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based ---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) ---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. ---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. -",67,3 +",83,3 "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/","Metaculus","[]","[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query). The current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79. What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? @@ -9906,8 +9926,8 @@ If the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be The price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons. If that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous. If a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous. -",116,3 -"Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK. +",119,3 +"Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK. It was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)). It was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)). Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? @@ -9916,7 +9936,7 @@ This question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are mov This question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs. Note that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery. Note that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. -",55,3 +",64,3 "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances: --- when requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)), @@ -9936,7 +9956,7 @@ Related questions ---[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) ---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) If positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question. -",53,3 +",54,3 "When will zettascale computing be achieved?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6353/zettascale-computing-when/","Metaculus","[]","The first petascale supercomputer--that is, a computer capable of performing 10^15 floating-point operations per second, or one petaFLOP--[came online in 2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_performance_by_orders_of_magnitude). The first exascale computers (10^18 operations) are expected [later this year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/) and were [originally expected by Metaculus late last year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/). The first zettascale computers, which can perform 10^21 operations per second, are not yet on the horizon. @@ -9944,15 +9964,15 @@ When will zettascale computing be achieved? Resolves when the [Top500 list](https://top500.org/lists/top500/) (or other credible source, Wikipedia included, if Top500 isn't around) lists a computer capable of one zettaFLOP or higher Rmax (or broadly equivalent performance measure if Rmax is no longer used) performance. Historical Top500 data available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit#gid=660616297). Distributed computing projects like Folding@home do not suffice for positive resolution. -",16,3 +",18,3 "Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit key size. The key size of 256 bits appears to render a brute-force search of the keyspace infeasible on foreseeable classical and quantum computers--the latter still must search an effective keyspace of 128 bits (see Grover's algorithm). The best publicly known attack on AES-256 requires the search of a keyspace slightly greater than 254 bits, which is infeasible. This keyspace is so large that a brute force search would be energy-constrained on a solar-system scale even with unlimited computing power at the physical limits of efficiency. There is some consideration that mathematical and / or cryptoanalytic advances may enable new attacks on AES-256 that could make key recovery computationally feasible. Public, and presumably private, cryptanalysis of AES-256 is ongoing so it is plausible that by some means a practical break could become public knowledge by 2040. Advances in AI before the resolution date may plausibly speed up the rate of relevant mathematical and crytoanalytic discoveries. Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040? Anything that is not a computationally feasible break of the algorithm itself will not resolve positive. For example, any kind of dictionary attack, including AI-generated dictionaries, does not resolve positive. Side-channel attacks do not resolve positive. Any other attacks on implementations of AES-256, but not the specification for the AES-256 algorithm itself, do not resolve positive. Non-cryptographic means of key recovery, such as interrogation, brain scan, theft or espionage do not resolve positive. This question resolves positive if before 12:01 AM GMT on January 1 2040 a credible, practically demonstrated* means of determining a AES-256 secret key without any special knowledge except the given ciphertext is made known to the public. Correspondingly, attacks that require a plaintext or more than one ciphertext for a given key do not resolve positive. *""Practically demonstrated"" means that a successful attack against AES-256 was actually carried out. -",61,3 -"Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms. +",64,3 +"Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms. Political support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process. Adding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin. In view of the above, this question asks: @@ -9963,7 +9983,7 @@ This question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at It resolves negative if he is not president at that time. Cases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date. In Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. -",40,3 +",43,3 "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications. Each year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020. How many emoji related court cases in 2021? @@ -9975,7 +9995,7 @@ When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20? ---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. ---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). ---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. -",53,3 +",54,3 "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","previous Metaculus questions: --- [Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) @@ -9985,15 +10005,15 @@ The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_p The conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic for the prime counting function . It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations. Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100? This question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory. -",51,3 -"Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. +",52,3 +"Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. The office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. The UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" with the large majority being listed as ""remote"". Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021? This question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. In the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously. If a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously. -",148,3 +",152,3 "When will the UK hold its next general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/","Metaculus","[]","--- The UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election. --- @@ -10012,14 +10032,14 @@ Historically, it was quite normal for parliaments not to go to term. Some PMs we Governments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the FTPA, been governments expecting to lose. Prime ministers delayed elections in the hope that the political temper would move in their favour. Major won a shock victory in 1992 in a vote almost 5 years after the 1987 election. He lost, five years later, in 1997. Gordon Brown held on to reach the fifth year in 2010. When will the UK hold its next general election? This question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself. -",48,3 +",50,3 "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date. The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30) Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024? This will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end. It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government. -",30,3 +",31,3 "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [""Will any festivals happen this summer?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone: In the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to. @@ -10034,7 +10054,7 @@ Shambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian This question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations. In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats? This will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021 -",121,3 +",129,3 "When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/date-song-first-streamed-4b-times-on-spotify/","Metaculus","[]","[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists. Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers. @@ -10058,7 +10078,7 @@ If that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then thi When will China become a democracy? This question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published. This question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published. -",33,3 +",35,3 "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","previous Metaculus questions: ---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) The [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents. @@ -10069,7 +10089,7 @@ To date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaste As INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity. Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030? This question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council. -",133,3 +",135,3 "Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6379/will-gamestop-gme-reach-42069-by-eoy/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of January 2021, the stock price of GameStop (GME) is seeing the sharpest rise in its history. The Reddit user [/u/deepfuckingvalue](https://www.reddit.com/user/DeepFuckingValue/) active on [r/wallstreetbets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/) seems to have predicted the rise of this stock as early as 2 years ago. Now r/wallstreetbets is very bullish on GME and they predict a [$420.69 price](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l3mpmw/disgraceful_false_media_narrative_about_gme/). r/wallstreetbets, and the GME rise in general, has gotten a lot of media attention. This atypical situation, in which r/wallstreetbets seems to play a sort of role (it's still unclear how influential they really are) has also happened recently with the relatively sudden rise of other stocks such as TSLA, PLTR, and NIO. @@ -10081,8 +10101,8 @@ On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opi Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022? This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source. If the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. -",92,3 -"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. +",93,3 +"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015. Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? @@ -10091,7 +10111,7 @@ Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, t ---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. ---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. ---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. -",61,3 +",62,3 "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -10134,7 +10154,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== The resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March -",52,3 +",57,3 "What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -10151,7 +10171,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== The resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April -",45,3 +",50,3 "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -10168,7 +10188,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. -",53,3 +",57,3 "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -10201,7 +10221,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously. -",48,3 +",49,3 "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -10233,7 +10253,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== Resolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well. -",39,3 +",41,3 "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -10267,7 +10287,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. -",49,3 +",56,3 "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -10285,7 +10305,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. -",43,3 +",51,3 "For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -10323,7 +10343,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== Resolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released. -",34,3 +",36,3 "When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6411/weride-autonomous-vehicle-testing-in-ca/","Metaculus","[]","Background ========== @@ -10351,7 +10371,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== Resolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself. -",17,3 +",20,3 "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/","Metaculus","[]","Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions. Furthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption. Finally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020. @@ -10366,8 +10386,8 @@ Australia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order t Resolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions). If it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria). Edit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. -",65,3 -"Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. +",72,3 +"Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. In November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm) Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time. Background reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting: @@ -10384,7 +10404,7 @@ This question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1 Exactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. The data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE) Normal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. -",37,3 +",53,3 "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021. Greene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [""Frazzledrip""](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html). Due to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so. @@ -10392,7 +10412,7 @@ Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022 This question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022. This question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022. This question resolves negatively otherwise. -",211,3 +",213,3 "Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials). Will substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024? This resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date. @@ -10403,7 +10423,7 @@ Will anyone make over $1M/year as a solo Substack author before 2024 This resolves positively if credible reports say that an individual author is earning over $1M/year from Substack subscribers. They are allowed to have editors and still count as a solo author. ",89,3 -"Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly. +"Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly. Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? This question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date: ---Donald Trump @@ -10414,7 +10434,7 @@ This question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Subst ---Tiffany Trump ---Barron Trump ---Jared Kushner -",77,3 +",79,3 "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -10427,20 +10447,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions. -",21,3 -"Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 be vaccinated again due to a mutation?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6433/us-cdc-recommends-revaccination-by-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London. -The spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility: -The new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective. -Over time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary. -Peacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.” -If there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is. -Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus? -This question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2. ----The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. ----The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. ----Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. ----If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. -",53,3 +",22,3 "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign. Tensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides. Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? @@ -10454,13 +10461,13 @@ The figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI esti Answers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars. What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI? Resolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously. -",29,3 +",31,3 "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. Of the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman. By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? Resolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15. If there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. -",141,3 +",142,3 "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6440/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3. @@ -10469,8 +10476,8 @@ What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022- This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",59,3 -"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years. +",60,3 +"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years. There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however: ---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. ---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held ""within one year before the places are to become vacant."" @@ -10479,18 +10486,18 @@ The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Pa Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement. Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. -",71,3 -"Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))? +",80,3 +"Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))? Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022? The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party. -",157,3 +",168,3 "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/","Metaculus","[]","According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question. As of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021. On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k? [https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics) Resolves to the earliest date on which ""Currently Hospitalized"" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.). If the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source. -",140,3 +",164,3 "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries. In its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. On December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. @@ -10499,12 +10506,12 @@ The [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/datase Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025? This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/). The label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UK’s [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-être animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark. -",12,3 -"Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. +",13,3 +"Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure. Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024? This will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/). -",17,3 +",20,3 "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/","Metaculus","[]","See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user. Germany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs. French Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs. @@ -10517,7 +10524,7 @@ This resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at lea 2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. Estimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO. In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously. -",13,3 +",15,3 "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a ""[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)"". As of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland. France has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive). @@ -10537,7 +10544,7 @@ The deal has been denounced by European beef [farmers](https://www.euractiv.com/ Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021? Resolves positive if by the end of 31 December 2021, European Parliament or representatives of any relevant government agency involved in negotiations on behalf of an EU participating country (any one of 27 countries) makes an announcement that the European Union–Mercosur ratification has been rejected, without a contradicting claim by a representative in the following 24 hours. ",33,3 -"Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles). +"Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles). In Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and ""at the jockey's discretion"" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html). A jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for ""overuse of the whip"" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html). The Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy ""would not be surprised"" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years. @@ -10549,14 +10556,14 @@ A rule that allows for the use of the whip only ""in the case of an emergency"" This question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. If no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. Changes to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the ""Melbourne Cup"", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. -",20,3 -"Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021. +",23,3 +"Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021. U.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days. U.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline. The Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward. Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01? The question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence). -",96,3 +",110,3 "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/","Metaculus","[]","The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). Between 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). In Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0). @@ -10572,7 +10579,7 @@ At the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will b If party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. -- Only state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. -",17,3 +",19,3 "When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6471/when-will-a-starship-successfully-land/","Metaculus","[]","There have been two 10+ km testflights of prototypes of SpaceX's reusable Starship upper stage, meant to verify the rocket's landing manuever, one on December 8th 2020, the other on February 2nd 2021. Both flights have ended in Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly (RUD) upon contact with the ground. When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land? This question resolves to the time of the first Starship flight that both goes above 5 km, and successfully lands in one piece, in a manner representative of how the Starship is meant to land. The criteria for ""flight"" are the same as in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4622/how-many-more-starship-prototypes-will-be-destroyed-before-one-flies/), and what counts as a Starship is outlined in [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/), namely: @@ -10586,20 +10593,20 @@ The vehicle should be intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned t The vehicle must [represent part of an intended full launch system that has] a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. --- The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. -",76,3 +",93,3 "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. The [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is ""in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun."" The website further states that the project team ""expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021."" Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? The question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. -",20,3 +",22,3 "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes. The [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021. Biden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden. Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? This question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority. -",108,3 -"Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6479/adversarial-use-of-consumer-genomics-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc. +",115,3 +"Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6479/adversarial-use-of-consumer-genomics-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc. [Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system. Note: I am using ""DNA data"", ""genomics data"", ""genetic data"" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect. Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030? @@ -10625,12 +10632,12 @@ The following examples do count as positive resolutions: Evidence of discrimination or insurance rates being set from individual-level genomics without explicit customer authorization (""would you like to submit your DNA profile to Anthem?""), even if legal and authorized under a vague terms of service --- An outside actor gaining access to genomics data, learning about family infidelities, and publishing this broadly. -",32,3 +",34,3 "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/","Metaculus","[]","The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2). On 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [""as early as April""](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [""talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.""](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant). When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? This question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change. -",104,3 +",113,3 "What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6486/bitcoin-dominance-in-2025/","Metaculus","[]","related questions on Metaculus: --- [When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/) @@ -10640,28 +10647,28 @@ Cryptocurrencies' prices are dictated both by speculation and utility. Bitcoin's Bitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypto sector as a whole is driven by its investment potential as currencies as opposed to its platform potential as blockchains. What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? This question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change. -",22,3 +",25,3 "When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6494/when-will-the-r-hypothesis-be-resolved/","Metaculus","[]","The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . When will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved or disproved? This question will resolve as the date when the Clay Mathematics Institute announces that the Hypothesis has been proved or disproved according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), or when it is shown to be independent of the standard ZFC axioms. In case the Clay Mathematics Institute is discontinued or no longer awards prizes for resolved Millennium Prize Problems, it resolves when admins decide that there is a consensus amongst relevant leading pure mathematicians about the Hypothesis being resolved. -",62,3 +",65,3 "When will Russia become a democracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/when-will-russia-become-a-democracy/","Metaculus","[]","Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index. When will Russia become a democracy? This question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report. The resolution date is the date the report is published. The question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such. If Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. -",14,3 +",17,3 "When will the mammoth be revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/","Metaculus","[]","In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago. When will the mammoth be revived? This question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday. The mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively. -",23,3 +",46,3 "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US. When will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19? This question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home). -",93,3 +",97,3 "Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6502/javascripts-dominance-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Each year since 2011, the programming Q&A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it. However, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks: Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey? @@ -10671,8 +10678,8 @@ This question resolves positively if: 3--In the view of Metaculus admins resolving this question, JavaScript has the highest percentage of any programming language in the relevant 'most common'/'most popular' list, among all survey respondents. If another programming language is instead the 'most commonly used', this question resolves negatively. If Stack Overflow does not release the results of a 2030 Annual Developer Survey for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. If no 'commonly used programming languages' question is included, this question also resolves ambiguously. If the organization currently known as Stack Overflow changes name or structure, continuity will be judged by Metaculus admins. Stack Overflow Annual Developer surveys do not need to be conducted in each consecutive year for the purposes of this question's resolution --- a cessation of all surveys from 2021 to 2029 is irrelevant --- but results of a 2030 survey must be publicly reported. -",55,3 -"Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions. +",56,3 +"Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions. The legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as ""[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)"", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to ""hard living conditions or difficult personal situations"". Since then, abortion has been legal under three conditions: ---danger to the life or health of the mother @@ -10686,13 +10693,13 @@ Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2 If any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive. Otherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative. Otherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous. -",52,3 +",76,3 "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources? Gravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, ""approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)"". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated. Will the GWB be detected by 2075? Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources? This resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma. -",10,3 +",11,3 "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market. Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026? After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))? @@ -10701,13 +10708,13 @@ After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 20 2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. 3--All prices are in USD. 4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. -",164,3 -"Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From wikipedia ""the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control."" +",168,3 +"Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From wikipedia ""the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control."" [Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps) is an introductory video. And see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) for a definition of AGI arrival. Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence? The question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus. Note this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative. -",26,3 +",30,3 "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/","Metaculus","[]","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). @@ -10715,14 +10722,14 @@ What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 s This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -",62,3 +",64,3 "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/). Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. [fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] -",39,3 +",41,3 "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/","Metaculus","[]","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? @@ -10730,7 +10737,7 @@ This question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = Data Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -",64,3 +",65,3 "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). In 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run. @@ -10744,14 +10751,14 @@ If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1 When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below. In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period. The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. -",50,3 +",54,3 "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","[]","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023? This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/). GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. -",51,3 +",52,3 "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6520/sota-wikitext-103-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is @@ -10761,10 +10768,10 @@ What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",46,3 +",47,3 "What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6524/btc-hash-rate-november-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Bitcoin's network relies on the process of blockchain mining, which involves finding blocks on the network through performing computations that result in the addition of transaction records to Bitcoin's public ledger of past transactions. The network's hash rate is the total of the speed at which all mining machines operate. As of writing this question, Bitcoin's network hash rate is around 165M tera hashes per second. What will Bitcoin's network hash rate per second be (in Millions of tera hashes per second) as per the performance rates posted by [blockchain.com](https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=2years) on 17 November 2022? -",32,3 +",35,3 "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). [Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data. @@ -10779,7 +10786,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 ---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 ---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 -",38,3 +",41,3 "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input. @@ -10794,7 +10801,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 ---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 ---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 -",48,3 +",51,3 "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf). @@ -10809,7 +10816,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 ---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 ---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 -",45,3 +",48,3 "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6528/few-shot-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). Few-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf). @@ -10823,7 +10830,7 @@ The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=& ---203 for the calendar year 2017 ---350 for the calendar year 2018 ---700 for the calendar year 2019 -",51,3 +",52,3 "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6529/e-prints-ai-safety-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/). @@ -10838,12 +10845,12 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---127 for the calendar year 2018 ---275 for the calendar year 2019 ---420 in the calendar year 2020 -",43,3 +",48,3 "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/","Metaculus","[]","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. The 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys). When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available? This resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as "">"". -",72,3 +",88,3 "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14? Index @@ -10862,7 +10869,7 @@ If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-construct Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100. For the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. -",50,3 +",55,3 "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/","Metaculus","[]","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. The index is constructed as follows: --- @@ -10881,7 +10888,7 @@ A benchmark will be removed from the index if: If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. -",56,3 +",58,3 "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/","Metaculus","[]","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): @@ -10891,25 +10898,25 @@ How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions cha This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.* For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase). If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT. -",53,3 +",58,3 "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus","[]","Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. -",51,3 +",57,3 "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. -",49,3 +",52,3 "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD). Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning. What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD. Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). -",35,3 +",38,3 "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. @@ -10918,7 +10925,7 @@ What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to U This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted ""Value Added"" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind). in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). -",31,3 +",35,3 "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-), Although heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty. From [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/), @@ -10967,7 +10974,7 @@ For the purposes of this question, ""minimum wage"" refers to the federal minimu If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. If the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous. For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually. -",16,3 +",21,3 "Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6548/jj-vaccine-issued-eua-before-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The single-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04505722) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE, has enrolled [45,000 adult participants](https://www.jnj.com/innovation/questions-about-johnson-johnson-investigational-covid-19-vaccine) in [multiple countries](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-initiates-pivotal-global-phase-3-clinical-trial-of-janssens-covid-19-vaccine-candidate). On 29 January, Johnson & Johnson [reported interim results](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial) from the ENSEMBLE trial, which includes 72% efficacy in the US and 66% overall efficacy against moderate to severe COVID-19. On 4 February, Johnson & Johnson [announced](https://www.janssen.com/johnson-johnson-announces-submission-application-us-fda-emergency-use-authorization-its) that it had submitted an application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requesting [Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained). Later on 4 February, the FDA [scheduled a meeting](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-announces-advisory-committee-meeting-discuss-janssen-biotech-incs?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery) of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) for 26 February 2021. The purpose of the VRBPAC meeting is to have a [""public discussion ... about the data submitted in support of safety and effectiveness of Janssen Biotech Inc.’s COVID-19 vaccine ... help ensure that the public has a clear understanding of the scientific data and information that FDA will evaluate in order to make a decision about whether to authorize this vaccine.""](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-announces-advisory-committee-meeting-discuss-janssen-biotech-incs?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery) @@ -10982,25 +10989,25 @@ If no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolv ---Potential ""major media outlets"" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. ---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. ---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. -",39,3 -"Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6551/us-vaccination-rate-exceeds-3m-daily-doses/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question. +",40,3 +"Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6551/us-vaccination-rate-exceeds-3m-daily-doses/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question. Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021? Resolves to ""yes"" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to ""no"" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021. -",26,3 +",48,3 "When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/","Metaculus","[]","With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving ""herd immunity"" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.) It is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains. In this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). When (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%? This will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.) If data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. -",45,3 +",48,3 "When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6553/100m-americans-vaccinated-with-1-doses/","Metaculus","[]","As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" in the US as 34.7M. On what date will this number reach 100M? When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine? The [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). Resolves to the first date on which the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" at the above link is above 100M. If the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M. -",69,3 +",90,3 "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/","Metaculus","[]","The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. Indefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution. President Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. @@ -11011,14 +11018,14 @@ When asked by a reporter during a press briefing on Friday if the prison would b When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp? This question resolves as the date that credible reports indicate that the detention camp has been permanently closed by the U.S. government. Closures that are intended to be temporary, e.g. for renovation, construction work, due to natural disasters, or for other reasons, do not count. -",17,3 +",22,3 "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/","Metaculus","[]","Belarus held a presidential election on August 9th 2020. While the official results showed Alexander Lukashenko winning with over 80% of the vote, international observers considered the election to be neither free nor fair. A [large-scale protest movement emerged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests) and the authorities responded violently with over 1,000 testimonies of torture victims now documented. Opposition figure Valery Tsepkalo [predicted that the Lukashenko regime 'could fall in two weeks'](https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-alexander-lukashenkos-regime-could-fall-in-two-weeks-presidential-hopeful-predicts-12051939) back in August 2020 (shortly after the election). As of the writing of this question, well over 5 months after his comments, Lukashenko appears to be in full control and a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/) asking whether he would remain in power until January 31st 2021 has resolved positively. However, Lukashenko has promised constitutional changes, which he says will be implemented [after a referendum in early 2022](https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashenko-hints-at-leaving-but-not-today/a-56537777). Lukashenko has [previously promised to step down after a new constitution is adopted](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lukashenko-belarus-election-b1762811.html). The opposition generally considers this an empty promise. When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus? This question will be resolved to the earliest date on which there is credible media reporting that Lukashenko has ceased to hold the office of president. In the case where Lukashenko claims to be president in addition to at least one other person, the question will resolve only if Lukashenko no longer holds the ""means of power"" (broadly, controls the military and police). If Alexander Lukashenko does not leave power before the end of 2039, this question resolves as "">"". -",24,3 +",26,3 "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation. [A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter) The case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years. @@ -11027,15 +11034,15 @@ As of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infec Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021? This question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection. Note that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question. -",71,3 -"Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created. +",75,3 +"Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created. Rather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws. However, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described. Alcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013) Will a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100? This question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds. This demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021. -",20,3 +",25,3 "By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6559/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment? @@ -11048,7 +11055,7 @@ If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1 When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below. In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period. The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. -",47,3 +",51,3 "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6560/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-30/","Metaculus","[]","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). @@ -11056,12 +11063,12 @@ What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 s This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -",41,3 +",43,3 "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6562/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-april-1st-us/","Metaculus","[]","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average. What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States? This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. -",103,3 +",129,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf). The PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). @@ -11069,7 +11076,7 @@ An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode]( What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -",44,3 +",48,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf). [Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). @@ -11077,7 +11084,7 @@ An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode]( What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -",54,3 +",56,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92. @@ -11086,7 +11093,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on m This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",57,3 +",60,3 "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3. An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models. @@ -11094,7 +11101,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023- This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",34,3 +",37,3 "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. @@ -11103,7 +11110,7 @@ This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [th Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify. In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",54,3 +",62,3 "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. [WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL). @@ -11111,7 +11118,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",42,3 +",45,3 "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8. @@ -11119,7 +11126,7 @@ An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode]( What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -",50,3 +",53,3 "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html) An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models. @@ -11128,7 +11135,7 @@ This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)). In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",60,3 +",65,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/","Metaculus","[]","Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92. @@ -11137,7 +11144,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on m This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",44,3 +",46,3 "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/","Metaculus","[]","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): @@ -11147,19 +11154,19 @@ How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions cha This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation* For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase). If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT. -",35,3 +",42,3 "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030? This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/). GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. -",42,3 +",44,3 "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/","Metaculus","[]","One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. In the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030? This question resolves as the ""Number of jobs"" for the profession ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT. -",46,3 +",56,3 "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). Multimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf). @@ -11174,7 +11181,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---71 for the calendar year 2018 ---91 for the calendar year 2019 ---181 for the calendar year 2020 -",48,3 +",50,3 "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/","Metaculus","[]","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. @@ -11182,14 +11189,14 @@ Brynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued tha What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01? This resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted. As of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%. -",39,3 +",40,3 "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr. Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning. What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD? This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD. Prices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). -",33,3 +",37,3 "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. @@ -11198,7 +11205,7 @@ What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to U This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted ""Value Added"" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind). in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). -",36,3 +",38,3 "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/). @@ -11213,7 +11220,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---127 for the calendar year 2018 ---275 for the calendar year 2019 ---420 in the calendar year 202 -",43,3 +",45,3 "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/","Metaculus","[]","[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate: the short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease. This question asks: @@ -11221,8 +11228,8 @@ What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms a This question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states: The range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain. Patients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom -",36,3 -"Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6591/us-to-implement-tabarrok-vaccine-ideas/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On Feb 12, Alex Tabarrok [wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/12/first-doses-vaccine-rules-fda/) advocating for several policies that would speed up vaccinations. +",45,3 +"Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6591/us-to-implement-tabarrok-vaccine-ideas/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On Feb 12, Alex Tabarrok [wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/12/first-doses-vaccine-rules-fda/) advocating for several policies that would speed up vaccinations. A “first doses first” approach — that is, prioritizing first doses by delaying the second shot from three to four weeks (the period studied in clinical trials) to 12 weeks — would allow more people to get vaccinated quickly, for example. “Fractional” dosing, such as by giving half-doses, would instantly increase the vaccine supply and has been used successfully in previous epidemics. Giving the Americans who have already been infected (up to 100 million people) only one shot would help doses go further. @@ -11237,7 +11244,7 @@ Half dosing of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines Delaying the second dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines --- Giving only one shot to those who have previously recovered from Covid-19 -",108,3 +",161,3 "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/","Metaculus","[]","Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that: The People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants. While the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution. @@ -11251,18 +11258,22 @@ The constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the st The resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as >. For the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist. The first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question. -",19,3 +",24,3 "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/","Metaculus","[]","This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound. Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939. This question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)? The question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous. +",21,3 +"Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment. +Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? +A report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product. ",19,3 "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/","Metaculus","[]","In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000). This question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025? Tesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025. If Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question. Will count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels. -",48,3 +",53,3 "Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6608/black-holes-as-dark-matter/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A [primordial black hole](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Primordial_black_hole) (PBH) is a hypothetical type of black hole that formed soon after the Big Bang...Since primordial black holes did not form from stellar gravitational collapse, their masses can be far below stellar mass. As of this writing, no direct observational evidence of PBHs exists. @@ -11279,13 +11290,13 @@ The scientific consensus on the matter will be determined following the protocol The question posed to the experts will be ""In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that primordial black holes constitute at least 50% of dark matter? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response."" The sample of experts will be determined using the arXiv categories ""Astrophysics of Galaxies"", ""Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics"", and ""General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology"". If the arXiv no longer exists or the volume and/or quality of papers posted have decreased substantially (as judged by Metaculus mods) by resolution date, the sample of experts will be chosen following a similar procedure with details to be determined at the discretion the Metaculus mods. -",25,3 +",26,3 "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/","Metaculus","[]","[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): The blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911. Interesting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment) What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01? The question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval. -",13,3 +",18,3 "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/). A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics), Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies. @@ -11301,8 +11312,8 @@ The patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or leg Alcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report. If Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. -",28,3 -"Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/). +",29,3 +"Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/). A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics), Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies. You can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy. @@ -11317,18 +11328,18 @@ The patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their de The Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report. If the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. -",15,3 +",21,3 "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related question on Metaculus: ---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) Starlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no. Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030? This will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively. -",29,3 +",31,3 "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/","Metaculus","[]","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average. What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States? This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. -",50,3 +",63,3 "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/","Metaculus","[]","In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers. However, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions: ---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). @@ -11359,7 +11370,7 @@ For the purposes of this question, ""minimum wage"" refers to the federal minimu If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. If the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous. For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually. -",16,3 +",21,3 "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/","Metaculus","[]","In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers. However, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions: ---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). @@ -11390,18 +11401,28 @@ For the purposes of this question, ""minimum wage"" refers to the federal minimu If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. If the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous. For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually. -",15,3 +",21,3 +"In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/","Metaculus","[]","Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020. +[BBC article 2021-02-19: ""Where does the government borrow billions from?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing. +In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP? +This question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled ""2025 DEC"" of the monthly table. +",27,3 "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/","Metaculus","[]","[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries. What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100? This question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly. -",15,3 -"Will we find life on Mars by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars), +",18,3 +"How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/","Metaculus","[]","The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will ""attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window"". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars). +How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt? +The question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds. +The preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf). +",23,3 +"Will we find life on Mars by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars), The possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms. Life on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa. If life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, ""scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation."" Will we find life on Mars by 2050? This question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively. -",49,3 +",59,3 "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/","Metaculus","[]","Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract, According to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them. Scott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. @@ -11409,83 +11430,83 @@ This question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint o In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens? This question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter ""grabby aliens"", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology. ETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as "">10^16"". -",115,3 +",118,3 "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6635/bidens-approval-to-exceed-disapproval-rating/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question). Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction. On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating? This question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays. -",105,3 +",116,3 "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question). Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction. On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%? This question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays. -",74,3 -"Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. +",83,3 +"Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century. Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century? This question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing). -",55,3 +",62,3 "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/","Metaculus","[]","In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%. What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be? This question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE). -",58,3 +",65,3 "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship. Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship? This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously. -",53,3 +",61,3 "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.050000000000000044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President. Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01? This question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01. This question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event. -",124,3 +",127,3 "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021. Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021? For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court. -",61,3 +",63,3 "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States. Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021? This resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021. -",57,3 +",61,3 "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021. Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021? This question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. -",23,3 -"Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. +",26,3 +"Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident). Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021? This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. -",19,3 +",36,3 "What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident). What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data? This question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing). -",61,3 +",72,3 "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident). Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021? This question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021. -",61,3 +",64,3 "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.” Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident). Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021? This question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources. -",36,3 +",39,3 "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS) There is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies. BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026? After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value. -",46,3 +",50,3 "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/","Metaculus","[]","Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx). What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? What will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous. -",11,3 -"Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018. +",32,3 +"Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018. Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021? The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true: ---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. @@ -11494,8 +11515,8 @@ The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true: (The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07) The market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days. The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. -",80,3 -"Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6660/street-by-street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street. +",100,3 +"Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6660/street-by-street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street. The paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf). Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024 An official government announcement is sufficient e.g. statement in parliament or press release on [gov.uk](http://gov.uk) @@ -11505,7 +11526,7 @@ The zoning laws to be voted on must include at least the following options: Number of floors --- Plot use -",41,3 +",49,3 "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence. According to its website: MIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision. @@ -11517,7 +11538,7 @@ For the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical w Research is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. If MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. In case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be ""developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields"" will not apply. -",55,3 +",56,3 "Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6666/maximum-price-of-bitcoin-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021? Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021? We will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price. @@ -11525,20 +11546,93 @@ If one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will repl If it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. If there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. The maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. -",84,3 +",107,3 "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01? Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -",30,3 +",42,3 "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01? Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -",17,3 +",29,3 "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01? Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -",24,3 +",38,3 "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01? Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -",24,3 \ No newline at end of file +",42,3 +"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/","Metaculus","[]","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). +Data sources: +---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) +---[Vaccine Distribution ""Process""](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) +---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) +What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30? +This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses."" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET. +In the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled ""Number of people receiving 1 or more doses"", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. +",27,3 +"Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? +New York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal). +As of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations. +Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? +This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively. +In cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) +",167,3 +"When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/","Metaculus","[]","As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under ""Social Networking"" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. +(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.) +When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store? +The ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord. +",33,3 +"Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100. +The most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C. +Initial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (""land-use changes"" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation). +Kelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021. +Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? +This question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change). +If there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. +",18,3 +"Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [""on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S. +President Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. +Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021? +This will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. +Specifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: +1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March) +2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March) +3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March) +So as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. +Any other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals. +If the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting. +",28,3 +"Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6710/us-school-staff-to-get-1st-dose-by-31-march/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [""every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program. +Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March? +This will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. +If there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively. +",26,3 +"What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6717/-b117-in-the-us-21-27-march/","Metaculus","[]","Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. +B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. The B.1.1.7 variant is the most frequent variant sequenced in the US. As of 1 March, the [CDC has reported](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) 2,506 cases of B.1.1.7 compared to 65 cases of B.1.351 and 10 cases of P.1. One or more cases of B.1.1.7 have been reported in 46 jurisdictions. +In response to an increased incidence of sequenced viral samples that are identified as B.1.1.7, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, an increased need for vaccination, and an increased rate of genomic sequencing. +What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)? +This question will resolve as the 7 day rolling average of % sequences that are B.1.1.7 in the U.S. on 27 March 2021 (i.e. the average percentage between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021) at the following website: [https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country](https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country). This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 6 April 2021. +",11,3 +"In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/","Metaculus","[]","Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines. +[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. +The U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html). +In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced? +This question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). +If the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022. +",11,3 +"How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/","Metaculus","[]","Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants. +There is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines. +Data sources and more information: +---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) +---[Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html) +---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) +---[Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variants from neutralization by convalescent plasma](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) +---[Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) +---[Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) +---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) +---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) +How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April? +This question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday). +",13,3 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/metaculus-questions.json b/data/metaculus-questions.json index 33a1d47..d647fd4 100644 --- a/data/metaculus-questions.json +++ b/data/metaculus-questions.json @@ -6,17 +6,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.22999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.\nThe question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether \"The Universe\" will end. \nEven posing this question is not very straightforward, as \"The Universe\" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.\nWhen we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the \"sky\" at some \"distance.\" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [\"observiball\"](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [\"lightcone,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.\nTurning this around to look into the future, we can consider the \"Affectiball,\" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.\nWe can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [\"heat death\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that \"interesting things\" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:\nIs the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?\nIf so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)\n", - "numforecasts": 560, + "numforecasts": 567, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -26,17 +26,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 5053, + "numforecasts": 5071, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -46,17 +46,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. \nWho will win? \nResolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.\n", - "numforecasts": 828, + "numforecasts": 838, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -85,7 +85,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the quest for \"strong\" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is \"brain emulation,\" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. \nIn an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such \"Ems\" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)\nTo gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of \"Ems\" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:\nWill the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains? \nResolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.\n(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)\n", - "numforecasts": 420, + "numforecasts": 421, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -105,7 +105,7 @@ } ], "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", - "numforecasts": 860, + "numforecasts": 864, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -125,7 +125,7 @@ } ], "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n", - "numforecasts": 960, + "numforecasts": 964, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -182,17 +182,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question.\nThe basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html).)\nThe ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservation-prize-be-awarded-by-the-brain-preservation-foundation/) regarding the \"large brain preservation prize\" discusses some of the advances. Many questions remain however, including: Is it even in principle possible to reconstruct an individual human mind out of a frozen brain? If so, how much accuracy in preservation is necessary? Do current techniques have the requisite accuracy? How advanced will the reconstruction technology be, and when would/might that exist? etc., etc.\nLet's assume that an individual as of the reading of the question signs up with one of the top three (by number of currently preserved individuals). \nWhat is the probability that the individual will \"wake up\" in essentially the same or better form than they died? \nWe'll consider success if the revived individual has full mental faculties, an essentially complete set of memories of their former life, and a personality that is at least difficult for them or others to discern from the original. We'll assume for these purposes that the individual's last heartbeat (at least for some time) occurs in a hospital or similar setting where the body can be immediately cooled and moved (if not there already) to a facility for cryonic preservation, and that the individual dies with a relatively healthy brain intact.\nNote: like a few other Metaculus questions, we don't expect this to actually resolve. Rather it is a \"headline\" question that could fold in the results of others. Suggestions for shorter-term, resolvable questions that would bear upon the probabilities of this one are invited in the comments below.\n", - "numforecasts": 546, + "numforecasts": 552, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -292,7 +292,7 @@ } ], "description": "Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.\nAccording to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.\nMore recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions \"as well as the average 11th-grade American student.\" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS \"uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015.\" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.\nThis is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:\nBy end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? \nResolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.\n", - "numforecasts": 686, + "numforecasts": 693, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -332,7 +332,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n", - "numforecasts": 606, + "numforecasts": 651, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -352,7 +352,7 @@ } ], "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? \nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 696, + "numforecasts": 697, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -420,17 +420,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. \nUp-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/)\nFor the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. \nThe highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. \nBut the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain.\nThis uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensive, and so far has not proven commercially valuable. On the other hand a successful colonization effort could result in many thousands of people off world. \nBecause of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the population be higher than the current maximum?\nWill the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13? \nIf clarification is needed of what counts as \"human\", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). \"Off of planet Earth\" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records.\n", - "numforecasts": 472, + "numforecasts": 478, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -579,7 +579,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.\nWe are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.\nIt is asked:\nBy 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? \n", - "numforecasts": 430, + "numforecasts": 433, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -588,7 +588,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.\nInternational bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.\nOthers speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).\nDespite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.\nWhat do you think? When will we cross the threshold? \nFor a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. \n(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)\n", - "numforecasts": 363, + "numforecasts": 365, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -628,7 +628,7 @@ } ], "description": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\nCoins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\nAlthough it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?\n", - "numforecasts": 371, + "numforecasts": 372, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -648,7 +648,7 @@ } ], "description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\nThe [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. \nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): \nA generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):\nIt's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.\nCan we get there before the 2030s? \nResolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 448, + "numforecasts": 453, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -687,17 +687,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 1091, + "numforecasts": 1101, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -717,7 +717,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n", - "numforecasts": 394, + "numforecasts": 395, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -887,17 +887,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.\n[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):\nAccording to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.\nThe question is: can we do this?\nKurzgesagt (a.k.a. \"in a nutshell\") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)\nHere are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:\n---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator. \n---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build. \n---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down. \n---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process. \n---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. \nWhat do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?\nQuestion resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.\n", - "numforecasts": 364, + "numforecasts": 366, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -936,17 +936,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", - "numforecasts": 1324, + "numforecasts": 1335, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -975,7 +975,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The last 115 years of humankind’s relationship with air travel has been mindboggling. On December 17, 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright lifted off in the [fields of Kitty Hawk](https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/wright-brothers/online/fly/1903/). The era of human air travel was born.\nBut skeptics abounded. Yes, we could fly. But could we fly fly? \nFor instance, one famous early doubter told reporters in 1909 that “no airship will ever fly from New York to Paris.” The name of this skeptic? [Wilbur Wright himself!](http://blog.fastforwardlabs.com/2015/08/05/a-flying-machine-from-new-york-to-paris.html)\nJust 38 years later, American pilot and legendary daredevil, Chuck Yeager, broke the manned supersonic flight barrier in USAF aircraft #46-062, a.k.a. the [Glamorous Glennis](https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/bell-x-1). \nWired Magazine offers some of the [juicy engineering details](https://www.wired.com/story/its-the-70th-anniversary-of-the-first-supersonic-flight/) of Yeager's feat:\nThe Bell X-1 had a radical new “all flying tail\" that allowed Yeager to maintain control as the air compressed ahead of his plane, drastically increasing drag. (This is still standard on supersonic military jets today.) It also has thin wings and a sharply pointed nose to help it slice through the air. As he fired the final two chambers of the rocket powered plane, Yeager finally pushed through that sound barrier, to a speed of Mach 1.06, making him the fastest man on Earth.\nCommercial planes—most famously the Concorde—soon followed suit, allowing regular folk (with scads of disposable income) to experience the magic of faster-than-sound air travel for themselves.\nBut after the Concorde [got grounded](https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/2203042/concorde-stop-flying-where-displayed/) in 2003, we haven’t seen any commercial supersonic transport (SST) attempts get off the ground.\nThat may be changing. Quickly.\n[Per Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/garystoller/2017/12/05/is-the-age-of-the-concorde-and-supersonic-flights-returning/#591635084cfb), the Denver-based Boom (in conjunction with Japan Airlines) plans to reignite SST travel:\n[it will] develop a supersonic aircraft that flies at Mach 2.2 and will cut current airline flight times in half. The Concorde flew at Mach 2.0, and today’s commercial jets fly at Mach 0.85. Boom says its jets will fly from New York to London in three hours and 15 minutes, enabling business people to leave early in the morning, make afternoon and evening meetings in England, and return home in time to tuck their kids into bed. \nBoom’s goal: [commercial SST flight by 2023](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/supersonic-air-travel-just-took-another-big-step-toward-its-ncna828431). The [company's site](https://boomsupersonic.com/airliner) describes a 55-seat aircraft and tickets in the $2500 range.\nWhat do you think? When will the next commercial flight break the sound barrier? \nResolution is at the date/time at which a supersonic flight is flown on an aircraft designed for passenger use and operated by a company intending to use it for such purpose, over a distance of more than 1000 km. The contemplated timeline runs from late-2018 through 2030.\nETA 2020-11-26: Rockets or any type of hypersonic aircraft do not count as qualifying aircrafts for the purpose of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 269, + "numforecasts": 281, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -995,7 +995,7 @@ } ], "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 582, + "numforecasts": 583, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1005,17 +1005,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n", - "numforecasts": 363, + "numforecasts": 365, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1025,17 +1025,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08999999999999997, + "probability": 0.07999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\n
  • There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
    • \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 306, + "numforecasts": 309, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1075,7 +1075,7 @@ } ], "description": "For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy.\nThe human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality.\nCurrently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders.\nBut by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. \nPer Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story:\nBy 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as now, Lagos with its current 20 million people could be home to more people than the state of California.\nThe demographers' full paper is [here](http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247816663557). \nThe International Institute for Environment and Development goes into detail about why Hoornweg and Pope are so bullish on Africa [here](https://www.iied.org/will-africa-have-worlds-largest-cities-2100).\nWhether it's Lagos that claims the crown or some other city in Africa or elsewhere, what do you think? Will some metro hit 100M people by 2100? (For the estimate we will include the general metropolitan area rather than the strict city boundaries, as done [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population#Urban_areas_(Top_100).))\n", - "numforecasts": 271, + "numforecasts": 272, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1182,7 +1182,7 @@ } ], "description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n", - "numforecasts": 280, + "numforecasts": 281, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1212,17 +1212,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The \"global\" value is the relevant one here.)\nWill this goal be realized? \nThe WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.\n", - "numforecasts": 248, + "numforecasts": 258, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1345,7 +1345,7 @@ } ], "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n
  • A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
  • A single important ‘deployment’ event
  • Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)
    • \n", - "numforecasts": 497, + "numforecasts": 498, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1385,7 +1385,7 @@ } ], "description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)\nThe question asks: \nIF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP? \nIf no award is given during this century the question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n1--61 thought P≠NP. \n2--9 thought P=NP. \n3--4 thought that it is independent. \n4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. \n5--1 said it would depend on the model. \n6--22 offered no opinion. \n", - "numforecasts": 205, + "numforecasts": 206, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1423,7 +1423,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nWill resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with > 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n", - "numforecasts": 506, + "numforecasts": 509, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1443,7 +1443,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the US, enrollment in 4-year colleges has been steadily increasing since the 1970s, [from around 17.1% to 29.9% in 2015.](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp )\nDespite this, the economist Bryan Caplan [has recently argued](https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11225.html) that this time spent in college by an increasing proportion of youth is wasteful, as the primary function of education is not to enhance students' skill but to certify their intelligence, work ethic, and conformity — in other words, to signal the qualities of a good employee.\nAs increasing numbers of students get more degrees, the harder it becomes to remain competitive in the job market without spending lots of time in education — essentially creating a prisoner's dilemma in which it is individually rational, but socially harmful to waste evermore time getting degrees. This has made some confident that educational enrolment will only increase over time, including the aforementioned economist [who has been placing bets on this.](https://www.econlib.org/education-the-betting-continues/)\nWill the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges in 2025 be more than 10% lower than in 2015?\nSince the 2015 rate is 29.9%, positive resolution is conditional on a rate 26.91% or less in 2025 [as reported by data from the National Center for Education Statistics](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp ).\n", - "numforecasts": 187, + "numforecasts": 188, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1452,7 +1452,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n", - "numforecasts": 221, + "numforecasts": 223, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1637,7 +1637,7 @@ } ], "description": "It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.\nBy 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years or less?\nThe question resolves positively the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "numforecasts": 248, + "numforecasts": 249, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1766,7 +1766,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n", - "numforecasts": 189, + "numforecasts": 190, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1776,17 +1776,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31999999999999995, + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored. \nThis finding was later found for human brains by various studies, and it contradicted the previous longstanding \"dogma\" that adult brains don't form new neurons. The current leading theory of why NG occurs in the adult HC (if it does) is that it isn't some kind of regulatory failure (cancer, etc.) but that plays some functional role, perhaps in short-term memory storage. \nIn some neuroscience models, we are thought to store massive amounts of info in our HC over the last day or two of our lives, in synaptic connections, and we are also thought to flush this store out regularly, with only a subset of those memories being \"written to the cortex\" for long-term storage, usually while we dream and sleep. Adult NG is presumed by some to help this somehow, or play some other functional role.\nBut a [March 2018 Nature paper](https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/study-finds-no-neurogenesis-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-29987) by Sorrells and Paredes at UCSF recently found sharply decining NG after the age of 1 year in human brains, and no NG in humans after the age of 13 yrs.\nThe Sorrells paper used a more stringent set of surface markers to search for new neurons than previous papers, and it argues previous studies weren't sufficiently rigorous in their neural classification approaches. It has a lot of neuroscientists confused again, as it comes from a respected group using some very careful work, and it concludes that adult humans do not do functionally important neurogenesis over their lifetimes. \nThen in April 2018 a careful stereology-based [study by Boldrini](https://www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/abundant-neurogenesis-found-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-30050) at Columbia, also using postmortem hippocampi, contradicted the Nature paper. Boldrini's paper again argues the 20 year old view that adult human hippocampi continually does NG. They found about 1,000 neural progenitor cells in each of the front, middle, and back regions of the DG at any time, throughout the human lifespan. This is plenty enough, in some models, to be functionally important to human thinking and memory.\nSo which is it? \nEither: \n1-- \nAdult human NG exists and is functionally important to us throughout our lifespan (birth to death), or \n2-- \nNG doesn't exist in significant numbers in older humans, or if it does occur it isn't functionally important.\nAssuming we find out by 2028, which will it be? Resolution is positive for option 1.\nResolves positive if a definitive study or set of studies best accords with option 1, negative if it best accords with option 2. We'll define \"definitive\" as at least one study published in a top-tier journal (top 10 in the field by impact factor) with strong evidence for 1 or 2, along with the absence of a competitively compelling publication giving evidence for the other possibility, as of Jan 1 2028. Resolves ambiguous if not definitive.\n", - "numforecasts": 143, + "numforecasts": 146, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1806,7 +1806,7 @@ } ], "description": "Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as \"Satoshi Nakamoto\", the maverick who developed bitcoin.\nHaven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator):\nON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. \nWill we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.\nQuestion resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??)\n", - "numforecasts": 460, + "numforecasts": 468, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1815,7 +1815,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n", - "numforecasts": 275, + "numforecasts": 278, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1933,7 +1933,7 @@ } ], "description": "Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).\nHowever, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. \nThere are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.\nWill the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?\nResolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 126, + "numforecasts": 127, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2070,17 +2070,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n", - "numforecasts": 414, + "numforecasts": 417, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2227,7 +2227,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.\nThis question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? \nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.\n", - "numforecasts": 236, + "numforecasts": 237, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2236,7 +2236,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2018, the record for longest verified human lifespan is held by Jeanne Louise Calment of Arles, France. She lived from 21 February 1875 to 4 August 1997, for a term of 122 years, 164 days.\nShe has held the record for longest confirmed human lifespan since 12 May 1990, was the first human ever to have been confirmed to have lived to the age of 116 years, and is the only human confirmed to have ever lived beyond 120 years. Calment reportedly remained mentally intact until the end of her life, and the New York Times reported that she had been in good health, though almost blind and deaf, as recently as a month before her death. She died of unspecified causes. \nThe oldest verified person currently alive, as of 8 December 2018, is Kane Tanaka of Japan. She was born on 2 January 1903 and at time of question writing is 115 years, 338 days old. If she is still alive on January 1 2050, she will be 146 years, 11 months, 30 days old. \nHere are the lists of oldest [verified people ever](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people), and [the oldest currently living](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_oldest_living_people) people.\nAs of January 1 2050, what will be the longest verified human lifespan on record, in years?\nTo avoid ambiguity in the event that someone is unconscious (perhaps for a long time) before their death, this question shall focus on age at legal death. If a person is declared legally dead by competent authorities, their age at the time their legal death takes effect shall be considered their age at death, even in the event that their physical body may still exist and certain biological functions may be maintained by extraordinary means. In case a person successfully emerges from cryopreservation between now and 2050, all time spent legally dead before and during cryopreservation shall be deducted from their lifespan.\nI have selected a maximum age possibility of 200, substantially above the maximum possible if Ms Tanaka lives to 2050, to account for the possibility that there are substantially older persons currently alive but unknown to gerontologists, or people with unverified claims whose claims subsequently become verified.\n", - "numforecasts": 178, + "numforecasts": 179, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2364,17 +2364,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network)\nThe fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind.\nSince the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes.\nThis question asks: At any point before 2030, will it once again be possible by any commercial means to travel between London and New York in less than three hours?\nTo resolve positively, at least one living human must make the journey from inside the metropolitan area of either New York City, United States or Greater London, United Kingdom, to inside the metropolitan area of the other city in under three hours any point before January 1 2030 by commercially available means, including chartered privately owned or operated civil aircraft or spacecraft, but not military aircraft or spacecraft.\nThe clock starts at the moment the journey itself begins (i.e. excluding time spent checking in, going through a security process, waiting on the tarmac at an airport before takeoff, et cetera.)\n", - "numforecasts": 273, + "numforecasts": 280, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2550,7 +2550,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) defines spaceflight as any flight above 100 kilometres (62 mi) above Earth's sea level.\nThe first human spaceflight occured in 12 April 1961, and as of June 17, 2018, a total of [561 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_travelers_by_name) had gone to space according to that definition. This works out to about 10 people per year since 1961, but progress has not been linear or continuous. \nAs of December 2018, the spacecraft with the highest crew capacity to have ever been sucessfully launched on a crewed mission is the now-retired [Space Shuttle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle), which could be configured to carry up to 10 astronauts at once, but [never actually carried more than eight.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-71) In recent years, proposals have been made for a new generation of super-heavy (and beyond) [spaceships capable of taking 100 or more humans to space in a single launch.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket)) \nThis question asks: When will the 10,000th human reach space?\nResolves positively if and when credible media reports announce that a person has become the 10,000th human to reach an altitude of 100km above Earth's sea level, or if and when the same announcement is credibly made by any national or international space agency. Entering orbit is not necessary - any flight above 100km will qualify.\nPersons born above this altitude (including on space stations or on astronomical objects other than Earth) are not included for purposes of this question, unless they later complete a qualifying spaceflight. Flights made from bodies other than Earth do not count. \nPersons must be alive and conscious (e.g. not in suspended animation or some other state of unconsciousness or minimal consciousness) when they cross the 100km boundary, but need not survive their full mission beyond that point in order to be counted.\nFinally, the number refers to the number of people to have made the flight, not the total number of flights - reflights made by the same person do not add to the total.\n", - "numforecasts": 150, + "numforecasts": 154, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2570,7 +2570,7 @@ } ], "description": "A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) \nThere are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. \nSome identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. \nSome nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States \"SPACE Act of 2015,\" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.\nOn 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. \nAccording to the article § 51303 of the law: \"A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.\" \nIn February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to \"jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space\" by, among other things, creating a \"legal framework\" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would \"invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg.\" In 2017, it became the \"first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space\", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.\n[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?\nResolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred. \nResources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples.\n", - "numforecasts": 238, + "numforecasts": 239, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2639,7 +2639,7 @@ } ], "description": "[warning: links may contain spoilers]\n[George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers).\nMany of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1).\nFor instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publication date of the next instalment, Winds of Winter, [keeps getting pushed back](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter#Publication_date) (it was at one point announced to be in 2016); and the narrative of the TV show is now much further along the books', [finishing entirely this coming year](https://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones/season-8-returning-2019).\nAlso: GRRM is now 70 years old, and not getting any younger. People have openly speculated that he might die before he finishes ASOIAF. When confronted with these speculations, GRRM [does not respond well](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/game-of-thrones-author-george-rr-martin-says-f-you-to-fans-who-fear-he-will-die-before-finishing-9596265.html).\nThis question asks the following:\nWill George R. R. Martin die before the official publication date of the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire?\nDetails: \n--- \nI have not specified the name of the 'final book' as [\"A Dream of Spring\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#A_Dream_of_Spring) in case that is not actually the last title in the series. He might change the name, or decide that more than eight books are needed; he's split planned instalments before, and the previous link includes a quote where he suggests he could do so again.\n--- \nFor a book to fulfil resolution criteria, GRRM or his representatives must announce the book as being the full resolution of the series prior to its publication. It should not be described as the [posthumous] publication of an edited incomplete draft or similar (which would make it analogous to [The Salmon of Doubt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Salmon_of_Doubt) or [Unfinished Tales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfinished_Tales)).\n------The Metaculus community consensus should agree that the book is an 'acceptable attempted resolution' to the ASOIAF story arc, and the print version should ideally include indications that the book is the end of the story (e.g. \"The End\" printed on the final pages). (The intention of this criterion is to avoid a situation where GRRM or his publishers say that they're releasing the final book but the story isn't actually 'done', to the extent that there are so many unresolved plot points and 'missing' foreshadowed events that it's clear that the narrative has been significantly cut short from what was originally planned by GRRM. Of course, it's almost inevitable that there will be one or two loose ends at the end, but that's not what I'm describing. I hope the Metaculus community will be sensible enough to draw the desired distinction.) \n", - "numforecasts": 329, + "numforecasts": 332, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2648,7 +2648,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 96, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2658,17 +2658,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 476, + "numforecasts": 488, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2766,7 +2766,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.\nIn the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?\nWhen will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?\nThe question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously.\nAn [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 133, + "numforecasts": 134, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2833,7 +2833,7 @@ } ], "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 606, + "numforecasts": 608, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2989,7 +2989,7 @@ } ], "description": "A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. \nIf the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the disease causing agent(s) are confirmed by a credible medical source to be different than those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious 'behavior', or capabilities of the agent are confirmed different than the original. This is to exclude infections that are medically indistuingishable from the natural version, which might make cases too difficult to verify. \nThe consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least capable of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect.\nWill such an agent infect 100 people by 2030? \nThis question resolves positive if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed \"infected\" by one or more confirmed synthetic \"biological weapon\"s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause.\n", - "numforecasts": 152, + "numforecasts": 153, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2999,17 +2999,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [The euro is the second largest and second most traded currency in the global foreign exchange market after the United States dollar.](https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf)\nThe Eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Other EU states (except for Denmark and the United Kingdom) are obliged to join once they meet the criteria to do so.\nNo state has left, and there are no provisions to do so or to be expelled.\nAndorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City have formal agreements with the EU to use the euro as their official currency and issue their own coins, and Kosovo and Montenegro have adopted the euro unilaterally, but these countries do not officially form part of the Eurozone and do not have representation in the European Central Bank (ECB) or in the Eurogroup.\nThis question asks: On or before January 1 2025, will any full Member State of the Eurozone as of February 10 2019 (that is, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain) cease to use the Euro as its official currency? \nNote that this question does not apply to Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Kosovo, Montenegro, or any states that come to be Eurozone members after February 10 2019; only those expressly listed in the paragraph above. This question also does not apply to the overseas territories of countries which have agreements to use the euro (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and Saint-Barthélemy.)\nResolution is by citation of a press release from the Government or Central Bank of any of the relevant countries, or by credible media reports in the financial press, to the effect that the relevant country actually starts the process of phasing out the Euro as its official currency before 2025, and replacing it with either an existing currency (including but not limited to the US dollar, British pound, Japanese Yen and other reserve currencies extant as of 2019) or introducing (or re-introducing) a national currency of its own. A decision to temporarily leave the Eurozone for a fixed period or until certain conditions are met shall also suffice for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 215, + "numforecasts": 216, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3205,7 +3205,7 @@ } ], "description": "The 2008 financial crisis was [\"considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nAccording to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&start=1961&view=chart)), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%).\nQuestion: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?\nEstimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers.\nThis question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/).\n", - "numforecasts": 766, + "numforecasts": 769, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3215,17 +3215,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 1049, + "numforecasts": 1061, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3265,7 +3265,7 @@ } ], "description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n", - "numforecasts": 159, + "numforecasts": 161, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3383,7 +3383,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016.\nFarage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the [2016 Brexit vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019. \nIn May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom), becoming by far the largest party by number of UK seats in the European Parliament, and also the largest single party overall in the European Parliament. \nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?\nResolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 209, + "numforecasts": 212, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3452,7 +3452,7 @@ } ], "description": "Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024.\nWill the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.\nSee also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/)\n", - "numforecasts": 197, + "numforecasts": 201, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3501,7 +3501,7 @@ } ], "description": "A sister question asks when the [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) will be resolved - here we ask which way it will turn out.\nAgain, let's say that the Collatz Program in pseudocode is:\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere n is a positive integer.\nThe Conjecture is that for all integer inputs the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1).\nFor any particular execution of the Collatz program, there are three possible outcomes:\n1) It moves up and down through input arguments of different sizes, until it encounters a power of 2, and then cascades down to 1, and halts.\n2) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes until it repeats a number. From that point onward it will repeat a cycle, and never halt.\n3) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes, but keeps expanding its frontier of numerical size, without ever repeating an input or encountering a power of 2. In this case, it will never halt.\nPer [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture), Jeffrey Lagarias in 2010 claimed that based only on known information about this problem, \"this is an extraordinarily difficult problem, completely out of reach of present day mathematics.\"\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a positive proof of the Conjecture (i.e. that the Collatz Program halts for all integer inputs) in a major Mathematics journal before June 21, 2520. It will resolve negatively if there is a publication of a disconfirmation in a major mathematics journal before that time. \nIf the Conjecture has neither been proven nor disproven before that time, it will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", - "numforecasts": 179, + "numforecasts": 187, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3539,7 +3539,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true, when it will be resolved one way or the other, and whether a corresponding halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.\nFor completeness and symmetry, this question asks when the halting problem will be resolved.\nWe can write the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nPossible inputs to collatz() are divided into three sets:\n---Set 1: Inputs for which collatz() halts, after eventually encountering a power of 2 \n---Set 2: Inputs for which collatz() eventually encounters a number twice, and then cycles forever \n---Set 3: Inputs that cause collatz() to forever avoid both repetition and powers of 2, exploring larger and larger numbers \nThe Conjecture is that all integers belong to Set 1, and that Sets 2 and 3 are empty.\nThe halting problem for the Collatz Program asks whether there can exist a program that takes as input an integer n, always halts itself, and returns 1 if collatz(n) halts and 0 if it does not halt. \nIt is possible that the Conjecture is false, and also that the halting problem for the Collatz Problem is not computable, in the same sense that the more general [Halting Problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halting_problem) is not computable.\nThere are a number of ways in which it could turn out that the halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.\n---If the Conjecture is true (and collatz()) always halts) then the halt-checking program is trivial: always return 1. \n---If the Conjecture is false, but Sets 2 and 3 are finite, then a halt-checking program could check a finite list of inputs for which to return 0, and return 1 otherwise. \n---If all inputs are either in Set 1 (halts) or Set 2 (cycles), then a modified version of collatz() could run until it either halts (returning 1) or detects a cycle (returning 0). Similarly, if Set 3 is finite, then a combination of checking a finite list and checking for cycles would suffice. \n---Possibly all three sets are infinite, but there is still some simple (or at least computable) rule that can determine membership without running collatz() forever. \nWhen will this halting problem be resolved? It could be:\n---At exactly the same time that the Collatz Conjecture is resolved, especially if the Conjecture is shown to be true. \n---Later than the Conjecture is shown to be false. It could be that no algorithm is found for separating Set 1 from Sets 2 and 3, but also no proof is found that such an algorithm cannot exist. \n---Earlier than the Conjecture is resolved (as was pointed out in a comment on a related question). It could be proven, for example, that only a finite number of inputs cause collatz() to not halt, without resolving whether that number is zero. \nThis question will resolve with the date of publication in a major mathematics journal of an article that either 1) proves the Conjecture to be true (with the halting problem as a trivial implication), or 2) explicitly resolves the halting problem.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3549,17 +3549,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018.\nIn any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels?\nResolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 347, + "numforecasts": 361, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3606,7 +3606,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://(https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/)) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/).\nWhen will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon?\nThis question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036.\nSee also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/)\n", - "numforecasts": 119, + "numforecasts": 120, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3738,7 +3738,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person.\nIn 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?\nResolution:\n---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) \n---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. \n---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 157, + "numforecasts": 159, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3823,7 +3823,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n", - "numforecasts": 124, + "numforecasts": 127, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3850,7 +3850,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). \nRecently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.\n[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.\nWhen will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?\nThis question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.\n", - "numforecasts": 129, + "numforecasts": 134, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3859,7 +3859,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). An IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8).\nWhen will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a privately held clean meat company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.\nFor the purpose of this question, a company is a \"clean meat company\" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\", \"cultivated meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean meat company XYZ holds initial public offering\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n", - "numforecasts": 203, + "numforecasts": 208, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3868,7 +3868,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years.\nAlternative meat product company valuations can take off quickly, as illustrated by the example of Beyond Meat, which within 10 years has grown its market capitalisation [beyond $10bn](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=beyond+meat+market+cap&meta=).\nWhen will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn, in 2019 prices?\nResolution\nPositive resolution requires that, within six months after the clean meat company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultivated meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property. \nCompany valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n", - "numforecasts": 128, + "numforecasts": 130, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3904,7 +3904,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)):\nStarlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-performance satellite bus and requisite customer ground transceivers to implement a new space-based Internet communication system.\nAccording to [this Space News article](https://spacenews.com/fcc-oks-lower-orbit-for-some-starlink-satellites/), they intend to launch 12 000 satellites by the end of 2027. As of the 22nd of March 2019, 62 have been launched (at least [57 are operational](https://spacenews.com/contact-lost-with-three-starlink-satellites-other-57-healthy/)), with 60 more scheduled in October 2019. Quite a long way to go.\nQuestion: How many Starlink satellites will be in orbit and operational at the end of 2027?\nResolution details:\n---Resolution is by credible media report. \n---This is insensitive to the project changing name, being bought by another company, etc. as long as it is the same project as judged by a Metaculus admin. \n---The end of 2027 is 2027-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. \n", - "numforecasts": 186, + "numforecasts": 188, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -4052,7 +4052,7 @@ } ], "description": "Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is.\nStats to consider:\nDistance\n---Mars: between 55 and 400 million km from Earth (0.37 to 2.7 AU). It comes nearest to Earth every 2.14 years, or ~26 months. \n---The Moon: ~0.38 million km from Earth (~0.0026 AU). \nOne-way communication lag\n---Mars: between 3 to 22 minutes \n---The Moon: ~1.3 seconds \nGravity\n---Mars: 0.38 g \n---The Moon: 0.17 g \nRotation period\n---Mars: 25 hours \n---The Moon: 1 month \nAtmosphere\n---Mars: mostly CO2, at ~1% the pressure of Earth's. \n---The Moon: negligible if any. \nSolar energy\n---Mars: ~44% of Earth's, but occasional dust storms can bring this down to almost nothing. \n---The Moon: same as Earth's, but with no clouds or other interference. \nThis question is resolved when either the Moon or Mars has 10,000 people living on the body who have been residents for 3+ years at the time of counting. I've chosen 3 years to exclude people who arrive on Mars during one Earth-Mars opposition and leave during the next. \nResidents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, are not counted for this question.\n'Residence' is defined and determined by the government or entity administering the colony, or a similar official source.\nIn case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans.\nResolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100.\n", - "numforecasts": 233, + "numforecasts": 234, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -4128,7 +4128,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report:\nSince 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006.\nWill US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?\nThis question resolves on the basis of data published by the Congressional Research Service.\n", - "numforecasts": 93, + "numforecasts": 94, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -4213,7 +4213,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 252, + "numforecasts": 253, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -4392,7 +4392,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 182, + "numforecasts": 183, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -4526,7 +4526,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70.\n", - "numforecasts": 200, + "numforecasts": 203, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -4636,7 +4636,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Developing reuscitation technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation. And since cryonics organisations can fail and thaw the preserved bodies, it would be better if such technology would be developed earlier rather than later.\nTo find out when such technology will be developed, this question asks: When will the first person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded, conditional on this occurring before 1. January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n", - "numforecasts": 96, + "numforecasts": 97, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -4692,7 +4692,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)).\nThe [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html):\nThe Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. \nQuestion: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?\nResolution details:\n---This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. \n---This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports. \n---In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable. \n---If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached. \n", - "numforecasts": 193, + "numforecasts": 199, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -4815,7 +4815,7 @@ } ], "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) \nWill ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n", - "numforecasts": 227, + "numforecasts": 228, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -4864,7 +4864,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. \nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars. \nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)), which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is [due to be fully operational by the late 2020s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)#Constellation_design_and_status) Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation [may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-future-multibillion-dollar-valuation-starlink-internet-morgan-stanley-2019-9?r=US&IR=T)\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, [crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015.](https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1196147909647044608) As of 2019, the company is reportedly [valued at $33.3 billion.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/spacex-valuation-33point3-billion-after-starlink-satellites-fundraising.html)\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. \nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 398, + "numforecasts": 400, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -5065,7 +5065,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n", - "numforecasts": 142, + "numforecasts": 145, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -5134,7 +5134,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 513, + "numforecasts": 515, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -5242,17 +5242,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41000000000000003, + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", - "numforecasts": 307, + "numforecasts": 317, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -5272,7 +5272,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n", - "numforecasts": 1246, + "numforecasts": 1247, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -5309,17 +5309,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.31999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n", - "numforecasts": 169, + "numforecasts": 170, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -5415,7 +5415,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive. \nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100. \nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? \nOne issue is that AGI is rather difficult to precisely define. A separate question addresses a similar issue by asking about [human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) in a particular adversarial test. Here we'd like a definition that connects more closely with established benchmarks for various capabilities; it also sets an arguably somewhat lower bar.\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n", - "numforecasts": 454, + "numforecasts": 458, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -5453,7 +5453,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nThis question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n", - "numforecasts": 155, + "numforecasts": 159, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -5502,7 +5502,7 @@ } ], "description": "In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.\nLike most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?\nSome specifics:\n---Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model). \n---Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total. \n---Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date. \n---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. \n---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). \n---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. \n", - "numforecasts": 401, + "numforecasts": 402, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -5792,7 +5792,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.\nQuestion: When will the United States admit a new state?\nThis question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A \"new state\" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019.\nIt resolves as \"> Dec 31, 2050\" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.\n", - "numforecasts": 159, + "numforecasts": 160, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -5850,7 +5850,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue?\nThe admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 215, + "numforecasts": 216, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -5908,7 +5908,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.\nThis question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question can be resolved at any time.\n", - "numforecasts": 279, + "numforecasts": 280, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -6006,7 +6006,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 243, + "numforecasts": 245, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -6094,17 +6094,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", - "numforecasts": 2561, + "numforecasts": 2576, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -6144,7 +6144,7 @@ } ], "description": "An oracle ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem#Oracle), [Lesswrongwiki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI)) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors.\nThis question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally superhuman AI is developed first, the question will immediately resolve negatively. By default, the question will resolve ambiguously on the resolve date, 2099-12-31.\nSuccessful creation of either technology would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderators.\n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -6245,7 +6245,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", - "numforecasts": 161, + "numforecasts": 162, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -6361,7 +6361,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.\nThis question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. \nThis question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).\nResolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. \nIn case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.\nOther questions in the series. \nHow many new cases of COVID-19 in:\n---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) \nSimilar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n", - "numforecasts": 794, + "numforecasts": 813, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -6370,7 +6370,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", - "numforecasts": 145, + "numforecasts": 149, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -6516,17 +6516,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 1072, + "numforecasts": 1080, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -6546,7 +6546,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", - "numforecasts": 567, + "numforecasts": 570, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -6584,7 +6584,7 @@ } ], "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n", - "numforecasts": 193, + "numforecasts": 194, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -6642,7 +6642,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n", - "numforecasts": 198, + "numforecasts": 199, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -6716,7 +6716,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n", - "numforecasts": 256, + "numforecasts": 266, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -6762,17 +6762,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is \"Will the US Experience a Depression?\" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):\nA depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.\nAccording to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). \n---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. \n", - "numforecasts": 345, + "numforecasts": 347, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -6781,7 +6781,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n", - "numforecasts": 192, + "numforecasts": 196, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -6790,7 +6790,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 414, + "numforecasts": 418, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -6799,7 +6799,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 175, + "numforecasts": 176, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -6915,7 +6915,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank\nis designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity.\nAs of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?\n", - "numforecasts": 222, + "numforecasts": 225, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7039,17 +7039,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n", - "numforecasts": 168, + "numforecasts": 169, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7077,17 +7077,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n", - "numforecasts": 519, + "numforecasts": 529, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7096,7 +7096,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [a review](https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315) of the economic impacts of climate change,\nThe impacts of climate change are many and diverse. Determining whether these impacts are beneficial or detrimental, small or large, depends on the sector, location, and time being considered. Unfortunately, a reading of the literature on the impacts of climate change (Field and Canziani 2014) is likely to leave a lay reader confused. It is very difficult to make sense of the many and different effects: crops hit by worsening drought, crops growing faster because of carbon dioxide fertilization, heat stress increasing, cold stress decreasing, sea levels rising, increasing energy demand for cooling, decreasing energy demand for heating, infectious disease spreading, species going extinct. Thus we need aggregate indicators to assess whether climate change is, on balance, a good thing or a bad thing and whether the climate problem is small or large relative to the many other problems that society faces.\nA common aggregate measure economists have given is the impact of climate change on GDP by the end of the century. From a [2015 survey of climate economists](https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/expertconsensusreport.pdf),\nOn average, these experts predicted losses of between 5% and 10% of GDP [by 2090], though there was considerable variation. The mean and median estimates were GDP losses of 10.2% and 5.5%, respectively, with a variance of 133%.\nHere I will define damage incurred by climate change as the time-integral of the difference in non-discounted value of world GDP on a path with warming-inducing emissions as a percentage of total GDP along the path without emissions.\nThis question asks, what will be the total damage incurred by climate change during the 21st century, as given by the definition of damage above? The resolution will be determined by a credible estimate from economists in, or after the year 2101.\nMetaculus admins will determine, in consultation with the community, which estimate is most credible. In general, a robust meta-analysis which aggregates estimates from high-quality studies is the best source for resolution. Barring the availability of such a meta-analysis, a survey of experts is preferred. Barring the availability of either source, a high quality study will determine resolution. If none of these sources are available, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 27, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7201,7 +7201,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In September 2019 Fahy et al. [published](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028) results from the TRIIM (Thymus Regeneration, Immunorestoration, and Insulin Mitigation) trial. Their stated goals were to investigate whether they could restore the immune systems in eight healthy older men (ages 51 - 65) using a combination of recombinant human growth hormone, dehydroepiandrosterone and metformin. While they achieved impressive on-paper results partially restoring the [thymus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thymus), the most impressive result came from their [epigenetic measurement of aging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigenetic_clock) of subjects in the trial.\nFahy et al. had successfully reversed aging in their subjects according to four epigenetic measures of aging. The effect size was large: each measure indicated an average gain of over 2 years after 1 year of treatment. In other words, if hypothetically a subject was 60 years old at the beginning of the trial, both chronologically and epigenetically, then by the end of the year they would be 61 years old chronologically but less than 59 years old epigenetically.\nOf the epigenetic measures of aging, GrimAge is thought to be the best available predictor of lifespan. From [the paper](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6366976/) introducing GrimAge,\nUsing large scale validation data from thousands of individuals, we demonstrate that DNAm GrimAge stands out among existing epigenetic clocks in terms of its predictive ability for time-to-death, time-to-coronary heart disease, time-to-cancer, its strong relationship with computed tomography data for fatty liver/excess visceral fat, and age-at-menopause.\nFahy et al. demonstrated a mean age reversal of 2.16 years after 1 year of treatment according to the GrimAge measurement (see Table 1 in [the paper](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028)).\nFahy is reportedly spearheading a new trial, called TRIIM-X (see [this part of his recent TEDx talk](https://youtu.be/PFg-OMHvI2E?t=968)). He hopes to investigate the effects of a modified version of the same treatment with the benefits of a larger trial and a more diverse set of participants.\nThis question asks, after 12 months of treatment, what will be the mean expected lifespan gain after taking the directed treatment in the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by GrimAge?\nIf for whatever reason, the relevant GrimAge results from TRIIM-X are not released by January 1st 2027, this question resolves ambiguously. If the results are informally published (as indicated by some reliable online document of any kind) at some point prior to January 1st 2027, the question resolves retroactively on the date the document was published.\n", - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 33, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7228,7 +7228,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture.\nWhen will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT?\nDefine a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese.\nA vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. \nMore narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators.\nThe date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain.\n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7275,7 +7275,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "At the end of April, NASA [announced](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) the selection of three private companies to develop a lunar lander:\nNASA has selected three U.S. companies to design and develop human landing systems (HLS) for the agency’s Artemis program, one of which will land the first woman and next man on the surface of the Moon by 2024.\nThe three companies are:\n1--Blue Origin \n2--Dynetics \n3--SpaceX \nThis question asks: Which of these three companies will be first in developing a lunar landing system that successfully lands a person on the moon?\nThis question will resolve to precisely 1,2 or 3 when a lander build by the respective team successfully lands a living human on the moon. In the case that none of the 3 successfully lands a living human on the moon before January 1, 2030, the question will resolve to a value of 0.\nIf two of the teams merge or NASA selects a different company to develop a lunar lander, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7333,7 +7333,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", - "numforecasts": 166, + "numforecasts": 168, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7362,7 +7362,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars.\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan?\nThe date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars.\nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 33, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7371,7 +7371,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.\n[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or \"National Debt\" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm)\n[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/)\nThis question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars?\nResolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics.\n", - "numforecasts": 104, + "numforecasts": 111, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7541,7 +7541,7 @@ } ], "description": "In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades.\nWashington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html)\nThe Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.\nThe matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.\nA senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.\nThe meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.\nThe National Security Council declined to comment.\nThis question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place. \nThere is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 117, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7550,7 +7550,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n", - "numforecasts": 271, + "numforecasts": 280, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7559,7 +7559,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7635,7 +7635,7 @@ } ], "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 119, + "numforecasts": 121, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7655,7 +7655,7 @@ } ], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand.\nAccording to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358).\n\nQuestion and Resolution\n=======================\n\nWill there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 39, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7740,7 +7740,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n", - "numforecasts": 137, + "numforecasts": 154, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7749,7 +7749,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "When the Pope dies [(or resigns)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI), the Cardinals of the Cathlic Church convene a [Papal Conclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave) to elect the Pope's successor. This mysterious procedure culminates in the [fumata](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave#The_fumata_(smoke)), traditionally the burning of the ballots. Black smoke indicates that the ballot was inconclusive, while white smoke indicates that [a new Pope has been elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habemus_papam).\nThis question resolves as the first date and time (after question launch, before 2036-12-17) at which white smoke is emitted from the building in which a Papal Conclave is meeting.\nIf the Catholic Church or Papacy dissolves during or in the wake of Pope Francis' papacy, question resolves ambiguous. However, if both institutions are remain effectively intact, this question closes on 2036-12-17 (Pope Francis' 100th birthday). Should Pope Francis still be alive and Pope at that time, this question resolves as >2036-12-17.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7776,7 +7776,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the S&P 500 index achieve?\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Inflation rates to be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index.\n", - "numforecasts": 202, + "numforecasts": 205, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -7892,7 +7892,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The video live-streaming service [Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/) is primarily used for streaming liveplay of video games. In fact, all 50 of the currently most-followed accounts are video-game streamers, with Fortnite being the most common title played by streamers.\nThe user who currently has the most followers, Ninja, stopped using the platform on August 1, 2019 in order to move to the platform [Mixer.](https://mixer.com/) He still has 14.7m followers on Twitch, despite not having posted a video since then.\nThis question asks: When will a Twitch user have more followers than Ninja?\nQuestion resolves as the first time at which the most-followed account on Twitch is someone other than Ninja. If Ninja’s account is deleted from Twitch, the question will resolve as the time of deletion.\nThis question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.\n", - "numforecasts": 150, + "numforecasts": 151, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8033,7 +8033,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869.\nWhen will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000?\nThis question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been <1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date.\n", - "numforecasts": 236, + "numforecasts": 240, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8053,7 +8053,7 @@ } ], "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", - "numforecasts": 382, + "numforecasts": 388, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8073,7 +8073,7 @@ } ], "description": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\nWill Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity \n---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. \nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.\n", - "numforecasts": 140, + "numforecasts": 141, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8083,17 +8083,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8133,7 +8133,7 @@ } ], "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", - "numforecasts": 1290, + "numforecasts": 1301, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8153,7 +8153,7 @@ } ], "description": "Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.\nAustralia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).\nIn late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: \nWill Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 145, + "numforecasts": 146, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8238,7 +8238,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the \"war on drugs\" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.\nPsilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.\nIf the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [\"Culture War\"](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.\nThis question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?\nRelated questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)\n[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)\nResolution Criteria:\nThis question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.\nIf the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.\nAdmission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.\n", - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 33, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8247,7 +8247,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8265,7 +8265,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n", - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 106, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8332,7 +8332,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).\nOn March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).\nThis question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):\nimport pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(\"https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv\") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) \n", - "numforecasts": 289, + "numforecasts": 293, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8350,7 +8350,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.\nIt represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.\nBetween 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).\nThe question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.\nCompanion question:\n---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) \n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "numforecasts": 102, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8360,17 +8360,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:\n\"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?\"\nThe question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 155, + "numforecasts": 164, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8379,7 +8379,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.\nIn 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.\n\nWhen will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?\n\n---This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. \n---A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. \n---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. \n---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. \n---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8569,7 +8569,7 @@ } ], "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass.\n[Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8763,7 +8763,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n", - "numforecasts": 148, + "numforecasts": 153, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8781,7 +8781,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization) and the [Miss Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Universe) brand, and host of [The Apprentice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_American_TV_series), and since being elected in 2016 has become significantly more well-known.\nOne proxy for how prominent Trump is in the public eye is Google Trends search interest. Search interest in Donald Trump started rising in June 2015 when Trump [announced his candidacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign), spiked in November 2016 due to [the election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and has been at about a quarter of that level during his presidency.\nWhat will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024, as a percentage of in November 2016?\nResolution is by the Google Trends interest over time figure for the topic [Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90) for September 2024, as displayed on the google trends site on October 1st 2024, as a percentage of the value in November 2016. If search interest is marked as <1 for that month, resolve at 0.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8839,7 +8839,7 @@ } ], "description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \nWhen I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\nThe tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\nMy own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\". \nThus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\").\n", - "numforecasts": 144, + "numforecasts": 145, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8888,7 +8888,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note: This question is the same as [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), but with a higher range.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://spacex.com), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California.\nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit (Falcon 1 in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft (Dragon in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station (Dragon in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun (Falcon Heavy's payload of a Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the Starship. This vehicle is intended to enable ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond, as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars.\nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as Starlink, which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is due to be fully operational by the late 2020s. Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015. As of July 2020, SpaceX was reportedly valued at [$44 billion](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/spacex-is-raising-up-to-1-billion-at-44-billion-valuation.html).\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization.\nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -8936,17 +8936,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n", - "numforecasts": 300, + "numforecasts": 343, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9029,7 +9029,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/). \n[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees.\nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; [but the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631).\nThis question asks: When will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be sold, and implanted into the brains of human consumers?\nYou can find information on the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices [here](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices).\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on when regulatory approval will be obtained.\nThis question resolves >2050 if no approval is given before 2050. The question resolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\nChangelog:\n2020-08-17 : removed § triggering positive resolution upon Investigational Device Exemption or Humanitarian Device Exemption. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/#comment-37813).\n", - "numforecasts": 114, + "numforecasts": 116, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9159,7 +9159,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Blades used by disabled athletes are improving, allowing them to run faster.\nThe current world record for the 100 meters is 9.572 seconds, ran by Usain Bolt in 2009. You can see how this record progressed over time on Wikipedia's article [Men's 100 metres world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression). Jeremy Richmond, a scientist, predicts the best possible time for a non-augmented human is 9.27 seconds (source: [Ultimate 100-Meter Time: 9.27 Seconds?](https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a20791832/ultimate-100-meter-time-9-27-seconds/)).\nThis question asks, when will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?\nIf no human without biological feet runs 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds before January 1st 2100, then this question resolves as >2100.\nLiam Malone thinks it's possible – although not while respecting the rules set by the Paralympics on which artificial legs athletes can wear (source: [Usain Bolt: Para-athlete Liam Malone vows to run faster than Olympic legend](https://www.bbc.com/sport/disability-sport/40677890)).\nConditions:\n--- \nGenetically modified humans don't count for the purpose of this question.\n--- \nThe artificial limbs can't have wheels or generate energy, nor have any device that produces energy, and must finish at the same height they started (ie. not convert potential gravitational energy into kinetic energy).\n--- \nThe run must start from an immobile position.\n--- \nThe athlete can't start running less than 0.1 seconds after the start signal (source: [5 Rules You Probably Didn’t Know About the 100m Sprint](https://tallypress.com/fun/5-rules-you-probably-didnt-know-about-the-100m-sprint/)).\n--- \nThe wind speed has to be at most 3 m/s in their favor.\n--- \nThe run must finish before January 1st, 2100, 00:00 UDT+0.\n--- \nThe run must be on a flat ground.\n--- \nGravitational acceleration and air resistance must be similar to those we currently normally found on Earth.\nThe source used for resolution will be Guinness World Records, or some other appropriately reputable source as determined by Metaculus admins in communication with the community.\n", - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9169,17 +9169,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. \n[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.\nAnd [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. \nWill this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:\nBy start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? \nResolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:\n--- \nThis would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5).\n--- \nAlmost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".\n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasts": 83, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9189,17 +9189,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?\nThis question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/).\nIf the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology:\n---Let t be the date when the AGI is publicly known, as determined by the above Metaculus question. Let C be the company that developed the AGI. \n---Calculate the total return (including dividends) of C's stock over the period from 12 months prior to t to one month prior to t, inclusive.[1] \n---Over the same period, calculate the total return of the FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists. \n---Calculate the ratio of C's total return over this period to the total return of FTSE. If the ratio is 1.5 or greater, then this question resolves affirmatively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. \nIf the first AGI is not developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves ambiguously.\n[1] In the event that the market is closed on the start/end date, instead use the latest prior date on which the market is open. In the event that the date does not exist, use the latest prior date that exists. For example, if the AGI is developed on December 31, \"one month prior\" is considered to be November 30. If the market is closed on November 30, then use November 29 instead.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9266,7 +9266,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n---There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n---Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \n---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. \n", - "numforecasts": 213, + "numforecasts": 224, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9276,17 +9276,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9335,7 +9335,7 @@ } ], "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", - "numforecasts": 552, + "numforecasts": 561, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9393,7 +9393,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n", - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9413,7 +9413,7 @@ } ], "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 178, + "numforecasts": 179, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9482,7 +9482,7 @@ } ], "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", - "numforecasts": 500, + "numforecasts": 502, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9520,7 +9520,7 @@ } ], "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 44, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9600,7 +9600,7 @@ } ], "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 370, + "numforecasts": 375, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9618,7 +9618,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Amazon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)) is a technology company best known for its online shopping website. It is the [third largest company in the world](https://www.thebalance.com/market-capitalization-3305826) by market cap.\n[Amazon Prime Air](https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Prime-Air) is a program under development that plans to deliver packages to customers using drones, or uncrewed aerial vehicles (quadcopters and the like). The program has suffered substantial delays. When it was revealed in 2013, CEO Jeff Bezos predicted that drone delivery would be available by [2018](https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-predicted-amazon-would-be-making-drone-deliveries-by-2018-2018-12). Test deliveries were first made in 2016. In 2019, Amazon stated that drone delivery would be available [within months](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/amazon-promises-drone-delivery-months/story?id=63494811). However, as of September 2020, drone delivery is still apparently under development.\nWhen will Amazon deliver some products by drone?\nThis question resolves as the date when, according credible media reports or the Amazon website itself, a consumer in one of the 20 largest U.S. cities can order some product on [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) and have it delivered by an uncrewed aerial vehicle.\nThe drone must be uncrewed, but not necessarily autonomous (it could be remotely piloted). It must primarily move through the air; sidewalk drones such as Starship Technologies robots do not count.\nOnly one product needs to be eligible for drone delivery to qualify; for example, there could be a special promotion where only Amazon Echo devices are delivered by drone.\nIf the service is available in only certain parts of the city, at least 20% of the city's area must be covered, at least in principle (it is not necessary that Amazon be able to deliver to every single address in the coverage area). In cases where the city has an associated \"metro area\" (such as LA), we consider only the city proper.\nThere may be a fee to access drone delivery (similar to Amazon Fresh), a waiting list, or technical requirements (e.g. a landing zone), but the customer may not be required to have any special relationship with Amazon (e.g. employee/friends and family, signing an NDA, or being part of a restricted beta program).\nThere are no requirements for delivery speed.\nThe drone must be used for the final step of a delivery (the \"last mile\"), and need only be used for that step. For example, a delivery driver could drive a van to a neighborhood and deploy drones to deliver boxes to houses on the block. On the other hand, an autonomous airliner delivering packages to warehouses would not qualify.\nIf there is insufficient information on any of these criteria (e.g. it is unclear how much of a city's area is covered), the question remains open, and resolves when all of the criteria are clearly satisfied. The question could resolve ambiguous if there is conflicting information, e.g. if one report claims that 15% of the city's area is covered, and another claims 25%. \n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9647,7 +9647,7 @@ } ], "description": "As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for [the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles](https://www.thedrive.com/news/36687/california-bans-the-sale-of-new-gas-and-diesel-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Gavin%20Newsom%20just%20signed%20a,out%20the%20internal%20combustion%20engine.) in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape?\nAutomakers can expect to incur R&D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, [Volkswagen is spending billions](https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet-on-electric-vehicles-in-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=By%202023%2C%20Volkswagen%20says%20it,profits%20from%202015%20through%202018.) in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and [Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/mercedes-maps-out-push-to-lift-profits-during-electric-car-shift).\nFor some additional context, here is the IEA [Historical EV Market Share and Outlook](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nThis question asks: Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?\nIf one of the top 10 current automakers (by vehicle sales), including Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler/Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Honda, SAIC, BMW, and Nissan, declares bankruptcy, the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf the automaker declares bankruptcy the question will resolve positively even if they are bought out by another company or given a loan by the government \n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9676,7 +9676,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nWith access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.\nBy contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.\nAs of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance. \nIn their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:\n[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.\nHow many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?\nThis question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task. \nIf human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions: \n--- \n[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\n--- \n[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "numforecasts": 106, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9705,7 +9705,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9783,7 +9783,7 @@ } ], "description": "The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.\nRecently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783).\nWill life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?\nThe question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard \"extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence\" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt.\nThe question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus is found or the evidence remains inconclusive.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) \n---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) \n---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) \n", - "numforecasts": 217, + "numforecasts": 218, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9850,7 +9850,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9904,7 +9904,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nIn April 2017, Waymo launched an early rider program in Phoenix, Arizona, which signed up 400 users to try out a test edition of Waymo's transportation service. Over the next year, 400 riders used the Waymo service, providing feedback. In May 2018, Waymo announced that it plans to allow everyone in Phoenix to request a driverless ride before the end of the year. On December 5, 2018, the company launched a commercial self-driving car service called \"Waymo One\"; users in the Phoenix metropolitan area use an app to request a pick-up.\nBy November 2019, the service was operating autonomous vehicles without a safety backup driver, the first autonomous service worldwide operating without safety drivers in the car.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 for opened questions in the last 12 months report riding a Waymo self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Waymo taxi we mean any Waymo car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n", - "numforecasts": 81, + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9924,7 +9924,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Petrov Day](http://petrovday.com/) is the yearly anniversary of the [1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident) on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union.\nOne proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to [create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJxwFMSL5TPN2usC6/modes-of-petrov-day), with a big red button with much lower stakes:\nAnd you can also play on hard mode: \"During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak.\"\nLesswrong has hosted an event along these lines [in 2019](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvzfFcbmKgEsDBRHh/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2019) and [in 2020](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020). In 2019, 125 users were given \"launch codes\" that, if input into a red button on the front page, would take down the site for the day. In 2020, the same was done with 270 users. The site [was not took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krgNxiooRfnP9L4ZD/follow-up-to-petrov-day-2019) in 2019, and [was took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020?commentId=CviMXu8BciCqcSMKJ#Relating_to_the_End_of_Humanity) in 2020.\nIf Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?\nIf the site [lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/) hosts a 2021 Petrov day event, and a group of Lesswrong users are given the choice to take a unilateral action that ends the 2021 Petrov day event (such as entering launch codes that take down the Lesswrong site, as in 2019 and 2020), then this will resolve positively if one of them takes that action and negatively if none of them do. Otherwise, this resolves ambigiously.\n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9944,7 +9944,7 @@ } ], "description": "Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.\nWill Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?\nFor this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9964,7 +9964,7 @@ } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.\nThe BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 167, + "numforecasts": 168, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -9974,17 +9974,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 134, + "numforecasts": 136, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10093,7 +10093,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.\nDuring the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).\nThis question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?\nHow many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?\nThe question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as reported by reputable news outlets or governmental organizations, (Associated Press, Reuters, the US DOD, the UN, ect.).\nWars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. \nTerrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\nArmed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.\n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10142,7 +10142,7 @@ } ], "description": "Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1):\nCybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud.\nThe SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore [the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government.\n[In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), the DOJ also details that the charges are confined to McAfee the individual and that they did not find any connection with the “anti-virus company bearing his name.”\n[The DOJ’s charges](https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1324536/download) against McAfee are a bit dry, but detail 10 counts against the entrepreneur. McAfee faced five counts of tax evasion, which each carry a maximum penalty of five years in prison, as well as five counts of “willful failure to file a tax return,” each carrying a maximum penalty of one year in prison.\n[The SEC filing is a much more interesting read](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/18506139/1/securities-and-exchange-commission-v-mcafee/), with 55 pages detailing a lengthy investigation into McAfee’s alleged fraudulent activity promoting a number of ICOs throughout 2017 and 2018. The report specifically notes that McAfee allegedly received more than $11.6 million worth of BTC and ETH tokens for promoting seven ICOs. Unfortunately, those offerings were not named in the suit. He additionally received $11.5 million worth of the promoted tokens, the suit alleges.\nWill John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?\n---If John McAfee pleads guilty or is found guilty and receives a prison sentence of at least 3 years, this question resolves positively. If he receives a lighter or no prison sentence, it resolves negatively. \n---If McAfee avoids extraction to USA and in this way avoids facing charges, the question resolves negatively at the closing date. \n---Positive resolution does not require McAfee to actually finish his three year sentence. \n---Serving a combined total exceeding 3 years in pre-trail detention and post-trail detention is sufficient for positive resolution. \n---If this question does not resolve positively before 2025-01-01, this question resolves negatively. \n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10151,7 +10151,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/). Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe). Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens.\nThe Government of India requires a permit to visit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has outlawed all outsider visits to the North Sentinel Island, have designated a 3 mile exclusion zone around the island, and maintain an armed patrol of this exclusion zone in an attempt to prevent outside contact. Knowledge of Sentinelese culture is [extremely limited](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646218). They are designated a '[Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061)', and estimates of the island's population vary widely. The [2001 census recorded 39 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20141211011020/http://censusindia.gov.in/Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/06-Enumeration_of_Primitive_Tribes_in_A%26N_Islands.pdf#page=3) (21 men, 18 women), the [2011 census recorded only 15 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20150801173328/http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/3500_PART_B_DCHB_ANDAMAN%20%26%20NICOBAR%20ISLANDS.pdf) (12 men, 3 women), but both were conducted from a distance. A [2016 estimate](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061) suggested between 100 and 150.\nWhen will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?\nThis question resolves when any one of the following events occurs:\n1--A public video recording is made available that depicts a Sentinelese person legally interacting with a non-Sentinelese person (i.e. the non-Sentinelese person is not charged with an offense relating to the interaction); \n2--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has left North Sentinel Island; \n3--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has legally entered a UN member state; \n4--Two or more news sources report that there are no longer any people living on North Sentinel Island; or \n5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists. \nThe question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video).\n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10181,17 +10181,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10211,7 +10211,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nWill the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10221,17 +10221,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.\nWill the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10300,7 +10300,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n", - "numforecasts": 71, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10338,7 +10338,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 231, + "numforecasts": 236, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10356,7 +10356,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors.\nIt also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction.\nThe Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide nonjusticiable political questions. Each year it agrees to hear about 100–150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review.\nBecause justices can serve for life, potentially spending decades on the Court, vacancies are relatively rare and are considered major political events in the United States.\nAccording to [federal statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judiciary_Act_of_1869), the Court consists of the Chief Justice of the United States and eight Associate Justices. Once appointed, justices have lifetime tenure unless they resign, retire, or are removed from office.\nThe most recent vacancy arose in 2020, when on September 18, 2020, [Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg) died. [Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) to fill the vacancy that arose.\nWhen will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\nThis question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.\nIf the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 159, + "numforecasts": 161, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10385,7 +10385,7 @@ } ], "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10404,17 +10404,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 52, + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10434,7 +10434,7 @@ } ], "description": "NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030.\nSpaceX has been working on its own \"Mars\" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026.\nWill NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?\nThe resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events:\n1) A mission substantially (>30%) or wholly funded by NASA successfully returns a sample from the surface of Mars to Earth.\n2) A rocket build by SpaceX designated as \"Starship\" or clearly designated as a successor to Starship successfully lands on Mars.\nThe question will resolve positive if event 1) happens before event 2).\nThe question will resolve negatively if event 2) happens before event 1).\nIf neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNote that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it. Because the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative.\nSimilarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth.\nIt is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10443,7 +10443,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities.\n[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time.\nHow many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10470,7 +10470,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the \"New world\" had a fraction of the [population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history#/media/File:WorldPopulation.png) and [GDP](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_distribution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_Middle_East.png) of Europe. At the time it may have seemed implausible to guess that the gap would ever be overcome. However after a series of World Wars, the relative fortune of Europe declined while America --rich in resources and isolated by two oceans-- continued to grow. Ultimately, the GDP of the USA alone would be greater than that of Western Europe after WWII.\nIt may seem similarly improbable that Mars --a planet so inhospitable it is inhabited only by robots-- would ever surpass Earth. But, history is long. If a self-sustaining colony is ever founded on Mars, it would have some chance of exceeding Earth's GDP based solely on the possibility of calamity on Earth.\nWhen will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?\nThis question will resolve – on the basis of credible reporting – to December 31st of the first year in which the real GDP of Mars exceeds that of Earth.\nIf it does not resolve positive before the ending date of 3000AD, it will resolve to the upper-bound.\nIf the GDP falls into disuse, and Metaculus Admins find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.\nBecause of the dates involved in this question, it is unlikely any current Metaculus users will remain to collect points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10490,7 +10490,7 @@ } ], "description": "[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb).\nHowever, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761).\nThere is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/).\nWill detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but only if the authors of the independent observation will claim that their study indeed generally reproduces the original findings. The study must be published at least as pre-print by 2023.\nThe question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or the authors of the original study agree that there is no significant abundance of phosphine in the Venus atmosphere.\nRelated question:\n[Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/)\n", - "numforecasts": 134, + "numforecasts": 135, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10499,7 +10499,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf).\nWhen will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. \nPositive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account.\nPositive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities.\nPositive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases.\nIn case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as \">2090-10-25\". \n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10508,7 +10508,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 111, + "numforecasts": 112, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10526,7 +10526,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 globally, and 2030 for Europe, America and Canada. \nThe option for an electric vehicle is currently available in 15 US and Canadian cities, and the company expects to open this option in another 65 cities globally by the end of 2020.\nUber is also working to arrange the transfer of vehicles for its driver by offering discounts through select companies (Renault and Nissan in Europe and GM in Canada and US) and promising [$800M in support](https://nypost.com/2020/09/08/uber-vows-to-have-all-electric-cars-by-2040-help-drivers-make-switch/) through 2025 for drivers to make the switch.\nAs Hawkins from [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) writes:\n“Research suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination.” As one of the largest transportation companies and contributors to carbon emissions, taking these steps will help lower pollution and decrease the rate of global warming.\nWhen will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Uber’s own data and announcements will suffice.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10546,7 +10546,7 @@ } ], "description": "In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. \nGovernor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as:\n“including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).”\nThe [California Governor’s office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) writes as of September 23, 2020 that:\n“The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of all of California’s carbon pollution, 80 percent of smog-forming pollution and 95 percent of toxic diesel emissions – all while communities in the Los Angeles Basin and Central Valley see some of the dirtiest and most toxic air in the country.”\n[13 other American states](https://rhg.com/research/states-zero-emission-vehicles/#:~:text=Thirteen%20states%E2%80%94New%20York%2C%20Massachusetts,of%20the%20Clean%20Air%20Act) have agreed to follow California’s plans for reducing emissions by adopting their GHG standards and ZEV program under Act 177. It is possible that they might also join California in banning the sales of ICE powered cars in an effort to fight climate change. \nHowever, there are [many complaints](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/newsom-climate-plan.html) about this future transition and the threat it could bring to workers in auto manufacturing sectors, as well as other supply chain members such as companies providing fossil fuels. There are also concerns about the supporting charging infrastructure needed to accommodate such a shift, and if it would be practically feasible. \nThis is a key issue in the widespread battle between economic security and stability and climate consciousness, and could lead the way in proving or negating the validity of the argument between the two.\nWill California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?\nResolution criteria for this question will be found through reliable media sources in California or nationally, or through the Office of the Governor in California. The [official document](https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf) posted by the Governor’s Office outlines only the sales of new ZEV light duty passenger vehicles by 2035, and does not include the sale of used, non-ZEV passenger cars and trucks after 2035. If only certain counties are 100% in ZEV sales, then this question will resolve negatively as the executive order clearly states the goal of 100% ZEV sales as a state-wide plan. \nIf the definition of ZEV changes before 2035, or the executive order no longer is in place by 2035, then this question will resolve negatively. If all new sales by dealerships for light duty vehicles throughout the state are ZEV as defined by the ZEV program from 2012, then this question will resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10566,7 +10566,7 @@ } ], "description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.\nWill a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?\nThe question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.\nAn impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. \n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10606,7 +10606,7 @@ } ], "description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10615,7 +10615,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”\nIn 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.\nWhat percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.\nCountries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table\nInclusion Criteria:\nCountries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.\nSuccess Criteria:\nCountries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:\n---The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment. \n---At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality. \nEither of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.\nCarbon Neutrality Definition:\nThis question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.\nIf a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.\nIf a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. \n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10645,17 +10645,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", - "numforecasts": 940, + "numforecasts": 985, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10664,7 +10664,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nCurrently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022.\nIn case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10691,7 +10691,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Transportation contributes heavily to greenhouse gas emissions from carbon dioxide. In 2017, road transportation contributed approximately [21%](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles_en) of the EU’s carbon emissions. \nPublic transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon and the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.\nChina has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States. \nHowever, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. \nChanging the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.).\nHow many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?\nResolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2022. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nData: Numbers from 2015-2019: 2015: 0.11k, 2016: 0.83k, 2017: 0.64k, 2018: 0.91k, and 2019:1.99k\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10700,7 +10700,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations. \nThese stations are essential infrastructure required for the widespread use of electric vehicles, and remain a critical factor in EV adoption. In a 2020 survey by Castrol, they found that [64% of consumers](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mainstream-ev-adoption-5-speedbumps-to-overcome/) on average (from countries in the Asian, European, and North American regions) would buy an electric vehicle if charging infrastructure existed to support their driving habits. \nThere are currently [89,970 outlets](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) on public charging stations of every level across the United States, with California representing almost one third of that. Several other states such as Texas, Florida, Oregon, and New York are followers of California’s trend, however, the number of public outlets in the second-greatest state is only [5,151](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) in New York, less than one fifth of the number in California.\nFor people driving longer distances or living in rural areas, both EV range and charging infrastructure is essential for drawing a greater proportion of drivers to buy electric vehicles. The states with the largest number of [new EV registrations](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) in 2018 after California (256,800) were in Texas (22,600), Washington (28,400), Florida (25,200) and New York (16,600). These numbers loosely follow the number of [EV laws and incentives by state](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) as well. \nIf there is a greater push by both private corporations and public state and local governments to provide more public charging stations, then hopefully new registrations will increase as well.\nWhen will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through the U.S Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/). The number of charging outlets and stations across America can be found through a [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) that is consistently updated. Numbers for this question were drawn on the date: 10/31/20. The number of charging outlets per state can be found through this [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) that is consistently updated. Other information surrounding adoption can be found through the AFDC in maps like [this](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) for new EV registration, which is on a two year updating time lag, and [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) to look at the number of current government sponsored laws and incentives for EVs by state.\nIf these criteria are no longer available or current by the time this question resolves, then it will resolve ambiguously. To resolve positively, the number of public outlets of all levels in another state must reach the 50% level for the then current number of public outlets maintained in California at that time.\n", - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10738,7 +10738,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin) are an order of mammals found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. There are eight currently extant species of pangolin. One the [IUCN red list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUCN_Red_List), three of these ([Phillipine pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_pangolin), [Chinese pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_pangolin) and [Sunda pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_pangolin)) are listed as critically endangered, three ([Tree pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_pangolin), [Indian pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_pangolin) and [Giant pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_pangolin)) are listed as endangered and two ([Long-tailed pangolins](Long-tailed pangolin) and [Ground pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_pangolin)) are listed as vulnerable. The endangerment of pangolins is caused by a combination of [poaching](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin_trade) and deforestation.\nHow many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?\nThis will resolve at the number of currently known species of pangolin that are not classified as \"extinct\" or \"critically endangered (possibly extinct)\" by the latest version of the [IUCN Red List](https://www.iucnredlist.org/) as of the end of 2050. If new species are discovered, they will not count towards the total number.\n", - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10767,7 +10767,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n", - "numforecasts": 104, + "numforecasts": 105, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10776,7 +10776,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/library/case-for-neuropreservation/),\nNeuropreservation, quite simply, is low temperature preservation of the brain of a terminal patient. All efforts in neuropreservation are devoted to the singular purpose of preserving the brain, and only the brain, in the best possible condition allowed by present technology. The disposition of other tissue only matters inasmuch it impacts upon the condition of the brain.\nAs of writing this question, Alcor [charges a minimum](https://www.alcor.org/docs/alcor-form-schedule-a-required-costs-and-cryopreservation-fund-minimums.pdf) of $80,000 for neuropreservation, often paid with life insurance. For people purchasing life insurance for cryonics, it's important to ensure that the funding is above the minimum amount required for preservation. However, the price has changed in the past. Therefore, it's critical that cryonics enthusiasts anticipate future price changes, so that they can afford the procedure when they need it.\nMati Roy has written [a timeline of brain preservation](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) and has recorded both the [real](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics,_inflation_adjusted.png) and [nominal price of brain preservation over time](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics.png).\nWhat will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the minimum nominal price of brain preservation provided by Alcor at the beginning of 2030 in US dollars, if Alcor still exists. Otherwise, this question resolves ambiguously. Resolution is determined by a source provided by Alcor.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10786,17 +10786,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 143, + "numforecasts": 147, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10815,17 +10815,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n", - "numforecasts": 292, + "numforecasts": 296, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10881,7 +10881,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nWater has been called [the oil of space](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4), and for good reason. [Nature reports](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4) that: \nPrivate firms are increasingly tempted by the possibility of mining oxygen and hydrogen — which power rockets — from lunar ice. If that does pan out, then the Moon could become a refueling station, radically reducing the expense of space travel.\nAs an example, a lunar return mission that refueled at the Moon would cost just one-fiftieth of the price of one that brings all its fuel with it from Earth.\nThough it appears that there may be far more lunar ice than previously anticipated, extracting and utilizing ice that took many years to accumulate is not, in the (potentially very) long-term, a sustainable approach for space mission or lunar settlement resupply. Fortunately, it may not be the only option.\nA recent [Nature paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1198-9#Sec4) studying cold traps on the moon between 1 km - 1 cm in scale found that not only are cold traps roughly ~1 cm across the most numerous type, their presence has important implications: \nGiven the high loss rates due to micrometeorite impact gardening and ultraviolet photodestruction, the detection of water within the micro cold traps would imply recent accumulation. Therefore, the presence or absence of water in micro cold traps could serve as an indicator of volatile sources in the inner Solar System.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nTherefore, this question asks: When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a system must be created that can capture and make available for human use water from volatile sources in the Inner Solar System. Such a system may be a proof of concept, and not necessarily optimized, efficient, or cost-effective.\n", - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10890,7 +10890,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 per hour.\nIn terms of the USD's purchasing power, the minimum wage has been significantly higher in the past. In 1968, the minimum wage was $1.60 per hour, which in 2020 dollars would be aproximately $12.00.\nJoe Biden (presumed president-elect) has [pledged to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/).\nWhen will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?\nThe resolution will occur on the date that the increase takes effect. Any increase over $7.25 USD (not inflation-adjusted) will be a valid resolution.\nIf the minimum wage is reduced or abolished, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question will be retroactively closed 3 days before a vote in the senate which passes legislation raising the minimum wage. A vote which does not pass will not close the question. The question will then be resolved on the date the legislation takes effect. \n", - "numforecasts": 106, + "numforecasts": 109, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10899,7 +10899,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the launch of our [first satellite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1) into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed thousands of satellites around Earth and other celestial objects, and low Earth orbit has been inhabited continuously for just over [20 years](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/science/international-space-station-20-years) now.\nElon Musk wants to colonize Mars and Jeff Bezos has talked about [moving industry to space](https://www.fastcompany.com/90347364/jeff-bezos-wants-to-save-earth-by-moving-industry-to-space), but as of yet, there is still essentially no economic activity that happens (almost) exclusively in outer space. How soon is this going to change?\nWhen will 1% of humanity's Gross World Product (GWP) be produced off-Earth?\nThis question will resolve positively when there is a credible report of the total GWP of all economic activity away from Earth equaling at least 1/99th of the total GWP produced on Earth, as judged by Metaculus administrators.\nEconomic activity will be counted as being \"off-Earth\" so long as it is exclusively performed at least 100 km above the Earth's surface. A rocket launching a probe from the Earth's surface would be part of Earth's GWP, while that same probe performing asteroid mining would count as off-Earth GWP.\nAs it's fairly likely the exact date when the 1% milestone is achieved might not be knowable with certainty due to ambiguities, this question will retroactively resolve to January 1st of the year when it was deemed to have occurred.\nIf this question does not resolve positive before the ending date of 2300 AD, it will resolve to the upper bound.\nIf the GWP falls into disuse and Metaculus administrators find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.\nFor the purposes of this question...\n--- \nThe term \"Gross World Product\" will refer to humanity's total economic activity across all inhabited space, including any worlds or artificial habitats beyond Earth.\n--- \nThe word \"humanity\" will also include genetically modified or cybernetic Earth-originating organisms, emulated humans (ems), and artificial intelligences (AIs). \n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10926,7 +10926,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10935,7 +10935,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Both Microsoft and Google are working on building Quantum Computers. Google achieved [Quantum Supremecy](https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/09/20/132923/google-researchers-have-reportedly-achieved-quantum-supremacy/) in 2019. Microsoft already has a website that previews [Azure Quantum](https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/services/quantum/). Given that both companies have cloud offerings and the first Quantum Computers are going to be really expensive it makes sense to rent out compute on those computers to willing custumers of their cloud offerings.\nWhen will it be possible to buy Quantum Computing via the Cloud?\nThis question will resolve as the day on which quantum computing services can be brought via the cloud (as normal compute in cloud computing can be brought in 2020). On the date of resolution, prices for quantum compute must be openly advertised and any user must be able to sign up without first having to be on a waiting list. If these conditions are not met by the end of 2050, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10945,17 +10945,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10964,7 +10964,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10973,7 +10973,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10982,7 +10982,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -10991,7 +10991,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon, and reduce the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.\nChina has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States.\nHowever, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. This should see a large number of new registrations in Europe over the next several years. \nNorth America lags behind Europe with only [one quarter the number of registrations](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) in 2019 (560 total), and fewer registrations than the year before in 2018 (620 total). South America and India continue to consistently fall behind the United States in numbers as well. \nChanging the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers to choose outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.). \nOther Related Questions:\n[Electric Bus Registrations in Europe 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/)\nHow many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2025. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). This report should become available sometimes in 2026.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11011,7 +11011,7 @@ } ], "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11031,7 +11031,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\non Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\nWill Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?\nThis resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.\n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11040,7 +11040,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Graphcore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphcore) is a semiconductor company that develops accelerators for AI and machine learning.\nIn a [2019 interview by Wired](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/graphcore-ai-intelligence-processing-unit), Nigel Toon was asked whether Graphcore's goal ultimately is to IPO. His response:\nThat’s the path we’re shooting for, absolutely.\nWhen will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?\nThis question resolves positively as the date when Graphcore first becomes a publicly traded company. This may occur through any of the following channels:\n---Graphcore holds an IPO or a completes a direct listing \n---Graphcore is acquired by a publicly traded company \n---Graphcore completes a [reverse IPO](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversetakeover.asp) by acquiring a publicly traded company \n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore is aqcuired by a private company. \n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore ceases operations before going public.\n--- \nThis question resolves as \">2035-11-10\" if it fails to resolve positively before 2035-11-10. \n", - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11088,17 +11088,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\nStephen W Snow countered,\nMy reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\nWill the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11118,7 +11118,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 271, + "numforecasts": 273, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11138,7 +11138,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 192, + "numforecasts": 202, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11147,7 +11147,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 313, + "numforecasts": 316, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11167,7 +11167,7 @@ } ], "description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.\nWill Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?\nWill FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?\nThe question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. \n", - "numforecasts": 401, + "numforecasts": 411, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11176,7 +11176,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n", - "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasts": 158, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11185,7 +11185,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, and resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Due to community spread of the virus throughout the United States and other countries, there has been interest in developing a vaccine to hopefully stop the spread of the virus.\nIn November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more than 90% effective according to early trial data. Both vaccines require two doses per person. Government officials expect there to be 40 million doses from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine available in 2020 if both vaccines are approved, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. [(Washington Post)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/) By the end of 2021, Pfizer estimates it will be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, and Moderna estimates it will be able to produce 1 billion doses. [(The Guardian)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show)\nBased on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4.\nWhen will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11195,17 +11195,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", - "numforecasts": 454, + "numforecasts": 473, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11214,7 +11214,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n", - "numforecasts": 99, + "numforecasts": 101, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11223,7 +11223,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasts": 159, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11232,7 +11232,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11271,17 +11271,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management). (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)\nWill any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?\nIf any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading))\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\nThey need to be an executive for a listed company in a major index\n---S&P500 \n---FTSE100 \n---DAX30 \n---CAC40 \n---FTSE MIB \n---Nikkei 225 \nTheir imprisonment must start before 2026\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11299,7 +11299,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 639, + "numforecasts": 653, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11317,7 +11317,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11326,7 +11326,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "According to [STAT](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/), early results from an AstraZeneca trial showed 70% efficacy. But that average hid a discrepancy:\nTwo full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741.\nThis half dose-full dose regimen was [administered by accident](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-dosing/dosing-error-turns-into-lucky-punch-for-astrazeneca-and-oxford-idUSKBN28327Q), in a non-random fashion, therefore violating the randomization assumption of an RCT.\nBecause of this failure in study design, the [CEO of AstraZeneca told Bloomberg News](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-26/astra-likely-to-run-fresh-global-covid-vaccine-trial-ceo-says) that the company wants to run \"an additional global trial\" to \"confirm the 90% efficacy rate that the shot showed in a portion of an existing trial\".\n[According to the WHO](https://www.who.int/influenza_vaccines_plan/resources/Session4_VEfficacy_VEffectiveness.PDF), vaccine efficacy is defined as:\n% reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions (eg RCT)\nHow effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZeneca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?\nThis question resolves after a reliable media report of the final study results of a 2nd RCT of the AstraZeneca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. It resolves based on the effectiveness reported for the most effective treatment arm.\nThis question closes retroactively 24hrs prior to the first interim results being reported. If no interim results are reported, this question closes 24hrs prior to when the final results are reported.\nIf no RCT is conducted or the final results of an RCT are not reported by the resolve date of this question, it resolves ambiguous.\nIf multiple RCTs are conducted, this question resolves based on the one for which the first reliable media report of the final study results. \n", - "numforecasts": 167, + "numforecasts": 169, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11335,7 +11335,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires)\nWith an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world.\nTo continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png)\nHow large will Monaco be in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the land area (in hectares) of Monaco as of 1 January 2035, according to the most recent estimate published as of that date.\nIf Monaco ceases to exist as a sovereign state before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11344,7 +11344,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet),\nDespite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence that anyone has cloned human embryos. [...]\nFrom a technical perspective, cloning humans and other primates is more difficult than in other mammals. One reason is that two proteins essential to cell division, known as spindle proteins, are located very close to the chromosomes in primate eggs. Consequently, removal of the egg's nucleus to make room for the donor nucleus also removes the spindle proteins, interfering with cell division. In other mammals, such as cats, rabbits and mice, the two spindle proteins are spread throughout the egg. So, removal of the egg's nucleus does not result in loss of spindle proteins. In addition, some dyes and the ultraviolet light used to remove the egg's nucleus can damage the primate cell and prevent it from growing.\nA prominent historical figure is defined as someone who is,\n--- \nCurrently considered dead according to credible media\n--- \nHas an English Wikipedia entry that has existed for at least 15 years before the birth of the human clone\nWhen will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?\nThis question will resolve on the date of birth of any clone of a prominent historical figure, as determined by credible media.\n", - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 19, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11353,7 +11353,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n", - "numforecasts": 405, + "numforecasts": 409, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11363,17 +11363,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11402,7 +11402,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052)\nData of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html).\nWhen will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?\nResolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp.\nThe question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase.\nResolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11422,7 +11422,7 @@ } ], "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 604, + "numforecasts": 610, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11450,17 +11450,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.\nWill China land the next person on the Moon?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.\nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11469,7 +11469,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11487,7 +11487,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nThis question mirrors [a question I wrote for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/). I created this question because it has a longer timeline, and therefore can potentially be informed by [the recent Deepmind protein folding breakthrough](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphafold-a-solution-to-a-50-year-old-grand-challenge-in-biology). It's also a good test for [Eroom's law](https://www.theifod.com/erooms-law-explaining-the-decline-in-drug-discovery/), the observation that drugs have gotten exponentially more difficult to develop over time.\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2035, as reported by the FDA or credible media. In case the FDA is abolished before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11497,17 +11497,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), \"about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden\". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists.\nSome other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.\nWill the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?\nThis question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of:\n--- \nthe 2020 election was \"rigged\"\n--- \nthe 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified \"unfair\")\n--- \nDonald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president\n--- \nJoe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president \n--- \nDonald Trump won in 2020\n--- \nJoe Biden lost in 2020\nThis question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.\nNovember is defined according to UTC \n", - "numforecasts": 170, + "numforecasts": 172, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11516,7 +11516,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n", - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11543,7 +11543,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics.\n[The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) but has been static since the 1980s. [This is consistent with most women's athletics records](https://sportsscientists.com/2016/08/world-records-fossils/) and is likely related to the systemtic doping from that era.\nIt remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.\nWhat will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?\nThe official winning time of the Women's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous\nRelated questions:\n[Men's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/)\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11563,7 +11563,7 @@ } ], "description": "Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/).\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\nU.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the \"low hanging fruit has been picked.\" Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the \"s-curve\" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor)\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\nWe have not seen 3% productivity growth in USA for many years. Predicting such growth is highly speculative at this point since there are way too many uncertainties. Moreover assuming such growth entails large investment amounts not just in R&D but also downstream. I fear US economy will see itself constrained by China worldwide expansion. Protectionist tendencies and the emergence of formidable Chinese competitors will constrain the development of US companies making it more difficult to achieve high productivity enhancements. In other words, the world economic context will change to such a degree that we will have to revise all our economic and business hypothesis derived from past experiences and extrapolated from futuristic assumptions embedded in history.\nWill the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Alberto Forchielli is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11583,7 +11583,7 @@ } ], "description": "Robert D Atkinson and Jason W Galbraith summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/687/).\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\nIncreasingly a large number of pundits and scholars, including Eric Brynjolfsson, Martin Ford, Andrew McAfee, and Vivek Wadhwa, have argued that technology is rapidly advancing and will soon lead large scale displacement of workers with technology. These views have rapidly become the prevailing wisdom regarding emerging technology with the result being that voters and policy makers are now more likely to resist technological change and automation, rather than embrace it. But the \"robots are killing our jobs\" proponents miss the fact that automation lowers prices (or raises wages) which in turn spurs increased demand for goods and services, and hence labor. As such there is no reason to believe that either unemployment or the share of adults in the workforce will decline in any significantly way going forward.\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\nThe United States will certainly experience a recession in the next six years. As a result, the workforce participation rate will fall below 60 percent and this time, automation and de-industrialization will keep it there at least through June 2025.\nWill the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent??\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Jason W Galbraith is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11592,7 +11592,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble)\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2030?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2030?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2030 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 44, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11612,7 +11612,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 89, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11621,7 +11621,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),\nGross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP\nIn the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&D. What will that number be in 2030?\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?\nThis question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11641,7 +11641,7 @@ } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election),\nBefore, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was \"the most secure in American history.\" Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was \"no evidence of widespread fraud\" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition.\nWill the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?\nFor the purpose of this question, the \"losing party\" is defined as the party whose presidential candidate is projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves positively if ANY of the following come true following the 2024 presidential election,\n--- \nThe losing candidate states that they consider the election result \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say a close synonym of \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", and therefore a dispute over whether the word choice counts for positive resolution, then the following method of resolution will be used: if [thesaurus.com](http://thesaurus.com) lists \"fraud\", \"fraudulent\", or \"rigged\" as a synonym of the word, and at least one moderator agrees that it is a close synonym, then it counts for positive resolution.\n--- \nThe losing candidate refuses to concede two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours.\n--- \nFewer than 20% of congressional members of the losing party believe that their candidate lost the election as determined by credible media two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting the opposite-party candidate to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. By comparison, on December 7th 2020, [just 27 congressional Republicans acknowledge Biden’s win](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-who-won-election-republicans-congress/2020/12/04/1a1011f6-3650-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) according to the Washington Post.\n--- \nA survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey participants who are members of the losing party state that the election was \"probably\" or \"definitely\" free and fair in the most recent such survey following projections from both the AP and Fox News. The relevant survey for 2020 can be found [here](https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/).\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nFor the purpose of this question, a network is said to have \"projected\" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of \"projected\" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection. \n", - "numforecasts": 212, + "numforecasts": 213, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11681,7 +11681,7 @@ } ], "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11691,17 +11691,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 114, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11721,7 +11721,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.\nAs of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. \nThroughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)) parties. \nThe Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) in [the 2016 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election) Additionally, the Democratic Party has had two female nominees for vice president: [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) in [the 1984 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election) and [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) in [the 2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) As of December 2020, Harris is the vice president-elect, and is expected to be sworn in as vice president in January 2021. \nThe Republican Party has never had a female nominee for president, but has had one female nominee for vice president: [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) in [the 2008 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election).\nWill the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?\nFor a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts.\nIf there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11757,7 +11757,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n", - "numforecasts": 145, + "numforecasts": 149, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11766,7 +11766,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 459, + "numforecasts": 461, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11775,7 +11775,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", - "numforecasts": 192, + "numforecasts": 195, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11784,7 +11784,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n", - "numforecasts": 215, + "numforecasts": 217, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11793,7 +11793,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n", - "numforecasts": 204, + "numforecasts": 207, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11813,7 +11813,7 @@ } ], "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 186, + "numforecasts": 187, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11833,7 +11833,7 @@ } ], "description": "President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a [Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans](https://joebiden.com/healthcare/). It [seems likely](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option.\nWill the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. \nA public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 133, + "numforecasts": 134, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11853,7 +11853,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.\nIf the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 218, + "numforecasts": 225, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11882,7 +11882,7 @@ } ], "description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n", - "numforecasts": 111, + "numforecasts": 113, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11902,7 +11902,7 @@ } ], "description": "One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon.\nWill India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. \nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. \n“The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of India for this to resolve positively. An Indian citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11931,7 +11931,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.\nWhat will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics.\n", - "numforecasts": 170, + "numforecasts": 171, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11941,17 +11941,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 219, + "numforecasts": 233, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11969,7 +11969,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n", - "numforecasts": 93, + "numforecasts": 95, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -11989,7 +11989,7 @@ } ], "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n", - "numforecasts": 275, + "numforecasts": 277, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12034,7 +12034,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 108, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12090,7 +12090,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Artificial Intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is causing job losses in many sectors. While the most obvious jobs being lost are related to easily automatizable tasks in factories [[1](http://(https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/understanding-job-loss-predictions-from-artificial-intelligence/))], [many expect](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/08/self-driving-cars-will-destroy-a-lot-of-jobs-theyll-also-create-a-lot/) large numbers of jobs to be lost in the transportation sector in the coming years due to self-driving cars. However, not all job losses are related to lower class workers, [but also to higher class such as lawyers](https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/02/09/will-a-i-put-lawyers-out-of-business/). These trends affect all industrialized nations. The German unemployment rate has, however, been [decreasing steadily for a number of years](http://(https://www.statista.com/statistics/227005/unemployment-rate-in-germany/)).\nWhat will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?\n---Numbers will be taken from [the Arbeitsagentur (the Federal Employment Agency)](https://www.arbeitsagentur.de/en/welcome). For instance, [the 2017 numbers are available in the 2020 report](https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/DE/Statischer-Content/Statistiken/Themen-im-Fokus/Berufe/Generische-Publikationen/Broschuere-Akademiker.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4), page 90. A total of 356000 people with a law degree in the workforce, and 4600 unemployed, thus giving a rate of 1.3%. \n", - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12099,7 +12099,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May. However, with the winter season entering full gear, holiday retail sales are expected to increase [3.6 to 5.2%](https://nrf.com/research/monthly-economic-review-december-2020) over 2019 with total sales estimated between $755B and 766B, which should hopefully increase the ability for retailers to begin paying full rent once more. \nAs of mid-May 2020, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report. By the second quarter, it fell only 2% to [15%](https://www.statista.com/statistics/194054/us-office-vacancy-rate-forecasts-from-2010/#:~:text=Office%20vacancy%20rates%20in%20the%20U.S.%202019%2D2020&text=In%20the%20United%20States%2C%20vacancy,the%20impact%20of%20the%20coronavirus.).\nIn May, the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:\nCommercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively. \nAccording to a [National Association of Realtors survey from May 2020](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%. \n[Recent data](https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2020-real-estate-forecast-summit-2020-consensus-forecast-12-10-2020.pdf) from November through December, released from the National Association of Realtors Survey, indicates that office vacancy rates will fall 3% heading into 2021, while retail vacancy rates will continue to increase to 11%. Industrial and multi-family vacancy rates are predicted to stay level at 5% and 6% respectively, while hotels experience a 2% drop.\nWhat will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).\n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12127,17 +12127,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, the US unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April, but has since decreased to 6.7% by November. \nHeading into winter, where outdoor social distancing becomes more difficult, and the holiday season draws people towards socializing with family and friends, COVID-19 deaths peaked over [300,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) with over [2,500](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths) new deaths a day by December 16th. Rising cases and failure to social distance can [push cities back into lockdown](https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/), causing economic duress and a potential return to higher unemployment rates like we saw in Q2 of 2020. \nHowever, as the new vaccine makes its way across America and herd immunity becomes an attainable goal, more people should be able to return to work. As the economy opens and consumption increases, putting money back into the hands of corporations, [employment should increase](https://news.umich.edu/u-m-economists-see-us-growth-slowing-until-coronavirus-vaccine-becomes-broadly-available/).\nFor the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly unemployment occur within Q1?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12156,17 +12156,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18999999999999995, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. \nThe effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. \n[Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click):\nFor both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day.\nWill scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?\nQuestion resolves \"Yes\" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific literature supports the claim that delaying the second dose (booster) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines beyond their initial schedule probably saves or would have saved lives? \nThe relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster. \nQuestion will resolve \"No\" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality.\nQuestion receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for \"Yes\" or \"No\" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall.\n", - "numforecasts": 147, + "numforecasts": 153, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12175,7 +12175,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12193,7 +12193,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge.\nTwo questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/)\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous.\nFor athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. \n", - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12223,17 +12223,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 230, + "numforecasts": 241, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12242,7 +12242,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are \"probable healthcare-associated infections\".\nIn the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?\n--- \nEstimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.\n--- \nResolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).\n--- \nIf no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.\n--- \nEstimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. \n", - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12251,7 +12251,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12260,7 +12260,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A definition courtesy of [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA):\nAn initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program.\nA falling number of initial jobless claims is generally interpreted as indicating an improving economic situation, and a rising number vice versa. Before 2020-03-21, initial jobless claims had been below 300k for over 5 years, or 263 consecutive weeks. In the data series going back to 1967, the figure had never exceeded 700k.\nInitial claims for the week ending 2020-03-21 were 3.3MM, 11.7x the previous week's figure and 4.7x the previous record set in 1982. And the following week saw claims more than double to 6.8MM. Weekly initial claims have been mostly falling since then.\nWhen will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?\nThis prediction resolves when the US Department of Labor reports a seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims lower than 300,000. Data are to be found here: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA)\nThe resolution uses the \"observation date,\" which is the Saturday before the report is released. So if a report is released 2021-02-03 for the week ending 2021-01-30, the resolution date is 2021-01-30. \n", - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12320,7 +12320,7 @@ } ], "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", - "numforecasts": 44, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12329,7 +12329,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.\nWhen will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?\nTo qualify as a \"top\", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.\nThis question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.\nIf QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.\nIf the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \nEdit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. \n", - "numforecasts": 98, + "numforecasts": 101, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12427,7 +12427,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory.\nMMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics.\nWill a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?\nThis question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true:\nA. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic.\nB. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves)\nThis question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is \"for\" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12436,7 +12436,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 166, + "numforecasts": 169, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12465,7 +12465,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", - "numforecasts": 185, + "numforecasts": 187, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12494,7 +12494,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the [\"garrison\" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. \nThe Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and \"rivers\" and \"seas\" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History). The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. \nUnusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of \"rivers of mercury\". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. \nThe risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor of China is presumably buried - is yet to be excavated, although it seems more likely that the Chinese government is waiting until the resources and technology are available to preserve the mausoleum when it is excavated (a range of reasons are given [here](https://www.travelchinaguide.com/attraction/shaanxi/xian/terra_cotta_army/mausoleum_2.htm)).\nWhen will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?\nThis question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). \nThis will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12514,7 +12514,7 @@ } ], "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n", - "numforecasts": 81, + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12534,7 +12534,7 @@ } ], "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", - "numforecasts": 517, + "numforecasts": 519, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12543,7 +12543,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US expects to see an increase in the age of its labor force as more workers put off full time retirement at the traditional age of 65. Slowing population growth amongst American citizens, as well as declining societal support for seniors, work together to increase the median age of the average worker in the US labor force. \nIn 2019, the median age for employment in the US was 42.3, up from 42.1 in 2011. However, as the [struggles surrounding social security](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/12/business/social-security-shortfall-2020.html) rise, both from higher average life expectancies and and a growing elderly population, the US could see an increasingly older workforce. \nBarring the influence of population growth, the difference between the number of employed workers ages 16-19 and 65+ have increased from just over 2,000k workers to over 5,000k from 2011 to 2019, a trend that supports the slow growth of the median age. Although, according to a [research paper](https://siepr.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/Do.older_.workers.squeeze.out_.younger.workers_2.pdf) from Stanford, the age of the workforce does not necessarily influence or restrict entry into the workforce by younger workers.\nWhat will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 27, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12606,7 +12606,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. \nIn 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.\n“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”\nIn case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods. \nMoreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).\nWhen will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).\nWhen unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.\n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12642,7 +12642,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gender based pay gap has long existed as an issue across the US. Across all professions, levels of seniority, and time spent working, women made only [$0.81 to even man’s dollar](https://www.payscale.com/data/gender-pay-gap). Up 2% from 2019, and 7% from 2015, this gap is continuing to slowly close. It is estimated that without gender based pay discrimination and inequality, the natural gap would exist at approximately 98%. \nConsidering only individuals who work full time, ages 15 and greater, the gap is actually smaller, with rates in 2019 at [almost 83%](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2020/demo/p60-270/figure5.pdf). Across the country, women are consistently employed in part time jobs at rates much higher than men, a significant factor in the continuation of these pay differneces. [Working part time fuels the pay gap](https://www.epi.org/publication/part-time-pay-penalty/) and general gender inequality by decreasing hourly earnings below that of full-time workers, and also through the denial of employment benefits.\nWhat will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the [United States Census Bureau from Figure 5](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html) (as of 12/20). Figure 5 is labeled as \"Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio and Median Earnings of Full-Time, Year-Round Workers 15 Years and Older by Sex: 1960 to 2019.\" Historical data is also available from 1959 onward. Predictions should be represented as the a ratio between 0 and 1.\n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12652,17 +12652,26 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", - "numforecasts": 180, + "numforecasts": 197, + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) \nAs of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12671,7 +12680,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", - "numforecasts": 222, + "numforecasts": 225, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12700,7 +12709,7 @@ } ], "description": "The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023.\nThe \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).\nWill the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?\nThis question resolves \"yes\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\nThis question resolves \"no\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12729,7 +12738,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring entities (166 countries, plus Hong Kong) from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. The global average is 5.44.\nThe numerical scores are also grouped into 4 categories:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nWhat will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?\nThis prediction resolves as the raw, unweighted arithmetic mean of all scores as assigned by The Economist for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n", - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12738,7 +12747,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered \"Full democracies.\"\nThe 4 categories are:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nHow many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?*\nThis prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as \"Full democracies\" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12776,7 +12785,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", - "numforecasts": 187, + "numforecasts": 188, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12814,7 +12823,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria Foundation was the most funded charity, with $1.1 million; followed by GiveWell, with $837,000.\nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nA charity is considered to exist at the date of whichever of the following conditions occurs first:\n1--The charity becomes a legally registered entity in at least one country. For the purposes of this question, a \"charity\" does not have to be a non-profit. (For example, an LLC that receives donations counts as a \"charity\".) \n2--The charity can receive public donations. (For example, a few organizations have been able to receive donations through the Centre for Effective Altruism before achieving registered charity status.) \nEdge cases:\n---If a charity founded in or before 2020 changes its name in 2021 or later, it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities where each original charity existed prior to 2021, then it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities, at least one of which was founded after 2020, then it is considered NOT to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity that was founded in 2020 spins off a separate entity in 2021 or later, then the new entity is considered to have existed in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12823,7 +12832,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12832,7 +12841,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 95, + "numforecasts": 107, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12841,7 +12850,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12850,7 +12859,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy. In 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, [the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see previous Metaculus question here)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/). \nHowever, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So:\nHow many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?\nResolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time.\n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasts": 81, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12859,7 +12868,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020. \nOne Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities.\nAs of January 2021, [the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.](https://www.census.gov/popclock/)\nYou can view [historical US population data since 1935 here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Vital_statistics)\nWhen will there be at least one billion Americans?\nThis question resolves as the earliest date when at least one billion persons are estimated to live in the United States, according to the US Census Bureau.\nIf the question does not resolve before January 1, 2121, it resolves as \"After January 1, 2121.\"\nIf no estimate from the Census Bureau is available (or an estimate from an equivalent department of the US government), another credible source, such as the CIA World Factbook or United Nations will be used. This question resolves when any of these sources estimate that at least one billion persons live in the United States. If any of the listed sources cease to exist before the question resolves, Metaculus administrators may select new credible sources of information.\nThis question tracks the resident population (not just US citizens) of every state in the US, as well as territories within the contiguous US. In 2021, this means the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia, and the various American Indian reservations, but not Puerto Rico, American Samoa, etc.\n[Emulated people](https://ageofem.com/) shall be counted if they are included in the Census Bureau's typical (default) estimates of US residency. \n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 71, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12868,7 +12877,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that \"basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society\". \nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.\nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.\nWhat will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?\nThis question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.\nIf there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. \n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12877,7 +12886,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12886,7 +12895,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase.\nWhen enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing improvement to be sure, but still well within the ≥1 logMAR score region considered legally blind.\nHow good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a retinal implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12895,7 +12904,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12904,7 +12913,16 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", - "numforecasts": 120, + "numforecasts": 128, + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAccording to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. \nIf labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. \nSince the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.\nHow many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.\n", + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12913,7 +12931,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities that have the greatest impact per marginal donation.\nGiveWell tracks how much money it moves to recommended charities. For instance, GiveWell [moved $152 million](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/) in 2019.\nHow much money will GiveWell move in 2031?\nIf GiveWell does not exist, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell does not report its money moved in 2031 and this information is not publicly accessible, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nFor this question, money moved equals the amount that can confidently be attributed to GiveWell's recommendations (in [the 2019 post](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/), \"headline money moved\" rather than \"best guess of total money directed to charities\").\n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12922,7 +12940,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "“In economics, the [Gini coefficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient#:~:text=The%20Gini%20coefficient%20is%20a,from%20a%20totally%20equal%20distribution.) (/ˈdʒiːni/ JEE-nee), sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. It was developed by the Italian statistician and sociologist Corrado Gini and published in his 1912 paper Variability and Mutability (Italian: Variabilità e mutabilità).”\nUsed to measure a country’s income inequality across the globe, the Gini Index has recently been appropriated by the ACS (American Community Services) to measure income inequality between households across the states and territories of the United States. [The index](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/acs-1year.html#:~:text=The%20Gini%20index%20is%20a,has%20all%20of%20the%20income.) ranges from 0 to 1, with complete equality at 0 and complete inequality at 1. Currently, most states and territories lie between the [0.4 and 0.5](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf) mark, with several notable exceptions above the 0.5 mark including Puerto Rico, New York, Connecticut, and Washington D.C.\nBy 2018, income inequality in the US was the [worst out of all the G7 nations](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/6-facts-about-economic-inequality-in-the-u-s/) with a Gini coefficient of .434. With the onset of the global Coronavirus pandemic in 2020, these inequalities have grown even greater.\n“Low-income populations are more exposed to the health risks and more likely to experience job losses and declines in well-being. These effects are even more concentrated in economically disadvantaged minorities. The pandemic is not only exacerbated by the deprivations and vulnerabilities of those left behind by rising inequality but its fallout is [pushing inequality higher.](https://www.brookings.edu/research/tackling-the-inequality-pandemic-is-there-a-cure/)” \nPredictions should represent the total number of US states and territories with reported Gini Indices above 0.5 as calculated by the US Census Bureau. \nHow many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data is available from the ACS between 2018 and 2019, and general Gini Index information on a country wide level is also available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?type=shaded&view=map&year=1967) with historical data reaching back to the 1960’s.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution for this question will be provided through the United States Census Bureau and their [annual report on household income](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.html). It will come from their 2025 annual report, for which an example report from 2019 can be found [here](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf).\n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12940,7 +12958,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [EIA recently reported](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that US crude oil production is expected to stay level throughout 2021 from its current level at the end of 2020. \n“The U.S. crude oil production forecast reflects EIA’s expectations that annual global petroleum demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels (101.5 million b/d in 2019) through at least 2021. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum will average 92.9 million b/d in 2020 and 98.8 million b/d in 2021.”\nIf demand continues to remain low, the number of rigs needed to provide crude oil will lower as well. Over the last 12 months, from February 7, 2020 to February 5, 2021, the number of rigs in the US [fell by 398 to a total of just 392](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview), representing a drop of over 50%. \nAs the market for oil begins the process of rebalancing, and as prices subsequently rise, we should see an increase in the number of rigs in the US back to pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWhen will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data can also be found [here](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from [Baker Hughes rig count](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview).\n", - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12960,7 +12978,7 @@ } ], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, + "numforecasts": 94, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12987,7 +13005,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the tournament resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "numforecasts": 105, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -12996,7 +13014,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2022-01-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2022-01-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the December 2020 values the 2022-01-14 values.\n", - "numforecasts": 121, + "numforecasts": 124, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13005,7 +13023,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2022-01-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 118, + "numforecasts": 123, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13014,7 +13032,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", - "numforecasts": 100, + "numforecasts": 104, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13023,7 +13041,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 100, + "numforecasts": 102, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13052,7 +13070,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", - "numforecasts": 122, + "numforecasts": 124, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13061,7 +13079,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n", - "numforecasts": 83, + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13070,7 +13088,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [United States of America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) is a North American country that was established on July 4, 1776. The first [President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) was George Washington, and Donald John Trump is the 45th and current President.\nAlthough it may seem hard to imagine a future where there is no President of the United States for an extended period of time, political systems and the fates of nations change over time.\nUntil now, there have only been [minor gaps of a few days](https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-longest-time-the-United-States-has-gone-without-a-president) between the end of one president's term and the swearing in of the next.\nHow many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be, until that office remains vacant for a period of three consecutive months?\nThe question will resolve after the first span of three consecutive months where the office of the President of the United States is vacant, retroactively to the time at which the office became vacant. The time of resolution will be determined by the judgement of the Metaculus moderators on the basis of reliable news reports.\nIf the chief executive office is renamed, such that there is no longer a President of the United States, but there is still a single chief executive with the same or broadly similar powers and responsibilities, this will not trigger resolution. The aim of the question is to identify the date when there is no longer a single chief executive officer of the US.\nThe question shall track presidents who are democratically elected, or those appointed through the constitutional line of succession. If the US constitution is amended, such that presidents no longer have term limits or are appointed by other methods, the question will include those presidents, so long as they hold their power legally (defined by the contemporaneous constitution). \n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13090,7 +13108,7 @@ } ], "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n", - "numforecasts": 192, + "numforecasts": 194, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13099,7 +13117,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 108, + "numforecasts": 109, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13108,7 +13126,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 140, + "numforecasts": 142, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13117,7 +13135,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 96, + "numforecasts": 102, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13126,7 +13144,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13135,7 +13153,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 111, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13144,7 +13162,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\n", - "numforecasts": 92, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13153,7 +13171,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "numforecasts": 103, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13163,17 +13181,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.\nWill Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?\n2050 World Cup is included to this resolution. \nFIFA World Cup is considered the official tournament hosted under FIFA.\nIf any World Cup prior of 2050 is moved after 2050 it does not count.\n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13182,7 +13200,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 287, + "numforecasts": 317, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13191,7 +13209,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 167, + "numforecasts": 189, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13211,7 +13229,7 @@ } ], "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 426, + "numforecasts": 429, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13221,17 +13239,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 163, + "numforecasts": 166, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13240,7 +13258,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/health-wellness/article/3103054/freezing-bodies-reanimation-china-and-why-countrys),\nThe Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is the only cryonics research centre in China and one of only four such institutes in the world. The centres provide cryonic suspension: preserving bodies at extremely low temperatures with the hope of one day “reviving” them. But Yinfeng’s research goes further, and has the potential to revolutionise organ transplant, body-part reattachment and other medical treatments.\nAccording to the Oregon Cryonics page on [terminology](http://www.oregoncryo.com/terminology.html), \nWe refer to a body or brain that we are trying to preserve as a patient.\nAs of September 27th 2020, the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is storing 10 patients.\nHow many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?\nThis question resolves as the number of patients stored by the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute as of the most recent media or official report published before 2026. If no such report is published after or during 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case the organization changes its name, this question resolves according to the new organization, which is its successor. In the case the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute goes bankrupt or ceases to exist, this question resolves as the number of patients they stored before they stopped existing, if a report was published after or during 2024.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13249,7 +13267,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019.\nAlthough only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.\nWhen will the next interstellar object be discovered?\nThis question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [\"I\" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available \"[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)\" data, this question resolves when the formal \"interstellar\" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before 12/31/2030, this question resolves as \">12/31/30.\"\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13258,7 +13276,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%) amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 95, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13267,7 +13285,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13276,7 +13294,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 92, + "numforecasts": 94, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13285,7 +13303,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (for a description of 'domain knowledge' in the context of Montezuma's Revenge, see [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 138, + "numforecasts": 145, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13294,7 +13312,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13303,7 +13321,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2021 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 96, + "numforecasts": 98, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13312,7 +13330,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 95, + "numforecasts": 98, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13321,7 +13339,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 125, + "numforecasts": 130, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13330,7 +13348,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2026-12-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2026-12-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O-NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2026-12-14.\n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 112, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13339,7 +13357,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", - "numforecasts": 305, + "numforecasts": 323, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13348,7 +13366,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", - "numforecasts": 97, + "numforecasts": 105, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13357,7 +13375,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 167, + "numforecasts": 170, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13366,7 +13384,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 93, + "numforecasts": 97, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13375,7 +13393,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 77, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13393,7 +13411,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13402,7 +13420,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13411,7 +13429,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 27, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13420,7 +13438,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13429,7 +13447,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13438,7 +13456,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13447,7 +13465,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", - "numforecasts": 175, + "numforecasts": 182, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13457,17 +13475,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.\nAs Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.\nA key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.\nHere are some articles describing these issues:\n---[Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) \n---[The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation) \n---[Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707) \nWill none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify.\nThis question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following:\n---Donald Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Eric Trump \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", - "numforecasts": 166, + "numforecasts": 171, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13516,7 +13534,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n", - "numforecasts": 212, + "numforecasts": 218, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13525,7 +13543,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13534,7 +13552,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13543,7 +13561,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13552,7 +13570,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13561,7 +13579,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13570,7 +13588,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 77, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13579,7 +13597,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years.\nYet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called \"third-party candidates\" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%.\nWhat percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?\nThis resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13599,7 +13617,7 @@ } ], "description": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)\nWill a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis prediction resolves positive if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 5% or more of the national popular vote, and negative if one does not.\n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13619,7 +13637,7 @@ } ], "description": "During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. \nThere have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. \nThe above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd).\nWill Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?\nThis question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes](https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/housingdata) for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for \"S.F. Bay Area\" is <= $1.045mm\n", - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13637,7 +13655,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) are a means by which the President can govern via their executive powers. They are often seen as a way for the President to circumvent Congress in order to achieve their policy agenda. Some recent Executive Orders by Trump include:\n---[Trump's travel ban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13780) \n---[Revival of the National Space Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Space_Council#Revival) \nHow many [Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) will President Biden have issued, on a weekly basis, prior to noon on January 20 2025 and while he is president?\nHere are the last seven presidents for comparison:\nCarter: 1.53 E.O./week\nReagan: 0.91 E.O./week\nBush I: 0.80 E.O./week\nClinton: 0.87 E.O./week\nBush II: 0.70 E.O./week\nObama: 0.65 E.O./week\nTrump: ~1,00 E.0./week (as of 14-Jan-21)\nHow many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?\nThe [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) will provide the final numbers. This question resolves on January 31th 2025 at noon, at the latest (Federal Register numbers can take a few days after the White House’s statements).\nRelated Questions \n---[How much will President Trump govern by decree](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1430/how-much-will-president-trump-govern-by-decree/) \n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13657,7 +13675,7 @@ } ], "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", - "numforecasts": 163, + "numforecasts": 165, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13697,7 +13715,7 @@ } ], "description": "India is a middle-income country [ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020.\nIn 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently [estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October/weo-report?c=534,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PPPSH,PCPIPCH,&sy=1980&ey=2020&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1).\nWill India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021?\nResolution will be based on the [Federal Reserve Economic Data series NAEXKP01INQ657S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=NAEXKP01INQ657S,), which shows seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter growth in India's GDP at constant 2015 prices. The question will resolve positive if all three data points for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2021 are positive. It will resolve negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 44, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13707,17 +13725,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "According to [earthquaketrack.com](http://earthquaketrack.com) the largest quake this past year: 6.6 in Néa Anatolí, Crete, Greece\nThe area is geologically active an had an estimated 8-8.5 earthquake in 365 A.D.\nThe 365 Crete earthquake occurred at about sunrise on 21 July 365 in the Eastern Mediterranean, with an assumed epicenter near Crete Geologists today estimate the undersea earthquake to have been a magnitude 8.0 or higher. It caused widespread destruction in central and southern Greece, northern Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, Sicily, and Spain. On Crete, nearly all towns were destroyed.\nThe Crete earthquake was followed by a tsunami which devastated the southern and eastern coasts of the Mediterranean, particularly Libya, Alexandria and the Nile Delta, killing thousands and hurling ships 3 km (1.9 mi) inland.\nWill there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?\nThis question will resolve if by Dec. 31 2021 an earthquake measuring 7.0 or larger occurring either underneath or within 80 Kilometres from sea shores of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, being defined as a line running from Southern Sicily thru Malta to Misrata Libya. This will include the whole Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea, and Leviathan Sea.\nEarthquake must be verified by either: European-Mediterranean Seismological Center Earthquake Track\n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasts": 39, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13737,7 +13755,7 @@ } ], "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n", - "numforecasts": 171, + "numforecasts": 175, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13746,7 +13764,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The World Economic Forum and The Commons Project Foundation are launching [CommonPass](https://commonpass.org/), an app intended as \"a secure and verifiable way [for travelers] to document their health status as they travel and cross borders,\" including COVID-19 vaccination and testing information. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good); professor Douglas Kamerow of the British Medical Journal [fears a new class divide,](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n85) but would be reassured \"if some government agencies or WHO were leading this activity\"; and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be, but major airline alliances are already signed on and the system is in the early deployment phase.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official CommonPass, ICAO, or IATA statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13764,7 +13782,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.).\nSince then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/).\nWhen, if ever, will people <18 years old vote in national elections in the US?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President.\nOnly [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections are not relevant to the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13773,7 +13791,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Currently, [14 countries](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) allow voting by young people with no major restrictions (as of Jan. 16, 2021). Another 14 countries allow some citizens <18 years of age suffrage with major qualifications, usually related to marriage, employment, or type of election.\nA number of [movements or proposals to allow minors to vote](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/us/politics/voting-age.html) are active or have been proposed in dozens of countries as of 2021.\nHow many countries will allow people younger than 18 to vote, with no major conditions, in 2026?\nBroad enfranchisement, with no major restrictions, of the chosen age group in a country is required for that country to be added to the total. Restrictions that require marriage (as in Hungary and Indonesia) or employment (as in Slovenia and Croatia) or restrict <18 voters to local elections only/European elections only (as in Scotland or Belgium) disqualify a country for purposes of this question. \nRestrictions commonly applied to voting adults do not disqualify a country; it's okay if <18 voters need ID, or must be a citizen, or have no criminal convictions, etc.\nVoting age must be lowered at least ten months below 18 years old to count; e.g. 17-year-old suffrage counts, but 17.5-year-old suffrage does not.\nAt least 70% of the age group in question must be enfranchised to count; places like Germany and the US where minors may vote in states or municipalities comprising <70% of the country's population do not suffice.\nResolution will use [the NYRA tracker](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) as a primary source, or [Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_age) and credible media reports if necessary.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13783,17 +13801,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 232, + "numforecasts": 275, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13813,7 +13831,7 @@ } ], "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 196, + "numforecasts": 197, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13823,17 +13841,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", - "numforecasts": 136, + "numforecasts": 147, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13851,7 +13869,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "On December 8th 2020, Starship SN8 was the first SpaceX Starship prototype to fly to a height of at least 1 km (12.5 km to be specific). SpaceX intends to one day use Starship to bring humans to Mars.\nWhen will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the third Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. The criteria for \"flight\" are the same as in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4622/how-many-more-starship-prototypes-will-be-destroyed-before-one-flies/), notably, the Starship must reach a height of at least 1 km intact for resolution, and what counts as a Starship is outlined in [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/).\nThis question has [a sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339), asking about the 2nd Starship flight.\n", - "numforecasts": 506, + "numforecasts": 570, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13860,7 +13878,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 83, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13869,7 +13887,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 116, + "numforecasts": 119, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13879,17 +13897,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)).\nWill EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13909,7 +13927,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:\n--- \nwhen requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),\n--- \nto address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),\n--- \nor to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).\nThe Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).\nRecent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This question asks:\nWill the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that the Insurrection Act has been invoked in the United States prior to 1 January 2025. No additional criteria need be met for this question to resolve positive.\nThis question will close retroactively to two days prior to the invocation of the Act should the Act be invoked. If the exact time of the invocation cannot be determined, the time of the first credible report will be used instead.\n\nRelated questions\n-----------------\n\n---[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) \n---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nIf positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13918,7 +13936,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The first petascale supercomputer--that is, a computer capable of performing 10^15 floating-point operations per second, or one petaFLOP--[came online in 2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_performance_by_orders_of_magnitude). \nThe first exascale computers (10^18 operations) are expected [later this year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/) and were [originally expected by Metaculus late last year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/).\nThe first zettascale computers, which can perform 10^21 operations per second, are not yet on the horizon.\nWhen will zettascale computing be achieved?\nResolves when the [Top500 list](https://top500.org/lists/top500/) (or other credible source, Wikipedia included, if Top500 isn't around) lists a computer capable of one zettaFLOP or higher Rmax (or broadly equivalent performance measure if Rmax is no longer used) performance. \nHistorical Top500 data available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit#gid=660616297).\nDistributed computing projects like Folding@home do not suffice for positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13938,7 +13956,7 @@ } ], "description": "AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit key size. The key size of 256 bits appears to render a brute-force search of the keyspace infeasible on foreseeable classical and quantum computers--the latter still must search an effective keyspace of 128 bits (see Grover's algorithm). The best publicly known attack on AES-256 requires the search of a keyspace slightly greater than 254 bits, which is infeasible. This keyspace is so large that a brute force search would be energy-constrained on a solar-system scale even with unlimited computing power at the physical limits of efficiency. \nThere is some consideration that mathematical and / or cryptoanalytic advances may enable new attacks on AES-256 that could make key recovery computationally feasible. Public, and presumably private, cryptanalysis of AES-256 is ongoing so it is plausible that by some means a practical break could become public knowledge by 2040. Advances in AI before the resolution date may plausibly speed up the rate of relevant mathematical and crytoanalytic discoveries. \nWill AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?\nAnything that is not a computationally feasible break of the algorithm itself will not resolve positive. For example, any kind of dictionary attack, including AI-generated dictionaries, does not resolve positive. Side-channel attacks do not resolve positive. Any other attacks on implementations of AES-256, but not the specification for the AES-256 algorithm itself, do not resolve positive. Non-cryptographic means of key recovery, such as interrogation, brain scan, theft or espionage do not resolve positive. \nThis question resolves positive if before 12:01 AM GMT on January 1 2040 a credible, practically demonstrated* means of determining a AES-256 secret key without any special knowledge except the given ciphertext is made known to the public. Correspondingly, attacks that require a plaintext or more than one ciphertext for a given key do not resolve positive.\n*\"Practically demonstrated\" means that a successful attack against AES-256 was actually carried out.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13948,17 +13966,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13976,7 +13994,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).\nWhen will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?\n---Countries with 1M population size only. \n---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. \n---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). \n---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. \n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -13996,7 +14014,7 @@ } ], "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n--- \n[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)\n--- \n[When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)\nThe [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers , which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function other than these trivial zeroes had real part equal to .\nThe conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic for the prime counting function . It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations.\nWill the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14006,17 +14024,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 148, + "numforecasts": 152, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14025,7 +14043,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "--- \nThe UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election.\n--- \nThere have been three general elections since the Act was passed in 2011. Only one, the very first in 2015, was on the five-year schedule fixed by the Act. \n--- \nIn 2017, an election was called via a provision in the Act which triggers an early election if two-thirds of MPs support it. Theresa May, therefore, was able to demand an election.\n--- \nIn 2019, the Act was circumvented by a [special-purpose Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019) passed through both Houses of Parliament.\n--- \nThe government has, furthermore, begun the process to [repeal the Act](https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2019-21/fixedtermparliamentsact2011repeal.html) - with the intention of returning the discretion to call elections back to the prime minister. There are some constitutional issues it creates, but the intention is to restore power over the timing of elections to the executive.\n--- \nThere has never been complete discretion over elections: even before the FTPA, parliamentary sittings could not exceed a five-year term. That has been a feature of British politics since 1911. Prior to 1911, the maximum term was 7 years. Proposals to ditch the FTPA have, to date, not envisage moving to a longer or shorter maximum term. \n--- \nHistorically, it was quite normal for parliaments not to go to term. Some PMs went early for elections because they lost their majorities in parliament - like Jim Callaghan in 1979. Sometimes it was because they figured a slightly earlier election would be easier to win than one at the five-year mark. Blair, for example, called his two elections as sitting prime minister four years into each term - in 2001 and 2005. \n--- \nGovernments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the FTPA, been governments expecting to lose. Prime ministers delayed elections in the hope that the political temper would move in their favour. Major won a shock victory in 1992 in a vote almost 5 years after the 1987 election. He lost, five years later, in 1997. Gordon Brown held on to reach the fifth year in 2010.\nWhen will the UK hold its next general election?\nThis question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14045,7 +14063,7 @@ } ], "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14085,7 +14103,7 @@ } ], "description": "An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).\nThis question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.\nIn the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?\nThis will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021\n", - "numforecasts": 121, + "numforecasts": 129, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14112,7 +14130,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).\nWhen will China become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.\n", - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14132,7 +14150,7 @@ } ], "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n", - "numforecasts": 133, + "numforecasts": 135, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14172,7 +14190,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", - "numforecasts": 92, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14182,17 +14200,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14210,7 +14228,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March\n", - "numforecasts": 52, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14219,7 +14237,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14228,7 +14246,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14246,7 +14264,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14264,7 +14282,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14282,7 +14300,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14291,7 +14309,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14309,7 +14327,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14327,7 +14345,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nVarda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. \nAs of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. \nPredictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda.\nWhen will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14336,7 +14354,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14346,17 +14364,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14376,7 +14394,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 211, + "numforecasts": 213, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14426,17 +14444,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14445,27 +14463,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", - "numforecasts": 21, - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 be vaccinated again due to a mutation?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6433/us-cdc-recommends-revaccination-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14494,7 +14492,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14514,7 +14512,7 @@ } ], "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", - "numforecasts": 141, + "numforecasts": 142, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14523,7 +14521,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14533,17 +14531,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", - "numforecasts": 71, + "numforecasts": 80, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14553,17 +14551,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n", - "numforecasts": 157, + "numforecasts": 168, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14572,7 +14570,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n", - "numforecasts": 140, + "numforecasts": 164, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14592,7 +14590,7 @@ } ], "description": "At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.\nWill the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\nThe label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UK’s [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-être animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasts": 13, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14602,17 +14600,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14621,7 +14619,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.\nGermany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.\nFrench Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.\nIn March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.\nThe Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.\nAssoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs\nWhen will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?\nThis resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:\n1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and \n2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. \nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.\nIn case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14671,17 +14669,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14691,17 +14689,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "probability": 0.22999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n", - "numforecasts": 96, + "numforecasts": 110, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14710,7 +14708,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nBetween 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nIn Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0).\nFor detailed statistics and a current snapshot of Liberal attitudes to gender representation, see Gender & Politics 2020 from the Liberal Party-affiliated Menzies Research Centre ([free download, but registration required](https://www.menziesrc.org/news-feed/gender-and-politics)).\nIn 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?\nThis question will resolve as the percent of Liberal women MPs in state and federal governments, on 2026-01-01, at 00:00 AEDT. Government membership lists will be allowed as an official source. \nThe \"Coalition\" arrangement between the Liberal Party and the National Party means that some decisions are needed about who is or is not a \"Liberal\" parliamentarian. \nAt the state level, a Liberal parliamentarian is any member of the Liberal Party in each state but Queensland, the Liberal National Party in Queensland, the Canberra Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. If the Liberal and National parties merge in any other states/territories, all parliamentarians in the merged party will be counted. \nIf the Liberal National Party splits into separate Liberal and National parties, only parliamentarians in the Queensland Liberal Party (or, if a different name is chosen, any branch affiliated with the federal Liberal Party) will be counted. \n--\nAt the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will be counted. If the Liberal and National party rooms merge, all parliamentarians in the joint room count. \n--\nIf party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. \n--\nOnly state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 19, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14719,7 +14717,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "There have been two 10+ km testflights of prototypes of SpaceX's reusable Starship upper stage, meant to verify the rocket's landing manuever, one on December 8th 2020, the other on February 2nd 2021. Both flights have ended in Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly (RUD) upon contact with the ground.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?\nThis question resolves to the time of the first Starship flight that both goes above 5 km, and successfully lands in one piece, in a manner representative of how the Starship is meant to land. The criteria for \"flight\" are the same as in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4622/how-many-more-starship-prototypes-will-be-destroyed-before-one-flies/), and what counts as a Starship is outlined in [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/), namely:\n--- \nTo trigger resolution, the prototype must be intact at an altitude of 5 km, having ascended by firing its engines. It does not count if an explosion flings portions of the prototype to an altitude of 5 km.\n--- \nThe vehicle must not be an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative\n--- \nThe vehicle should be intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended)\n--- \nThe vehicle must [represent part of an intended full launch system that has] a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today.\n--- \nThe vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14739,7 +14737,7 @@ } ], "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14759,7 +14757,7 @@ } ], "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", - "numforecasts": 108, + "numforecasts": 115, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14769,17 +14767,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.29000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.\n[Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.\nNote: I am using \"DNA data\", \"genomics data\", \"genetic data\" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect.\nWill there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the New York Times (or another similarly reputable source) reports, before January 1 2030, on the following having occurred:\n1-- \nGenetic data collected through either medical testing or direct-to-consumer products\n2-- \nIs used to inflict harm on one or more individuals\n3-- \nWithout their consent\nRecognizing that \"harm\" and \"consent\" can be fuzzy, here are some examples meant to clarify the intent of the question.\nThe following examples do not count as positive resolutions:\n--- \nSpeculation that such a harm is possible, plausible, or likely\n--- \nGenetic data is leaked or hacked but there is no evidence about specific harmful uses resulting from this.\n--- \nGenetic data is collected in a bespoke way for the purposes of harm (eg a state power collects DNA from a targeted individual).\n--- \nIndividuals suffer psychic harm from discovering family infidelities (this is so common already that it is \"baked in\" to consent). \nThe following examples do count as positive resolutions: \n--- \nEvidence of discrimination or insurance rates being set from individual-level genomics without explicit customer authorization (\"would you like to submit your DNA profile to Anthem?\"), even if legal and authorized under a vague terms of service\n--- \nAn outside actor gaining access to genomics data, learning about family infidelities, and publishing this broadly. \n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14788,7 +14786,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 104, + "numforecasts": 113, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14797,7 +14795,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)\n--- \n[What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/)\nCryptocurrencies' prices are dictated both by speculation and utility. Bitcoin's price movement seems to be driven by its use as an investment vehicle with increasingly many platforms offering consumers the opportunity to hold Bitcoin e.g. [BITW](https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/funds/Bitwise-10), and [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC). Much of the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem including Ethereum, Polkadot and Chainlink supports underlying infrastructure and decentralized applications. \nBitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypto sector as a whole is driven by its investment potential as currencies as opposed to its platform potential as blockchains.\nWhat will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?\nThis question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14806,7 +14804,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to .\nWhen will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved or disproved?\nThis question will resolve as the date when the Clay Mathematics Institute announces that the Hypothesis has been proved or disproved according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), or when it is shown to be independent of the standard ZFC axioms.\nIn case the Clay Mathematics Institute is discontinued or no longer awards prizes for resolved Millennium Prize Problems, it resolves when admins decide that there is a consensus amongst relevant leading pure mathematicians about the Hypothesis being resolved.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14815,7 +14813,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will Russia become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n", - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 17, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14824,7 +14822,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14833,7 +14831,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n", - "numforecasts": 93, + "numforecasts": 97, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14853,7 +14851,7 @@ } ], "description": "Each year since 2011, the programming Q&A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.\nHowever, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:\nWill JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?\nThis question resolves positively if:\n1--A summary of the 2030 Stack Overflow Annual Survey results is released, \n2--Those results contain some version of a 'most commonly used programming languages' question, and \n3--In the view of Metaculus admins resolving this question, JavaScript has the highest percentage of any programming language in the relevant 'most common'/'most popular' list, among all survey respondents. If another programming language is instead the 'most commonly used', this question resolves negatively. \nIf Stack Overflow does not release the results of a 2030 Annual Developer Survey for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. If no 'commonly used programming languages' question is included, this question also resolves ambiguously. If the organization currently known as Stack Overflow changes name or structure, continuity will be judged by Metaculus admins.\nStack Overflow Annual Developer surveys do not need to be conducted in each consecutive year for the purposes of this question's resolution --- a cessation of all surveys from 2021 to 2029 is irrelevant --- but results of a 2030 survey must be publicly reported. \n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14863,17 +14861,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 52, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14893,7 +14891,7 @@ } ], "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", - "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasts": 11, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14913,7 +14911,7 @@ } ], "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 164, + "numforecasts": 168, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14923,17 +14921,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "From wikipedia \"the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control.\"\n[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps) is an introductory video. And see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) for a definition of AGI arrival.\nWill the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?\nThe question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus.\nNote this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative. \n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14942,7 +14940,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14951,7 +14949,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14960,7 +14958,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14969,7 +14967,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14978,7 +14976,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14987,7 +14985,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -14996,7 +14994,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Bitcoin's network relies on the process of blockchain mining, which involves finding blocks on the network through performing computations that result in the addition of transaction records to Bitcoin's public ledger of past transactions. The network's hash rate is the total of the speed at which all mining machines operate. As of writing this question, Bitcoin's network hash rate is around 165M tera hashes per second.\nWhat will Bitcoin's network hash rate per second be (in Millions of tera hashes per second) as per the performance rates posted by [blockchain.com](https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=2years) on 17 November 2022?\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15005,7 +15003,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15014,7 +15012,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15023,7 +15021,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15032,7 +15030,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15041,7 +15039,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15050,7 +15048,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15059,7 +15057,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15068,7 +15066,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15077,7 +15075,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15086,7 +15084,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15095,7 +15093,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15104,7 +15102,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15113,7 +15111,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15142,7 +15140,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive) — this question. \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15171,7 +15169,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15181,17 +15179,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question.\nWill the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?\nResolves to \"yes\" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to \"no\" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15200,7 +15198,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving \"herd immunity\" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)\nIt is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains.\nIn this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). \nWhen (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?\nThis will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.)\nIf data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15209,7 +15207,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" in the US as 34.7M.\nOn what date will this number reach 100M?\nWhen will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?\nThe [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nResolves to the first date on which the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" at the above link is above 100M.\nIf the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M.\n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15218,7 +15216,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. \nIndefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution.\nPresident Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. \nIn January 2018, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to keep the detention camp open indefinitely.\nIn February 2021, [the Biden Administration made it clear that it intends to shut down the facility.](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/politics/biden-guantanamo-bay/index.html) According to CNN:\nThe Biden administration intends to close the Guantánamo Bay detention facility, which houses approximately 40 prisoners, by the end of their term.\nWhen asked by a reporter during a press briefing on Friday if the prison would be closed by the time President Joe Biden leaves office, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, \"That's certainly our goal and our intention.\"\nWhen will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?\nThis question resolves as the date that credible reports indicate that the detention camp has been permanently closed by the U.S. government.\nClosures that are intended to be temporary, e.g. for renovation, construction work, due to natural disasters, or for other reasons, do not count.\n", - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15227,7 +15225,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Belarus held a presidential election on August 9th 2020. While the official results showed Alexander Lukashenko winning with over 80% of the vote, international observers considered the election to be neither free nor fair. A [large-scale protest movement emerged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests) and the authorities responded violently with over 1,000 testimonies of torture victims now documented.\nOpposition figure Valery Tsepkalo [predicted that the Lukashenko regime 'could fall in two weeks'](https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-alexander-lukashenkos-regime-could-fall-in-two-weeks-presidential-hopeful-predicts-12051939) back in August 2020 (shortly after the election). As of the writing of this question, well over 5 months after his comments, Lukashenko appears to be in full control and a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/) asking whether he would remain in power until January 31st 2021 has resolved positively.\nHowever, Lukashenko has promised constitutional changes, which he says will be implemented [after a referendum in early 2022](https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashenko-hints-at-leaving-but-not-today/a-56537777). Lukashenko has [previously promised to step down after a new constitution is adopted](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lukashenko-belarus-election-b1762811.html). The opposition generally considers this an empty promise.\nWhen will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?\nThis question will be resolved to the earliest date on which there is credible media reporting that Lukashenko has ceased to hold the office of president. In the case where Lukashenko claims to be president in addition to at least one other person, the question will resolve only if Lukashenko no longer holds the \"means of power\" (broadly, controls the military and police).\nIf Alexander Lukashenko does not leave power before the end of 2039, this question resolves as \">\".\n", - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15247,7 +15245,7 @@ } ], "description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.\nWill there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15257,17 +15255,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created.\nRather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws.\nHowever, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described.\nAlcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013)\nWill a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds.\nThis demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15276,7 +15274,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15285,7 +15283,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15294,7 +15292,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "numforecasts": 129, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15303,7 +15301,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 44, + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15312,7 +15310,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15321,7 +15319,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15330,7 +15328,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15339,7 +15337,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15348,7 +15346,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15357,7 +15355,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15366,7 +15364,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15375,7 +15373,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 44, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15384,7 +15382,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15393,7 +15391,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 44, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15402,7 +15400,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15411,7 +15409,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15420,7 +15418,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15429,7 +15427,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15438,7 +15436,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15447,7 +15445,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15456,7 +15454,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:\nthe short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?\nThis question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:\nThe range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.\nPatients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom \n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15466,17 +15464,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On Feb 12, Alex Tabarrok [wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/12/first-doses-vaccine-rules-fda/) advocating for several policies that would speed up vaccinations. \nA “first doses first” approach — that is, prioritizing first doses by delaying the second shot from three to four weeks (the period studied in clinical trials) to 12 weeks — would allow more people to get vaccinated quickly, for example. \n“Fractional” dosing, such as by giving half-doses, would instantly increase the vaccine supply and has been used successfully in previous epidemics.\nGiving the Americans who have already been infected (up to 100 million people) only one shot would help doses go further.\nIt also urges approval of more vaccines.\nWill the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?\nThis question resolves positively if prior to Apr 1st, credible reports say that US health officials have implemented any of the following policies from the above op-ed:\n--- \nApproval of Astrazeneca, Novavax, or Sputnik vaccines\n--- \nHalf dosing of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines\n--- \nDelaying the second dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines\n--- \nGiving only one shot to those who have previously recovered from Covid-19\n", - "numforecasts": 108, + "numforecasts": 161, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15485,7 +15483,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:\nThe People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.\nWhile the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.\nWhen will China officially cease to be a socialist state?\nThis question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:\n1-- \nThere is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five [autonomous regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_China) of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.\nAny future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.\n2-- \nThe constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.\nThe resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as >.\nFor the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.\nThe first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question. \n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15494,6 +15492,26 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 21, + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.\nWill Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?\nA report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product.\n", "numforecasts": 19, "stars": 3 }, @@ -15503,7 +15521,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15523,7 +15541,7 @@ } ], "description": "A [primordial black hole](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Primordial_black_hole) (PBH) is\na hypothetical type of black hole that formed soon after the Big Bang...Since primordial black holes did not form from stellar gravitational collapse, their masses can be far below stellar mass.\nAs of this writing, no direct observational evidence of PBHs exists.\n[Dark matter](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Dark_matter) is\na form of matter thought to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe...Its presence is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained by accepted theories of gravity unless more matter is present than can be seen.\nHowever,\ndark matter has not yet been observed directly, [therefore,] if it exists, it must barely interact with ordinary matter and radiation, except through gravity.\nIt has been suggested ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722)) that PBHs are a natural candidate for dark matter. Although astrophysical measurements and theoretical arguments have put severe constraints ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Figure 3) on the possibility that PBHs constitute a significant fraction of dark matter across most of the PBH mass range. However, the \"asteroid mass region\" between - kg has not been ruled out yet, although this may merely \"reflect the difficulty of detecting such light compact objects\" ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Section IV).\nWill most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?\nThis question resolves positively if the scientific consensus (as defined in the fine print) at resolution date is that primordial black holes represent 50% or more of the mass contained in dark matter in the observable universe today.\nThis question resolves negatively if the consensus is that said figure is less than 50% or that dark matter does not exist.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no consensus.\nThe scientific consensus on the matter will be determined following the protocol outlined in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/).\nThe question posed to the experts will be \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that primordial black holes constitute at least 50% of dark matter? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\"\nThe sample of experts will be determined using the arXiv categories \"Astrophysics of Galaxies\", \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\", and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology\".\nIf the arXiv no longer exists or the volume and/or quality of papers posted have decreased substantially (as judged by Metaculus mods) by resolution date, the sample of experts will be chosen following a similar procedure with details to be determined at the discretion the Metaculus mods. \n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15532,7 +15550,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): \nThe blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911.\nInteresting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment)\nWhat will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?\nThe question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval.\n", - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15552,7 +15570,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15562,17 +15580,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "probability": 0.07999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15592,7 +15610,7 @@ } ], "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) \nStarlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.\nWill starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?\nThis will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15601,7 +15619,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15610,7 +15628,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15619,7 +15637,16 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 21, + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n", + "numforecasts": 27, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15628,7 +15655,16 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries.\nWhat will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?\nThis question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly.\n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 18, + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n", + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15638,17 +15674,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15657,7 +15693,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n", - "numforecasts": 115, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15677,7 +15713,7 @@ } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?\nThis question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 116, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15697,7 +15733,7 @@ } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "numforecasts": 83, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15707,17 +15743,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.\nWill US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?\nThis question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15726,7 +15762,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15746,7 +15782,7 @@ } ], "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15766,7 +15802,7 @@ } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n", - "numforecasts": 124, + "numforecasts": 127, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15786,7 +15822,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15806,7 +15842,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.\nWill the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15826,7 +15862,7 @@ } ], "description": "On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.\nWill Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15836,17 +15872,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15855,7 +15891,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident).\nWhat will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?\nThis question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15875,7 +15911,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).\nWill Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15895,7 +15931,7 @@ } ], "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 39, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15915,7 +15951,7 @@ } ], "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15924,7 +15960,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).\nWhat will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?\nWhat will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15934,17 +15970,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasts": 100, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15954,17 +15990,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.\nThe paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf).\nWill the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024\nAn official government announcement is sufficient e.g. statement in parliament or press release on [gov.uk](http://gov.uk)\nA pilot scheme will count as positive resolution.\nThe zoning laws to be voted on must include at least the following options:\n--- \nNumber of floors\n--- \nPlot use\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15984,7 +16020,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -15993,7 +16029,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 107, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -16002,7 +16038,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -16011,7 +16047,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -16020,7 +16056,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3 }, { @@ -16029,7 +16065,132 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 42, + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", + "numforecasts": 27, + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n", + "numforecasts": 167, + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n", + "numforecasts": 33, + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 18, + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n", + "numforecasts": 28, + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6710/us-school-staff-to-get-1st-dose-by-31-march/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [\"every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program.\nWill every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. \nIf there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6717/-b117-in-the-us-21-27-march/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1.\nB.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. The B.1.1.7 variant is the most frequent variant sequenced in the US. As of 1 March, the [CDC has reported](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) 2,506 cases of B.1.1.7 compared to 65 cases of B.1.351 and 10 cases of P.1. One or more cases of B.1.1.7 have been reported in 46 jurisdictions.\nIn response to an increased incidence of sequenced viral samples that are identified as B.1.1.7, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, an increased need for vaccination, and an increased rate of genomic sequencing.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?\nThis question will resolve as the 7 day rolling average of % sequences that are B.1.1.7 in the U.S. on 27 March 2021 (i.e. the average percentage between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021) at the following website: [https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country](https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country). This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 6 April 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 11, + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 11, + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nThere is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\nData sources and more information:\n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---[Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variants from neutralization by convalescent plasma](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) \n---[Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) \n---[Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \nHow many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?\nThis question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday).\n", + "numforecasts": 13, "stars": 3 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/metaforecasts.json b/data/metaforecasts.json index 8ddf311..424068a 100644 --- a/data/metaforecasts.json +++ b/data/metaforecasts.json @@ -53,17 +53,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8202597402597402, + "probability": 0.8209913793103447, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17974025974025976, + "probability": 0.17900862068965528, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 231, - "numforecasters": 123, + "numforecasts": 232, + "numforecasters": 124, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -172,6 +172,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4249074074074074, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5750925925925926, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 108, + "numforecasters": 77, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How vivid is your visual imagination?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -214,27 +235,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4249074074074074, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5750925925925926, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 108, - "numforecasters": 77, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -284,16 +284,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28802083333333334, + "probability": 0.2895876288659794, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7119791666666666, + "probability": 0.7104123711340207, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 96, + "numforecasts": 97, "numforecasters": 73, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -403,27 +403,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1975862068965517, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8024137931034483, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 87, - "numforecasters": 66, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How frequently do you think in words?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -446,23 +425,23 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Do you have an internal monologue?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8227500000000001, + "probability": 0.1975862068965517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1772499999999999, + "probability": 0.8024137931034483, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 80, - "numforecasters": 63, + "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasters": 66, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -487,6 +466,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Do you have an internal monologue?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8227500000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.1772499999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasters": 63, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How vivid is your touch imagination?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -571,27 +571,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3156060606060606, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6843939393939393, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 66, - "numforecasters": 52, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -613,6 +592,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3156060606060606, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6843939393939393, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasters": 52, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will the post \"Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong\" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20\"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong\"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -641,17 +641,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04507692307692308, + "probability": 0.04454545454545454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9549230769230769, + "probability": 0.9554545454545454, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 65, - "numforecasters": 38, + "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasters": 39, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -676,6 +676,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 64, + "numforecasters": 35, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -697,27 +718,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20682539682539683, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7931746031746032, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 63, - "numforecasters": 34, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -760,6 +760,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2806382978723404, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7193617021276596, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasters": 32, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -782,23 +803,23 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26866666666666666, + "probability": 0.36911764705882355, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7313333333333334, + "probability": 0.6308823529411764, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 45, - "numforecasters": 31, + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 29, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -844,27 +865,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36911764705882355, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6308823529411764, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 29, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -886,6 +886,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 28, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -949,48 +970,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08806451612903227, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9119354838709677, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 31, - "numforecasters": 28, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 28, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1012,6 +991,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08806451612903227, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9119354838709677, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasters": 28, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1055,22 +1055,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "California will secede from the United States before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Trump wins Nobel", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.006764705882352942, + "probability": 0.10552631578947368, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9932352941176471, + "probability": 0.8944736842105263, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 38, "numforecasters": 26, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1096,27 +1096,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Trump wins Nobel", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10552631578947368, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8944736842105263, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 38, - "numforecasters": 26, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1138,6 +1117,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "California will secede from the United States before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.006764705882352942, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9932352941176471, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 26, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1159,6 +1159,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4684375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5315624999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasters": 24, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "...be an environmental disaster.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1181,23 +1202,23 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4684375, + "probability": 0.07461538461538461, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5315624999999999, + "probability": 0.9253846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 32, - "numforecasters": 24, + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -1222,27 +1243,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2439285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7560714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 28, - "numforecasters": 23, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1264,27 +1264,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07461538461538461, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9253846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 23, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1306,6 +1285,69 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2439285714285714, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7560714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasters": 23, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33909090909090905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6609090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasters": 22, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8411111111111111, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15888888888888886, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasters": 22, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1327,27 +1369,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6888, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31120000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1391,64 +1412,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8411111111111111, + "probability": 0.6888, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15888888888888886, + "probability": 0.31120000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 25, "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33909090909090905, + "probability": 0.7019047619047619, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6609090909090909, + "probability": 0.2980952380952381, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 33, - "numforecasters": 22, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3745833333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6254166666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 21, "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1475,18 +1475,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2636, + "probability": 0.2885185185185185, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7363999999999999, + "probability": 0.7114814814814815, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13119999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8688, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1496,22 +1517,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7019047619047619, + "probability": 0.3745833333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2980952380952381, + "probability": 0.6254166666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 24, "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1558,6 +1579,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8451515151515152, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.1548484848484848, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1580,22 +1622,64 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07454545454545454, + "probability": 0.2636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9254545454545454, + "probability": 0.7363999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3103225806451613, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6896774193548387, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2782857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7217142857142858, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 35, "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1643,43 +1727,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2803846153846154, + "probability": 0.11681818181818182, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7196153846153845, + "probability": 0.8831818181818182, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 22, "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13625, + "probability": 0.07454545454545454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86375, + "probability": 0.9254545454545454, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 22, "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1705,69 +1789,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21636363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7836363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2782857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7217142857142858, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 35, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11681818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8831818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1790,43 +1811,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7484999999999999, + "probability": 0.21636363636363637, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25150000000000006, + "probability": 0.7836363636363637, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 19, + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5694285714285714, + "probability": 0.8675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4305714285714286, + "probability": 0.13249999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasts": 24, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1853,22 +1874,85 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29379310344827586, + "probability": 0.5694285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7062068965517241, + "probability": 0.4305714285714286, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20523809523809525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7947619047619048, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02210526315789474, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9778947368421053, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1894,27 +1978,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.542, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45799999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1999,27 +2062,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2041,27 +2083,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13249999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 24, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2084,22 +2105,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02210526315789474, + "probability": 0.542, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9778947368421053, + "probability": 0.45799999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 20, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2126,22 +2147,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6434000000000001, + "probability": 0.7484999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3565999999999999, + "probability": 0.25150000000000006, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20\"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true\".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3281481481481482, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6718518518518518, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 27, "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2189,85 +2231,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12047619047619047, + "probability": 0.6434000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8795238095238095, + "probability": 0.3565999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5177777777777778, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4822222222222222, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.213, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.787, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20\"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true\".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3281481481481482, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6718518518518518, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 50, "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2294,22 +2273,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4026923076923077, + "probability": 0.12047619047619047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5973076923076923, + "probability": 0.8795238095238095, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 21, "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2336,22 +2315,64 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3095, + "probability": 0.4026923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6905, + "probability": 0.5973076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5177777777777778, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4822222222222222, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12789473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8721052631578947, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2377,27 +2398,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8395238095238095, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16047619047619055, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2420,22 +2420,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.017222222222222222, + "probability": 0.26894736842105266, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9827777777777778, + "probability": 0.7310526315789474, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2462,39 +2462,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.017222222222222222, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 23, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6933333333333332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30666666666666675, + "probability": 0.9827777777777778, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2524,6 +2503,69 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3095, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8395238095238095, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.16047619047619055, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6933333333333332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30666666666666675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2546,81 +2588,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12789473684210526, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8721052631578947, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 23, "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "US presidents term limits abolished", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26894736842105266, + "probability": 0.02235294117647059, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7310526315789474, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19105263157894736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8089473684210526, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0811764705882353, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9188235294117647, + "probability": 0.9776470588235294, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2629,48 +2629,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35526315789473684, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6447368421052632, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.049, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.951, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2692,69 +2650,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9531578947368421, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.04684210526315791, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "US presidents term limits abolished", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02235294117647059, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9776470588235294, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2776,6 +2671,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.049, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.951, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2819,169 +2735,127 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5689655172413793, + "probability": 0.0811764705882353, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - 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"options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9353333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06466666666666665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03705882352941177, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9629411764705882, + "probability": 0.9188235294117647, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, + "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6647058823529411, + "probability": 0.35526315789473684, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33529411764705885, + "probability": 0.6447368421052632, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.294375, + "probability": 0.19105263157894736, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.705625, + "probability": 0.8089473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9531578947368421, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.04684210526315791, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95875, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 15, + "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5517647058823529, + "probability": 0.118125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44823529411764707, + "probability": 0.881875, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7394117647058823, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2605882352941177, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3008,43 +2882,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1448, + "probability": 0.9353333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8552, + "probability": 0.06466666666666665, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.933125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06687500000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3092,18 +2945,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41470588235294115, + "probability": 0.7394117647058823, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5852941176470589, + "probability": 0.2605882352941177, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3113,39 +2966,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8291304347826087, + "probability": 0.03705882352941177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17086956521739127, + "probability": 0.9629411764705882, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.926875, + "probability": 0.294375, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.073125, + "probability": 0.705625, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3154,6 +3007,90 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1448, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8552, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5517647058823529, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44823529411764707, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6647058823529411, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33529411764705885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5936, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4064, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3176,18 +3113,60 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.118125, + "probability": 0.5689655172413793, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.881875, + "probability": 0.43103448275862066, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41470588235294115, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5852941176470589, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.926875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.073125, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3197,22 +3176,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "probability": 0.933125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "probability": 0.06687500000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09823529411764706, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9017647058823529, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3238,48 +3238,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8717647058823529, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12823529411764711, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3301,195 +3259,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11733333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8826666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.111875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.888125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28214285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7178571428571429, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17394444444444446, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8260555555555555, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47388888888888886, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5261111111111112, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07857142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9214285714285715, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.062, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.938, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3512,39 +3281,60 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0955, + "probability": 0.8717647058823529, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9045, + "probability": 0.12823529411764711, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08785714285714287, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9121428571428571, + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07857142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9214285714285715, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3554,22 +3344,64 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09823529411764706, + "probability": 0.47388888888888886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9017647058823529, + "probability": 0.5261111111111112, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17394444444444446, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8260555555555555, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8855, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.11450000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3596,60 +3428,207 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2764285714285714, + "probability": 0.111875, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7235714285714285, + "probability": 0.888125, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 13, + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6271428571428571, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3728571428571429, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 13, + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05333333333333333, + "probability": 0.062, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9466666666666667, + "probability": 0.938, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08785714285714287, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9121428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.0955, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9045, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11733333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8826666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28214285714285714, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7178571428571429, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4026666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5973333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3659,18 +3638,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "ETI is AGI", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8461111111111111, + "probability": 0.29333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15388888888888885, + "probability": 0.7066666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3700,69 +3679,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.040769230769230766, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9592307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "10 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08416666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9158333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 36, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1336842105263158, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8663157894736842, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3784,48 +3700,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7066666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04923076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9507692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3848,18 +3722,60 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "ETI is AGI", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.320625, + "probability": 0.8461111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6793750000000001, + "probability": 0.15388888888888885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4446153846153846, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5553846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.853125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.14687499999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3889,27 +3805,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.853125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14687499999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3932,85 +3827,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2675, + "probability": 0.6271428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7324999999999999, + "probability": 0.3728571428571429, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06625, + "probability": 0.2978571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.93375, + "probability": 0.7021428571428572, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 32, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09466666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9053333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8538461538461538, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -4037,81 +3890,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3375, + "probability": 0.09466666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4446153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5553846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3830769230769231, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6169230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4026666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5973333333333333, + "probability": 0.9053333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4121,18 +3911,123 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2978571428571428, + "probability": 0.04923076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7021428571428572, + "probability": 0.9507692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8457894736842105, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15421052631578946, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "10 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08416666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9158333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.320625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6793750000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9466666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2764285714285714, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7235714285714285, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4163,22 +4058,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1469230769230769, + "probability": 0.06625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8530769230769231, + "probability": 0.93375, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 32, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -4204,6 +4099,90 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.040769230769230766, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9592307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7324999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3830769230769231, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6169230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4225,6 +4204,174 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1469230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8530769230769231, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1336842105263158, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8663157894736842, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8538461538461538, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6653846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33461538461538465, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.027333333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9726666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3666666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49242424242424243, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5075757575757576, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4246,6 +4393,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "100 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.007931034482758621, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9920689655172413, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4268,18 +4457,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4607142857142857, + "probability": 0.15928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5392857142857144, + "probability": 0.8407142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4310,18 +4499,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.24333333333333332, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.7566666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4330,111 +4519,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03833333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9616666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.027333333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9726666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.696, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4457,18 +4541,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6653846153846154, + "probability": 0.304, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33461538461538465, + "probability": 0.696, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7892307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21076923076923082, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4478,18 +4583,165 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8683333333333333, + "probability": 0.4607142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1316666666666667, + "probability": 0.5392857142857144, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5246666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4753333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3707692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6292307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03833333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9616666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4310526315789474, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5689473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2025, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7975, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3358333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6641666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8175, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4520,18 +4772,60 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3707692307692308, + "probability": 0.013076923076923076, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6292307692307693, + "probability": 0.9869230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04642857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9535714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.46692307692307694, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.533076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4561,27 +4855,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24333333333333332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7566666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4603,174 +4876,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3358333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6641666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.013076923076923076, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9869230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2025, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7975, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.006, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.994, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46692307692307694, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.533076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8407142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3666666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4793,39 +4898,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "100 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - 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}, - { - "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5246666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4753333333333333, + "probability": 0.994, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4898,102 +4982,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - 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"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4592307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5407692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23377083333333332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7662291666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 24, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4081818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5918181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03538461538461538, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9646153846153847, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7516666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2483333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2888, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7112, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6679999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.872, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.128, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10181818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8981818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6592857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.34071428571428575, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26272727272727275, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7372727272727273, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4153846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5846153846153845, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -5402,18 +5045,207 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05416666666666667, + "probability": 0.28428571428571425, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9458333333333333, + "probability": 0.7157142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6778571428571429, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32214285714285706, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.23377083333333332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7662291666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5621428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43785714285714283, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4307692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5692307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.40909090909090906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10285714285714287, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8971428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4153846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5846153846153845, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6481818181818181, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3518181818181819, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7516666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2483333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5423,18 +5255,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.38636363636363635, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.6136363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5443,6 +5275,69 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.57, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5557142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4442857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6592857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.34071428571428575, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5486,18 +5381,144 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10785714285714286, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8921428571428571, + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26272727272727275, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7372727272727273, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2888, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7112, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4081818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5918181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6679999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5507,22 +5528,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10285714285714287, + "probability": 0.05416666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8971428571428571, + "probability": 0.9458333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -5548,6 +5569,132 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08923076923076924, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9107692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13666666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8633333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10785714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8921428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21272727272727274, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7872727272727272, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4592307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5407692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7783333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.22166666666666668, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5570,39 +5717,60 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "'President Mike Pence'", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.140625, + "probability": 0.16333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.859375, + "probability": 0.8366666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45692307692307693, + "probability": 0.44083333333333335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.543076923076923, + "probability": 0.5591666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20384615384615384, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7961538461538462, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5633,39 +5801,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.40909090909090906, + "probability": 0.45692307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5269230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47307692307692306, + "probability": 0.543076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5675,123 +5822,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38636363636363635, + "probability": 0.03769230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6136363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6481818181818181, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3518181818181819, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44083333333333335, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5591666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "50 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.016470588235294115, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9835294117647059, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13666666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8633333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4307692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5692307692307692, + "probability": 0.9623076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5800,6 +5842,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10181818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8981818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5822,22 +5885,169 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6778571428571429, + "probability": 0.20727272727272728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32214285714285706, + "probability": 0.7927272727272727, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2809090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7190909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "50 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.016470588235294115, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9835294117647059, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2366666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7633333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9325, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.0675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03538461538461538, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9646153846153847, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45307692307692304, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.546923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31384615384615383, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6861538461538461, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -5885,18 +6095,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20384615384615384, + "probability": 0.5269230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7961538461538462, + "probability": 0.47307692307692306, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5905,195 +6115,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2475, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7525, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03769230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9623076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5621428571428572, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43785714285714283, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31384615384615383, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6861538461538461, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45307692307692304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.546923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20727272727272728, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7927272727272727, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9325, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.0675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2366666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7633333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6116,22 +6137,127 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09357142857142858, + "probability": 0.2963636363636364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9064285714285714, + "probability": 0.7036363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6036363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39636363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17923076923076922, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8207692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07416666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9258333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11461538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8853846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -6158,123 +6284,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.025, + "probability": 0.13083333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.975, + "probability": 0.8691666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.836875, + "probability": 0.261, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16312499999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4107692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5892307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2907692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7092307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.995, + "probability": 0.739, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6304,27 +6346,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.467, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5329999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6346,6 +6367,111 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13142857142857142, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8685714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09571428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9042857142857142, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44399999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.467, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5329999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6368,81 +6494,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17923076923076922, + "probability": 0.005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8207692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3463636363636363, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6536363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07090909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9290909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.413, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.587, + "probability": 0.995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6452,253 +6515,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3681818181818182, + "probability": 0.7066666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6318181818181818, + "probability": 0.29333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.789, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21099999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12090909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8790909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13142857142857142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8685714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26384615384615384, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7361538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.802, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.261, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.739, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.060909090909090906, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9390909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.217, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.783, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11461538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8853846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6036363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39636363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11461538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8853846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -6725,312 +6557,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5272727272727272, + "probability": 0.789, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4727272727272728, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.309, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6910000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13083333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8691666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09571428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9042857142857142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.204, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.796, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.013636363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9863636363636363, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3346153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6653846153846155, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2963636363636364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7036363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39454545454545453, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6054545454545455, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22083333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7791666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.155, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.845, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.113, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.887, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7709999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2290000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07416666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9258333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.21099999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -7061,81 +6599,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44166666666666665, + "probability": 0.198, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5583333333333333, + "probability": 0.802, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7066666666666667, + "probability": 0.113, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08857142857142858, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9114285714285715, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.042, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.958, + "probability": 0.887, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -7166,18 +6662,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.556, + "probability": 0.013636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44399999999999995, + "probability": 0.9863636363636363, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.309, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6910000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -7187,51 +6704,1475 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the Universe end?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/", - "platform": "Metaculus", + "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.5272727272727272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.4727272727272728, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.\nThe question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether \"The Universe\" will end. \nEven posing this question is not very straightforward, as \"The Universe\" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.\nWhen we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the \"sky\" at some \"distance.\" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [\"observiball\"](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [\"lightcone,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.\nTurning this around to look into the future, we can consider the \"Affectiball,\" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.\nWe can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [\"heat death\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that \"interesting things\" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:\nIs the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?\nIf so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)\n", - "numforecasts": 560, - "stars": 3, + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", + "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.975, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 5053, - "stars": 3, + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/", - "platform": "Metaculus", + "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.042, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.958, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26384615384615384, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7361538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39454545454545453, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6054545454545455, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44166666666666665, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5583333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07090909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9290909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.060909090909090906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9390909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08857142857142858, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + 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"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.413, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.587, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + 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"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3463636363636363, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6536363636363637, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4107692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5892307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + 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The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11461538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8853846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", + "url": 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"https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/ef463b8f-50ef-4e5f-93de-fbe3abd53570", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "By mid-2023, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/98933e35-e4ed-4958-a36a-3d4154900bce", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "By mid-2022, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/c5b3dc97-4b67-46c5-93ac-2905113df000", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "By mid-2021, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/2c6253e6-8425-475c-90ba-ff4ab82b5483", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many years from now (Sep 2019) will it take to Physically assemble any LEGO set given the pieces and instructions, using specialized robotics hardware?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/69bf7756-ddb7-4d5c-b5c2-a223cffffe7d", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 4.5, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/70033fc2-af6e-4200-8aae-6d970a3e57ea", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 3.5, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "By mid-2020, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/75e157b5-ffc1-4b1b-9eda-7997dac7e20b", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 5, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b1949fbe-ce22-46d9-83a1-a5c2c53cd826", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 6.5, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b73619d7-8e1e-41a6-9e9f-6cfe22a1dad1", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 3, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2023?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3b91112d-19e3-486b-8ecc-ba9a7a372c09", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 3, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a minority government?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2465e95a-abc4-45a2-8ab3-855ecf295ded", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a majority government?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8289150f-cfec-4327-b981-5fc0d624eb65", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -7244,8 +8185,350 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many seats will Labour win the in the next general election?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/16581899-ae00-44e9-9d17-602ca38c6878", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Labour win the next election?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/4e3274f7-c1b0-4a70-80ae-c931c87dca8d", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 7, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Conservatives win the next election?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/ff1f3bd2-3939-4414-b1cb-817b92ed3786", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 9.5, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If Boris Johnson is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/cb081989-7005-4dea-8288-eeb54b5e8bd6", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 2, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If Sajid Javid is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f682e558-edaf-45e9-9e4e-df4529dd7aa0", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a97b0fa0-1eeb-4bc2-8bec-00e557f5dd91", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 5, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2c2e2991-3720-4786-ae82-448e328f8800", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Brexit be a hard Brexit?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b4f040ed-8145-4e23-8118-c4e06fd90a11", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 3.5, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If Brexit occurs under a Conservative majority government elected in the 2019 election, will it be a hard Brexit?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/04a10cb2-d13f-4af7-8b70-12675dc25e9d", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 3.5, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the next UK general election be?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3165d0d1-547c-4104-8eb7-3c7508298b8d", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 4, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a9bd15c4-95dd-49eb-8a3d-f546209bd444", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If Keir Starmer is leader of Labour in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/e06b7c2f-a385-4c3c-9fa9-00787ac6aed3", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11.5, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a second Brexit referendum announced before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2461fab4-c594-49fd-9b2a-acdfc52356ba", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 5, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the tuition fee cap for UK students in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fbc91180-f338-449d-a795-234ac42854ec", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 3, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "If there is a soft Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f3d44e2b-4d2a-47bd-acbd-61cab5e6a126", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "If there is a hard Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8221741f-ac27-4651-bf2c-7a887fc82313", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 3, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be mean UK broadband download speeds in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fb8780cd-e2b3-4435-bf50-c46fed1db5a8", + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": [], + "numforecasts": 3, + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Universe end?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.22999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.\nThe question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether \"The Universe\" will end. \nEven posing this question is not very straightforward, as \"The Universe\" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.\nWhen we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the \"sky\" at some \"distance.\" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [\"observiball\"](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [\"lightcone,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.\nTurning this around to look into the future, we can consider the \"Affectiball,\" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.\nWe can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [\"heat death\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that \"interesting things\" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:\nIs the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?\nIf so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)\n", + "numforecasts": 567, + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n", + "numforecasts": 5071, + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. \nWho will win? \nResolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.\n", - "numforecasts": 828, + "numforecasts": 838, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -7276,7 +8559,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the quest for \"strong\" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is \"brain emulation,\" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. \nIn an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such \"Ems\" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)\nTo gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of \"Ems\" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:\nWill the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains? \nResolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.\n(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)\n", - "numforecasts": 420, + "numforecasts": 421, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -7297,7 +8580,7 @@ } ], "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", - "numforecasts": 860, + "numforecasts": 864, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -7318,7 +8601,7 @@ } ], "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n", - "numforecasts": 960, + "numforecasts": 964, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -7380,17 +8663,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question.\nThe basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html).)\nThe ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservation-prize-be-awarded-by-the-brain-preservation-foundation/) regarding the \"large brain preservation prize\" discusses some of the advances. Many questions remain however, including: Is it even in principle possible to reconstruct an individual human mind out of a frozen brain? If so, how much accuracy in preservation is necessary? Do current techniques have the requisite accuracy? How advanced will the reconstruction technology be, and when would/might that exist? etc., etc.\nLet's assume that an individual as of the reading of the question signs up with one of the top three (by number of currently preserved individuals). \nWhat is the probability that the individual will \"wake up\" in essentially the same or better form than they died? \nWe'll consider success if the revived individual has full mental faculties, an essentially complete set of memories of their former life, and a personality that is at least difficult for them or others to discern from the original. We'll assume for these purposes that the individual's last heartbeat (at least for some time) occurs in a hospital or similar setting where the body can be immediately cooled and moved (if not there already) to a facility for cryonic preservation, and that the individual dies with a relatively healthy brain intact.\nNote: like a few other Metaculus questions, we don't expect this to actually resolve. Rather it is a \"headline\" question that could fold in the results of others. Suggestions for shorter-term, resolvable questions that would bear upon the probabilities of this one are invited in the comments below.\n", - "numforecasts": 546, + "numforecasts": 552, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -7495,7 +8778,7 @@ } ], "description": "Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.\nAccording to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.\nMore recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions \"as well as the average 11th-grade American student.\" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS \"uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015.\" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.\nThis is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:\nBy end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? \nResolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.\n", - "numforecasts": 686, + "numforecasts": 693, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -7537,7 +8820,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n", - "numforecasts": 606, + "numforecasts": 651, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -7558,7 +8841,7 @@ } ], "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? \nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 696, + "numforecasts": 697, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -7631,17 +8914,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. \nUp-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/)\nFor the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. \nThe highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. \nBut the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain.\nThis uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensive, and so far has not proven commercially valuable. On the other hand a successful colonization effort could result in many thousands of people off world. \nBecause of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the population be higher than the current maximum?\nWill the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13? \nIf clarification is needed of what counts as \"human\", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). \"Off of planet Earth\" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records.\n", - "numforecasts": 472, + "numforecasts": 478, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -7798,7 +9081,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.\nWe are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.\nIt is asked:\nBy 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? \n", - "numforecasts": 430, + "numforecasts": 433, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -7808,7 +9091,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.\nInternational bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.\nOthers speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).\nDespite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.\nWhat do you think? When will we cross the threshold? \nFor a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. \n(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)\n", - "numforecasts": 363, + "numforecasts": 365, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -7850,7 +9133,7 @@ } ], "description": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\nCoins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\nAlthough it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?\n", - "numforecasts": 371, + "numforecasts": 372, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -7871,7 +9154,7 @@ } ], "description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\nThe [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. \nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): \nA generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):\nIt's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.\nCan we get there before the 2030s? \nResolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 448, + "numforecasts": 453, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -7913,17 +9196,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 1091, + "numforecasts": 1101, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -7944,7 +9227,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n", - "numforecasts": 394, + "numforecasts": 395, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -8123,17 +9406,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.\n[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):\nAccording to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.\nThe question is: can we do this?\nKurzgesagt (a.k.a. \"in a nutshell\") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)\nHere are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:\n---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator. \n---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build. \n---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down. \n---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process. \n---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. \nWhat do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?\nQuestion resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.\n", - "numforecasts": 364, + "numforecasts": 366, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -8175,17 +9458,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", - "numforecasts": 1324, + "numforecasts": 1335, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -8216,7 +9499,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The last 115 years of humankind’s relationship with air travel has been mindboggling. On December 17, 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright lifted off in the [fields of Kitty Hawk](https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/wright-brothers/online/fly/1903/). The era of human air travel was born.\nBut skeptics abounded. Yes, we could fly. But could we fly fly? \nFor instance, one famous early doubter told reporters in 1909 that “no airship will ever fly from New York to Paris.” The name of this skeptic? [Wilbur Wright himself!](http://blog.fastforwardlabs.com/2015/08/05/a-flying-machine-from-new-york-to-paris.html)\nJust 38 years later, American pilot and legendary daredevil, Chuck Yeager, broke the manned supersonic flight barrier in USAF aircraft #46-062, a.k.a. the [Glamorous Glennis](https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/bell-x-1). \nWired Magazine offers some of the [juicy engineering details](https://www.wired.com/story/its-the-70th-anniversary-of-the-first-supersonic-flight/) of Yeager's feat:\nThe Bell X-1 had a radical new “all flying tail\" that allowed Yeager to maintain control as the air compressed ahead of his plane, drastically increasing drag. (This is still standard on supersonic military jets today.) It also has thin wings and a sharply pointed nose to help it slice through the air. As he fired the final two chambers of the rocket powered plane, Yeager finally pushed through that sound barrier, to a speed of Mach 1.06, making him the fastest man on Earth.\nCommercial planes—most famously the Concorde—soon followed suit, allowing regular folk (with scads of disposable income) to experience the magic of faster-than-sound air travel for themselves.\nBut after the Concorde [got grounded](https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/2203042/concorde-stop-flying-where-displayed/) in 2003, we haven’t seen any commercial supersonic transport (SST) attempts get off the ground.\nThat may be changing. Quickly.\n[Per Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/garystoller/2017/12/05/is-the-age-of-the-concorde-and-supersonic-flights-returning/#591635084cfb), the Denver-based Boom (in conjunction with Japan Airlines) plans to reignite SST travel:\n[it will] develop a supersonic aircraft that flies at Mach 2.2 and will cut current airline flight times in half. The Concorde flew at Mach 2.0, and today’s commercial jets fly at Mach 0.85. Boom says its jets will fly from New York to London in three hours and 15 minutes, enabling business people to leave early in the morning, make afternoon and evening meetings in England, and return home in time to tuck their kids into bed. \nBoom’s goal: [commercial SST flight by 2023](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/supersonic-air-travel-just-took-another-big-step-toward-its-ncna828431). The [company's site](https://boomsupersonic.com/airliner) describes a 55-seat aircraft and tickets in the $2500 range.\nWhat do you think? When will the next commercial flight break the sound barrier? \nResolution is at the date/time at which a supersonic flight is flown on an aircraft designed for passenger use and operated by a company intending to use it for such purpose, over a distance of more than 1000 km. The contemplated timeline runs from late-2018 through 2030.\nETA 2020-11-26: Rockets or any type of hypersonic aircraft do not count as qualifying aircrafts for the purpose of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 269, + "numforecasts": 281, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -8237,7 +9520,7 @@ } ], "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 582, + "numforecasts": 583, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -8248,17 +9531,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n", - "numforecasts": 363, + "numforecasts": 365, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -8269,17 +9552,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08999999999999997, + "probability": 0.07999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\n
  • There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
    • \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 306, + "numforecasts": 309, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -8321,7 +9604,7 @@ } ], "description": "For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy.\nThe human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality.\nCurrently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders.\nBut by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. \nPer Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story:\nBy 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as now, Lagos with its current 20 million people could be home to more people than the state of California.\nThe demographers' full paper is [here](http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247816663557). \nThe International Institute for Environment and Development goes into detail about why Hoornweg and Pope are so bullish on Africa [here](https://www.iied.org/will-africa-have-worlds-largest-cities-2100).\nWhether it's Lagos that claims the crown or some other city in Africa or elsewhere, what do you think? Will some metro hit 100M people by 2100? (For the estimate we will include the general metropolitan area rather than the strict city boundaries, as done [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population#Urban_areas_(Top_100).))\n", - "numforecasts": 271, + "numforecasts": 272, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -8435,7 +9718,7 @@ } ], "description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n", - "numforecasts": 280, + "numforecasts": 281, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -8467,17 +9750,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The \"global\" value is the relevant one here.)\nWill this goal be realized? \nThe WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.\n", - "numforecasts": 248, + "numforecasts": 258, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -8610,7 +9893,7 @@ } ], "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n
  • A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
  • A single important ‘deployment’ event
  • Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)
    • \n", - "numforecasts": 497, + "numforecasts": 498, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -8652,7 +9935,7 @@ } ], "description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)\nThe question asks: \nIF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP? \nIf no award is given during this century the question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n1--61 thought P≠NP. \n2--9 thought P=NP. \n3--4 thought that it is independent. \n4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. \n5--1 said it would depend on the model. \n6--22 offered no opinion. \n", - "numforecasts": 205, + "numforecasts": 206, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -8693,7 +9976,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nWill resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with > 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n", - "numforecasts": 506, + "numforecasts": 509, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -8714,7 +9997,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the US, enrollment in 4-year colleges has been steadily increasing since the 1970s, [from around 17.1% to 29.9% in 2015.](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp )\nDespite this, the economist Bryan Caplan [has recently argued](https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11225.html) that this time spent in college by an increasing proportion of youth is wasteful, as the primary function of education is not to enhance students' skill but to certify their intelligence, work ethic, and conformity — in other words, to signal the qualities of a good employee.\nAs increasing numbers of students get more degrees, the harder it becomes to remain competitive in the job market without spending lots of time in education — essentially creating a prisoner's dilemma in which it is individually rational, but socially harmful to waste evermore time getting degrees. This has made some confident that educational enrolment will only increase over time, including the aforementioned economist [who has been placing bets on this.](https://www.econlib.org/education-the-betting-continues/)\nWill the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges in 2025 be more than 10% lower than in 2015?\nSince the 2015 rate is 29.9%, positive resolution is conditional on a rate 26.91% or less in 2025 [as reported by data from the National Center for Education Statistics](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp ).\n", - "numforecasts": 187, + "numforecasts": 188, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -8724,7 +10007,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n", - "numforecasts": 221, + "numforecasts": 223, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -8921,7 +10204,7 @@ } ], "description": "It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.\nBy 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years or less?\nThe question resolves positively the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "numforecasts": 248, + "numforecasts": 249, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -9057,7 +10340,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n", - "numforecasts": 189, + "numforecasts": 190, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -9068,17 +10351,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31999999999999995, + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored. \nThis finding was later found for human brains by various studies, and it contradicted the previous longstanding \"dogma\" that adult brains don't form new neurons. The current leading theory of why NG occurs in the adult HC (if it does) is that it isn't some kind of regulatory failure (cancer, etc.) but that plays some functional role, perhaps in short-term memory storage. \nIn some neuroscience models, we are thought to store massive amounts of info in our HC over the last day or two of our lives, in synaptic connections, and we are also thought to flush this store out regularly, with only a subset of those memories being \"written to the cortex\" for long-term storage, usually while we dream and sleep. Adult NG is presumed by some to help this somehow, or play some other functional role.\nBut a [March 2018 Nature paper](https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/study-finds-no-neurogenesis-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-29987) by Sorrells and Paredes at UCSF recently found sharply decining NG after the age of 1 year in human brains, and no NG in humans after the age of 13 yrs.\nThe Sorrells paper used a more stringent set of surface markers to search for new neurons than previous papers, and it argues previous studies weren't sufficiently rigorous in their neural classification approaches. It has a lot of neuroscientists confused again, as it comes from a respected group using some very careful work, and it concludes that adult humans do not do functionally important neurogenesis over their lifetimes. \nThen in April 2018 a careful stereology-based [study by Boldrini](https://www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/abundant-neurogenesis-found-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-30050) at Columbia, also using postmortem hippocampi, contradicted the Nature paper. Boldrini's paper again argues the 20 year old view that adult human hippocampi continually does NG. They found about 1,000 neural progenitor cells in each of the front, middle, and back regions of the DG at any time, throughout the human lifespan. This is plenty enough, in some models, to be functionally important to human thinking and memory.\nSo which is it? \nEither: \n1-- \nAdult human NG exists and is functionally important to us throughout our lifespan (birth to death), or \n2-- \nNG doesn't exist in significant numbers in older humans, or if it does occur it isn't functionally important.\nAssuming we find out by 2028, which will it be? Resolution is positive for option 1.\nResolves positive if a definitive study or set of studies best accords with option 1, negative if it best accords with option 2. We'll define \"definitive\" as at least one study published in a top-tier journal (top 10 in the field by impact factor) with strong evidence for 1 or 2, along with the absence of a competitively compelling publication giving evidence for the other possibility, as of Jan 1 2028. Resolves ambiguous if not definitive.\n", - "numforecasts": 143, + "numforecasts": 146, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -9099,7 +10382,7 @@ } ], "description": "Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as \"Satoshi Nakamoto\", the maverick who developed bitcoin.\nHaven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator):\nON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. \nWill we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.\nQuestion resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??)\n", - "numforecasts": 460, + "numforecasts": 468, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -9109,7 +10392,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n", - "numforecasts": 275, + "numforecasts": 278, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -9234,7 +10517,7 @@ } ], "description": "Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).\nHowever, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. \nThere are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.\nWill the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?\nResolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 126, + "numforecasts": 127, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -9380,17 +10663,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n", - "numforecasts": 414, + "numforecasts": 417, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -9546,7 +10829,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.\nThis question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? \nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.\n", - "numforecasts": 236, + "numforecasts": 237, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -9556,7 +10839,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2018, the record for longest verified human lifespan is held by Jeanne Louise Calment of Arles, France. She lived from 21 February 1875 to 4 August 1997, for a term of 122 years, 164 days.\nShe has held the record for longest confirmed human lifespan since 12 May 1990, was the first human ever to have been confirmed to have lived to the age of 116 years, and is the only human confirmed to have ever lived beyond 120 years. Calment reportedly remained mentally intact until the end of her life, and the New York Times reported that she had been in good health, though almost blind and deaf, as recently as a month before her death. She died of unspecified causes. \nThe oldest verified person currently alive, as of 8 December 2018, is Kane Tanaka of Japan. She was born on 2 January 1903 and at time of question writing is 115 years, 338 days old. If she is still alive on January 1 2050, she will be 146 years, 11 months, 30 days old. \nHere are the lists of oldest [verified people ever](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people), and [the oldest currently living](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_oldest_living_people) people.\nAs of January 1 2050, what will be the longest verified human lifespan on record, in years?\nTo avoid ambiguity in the event that someone is unconscious (perhaps for a long time) before their death, this question shall focus on age at legal death. If a person is declared legally dead by competent authorities, their age at the time their legal death takes effect shall be considered their age at death, even in the event that their physical body may still exist and certain biological functions may be maintained by extraordinary means. In case a person successfully emerges from cryopreservation between now and 2050, all time spent legally dead before and during cryopreservation shall be deducted from their lifespan.\nI have selected a maximum age possibility of 200, substantially above the maximum possible if Ms Tanaka lives to 2050, to account for the possibility that there are substantially older persons currently alive but unknown to gerontologists, or people with unverified claims whose claims subsequently become verified.\n", - "numforecasts": 178, + "numforecasts": 179, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -9692,17 +10975,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network)\nThe fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind.\nSince the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes.\nThis question asks: At any point before 2030, will it once again be possible by any commercial means to travel between London and New York in less than three hours?\nTo resolve positively, at least one living human must make the journey from inside the metropolitan area of either New York City, United States or Greater London, United Kingdom, to inside the metropolitan area of the other city in under three hours any point before January 1 2030 by commercially available means, including chartered privately owned or operated civil aircraft or spacecraft, but not military aircraft or spacecraft.\nThe clock starts at the moment the journey itself begins (i.e. excluding time spent checking in, going through a security process, waiting on the tarmac at an airport before takeoff, et cetera.)\n", - "numforecasts": 273, + "numforecasts": 280, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -9889,7 +11172,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) defines spaceflight as any flight above 100 kilometres (62 mi) above Earth's sea level.\nThe first human spaceflight occured in 12 April 1961, and as of June 17, 2018, a total of [561 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_travelers_by_name) had gone to space according to that definition. This works out to about 10 people per year since 1961, but progress has not been linear or continuous. \nAs of December 2018, the spacecraft with the highest crew capacity to have ever been sucessfully launched on a crewed mission is the now-retired [Space Shuttle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle), which could be configured to carry up to 10 astronauts at once, but [never actually carried more than eight.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-71) In recent years, proposals have been made for a new generation of super-heavy (and beyond) [spaceships capable of taking 100 or more humans to space in a single launch.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket)) \nThis question asks: When will the 10,000th human reach space?\nResolves positively if and when credible media reports announce that a person has become the 10,000th human to reach an altitude of 100km above Earth's sea level, or if and when the same announcement is credibly made by any national or international space agency. Entering orbit is not necessary - any flight above 100km will qualify.\nPersons born above this altitude (including on space stations or on astronomical objects other than Earth) are not included for purposes of this question, unless they later complete a qualifying spaceflight. Flights made from bodies other than Earth do not count. \nPersons must be alive and conscious (e.g. not in suspended animation or some other state of unconsciousness or minimal consciousness) when they cross the 100km boundary, but need not survive their full mission beyond that point in order to be counted.\nFinally, the number refers to the number of people to have made the flight, not the total number of flights - reflights made by the same person do not add to the total.\n", - "numforecasts": 150, + "numforecasts": 154, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -9910,7 +11193,7 @@ } ], "description": "A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) \nThere are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. \nSome identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. \nSome nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States \"SPACE Act of 2015,\" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.\nOn 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. \nAccording to the article § 51303 of the law: \"A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.\" \nIn February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to \"jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space\" by, among other things, creating a \"legal framework\" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would \"invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg.\" In 2017, it became the \"first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space\", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.\n[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?\nResolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred. \nResources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples.\n", - "numforecasts": 238, + "numforecasts": 239, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -9983,7 +11266,7 @@ } ], "description": "[warning: links may contain spoilers]\n[George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers).\nMany of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1).\nFor instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publication date of the next instalment, Winds of Winter, [keeps getting pushed back](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter#Publication_date) (it was at one point announced to be in 2016); and the narrative of the TV show is now much further along the books', [finishing entirely this coming year](https://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones/season-8-returning-2019).\nAlso: GRRM is now 70 years old, and not getting any younger. People have openly speculated that he might die before he finishes ASOIAF. When confronted with these speculations, GRRM [does not respond well](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/game-of-thrones-author-george-rr-martin-says-f-you-to-fans-who-fear-he-will-die-before-finishing-9596265.html).\nThis question asks the following:\nWill George R. R. Martin die before the official publication date of the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire?\nDetails: \n--- \nI have not specified the name of the 'final book' as [\"A Dream of Spring\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#A_Dream_of_Spring) in case that is not actually the last title in the series. He might change the name, or decide that more than eight books are needed; he's split planned instalments before, and the previous link includes a quote where he suggests he could do so again.\n--- \nFor a book to fulfil resolution criteria, GRRM or his representatives must announce the book as being the full resolution of the series prior to its publication. It should not be described as the [posthumous] publication of an edited incomplete draft or similar (which would make it analogous to [The Salmon of Doubt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Salmon_of_Doubt) or [Unfinished Tales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfinished_Tales)).\n------The Metaculus community consensus should agree that the book is an 'acceptable attempted resolution' to the ASOIAF story arc, and the print version should ideally include indications that the book is the end of the story (e.g. \"The End\" printed on the final pages). (The intention of this criterion is to avoid a situation where GRRM or his publishers say that they're releasing the final book but the story isn't actually 'done', to the extent that there are so many unresolved plot points and 'missing' foreshadowed events that it's clear that the narrative has been significantly cut short from what was originally planned by GRRM. Of course, it's almost inevitable that there will be one or two loose ends at the end, but that's not what I'm describing. I hope the Metaculus community will be sensible enough to draw the desired distinction.) \n", - "numforecasts": 329, + "numforecasts": 332, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -9993,7 +11276,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 96, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -10004,17 +11287,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 476, + "numforecasts": 488, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -10118,7 +11401,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.\nIn the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?\nWhen will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?\nThe question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously.\nAn [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 133, + "numforecasts": 134, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -10190,7 +11473,7 @@ } ], "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 606, + "numforecasts": 608, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -10356,7 +11639,7 @@ } ], "description": "A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. \nIf the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the disease causing agent(s) are confirmed by a credible medical source to be different than those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious 'behavior', or capabilities of the agent are confirmed different than the original. This is to exclude infections that are medically indistuingishable from the natural version, which might make cases too difficult to verify. \nThe consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least capable of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect.\nWill such an agent infect 100 people by 2030? \nThis question resolves positive if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed \"infected\" by one or more confirmed synthetic \"biological weapon\"s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause.\n", - "numforecasts": 152, + "numforecasts": 153, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -10367,17 +11650,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [The euro is the second largest and second most traded currency in the global foreign exchange market after the United States dollar.](https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf)\nThe Eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Other EU states (except for Denmark and the United Kingdom) are obliged to join once they meet the criteria to do so.\nNo state has left, and there are no provisions to do so or to be expelled.\nAndorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City have formal agreements with the EU to use the euro as their official currency and issue their own coins, and Kosovo and Montenegro have adopted the euro unilaterally, but these countries do not officially form part of the Eurozone and do not have representation in the European Central Bank (ECB) or in the Eurogroup.\nThis question asks: On or before January 1 2025, will any full Member State of the Eurozone as of February 10 2019 (that is, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain) cease to use the Euro as its official currency? \nNote that this question does not apply to Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Kosovo, Montenegro, or any states that come to be Eurozone members after February 10 2019; only those expressly listed in the paragraph above. This question also does not apply to the overseas territories of countries which have agreements to use the euro (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and Saint-Barthélemy.)\nResolution is by citation of a press release from the Government or Central Bank of any of the relevant countries, or by credible media reports in the financial press, to the effect that the relevant country actually starts the process of phasing out the Euro as its official currency before 2025, and replacing it with either an existing currency (including but not limited to the US dollar, British pound, Japanese Yen and other reserve currencies extant as of 2019) or introducing (or re-introducing) a national currency of its own. A decision to temporarily leave the Eurozone for a fixed period or until certain conditions are met shall also suffice for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 215, + "numforecasts": 216, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -10585,7 +11868,7 @@ } ], "description": "The 2008 financial crisis was [\"considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nAccording to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&start=1961&view=chart)), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%).\nQuestion: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?\nEstimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers.\nThis question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/).\n", - "numforecasts": 766, + "numforecasts": 769, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -10596,17 +11879,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 1049, + "numforecasts": 1061, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -10648,7 +11931,7 @@ } ], "description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n", - "numforecasts": 159, + "numforecasts": 161, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -10773,7 +12056,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016.\nFarage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the [2016 Brexit vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019. \nIn May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom), becoming by far the largest party by number of UK seats in the European Parliament, and also the largest single party overall in the European Parliament. \nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?\nResolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 209, + "numforecasts": 212, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -10846,7 +12129,7 @@ } ], "description": "Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024.\nWill the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.\nSee also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/)\n", - "numforecasts": 197, + "numforecasts": 201, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -10898,7 +12181,7 @@ } ], "description": "A sister question asks when the [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) will be resolved - here we ask which way it will turn out.\nAgain, let's say that the Collatz Program in pseudocode is:\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere n is a positive integer.\nThe Conjecture is that for all integer inputs the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1).\nFor any particular execution of the Collatz program, there are three possible outcomes:\n1) It moves up and down through input arguments of different sizes, until it encounters a power of 2, and then cascades down to 1, and halts.\n2) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes until it repeats a number. From that point onward it will repeat a cycle, and never halt.\n3) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes, but keeps expanding its frontier of numerical size, without ever repeating an input or encountering a power of 2. In this case, it will never halt.\nPer [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture), Jeffrey Lagarias in 2010 claimed that based only on known information about this problem, \"this is an extraordinarily difficult problem, completely out of reach of present day mathematics.\"\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a positive proof of the Conjecture (i.e. that the Collatz Program halts for all integer inputs) in a major Mathematics journal before June 21, 2520. It will resolve negatively if there is a publication of a disconfirmation in a major mathematics journal before that time. \nIf the Conjecture has neither been proven nor disproven before that time, it will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", - "numforecasts": 179, + "numforecasts": 187, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -10939,7 +12222,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true, when it will be resolved one way or the other, and whether a corresponding halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.\nFor completeness and symmetry, this question asks when the halting problem will be resolved.\nWe can write the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nPossible inputs to collatz() are divided into three sets:\n---Set 1: Inputs for which collatz() halts, after eventually encountering a power of 2 \n---Set 2: Inputs for which collatz() eventually encounters a number twice, and then cycles forever \n---Set 3: Inputs that cause collatz() to forever avoid both repetition and powers of 2, exploring larger and larger numbers \nThe Conjecture is that all integers belong to Set 1, and that Sets 2 and 3 are empty.\nThe halting problem for the Collatz Program asks whether there can exist a program that takes as input an integer n, always halts itself, and returns 1 if collatz(n) halts and 0 if it does not halt. \nIt is possible that the Conjecture is false, and also that the halting problem for the Collatz Problem is not computable, in the same sense that the more general [Halting Problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halting_problem) is not computable.\nThere are a number of ways in which it could turn out that the halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.\n---If the Conjecture is true (and collatz()) always halts) then the halt-checking program is trivial: always return 1. \n---If the Conjecture is false, but Sets 2 and 3 are finite, then a halt-checking program could check a finite list of inputs for which to return 0, and return 1 otherwise. \n---If all inputs are either in Set 1 (halts) or Set 2 (cycles), then a modified version of collatz() could run until it either halts (returning 1) or detects a cycle (returning 0). Similarly, if Set 3 is finite, then a combination of checking a finite list and checking for cycles would suffice. \n---Possibly all three sets are infinite, but there is still some simple (or at least computable) rule that can determine membership without running collatz() forever. \nWhen will this halting problem be resolved? It could be:\n---At exactly the same time that the Collatz Conjecture is resolved, especially if the Conjecture is shown to be true. \n---Later than the Conjecture is shown to be false. It could be that no algorithm is found for separating Set 1 from Sets 2 and 3, but also no proof is found that such an algorithm cannot exist. \n---Earlier than the Conjecture is resolved (as was pointed out in a comment on a related question). It could be proven, for example, that only a finite number of inputs cause collatz() to not halt, without resolving whether that number is zero. \nThis question will resolve with the date of publication in a major mathematics journal of an article that either 1) proves the Conjecture to be true (with the halting problem as a trivial implication), or 2) explicitly resolves the halting problem.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -10950,17 +12233,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018.\nIn any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels?\nResolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 347, + "numforecasts": 361, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -11011,7 +12294,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://(https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/)) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/).\nWhen will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon?\nThis question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036.\nSee also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/)\n", - "numforecasts": 119, + "numforecasts": 120, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -11154,7 +12437,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person.\nIn 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?\nResolution:\n---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) \n---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. \n---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 157, + "numforecasts": 159, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -11246,7 +12529,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n", - "numforecasts": 124, + "numforecasts": 127, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -11276,7 +12559,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). \nRecently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.\n[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.\nWhen will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?\nThis question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.\n", - "numforecasts": 129, + "numforecasts": 134, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -11286,7 +12569,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). An IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8).\nWhen will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a privately held clean meat company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.\nFor the purpose of this question, a company is a \"clean meat company\" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\", \"cultivated meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean meat company XYZ holds initial public offering\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n", - "numforecasts": 203, + "numforecasts": 208, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -11296,7 +12579,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years.\nAlternative meat product company valuations can take off quickly, as illustrated by the example of Beyond Meat, which within 10 years has grown its market capitalisation [beyond $10bn](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=beyond+meat+market+cap&meta=).\nWhen will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn, in 2019 prices?\nResolution\nPositive resolution requires that, within six months after the clean meat company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultivated meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property. \nCompany valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n", - "numforecasts": 128, + "numforecasts": 130, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -11336,7 +12619,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)):\nStarlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-performance satellite bus and requisite customer ground transceivers to implement a new space-based Internet communication system.\nAccording to [this Space News article](https://spacenews.com/fcc-oks-lower-orbit-for-some-starlink-satellites/), they intend to launch 12 000 satellites by the end of 2027. As of the 22nd of March 2019, 62 have been launched (at least [57 are operational](https://spacenews.com/contact-lost-with-three-starlink-satellites-other-57-healthy/)), with 60 more scheduled in October 2019. Quite a long way to go.\nQuestion: How many Starlink satellites will be in orbit and operational at the end of 2027?\nResolution details:\n---Resolution is by credible media report. \n---This is insensitive to the project changing name, being bought by another company, etc. as long as it is the same project as judged by a Metaculus admin. \n---The end of 2027 is 2027-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. \n", - "numforecasts": 186, + "numforecasts": 188, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -11498,7 +12781,7 @@ } ], "description": "Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is.\nStats to consider:\nDistance\n---Mars: between 55 and 400 million km from Earth (0.37 to 2.7 AU). It comes nearest to Earth every 2.14 years, or ~26 months. \n---The Moon: ~0.38 million km from Earth (~0.0026 AU). \nOne-way communication lag\n---Mars: between 3 to 22 minutes \n---The Moon: ~1.3 seconds \nGravity\n---Mars: 0.38 g \n---The Moon: 0.17 g \nRotation period\n---Mars: 25 hours \n---The Moon: 1 month \nAtmosphere\n---Mars: mostly CO2, at ~1% the pressure of Earth's. \n---The Moon: negligible if any. \nSolar energy\n---Mars: ~44% of Earth's, but occasional dust storms can bring this down to almost nothing. \n---The Moon: same as Earth's, but with no clouds or other interference. \nThis question is resolved when either the Moon or Mars has 10,000 people living on the body who have been residents for 3+ years at the time of counting. I've chosen 3 years to exclude people who arrive on Mars during one Earth-Mars opposition and leave during the next. \nResidents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, are not counted for this question.\n'Residence' is defined and determined by the government or entity administering the colony, or a similar official source.\nIn case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans.\nResolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100.\n", - "numforecasts": 233, + "numforecasts": 234, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -11580,7 +12863,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report:\nSince 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006.\nWill US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?\nThis question resolves on the basis of data published by the Congressional Research Service.\n", - "numforecasts": 93, + "numforecasts": 94, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -11672,7 +12955,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 252, + "numforecasts": 253, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -11866,7 +13149,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 182, + "numforecasts": 183, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -12010,7 +13293,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70.\n", - "numforecasts": 200, + "numforecasts": 203, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -12131,7 +13414,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Developing reuscitation technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation. And since cryonics organisations can fail and thaw the preserved bodies, it would be better if such technology would be developed earlier rather than later.\nTo find out when such technology will be developed, this question asks: When will the first person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded, conditional on this occurring before 1. January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n", - "numforecasts": 96, + "numforecasts": 97, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -12192,7 +13475,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)).\nThe [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html):\nThe Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. \nQuestion: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?\nResolution details:\n---This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. \n---This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports. \n---In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable. \n---If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached. \n", - "numforecasts": 193, + "numforecasts": 199, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -12325,7 +13608,7 @@ } ], "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) \nWill ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n", - "numforecasts": 227, + "numforecasts": 228, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -12377,7 +13660,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. \nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars. \nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)), which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is [due to be fully operational by the late 2020s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)#Constellation_design_and_status) Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation [may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-future-multibillion-dollar-valuation-starlink-internet-morgan-stanley-2019-9?r=US&IR=T)\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, [crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015.](https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1196147909647044608) As of 2019, the company is reportedly [valued at $33.3 billion.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/spacex-valuation-33point3-billion-after-starlink-satellites-fundraising.html)\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. \nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 398, + "numforecasts": 400, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -12593,7 +13876,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n", - "numforecasts": 142, + "numforecasts": 145, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -12666,7 +13949,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 513, + "numforecasts": 515, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -12781,17 +14064,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41000000000000003, + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", - "numforecasts": 307, + "numforecasts": 317, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -12812,7 +14095,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n", - "numforecasts": 1246, + "numforecasts": 1247, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -12853,17 +14136,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.31999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n", - "numforecasts": 169, + "numforecasts": 170, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -12966,7 +14249,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive. \nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100. \nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? \nOne issue is that AGI is rather difficult to precisely define. A separate question addresses a similar issue by asking about [human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) in a particular adversarial test. Here we'd like a definition that connects more closely with established benchmarks for various capabilities; it also sets an arguably somewhat lower bar.\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n", - "numforecasts": 454, + "numforecasts": 458, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -13007,7 +14290,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nThis question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n", - "numforecasts": 155, + "numforecasts": 159, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -13059,7 +14342,7 @@ } ], "description": "In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.\nLike most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?\nSome specifics:\n---Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model). \n---Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total. \n---Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date. \n---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. \n---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). \n---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. \n", - "numforecasts": 401, + "numforecasts": 402, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13369,7 +14652,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.\nQuestion: When will the United States admit a new state?\nThis question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A \"new state\" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019.\nIt resolves as \"> Dec 31, 2050\" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.\n", - "numforecasts": 159, + "numforecasts": 160, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -13431,7 +14714,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue?\nThe admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 215, + "numforecasts": 216, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -13493,7 +14776,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.\nThis question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question can be resolved at any time.\n", - "numforecasts": 279, + "numforecasts": 280, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13597,7 +14880,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 243, + "numforecasts": 245, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13691,17 +14974,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", - "numforecasts": 2561, + "numforecasts": 2576, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13743,7 +15026,7 @@ } ], "description": "An oracle ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem#Oracle), [Lesswrongwiki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI)) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors.\nThis question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally superhuman AI is developed first, the question will immediately resolve negatively. By default, the question will resolve ambiguously on the resolve date, 2099-12-31.\nSuccessful creation of either technology would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderators.\n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13854,7 +15137,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", - "numforecasts": 161, + "numforecasts": 162, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -13978,7 +15261,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.\nThis question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. \nThis question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).\nResolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. \nIn case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.\nOther questions in the series. \nHow many new cases of COVID-19 in:\n---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) \nSimilar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n", - "numforecasts": 794, + "numforecasts": 813, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -13988,7 +15271,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", - "numforecasts": 145, + "numforecasts": 149, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -14144,17 +15427,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 1072, + "numforecasts": 1080, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -14175,7 +15458,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", - "numforecasts": 567, + "numforecasts": 570, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -14216,7 +15499,7 @@ } ], "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n", - "numforecasts": 193, + "numforecasts": 194, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -14278,7 +15561,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n", - "numforecasts": 198, + "numforecasts": 199, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -14359,7 +15642,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n", - "numforecasts": 256, + "numforecasts": 266, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -14410,17 +15693,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is \"Will the US Experience a Depression?\" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):\nA depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.\nAccording to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). \n---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. \n", - "numforecasts": 345, + "numforecasts": 347, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -14430,7 +15713,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n", - "numforecasts": 192, + "numforecasts": 196, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -14440,7 +15723,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 414, + "numforecasts": 418, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -14450,7 +15733,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 175, + "numforecasts": 176, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -14574,7 +15857,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank\nis designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity.\nAs of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?\n", - "numforecasts": 222, + "numforecasts": 225, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -14708,17 +15991,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n", - "numforecasts": 168, + "numforecasts": 169, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -14749,17 +16032,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n", - "numforecasts": 519, + "numforecasts": 529, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -14769,7 +16052,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [a review](https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315) of the economic impacts of climate change,\nThe impacts of climate change are many and diverse. Determining whether these impacts are beneficial or detrimental, small or large, depends on the sector, location, and time being considered. Unfortunately, a reading of the literature on the impacts of climate change (Field and Canziani 2014) is likely to leave a lay reader confused. It is very difficult to make sense of the many and different effects: crops hit by worsening drought, crops growing faster because of carbon dioxide fertilization, heat stress increasing, cold stress decreasing, sea levels rising, increasing energy demand for cooling, decreasing energy demand for heating, infectious disease spreading, species going extinct. Thus we need aggregate indicators to assess whether climate change is, on balance, a good thing or a bad thing and whether the climate problem is small or large relative to the many other problems that society faces.\nA common aggregate measure economists have given is the impact of climate change on GDP by the end of the century. From a [2015 survey of climate economists](https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/expertconsensusreport.pdf),\nOn average, these experts predicted losses of between 5% and 10% of GDP [by 2090], though there was considerable variation. The mean and median estimates were GDP losses of 10.2% and 5.5%, respectively, with a variance of 133%.\nHere I will define damage incurred by climate change as the time-integral of the difference in non-discounted value of world GDP on a path with warming-inducing emissions as a percentage of total GDP along the path without emissions.\nThis question asks, what will be the total damage incurred by climate change during the 21st century, as given by the definition of damage above? The resolution will be determined by a credible estimate from economists in, or after the year 2101.\nMetaculus admins will determine, in consultation with the community, which estimate is most credible. In general, a robust meta-analysis which aggregates estimates from high-quality studies is the best source for resolution. Barring the availability of such a meta-analysis, a survey of experts is preferred. Barring the availability of either source, a high quality study will determine resolution. If none of these sources are available, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 27, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -14882,7 +16165,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In September 2019 Fahy et al. [published](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028) results from the TRIIM (Thymus Regeneration, Immunorestoration, and Insulin Mitigation) trial. Their stated goals were to investigate whether they could restore the immune systems in eight healthy older men (ages 51 - 65) using a combination of recombinant human growth hormone, dehydroepiandrosterone and metformin. While they achieved impressive on-paper results partially restoring the [thymus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thymus), the most impressive result came from their [epigenetic measurement of aging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigenetic_clock) of subjects in the trial.\nFahy et al. had successfully reversed aging in their subjects according to four epigenetic measures of aging. The effect size was large: each measure indicated an average gain of over 2 years after 1 year of treatment. In other words, if hypothetically a subject was 60 years old at the beginning of the trial, both chronologically and epigenetically, then by the end of the year they would be 61 years old chronologically but less than 59 years old epigenetically.\nOf the epigenetic measures of aging, GrimAge is thought to be the best available predictor of lifespan. From [the paper](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6366976/) introducing GrimAge,\nUsing large scale validation data from thousands of individuals, we demonstrate that DNAm GrimAge stands out among existing epigenetic clocks in terms of its predictive ability for time-to-death, time-to-coronary heart disease, time-to-cancer, its strong relationship with computed tomography data for fatty liver/excess visceral fat, and age-at-menopause.\nFahy et al. demonstrated a mean age reversal of 2.16 years after 1 year of treatment according to the GrimAge measurement (see Table 1 in [the paper](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028)).\nFahy is reportedly spearheading a new trial, called TRIIM-X (see [this part of his recent TEDx talk](https://youtu.be/PFg-OMHvI2E?t=968)). He hopes to investigate the effects of a modified version of the same treatment with the benefits of a larger trial and a more diverse set of participants.\nThis question asks, after 12 months of treatment, what will be the mean expected lifespan gain after taking the directed treatment in the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by GrimAge?\nIf for whatever reason, the relevant GrimAge results from TRIIM-X are not released by January 1st 2027, this question resolves ambiguously. If the results are informally published (as indicated by some reliable online document of any kind) at some point prior to January 1st 2027, the question resolves retroactively on the date the document was published.\n", - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 33, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -14912,7 +16195,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture.\nWhen will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT?\nDefine a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese.\nA vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. \nMore narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators.\nThe date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain.\n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -14963,7 +16246,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "At the end of April, NASA [announced](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) the selection of three private companies to develop a lunar lander:\nNASA has selected three U.S. companies to design and develop human landing systems (HLS) for the agency’s Artemis program, one of which will land the first woman and next man on the surface of the Moon by 2024.\nThe three companies are:\n1--Blue Origin \n2--Dynetics \n3--SpaceX \nThis question asks: Which of these three companies will be first in developing a lunar landing system that successfully lands a person on the moon?\nThis question will resolve to precisely 1,2 or 3 when a lander build by the respective team successfully lands a living human on the moon. In the case that none of the 3 successfully lands a living human on the moon before January 1, 2030, the question will resolve to a value of 0.\nIf two of the teams merge or NASA selects a different company to develop a lunar lander, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -15025,7 +16308,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", - "numforecasts": 166, + "numforecasts": 168, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -15056,7 +16339,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars.\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan?\nThe date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars.\nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 33, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -15066,7 +16349,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.\n[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or \"National Debt\" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm)\n[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/)\nThis question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars?\nResolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics.\n", - "numforecasts": 104, + "numforecasts": 111, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -15250,7 +16533,7 @@ } ], "description": "In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades.\nWashington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html)\nThe Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.\nThe matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.\nA senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.\nThe meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.\nThe National Security Council declined to comment.\nThis question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place. \nThere is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 117, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -15260,7 +16543,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n", - "numforecasts": 271, + "numforecasts": 280, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -15270,7 +16553,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -15352,7 +16635,7 @@ } ], "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 119, + "numforecasts": 121, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -15373,7 +16656,7 @@ } ], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand.\nAccording to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358).\n\nQuestion and Resolution\n=======================\n\nWill there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 39, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -15465,7 +16748,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n", - "numforecasts": 137, + "numforecasts": 154, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -15475,7 +16758,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "When the Pope dies [(or resigns)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI), the Cardinals of the Cathlic Church convene a [Papal Conclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave) to elect the Pope's successor. This mysterious procedure culminates in the [fumata](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave#The_fumata_(smoke)), traditionally the burning of the ballots. Black smoke indicates that the ballot was inconclusive, while white smoke indicates that [a new Pope has been elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habemus_papam).\nThis question resolves as the first date and time (after question launch, before 2036-12-17) at which white smoke is emitted from the building in which a Papal Conclave is meeting.\nIf the Catholic Church or Papacy dissolves during or in the wake of Pope Francis' papacy, question resolves ambiguous. However, if both institutions are remain effectively intact, this question closes on 2036-12-17 (Pope Francis' 100th birthday). Should Pope Francis still be alive and Pope at that time, this question resolves as >2036-12-17.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -15505,7 +16788,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the S&P 500 index achieve?\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Inflation rates to be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index.\n", - "numforecasts": 202, + "numforecasts": 205, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -15629,7 +16912,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The video live-streaming service [Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/) is primarily used for streaming liveplay of video games. In fact, all 50 of the currently most-followed accounts are video-game streamers, with Fortnite being the most common title played by streamers.\nThe user who currently has the most followers, Ninja, stopped using the platform on August 1, 2019 in order to move to the platform [Mixer.](https://mixer.com/) He still has 14.7m followers on Twitch, despite not having posted a video since then.\nThis question asks: When will a Twitch user have more followers than Ninja?\nQuestion resolves as the first time at which the most-followed account on Twitch is someone other than Ninja. If Ninja’s account is deleted from Twitch, the question will resolve as the time of deletion.\nThis question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.\n", - "numforecasts": 150, + "numforecasts": 151, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -15782,7 +17065,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869.\nWhen will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000?\nThis question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been <1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date.\n", - "numforecasts": 236, + "numforecasts": 240, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -15803,7 +17086,7 @@ } ], "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", - "numforecasts": 382, + "numforecasts": 388, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -15824,7 +17107,7 @@ } ], "description": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\nWill Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity \n---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. \nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.\n", - "numforecasts": 140, + "numforecasts": 141, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -15835,17 +17118,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -15887,7 +17170,7 @@ } ], "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", - "numforecasts": 1290, + "numforecasts": 1301, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -15908,7 +17191,7 @@ } ], "description": "Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.\nAustralia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).\nIn late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: \nWill Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 145, + "numforecasts": 146, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -16000,7 +17283,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the \"war on drugs\" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.\nPsilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.\nIf the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [\"Culture War\"](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.\nThis question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?\nRelated questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)\n[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)\nResolution Criteria:\nThis question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.\nIf the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.\nAdmission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.\n", - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 33, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -16010,7 +17293,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -16030,7 +17313,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n", - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 106, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -16102,7 +17385,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).\nOn March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).\nThis question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):\nimport pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(\"https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv\") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) \n", - "numforecasts": 289, + "numforecasts": 293, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -16122,7 +17405,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.\nIt represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.\nBetween 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).\nThe question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.\nCompanion question:\n---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) \n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "numforecasts": 102, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -16133,17 +17416,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:\n\"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?\"\nThe question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 155, + "numforecasts": 164, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -16153,7 +17436,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.\nIn 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.\n\nWhen will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?\n\n---This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. \n---A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. \n---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. \n---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. \n---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -16358,7 +17641,7 @@ } ], "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass.\n[Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -16565,7 +17848,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n", - "numforecasts": 148, + "numforecasts": 153, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -16585,7 +17868,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization) and the [Miss Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Universe) brand, and host of [The Apprentice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_American_TV_series), and since being elected in 2016 has become significantly more well-known.\nOne proxy for how prominent Trump is in the public eye is Google Trends search interest. Search interest in Donald Trump started rising in June 2015 when Trump [announced his candidacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign), spiked in November 2016 due to [the election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and has been at about a quarter of that level during his presidency.\nWhat will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024, as a percentage of in November 2016?\nResolution is by the Google Trends interest over time figure for the topic [Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90) for September 2024, as displayed on the google trends site on October 1st 2024, as a percentage of the value in November 2016. If search interest is marked as <1 for that month, resolve at 0.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -16647,7 +17930,7 @@ } ], "description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \nWhen I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\nThe tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\nMy own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\". \nThus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\").\n", - "numforecasts": 144, + "numforecasts": 145, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -16699,7 +17982,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note: This question is the same as [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), but with a higher range.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://spacex.com), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California.\nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit (Falcon 1 in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft (Dragon in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station (Dragon in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun (Falcon Heavy's payload of a Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the Starship. This vehicle is intended to enable ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond, as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars.\nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as Starlink, which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is due to be fully operational by the late 2020s. Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015. As of July 2020, SpaceX was reportedly valued at [$44 billion](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/spacex-is-raising-up-to-1-billion-at-44-billion-valuation.html).\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization.\nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -16751,17 +18034,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n", - "numforecasts": 300, + "numforecasts": 343, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -16852,7 +18135,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/). \n[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees.\nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; [but the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631).\nThis question asks: When will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be sold, and implanted into the brains of human consumers?\nYou can find information on the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices [here](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices).\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on when regulatory approval will be obtained.\nThis question resolves >2050 if no approval is given before 2050. The question resolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\nChangelog:\n2020-08-17 : removed § triggering positive resolution upon Investigational Device Exemption or Humanitarian Device Exemption. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/#comment-37813).\n", - "numforecasts": 114, + "numforecasts": 116, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -16994,7 +18277,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Blades used by disabled athletes are improving, allowing them to run faster.\nThe current world record for the 100 meters is 9.572 seconds, ran by Usain Bolt in 2009. You can see how this record progressed over time on Wikipedia's article [Men's 100 metres world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression). Jeremy Richmond, a scientist, predicts the best possible time for a non-augmented human is 9.27 seconds (source: [Ultimate 100-Meter Time: 9.27 Seconds?](https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a20791832/ultimate-100-meter-time-9-27-seconds/)).\nThis question asks, when will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?\nIf no human without biological feet runs 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds before January 1st 2100, then this question resolves as >2100.\nLiam Malone thinks it's possible – although not while respecting the rules set by the Paralympics on which artificial legs athletes can wear (source: [Usain Bolt: Para-athlete Liam Malone vows to run faster than Olympic legend](https://www.bbc.com/sport/disability-sport/40677890)).\nConditions:\n--- \nGenetically modified humans don't count for the purpose of this question.\n--- \nThe artificial limbs can't have wheels or generate energy, nor have any device that produces energy, and must finish at the same height they started (ie. not convert potential gravitational energy into kinetic energy).\n--- \nThe run must start from an immobile position.\n--- \nThe athlete can't start running less than 0.1 seconds after the start signal (source: [5 Rules You Probably Didn’t Know About the 100m Sprint](https://tallypress.com/fun/5-rules-you-probably-didnt-know-about-the-100m-sprint/)).\n--- \nThe wind speed has to be at most 3 m/s in their favor.\n--- \nThe run must finish before January 1st, 2100, 00:00 UDT+0.\n--- \nThe run must be on a flat ground.\n--- \nGravitational acceleration and air resistance must be similar to those we currently normally found on Earth.\nThe source used for resolution will be Guinness World Records, or some other appropriately reputable source as determined by Metaculus admins in communication with the community.\n", - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -17005,17 +18288,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. \n[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.\nAnd [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. \nWill this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:\nBy start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? \nResolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:\n--- \nThis would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5).\n--- \nAlmost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".\n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasts": 83, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17026,17 +18309,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?\nThis question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/).\nIf the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology:\n---Let t be the date when the AGI is publicly known, as determined by the above Metaculus question. Let C be the company that developed the AGI. \n---Calculate the total return (including dividends) of C's stock over the period from 12 months prior to t to one month prior to t, inclusive.[1] \n---Over the same period, calculate the total return of the FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists. \n---Calculate the ratio of C's total return over this period to the total return of FTSE. If the ratio is 1.5 or greater, then this question resolves affirmatively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. \nIf the first AGI is not developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves ambiguously.\n[1] In the event that the market is closed on the start/end date, instead use the latest prior date on which the market is open. In the event that the date does not exist, use the latest prior date that exists. For example, if the AGI is developed on December 31, \"one month prior\" is considered to be November 30. If the market is closed on November 30, then use November 29 instead.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17108,7 +18391,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n---There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n---Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \n---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. \n", - "numforecasts": 213, + "numforecasts": 224, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -17119,17 +18402,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17181,7 +18464,7 @@ } ], "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", - "numforecasts": 552, + "numforecasts": 561, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17243,7 +18526,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n", - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -17264,7 +18547,7 @@ } ], "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 178, + "numforecasts": 179, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17337,7 +18620,7 @@ } ], "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", - "numforecasts": 500, + "numforecasts": 502, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17378,7 +18661,7 @@ } ], "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 44, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17462,7 +18745,7 @@ } ], "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 370, + "numforecasts": 375, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17482,7 +18765,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Amazon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)) is a technology company best known for its online shopping website. It is the [third largest company in the world](https://www.thebalance.com/market-capitalization-3305826) by market cap.\n[Amazon Prime Air](https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Prime-Air) is a program under development that plans to deliver packages to customers using drones, or uncrewed aerial vehicles (quadcopters and the like). The program has suffered substantial delays. When it was revealed in 2013, CEO Jeff Bezos predicted that drone delivery would be available by [2018](https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-predicted-amazon-would-be-making-drone-deliveries-by-2018-2018-12). Test deliveries were first made in 2016. In 2019, Amazon stated that drone delivery would be available [within months](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/amazon-promises-drone-delivery-months/story?id=63494811). However, as of September 2020, drone delivery is still apparently under development.\nWhen will Amazon deliver some products by drone?\nThis question resolves as the date when, according credible media reports or the Amazon website itself, a consumer in one of the 20 largest U.S. cities can order some product on [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) and have it delivered by an uncrewed aerial vehicle.\nThe drone must be uncrewed, but not necessarily autonomous (it could be remotely piloted). It must primarily move through the air; sidewalk drones such as Starship Technologies robots do not count.\nOnly one product needs to be eligible for drone delivery to qualify; for example, there could be a special promotion where only Amazon Echo devices are delivered by drone.\nIf the service is available in only certain parts of the city, at least 20% of the city's area must be covered, at least in principle (it is not necessary that Amazon be able to deliver to every single address in the coverage area). In cases where the city has an associated \"metro area\" (such as LA), we consider only the city proper.\nThere may be a fee to access drone delivery (similar to Amazon Fresh), a waiting list, or technical requirements (e.g. a landing zone), but the customer may not be required to have any special relationship with Amazon (e.g. employee/friends and family, signing an NDA, or being part of a restricted beta program).\nThere are no requirements for delivery speed.\nThe drone must be used for the final step of a delivery (the \"last mile\"), and need only be used for that step. For example, a delivery driver could drive a van to a neighborhood and deploy drones to deliver boxes to houses on the block. On the other hand, an autonomous airliner delivering packages to warehouses would not qualify.\nIf there is insufficient information on any of these criteria (e.g. it is unclear how much of a city's area is covered), the question remains open, and resolves when all of the criteria are clearly satisfied. The question could resolve ambiguous if there is conflicting information, e.g. if one report claims that 15% of the city's area is covered, and another claims 25%. \n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -17513,7 +18796,7 @@ } ], "description": "As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for [the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles](https://www.thedrive.com/news/36687/california-bans-the-sale-of-new-gas-and-diesel-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Gavin%20Newsom%20just%20signed%20a,out%20the%20internal%20combustion%20engine.) in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape?\nAutomakers can expect to incur R&D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, [Volkswagen is spending billions](https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet-on-electric-vehicles-in-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=By%202023%2C%20Volkswagen%20says%20it,profits%20from%202015%20through%202018.) in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and [Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/mercedes-maps-out-push-to-lift-profits-during-electric-car-shift).\nFor some additional context, here is the IEA [Historical EV Market Share and Outlook](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nThis question asks: Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?\nIf one of the top 10 current automakers (by vehicle sales), including Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler/Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Honda, SAIC, BMW, and Nissan, declares bankruptcy, the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf the automaker declares bankruptcy the question will resolve positively even if they are bought out by another company or given a loan by the government \n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17544,7 +18827,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nWith access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.\nBy contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.\nAs of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance. \nIn their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:\n[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.\nHow many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?\nThis question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task. \nIf human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions: \n--- \n[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\n--- \n[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "numforecasts": 106, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -17575,7 +18858,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -17658,7 +18941,7 @@ } ], "description": "The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.\nRecently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783).\nWill life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?\nThe question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard \"extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence\" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt.\nThe question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus is found or the evidence remains inconclusive.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) \n---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) \n---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) \n", - "numforecasts": 217, + "numforecasts": 218, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17730,7 +19013,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -17790,7 +19073,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nIn April 2017, Waymo launched an early rider program in Phoenix, Arizona, which signed up 400 users to try out a test edition of Waymo's transportation service. Over the next year, 400 riders used the Waymo service, providing feedback. In May 2018, Waymo announced that it plans to allow everyone in Phoenix to request a driverless ride before the end of the year. On December 5, 2018, the company launched a commercial self-driving car service called \"Waymo One\"; users in the Phoenix metropolitan area use an app to request a pick-up.\nBy November 2019, the service was operating autonomous vehicles without a safety backup driver, the first autonomous service worldwide operating without safety drivers in the car.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 for opened questions in the last 12 months report riding a Waymo self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Waymo taxi we mean any Waymo car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n", - "numforecasts": 81, + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -17811,7 +19094,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Petrov Day](http://petrovday.com/) is the yearly anniversary of the [1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident) on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union.\nOne proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to [create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJxwFMSL5TPN2usC6/modes-of-petrov-day), with a big red button with much lower stakes:\nAnd you can also play on hard mode: \"During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak.\"\nLesswrong has hosted an event along these lines [in 2019](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvzfFcbmKgEsDBRHh/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2019) and [in 2020](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020). In 2019, 125 users were given \"launch codes\" that, if input into a red button on the front page, would take down the site for the day. In 2020, the same was done with 270 users. The site [was not took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krgNxiooRfnP9L4ZD/follow-up-to-petrov-day-2019) in 2019, and [was took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020?commentId=CviMXu8BciCqcSMKJ#Relating_to_the_End_of_Humanity) in 2020.\nIf Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?\nIf the site [lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/) hosts a 2021 Petrov day event, and a group of Lesswrong users are given the choice to take a unilateral action that ends the 2021 Petrov day event (such as entering launch codes that take down the Lesswrong site, as in 2019 and 2020), then this will resolve positively if one of them takes that action and negatively if none of them do. Otherwise, this resolves ambigiously.\n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17832,7 +19115,7 @@ } ], "description": "Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.\nWill Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?\nFor this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17853,7 +19136,7 @@ } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.\nThe BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 167, + "numforecasts": 168, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17864,17 +19147,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 134, + "numforecasts": 136, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17989,7 +19272,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.\nDuring the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).\nThis question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?\nHow many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?\nThe question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as reported by reputable news outlets or governmental organizations, (Associated Press, Reuters, the US DOD, the UN, ect.).\nWars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. \nTerrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\nArmed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.\n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18041,7 +19324,7 @@ } ], "description": "Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1):\nCybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud.\nThe SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore [the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government.\n[In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), the DOJ also details that the charges are confined to McAfee the individual and that they did not find any connection with the “anti-virus company bearing his name.”\n[The DOJ’s charges](https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1324536/download) against McAfee are a bit dry, but detail 10 counts against the entrepreneur. McAfee faced five counts of tax evasion, which each carry a maximum penalty of five years in prison, as well as five counts of “willful failure to file a tax return,” each carrying a maximum penalty of one year in prison.\n[The SEC filing is a much more interesting read](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/18506139/1/securities-and-exchange-commission-v-mcafee/), with 55 pages detailing a lengthy investigation into McAfee’s alleged fraudulent activity promoting a number of ICOs throughout 2017 and 2018. The report specifically notes that McAfee allegedly received more than $11.6 million worth of BTC and ETH tokens for promoting seven ICOs. Unfortunately, those offerings were not named in the suit. He additionally received $11.5 million worth of the promoted tokens, the suit alleges.\nWill John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?\n---If John McAfee pleads guilty or is found guilty and receives a prison sentence of at least 3 years, this question resolves positively. If he receives a lighter or no prison sentence, it resolves negatively. \n---If McAfee avoids extraction to USA and in this way avoids facing charges, the question resolves negatively at the closing date. \n---Positive resolution does not require McAfee to actually finish his three year sentence. \n---Serving a combined total exceeding 3 years in pre-trail detention and post-trail detention is sufficient for positive resolution. \n---If this question does not resolve positively before 2025-01-01, this question resolves negatively. \n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18051,7 +19334,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/). Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe). Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens.\nThe Government of India requires a permit to visit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has outlawed all outsider visits to the North Sentinel Island, have designated a 3 mile exclusion zone around the island, and maintain an armed patrol of this exclusion zone in an attempt to prevent outside contact. Knowledge of Sentinelese culture is [extremely limited](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646218). They are designated a '[Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061)', and estimates of the island's population vary widely. The [2001 census recorded 39 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20141211011020/http://censusindia.gov.in/Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/06-Enumeration_of_Primitive_Tribes_in_A%26N_Islands.pdf#page=3) (21 men, 18 women), the [2011 census recorded only 15 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20150801173328/http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/3500_PART_B_DCHB_ANDAMAN%20%26%20NICOBAR%20ISLANDS.pdf) (12 men, 3 women), but both were conducted from a distance. A [2016 estimate](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061) suggested between 100 and 150.\nWhen will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?\nThis question resolves when any one of the following events occurs:\n1--A public video recording is made available that depicts a Sentinelese person legally interacting with a non-Sentinelese person (i.e. the non-Sentinelese person is not charged with an offense relating to the interaction); \n2--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has left North Sentinel Island; \n3--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has legally entered a UN member state; \n4--Two or more news sources report that there are no longer any people living on North Sentinel Island; or \n5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists. \nThe question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video).\n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18083,17 +19366,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18114,7 +19397,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nWill the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18125,17 +19408,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.\nWill the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18208,7 +19491,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n", - "numforecasts": 71, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18249,7 +19532,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 231, + "numforecasts": 236, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18269,7 +19552,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors.\nIt also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction.\nThe Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide nonjusticiable political questions. Each year it agrees to hear about 100–150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review.\nBecause justices can serve for life, potentially spending decades on the Court, vacancies are relatively rare and are considered major political events in the United States.\nAccording to [federal statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judiciary_Act_of_1869), the Court consists of the Chief Justice of the United States and eight Associate Justices. Once appointed, justices have lifetime tenure unless they resign, retire, or are removed from office.\nThe most recent vacancy arose in 2020, when on September 18, 2020, [Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg) died. [Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) to fill the vacancy that arose.\nWhen will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\nThis question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.\nIf the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 159, + "numforecasts": 161, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18300,7 +19583,7 @@ } ], "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18321,17 +19604,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 52, + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18352,7 +19635,7 @@ } ], "description": "NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030.\nSpaceX has been working on its own \"Mars\" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026.\nWill NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?\nThe resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events:\n1) A mission substantially (>30%) or wholly funded by NASA successfully returns a sample from the surface of Mars to Earth.\n2) A rocket build by SpaceX designated as \"Starship\" or clearly designated as a successor to Starship successfully lands on Mars.\nThe question will resolve positive if event 1) happens before event 2).\nThe question will resolve negatively if event 2) happens before event 1).\nIf neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNote that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it. Because the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative.\nSimilarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth.\nIt is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18362,7 +19645,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities.\n[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time.\nHow many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18392,7 +19675,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the \"New world\" had a fraction of the [population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history#/media/File:WorldPopulation.png) and [GDP](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_distribution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_Middle_East.png) of Europe. At the time it may have seemed implausible to guess that the gap would ever be overcome. However after a series of World Wars, the relative fortune of Europe declined while America --rich in resources and isolated by two oceans-- continued to grow. Ultimately, the GDP of the USA alone would be greater than that of Western Europe after WWII.\nIt may seem similarly improbable that Mars --a planet so inhospitable it is inhabited only by robots-- would ever surpass Earth. But, history is long. If a self-sustaining colony is ever founded on Mars, it would have some chance of exceeding Earth's GDP based solely on the possibility of calamity on Earth.\nWhen will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?\nThis question will resolve – on the basis of credible reporting – to December 31st of the first year in which the real GDP of Mars exceeds that of Earth.\nIf it does not resolve positive before the ending date of 3000AD, it will resolve to the upper-bound.\nIf the GDP falls into disuse, and Metaculus Admins find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.\nBecause of the dates involved in this question, it is unlikely any current Metaculus users will remain to collect points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18413,7 +19696,7 @@ } ], "description": "[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb).\nHowever, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761).\nThere is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/).\nWill detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but only if the authors of the independent observation will claim that their study indeed generally reproduces the original findings. The study must be published at least as pre-print by 2023.\nThe question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or the authors of the original study agree that there is no significant abundance of phosphine in the Venus atmosphere.\nRelated question:\n[Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/)\n", - "numforecasts": 134, + "numforecasts": 135, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18423,7 +19706,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf).\nWhen will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. \nPositive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account.\nPositive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities.\nPositive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases.\nIn case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as \">2090-10-25\". \n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18433,7 +19716,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 111, + "numforecasts": 112, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18453,7 +19736,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 globally, and 2030 for Europe, America and Canada. \nThe option for an electric vehicle is currently available in 15 US and Canadian cities, and the company expects to open this option in another 65 cities globally by the end of 2020.\nUber is also working to arrange the transfer of vehicles for its driver by offering discounts through select companies (Renault and Nissan in Europe and GM in Canada and US) and promising [$800M in support](https://nypost.com/2020/09/08/uber-vows-to-have-all-electric-cars-by-2040-help-drivers-make-switch/) through 2025 for drivers to make the switch.\nAs Hawkins from [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) writes:\n“Research suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination.” As one of the largest transportation companies and contributors to carbon emissions, taking these steps will help lower pollution and decrease the rate of global warming.\nWhen will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Uber’s own data and announcements will suffice.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18474,7 +19757,7 @@ } ], "description": "In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. \nGovernor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as:\n“including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).”\nThe [California Governor’s office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) writes as of September 23, 2020 that:\n“The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of all of California’s carbon pollution, 80 percent of smog-forming pollution and 95 percent of toxic diesel emissions – all while communities in the Los Angeles Basin and Central Valley see some of the dirtiest and most toxic air in the country.”\n[13 other American states](https://rhg.com/research/states-zero-emission-vehicles/#:~:text=Thirteen%20states%E2%80%94New%20York%2C%20Massachusetts,of%20the%20Clean%20Air%20Act) have agreed to follow California’s plans for reducing emissions by adopting their GHG standards and ZEV program under Act 177. It is possible that they might also join California in banning the sales of ICE powered cars in an effort to fight climate change. \nHowever, there are [many complaints](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/newsom-climate-plan.html) about this future transition and the threat it could bring to workers in auto manufacturing sectors, as well as other supply chain members such as companies providing fossil fuels. There are also concerns about the supporting charging infrastructure needed to accommodate such a shift, and if it would be practically feasible. \nThis is a key issue in the widespread battle between economic security and stability and climate consciousness, and could lead the way in proving or negating the validity of the argument between the two.\nWill California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?\nResolution criteria for this question will be found through reliable media sources in California or nationally, or through the Office of the Governor in California. The [official document](https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf) posted by the Governor’s Office outlines only the sales of new ZEV light duty passenger vehicles by 2035, and does not include the sale of used, non-ZEV passenger cars and trucks after 2035. If only certain counties are 100% in ZEV sales, then this question will resolve negatively as the executive order clearly states the goal of 100% ZEV sales as a state-wide plan. \nIf the definition of ZEV changes before 2035, or the executive order no longer is in place by 2035, then this question will resolve negatively. If all new sales by dealerships for light duty vehicles throughout the state are ZEV as defined by the ZEV program from 2012, then this question will resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18495,7 +19778,7 @@ } ], "description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.\nWill a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?\nThe question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.\nAn impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. \n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18537,7 +19820,7 @@ } ], "description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18547,7 +19830,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”\nIn 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.\nWhat percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.\nCountries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table\nInclusion Criteria:\nCountries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.\nSuccess Criteria:\nCountries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:\n---The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment. \n---At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality. \nEither of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.\nCarbon Neutrality Definition:\nThis question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.\nIf a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.\nIf a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. \n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18579,17 +19862,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", - "numforecasts": 940, + "numforecasts": 985, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18599,7 +19882,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nCurrently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022.\nIn case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18629,7 +19912,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Transportation contributes heavily to greenhouse gas emissions from carbon dioxide. In 2017, road transportation contributed approximately [21%](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles_en) of the EU’s carbon emissions. \nPublic transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon and the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.\nChina has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States. \nHowever, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. \nChanging the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.).\nHow many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?\nResolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2022. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nData: Numbers from 2015-2019: 2015: 0.11k, 2016: 0.83k, 2017: 0.64k, 2018: 0.91k, and 2019:1.99k\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18639,7 +19922,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations. \nThese stations are essential infrastructure required for the widespread use of electric vehicles, and remain a critical factor in EV adoption. In a 2020 survey by Castrol, they found that [64% of consumers](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mainstream-ev-adoption-5-speedbumps-to-overcome/) on average (from countries in the Asian, European, and North American regions) would buy an electric vehicle if charging infrastructure existed to support their driving habits. \nThere are currently [89,970 outlets](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) on public charging stations of every level across the United States, with California representing almost one third of that. Several other states such as Texas, Florida, Oregon, and New York are followers of California’s trend, however, the number of public outlets in the second-greatest state is only [5,151](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) in New York, less than one fifth of the number in California.\nFor people driving longer distances or living in rural areas, both EV range and charging infrastructure is essential for drawing a greater proportion of drivers to buy electric vehicles. The states with the largest number of [new EV registrations](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) in 2018 after California (256,800) were in Texas (22,600), Washington (28,400), Florida (25,200) and New York (16,600). These numbers loosely follow the number of [EV laws and incentives by state](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) as well. \nIf there is a greater push by both private corporations and public state and local governments to provide more public charging stations, then hopefully new registrations will increase as well.\nWhen will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through the U.S Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/). The number of charging outlets and stations across America can be found through a [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) that is consistently updated. Numbers for this question were drawn on the date: 10/31/20. The number of charging outlets per state can be found through this [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) that is consistently updated. Other information surrounding adoption can be found through the AFDC in maps like [this](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) for new EV registration, which is on a two year updating time lag, and [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) to look at the number of current government sponsored laws and incentives for EVs by state.\nIf these criteria are no longer available or current by the time this question resolves, then it will resolve ambiguously. To resolve positively, the number of public outlets of all levels in another state must reach the 50% level for the then current number of public outlets maintained in California at that time.\n", - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18680,7 +19963,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin) are an order of mammals found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. There are eight currently extant species of pangolin. One the [IUCN red list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUCN_Red_List), three of these ([Phillipine pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_pangolin), [Chinese pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_pangolin) and [Sunda pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_pangolin)) are listed as critically endangered, three ([Tree pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_pangolin), [Indian pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_pangolin) and [Giant pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_pangolin)) are listed as endangered and two ([Long-tailed pangolins](Long-tailed pangolin) and [Ground pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_pangolin)) are listed as vulnerable. The endangerment of pangolins is caused by a combination of [poaching](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin_trade) and deforestation.\nHow many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?\nThis will resolve at the number of currently known species of pangolin that are not classified as \"extinct\" or \"critically endangered (possibly extinct)\" by the latest version of the [IUCN Red List](https://www.iucnredlist.org/) as of the end of 2050. If new species are discovered, they will not count towards the total number.\n", - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18711,7 +19994,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n", - "numforecasts": 104, + "numforecasts": 105, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18721,7 +20004,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/library/case-for-neuropreservation/),\nNeuropreservation, quite simply, is low temperature preservation of the brain of a terminal patient. All efforts in neuropreservation are devoted to the singular purpose of preserving the brain, and only the brain, in the best possible condition allowed by present technology. The disposition of other tissue only matters inasmuch it impacts upon the condition of the brain.\nAs of writing this question, Alcor [charges a minimum](https://www.alcor.org/docs/alcor-form-schedule-a-required-costs-and-cryopreservation-fund-minimums.pdf) of $80,000 for neuropreservation, often paid with life insurance. For people purchasing life insurance for cryonics, it's important to ensure that the funding is above the minimum amount required for preservation. However, the price has changed in the past. Therefore, it's critical that cryonics enthusiasts anticipate future price changes, so that they can afford the procedure when they need it.\nMati Roy has written [a timeline of brain preservation](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) and has recorded both the [real](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics,_inflation_adjusted.png) and [nominal price of brain preservation over time](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics.png).\nWhat will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the minimum nominal price of brain preservation provided by Alcor at the beginning of 2030 in US dollars, if Alcor still exists. Otherwise, this question resolves ambiguously. Resolution is determined by a source provided by Alcor.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18732,17 +20015,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 143, + "numforecasts": 147, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18763,17 +20046,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n", - "numforecasts": 292, + "numforecasts": 296, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18834,7 +20117,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nWater has been called [the oil of space](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4), and for good reason. [Nature reports](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4) that: \nPrivate firms are increasingly tempted by the possibility of mining oxygen and hydrogen — which power rockets — from lunar ice. If that does pan out, then the Moon could become a refueling station, radically reducing the expense of space travel.\nAs an example, a lunar return mission that refueled at the Moon would cost just one-fiftieth of the price of one that brings all its fuel with it from Earth.\nThough it appears that there may be far more lunar ice than previously anticipated, extracting and utilizing ice that took many years to accumulate is not, in the (potentially very) long-term, a sustainable approach for space mission or lunar settlement resupply. Fortunately, it may not be the only option.\nA recent [Nature paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1198-9#Sec4) studying cold traps on the moon between 1 km - 1 cm in scale found that not only are cold traps roughly ~1 cm across the most numerous type, their presence has important implications: \nGiven the high loss rates due to micrometeorite impact gardening and ultraviolet photodestruction, the detection of water within the micro cold traps would imply recent accumulation. Therefore, the presence or absence of water in micro cold traps could serve as an indicator of volatile sources in the inner Solar System.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nTherefore, this question asks: When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a system must be created that can capture and make available for human use water from volatile sources in the Inner Solar System. Such a system may be a proof of concept, and not necessarily optimized, efficient, or cost-effective.\n", - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18844,7 +20127,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 per hour.\nIn terms of the USD's purchasing power, the minimum wage has been significantly higher in the past. In 1968, the minimum wage was $1.60 per hour, which in 2020 dollars would be aproximately $12.00.\nJoe Biden (presumed president-elect) has [pledged to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/).\nWhen will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?\nThe resolution will occur on the date that the increase takes effect. Any increase over $7.25 USD (not inflation-adjusted) will be a valid resolution.\nIf the minimum wage is reduced or abolished, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question will be retroactively closed 3 days before a vote in the senate which passes legislation raising the minimum wage. A vote which does not pass will not close the question. The question will then be resolved on the date the legislation takes effect. \n", - "numforecasts": 106, + "numforecasts": 109, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18854,7 +20137,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the launch of our [first satellite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1) into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed thousands of satellites around Earth and other celestial objects, and low Earth orbit has been inhabited continuously for just over [20 years](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/science/international-space-station-20-years) now.\nElon Musk wants to colonize Mars and Jeff Bezos has talked about [moving industry to space](https://www.fastcompany.com/90347364/jeff-bezos-wants-to-save-earth-by-moving-industry-to-space), but as of yet, there is still essentially no economic activity that happens (almost) exclusively in outer space. How soon is this going to change?\nWhen will 1% of humanity's Gross World Product (GWP) be produced off-Earth?\nThis question will resolve positively when there is a credible report of the total GWP of all economic activity away from Earth equaling at least 1/99th of the total GWP produced on Earth, as judged by Metaculus administrators.\nEconomic activity will be counted as being \"off-Earth\" so long as it is exclusively performed at least 100 km above the Earth's surface. A rocket launching a probe from the Earth's surface would be part of Earth's GWP, while that same probe performing asteroid mining would count as off-Earth GWP.\nAs it's fairly likely the exact date when the 1% milestone is achieved might not be knowable with certainty due to ambiguities, this question will retroactively resolve to January 1st of the year when it was deemed to have occurred.\nIf this question does not resolve positive before the ending date of 2300 AD, it will resolve to the upper bound.\nIf the GWP falls into disuse and Metaculus administrators find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.\nFor the purposes of this question...\n--- \nThe term \"Gross World Product\" will refer to humanity's total economic activity across all inhabited space, including any worlds or artificial habitats beyond Earth.\n--- \nThe word \"humanity\" will also include genetically modified or cybernetic Earth-originating organisms, emulated humans (ems), and artificial intelligences (AIs). \n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18884,7 +20167,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18894,7 +20177,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Both Microsoft and Google are working on building Quantum Computers. Google achieved [Quantum Supremecy](https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/09/20/132923/google-researchers-have-reportedly-achieved-quantum-supremacy/) in 2019. Microsoft already has a website that previews [Azure Quantum](https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/services/quantum/). Given that both companies have cloud offerings and the first Quantum Computers are going to be really expensive it makes sense to rent out compute on those computers to willing custumers of their cloud offerings.\nWhen will it be possible to buy Quantum Computing via the Cloud?\nThis question will resolve as the day on which quantum computing services can be brought via the cloud (as normal compute in cloud computing can be brought in 2020). On the date of resolution, prices for quantum compute must be openly advertised and any user must be able to sign up without first having to be on a waiting list. If these conditions are not met by the end of 2050, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18905,17 +20188,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18925,7 +20208,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18935,7 +20218,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18945,7 +20228,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18955,7 +20238,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon, and reduce the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.\nChina has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States.\nHowever, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. This should see a large number of new registrations in Europe over the next several years. \nNorth America lags behind Europe with only [one quarter the number of registrations](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) in 2019 (560 total), and fewer registrations than the year before in 2018 (620 total). South America and India continue to consistently fall behind the United States in numbers as well. \nChanging the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers to choose outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.). \nOther Related Questions:\n[Electric Bus Registrations in Europe 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/)\nHow many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2025. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). This report should become available sometimes in 2026.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -18976,7 +20259,7 @@ } ], "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18997,7 +20280,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\non Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\nWill Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?\nThis resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.\n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19007,7 +20290,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Graphcore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphcore) is a semiconductor company that develops accelerators for AI and machine learning.\nIn a [2019 interview by Wired](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/graphcore-ai-intelligence-processing-unit), Nigel Toon was asked whether Graphcore's goal ultimately is to IPO. His response:\nThat’s the path we’re shooting for, absolutely.\nWhen will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?\nThis question resolves positively as the date when Graphcore first becomes a publicly traded company. This may occur through any of the following channels:\n---Graphcore holds an IPO or a completes a direct listing \n---Graphcore is acquired by a publicly traded company \n---Graphcore completes a [reverse IPO](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversetakeover.asp) by acquiring a publicly traded company \n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore is aqcuired by a private company. \n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore ceases operations before going public.\n--- \nThis question resolves as \">2035-11-10\" if it fails to resolve positively before 2035-11-10. \n", - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19059,17 +20342,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\nStephen W Snow countered,\nMy reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\nWill the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19090,7 +20373,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 271, + "numforecasts": 273, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19111,7 +20394,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 192, + "numforecasts": 202, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19121,7 +20404,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 313, + "numforecasts": 316, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19142,7 +20425,7 @@ } ], "description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.\nWill Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?\nWill FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?\nThe question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. \n", - "numforecasts": 401, + "numforecasts": 411, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19152,7 +20435,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n", - "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasts": 158, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19162,7 +20445,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, and resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Due to community spread of the virus throughout the United States and other countries, there has been interest in developing a vaccine to hopefully stop the spread of the virus.\nIn November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more than 90% effective according to early trial data. Both vaccines require two doses per person. Government officials expect there to be 40 million doses from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine available in 2020 if both vaccines are approved, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. [(Washington Post)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/) By the end of 2021, Pfizer estimates it will be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, and Moderna estimates it will be able to produce 1 billion doses. [(The Guardian)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show)\nBased on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4.\nWhen will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19173,17 +20456,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", - "numforecasts": 454, + "numforecasts": 473, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19193,7 +20476,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n", - "numforecasts": 99, + "numforecasts": 101, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19203,7 +20486,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasts": 159, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19213,7 +20496,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19255,17 +20538,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management). (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)\nWill any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?\nIf any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading))\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\nThey need to be an executive for a listed company in a major index\n---S&P500 \n---FTSE100 \n---DAX30 \n---CAC40 \n---FTSE MIB \n---Nikkei 225 \nTheir imprisonment must start before 2026\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19285,7 +20568,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 639, + "numforecasts": 653, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19305,7 +20588,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19315,7 +20598,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "According to [STAT](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/), early results from an AstraZeneca trial showed 70% efficacy. But that average hid a discrepancy:\nTwo full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741.\nThis half dose-full dose regimen was [administered by accident](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-dosing/dosing-error-turns-into-lucky-punch-for-astrazeneca-and-oxford-idUSKBN28327Q), in a non-random fashion, therefore violating the randomization assumption of an RCT.\nBecause of this failure in study design, the [CEO of AstraZeneca told Bloomberg News](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-26/astra-likely-to-run-fresh-global-covid-vaccine-trial-ceo-says) that the company wants to run \"an additional global trial\" to \"confirm the 90% efficacy rate that the shot showed in a portion of an existing trial\".\n[According to the WHO](https://www.who.int/influenza_vaccines_plan/resources/Session4_VEfficacy_VEffectiveness.PDF), vaccine efficacy is defined as:\n% reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions (eg RCT)\nHow effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZeneca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?\nThis question resolves after a reliable media report of the final study results of a 2nd RCT of the AstraZeneca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. It resolves based on the effectiveness reported for the most effective treatment arm.\nThis question closes retroactively 24hrs prior to the first interim results being reported. If no interim results are reported, this question closes 24hrs prior to when the final results are reported.\nIf no RCT is conducted or the final results of an RCT are not reported by the resolve date of this question, it resolves ambiguous.\nIf multiple RCTs are conducted, this question resolves based on the one for which the first reliable media report of the final study results. \n", - "numforecasts": 167, + "numforecasts": 169, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19325,7 +20608,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires)\nWith an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world.\nTo continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png)\nHow large will Monaco be in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the land area (in hectares) of Monaco as of 1 January 2035, according to the most recent estimate published as of that date.\nIf Monaco ceases to exist as a sovereign state before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19335,7 +20618,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet),\nDespite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence that anyone has cloned human embryos. [...]\nFrom a technical perspective, cloning humans and other primates is more difficult than in other mammals. One reason is that two proteins essential to cell division, known as spindle proteins, are located very close to the chromosomes in primate eggs. Consequently, removal of the egg's nucleus to make room for the donor nucleus also removes the spindle proteins, interfering with cell division. In other mammals, such as cats, rabbits and mice, the two spindle proteins are spread throughout the egg. So, removal of the egg's nucleus does not result in loss of spindle proteins. In addition, some dyes and the ultraviolet light used to remove the egg's nucleus can damage the primate cell and prevent it from growing.\nA prominent historical figure is defined as someone who is,\n--- \nCurrently considered dead according to credible media\n--- \nHas an English Wikipedia entry that has existed for at least 15 years before the birth of the human clone\nWhen will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?\nThis question will resolve on the date of birth of any clone of a prominent historical figure, as determined by credible media.\n", - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 19, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19345,7 +20628,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n", - "numforecasts": 405, + "numforecasts": 409, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19356,17 +20639,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19397,7 +20680,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052)\nData of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html).\nWhen will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?\nResolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp.\nThe question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase.\nResolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19418,7 +20701,7 @@ } ], "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 604, + "numforecasts": 610, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19449,17 +20732,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.\nWill China land the next person on the Moon?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.\nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19469,7 +20752,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19489,7 +20772,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nThis question mirrors [a question I wrote for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/). I created this question because it has a longer timeline, and therefore can potentially be informed by [the recent Deepmind protein folding breakthrough](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphafold-a-solution-to-a-50-year-old-grand-challenge-in-biology). It's also a good test for [Eroom's law](https://www.theifod.com/erooms-law-explaining-the-decline-in-drug-discovery/), the observation that drugs have gotten exponentially more difficult to develop over time.\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2035, as reported by the FDA or credible media. In case the FDA is abolished before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19500,17 +20783,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), \"about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden\". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists.\nSome other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.\nWill the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?\nThis question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of:\n--- \nthe 2020 election was \"rigged\"\n--- \nthe 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified \"unfair\")\n--- \nDonald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president\n--- \nJoe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president \n--- \nDonald Trump won in 2020\n--- \nJoe Biden lost in 2020\nThis question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.\nNovember is defined according to UTC \n", - "numforecasts": 170, + "numforecasts": 172, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19520,7 +20803,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n", - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19550,7 +20833,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics.\n[The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) but has been static since the 1980s. [This is consistent with most women's athletics records](https://sportsscientists.com/2016/08/world-records-fossils/) and is likely related to the systemtic doping from that era.\nIt remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.\nWhat will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?\nThe official winning time of the Women's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous\nRelated questions:\n[Men's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/)\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19571,7 +20854,7 @@ } ], "description": "Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/).\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\nU.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the \"low hanging fruit has been picked.\" Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the \"s-curve\" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor)\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\nWe have not seen 3% productivity growth in USA for many years. Predicting such growth is highly speculative at this point since there are way too many uncertainties. Moreover assuming such growth entails large investment amounts not just in R&D but also downstream. I fear US economy will see itself constrained by China worldwide expansion. Protectionist tendencies and the emergence of formidable Chinese competitors will constrain the development of US companies making it more difficult to achieve high productivity enhancements. In other words, the world economic context will change to such a degree that we will have to revise all our economic and business hypothesis derived from past experiences and extrapolated from futuristic assumptions embedded in history.\nWill the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Alberto Forchielli is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19592,7 +20875,7 @@ } ], "description": "Robert D Atkinson and Jason W Galbraith summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/687/).\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\nIncreasingly a large number of pundits and scholars, including Eric Brynjolfsson, Martin Ford, Andrew McAfee, and Vivek Wadhwa, have argued that technology is rapidly advancing and will soon lead large scale displacement of workers with technology. These views have rapidly become the prevailing wisdom regarding emerging technology with the result being that voters and policy makers are now more likely to resist technological change and automation, rather than embrace it. But the \"robots are killing our jobs\" proponents miss the fact that automation lowers prices (or raises wages) which in turn spurs increased demand for goods and services, and hence labor. As such there is no reason to believe that either unemployment or the share of adults in the workforce will decline in any significantly way going forward.\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\nThe United States will certainly experience a recession in the next six years. As a result, the workforce participation rate will fall below 60 percent and this time, automation and de-industrialization will keep it there at least through June 2025.\nWill the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent??\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Jason W Galbraith is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19602,7 +20885,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble)\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2030?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2030?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2030 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 44, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19623,7 +20906,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 89, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19633,7 +20916,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),\nGross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP\nIn the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&D. What will that number be in 2030?\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?\nThis question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19654,7 +20937,7 @@ } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election),\nBefore, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was \"the most secure in American history.\" Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was \"no evidence of widespread fraud\" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition.\nWill the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?\nFor the purpose of this question, the \"losing party\" is defined as the party whose presidential candidate is projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves positively if ANY of the following come true following the 2024 presidential election,\n--- \nThe losing candidate states that they consider the election result \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say a close synonym of \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", and therefore a dispute over whether the word choice counts for positive resolution, then the following method of resolution will be used: if [thesaurus.com](http://thesaurus.com) lists \"fraud\", \"fraudulent\", or \"rigged\" as a synonym of the word, and at least one moderator agrees that it is a close synonym, then it counts for positive resolution.\n--- \nThe losing candidate refuses to concede two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours.\n--- \nFewer than 20% of congressional members of the losing party believe that their candidate lost the election as determined by credible media two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting the opposite-party candidate to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. By comparison, on December 7th 2020, [just 27 congressional Republicans acknowledge Biden’s win](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-who-won-election-republicans-congress/2020/12/04/1a1011f6-3650-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) according to the Washington Post.\n--- \nA survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey participants who are members of the losing party state that the election was \"probably\" or \"definitely\" free and fair in the most recent such survey following projections from both the AP and Fox News. The relevant survey for 2020 can be found [here](https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/).\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nFor the purpose of this question, a network is said to have \"projected\" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of \"projected\" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection. \n", - "numforecasts": 212, + "numforecasts": 213, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19696,7 +20979,7 @@ } ], "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19707,17 +20990,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 114, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19738,7 +21021,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.\nAs of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. \nThroughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)) parties. \nThe Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) in [the 2016 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election) Additionally, the Democratic Party has had two female nominees for vice president: [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) in [the 1984 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election) and [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) in [the 2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) As of December 2020, Harris is the vice president-elect, and is expected to be sworn in as vice president in January 2021. \nThe Republican Party has never had a female nominee for president, but has had one female nominee for vice president: [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) in [the 2008 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election).\nWill the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?\nFor a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts.\nIf there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19778,7 +21061,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n", - "numforecasts": 145, + "numforecasts": 149, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19788,7 +21071,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 459, + "numforecasts": 461, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19798,7 +21081,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", - "numforecasts": 192, + "numforecasts": 195, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19808,7 +21091,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n", - "numforecasts": 215, + "numforecasts": 217, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19818,7 +21101,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n", - "numforecasts": 204, + "numforecasts": 207, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19839,7 +21122,7 @@ } ], "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 186, + "numforecasts": 187, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19860,7 +21143,7 @@ } ], "description": "President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a [Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans](https://joebiden.com/healthcare/). It [seems likely](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option.\nWill the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. \nA public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 133, + "numforecasts": 134, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19881,7 +21164,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.\nIf the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 218, + "numforecasts": 225, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19912,7 +21195,7 @@ } ], "description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n", - "numforecasts": 111, + "numforecasts": 113, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19933,7 +21216,7 @@ } ], "description": "One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon.\nWill India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. \nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. \n“The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of India for this to resolve positively. An Indian citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19964,7 +21247,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.\nWhat will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics.\n", - "numforecasts": 170, + "numforecasts": 171, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -19975,17 +21258,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 219, + "numforecasts": 233, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20005,7 +21288,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n", - "numforecasts": 93, + "numforecasts": 95, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20026,7 +21309,7 @@ } ], "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n", - "numforecasts": 275, + "numforecasts": 277, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20076,7 +21359,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 108, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20137,7 +21420,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Artificial Intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is causing job losses in many sectors. While the most obvious jobs being lost are related to easily automatizable tasks in factories [[1](http://(https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/understanding-job-loss-predictions-from-artificial-intelligence/))], [many expect](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/08/self-driving-cars-will-destroy-a-lot-of-jobs-theyll-also-create-a-lot/) large numbers of jobs to be lost in the transportation sector in the coming years due to self-driving cars. However, not all job losses are related to lower class workers, [but also to higher class such as lawyers](https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/02/09/will-a-i-put-lawyers-out-of-business/). These trends affect all industrialized nations. The German unemployment rate has, however, been [decreasing steadily for a number of years](http://(https://www.statista.com/statistics/227005/unemployment-rate-in-germany/)).\nWhat will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?\n---Numbers will be taken from [the Arbeitsagentur (the Federal Employment Agency)](https://www.arbeitsagentur.de/en/welcome). For instance, [the 2017 numbers are available in the 2020 report](https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/DE/Statischer-Content/Statistiken/Themen-im-Fokus/Berufe/Generische-Publikationen/Broschuere-Akademiker.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4), page 90. A total of 356000 people with a law degree in the workforce, and 4600 unemployed, thus giving a rate of 1.3%. \n", - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20147,7 +21430,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May. However, with the winter season entering full gear, holiday retail sales are expected to increase [3.6 to 5.2%](https://nrf.com/research/monthly-economic-review-december-2020) over 2019 with total sales estimated between $755B and 766B, which should hopefully increase the ability for retailers to begin paying full rent once more. \nAs of mid-May 2020, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report. By the second quarter, it fell only 2% to [15%](https://www.statista.com/statistics/194054/us-office-vacancy-rate-forecasts-from-2010/#:~:text=Office%20vacancy%20rates%20in%20the%20U.S.%202019%2D2020&text=In%20the%20United%20States%2C%20vacancy,the%20impact%20of%20the%20coronavirus.).\nIn May, the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:\nCommercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively. \nAccording to a [National Association of Realtors survey from May 2020](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%. \n[Recent data](https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2020-real-estate-forecast-summit-2020-consensus-forecast-12-10-2020.pdf) from November through December, released from the National Association of Realtors Survey, indicates that office vacancy rates will fall 3% heading into 2021, while retail vacancy rates will continue to increase to 11%. Industrial and multi-family vacancy rates are predicted to stay level at 5% and 6% respectively, while hotels experience a 2% drop.\nWhat will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).\n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20178,17 +21461,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, the US unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April, but has since decreased to 6.7% by November. \nHeading into winter, where outdoor social distancing becomes more difficult, and the holiday season draws people towards socializing with family and friends, COVID-19 deaths peaked over [300,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) with over [2,500](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths) new deaths a day by December 16th. Rising cases and failure to social distance can [push cities back into lockdown](https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/), causing economic duress and a potential return to higher unemployment rates like we saw in Q2 of 2020. \nHowever, as the new vaccine makes its way across America and herd immunity becomes an attainable goal, more people should be able to return to work. As the economy opens and consumption increases, putting money back into the hands of corporations, [employment should increase](https://news.umich.edu/u-m-economists-see-us-growth-slowing-until-coronavirus-vaccine-becomes-broadly-available/).\nFor the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly unemployment occur within Q1?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20209,17 +21492,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18999999999999995, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. \nThe effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. \n[Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click):\nFor both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day.\nWill scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?\nQuestion resolves \"Yes\" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific literature supports the claim that delaying the second dose (booster) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines beyond their initial schedule probably saves or would have saved lives? \nThe relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster. \nQuestion will resolve \"No\" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality.\nQuestion receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for \"Yes\" or \"No\" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall.\n", - "numforecasts": 147, + "numforecasts": 153, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20229,7 +21512,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20249,7 +21532,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge.\nTwo questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/)\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous.\nFor athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. \n", - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20281,17 +21564,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 230, + "numforecasts": 241, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20301,7 +21584,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are \"probable healthcare-associated infections\".\nIn the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?\n--- \nEstimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.\n--- \nResolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).\n--- \nIf no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.\n--- \nEstimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. \n", - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20311,7 +21594,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20321,7 +21604,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A definition courtesy of [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA):\nAn initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program.\nA falling number of initial jobless claims is generally interpreted as indicating an improving economic situation, and a rising number vice versa. Before 2020-03-21, initial jobless claims had been below 300k for over 5 years, or 263 consecutive weeks. In the data series going back to 1967, the figure had never exceeded 700k.\nInitial claims for the week ending 2020-03-21 were 3.3MM, 11.7x the previous week's figure and 4.7x the previous record set in 1982. And the following week saw claims more than double to 6.8MM. Weekly initial claims have been mostly falling since then.\nWhen will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?\nThis prediction resolves when the US Department of Labor reports a seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims lower than 300,000. Data are to be found here: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA)\nThe resolution uses the \"observation date,\" which is the Saturday before the report is released. So if a report is released 2021-02-03 for the week ending 2021-01-30, the resolution date is 2021-01-30. \n", - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20384,7 +21667,7 @@ } ], "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", - "numforecasts": 44, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20394,7 +21677,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.\nWhen will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?\nTo qualify as a \"top\", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.\nThis question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.\nIf QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.\nIf the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \nEdit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. \n", - "numforecasts": 98, + "numforecasts": 101, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20498,7 +21781,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory.\nMMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics.\nWill a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?\nThis question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true:\nA. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic.\nB. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves)\nThis question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is \"for\" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20508,7 +21791,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 166, + "numforecasts": 169, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20539,7 +21822,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", - "numforecasts": 185, + "numforecasts": 187, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20570,7 +21853,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the [\"garrison\" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. \nThe Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and \"rivers\" and \"seas\" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History). The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. \nUnusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of \"rivers of mercury\". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. \nThe risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor of China is presumably buried - is yet to be excavated, although it seems more likely that the Chinese government is waiting until the resources and technology are available to preserve the mausoleum when it is excavated (a range of reasons are given [here](https://www.travelchinaguide.com/attraction/shaanxi/xian/terra_cotta_army/mausoleum_2.htm)).\nWhen will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?\nThis question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). \nThis will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20591,7 +21874,7 @@ } ], "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n", - "numforecasts": 81, + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20612,7 +21895,7 @@ } ], "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", - "numforecasts": 517, + "numforecasts": 519, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20622,7 +21905,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US expects to see an increase in the age of its labor force as more workers put off full time retirement at the traditional age of 65. Slowing population growth amongst American citizens, as well as declining societal support for seniors, work together to increase the median age of the average worker in the US labor force. \nIn 2019, the median age for employment in the US was 42.3, up from 42.1 in 2011. However, as the [struggles surrounding social security](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/12/business/social-security-shortfall-2020.html) rise, both from higher average life expectancies and and a growing elderly population, the US could see an increasingly older workforce. \nBarring the influence of population growth, the difference between the number of employed workers ages 16-19 and 65+ have increased from just over 2,000k workers to over 5,000k from 2011 to 2019, a trend that supports the slow growth of the median age. Although, according to a [research paper](https://siepr.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/Do.older_.workers.squeeze.out_.younger.workers_2.pdf) from Stanford, the age of the workforce does not necessarily influence or restrict entry into the workforce by younger workers.\nWhat will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 27, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20692,7 +21975,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. \nIn 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.\n“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”\nIn case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods. \nMoreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).\nWhen will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).\nWhen unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.\n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20732,7 +22015,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gender based pay gap has long existed as an issue across the US. Across all professions, levels of seniority, and time spent working, women made only [$0.81 to even man’s dollar](https://www.payscale.com/data/gender-pay-gap). Up 2% from 2019, and 7% from 2015, this gap is continuing to slowly close. It is estimated that without gender based pay discrimination and inequality, the natural gap would exist at approximately 98%. \nConsidering only individuals who work full time, ages 15 and greater, the gap is actually smaller, with rates in 2019 at [almost 83%](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2020/demo/p60-270/figure5.pdf). Across the country, women are consistently employed in part time jobs at rates much higher than men, a significant factor in the continuation of these pay differneces. [Working part time fuels the pay gap](https://www.epi.org/publication/part-time-pay-penalty/) and general gender inequality by decreasing hourly earnings below that of full-time workers, and also through the denial of employment benefits.\nWhat will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the [United States Census Bureau from Figure 5](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html) (as of 12/20). Figure 5 is labeled as \"Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio and Median Earnings of Full-Time, Year-Round Workers 15 Years and Older by Sex: 1960 to 2019.\" Historical data is also available from 1959 onward. Predictions should be represented as the a ratio between 0 and 1.\n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20743,27 +22026,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", - "numforecasts": 180, + "numforecasts": 197, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) \nAs of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 15, + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", - "numforecasts": 222, + "numforecasts": 225, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20794,7 +22087,7 @@ } ], "description": "The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023.\nThe \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).\nWill the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?\nThis question resolves \"yes\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\nThis question resolves \"no\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20825,7 +22118,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring entities (166 countries, plus Hong Kong) from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. The global average is 5.44.\nThe numerical scores are also grouped into 4 categories:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nWhat will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?\nThis prediction resolves as the raw, unweighted arithmetic mean of all scores as assigned by The Economist for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n", - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20835,7 +22128,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered \"Full democracies.\"\nThe 4 categories are:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nHow many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?*\nThis prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as \"Full democracies\" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20876,7 +22169,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", - "numforecasts": 187, + "numforecasts": 188, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20917,7 +22210,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria Foundation was the most funded charity, with $1.1 million; followed by GiveWell, with $837,000.\nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nA charity is considered to exist at the date of whichever of the following conditions occurs first:\n1--The charity becomes a legally registered entity in at least one country. For the purposes of this question, a \"charity\" does not have to be a non-profit. (For example, an LLC that receives donations counts as a \"charity\".) \n2--The charity can receive public donations. (For example, a few organizations have been able to receive donations through the Centre for Effective Altruism before achieving registered charity status.) \nEdge cases:\n---If a charity founded in or before 2020 changes its name in 2021 or later, it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities where each original charity existed prior to 2021, then it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities, at least one of which was founded after 2020, then it is considered NOT to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity that was founded in 2020 spins off a separate entity in 2021 or later, then the new entity is considered to have existed in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20927,7 +22220,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20937,7 +22230,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 95, + "numforecasts": 107, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20947,7 +22240,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20957,7 +22250,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy. In 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, [the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see previous Metaculus question here)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/). \nHowever, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So:\nHow many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?\nResolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time.\n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasts": 81, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20967,7 +22260,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020. \nOne Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities.\nAs of January 2021, [the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.](https://www.census.gov/popclock/)\nYou can view [historical US population data since 1935 here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Vital_statistics)\nWhen will there be at least one billion Americans?\nThis question resolves as the earliest date when at least one billion persons are estimated to live in the United States, according to the US Census Bureau.\nIf the question does not resolve before January 1, 2121, it resolves as \"After January 1, 2121.\"\nIf no estimate from the Census Bureau is available (or an estimate from an equivalent department of the US government), another credible source, such as the CIA World Factbook or United Nations will be used. This question resolves when any of these sources estimate that at least one billion persons live in the United States. If any of the listed sources cease to exist before the question resolves, Metaculus administrators may select new credible sources of information.\nThis question tracks the resident population (not just US citizens) of every state in the US, as well as territories within the contiguous US. In 2021, this means the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia, and the various American Indian reservations, but not Puerto Rico, American Samoa, etc.\n[Emulated people](https://ageofem.com/) shall be counted if they are included in the Census Bureau's typical (default) estimates of US residency. \n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 71, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20977,7 +22270,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that \"basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society\". \nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.\nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.\nWhat will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?\nThis question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.\nIf there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. \n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20987,7 +22280,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -20997,7 +22290,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase.\nWhen enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing improvement to be sure, but still well within the ≥1 logMAR score region considered legally blind.\nHow good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a retinal implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21007,7 +22300,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21017,7 +22310,17 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", - "numforecasts": 120, + "numforecasts": 128, + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAccording to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. \nIf labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. \nSince the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.\nHow many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.\n", + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21027,7 +22330,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities that have the greatest impact per marginal donation.\nGiveWell tracks how much money it moves to recommended charities. For instance, GiveWell [moved $152 million](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/) in 2019.\nHow much money will GiveWell move in 2031?\nIf GiveWell does not exist, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell does not report its money moved in 2031 and this information is not publicly accessible, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nFor this question, money moved equals the amount that can confidently be attributed to GiveWell's recommendations (in [the 2019 post](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/), \"headline money moved\" rather than \"best guess of total money directed to charities\").\n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21037,7 +22340,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "“In economics, the [Gini coefficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient#:~:text=The%20Gini%20coefficient%20is%20a,from%20a%20totally%20equal%20distribution.) (/ˈdʒiːni/ JEE-nee), sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. It was developed by the Italian statistician and sociologist Corrado Gini and published in his 1912 paper Variability and Mutability (Italian: Variabilità e mutabilità).”\nUsed to measure a country’s income inequality across the globe, the Gini Index has recently been appropriated by the ACS (American Community Services) to measure income inequality between households across the states and territories of the United States. [The index](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/acs-1year.html#:~:text=The%20Gini%20index%20is%20a,has%20all%20of%20the%20income.) ranges from 0 to 1, with complete equality at 0 and complete inequality at 1. Currently, most states and territories lie between the [0.4 and 0.5](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf) mark, with several notable exceptions above the 0.5 mark including Puerto Rico, New York, Connecticut, and Washington D.C.\nBy 2018, income inequality in the US was the [worst out of all the G7 nations](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/6-facts-about-economic-inequality-in-the-u-s/) with a Gini coefficient of .434. With the onset of the global Coronavirus pandemic in 2020, these inequalities have grown even greater.\n“Low-income populations are more exposed to the health risks and more likely to experience job losses and declines in well-being. These effects are even more concentrated in economically disadvantaged minorities. The pandemic is not only exacerbated by the deprivations and vulnerabilities of those left behind by rising inequality but its fallout is [pushing inequality higher.](https://www.brookings.edu/research/tackling-the-inequality-pandemic-is-there-a-cure/)” \nPredictions should represent the total number of US states and territories with reported Gini Indices above 0.5 as calculated by the US Census Bureau. \nHow many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data is available from the ACS between 2018 and 2019, and general Gini Index information on a country wide level is also available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?type=shaded&view=map&year=1967) with historical data reaching back to the 1960’s.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution for this question will be provided through the United States Census Bureau and their [annual report on household income](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.html). It will come from their 2025 annual report, for which an example report from 2019 can be found [here](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf).\n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21057,7 +22360,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [EIA recently reported](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that US crude oil production is expected to stay level throughout 2021 from its current level at the end of 2020. \n“The U.S. crude oil production forecast reflects EIA’s expectations that annual global petroleum demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels (101.5 million b/d in 2019) through at least 2021. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum will average 92.9 million b/d in 2020 and 98.8 million b/d in 2021.”\nIf demand continues to remain low, the number of rigs needed to provide crude oil will lower as well. Over the last 12 months, from February 7, 2020 to February 5, 2021, the number of rigs in the US [fell by 398 to a total of just 392](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview), representing a drop of over 50%. \nAs the market for oil begins the process of rebalancing, and as prices subsequently rise, we should see an increase in the number of rigs in the US back to pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWhen will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data can also be found [here](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from [Baker Hughes rig count](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview).\n", - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21078,7 +22381,7 @@ } ], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, + "numforecasts": 94, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21108,7 +22411,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the tournament resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "numforecasts": 105, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21118,7 +22421,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2022-01-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2022-01-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the December 2020 values the 2022-01-14 values.\n", - "numforecasts": 121, + "numforecasts": 124, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21128,7 +22431,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2022-01-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 118, + "numforecasts": 123, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21138,7 +22441,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", - "numforecasts": 100, + "numforecasts": 104, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21148,7 +22451,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 100, + "numforecasts": 102, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21179,7 +22482,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", - "numforecasts": 122, + "numforecasts": 124, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21189,7 +22492,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n", - "numforecasts": 83, + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21199,7 +22502,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [United States of America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) is a North American country that was established on July 4, 1776. The first [President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) was George Washington, and Donald John Trump is the 45th and current President.\nAlthough it may seem hard to imagine a future where there is no President of the United States for an extended period of time, political systems and the fates of nations change over time.\nUntil now, there have only been [minor gaps of a few days](https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-longest-time-the-United-States-has-gone-without-a-president) between the end of one president's term and the swearing in of the next.\nHow many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be, until that office remains vacant for a period of three consecutive months?\nThe question will resolve after the first span of three consecutive months where the office of the President of the United States is vacant, retroactively to the time at which the office became vacant. The time of resolution will be determined by the judgement of the Metaculus moderators on the basis of reliable news reports.\nIf the chief executive office is renamed, such that there is no longer a President of the United States, but there is still a single chief executive with the same or broadly similar powers and responsibilities, this will not trigger resolution. The aim of the question is to identify the date when there is no longer a single chief executive officer of the US.\nThe question shall track presidents who are democratically elected, or those appointed through the constitutional line of succession. If the US constitution is amended, such that presidents no longer have term limits or are appointed by other methods, the question will include those presidents, so long as they hold their power legally (defined by the contemporaneous constitution). \n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21220,7 +22523,7 @@ } ], "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n", - "numforecasts": 192, + "numforecasts": 194, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21230,7 +22533,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 108, + "numforecasts": 109, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21240,7 +22543,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 140, + "numforecasts": 142, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21250,7 +22553,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 96, + "numforecasts": 102, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21260,7 +22563,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21270,7 +22573,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 111, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21280,7 +22583,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\n", - "numforecasts": 92, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21290,7 +22593,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "numforecasts": 103, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21301,17 +22604,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.\nWill Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?\n2050 World Cup is included to this resolution. \nFIFA World Cup is considered the official tournament hosted under FIFA.\nIf any World Cup prior of 2050 is moved after 2050 it does not count.\n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21321,7 +22624,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 287, + "numforecasts": 317, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21331,7 +22634,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 167, + "numforecasts": 189, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21352,7 +22655,7 @@ } ], "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 426, + "numforecasts": 429, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21363,17 +22666,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 163, + "numforecasts": 166, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21383,7 +22686,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/health-wellness/article/3103054/freezing-bodies-reanimation-china-and-why-countrys),\nThe Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is the only cryonics research centre in China and one of only four such institutes in the world. The centres provide cryonic suspension: preserving bodies at extremely low temperatures with the hope of one day “reviving” them. But Yinfeng’s research goes further, and has the potential to revolutionise organ transplant, body-part reattachment and other medical treatments.\nAccording to the Oregon Cryonics page on [terminology](http://www.oregoncryo.com/terminology.html), \nWe refer to a body or brain that we are trying to preserve as a patient.\nAs of September 27th 2020, the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is storing 10 patients.\nHow many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?\nThis question resolves as the number of patients stored by the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute as of the most recent media or official report published before 2026. If no such report is published after or during 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case the organization changes its name, this question resolves according to the new organization, which is its successor. In the case the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute goes bankrupt or ceases to exist, this question resolves as the number of patients they stored before they stopped existing, if a report was published after or during 2024.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21393,7 +22696,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019.\nAlthough only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.\nWhen will the next interstellar object be discovered?\nThis question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [\"I\" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available \"[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)\" data, this question resolves when the formal \"interstellar\" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before 12/31/2030, this question resolves as \">12/31/30.\"\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21403,7 +22706,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%) amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 95, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21413,7 +22716,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21423,7 +22726,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 92, + "numforecasts": 94, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21433,7 +22736,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (for a description of 'domain knowledge' in the context of Montezuma's Revenge, see [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 138, + "numforecasts": 145, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21443,7 +22746,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21453,7 +22756,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2021 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 96, + "numforecasts": 98, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21463,7 +22766,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 95, + "numforecasts": 98, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21473,7 +22776,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 125, + "numforecasts": 130, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21483,7 +22786,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2026-12-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2026-12-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O-NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2026-12-14.\n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 112, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21493,7 +22796,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", - "numforecasts": 305, + "numforecasts": 323, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21503,7 +22806,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", - "numforecasts": 97, + "numforecasts": 105, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21513,7 +22816,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 167, + "numforecasts": 170, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21523,7 +22826,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 93, + "numforecasts": 97, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21533,7 +22836,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 77, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21553,7 +22856,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21563,7 +22866,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21573,7 +22876,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 27, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21583,7 +22886,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21593,7 +22896,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21603,7 +22906,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21613,7 +22916,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", - "numforecasts": 175, + "numforecasts": 182, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21624,17 +22927,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.\nAs Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.\nA key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.\nHere are some articles describing these issues:\n---[Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) \n---[The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation) \n---[Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707) \nWill none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify.\nThis question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following:\n---Donald Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Eric Trump \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", - "numforecasts": 166, + "numforecasts": 171, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21686,7 +22989,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n", - "numforecasts": 212, + "numforecasts": 218, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21696,7 +22999,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21706,7 +23009,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21716,7 +23019,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21726,7 +23029,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21736,7 +23039,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21746,7 +23049,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 77, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21756,7 +23059,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years.\nYet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called \"third-party candidates\" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%.\nWhat percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?\nThis resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21777,7 +23080,7 @@ } ], "description": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)\nWill a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis prediction resolves positive if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 5% or more of the national popular vote, and negative if one does not.\n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21798,7 +23101,7 @@ } ], "description": "During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. \nThere have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. \nThe above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd).\nWill Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?\nThis question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes](https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/housingdata) for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for \"S.F. Bay Area\" is <= $1.045mm\n", - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21818,7 +23121,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) are a means by which the President can govern via their executive powers. They are often seen as a way for the President to circumvent Congress in order to achieve their policy agenda. Some recent Executive Orders by Trump include:\n---[Trump's travel ban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13780) \n---[Revival of the National Space Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Space_Council#Revival) \nHow many [Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) will President Biden have issued, on a weekly basis, prior to noon on January 20 2025 and while he is president?\nHere are the last seven presidents for comparison:\nCarter: 1.53 E.O./week\nReagan: 0.91 E.O./week\nBush I: 0.80 E.O./week\nClinton: 0.87 E.O./week\nBush II: 0.70 E.O./week\nObama: 0.65 E.O./week\nTrump: ~1,00 E.0./week (as of 14-Jan-21)\nHow many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?\nThe [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) will provide the final numbers. This question resolves on January 31th 2025 at noon, at the latest (Federal Register numbers can take a few days after the White House’s statements).\nRelated Questions \n---[How much will President Trump govern by decree](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1430/how-much-will-president-trump-govern-by-decree/) \n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21839,7 +23142,7 @@ } ], "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", - "numforecasts": 163, + "numforecasts": 165, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21881,7 +23184,7 @@ } ], "description": "India is a middle-income country [ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020.\nIn 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently [estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October/weo-report?c=534,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PPPSH,PCPIPCH,&sy=1980&ey=2020&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1).\nWill India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021?\nResolution will be based on the [Federal Reserve Economic Data series NAEXKP01INQ657S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=NAEXKP01INQ657S,), which shows seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter growth in India's GDP at constant 2015 prices. The question will resolve positive if all three data points for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2021 are positive. It will resolve negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 44, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21892,17 +23195,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "According to [earthquaketrack.com](http://earthquaketrack.com) the largest quake this past year: 6.6 in Néa Anatolí, Crete, Greece\nThe area is geologically active an had an estimated 8-8.5 earthquake in 365 A.D.\nThe 365 Crete earthquake occurred at about sunrise on 21 July 365 in the Eastern Mediterranean, with an assumed epicenter near Crete Geologists today estimate the undersea earthquake to have been a magnitude 8.0 or higher. It caused widespread destruction in central and southern Greece, northern Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, Sicily, and Spain. On Crete, nearly all towns were destroyed.\nThe Crete earthquake was followed by a tsunami which devastated the southern and eastern coasts of the Mediterranean, particularly Libya, Alexandria and the Nile Delta, killing thousands and hurling ships 3 km (1.9 mi) inland.\nWill there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?\nThis question will resolve if by Dec. 31 2021 an earthquake measuring 7.0 or larger occurring either underneath or within 80 Kilometres from sea shores of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, being defined as a line running from Southern Sicily thru Malta to Misrata Libya. This will include the whole Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea, and Leviathan Sea.\nEarthquake must be verified by either: European-Mediterranean Seismological Center Earthquake Track\n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasts": 39, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21923,7 +23226,7 @@ } ], "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n", - "numforecasts": 171, + "numforecasts": 175, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21933,7 +23236,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The World Economic Forum and The Commons Project Foundation are launching [CommonPass](https://commonpass.org/), an app intended as \"a secure and verifiable way [for travelers] to document their health status as they travel and cross borders,\" including COVID-19 vaccination and testing information. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good); professor Douglas Kamerow of the British Medical Journal [fears a new class divide,](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n85) but would be reassured \"if some government agencies or WHO were leading this activity\"; and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be, but major airline alliances are already signed on and the system is in the early deployment phase.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official CommonPass, ICAO, or IATA statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21953,7 +23256,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.).\nSince then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/).\nWhen, if ever, will people <18 years old vote in national elections in the US?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President.\nOnly [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections are not relevant to the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21963,7 +23266,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Currently, [14 countries](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) allow voting by young people with no major restrictions (as of Jan. 16, 2021). Another 14 countries allow some citizens <18 years of age suffrage with major qualifications, usually related to marriage, employment, or type of election.\nA number of [movements or proposals to allow minors to vote](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/us/politics/voting-age.html) are active or have been proposed in dozens of countries as of 2021.\nHow many countries will allow people younger than 18 to vote, with no major conditions, in 2026?\nBroad enfranchisement, with no major restrictions, of the chosen age group in a country is required for that country to be added to the total. Restrictions that require marriage (as in Hungary and Indonesia) or employment (as in Slovenia and Croatia) or restrict <18 voters to local elections only/European elections only (as in Scotland or Belgium) disqualify a country for purposes of this question. \nRestrictions commonly applied to voting adults do not disqualify a country; it's okay if <18 voters need ID, or must be a citizen, or have no criminal convictions, etc.\nVoting age must be lowered at least ten months below 18 years old to count; e.g. 17-year-old suffrage counts, but 17.5-year-old suffrage does not.\nAt least 70% of the age group in question must be enfranchised to count; places like Germany and the US where minors may vote in states or municipalities comprising <70% of the country's population do not suffice.\nResolution will use [the NYRA tracker](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) as a primary source, or [Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_age) and credible media reports if necessary.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -21974,17 +23277,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 232, + "numforecasts": 275, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22005,7 +23308,7 @@ } ], "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 196, + "numforecasts": 197, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22016,17 +23319,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", - "numforecasts": 136, + "numforecasts": 147, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22046,7 +23349,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "On December 8th 2020, Starship SN8 was the first SpaceX Starship prototype to fly to a height of at least 1 km (12.5 km to be specific). SpaceX intends to one day use Starship to bring humans to Mars.\nWhen will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the third Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. The criteria for \"flight\" are the same as in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4622/how-many-more-starship-prototypes-will-be-destroyed-before-one-flies/), notably, the Starship must reach a height of at least 1 km intact for resolution, and what counts as a Starship is outlined in [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/).\nThis question has [a sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339), asking about the 2nd Starship flight.\n", - "numforecasts": 506, + "numforecasts": 570, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22056,7 +23359,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 83, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22066,7 +23369,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 116, + "numforecasts": 119, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22077,17 +23380,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)).\nWill EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22108,7 +23411,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:\n--- \nwhen requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),\n--- \nto address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),\n--- \nor to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).\nThe Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).\nRecent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This question asks:\nWill the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that the Insurrection Act has been invoked in the United States prior to 1 January 2025. No additional criteria need be met for this question to resolve positive.\nThis question will close retroactively to two days prior to the invocation of the Act should the Act be invoked. If the exact time of the invocation cannot be determined, the time of the first credible report will be used instead.\n\nRelated questions\n-----------------\n\n---[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) \n---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nIf positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22118,7 +23421,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The first petascale supercomputer--that is, a computer capable of performing 10^15 floating-point operations per second, or one petaFLOP--[came online in 2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_performance_by_orders_of_magnitude). \nThe first exascale computers (10^18 operations) are expected [later this year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/) and were [originally expected by Metaculus late last year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/).\nThe first zettascale computers, which can perform 10^21 operations per second, are not yet on the horizon.\nWhen will zettascale computing be achieved?\nResolves when the [Top500 list](https://top500.org/lists/top500/) (or other credible source, Wikipedia included, if Top500 isn't around) lists a computer capable of one zettaFLOP or higher Rmax (or broadly equivalent performance measure if Rmax is no longer used) performance. \nHistorical Top500 data available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit#gid=660616297).\nDistributed computing projects like Folding@home do not suffice for positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22139,7 +23442,7 @@ } ], "description": "AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit key size. The key size of 256 bits appears to render a brute-force search of the keyspace infeasible on foreseeable classical and quantum computers--the latter still must search an effective keyspace of 128 bits (see Grover's algorithm). The best publicly known attack on AES-256 requires the search of a keyspace slightly greater than 254 bits, which is infeasible. This keyspace is so large that a brute force search would be energy-constrained on a solar-system scale even with unlimited computing power at the physical limits of efficiency. \nThere is some consideration that mathematical and / or cryptoanalytic advances may enable new attacks on AES-256 that could make key recovery computationally feasible. Public, and presumably private, cryptanalysis of AES-256 is ongoing so it is plausible that by some means a practical break could become public knowledge by 2040. Advances in AI before the resolution date may plausibly speed up the rate of relevant mathematical and crytoanalytic discoveries. \nWill AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?\nAnything that is not a computationally feasible break of the algorithm itself will not resolve positive. For example, any kind of dictionary attack, including AI-generated dictionaries, does not resolve positive. Side-channel attacks do not resolve positive. Any other attacks on implementations of AES-256, but not the specification for the AES-256 algorithm itself, do not resolve positive. Non-cryptographic means of key recovery, such as interrogation, brain scan, theft or espionage do not resolve positive. \nThis question resolves positive if before 12:01 AM GMT on January 1 2040 a credible, practically demonstrated* means of determining a AES-256 secret key without any special knowledge except the given ciphertext is made known to the public. Correspondingly, attacks that require a plaintext or more than one ciphertext for a given key do not resolve positive.\n*\"Practically demonstrated\" means that a successful attack against AES-256 was actually carried out.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22150,17 +23453,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22180,7 +23483,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).\nWhen will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?\n---Countries with 1M population size only. \n---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. \n---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). \n---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. \n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22201,7 +23504,7 @@ } ], "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n--- \n[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)\n--- \n[When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)\nThe [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers , which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function other than these trivial zeroes had real part equal to .\nThe conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic for the prime counting function . It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations.\nWill the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22212,17 +23515,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 148, + "numforecasts": 152, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22232,7 +23535,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "--- \nThe UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election.\n--- \nThere have been three general elections since the Act was passed in 2011. Only one, the very first in 2015, was on the five-year schedule fixed by the Act. \n--- \nIn 2017, an election was called via a provision in the Act which triggers an early election if two-thirds of MPs support it. Theresa May, therefore, was able to demand an election.\n--- \nIn 2019, the Act was circumvented by a [special-purpose Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019) passed through both Houses of Parliament.\n--- \nThe government has, furthermore, begun the process to [repeal the Act](https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2019-21/fixedtermparliamentsact2011repeal.html) - with the intention of returning the discretion to call elections back to the prime minister. There are some constitutional issues it creates, but the intention is to restore power over the timing of elections to the executive.\n--- \nThere has never been complete discretion over elections: even before the FTPA, parliamentary sittings could not exceed a five-year term. That has been a feature of British politics since 1911. Prior to 1911, the maximum term was 7 years. Proposals to ditch the FTPA have, to date, not envisage moving to a longer or shorter maximum term. \n--- \nHistorically, it was quite normal for parliaments not to go to term. Some PMs went early for elections because they lost their majorities in parliament - like Jim Callaghan in 1979. Sometimes it was because they figured a slightly earlier election would be easier to win than one at the five-year mark. Blair, for example, called his two elections as sitting prime minister four years into each term - in 2001 and 2005. \n--- \nGovernments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the FTPA, been governments expecting to lose. Prime ministers delayed elections in the hope that the political temper would move in their favour. Major won a shock victory in 1992 in a vote almost 5 years after the 1987 election. He lost, five years later, in 1997. Gordon Brown held on to reach the fifth year in 2010.\nWhen will the UK hold its next general election?\nThis question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22253,7 +23556,7 @@ } ], "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22295,7 +23598,7 @@ } ], "description": "An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).\nThis question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.\nIn the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?\nThis will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021\n", - "numforecasts": 121, + "numforecasts": 129, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22325,7 +23628,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).\nWhen will China become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.\n", - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22346,7 +23649,7 @@ } ], "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n", - "numforecasts": 133, + "numforecasts": 135, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22388,7 +23691,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", - "numforecasts": 92, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22399,17 +23702,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22429,7 +23732,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March\n", - "numforecasts": 52, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22439,7 +23742,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22449,7 +23752,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22469,7 +23772,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22489,7 +23792,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22509,7 +23812,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22519,7 +23822,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22539,7 +23842,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22559,7 +23862,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nVarda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. \nAs of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. \nPredictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda.\nWhen will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22569,7 +23872,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22580,17 +23883,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22611,7 +23914,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 211, + "numforecasts": 213, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22664,17 +23967,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22684,31 +23987,10 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", - "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 be vaccinated again due to a mutation?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6433/us-cdc-recommends-revaccination-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/", @@ -22736,7 +24018,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22757,7 +24039,7 @@ } ], "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", - "numforecasts": 141, + "numforecasts": 142, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22767,7 +24049,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22778,17 +24060,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", - "numforecasts": 71, + "numforecasts": 80, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22799,17 +24081,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n", - "numforecasts": 157, + "numforecasts": 168, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22819,7 +24101,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n", - "numforecasts": 140, + "numforecasts": 164, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22840,7 +24122,7 @@ } ], "description": "At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.\nWill the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\nThe label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UK’s [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-être animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasts": 13, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22851,17 +24133,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 20, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22871,7 +24153,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.\nGermany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.\nFrench Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.\nIn March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.\nThe Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.\nAssoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs\nWhen will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?\nThis resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:\n1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and \n2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. \nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.\nIn case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22924,17 +24206,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22945,17 +24227,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "probability": 0.22999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n", - "numforecasts": 96, + "numforecasts": 110, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -22965,7 +24247,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nBetween 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nIn Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0).\nFor detailed statistics and a current snapshot of Liberal attitudes to gender representation, see Gender & Politics 2020 from the Liberal Party-affiliated Menzies Research Centre ([free download, but registration required](https://www.menziesrc.org/news-feed/gender-and-politics)).\nIn 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?\nThis question will resolve as the percent of Liberal women MPs in state and federal governments, on 2026-01-01, at 00:00 AEDT. Government membership lists will be allowed as an official source. \nThe \"Coalition\" arrangement between the Liberal Party and the National Party means that some decisions are needed about who is or is not a \"Liberal\" parliamentarian. \nAt the state level, a Liberal parliamentarian is any member of the Liberal Party in each state but Queensland, the Liberal National Party in Queensland, the Canberra Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. If the Liberal and National parties merge in any other states/territories, all parliamentarians in the merged party will be counted. \nIf the Liberal National Party splits into separate Liberal and National parties, only parliamentarians in the Queensland Liberal Party (or, if a different name is chosen, any branch affiliated with the federal Liberal Party) will be counted. \n--\nAt the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will be counted. If the Liberal and National party rooms merge, all parliamentarians in the joint room count. \n--\nIf party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. \n--\nOnly state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 19, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22975,7 +24257,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "There have been two 10+ km testflights of prototypes of SpaceX's reusable Starship upper stage, meant to verify the rocket's landing manuever, one on December 8th 2020, the other on February 2nd 2021. Both flights have ended in Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly (RUD) upon contact with the ground.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?\nThis question resolves to the time of the first Starship flight that both goes above 5 km, and successfully lands in one piece, in a manner representative of how the Starship is meant to land. The criteria for \"flight\" are the same as in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4622/how-many-more-starship-prototypes-will-be-destroyed-before-one-flies/), and what counts as a Starship is outlined in [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/), namely:\n--- \nTo trigger resolution, the prototype must be intact at an altitude of 5 km, having ascended by firing its engines. It does not count if an explosion flings portions of the prototype to an altitude of 5 km.\n--- \nThe vehicle must not be an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative\n--- \nThe vehicle should be intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended)\n--- \nThe vehicle must [represent part of an intended full launch system that has] a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today.\n--- \nThe vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -22996,7 +24278,7 @@ } ], "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23017,7 +24299,7 @@ } ], "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", - "numforecasts": 108, + "numforecasts": 115, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23028,17 +24310,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.29000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.\n[Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.\nNote: I am using \"DNA data\", \"genomics data\", \"genetic data\" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect.\nWill there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the New York Times (or another similarly reputable source) reports, before January 1 2030, on the following having occurred:\n1-- \nGenetic data collected through either medical testing or direct-to-consumer products\n2-- \nIs used to inflict harm on one or more individuals\n3-- \nWithout their consent\nRecognizing that \"harm\" and \"consent\" can be fuzzy, here are some examples meant to clarify the intent of the question.\nThe following examples do not count as positive resolutions:\n--- \nSpeculation that such a harm is possible, plausible, or likely\n--- \nGenetic data is leaked or hacked but there is no evidence about specific harmful uses resulting from this.\n--- \nGenetic data is collected in a bespoke way for the purposes of harm (eg a state power collects DNA from a targeted individual).\n--- \nIndividuals suffer psychic harm from discovering family infidelities (this is so common already that it is \"baked in\" to consent). \nThe following examples do count as positive resolutions: \n--- \nEvidence of discrimination or insurance rates being set from individual-level genomics without explicit customer authorization (\"would you like to submit your DNA profile to Anthem?\"), even if legal and authorized under a vague terms of service\n--- \nAn outside actor gaining access to genomics data, learning about family infidelities, and publishing this broadly. \n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23048,7 +24330,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 104, + "numforecasts": 113, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23058,7 +24340,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)\n--- \n[What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/)\nCryptocurrencies' prices are dictated both by speculation and utility. Bitcoin's price movement seems to be driven by its use as an investment vehicle with increasingly many platforms offering consumers the opportunity to hold Bitcoin e.g. [BITW](https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/funds/Bitwise-10), and [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC). Much of the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem including Ethereum, Polkadot and Chainlink supports underlying infrastructure and decentralized applications. \nBitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypto sector as a whole is driven by its investment potential as currencies as opposed to its platform potential as blockchains.\nWhat will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?\nThis question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23068,7 +24350,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to .\nWhen will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved or disproved?\nThis question will resolve as the date when the Clay Mathematics Institute announces that the Hypothesis has been proved or disproved according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), or when it is shown to be independent of the standard ZFC axioms.\nIn case the Clay Mathematics Institute is discontinued or no longer awards prizes for resolved Millennium Prize Problems, it resolves when admins decide that there is a consensus amongst relevant leading pure mathematicians about the Hypothesis being resolved.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23078,7 +24360,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will Russia become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n", - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 17, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23088,7 +24370,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23098,7 +24380,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n", - "numforecasts": 93, + "numforecasts": 97, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23119,7 +24401,7 @@ } ], "description": "Each year since 2011, the programming Q&A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.\nHowever, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:\nWill JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?\nThis question resolves positively if:\n1--A summary of the 2030 Stack Overflow Annual Survey results is released, \n2--Those results contain some version of a 'most commonly used programming languages' question, and \n3--In the view of Metaculus admins resolving this question, JavaScript has the highest percentage of any programming language in the relevant 'most common'/'most popular' list, among all survey respondents. If another programming language is instead the 'most commonly used', this question resolves negatively. \nIf Stack Overflow does not release the results of a 2030 Annual Developer Survey for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. If no 'commonly used programming languages' question is included, this question also resolves ambiguously. If the organization currently known as Stack Overflow changes name or structure, continuity will be judged by Metaculus admins.\nStack Overflow Annual Developer surveys do not need to be conducted in each consecutive year for the purposes of this question's resolution --- a cessation of all surveys from 2021 to 2029 is irrelevant --- but results of a 2030 survey must be publicly reported. \n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23130,17 +24412,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 52, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23161,7 +24443,7 @@ } ], "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", - "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasts": 11, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23182,7 +24464,7 @@ } ], "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 164, + "numforecasts": 168, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23193,17 +24475,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "From wikipedia \"the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control.\"\n[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps) is an introductory video. And see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) for a definition of AGI arrival.\nWill the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?\nThe question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus.\nNote this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative. \n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 30, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23213,7 +24495,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23223,7 +24505,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23233,7 +24515,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23243,7 +24525,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 54, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23253,7 +24535,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23263,7 +24545,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23273,7 +24555,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Bitcoin's network relies on the process of blockchain mining, which involves finding blocks on the network through performing computations that result in the addition of transaction records to Bitcoin's public ledger of past transactions. The network's hash rate is the total of the speed at which all mining machines operate. As of writing this question, Bitcoin's network hash rate is around 165M tera hashes per second.\nWhat will Bitcoin's network hash rate per second be (in Millions of tera hashes per second) as per the performance rates posted by [blockchain.com](https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=2years) on 17 November 2022?\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23283,7 +24565,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23293,7 +24575,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23303,7 +24585,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23313,7 +24595,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23323,7 +24605,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23333,7 +24615,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23343,7 +24625,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23353,7 +24635,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23363,7 +24645,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23373,7 +24655,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23383,7 +24665,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23393,7 +24675,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23403,7 +24685,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23434,7 +24716,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive) — this question. \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23465,7 +24747,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23476,17 +24758,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question.\nWill the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?\nResolves to \"yes\" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to \"no\" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23496,7 +24778,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving \"herd immunity\" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)\nIt is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains.\nIn this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). \nWhen (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?\nThis will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.)\nIf data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23506,7 +24788,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" in the US as 34.7M.\nOn what date will this number reach 100M?\nWhen will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?\nThe [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nResolves to the first date on which the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" at the above link is above 100M.\nIf the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M.\n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23516,7 +24798,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. \nIndefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution.\nPresident Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. \nIn January 2018, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to keep the detention camp open indefinitely.\nIn February 2021, [the Biden Administration made it clear that it intends to shut down the facility.](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/politics/biden-guantanamo-bay/index.html) According to CNN:\nThe Biden administration intends to close the Guantánamo Bay detention facility, which houses approximately 40 prisoners, by the end of their term.\nWhen asked by a reporter during a press briefing on Friday if the prison would be closed by the time President Joe Biden leaves office, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, \"That's certainly our goal and our intention.\"\nWhen will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?\nThis question resolves as the date that credible reports indicate that the detention camp has been permanently closed by the U.S. government.\nClosures that are intended to be temporary, e.g. for renovation, construction work, due to natural disasters, or for other reasons, do not count.\n", - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23526,7 +24808,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Belarus held a presidential election on August 9th 2020. While the official results showed Alexander Lukashenko winning with over 80% of the vote, international observers considered the election to be neither free nor fair. A [large-scale protest movement emerged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests) and the authorities responded violently with over 1,000 testimonies of torture victims now documented.\nOpposition figure Valery Tsepkalo [predicted that the Lukashenko regime 'could fall in two weeks'](https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-alexander-lukashenkos-regime-could-fall-in-two-weeks-presidential-hopeful-predicts-12051939) back in August 2020 (shortly after the election). As of the writing of this question, well over 5 months after his comments, Lukashenko appears to be in full control and a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/) asking whether he would remain in power until January 31st 2021 has resolved positively.\nHowever, Lukashenko has promised constitutional changes, which he says will be implemented [after a referendum in early 2022](https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashenko-hints-at-leaving-but-not-today/a-56537777). Lukashenko has [previously promised to step down after a new constitution is adopted](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lukashenko-belarus-election-b1762811.html). The opposition generally considers this an empty promise.\nWhen will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?\nThis question will be resolved to the earliest date on which there is credible media reporting that Lukashenko has ceased to hold the office of president. In the case where Lukashenko claims to be president in addition to at least one other person, the question will resolve only if Lukashenko no longer holds the \"means of power\" (broadly, controls the military and police).\nIf Alexander Lukashenko does not leave power before the end of 2039, this question resolves as \">\".\n", - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23547,7 +24829,7 @@ } ], "description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.\nWill there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, + "numforecasts": 75, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23558,17 +24840,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created.\nRather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws.\nHowever, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described.\nAlcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013)\nWill a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds.\nThis demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23578,7 +24860,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23588,7 +24870,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23598,7 +24880,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "numforecasts": 129, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23608,7 +24890,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 44, + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23618,7 +24900,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23628,7 +24910,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23638,7 +24920,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23648,7 +24930,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23658,7 +24940,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23668,7 +24950,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23678,7 +24960,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23688,7 +24970,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 44, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23698,7 +24980,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23708,7 +24990,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 44, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23718,7 +25000,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23728,7 +25010,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23738,7 +25020,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23748,7 +25030,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23758,7 +25040,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23768,7 +25050,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23778,7 +25060,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:\nthe short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?\nThis question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:\nThe range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.\nPatients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom \n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23789,17 +25071,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On Feb 12, Alex Tabarrok [wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/12/first-doses-vaccine-rules-fda/) advocating for several policies that would speed up vaccinations. \nA “first doses first” approach — that is, prioritizing first doses by delaying the second shot from three to four weeks (the period studied in clinical trials) to 12 weeks — would allow more people to get vaccinated quickly, for example. \n“Fractional” dosing, such as by giving half-doses, would instantly increase the vaccine supply and has been used successfully in previous epidemics.\nGiving the Americans who have already been infected (up to 100 million people) only one shot would help doses go further.\nIt also urges approval of more vaccines.\nWill the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?\nThis question resolves positively if prior to Apr 1st, credible reports say that US health officials have implemented any of the following policies from the above op-ed:\n--- \nApproval of Astrazeneca, Novavax, or Sputnik vaccines\n--- \nHalf dosing of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines\n--- \nDelaying the second dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines\n--- \nGiving only one shot to those who have previously recovered from Covid-19\n", - "numforecasts": 108, + "numforecasts": 161, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23809,7 +25091,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:\nThe People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.\nWhile the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.\nWhen will China officially cease to be a socialist state?\nThis question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:\n1-- \nThere is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five [autonomous regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_China) of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.\nAny future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.\n2-- \nThe constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.\nThe resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as >.\nFor the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.\nThe first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question. \n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23819,17 +25101,38 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.\nWill Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?\nA report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product.\n", + "numforecasts": 19, + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23850,7 +25153,7 @@ } ], "description": "A [primordial black hole](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Primordial_black_hole) (PBH) is\na hypothetical type of black hole that formed soon after the Big Bang...Since primordial black holes did not form from stellar gravitational collapse, their masses can be far below stellar mass.\nAs of this writing, no direct observational evidence of PBHs exists.\n[Dark matter](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Dark_matter) is\na form of matter thought to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe...Its presence is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained by accepted theories of gravity unless more matter is present than can be seen.\nHowever,\ndark matter has not yet been observed directly, [therefore,] if it exists, it must barely interact with ordinary matter and radiation, except through gravity.\nIt has been suggested ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722)) that PBHs are a natural candidate for dark matter. Although astrophysical measurements and theoretical arguments have put severe constraints ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Figure 3) on the possibility that PBHs constitute a significant fraction of dark matter across most of the PBH mass range. However, the \"asteroid mass region\" between - kg has not been ruled out yet, although this may merely \"reflect the difficulty of detecting such light compact objects\" ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Section IV).\nWill most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?\nThis question resolves positively if the scientific consensus (as defined in the fine print) at resolution date is that primordial black holes represent 50% or more of the mass contained in dark matter in the observable universe today.\nThis question resolves negatively if the consensus is that said figure is less than 50% or that dark matter does not exist.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no consensus.\nThe scientific consensus on the matter will be determined following the protocol outlined in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/).\nThe question posed to the experts will be \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that primordial black holes constitute at least 50% of dark matter? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\"\nThe sample of experts will be determined using the arXiv categories \"Astrophysics of Galaxies\", \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\", and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology\".\nIf the arXiv no longer exists or the volume and/or quality of papers posted have decreased substantially (as judged by Metaculus mods) by resolution date, the sample of experts will be chosen following a similar procedure with details to be determined at the discretion the Metaculus mods. \n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23860,7 +25163,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): \nThe blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911.\nInteresting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment)\nWhat will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?\nThe question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval.\n", - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23881,7 +25184,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23892,17 +25195,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "probability": 0.07999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23923,7 +25226,7 @@ } ], "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) \nStarlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.\nWill starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?\nThis will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23933,7 +25236,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23943,7 +25246,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23953,7 +25256,17 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 21, + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n", + "numforecasts": 27, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23963,7 +25276,17 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries.\nWhat will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?\nThis question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly.\n", - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 18, + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n", + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -23974,17 +25297,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 59, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -23994,7 +25317,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n", - "numforecasts": 115, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -24015,7 +25338,7 @@ } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?\nThis question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 116, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -24036,7 +25359,7 @@ } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "numforecasts": 83, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -24047,17 +25370,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.\nWill US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?\nThis question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -24067,7 +25390,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -24088,7 +25411,7 @@ } ], "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -24109,7 +25432,7 @@ } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n", - "numforecasts": 124, + "numforecasts": 127, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -24130,7 +25453,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -24151,7 +25474,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.\nWill the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -24172,7 +25495,7 @@ } ], "description": "On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.\nWill Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -24183,17 +25506,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -24203,7 +25526,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident).\nWhat will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?\nThis question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -24224,7 +25547,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).\nWill Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -24245,7 +25568,7 @@ } ], "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 39, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -24266,7 +25589,7 @@ } ], "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -24276,7 +25599,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).\nWhat will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?\nWhat will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -24287,17 +25610,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasts": 100, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -24308,17 +25631,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.\nThe paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf).\nWill the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024\nAn official government announcement is sufficient e.g. statement in parliament or press release on [gov.uk](http://gov.uk)\nA pilot scheme will count as positive resolution.\nThe zoning laws to be voted on must include at least the following options:\n--- \nNumber of floors\n--- \nPlot use\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -24339,7 +25662,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -24349,7 +25672,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 107, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -24359,7 +25682,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -24369,7 +25692,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -24379,7 +25702,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -24389,7 +25712,141 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 42, + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", + "numforecasts": 27, + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n", + "numforecasts": 167, + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n", + "numforecasts": 33, + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 18, + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n", + "numforecasts": 28, + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6710/us-school-staff-to-get-1st-dose-by-31-march/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [\"every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program.\nWill every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. \nIf there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6717/-b117-in-the-us-21-27-march/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1.\nB.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. The B.1.1.7 variant is the most frequent variant sequenced in the US. As of 1 March, the [CDC has reported](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) 2,506 cases of B.1.1.7 compared to 65 cases of B.1.351 and 10 cases of P.1. One or more cases of B.1.1.7 have been reported in 46 jurisdictions.\nIn response to an increased incidence of sequenced viral samples that are identified as B.1.1.7, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, an increased need for vaccination, and an increased rate of genomic sequencing.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?\nThis question will resolve as the 7 day rolling average of % sequences that are B.1.1.7 in the U.S. on 27 March 2021 (i.e. the average percentage between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021) at the following website: [https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country](https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country). This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 6 April 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 11, + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 11, + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nThere is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\nData sources and more information:\n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---[Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variants from neutralization by convalescent plasma](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) \n---[Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) \n---[Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \nHow many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?\nThis question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday).\n", + "numforecasts": 13, "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -24400,12 +25857,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.7524752475247525, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.24752475247524752, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24420,22 +25877,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5288461538461539, + "probability": 0.5238095238095238, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4326923076923077, + "probability": 0.4380952380952381, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Libertarian", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24450,12 +25907,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.548076923076923, + "probability": 0.5436893203883496, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.45192307692307687, + "probability": 0.45631067961165045, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24470,12 +25927,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5784313725490196, + "probability": 0.5841584158415841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4215686274509804, + "probability": 0.4158415841584158, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24490,47 +25947,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "22 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "25", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26", - "probability": 0.22115384615384615, + "probability": 0.2201834862385321, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27", - "probability": 0.7115384615384615, + "probability": 0.7155963302752293, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or more", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24545,12 +26002,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24565,12 +26022,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24585,12 +26042,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24598,86 +26055,6 @@ "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Miguel Cardona", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lily Eskelsen Garcia", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Randi Weingarten", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "L. Darling-Hammond", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Amy Gutmann", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Betsy DeVos", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jahana Hayes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tony Thurmond", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Freeman A. Hrabowski", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sonja Santelises", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eduardo Padrón", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sean Spiller", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Leslie Fenwick", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sharon Contreras", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/28/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/28/2021 2:59 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In the event that Mr. Cardona is confirmed on March 1, if there is any uncertainty as to whether he has been sworn in by the End Date, this market will remain open for trading until PredictIt has determined the time he was sworn in.\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:19 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Miguel Cardona, Lily Eskelsen Garcia, Randi Weingarten, L. Darling-Hammond, Amy Gutmann, Betsy DeVos, Jahana Hayes, Tony Thurmond, Freeman A. Hrabowski, Sonja Santelises, Eduardo Padrón, Sean Spiller, Leslie Fenwick, Sharon Contreras" - }, { "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14", @@ -24685,12 +26062,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24745,12 +26122,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24765,78 +26142,78 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.4210526315789473, + "probability": 0.44347826086956516, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.17543859649122806, + "probability": 0.17391304347826086, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.12280701754385964, + "probability": 0.1217391304347826, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.09649122807017543, + "probability": 0.08695652173913043, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.06140350877192982, + "probability": 0.0608695652173913, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.026315789473684206, + "probability": 0.026086956521739126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "probability": 0.017391304347826084, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Catsimatidis", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "probability": 0.017391304347826084, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Rose", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zach Iscol", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Catsimatidis", + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Raymond McGuire, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales, Kathryn Garcia, John Catsimatidis, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Curtis Sliwa, Max Rose, Zach Iscol" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Raymond McGuire, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Curtis Sliwa, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?", @@ -24885,12 +26262,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24905,12 +26282,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24925,12 +26302,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24945,12 +26322,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5980392156862745, + "probability": 0.6138613861386139, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.40196078431372545, + "probability": 0.38613861386138615, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24965,12 +26342,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5841584158415841, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4158415841584158, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24985,12 +26362,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25005,12 +26382,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25025,7 +26402,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Samantha Power", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -25075,12 +26452,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25095,12 +26472,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.7524752475247525, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.24752475247524752, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25115,22 +26492,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Terry McAuliffe", - "probability": 0.8446601941747572, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy", - "probability": 0.10679611650485436, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Fairfax", - "probability": 0.029126213592233007, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jennifer McClellan", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25145,12 +26522,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25165,52 +26542,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "23 or fewer", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24 or 25", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.027777777777777776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26 or 27", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.16666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28 or 29", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.3055555555555555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or 31", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.21296296296296297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "32 or 33", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.16666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "34 or 35", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.046296296296296294, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "36 or 37", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.027777777777777776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "38 or 39", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40 or more", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25225,12 +26602,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25245,82 +26622,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.4107142857142857, + "probability": 0.43362831858407075, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.39285714285714285, + "probability": 0.38938053097345127, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.03571428571428571, + "probability": 0.026548672566371678, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.02678571428571428, + "probability": 0.017699115044247787, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.017699115044247787, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.017699115044247787, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.017699115044247787, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christian Lindner", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katja Kipping", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Gauland", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernd Riexinger", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25335,37 +26712,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kirk Cox", - "probability": 0.5576923076923076, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Snyder", - "probability": 0.19230769230769232, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Glenn Youngkin", - "probability": 0.13461538461538464, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amanda Chase", - "probability": 0.08653846153846154, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neil Chatterjee", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmett Hanger", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bill Stanley", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25380,12 +26757,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.040000000000000036, + "probability": 0.020000000000000018, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25400,88 +26777,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.23584905660377353, + "probability": 0.24761904761904757, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.14150943396226412, + "probability": 0.14285714285714282, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.09433962264150941, + "probability": 0.09523809523809522, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.09433962264150941, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.06603773584905659, + "probability": 0.09523809523809522, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.05660377358490564, + "probability": 0.05714285714285713, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pence", + "probability": 0.05714285714285713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.037735849056603765, + "probability": 0.038095238095238085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.037735849056603765, + "probability": 0.038095238095238085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.037735849056603765, + "probability": 0.038095238095238085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.037735849056603765, + "probability": 0.038095238095238085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.02830188679245282, + "probability": 0.028571428571428564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.02830188679245282, + "probability": 0.028571428571428564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.02830188679245282, + "probability": 0.028571428571428564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.02830188679245282, + "probability": 0.028571428571428564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.02830188679245282, + "probability": 0.019047619047619042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Larry Hogan", - "probability": 0.018867924528301883, + "probability": 0.019047619047619042, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, Tucker Carlson, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Mike Pompeo, Mitt Romney, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Tucker Carlson, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Mike Pompeo, Mitt Romney, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?", @@ -25495,7 +26872,7 @@ }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -25505,12 +26882,12 @@ }, { "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -25535,37 +26912,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "33 or fewer", - "probability": 0.05714285714285715, + "probability": 0.046296296296296294, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "34 or 35", - "probability": 0.14285714285714288, + "probability": 0.19444444444444442, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "36 or 37", - "probability": 0.2285714285714286, + "probability": 0.25925925925925924, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "38 or 39", - "probability": 0.2285714285714286, + "probability": 0.23148148148148145, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40 or 41", - "probability": 0.20000000000000004, + "probability": 0.17592592592592593, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42 or 43", - "probability": 0.09523809523809526, + "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "44 or more", - "probability": 0.04761904761904763, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25580,22 +26957,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Michelle Wu", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Janey", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Campbell", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Essaibi-George", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jon Santiago", + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -25607,16 +26989,11 @@ "name": "Marty Walsh", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jon Santiago", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Michelle Wu, Kim Janey, Andrea Campbell, A. Essaibi-George, John Barros, Marty Walsh, Jon Santiago" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Michelle Wu, Kim Janey, Andrea Campbell, A. Essaibi-George, Jon Santiago, John Barros, Marty Walsh" }, { "title": "Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?", @@ -25625,12 +27002,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25645,12 +27022,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25665,12 +27042,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25685,12 +27062,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25705,12 +27082,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25725,12 +27102,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25745,12 +27122,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.7549019607843137, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.24509803921568626, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25765,67 +27142,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jane Timken", - "probability": 0.5196078431372549, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.18627450980392157, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "J. D. Vance", - "probability": 0.11764705882352941, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Stivers", - "probability": 0.058823529411764705, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.0392156862745098, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Frank LaRose", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Wenstrup", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Turner", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25840,12 +27217,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25860,12 +27237,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25880,12 +27257,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25900,12 +27277,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25920,12 +27297,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Julia Letlow", - "probability": 0.8909090909090909, + "probability": 0.8999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Candy Christophe", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -25990,7 +27367,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Troy Carter", - "probability": 0.5932203389830507, + "probability": 0.6016949152542371, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -26000,7 +27377,7 @@ }, { "name": "Gary Chambers", - "probability": 0.025423728813559317, + "probability": 0.016949152542372878, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -26075,58 +27452,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lenín Moreno", - "probability": 0.8090909090909091, + "probability": 0.8952380952380952, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Ortega", - "probability": 0.07272727272727272, + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sebastián Piñera", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Iván Duque", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "A. M. López Obrador", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nicolás Maduro", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Francisco Sagasti", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sebastián Piñera", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Iván Duque", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "A. M. López Obrador", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Fernández", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luis Arce", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nicolás Maduro", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lenín Moreno, Daniel Ortega, Jair Bolsonaro, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Nicolás Maduro, Francisco Sagasti, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lenín Moreno, Daniel Ortega, Jair Bolsonaro, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce, Nicolás Maduro" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?", @@ -26135,12 +27512,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5346534653465347, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4653465346534653, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26155,52 +27532,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.41441441441441446, + "probability": 0.4038461538461539, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.22522522522522526, + "probability": 0.2307692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.16216216216216217, + "probability": 0.18269230769230774, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.10810810810810811, + "probability": 0.10576923076923078, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.04504504504504505, + "probability": 0.02884615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.00900900900900901, + "probability": 0.009615384615384618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.00900900900900901, + "probability": 0.009615384615384618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.00900900900900901, + "probability": 0.009615384615384618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.00900900900900901, + "probability": 0.009615384615384618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.00900900900900901, + "probability": 0.009615384615384618, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26215,52 +27592,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Hassan Rouhani", - "probability": 0.48275862068965514, + "probability": 0.4862385321100917, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.21551724137931033, + "probability": 0.25688073394495414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.12068965517241378, + "probability": 0.11926605504587155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.09482758620689655, + "probability": 0.055045871559633024, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Jong-un", - "probability": 0.034482758620689655, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.017241379310344827, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Moon Jae-in", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joko Widodo", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26295,12 +27672,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6310679611650486, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.36893203883495146, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26315,52 +27692,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.24299065420560748, + "probability": 0.3106796116504854, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.14018691588785046, + "probability": 0.1650485436893204, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.14953271028037382, + "probability": 0.1553398058252427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.18691588785046728, + "probability": 0.1650485436893204, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.14953271028037382, + "probability": 0.0970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.07476635514018691, + "probability": 0.0679611650485437, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26375,52 +27752,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.13084112149532712, + "probability": 0.2293577981651376, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 to 53", - "probability": 0.6728971962616822, + "probability": 0.6697247706422018, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54 to 57", - "probability": 0.12149532710280374, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 to 61", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 65", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 to 69", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "70 to 73", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 77", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "78 to 81", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "82 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26440,7 +27817,7 @@ }, { "name": "Tali Weinstein", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -26450,11 +27827,6 @@ }, { "name": "Dan Quart", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cyrus Vance", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -26463,9 +27835,14 @@ "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Cyrus Vance", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Lucy Lang", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -26481,7 +27858,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Alvin Bragg, Tali Weinstein, Tahanie Aboushi, Dan Quart, Cyrus Vance, Eliza Orlins, Lucy Lang, Diana Florence, Liz Crotty" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Alvin Bragg, Tali Weinstein, Tahanie Aboushi, Dan Quart, Eliza Orlins, Cyrus Vance, Lucy Lang, Diana Florence, Liz Crotty" }, { "title": "Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?", @@ -26490,58 +27867,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune", - "probability": 0.42592592592592593, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.13888888888888887, + "probability": 0.3529411764705882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", - "probability": 0.12037037037037036, + "probability": 0.21568627450980393, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", + "probability": 0.16666666666666669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abiy Ahmed", - "probability": 0.12037037037037036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", - "probability": 0.046296296296296294, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", - "probability": 0.046296296296296294, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", - "probability": 0.037037037037037035, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paul Kagame", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Uhuru Kenyatta, Muhammadu Buhari, Abiy Ahmed, Félix Tshisekedi, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Nana Akufo-Addo, Cyril Ramaphosa, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Paul Kagame" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Cyril Ramaphosa, Nana Akufo-Addo, Félix Tshisekedi, Paul Kagame" }, { "title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?", @@ -26550,12 +27927,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26570,62 +27947,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "12 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "13", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "15", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "17", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "19", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.07692307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20", - "probability": 0.029126213592233007, + "probability": 0.21153846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21", - "probability": 0.08737864077669902, + "probability": 0.3557692307692307, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "22", - "probability": 0.2718446601941748, + "probability": 0.2692307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23 or more", - "probability": 0.5339805825242718, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26638,41 +28015,41 @@ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ + { + "name": "Jonathan Kanter", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Renata Hesse", "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Jonathan Kanter", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Terrell McSweeny", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steven Sunshine", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Susan Davies", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Sallet", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dave Gelfand", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Susan Davies", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Deborah Feinstein", "probability": 0.01, @@ -26684,7 +28061,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Dave Gelfand", + "name": "Steven Sunshine", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -26696,7 +28073,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Renata Hesse, Jonathan Kanter, Terrell McSweeny, Steven Sunshine, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Jon Sallet, Deborah Feinstein, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Jon Leibowitz" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Sallet, Dave Gelfand, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Deborah Feinstein, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Steven Sunshine, Jon Leibowitz" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?", @@ -26705,17 +28082,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrés Arauz", - "probability": 0.8095238095238094, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Guillermo Lasso", - "probability": 0.18095238095238095, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yaku Pérez", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26730,52 +28107,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.48672566371681414, + "probability": 0.9166666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 to 52", - "probability": 0.42477876106194684, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53 to 55", - "probability": 0.026548672566371678, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56 to 58", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "59 to 61", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 or more", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26790,58 +28167,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.39814814814814814, + "probability": 0.41904761904761906, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.1111111111111111, + "probability": 0.11428571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Trudeau", - "probability": 0.09259259259259259, + "probability": 0.0857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.08333333333333333, + "probability": 0.0857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.08333333333333333, + "probability": 0.0857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.08333333333333333, + "probability": 0.06666666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.046296296296296294, + "probability": 0.047619047619047616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.046296296296296294, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.047619047619047616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Xi Jinping", + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are \"Xi\" and \"Suga\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro, Vladimir Putin, Cyril Ramaphosa, Xi Jinping, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro, Vladimir Putin, Cyril Ramaphosa, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?", @@ -26850,12 +28227,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tim Ryan", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amy Acton", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -26885,7 +28262,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -26894,29 +28271,29 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Madeleine Dean", + "name": "Conor Lamb", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Conor Lamb", + "name": "Madeleine Dean", "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Joe Sestak", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Jim Kenney", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joe Sestak", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "John Fetterman, Malcolm Kenyatta, Madeleine Dean, Conor Lamb, Joe Sestak, Jim Kenney" + "optionsstringforsearch": "John Fetterman, Malcolm Kenyatta, Conor Lamb, Madeleine Dean, Jim Kenney, Joe Sestak" }, { "title": "How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?", @@ -26925,52 +28302,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "62 or fewer", - "probability": 0.05660377358490567, + "probability": 0.07547169811320754, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 or 64", - "probability": 0.028301886792452834, + "probability": 0.056603773584905655, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 or 66", - "probability": 0.0849056603773585, + "probability": 0.08490566037735849, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "67 or 68", - "probability": 0.14150943396226418, + "probability": 0.20754716981132074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 or 70", - "probability": 0.22641509433962267, + "probability": 0.22641509433962262, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 or 72", - "probability": 0.32075471698113217, + "probability": 0.2830188679245283, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or 74", - "probability": 0.11320754716981134, + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 or 76", - "probability": 0.009433962264150945, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 or 78", - "probability": 0.009433962264150945, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "79 or more", - "probability": 0.009433962264150945, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26984,34 +28361,34 @@ "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ { - "name": "Ryan Costello", - "probability": 0.16, + "name": "Guy Reschenthaler", + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Guy Reschenthaler", + "name": "Ryan Costello", "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Everett Stern", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlie Dent", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Ryan Costello, Guy Reschenthaler, Everett Stern, Donald Trump Jr., Charlie Dent" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Guy Reschenthaler, Ryan Costello, Everett Stern, Donald Trump Jr., Charlie Dent" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?", @@ -27020,12 +28397,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5980392156862745, + "probability": 0.594059405940594, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.40196078431372545, + "probability": 0.4059405940594059, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -27040,12 +28417,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6699029126213591, + "probability": 0.676470588235294, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.3300970873786408, + "probability": 0.3235294117647059, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -27060,12 +28437,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5294117647058824, + "probability": 0.5247524752475248, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.47058823529411764, + "probability": 0.4752475247524752, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -27078,40 +28455,70 @@ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ - { - "name": "Neera Tanden", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Shalanda Young", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gene Sperling", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.49504950495049493, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann O'Leary", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.10891089108910888, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Martha Coven", - "probability": 0.03, + "name": "Gene Sperling", + "probability": 0.08910891089108909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Lu", + "probability": 0.05940594059405939, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sarah Bianchi", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04950495049504949, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nani Coloretti", + "probability": 0.04950495049504949, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jared Bernstein", + "probability": 0.0396039603960396, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Martha Coven", + "probability": 0.029702970297029695, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Heather Boushey", + "probability": 0.029702970297029695, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Jones", + "probability": 0.0198019801980198, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sonal Shah", + "probability": 0.0198019801980198, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Neera Tanden", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Neera Tanden, Shalanda Young, Gene Sperling, Ann O'Leary, Martha Coven, Sarah Bianchi" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Ann O'Leary, Gene Sperling, Chris Lu, Sarah Bianchi, Nani Coloretti, Jared Bernstein, Martha Coven, Heather Boushey, John Jones, Sonal Shah, Neera Tanden" }, { "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Merrick Garland as Attorney General by 3/31?", @@ -27120,52 +28527,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "64 or fewer", - "probability": 0.055045871559633024, + "probability": 0.08910891089108912, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0.08256880733944953, + "probability": 0.07920792079207922, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.1559633027522936, + "probability": 0.16831683168316836, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.19266055045871558, + "probability": 0.21782178217821788, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.2201834862385321, + "probability": 0.20792079207920797, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.1559633027522936, + "probability": 0.11881188118811883, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.09174311926605505, + "probability": 0.07920792079207922, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.027522935779816512, + "probability": 0.019801980198019806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009900990099009903, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 or more", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009900990099009903, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -27180,12 +28587,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -27200,52 +28607,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 1M", - "probability": 0.16216216216216214, + "probability": 0.22999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1M to 1.05M", - "probability": 0.2252252252252252, + "probability": 0.27999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.05M to 1.1M", - "probability": 0.18018018018018017, + "probability": 0.15999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.1M to 1.15M", - "probability": 0.14414414414414414, + "probability": 0.10999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.15M to 1.2M", - "probability": 0.09009009009009009, + "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.2M to 1.25M", - "probability": 0.06306306306306306, + "probability": 0.039999999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.25M to 1.3M", - "probability": 0.05405405405405405, + "probability": 0.039999999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.3M to 1.35M", - "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "probability": 0.029999999999999992, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.35M to 1.4M", - "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "probability": 0.029999999999999992, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.4M or more", - "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "probability": 0.029999999999999992, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -27260,52 +28667,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.17699115044247787, + "probability": 0.3679245283018869, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 or 51", - "probability": 0.20353982300884954, + "probability": 0.04716981132075473, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52 or 53", - "probability": 0.2654867256637168, + "probability": 0.26415094339622647, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54 or 55", - "probability": 0.15929203539823006, + "probability": 0.17924528301886797, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56 or 57", - "probability": 0.08849557522123894, + "probability": 0.07547169811320756, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or 59", - "probability": 0.04424778761061947, + "probability": 0.028301886792452834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60 or 61", - "probability": 0.026548672566371678, + "probability": 0.009433962264150945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 or 63", - "probability": 0.017699115044247787, + "probability": 0.009433962264150945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "64 or 65", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009433962264150945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 or more", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009433962264150945, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -27320,48 +28727,48 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Rob Bonta", - "probability": 0.2869565217391304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Goodwin Liu", - "probability": 0.26086956521739124, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Adam Schiff", - "probability": 0.23478260869565215, + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Goodwin Liu", + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xavier Becerra", - "probability": 0.06956521739130433, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeff Rosen", - "probability": 0.05217391304347825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Diana Becton", - "probability": 0.043478260869565216, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Darrell Steinberg", - "probability": 0.043478260869565216, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rick Chavez Zbur", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Diana Becton", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Darrell Steinberg", + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.\nShould no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Rob Bonta, Goodwin Liu, Adam Schiff, Xavier Becerra, Jeff Rosen, Diana Becton, Darrell Steinberg, Rick Chavez Zbur" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Rob Bonta, Adam Schiff, Goodwin Liu, Xavier Becerra, Jeff Rosen, Rick Chavez Zbur, Diana Becton, Darrell Steinberg" }, { "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?", @@ -27370,52 +28777,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "70 or fewer", - "probability": 0.12380952380952381, + "probability": 0.12820512820512822, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "probability": 0.017094017094017096, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.05714285714285714, + "probability": 0.02564102564102564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.0857142857142857, + "probability": 0.05982905982905984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.09401709401709403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.13333333333333333, + "probability": 0.11111111111111112, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.1619047619047619, + "probability": 0.15384615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.1794871794871795, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 to 94", - "probability": 0.10476190476190476, + "probability": 0.13675213675213677, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "95 or more", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, + "probability": 0.09401709401709403, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -27430,12 +28837,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -27450,12 +28857,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -27470,58 +28877,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.5514018691588785, + "probability": 0.5092592592592592, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrej Babiš", - "probability": 0.11214953271028036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mario Draghi", - "probability": 0.09345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", - "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "probability": 0.12037037037037034, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Rutte", - "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "probability": 0.11111111111111108, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "name": "Mario Draghi", + "probability": 0.0648148148148148, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", + "probability": 0.04629629629629629, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pedro Sánchez", - "probability": 0.037383177570093455, + "probability": 0.04629629629629629, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Boris Johnson", + "probability": 0.03703703703703703, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Viktor Orbán", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.018518518518518514, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.018518518518518514, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Mark Rutte, Boris Johnson, Pedro Sánchez, Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán, Emmanuel Macron" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Mark Rutte, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Pedro Sánchez, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán, Emmanuel Macron" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?", @@ -27530,68 +28937,68 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yonhy Lescano", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Keiko Fujimori", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.45945945945945943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Verónika Mendoza", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.2162162162162162, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "George Forsyth", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Julio Guzmán", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ollanta Humala", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Daniel Urresti", - "probability": 0.02, + "name": "Keiko Fujimori", + "probability": 0.1081081081081081, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.05405405405405405, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "George Forsyth", + "probability": 0.04504504504504504, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Julio Guzmán", + "probability": 0.04504504504504504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hernando de Soto", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.018018018018018018, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Daniel Urresti", + "probability": 0.018018018018018018, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "César Acuña", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Beingolea", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ollanta Humala", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Salaverry", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Keiko Fujimori, Verónika Mendoza, George Forsyth, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Urresti, Rafael López Aliaga, Hernando de Soto, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Daniel Salaverry" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Verónika Mendoza, Keiko Fujimori, Rafael López Aliaga, George Forsyth, Julio Guzmán, Hernando de Soto, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" }, { "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Katherine Tai as USTR by 3/31?", @@ -27600,116 +29007,56 @@ "options": [ { "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.24545454545454545, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.03636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tai be confirmed to position of United States Trade Representative in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "67 or fewer, 68 to 70, 71 to 73, 74 to 76, 77 to 79, 80 to 82, 83 to 85, 86 to 88, 89 to 91, 92 or more" - }, - { - "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Cecilia Rouse as CEA Chair by 3/31?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7147/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Cecilia-Rouse-as-CEA-Chair-by-3-31", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "options": [ - { - "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.027272727272727268, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "74 to 76", "probability": 0.07272727272727272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.10909090909090907, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.14545454545454545, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.1727272727272727, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.1909090909090909, + "probability": 0.11818181818181818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.14545454545454545, + "probability": 0.21818181818181814, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.09999999999999999, + "probability": 0.2727272727272727, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/01/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Cecilia Rouse to the position of Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Rouse to the position of Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Rouse be confirmed to position of Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Rouse to the position of Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/01/2021 8:05 PM (ET)\nNOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE.\nOffers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions.\n", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tai be confirmed to position of United States Trade Representative in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "67 or fewer, 68 to 70, 71 to 73, 74 to 76, 77 to 79, 80 to 82, 83 to 85, 86 to 88, 89 to 91, 92 or more" }, @@ -27720,32 +29067,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Deb Haaland", - "probability": 0.9514563106796116, + "probability": 0.9519230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Udall", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Bullock", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Martin Heinrich", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raúl Grijalva", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carol Moseley-Braun", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -27753,6 +29100,51 @@ "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Deb Haaland, Tom Udall, Steve Bullock, Martin Heinrich, Raúl Grijalva, Carol Moseley-Braun" }, + { + "title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by March 16?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7149/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-March-16", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "11 or 12", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "13 or 14", + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "15 or 16", + "probability": 0.44859813084112143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "17 or 18", + "probability": 0.42990654205607476, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "19 or 20", + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "21 or 22", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "23 or more", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of nominees of the current administration who will have been confirmed to their respective positions in the U.S. Cabinet by the End Date listed below.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –\nThe Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --\nAnd the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --\nAnd the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "11 or 12, 13 or 14, 15 or 16, 17 or 18, 19 or 20, 21 or 22, 23 or more" + }, { "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Isabel Guzman as SBA Administrator by 3/31?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7150/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Isabel-Guzman-as-SBA-Administrator-by-3-31", @@ -27760,52 +29152,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "61 or fewer", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.24778761061946902, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.035398230088495575, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.08849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.12389380530973451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.1327433628318584, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.12389380530973451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.09734513274336282, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.07964601769911503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.035398230088495575, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 or more", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.035398230088495575, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -27814,160 +29206,260 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "61 or fewer, 62 to 64, 65 to 67, 68 to 70, 71 to 73, 74 to 76, 77 to 79, 80 to 82, 83 to 85, 86 or more" }, { - "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary by 3/31?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7152/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary-by-3-31", + "title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Susan Wright", + "probability": 0.5754716981132075, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jana Sanchez", + "probability": 0.20754716981132074, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jake Ellzey", + "probability": 0.14150943396226415, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Brian Harrison", + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Katrina Pierson", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sery Kim", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lydia Bean", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Shawn Lassiter", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Susan Wright, Jana Sanchez, Jake Ellzey, Brian Harrison, Katrina Pierson, Sery Kim, Lydia Bean, Shawn Lassiter" + }, + { + "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Marcia Fudge as HUD Secretary by 3/31?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7153/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marcia-Fudge-as-HUD-Secretary-by-3-31", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ { "name": "61 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.35514018691588783, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.102803738317757, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.14953271028037382, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.12149532710280374, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.12149532710280374, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.08411214953271028, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "probability": 0.037383177570093455, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.3831775700934579, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.48598130841121495, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 or more", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/01/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Gina Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Raimondo be confirmed to position of Secretary of Commerce in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"61 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"86 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/01/2021 8:04 PM (ET)\nNOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE.\nOffers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions.\n", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Rep. Fudge be confirmed to position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"61 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"86 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "61 or fewer, 62 to 64, 65 to 67, 68 to 70, 71 to 73, 74 to 76, 77 to 79, 80 to 82, 83 to 85, 86 or more" }, { - "title": "Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before April 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-april-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "title": "Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021", + "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2647961731013341962204277026633759", + "name": "Lorena González", + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7352038268986658037795722973366241", + "name": "Colleen Echohawk", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lance Randall", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bruce Harrell", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jenny Durkan", + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "530", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lorena González, Colleen Echohawk, Lance Randall, Bruce Harrell, Jenny Durkan" }, { - "title": "Will the US have fewer than 50,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before March 15, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-50-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-march-15-2021-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, with fewer than 50,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. \n\nIn response to trader inquiry: If it can be reasonably construed that the resolution source, the CDC, will publish corrected or otherwise revised COVID-19 case numbers, resolution of this market will consider only those revised numbers. In the event of an initial report which counts case numbers as lower than 50,000 but which is later revised (within 48 hours), only the revised numbers will be considered for the resolution of this market. Accordingly, resolution of this market may be delayed up to 48 hours if revised numbers are expected to be published. Only revisions of case numbers for dates posted by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST will be considered. If case numbers for March 14 are not posted prior to March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST, those numbers will not be considered.\n", + "title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China", + "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8248217287969907822900296261160104", + "name": "Nicholas Burns", + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1751782712030092177099703738839896", + "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Claire McCaskill", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Charlene Barshefsky", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rahm Emanuel", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Shambaugh", + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "3156", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicholas Burns, Dan Kritenbrink, Claire McCaskill, Charlene Barshefsky, Rahm Emanuel, David Shambaugh" }, { - "title": "Will there be more than 120 million confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by April 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-120-million-confirmed-covid-19-cases-globally-by-april-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases there will be globally by April 1, 2021, 11:59 pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are more than 120,000,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally on or before the resolution date. This market will resolve to “No” if there are never more than 120,000,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, globally, as indicated by the World Health Organization’s Coronavirus Disease Dashboard (https://covid19.who.int/).", + "title": "How many Yea votes in the Senate for the American Rescue Plan?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7156/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-Senate-for-the-American-Rescue-Plan", + "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.955244463744624980908175890974739", + "name": "49 or fewer", + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.044755536255375019091824109025261", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "116", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Beeple's \"Everydays: The First 5000 Days\" sell for more than $10 million in its Christie's auction?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-beeple-s-everydays-the-first-5000-days-sell-for-more-than-10-million-in-its-christie-s-auction", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the final sale price for Beeple’s \"Everydays: The First 5000 Days\", currently on auction at Christie's, will be above $10 million. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the final hammer price of the auction is greater than $10 million USD and the sale is confirmed as successful, and “No” otherwise”. The auction is being conducted by Christie's and is scheduled to take place from February 25th to March 11th. In the event the auction is postponed, resolution of this market will be delayed accordingly. If the auction is canceled entirely, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4756028905269645841860727393298424", + "name": "50", + "probability": 0.6857142857142856, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5243971094730354158139272606701576", + "name": "51", + "probability": 0.22857142857142856, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "52", + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "53", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "54", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "55", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "56 or more", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "78", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Senate who, before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of the American Rescue Plan.\nShould more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"56 or more\" shall resolve as Yes. \nAny vote cast by the Vice President shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nVotes taken in committee, or on cloture, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 AM (ET)\n", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "49 or fewer, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56 or more" }, { "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", - "address": "0xB0E171C4e2490b97b3CEbAF36FA4006318A09b25", + "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.8981420109259007694807208401518636", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.1018579890740992305192791598481364", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } ], - "options": [], - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "numforecasts": "707", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", @@ -27977,16 +29469,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01684886180923374564962421237306903", + "probability": "0.01685867038767367760047388337692878", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.983151138190766254350375787626931", + "probability": "0.9831413296123263223995261166230712", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "131", + "numforecasts": "147", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -27998,39 +29490,51 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01827366861209288451922618451176289", + "probability": "0.01229935961587342208440562796589138", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9817263313879071154807738154882371", + "probability": "0.9877006403841265779155943720341086", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "2999", + "numforecasts": "3153", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating is. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4475046001525960934229293478724627", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5524953998474039065770706521275373", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "293", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", + "address": "0x514e63F5CC8a03D4AFcEf8C67770eC733409171D", "description": "This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n \n\n\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.450474706183786588423937890359378", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.549525293816213411576062109640622", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" ], - "numforecasts": "101", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "options": [], + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Who will win UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya?", @@ -28040,16 +29544,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Blachowicz", - "probability": "0.3214151498810068517920317035522269", + "probability": "0.3141779023823181786851128928975841", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Adesanya", - "probability": "0.6785848501189931482079682964477731", + "probability": "0.6858220976176818213148871071024159", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "50", + "numforecasts": "63", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Blachowicz, Adesanya" }, @@ -28061,16 +29565,79 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8583908421501612714245532602067349", + "probability": "0.9131598853165752574627330319140927", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1416091578498387285754467397932651", + "probability": "0.08684011468342474253726696808590727", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "331", + "numforecasts": "455", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.954381801063281075115630095007493", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.04561819893671892488436990499250696", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "553", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.3230737564835660463488157280580725", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.6769262435164339536511842719419275", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "48", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will ETH be above $1500 on March 7th, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1500-on-march-7th-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1500 on March 7th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1500 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4727359486101958848755236771579379", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5272640513898041151244763228420621", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "1509", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -28082,16 +29649,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8139752041979941074048220530797372", + "probability": "0.8492400448475459157544770635792043", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1860247958020058925951779469202628", + "probability": "0.1507599551524540842455229364207957", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "831", + "numforecasts": "865", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1488372587522840622769273238302932", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8511627412477159377230726761697068", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "211", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -28103,32 +29691,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $470 billion", - "probability": 0.036699999999999997, + "probability": 0.0369, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.0975, + "probability": 0.0965, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", - "probability": 0.2225, + "probability": 0.22460000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", - "probability": 0.3613, + "probability": 0.3504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $680 billion", - "probability": 0.2821, + "probability": 0.2915, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "35", - "numforecasters": "35", + "numforecasts": "38", + "numforecasters": "38", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $470 billion, Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive, More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion, More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion, More than $680 billion" }, @@ -28140,17 +29728,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "61", - "numforecasters": "60", + "numforecasts": "64", + "numforecasters": "62", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -28171,8 +29759,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "108", - "numforecasters": "92", + "numforecasts": "111", + "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -28221,32 +29809,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $13 billion", - "probability": 0.031400000000000004, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.1264, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion", - "probability": 0.4833, + "probability": 0.4864, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion", - "probability": 0.281, + "probability": 0.2841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $25 billion", - "probability": 0.07429999999999999, + "probability": 0.0732, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "30", - "numforecasters": "30", + "numforecasts": "31", + "numforecasters": "31", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $13 billion, Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive, More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion, More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion, More than $25 billion" }, @@ -28258,32 +29846,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than -0.25", - "probability": 0.1508, + "probability": 0.1507, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3089, + "probability": 0.30879999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", - "probability": 0.3206, + "probability": 0.32030000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5", - "probability": 0.175, + "probability": 0.1754, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.5", - "probability": 0.0447, + "probability": 0.044800000000000006, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "107", - "numforecasters": "96", + "numforecasts": "108", + "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than -0.25, Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive, More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25, More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5, More than 0.5" }, @@ -28295,32 +29883,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $200 million", - "probability": 0.0538, + "probability": 0.053200000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.218, + "probability": 0.2118, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million", - "probability": 0.3369, + "probability": 0.3479, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million", - "probability": 0.2365, + "probability": 0.2361, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $650 million", - "probability": 0.1547, + "probability": 0.15109999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "88", - "numforecasters": "80", + "numforecasts": "90", + "numforecasters": "82", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive, More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million, More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million, More than $650 million" }, @@ -28332,32 +29920,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $30 million", - "probability": 0.049699999999999994, + "probability": 0.047599999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2959, + "probability": 0.30219999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million", - "probability": 0.3286, + "probability": 0.33030000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million", - "probability": 0.1962, + "probability": 0.19210000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $150 million", - "probability": 0.12960000000000002, + "probability": 0.1278, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "110", - "numforecasters": "103", + "numforecasts": "112", + "numforecasters": "105", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30 million, Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive, More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million, More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million, More than $150 million" }, @@ -28489,7 +30077,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "101", + "numforecasts": "103", "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -28502,22 +30090,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Zero", - "probability": 0.30329999999999996, + "probability": 0.3207, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "One", - "probability": 0.3908, + "probability": 0.38189999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Two or more", - "probability": 0.306, + "probability": 0.2974, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "85", - "numforecasters": "76", + "numforecasts": "87", + "numforecasters": "78", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, One, Two or more" }, @@ -28575,8 +30163,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "240", - "numforecasters": "169", + "numforecasts": "246", + "numforecasters": "171", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -28588,27 +30176,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before February 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.0453, + "probability": 0.044800000000000006, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive", - "probability": 0.11689999999999999, + "probability": 0.1155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.24480000000000002, + "probability": 0.2427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.593, + "probability": 0.597, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "179", - "numforecasters": "120", + "numforecasts": "181", + "numforecasters": "121", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before February 17, 2021, Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive, After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021, After November 17, 2021" }, @@ -28716,32 +30304,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 59%", - "probability": 0.11320000000000001, + "probability": 0.11230000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1728, + "probability": 0.17170000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%", - "probability": 0.2901, + "probability": 0.2876, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%", - "probability": 0.2991, + "probability": 0.3048, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 80%", - "probability": 0.12480000000000001, + "probability": 0.12359999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "239", - "numforecasters": "180", + "numforecasts": "241", + "numforecasters": "182", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 59%, Between 59% and 66%, inclusive, More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%, More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%, More than 80%" }, @@ -28753,32 +30341,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 1.5%", - "probability": 0.06709999999999999, + "probability": 0.0673, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1405, + "probability": 0.14029999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%", - "probability": 0.213, + "probability": 0.21230000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%", - "probability": 0.2667, + "probability": 0.266, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6%", - "probability": 0.3126, + "probability": 0.3141, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "183", - "numforecasters": "133", + "numforecasts": "184", + "numforecasters": "134", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.5%, Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive, More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%, More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%, More than 6%" }, @@ -28790,32 +30378,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 675", - "probability": 0.3593, + "probability": 0.3636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive", - "probability": 0.30260000000000004, + "probability": 0.30820000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825", - "probability": 0.17559999999999998, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900", - "probability": 0.10949999999999999, + "probability": 0.1007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 900", - "probability": 0.053, + "probability": 0.0475, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "96", - "numforecasters": "62", + "numforecasts": "99", + "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 675, Between 675 and 750, inclusive, More than 750 but less than or equal to 825, More than 825 but less than or equal to 900, More than 900" }, @@ -32087,22 +33675,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32137,12 +33725,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 470,000 and 540,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 540,000", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -32153,7 +33741,7 @@ "title": "As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as \"next waves\" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.", + "description": "The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as \"next waves\" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.", "options": [ { "name": "Less than 275,000", @@ -32192,7 +33780,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32202,17 +33790,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -32227,7 +33815,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "The Games will begin", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32237,7 +33825,7 @@ }, { "name": "The Games will be cancelled", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -32291,7 +33879,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32301,7 +33889,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32331,12 +33919,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32356,12 +33944,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 23%", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32381,7 +33969,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lower by more than 8%", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32391,12 +33979,12 @@ }, { "name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32421,12 +34009,12 @@ }, { "name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher by more than 100%", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -32446,7 +34034,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32456,7 +34044,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32481,7 +34069,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32491,32 +34079,285 @@ }, { "name": "More than 30%", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "10% or less, More than 10% but less than 20%, Between 20% and 30%, inclusive, More than 30%" }, + { + "title": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 15,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "95,000 or more", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "6", + "numforecasters": "6", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 15,000, Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive, More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive, More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000, Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive, More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000, Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive, More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000, 95,000 or more" + }, + { + "title": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 100,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "900,000 or more", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "23", + "numforecasters": "20", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 100,000, Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive, More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000, Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive, More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000, Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive, More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive, More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000, 900,000 or more" + }, + { + "title": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 70,000,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000", + "probability": 0.44, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 115,000,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "42", + "numforecasters": "30", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 70,000,000, Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive, More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000, Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive, More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000, Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive, More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000, Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive, More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000, Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive, More than 115,000,000" + }, + { + "title": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 4,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "20,000 or more", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "24", + "numforecasters": "19", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4,000, Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive, More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000, Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive, More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000, Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive, More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000, Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive, More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000, 20,000 or more" + }, { "title": "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the \"Data for all countries\" spreadsheet under the \"Excel file\" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (\"Share of GDP sheet,\" cell BU99).\n", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the \"Data for all countries\" spreadsheet under the \"Excel file\" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (\"Share of GDP sheet,\" cell BU99).\nNOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "62", - "numforecasters": "46", + "numforecasts": "75", + "numforecasters": "54", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -32528,17 +34369,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "29", - "numforecasters": "24", + "numforecasts": "46", + "numforecasters": "30", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -32550,22 +34391,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2 or more", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "32", - "numforecasters": "26", + "numforecasts": "41", + "numforecasters": "30", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2 or more" }, @@ -32577,17 +34418,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "148", - "numforecasters": "131", + "numforecasts": "184", + "numforecasters": "152", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -32599,17 +34440,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 4", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 4 and 8", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 9 and 13", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32619,12 +34460,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 18", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "96", - "numforecasters": "87", + "numforecasts": "112", + "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4, Between 4 and 8, Between 9 and 13, Between 14 and 18, More than 18" }, @@ -32636,17 +34477,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "120", - "numforecasters": "114", + "numforecasts": "145", + "numforecasters": "137", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -32667,8 +34508,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "70", - "numforecasters": "65", + "numforecasts": "83", + "numforecasters": "75", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -32685,27 +34526,27 @@ }, { "name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 14,000,000", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "82", - "numforecasters": "67", + "numforecasts": "95", + "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 8,000,000, Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive, More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000, Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive, More than 14,000,000" }, @@ -32717,7 +34558,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $0.50", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32727,7 +34568,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32741,7 +34582,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "38", + "numforecasts": "43", "numforecasters": "19", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $0.50, Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive, More than $1.00 but less than $2.50, Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive, More than $5.00" @@ -32754,32 +34595,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.4%", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 7.1%", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "82", - "numforecasters": "62", + "numforecasts": "93", + "numforecasters": "70", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.4%, Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive, More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%, Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive, More than 7.1%" }, @@ -32796,7 +34637,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32811,12 +34652,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 2.500", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "59", - "numforecasters": "36", + "numforecasts": "69", + "numforecasters": "38", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.000, Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive, More than 1.500 but less than 2.000, Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive, More than 2.500" }, @@ -32828,12 +34669,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -32842,8 +34683,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "68", - "numforecasters": "39", + "numforecasts": "72", + "numforecasters": "41", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled, Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled, No" }, @@ -32864,8 +34705,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "95", - "numforecasters": "47", + "numforecasts": "120", + "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -32877,22 +34718,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither will occur before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "207", - "numforecasters": "145", + "numforecasts": "247", + "numforecasters": "169", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less, Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more, Neither will occur before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -32904,17 +34745,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "51", - "numforecasters": "39", + "numforecasts": "54", + "numforecasters": "42", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -32935,8 +34776,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "113", - "numforecasters": "67", + "numforecasts": "118", + "numforecasters": "68", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -32948,16 +34789,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "126", + "numforecasts": "138", "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -32979,7 +34820,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "74", + "numforecasts": "75", "numforecasters": "47", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -33001,8 +34842,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "150", - "numforecasters": "99", + "numforecasts": "161", + "numforecasters": "101", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -33023,8 +34864,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "136", - "numforecasters": "114", + "numforecasts": "144", + "numforecasters": "119", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -33055,8 +34896,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "131", - "numforecasters": "101", + "numforecasts": "138", + "numforecasters": "105", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only SpaceX, Yes, only Virgin Galactic, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -33077,8 +34918,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "123", - "numforecasters": "71", + "numforecasts": "130", + "numforecasters": "73", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -33090,7 +34931,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Brooklyn Nets", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -33100,7 +34941,7 @@ }, { "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -33110,7 +34951,7 @@ }, { "name": "Another team", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -33119,8 +34960,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "98", - "numforecasters": "48", + "numforecasts": "102", + "numforecasters": "49", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Another team, There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship" }, @@ -33141,7 +34982,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "122", + "numforecasts": "126", "numforecasters": "80", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -33154,17 +34995,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "89", - "numforecasters": "64", + "numforecasts": "91", + "numforecasters": "65", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -33185,8 +35026,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "215", - "numforecasters": "100", + "numforecasts": "224", + "numforecasters": "101", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -33198,12 +35039,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -33217,8 +35058,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "196", - "numforecasters": "130", + "numforecasts": "207", + "numforecasters": "133", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more" }, @@ -33230,17 +35071,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $200 million", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -33254,8 +35095,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "107", - "numforecasters": "66", + "numforecasts": "113", + "numforecasters": "69", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive, More than $500 million but less than $1 billion, Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive, More than $1.75 billion" }, @@ -33267,17 +35108,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "78", - "numforecasters": "51", + "numforecasts": "82", + "numforecasters": "52", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -33303,7 +35144,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "76", + "numforecasts": "77", "numforecasters": "59", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" @@ -33316,16 +35157,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "157", + "numforecasts": "163", "numforecasters": "78", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -33338,16 +35179,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "120", + "numforecasts": "122", "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -33369,8 +35210,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "191", - "numforecasters": "126", + "numforecasts": "201", + "numforecasters": "129", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -33378,7 +35219,7 @@ "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5f3c333e2d3639363c3e2b3630312c1f3830303b352a3b38323a312b713c3032602c2a3d353a3c2b620e2a3a2c2b3630317a6d6f1c333e2d3639363c3e2b363031). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#284b44495a414e414b495c4147465b684f47474c425d4c4f454d465c064b4745175b5d4a424d4b5c15795d4d5b5c4147460d1a186b44495a414e414b495c414746). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -33391,8 +35232,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "309", - "numforecasters": "182", + "numforecasts": "321", + "numforecasters": "184", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -33414,7 +35255,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -33424,11 +35265,11 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 June 2021", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "280", + "numforecasts": "285", "numforecasters": "68", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021" @@ -33465,8 +35306,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "252", - "numforecasters": "87", + "numforecasts": "271", + "numforecasters": "92", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "7 or fewer, Between 8 and 14, Between 15 and 21, Between 22 and 28, 29 or more" }, @@ -33487,8 +35328,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "138", - "numforecasters": "108", + "numforecasts": "141", + "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -33509,7 +35350,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "206", + "numforecasts": "212", "numforecasters": "137", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -33531,7 +35372,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "76", + "numforecasts": "77", "numforecasters": "48", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -33549,21 +35390,21 @@ }, { "name": "Between 226 seats and 299 seats", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "300 seats or more", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "135", + "numforecasts": "141", "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 226 seats, Between 226 seats and 299 seats, 300 seats or more, Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021" @@ -33590,7 +35431,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "62", + "numforecasts": "65", "numforecasters": "34", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats, Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most, No" @@ -33617,7 +35458,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "144", + "numforecasts": "145", "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021, Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021, Not before 18 September 2021" @@ -33639,7 +35480,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "82", + "numforecasts": "83", "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -33652,17 +35493,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $75 billion", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -33672,11 +35513,11 @@ }, { "name": "More than $150 billion", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "188", + "numforecasts": "193", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion" @@ -33689,16 +35530,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "142", + "numforecasts": "144", "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -33725,7 +35566,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "105", + "numforecasts": "106", "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador, Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador, No" @@ -33747,8 +35588,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "239", - "numforecasters": "128", + "numforecasts": "245", + "numforecasters": "130", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -33760,16 +35601,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "214", + "numforecasts": "223", "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -33791,7 +35632,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "96", + "numforecasts": "98", "numforecasters": "37", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -33813,8 +35654,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "268", - "numforecasters": "166", + "numforecasts": "294", + "numforecasters": "181", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -33840,8 +35681,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "172", - "numforecasters": "64", + "numforecasts": "177", + "numforecasters": "66", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -33853,22 +35694,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No, but the most valuable in the United States", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "181", - "numforecasters": "103", + "numforecasts": "186", + "numforecasters": "105", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the most valuable in the world, No, but the most valuable in the United States, No" }, @@ -33876,11 +35717,11 @@ "title": "Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5a39363b28333c33393b2e333534291a3d35353e302f3e3d373f342e7439353765292f38303f392e670b2f3f292e3335347f686a19363b28333c33393b2e333534). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n", + "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e7848b86958e818e8486938e888994a7808888838d9283808a828993c984888ad89492858d828493dab6928294938e8889c2d5d7a48b86958e818e8486938e8889). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Nicaragua", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -33890,12 +35731,12 @@ }, { "name": "There will be a draw", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "112", - "numforecasters": "79", + "numforecasts": "125", + "numforecasters": "90", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicaragua, St. Lucia, There will be a draw" }, @@ -33912,17 +35753,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -33931,7 +35772,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "225", + "numforecasts": "231", "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.500, Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive, More than 2.000 but less than 2.500, Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive, More than 3.000" @@ -33953,7 +35794,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "205", + "numforecasts": "208", "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -33971,7 +35812,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 March and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -33981,11 +35822,11 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 May 2021", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "45", + "numforecasts": "46", "numforecasters": "19", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021, Not before 1 May 2021" @@ -34012,7 +35853,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "299", + "numforecasts": "304", "numforecasters": "133", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party, Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party, There will not be an election before 1 April 2021" @@ -34052,16 +35893,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "156", + "numforecasts": "158", "numforecasters": "80", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -34083,7 +35924,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "167", + "numforecasts": "168", "numforecasters": "60", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -34096,12 +35937,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -34110,8 +35951,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "427", - "numforecasters": "188", + "numforecasts": "431", + "numforecasters": "189", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022, Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022, No" }, @@ -34142,8 +35983,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "390", - "numforecasters": "207", + "numforecasts": "394", + "numforecasters": "208", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only by the FDA, Yes, only by the EMA, Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA, No" }, @@ -34164,7 +36005,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "259", + "numforecasts": "263", "numforecasters": "145", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -34186,8 +36027,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "332", - "numforecasters": "222", + "numforecasts": "336", + "numforecasters": "224", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -34199,17 +36040,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "259", - "numforecasters": "101", + "numforecasts": "262", + "numforecasters": "102", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -34230,8 +36071,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "380", - "numforecasters": "103", + "numforecasts": "391", + "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -34253,16 +36094,16 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "292", + "numforecasts": "297", "numforecasters": "102", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only Michael Kovrig, Yes, only Michael Spavor, Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, No" @@ -34284,7 +36125,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "228", + "numforecasts": "231", "numforecasters": "123", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -34307,12 +36148,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -34321,7 +36162,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "229", + "numforecasts": "237", "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" @@ -34365,8 +36206,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "357", - "numforecasters": "198", + "numforecasts": "366", + "numforecasters": "202", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -34387,7 +36228,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "98", + "numforecasts": "99", "numforecasters": "59", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -34409,7 +36250,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "69", + "numforecasts": "70", "numforecasters": "31", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -34432,12 +36273,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than $2.50 but less than $3.00", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -34446,7 +36287,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "210", + "numforecasts": "217", "numforecasters": "42", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $2.00, Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive, More than $2.50 but less than $3.00, Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive, More than $3.50" @@ -34459,7 +36300,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only for president", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -34469,7 +36310,7 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, for both president and parliament", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -34478,7 +36319,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "108", + "numforecasts": "111", "numforecasters": "29", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only for president, Yes, only for parliament, Yes, for both president and parliament, No" @@ -34500,8 +36341,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "355", - "numforecasters": "172", + "numforecasts": "371", + "numforecasters": "177", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -34523,7 +36364,7 @@ }, { "name": "A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -34533,7 +36374,7 @@ }, { "name": "Another candidate", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -34542,7 +36383,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "159", + "numforecasts": "163", "numforecasters": "78", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action), A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress), A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force), A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party), Another candidate, There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021" @@ -34555,16 +36396,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "489", + "numforecasts": "505", "numforecasters": "196", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -34601,7 +36442,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "494", + "numforecasts": "501", "numforecasters": "245", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive, More than 8.0%" @@ -34629,17 +36470,17 @@ }, { "name": "3", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or more", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1322", - "numforecasters": "404", + "numforecasts": "1378", + "numforecasters": "427", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more" }, @@ -34656,7 +36497,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -34666,12 +36507,12 @@ }, { "name": "350,000 or more", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "484", - "numforecasters": "210", + "numforecasts": "489", + "numforecasters": "211", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, 350,000 or more" }, @@ -34714,8 +36555,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "454", - "numforecasters": "202", + "numforecasts": "470", + "numforecasters": "212", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -34749,17 +36590,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "297", - "numforecasters": "183", + "numforecasts": "306", + "numforecasters": "185", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -34771,16 +36612,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "279", + "numforecasts": "282", "numforecasters": "162", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -34808,16 +36649,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "273", + "numforecasts": "276", "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" @@ -34844,8 +36685,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "159", - "numforecasters": "94", + "numforecasts": "166", + "numforecasters": "98", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" }, @@ -34866,7 +36707,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "211", + "numforecasts": "214", "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -34879,17 +36720,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "296", - "numforecasters": "157", + "numforecasts": "301", + "numforecasters": "159", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -34910,7 +36751,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "256", + "numforecasts": "259", "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -34938,17 +36779,17 @@ }, { "name": "7 or 8", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "9 or more", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1284", - "numforecasters": "194", + "numforecasts": "1310", + "numforecasters": "196", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "3, 4, 5 or 6, 7 or 8, 9 or more" }, @@ -34969,8 +36810,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "272", - "numforecasters": "61", + "numforecasts": "277", + "numforecasters": "62", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -34991,7 +36832,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "193", + "numforecasts": "195", "numforecasters": "62", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -35041,16 +36882,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "124", + "numforecasts": "127", "numforecasters": "54", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -35078,17 +36919,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 June 2021", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "489", - "numforecasters": "148", + "numforecasts": "497", + "numforecasters": "149", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021" }, @@ -35100,17 +36941,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "663", - "numforecasters": "153", + "numforecasts": "682", + "numforecasters": "154", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -35122,7 +36963,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.00%", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -35132,12 +36973,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -35146,8 +36987,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "329", - "numforecasters": "118", + "numforecasts": "343", + "numforecasters": "127", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.00%, Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive, More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%, Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive, More than 8.00%" }, @@ -35183,7 +37024,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "437", + "numforecasts": "441", "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0 million, Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive, More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million" @@ -35206,16 +37047,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 April 2021", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "416", + "numforecasts": "421", "numforecasters": "65", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021" @@ -35237,8 +37078,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "206", - "numforecasters": "64", + "numforecasts": "207", + "numforecasters": "65", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -35259,7 +37100,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "389", + "numforecasts": "393", "numforecasters": "159", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -35306,7 +37147,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "295", + "numforecasts": "296", "numforecasters": "111", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Another country, There will not be a 2020-21 final winner" @@ -35343,7 +37184,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "653", + "numforecasts": "661", "numforecasters": "199", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 19 October 2020, Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021, Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021, Not before 24 May 2021" @@ -35365,7 +37206,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1089", + "numforecasts": "1093", "numforecasters": "448", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -35387,7 +37228,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "362", + "numforecasts": "368", "numforecasters": "159", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -35409,8 +37250,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "312", - "numforecasters": "150", + "numforecasts": "316", + "numforecasters": "152", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -35422,17 +37263,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "656", - "numforecasters": "162", + "numforecasts": "676", + "numforecasters": "164", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -35459,17 +37300,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 October 2021", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "777", - "numforecasters": "164", + "numforecasts": "784", + "numforecasters": "165", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021" }, @@ -35481,16 +37322,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "199", + "numforecasts": "201", "numforecasters": "77", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -35512,7 +37353,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "314", + "numforecasts": "316", "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -35534,8 +37375,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "587", - "numforecasters": "180", + "numforecasts": "598", + "numforecasters": "181", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -35603,8 +37444,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "219", - "numforecasters": "51", + "numforecasts": "226", + "numforecasters": "53", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 October 2020, Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021" }, @@ -35640,7 +37481,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "351", + "numforecasts": "354", "numforecasters": "116", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive, More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000, Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000" @@ -35672,7 +37513,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "270", + "numforecasts": "273", "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service, Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package, Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service, No" @@ -35732,17 +37573,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "662", - "numforecasters": "169", + "numforecasts": "687", + "numforecasters": "183", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -35750,7 +37591,7 @@ "title": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#086b64697a616e616b697c6167667b486f67676c627d6c6f656d667c266b6765377b7d6a626d6b7c35597d6d7b7c6167662d3a384b64697a616e616b697c616766). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#83e0efe2f1eae5eae0e2f7eaecedf0c3e4ecece7e9f6e7e4eee6edf7ade0eceebcf0f6e1e9e6e0f7bed2f6e6f0f7eaeceda6b1b3c0efe2f1eae5eae0e2f7eaeced). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -35763,8 +37604,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "283", - "numforecasters": "136", + "numforecasts": "286", + "numforecasters": "137", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -35772,7 +37613,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#f5969994879c939c9694819c9a9b86b5929a9a919f80919298909b81db969a98ca8680979f909681c8a4809086819c9a9bd0c7c5b69994879c939c9694819c9a9b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#2d4e414c5f444b444e4c594442435e6d4a4242494758494a40484359034e4240125e584f47484e59107c58485e59444243081f1d6e414c5f444b444e4c59444243). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -35785,7 +37626,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "601", + "numforecasts": "608", "numforecasters": "142", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -35803,7 +37644,7 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, a paid backup driver", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -35813,12 +37654,12 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "235", - "numforecasters": "92", + "numforecasts": "236", + "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, a firm, Yes, a paid backup driver, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -35854,7 +37695,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "238", + "numforecasts": "239", "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 2.2 million, Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive, More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million, Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive, More than 4.0 million" @@ -35891,7 +37732,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "226", + "numforecasts": "227", "numforecasters": "46", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 5,300, Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive, More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100, Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive, More than 6,500" @@ -35900,7 +37741,7 @@ "title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0e6d626f7c6768676d6f7a6761607d4e6961616a647b6a69636b607a206d6163317d7b6c646b6d7a335f7b6b7d7a6761602b3c3e4d626f7c6768676d6f7a676160). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#56353a37243f303f3537223f39382516313939323c2332313b3338227835393b692523343c3335226b07233325223f3938736466153a37243f303f3537223f3938). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 2.5 million", @@ -35928,8 +37769,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1100", - "numforecasters": "146", + "numforecasts": "1121", + "numforecasters": "155", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 2.5 million, Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive, More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million, Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive, More than 20.0 million" }, @@ -35937,7 +37778,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#4d2e212c3f242b242e2c392422233e0d2a2222292738292a20282339632e2220723e382f27282e39701c38283e39242223687f7d0e212c3f242b242e2c39242223). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#96f5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8e5d6f1f9f9f2fce3f2f1fbf3f8e2b8f5f9fba9e5e3f4fcf3f5e2abc7e3f3e5e2fff9f8b3a4a6d5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, the Olympics only", @@ -35946,22 +37787,22 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, the Paralympics only", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1557", - "numforecasters": "560", + "numforecasts": "1650", + "numforecasters": "612", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the Olympics only, Yes, the Paralympics only, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -35969,7 +37810,7 @@ "title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#60030c0112090609030114090f0e1320070f0f040a1504070d050e144e030f0d5f1315020a0503145d3115051314090f0e455250230c0112090609030114090f0e). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#67040b06150e010e0406130e08091427000808030d1203000a0209134904080a581412050d0204135a36120214130e0809425557240b06150e010e0406130e0809). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -35982,7 +37823,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "233", + "numforecasts": "234", "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -35991,7 +37832,7 @@ "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#dab9b6bba8b3bcb3b9bbaeb3b5b4a99abdb5b5beb0afbebdb7bfb4aef4b9b5b7e5a9afb8b0bfb9aee78bafbfa9aeb3b5b4ffe8ea99b6bba8b3bcb3b9bbaeb3b5b4). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#31525d5043585758525045585e5f4271565e5e555b4455565c545f451f525e5c0e4244535b5452450c6044544245585e5f140301725d5043585758525045585e5f). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -36004,8 +37845,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "989", - "numforecasters": "435", + "numforecasts": "1004", + "numforecasters": "444", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -36041,7 +37882,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "283", + "numforecasts": "284", "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive, More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000, Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive, More than 2,200,000" @@ -36069,16 +37910,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 40,000", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "273", + "numforecasts": "274", "numforecasters": "73", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive, More than 30,000 but less than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive, More than 40,000" @@ -36087,7 +37928,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b3d0dfd2c1dad5dad0d2c7dadcddc0f3d4dcdcd7d9c6d7d4ded6ddc79dd0dcde8cc0c6d1d9d6d0c78ee2c6d6c0c7dadcdd968183f0dfd2c1dad5dad0d2c7dadcdd). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#3f5c535e4d5659565c5e4b5650514c7f5850505b554a5b58525a514b115c5052004c4a5d555a5c4b026e4a5a4c4b5650511a0d0f7c535e4d5659565c5e4b565051). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "0", @@ -36110,8 +37951,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "381", - "numforecasters": "215", + "numforecasts": "382", + "numforecasters": "216", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more" }, @@ -36155,12 +37996,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -36169,7 +38010,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "264", + "numforecasts": "267", "numforecasters": "95", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $80 per kWh, Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive, More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh, Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive, More than $140 per kWh" @@ -36187,17 +38028,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -36206,7 +38047,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "404", + "numforecasts": "409", "numforecasters": "146", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.5%, Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%, Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive, More than 8.5%" @@ -36228,7 +38069,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "260", + "numforecasts": "261", "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -36275,26 +38116,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?", - "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de", - "platform": "Omen", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05619249869291097, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.943807501307089, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "", - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ", "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c", @@ -36355,46 +38176,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021?", - "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2", - "platform": "Omen", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "", - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?", - "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632", - "platform": "Omen", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08089382091153287, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9191061790884671, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "", - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA", @@ -36402,12 +38183,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9702970297029703, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -36482,57 +38263,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pierre de Villiers", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.14814814814814814, + "probability": 0.1346153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.5555555555555556, + "probability": 0.5673076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Piolle", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another woman", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.05769230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another man", - "probability": 0.14814814814814814, + "probability": 0.1346153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -36547,22 +38328,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Macron and Le Pen", - "probability": 0.619047619047619, + "probability": 0.6132075471698113, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen", - "probability": 0.15238095238095237, + "probability": 0.1509433962264151, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.1981132075471698, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither of them", - "probability": 0.028571428571428567, + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -36577,12 +38358,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9423076923076923, + "probability": 0.9393939393939396, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.05769230769230769, + "probability": 0.06060606060606061, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -36597,17 +38378,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)", - "probability": 0.9405940594059407, + "probability": 0.9134615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Later in 2021", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.04807692307692307, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not in 2021", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -36632,37 +38413,37 @@ }, { "name": "February 2021", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "March 2021", - "probability": 0.06862745098039215, + "probability": 0.0425531914893617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "April 2021", - "probability": 0.14705882352941177, + "probability": 0.1595744680851064, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "May 2021", - "probability": 0.28431372549019607, + "probability": 0.22340425531914893, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "June 2021", - "probability": 0.28431372549019607, + "probability": 0.35106382978723405, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe after June 2021", - "probability": 0.20588235294117646, + "probability": 0.22340425531914893, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -36695,6 +38476,26 @@ "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "France, Japan, Same medals count" }, + { + "title": "Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.93, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "To be considered \"deadly\", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", @@ -36702,22 +38503,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani", - "probability": 0.29523809523809524, + "probability": 0.2818181818181818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdelilah Benkirane", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, + "probability": 0.07272727272727272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else from PJD", - "probability": 0.047619047619047616, + "probability": 0.04545454545454545, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else not from PJD", - "probability": 0.580952380952381, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -36750,36 +38551,6 @@ "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "> 148 (more than currently), 128 (absolute majority) to 148 , < 128" }, - { - "title": "In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Mohamed Bazoum", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mahamane Ousmane", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No official winner in 2021", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The second round of the presidential election is scheduled on February 21, 2021.", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Mohamed Bazoum, Mahamane Ousmane, Someone else, No official winner in 2021" - }, { "title": "In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", @@ -36807,12 +38578,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.08080808080808081, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.9191919191919193, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -36827,27 +38598,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Denis Sassou Nguesso", - "probability": 0.9423076923076923, + "probability": 0.9428571428571427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mathias Dzon", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No election in 2021", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -36902,27 +38673,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed", - "probability": 0.8839285714285715, + "probability": 0.8333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abshir Aden Ferro", - "probability": 0.08928571428571429, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sharif Sheikh Ahmed", - "probability": 0.00892857142857143, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.00892857142857143, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No election in 2021", - "probability": 0.00892857142857143, + "probability": 0.1372549019607843, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -36937,27 +38708,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.008695652173913044, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.1485148514851485, + "probability": 0.1565217391304348, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.24752475247524752, + "probability": 0.3217391304347826, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.13861386138613863, + "probability": 0.1217391304347826, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.4554455445544554, + "probability": 0.391304347826087, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -36997,17 +38768,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Worse than the 2012 record", - "probability": 0.3627450980392157, + "probability": 0.28712871287128716, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012", - "probability": 0.2745098039215686, + "probability": 0.26732673267326734, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not worse than 2020", - "probability": 0.3627450980392157, + "probability": 0.44554455445544555, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -37022,32 +38793,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)", - "probability": 0.08823529411764705, + "probability": 0.1485148514851485, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)", - "probability": 0.8725490196078431, + "probability": 0.8019801980198019, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another member of CDU/CSU", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A member of SPD", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A member of the Green party", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -37062,7 +38833,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "in Q1, 2021", - "probability": 0.0849056603773585, + "probability": 0.10377358490566038, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37072,17 +38843,17 @@ }, { "name": "in Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.09433962264150944, + "probability": 0.12264150943396226, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.16037735849056603, + "probability": 0.1509433962264151, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Perhaps later", - "probability": 0.330188679245283, + "probability": 0.2924528301886793, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -37097,22 +38868,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.06862745098039215, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.46078431372549017, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.3431372549019608, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.12745098039215685, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -37127,7 +38898,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37137,12 +38908,12 @@ }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -37162,12 +38933,12 @@ }, { "name": "Q1, 2021", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.030612244897959186, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.9693877551020408, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -37176,79 +38947,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "In 2020, Q1, 2021, Maybe later" }, { - "title": "Which threshold will gold prices (per ounce) reach first? ", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO", + "title": "In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=POL", "platform": "Hypermind", "options": [ { - "name": ">= 2,200 USD", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "<= 1,700 USD", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ).Follow godlier prices here: [https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/](https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/)", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": ">= 2,200 USD, <= 1,700 USD" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the closing share price of GameStop (GME) on Feb. 26, 2021?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "options": [ - { - "name": "≥ $400", + "name": "Mohamed Bazoum", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "[$300, $400[", + "name": "Mahamane Ousmane", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "[$200, $300[", + "name": "Someone else", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "[$100, $200[", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "[$0, $100[", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "[$75, $100[", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "[$50, $75[", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "[$25, $50[", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "[$0, $25[", + "name": "No official winner in 2021", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Follow GameStop's stock price here: [https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME)", + "description": "The second round of the presidential election is scheduled on February 21, 2021.", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "≥ $400, [$300, $400[, [$200, $300[, [$100, $200[, [$0, $100[, [$75, $100[, [$50, $75[, [$25, $50[, [$0, $25[" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Mohamed Bazoum, Mahamane Ousmane, Someone else, No official winner in 2021" }, { "title": "Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?", @@ -37277,12 +39003,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "≥ 6,000", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "≤ 5,000", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -37317,12 +39043,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.8285714285714285, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17142857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -37430,27 +39156,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sajid Javid", - "probability": 0.03793477189870924, + "probability": 0.03746229444390386, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rory Stewart", - "probability": 0.0009853187506158245, + "probability": 0.0009730466089325679, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", - "probability": 0.025913883141196182, + "probability": 0.025591125814926532, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Penny Mordaunt", - "probability": 0.027391861267119916, + "probability": 0.027050695728325382, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeremy Hunt", - "probability": 0.10946891319341809, + "probability": 0.10810547825240828, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37460,22 +39186,22 @@ }, { "name": "Dominic Raab", - "probability": 0.06572076066607549, + "probability": 0.06490220881580228, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Tugendhat", - "probability": 0.06355305941472067, + "probability": 0.06276150627615062, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.0533057444083161, + "probability": 0.05264182154325192, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amber Rudd", - "probability": 0.005517785003448617, + "probability": 0.00544906101002238, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37485,27 +39211,27 @@ }, { "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.08207705192629818, + "probability": 0.0810547825240829, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matthew Hancock", - "probability": 0.0533057444083161, + "probability": 0.05264182154325192, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Truss", - "probability": 0.03941275002463298, + "probability": 0.07482728422691447, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gavin Williamson", - "probability": 0.03941275002463298, + "probability": 0.03892186435730271, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Leadsom", - "probability": 0.014090058133806288, + "probability": 0.013914566507735718, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37520,17 +39246,17 @@ }, { "name": "Steve Baker", - "probability": 0.030741945019213724, + "probability": 0.030359054198696115, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ruth Davidson", - "probability": 0.02345058626465662, + "probability": 0.023158509292595112, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Esther McVey", - "probability": 0.009853187506158245, + "probability": 0.009730466089325677, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37540,7 +39266,7 @@ }, { "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.31786382894866494, + "probability": 0.2904544127663715, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -37575,27 +39301,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.005865359362689312, + "probability": 0.00588493631971893, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.018996760920948964, + "probability": 0.019060166886253845, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.05646502670051651, + "probability": 0.05665349143610014, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.3709183226823076, + "probability": 0.3721563460693896, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.06486912369780269, + "probability": 0.06508563899868249, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37615,7 +39341,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.03501707082202574, + "probability": 0.03513394817742645, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37650,7 +39376,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ursula Von der Leyen", - "probability": 0.027313315241180077, + "probability": 0.027404479578392628, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37665,17 +39391,17 @@ }, { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.38396218156351225, + "probability": 0.38190601668862545, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.033703930666199776, + "probability": 0.03381642512077295, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.0028889083428171236, + "probability": 0.0028985507246376816, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37768,21 +39494,21 @@ "platform": "Smarkets", "options": [ { - "probability": 0.009962143853357242, + "probability": 0.01002004008016032, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "probability": 0.00009962143853357243, + "probability": 0.0001002004008016032, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.10828850368599323, + "probability": 0.08717434869739478, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022 or later", - "probability": 0.881649731022116, + "probability": 0.9027054108216434, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -37817,32 +39543,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jeremy Corbyn", - "probability": 0.015382248884786958, + "probability": 0.014930944382232178, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nigel Farage", - "probability": 0.008075680664513153, + "probability": 0.007838745800671893, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jo Swinson", - "probability": 0.0915243808644824, + "probability": 0.08883911907428146, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keir Starmer", - "probability": 0.16720504537763423, + "probability": 0.1588652482269504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", - "probability": 0.010998307952622674, + "probability": 0.010675625233296007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sajid Javid", - "probability": 0.025611444393170285, + "probability": 0.024860022396416576, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37852,7 +39578,7 @@ }, { "name": "Dominic Raab", - "probability": 0.04276265189970774, + "probability": 0.04150802538260545, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37862,17 +39588,17 @@ }, { "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", - "probability": 0.025611444393170285, + "probability": 0.024860022396416576, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rory Stewart", - "probability": 0.01668974003999385, + "probability": 0.01620007465472191, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amber Rudd", - "probability": 0.022611905860636827, + "probability": 0.021948488241881302, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37887,7 +39613,7 @@ }, { "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.059144746962005855, + "probability": 0.05740948114968272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37897,17 +39623,17 @@ }, { "name": "Ruth Davidson", - "probability": 0.02138132594985387, + "probability": 0.020754012691302726, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Watson", - "probability": 0.01668974003999385, + "probability": 0.01620007465472191, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yvette Cooper", - "probability": 0.029610829103214893, + "probability": 0.028742067935796943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37927,7 +39653,7 @@ }, { "name": "Jeremy Hunt", - "probability": 0.06991232118135672, + "probability": 0.06786114221724525, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37937,17 +39663,17 @@ }, { "name": "Lisa Nandy", - "probability": 0.0384556222119674, + "probability": 0.037327360955580445, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Truss", - "probability": 0.03660975234579296, + "probability": 0.03553564762971258, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.03660975234579296, + "probability": 0.03553564762971258, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -37957,22 +39683,22 @@ }, { "name": "Ken Clarke", - "probability": 0.04660821412090448, + "probability": 0.04524076147816349, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Harriet Harman", - "probability": 0.007691124442393479, + "probability": 0.007465472191116089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Margaret Beckett", - "probability": 0.05699123211813568, + "probability": 0.055319148936170216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.1538224888478696, + "probability": 0.1820828667413214, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -38012,27 +39738,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2020", - "probability": 0.04608719697667988, + "probability": 0.04392129304286718, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.06581251728269887, + "probability": 0.06271960646521434, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022", - "probability": 0.09217439395335976, + "probability": 0.08784258608573436, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2023", - "probability": 0.16462346760070054, + "probability": 0.18692902319044274, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024 or later", - "probability": 0.6313024241865609, + "probability": 0.6185874912157414, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38046,7 +39772,6 @@ "platform": "Smarkets", "options": [ { - "name": "2020", "probability": 0.07764344119085889, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -38078,7 +39803,7 @@ ], "description": "", "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 or later" + "optionsstringforsearch": ", 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 or later" }, { "title": "Next Cabinet Member to leave", @@ -38087,12 +39812,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.07564130673098006, + "probability": 0.043574075929079435, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.05481254110940583, + "probability": 0.05008514474606832, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -38102,37 +39827,37 @@ }, { "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.04768691076518307, + "probability": 0.07152158669738556, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.1043630782723087, + "probability": 0.09536211559651409, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Buckland", - "probability": 0.08770006577504934, + "probability": 0.08013623159370932, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ben Wallace", - "probability": 0.13045384784038588, + "probability": 0.11920264449564262, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matt Hancock", - "probability": 0.06851567638675729, + "probability": 0.13182410097165184, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alok Sharma", - "probability": 0.07827230870423152, + "probability": 0.07703095261945309, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Elizabeth Truss", - "probability": 0.05930716948037711, + "probability": 0.05419212661524593, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -38142,7 +39867,7 @@ }, { "name": "Gavin Williamson", - "probability": 0.16125849594387198, + "probability": 0.15646599218671745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -38152,7 +39877,7 @@ }, { "name": "Robert Jenrick", - "probability": 0.08430168822626617, + "probability": 0.07703095261945309, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -38187,7 +39912,7 @@ }, { "name": "Amanda Milling", - "probability": 0.04768691076518307, + "probability": 0.043574075929079435, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38202,17 +39927,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.4190312410432789, + "probability": 0.4026069395997797, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.527849431546766, + "probability": 0.5463557921791813, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.05311932740995509, + "probability": 0.0510372682210391, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38227,12 +39952,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25555450505814503, + "probability": 0.31289404108196056, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.744445494941855, + "probability": 0.6871059589180395, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38277,22 +40002,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.8492647058823529, + "probability": 0.851190476190476, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.10473227752639516, + "probability": 0.10270219198790626, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.032522624434389136, + "probability": 0.03259637188208617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.013480392156862742, + "probability": 0.013510959939531365, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38429,177 +40154,198 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Rayner", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.241490404818602, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lisa Nandy", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.10379604986692814, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.10771816781061774, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.038941028155203804, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anneliese Dodds", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.07185880375402717, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rosena Allin-Khan", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.07003782042302843, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andy Burnham", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.14595881776159125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yvette Cooper", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.06093290376803474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Clive Lewis", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.07367978708502591, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John McDonnell", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.038941028155203804, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ian Lavery", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Jarvis", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emily Thornberry", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nick Thomas-Symonds", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sam Tarry", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Louise Haigh", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Burgon", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dawn Butler", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Carden", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jess Phillips", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Lammy", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Trickett", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Barry Gardiner", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Seema Malhotra", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.04664518840173694, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jonathan Ashworth", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ed Miliband", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hilary Benn", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stella Creasy", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rachel Reeves", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laura Pidcock", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlotte Nichols", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kate Osborne", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Margaret Greenwood", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zarah Sultana", - "probability": null + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Wes Streeting", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim McMahon", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alison McGovern", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bridget Phillipson", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?\r\n\r\nOther candidates available on request.", "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy, Sadiq Khan, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Anneliese Dodds, Rosena Allin-Khan, Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper, Clive Lewis, John McDonnell, Ian Lavery, Dan Jarvis, Emily Thornberry, Nick Thomas-Symonds, Sam Tarry, Louise Haigh, Richard Burgon, Dawn Butler, Dan Carden, Jess Phillips, David Lammy, Jon Trickett, Barry Gardiner, Seema Malhotra, Jonathan Ashworth, Ed Miliband, Hilary Benn, Stella Creasy, Rachel Reeves, Laura Pidcock, Charlotte Nichols, Kate Osborne, Margaret Greenwood, Zarah Sultana" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy, Sadiq Khan, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Anneliese Dodds, Rosena Allin-Khan, Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper, Clive Lewis, John McDonnell, Ian Lavery, Dan Jarvis, Emily Thornberry, Nick Thomas-Symonds, Sam Tarry, Louise Haigh, Richard Burgon, Dawn Butler, Dan Carden, Jess Phillips, David Lammy, Jon Trickett, Barry Gardiner, Seema Malhotra, Jonathan Ashworth, Ed Miliband, Hilary Benn, Stella Creasy, Rachel Reeves, Laura Pidcock, Charlotte Nichols, Kate Osborne, Margaret Greenwood, Zarah Sultana, Wes Streeting, Jim McMahon, Alison McGovern, Bridget Phillipson" }, { "title": "Gender of the next Labour leader", @@ -38653,12 +40399,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Dominic Raab", - "probability": 0.40996613449443636, + "probability": 0.4085036637099884, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matt Hancock", - "probability": 0.5900338655055636, + "probability": 0.5914963362900116, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38673,17 +40419,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2023 or earlier", - "probability": 0.25863145686501915, + "probability": 0.3862793572311496, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024", - "probability": 0.3431171380140958, + "probability": 0.2971260815822003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2025 or later", - "probability": 0.39825140512088497, + "probability": 0.3165945611866502, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38698,38 +40444,42 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.9260800634165673, + "probability": 0.9397138628515046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.0215021799445105, + "probability": 0.024666995559940796, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.00009908838684106222, + "probability": 0.0000986679822397632, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Siobhan Benita", - "probability": 0.00009908838684106222, + "probability": 0.0000986679822397632, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.05212049147839872, + "probability": 0.035224469659595456, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.00009908838684106222, + "probability": 0.0000986679822397632, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Luisa Porritt", + "probability": 0.0000986679822397632, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.", "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Sadiq Khan, Shaun Bailey, Siân Berry, Siobhan Benita, Brian Rose, Mandu Reid" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Sadiq Khan, Shaun Bailey, Siân Berry, , Brian Rose, Mandu Reid, Luisa Porritt" }, { "title": "Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round", @@ -38738,12 +40488,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29048731931100147, + "probability": 0.22508980903762524, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7095126806889985, + "probability": 0.7749101909623747, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38758,12 +40508,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andy Street", - "probability": 0.6161293542269688, + "probability": 0.6451702186548575, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liam Byrne", - "probability": 0.38387064577303126, + "probability": 0.3548297813451425, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -38788,12 +40538,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Ben Houchen", - "probability": 0.724179585262734, + "probability": 0.7338323353293413, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jessie Joe Jacobs", - "probability": 0.27582041473726593, + "probability": 0.26616766467065867, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38808,22 +40558,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.9096499526963103, + "probability": 0.9126792031279092, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.02052980132450331, + "probability": 0.016942841184137032, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.017218543046357615, + "probability": 0.01861850679575498, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.05260170293282876, + "probability": 0.05175944889219884, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38838,22 +40588,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5717348426378527, + "probability": 0.5910243407707911, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.3199554069119287, + "probability": 0.26411426639621366, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.08575593859874796, + "probability": 0.08451656524678837, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.022553811851470713, + "probability": 0.06034482758620689, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38868,12 +40618,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5961538461538461, + "probability": 0.5753522382735866, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.40384615384615385, + "probability": 0.42464776172641344, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39123,12 +40873,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06568897036358082, + "probability": 0.036243302867948315, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9343110296364192, + "probability": 0.9637566971320517, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39143,12 +40893,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16320736244370473, + "probability": 0.13811678517560871, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8367926375562953, + "probability": 0.8618832148243913, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39163,12 +40913,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12472560367192177, + "probability": 0.16540927951716333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8752743963280782, + "probability": 0.8345907204828368, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39298,12 +41048,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8309732748304747, + "probability": 0.7590129169076537, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16902672516952533, + "probability": 0.24098708309234626, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39388,12 +41138,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5526118000751598, + "probability": 0.5408351990655116, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44738819992484025, + "probability": 0.45916480093448847, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39508,52 +41258,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.2906196048340687, + "probability": 0.3150432440096413, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.03203529637444849, + "probability": 0.02367786757408195, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.045655093036639165, + "probability": 0.03374450588402098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.06618070209092652, + "probability": 0.0708918190840777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.04162670247458277, + "probability": 0.03076704948248972, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.07999232687511988, + "probability": 0.059123777116120796, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.2085171686169192, + "probability": 0.16489437118956474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.03203529637444849, + "probability": 0.02835672763363108, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.08344523307116822, + "probability": 0.06167588260314759, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ivanka Trump", - "probability": 0.11989257625167848, + "probability": 0.08861477385509713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -39583,18 +41333,23 @@ }, { "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01417836381681554, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ron DeSantis", + "probability": 0.1090316177513115, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.", "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Tom Cotton, Mike Pence, Tucker Carlson, Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Ivanka Trump, Mike Pompeo, Dan Crenshaw, Chris Christie, Eric Trump, Larry Hogan, Rick Scott, Tim Scott" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Tom Cotton, Mike Pence, Tucker Carlson, Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Ivanka Trump, Mike Pompeo, Dan Crenshaw, Chris Christie, Eric Trump, Larry Hogan, Rick Scott, Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis" }, { "title": "2024 US presidential winner", @@ -39603,47 +41358,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.16298709132585354, + "probability": 0.15578874538745385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.24128362890577873, + "probability": 0.22613007380073796, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.13403305585716008, + "probability": 0.15175276752767525, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.027385691880805887, + "probability": 0.026176199261992616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.012064181445288938, + "probability": 0.011531365313653135, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.04825672578115575, + "probability": 0.04439575645756457, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.07093738689829895, + "probability": 0.06780442804428043, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.024128362890577876, + "probability": 0.020987084870848705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.08046809024007721, + "probability": 0.07691420664206641, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -39653,7 +41408,7 @@ }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.07781397032211365, + "probability": 0.07437730627306272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -39683,7 +41438,7 @@ }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.06032090722644468, + "probability": 0.05765682656826567, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -39703,7 +41458,7 @@ }, { "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.028828413284132836, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -39723,7 +41478,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ivanka Trump", - "probability": 0.06032090722644468, + "probability": 0.05765682656826567, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -39773,7 +41528,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.8203969519758992, + "probability": 0.8727662616154396, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -39793,12 +41548,12 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.1303384724437356, + "probability": 0.0704584907587052, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.049264575580365046, + "probability": 0.056775247625855195, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39873,27 +41628,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lael Brainard", - "probability": 0.06041120230137913, + "probability": 0.060406091370558364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Janet Yellen", - "probability": 0.8377189271511972, + "probability": 0.837648054145516, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Roger Ferguson", - "probability": 0.03130552500211524, + "probability": 0.031302876480541454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Mnuchin", - "probability": 0.05643455453084017, + "probability": 0.056429780033840936, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sarah Bloom Raskin", - "probability": 0.014129791014468228, + "probability": 0.014128595600676816, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -39913,7 +41668,7 @@ }, { "name": "Mellody Hobson", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.00008460236886632824, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40018,17 +41773,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 3", - "probability": 0.10729116368903911, + "probability": 0.1314345193035579, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Exactly 3", - "probability": 0.33771125060357315, + "probability": 0.3309046177138531, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Exactly 4", - "probability": 0.5549975857073878, + "probability": 0.5376608629825889, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40043,27 +41798,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative (Høyre)", - "probability": 0.49461823074335687, + "probability": 0.5181670513806959, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)", - "probability": 0.24024554322233435, + "probability": 0.24425066256305034, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Centre (Senterpartiet)", - "probability": 0.17162798520013453, + "probability": 0.14251517483115328, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)", - "probability": 0.04675412041708711, + "probability": 0.04753355561255022, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)", - "probability": 0.04675412041708711, + "probability": 0.04753355561255022, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40103,17 +41858,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 20", - "probability": 0.37535993418346364, + "probability": 0.38286492268793154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20–24", - "probability": 0.32651172357054714, + "probability": 0.37401536516580763, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "25 or more", - "probability": 0.29812834224598933, + "probability": 0.24311971214626082, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40128,22 +41883,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 65", - "probability": 0.16449558546822984, + "probability": 0.12167883211678833, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65–69", - "probability": 0.2783326096396005, + "probability": 0.28072992700729926, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "70–74", - "probability": 0.27001013171225935, + "probability": 0.2432846715328467, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 or more", - "probability": 0.28716167317991026, + "probability": 0.3543065693430657, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40203,12 +41958,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3273897602841077, + "probability": 0.1477627471383975, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6726102397158923, + "probability": 0.8522372528616025, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40243,32 +41998,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.6994758816736253, + "probability": 0.5873178931639895, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republic of Ireland", - "probability": 0.22208403659944925, + "probability": 0.23645872245050428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.03553344585591188, + "probability": 0.03735524841240194, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.02958159367504664, + "probability": 0.11393350765782591, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "China", - "probability": 0.004441680731988985, + "probability": 0.015595816212177809, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ukraine", - "probability": 0.00888336146397797, + "probability": 0.009338812103100485, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40283,32 +42038,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 45%", - "probability": 0.03125849415602065, + "probability": 0.027693048643441964, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "45–49.9%", - "probability": 0.1887288212376551, + "probability": 0.22298924385936747, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50–54.9%", - "probability": 0.36241732354806555, + "probability": 0.5460748113661904, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55–59.9%", - "probability": 0.3212829573253601, + "probability": 0.1543586450473591, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60–64.9%", - "probability": 0.08235933677629789, + "probability": 0.03652271632685824, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65% or over", - "probability": 0.013953066956600523, + "probability": 0.01236153475678279, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40323,12 +42078,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8372011251758087, + "probability": 0.7920825016633399, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16279887482419128, + "probability": 0.20791749833666, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40343,12 +42098,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7583376623376623, + "probability": 0.5852332347610417, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2416623376623377, + "probability": 0.4147667652389583, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40363,22 +42118,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labor", - "probability": 0.7427606901725431, + "probability": 0.8232995177116248, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Coalition", - "probability": 0.10720180045011252, + "probability": 0.010394146016963247, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greens", - "probability": 0.07501875468867217, + "probability": 0.08315316813570597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Any other party", - "probability": 0.07501875468867217, + "probability": 0.08315316813570597, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40413,12 +42168,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.8041970638566154, + "probability": 0.8055977823482071, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.19580293614338465, + "probability": 0.19440221765179289, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40433,17 +42188,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "GERB", - "probability": 0.580894931124516, + "probability": 0.5904451874010205, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "BSP", - "probability": 0.38804357612316553, + "probability": 0.3792011261657575, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "ITN", - "probability": 0.031061492752318356, + "probability": 0.03035368643322189, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40523,12 +42278,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8996919522525991, + "probability": 0.9544042489227378, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.10030804774740085, + "probability": 0.045595751077262256, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40536,76 +42291,6 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Next Scottish Labour leader", - "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42036626/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-scottish-labour-leader", - "platform": "Smarkets", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Anas Sarwar", - "probability": 0.5537514335727651, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Claire Baker", - "probability": 0.020824530693547415, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gordon Brown", - "probability": 0.023238969034828274, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ian Murray", - "probability": 0.07364036940906622, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jackie Baillie", - "probability": 0.07738274883805156, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "James Kelly", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Monica Lennon", - "probability": 0.18289370435202512, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rhoda Grant", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tony Blair", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Paul Sweeney", - "probability": 0.043097724391863344, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alistair Darling", - "probability": 0.025170519707852963, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Daniel Johnson", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Who will be the next permanent leader of the Scottish Labour Party? Candidates added on request.", - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Anas Sarwar, Claire Baker, Gordon Brown, Ian Murray, Jackie Baillie, James Kelly, Monica Lennon, Rhoda Grant, Tony Blair, Paul Sweeney, Alistair Darling, Daniel Johnson" - }, { "title": "$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days", "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days", @@ -40613,12 +42298,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.016748570855480892, + "probability": 0.03920031360250882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9832514291445191, + "probability": 0.9607996863974911, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40633,27 +42318,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.5057791948983659, + "probability": 0.4935695913118034, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.1811478676763651, + "probability": 0.207106792416881, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.09057393383818255, + "probability": 0.08659617033438125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.04533678756476684, + "probability": 0.04334571782414023, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.11857313670785173, + "probability": 0.11336572354005907, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -40663,7 +42348,7 @@ }, { "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.05858907931446791, + "probability": 0.05601600457273507, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -40683,12 +42368,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12945111154829825, + "probability": 0.11602004826434008, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8705488884517018, + "probability": 0.8839799517356599, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40773,12 +42458,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.40477636106051407, + "probability": 0.41033973412112257, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5952236389394859, + "probability": 0.5896602658788773, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40863,12 +42548,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4627465644573245, + "probability": 0.5028976732116599, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5372534355426755, + "probability": 0.4971023267883401, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40953,27 +42638,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "26 or fewer", - "probability": 0.15618714473108875, + "probability": 0.15643338880616622, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27–28", - "probability": 0.174901617839965, + "probability": 0.20854865551370758, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29–30", - "probability": 0.2610406646261478, + "probability": 0.26145222037312776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "31–32", - "probability": 0.23637953651071272, + "probability": 0.2367522116142594, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "33 or more", - "probability": 0.17149103629208567, + "probability": 0.13681352369273886, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41000,5 +42685,620 @@ "description": "How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election?", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "8 or fewer, 9 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Next G20 leader to leave", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yoshihide Suga (Japan)", + "probability": 0.5845854201446856, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Emmanuel Macron (France)", + "probability": 0.2107679465776294, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joe Biden (United States)", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Boris Johnson (United Kingdom)", + "probability": 0.20464663327768506, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil)", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Justin Trudeau (Canada)", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": 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Contracts added on request.", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservative, Plaid Cymru" + }, + { + "title": "2021 Senedd election: Labour majority", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-labour-majority", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32688113413304254, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6731188658669575, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election?", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Nicola Sturgeon exit date", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "2021", + "probability": 0.38717096856631744, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "2022 or later", + "probability": 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"platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Banffshire and Buchan Coast at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "SNP, Conservative" + }, + { + "title": "Edinburgh Pentlands", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104043/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-pentlands", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Edinburgh Pentlands at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "SNP, Conservative" + }, + { + "title": "Moray", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104044/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/moray", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": 0.6450212178032172, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 0.3549787821967828, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Moray at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "SNP, Conservative" + }, + { + "title": "Perthshire North", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104069/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-north", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Perthshire North at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "SNP, Conservative" + }, + { + "title": "Perthshire South and Kinross-shire", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shire", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "SNP, Conservative" } -] \ No newline at end of file +] diff --git a/data/omen-questions.csv b/data/omen-questions.csv index d970108..b232b74 100644 --- a/data/omen-questions.csv +++ b/data/omen-questions.csv @@ -1,8 +1,5 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" "Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 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","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c","Omen","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4763374035967523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5236625964032477,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,1 "Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb","Omen","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40138120377998826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5986187962200118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,1 -"Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b","Omen","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8510322451182969,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14896775488170313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,1 -"Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2","Omen","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,1 -"Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632","Omen","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08089382091153287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9191061790884671,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,1 \ No newline at end of file +"Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b","Omen","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8510322451182969,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14896775488170313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,1 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/omen-questions.json b/data/omen-questions.json index 61870cf..0320806 100644 --- a/data/omen-questions.json +++ b/data/omen-questions.json @@ -18,25 +18,6 @@ "description": "", "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?", - "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de", - "platform": "Omen", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05619249869291097, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.943807501307089, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "", - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ", "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c", @@ -93,43 +74,5 @@ ], "description": "", "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021?", - "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2", - "platform": "Omen", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "", - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?", - "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632", - "platform": "Omen", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08089382091153287, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9191061790884671, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "", - "stars": 1 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/polymarket-questions.csv b/data/polymarket-questions.csv index 16721d0..06af86f 100644 --- a/data/polymarket-questions.csv +++ b/data/polymarket-questions.csv @@ -1,23 +1,22 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" -"Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2647961731013341962204277026633759"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7352038268986658037795722973366241"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","530",4 -"Will the US have fewer than 50,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-50-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-march-15-2021-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.8248217287969907822900296261160104"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.1751782712030092177099703738839896"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, with fewer than 50,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No"" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. +"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.8981420109259007694807208401518636"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.1018579890740992305192791598481364"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","707",4 +"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.01685867038767367760047388337692878"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9831413296123263223995261166230712"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","147",4 +"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.01229935961587342208440562796589138"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9877006403841265779155943720341086"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. -In response to trader inquiry: If it can be reasonably construed that the resolution source, the CDC, will publish corrected or otherwise revised COVID-19 case numbers, resolution of this market will consider only those revised numbers. In the event of an initial report which counts case numbers as lower than 50,000 but which is later revised (within 48 hours), only the revised numbers will be considered for the resolution of this market. Accordingly, resolution of this market may be delayed up to 48 hours if revised numbers are expected to be published. Only revisions of case numbers for dates posted by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST will be considered. If case numbers for March 14 are not posted prior to March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST, those numbers will not be considered. -","3156",4 -"Will there be more than 120 million confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-120-million-confirmed-covid-19-cases-globally-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.955244463744624980908175890974739"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.044755536255375019091824109025261"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases there will be globally by April 1, 2021, 11:59 pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are more than 120,000,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally on or before the resolution date. This market will resolve to “No” if there are never more than 120,000,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, globally, as indicated by the World Health Organization’s Coronavirus Disease Dashboard (https://covid19.who.int/).","116",4 -"Will Beeple's ""Everydays: The First 5000 Days"" sell for more than $10 million in its Christie's auction?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-beeple-s-everydays-the-first-5000-days-sell-for-more-than-10-million-in-its-christie-s-auction","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4756028905269645841860727393298424"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5243971094730354158139272606701576"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether the final sale price for Beeple’s ""Everydays: The First 5000 Days"", currently on auction at Christie's, will be above $10 million. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the final hammer price of the auction is greater than $10 million USD and the sale is confirmed as successful, and “No” otherwise”. The auction is being conducted by Christie's and is scheduled to take place from February 25th to March 11th. In the event the auction is postponed, resolution of this market will be delayed accordingly. If the auction is canceled entirely, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","78",4 -"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",,"[]","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",, -"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.01684886180923374564962421237306903"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.983151138190766254350375787626931"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","131",4 -"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.01827366861209288451922618451176289"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9817263313879071154807738154882371"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. - -If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","2999",4 -"Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.450474706183786588423937890359378"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.549525293816213411576062109640622"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","3153",4 +"Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4475046001525960934229293478724627"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5524953998474039065770706521275373"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating is. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","293",4 +"Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021",,"[]","This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -","101",4 -"Who will win UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya?","https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-win-ufc-259-blachowicz-vs-adesanya","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Blachowicz"",""probability"":""0.3214151498810068517920317035522269"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adesanya"",""probability"":""0.6785848501189931482079682964477731"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on who will win the UFC 259 fight between Błachowicz and Adesanya, set to take place on March 6, 2021. This market will resolve to the winner of the bout, either by knockout or by judgment. If the UFC 259 fight is rescheduled to take place on a date other than March 6, 2021, the same rules will apply if the fight is rescheduled to any day before May 1, 2021. If the fight does not take place by May 1, 2021, this market will resolve to 50:50. If the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to 50:50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","50",4 -"New government stimulus checks by March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/new-government-stimulus-checks-by-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.8583908421501612714245532602067349"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.1416091578498387285754467397932651"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. If the stimulus payment is only available to a certain subset of US citizens, this market will still resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.","331",4 -"Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.8139752041979941074048220530797372"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.1860247958020058925951779469202628"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if a recall election is triggered and ""No"" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.","831",4 \ No newline at end of file +",, +"Who will win UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya?","https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-win-ufc-259-blachowicz-vs-adesanya","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Blachowicz"",""probability"":""0.3141779023823181786851128928975841"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adesanya"",""probability"":""0.6858220976176818213148871071024159"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on who will win the UFC 259 fight between Błachowicz and Adesanya, set to take place on March 6, 2021. This market will resolve to the winner of the bout, either by knockout or by judgment. If the UFC 259 fight is rescheduled to take place on a date other than March 6, 2021, the same rules will apply if the fight is rescheduled to any day before May 1, 2021. If the fight does not take place by May 1, 2021, this market will resolve to 50:50. If the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to 50:50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","63",4 +"New government stimulus checks by March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/new-government-stimulus-checks-by-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9131598853165752574627330319140927"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.08684011468342474253726696808590727"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. If the stimulus payment is only available to a certain subset of US citizens, this market will still resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.","455",4 +"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.954381801063281075115630095007493"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.04561819893671892488436990499250696"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/","553",4 +"Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3230737564835660463488157280580725"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6769262435164339536511842719419275"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/). +","48",4 +"Will ETH be above $1500 on March 7th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1500-on-march-7th-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4727359486101958848755236771579379"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5272640513898041151244763228420621"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1500 on March 7th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1500 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","1509",4 +"Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.8492400448475459157544770635792043"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.1507599551524540842455229364207957"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if a recall election is triggered and ""No"" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.","865",4 +"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1488372587522840622769273238302932"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8511627412477159377230726761697068"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","211",4 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/polymarket-questions.json b/data/polymarket-questions.json index e0b4e49..9412685 100644 --- a/data/polymarket-questions.json +++ b/data/polymarket-questions.json @@ -1,94 +1,23 @@ [ - { - "title": "Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before April 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-april-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2647961731013341962204277026633759", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7352038268986658037795722973366241", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "530", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will the US have fewer than 50,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before March 15, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-50-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-march-15-2021-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, with fewer than 50,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. \n\nIn response to trader inquiry: If it can be reasonably construed that the resolution source, the CDC, will publish corrected or otherwise revised COVID-19 case numbers, resolution of this market will consider only those revised numbers. In the event of an initial report which counts case numbers as lower than 50,000 but which is later revised (within 48 hours), only the revised numbers will be considered for the resolution of this market. Accordingly, resolution of this market may be delayed up to 48 hours if revised numbers are expected to be published. Only revisions of case numbers for dates posted by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST will be considered. If case numbers for March 14 are not posted prior to March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST, those numbers will not be considered.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8248217287969907822900296261160104", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1751782712030092177099703738839896", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "3156", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will there be more than 120 million confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by April 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-120-million-confirmed-covid-19-cases-globally-by-april-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases there will be globally by April 1, 2021, 11:59 pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are more than 120,000,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally on or before the resolution date. This market will resolve to “No” if there are never more than 120,000,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, globally, as indicated by the World Health Organization’s Coronavirus Disease Dashboard (https://covid19.who.int/).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.955244463744624980908175890974739", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.044755536255375019091824109025261", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "116", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will Beeple's \"Everydays: The First 5000 Days\" sell for more than $10 million in its Christie's auction?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-beeple-s-everydays-the-first-5000-days-sell-for-more-than-10-million-in-its-christie-s-auction", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the final sale price for Beeple’s \"Everydays: The First 5000 Days\", currently on auction at Christie's, will be above $10 million. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the final hammer price of the auction is greater than $10 million USD and the sale is confirmed as successful, and “No” otherwise”. The auction is being conducted by Christie's and is scheduled to take place from February 25th to March 11th. In the event the auction is postponed, resolution of this market will be delayed accordingly. If the auction is canceled entirely, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4756028905269645841860727393298424", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5243971094730354158139272606701576", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "78", - "stars": 4 - }, { "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", - "address": "0xB0E171C4e2490b97b3CEbAF36FA4006318A09b25", + "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.8981420109259007694807208401518636", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.1018579890740992305192791598481364", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } ], - "options": [] + "numforecasts": "707", + "stars": 4 }, { "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", @@ -98,16 +27,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01684886180923374564962421237306903", + "probability": "0.01685867038767367760047388337692878", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.983151138190766254350375787626931", + "probability": "0.9831413296123263223995261166230712", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "131", + "numforecasts": "147", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -118,37 +47,48 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01827366861209288451922618451176289", + "probability": "0.01229935961587342208440562796589138", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9817263313879071154807738154882371", + "probability": "0.9877006403841265779155943720341086", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "2999", + "numforecasts": "3153", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating is. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4475046001525960934229293478724627", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5524953998474039065770706521275373", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "293", "stars": 4 }, { "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", + "address": "0x514e63F5CC8a03D4AFcEf8C67770eC733409171D", "description": "This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n \n\n\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.450474706183786588423937890359378", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.549525293816213411576062109640622", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" ], - "numforecasts": "101", - "stars": 4 + "options": [] }, { "title": "Who will win UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya?", @@ -158,16 +98,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Blachowicz", - "probability": "0.3214151498810068517920317035522269", + "probability": "0.3141779023823181786851128928975841", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Adesanya", - "probability": "0.6785848501189931482079682964477731", + "probability": "0.6858220976176818213148871071024159", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "50", + "numforecasts": "63", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -178,16 +118,76 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8583908421501612714245532602067349", + "probability": "0.9131598853165752574627330319140927", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1416091578498387285754467397932651", + "probability": "0.08684011468342474253726696808590727", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "331", + "numforecasts": "455", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.954381801063281075115630095007493", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.04561819893671892488436990499250696", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "553", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.3230737564835660463488157280580725", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.6769262435164339536511842719419275", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "48", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will ETH be above $1500 on March 7th, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1500-on-march-7th-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1500 on March 7th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1500 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4727359486101958848755236771579379", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5272640513898041151244763228420621", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "1509", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -198,16 +198,36 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8139752041979941074048220530797372", + "probability": "0.8492400448475459157544770635792043", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1860247958020058925951779469202628", + "probability": "0.1507599551524540842455229364207957", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "831", + "numforecasts": "865", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1488372587522840622769273238302932", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8511627412477159377230726761697068", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "211", "stars": 4 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/predictit-questions.csv b/data/predictit-questions.csv index 9aafa8f..1d2c0b2 100644 --- a/data/predictit-questions.csv +++ b/data/predictit-questions.csv @@ -1,62 +1,49 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" -"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.7524752475247525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.24752475247524752,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5288461538461539,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4326923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Libertarian"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. +"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5238095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4380952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Libertarian"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.548076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.45192307692307687,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date. +"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5436893203883496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.45631067961165045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4215686274509804,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. +"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5841584158415841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4158415841584158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.22115384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.7115384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans. +"How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.2201834862385321,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.7155963302752293,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans. Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Members of the House of Representatives who are ""delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court. +"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. +"Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. +"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Miguel Cardona"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lily Eskelsen Garcia"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Randi Weingarten"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""L. Darling-Hammond"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Gutmann"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Betsy DeVos"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jahana Hayes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tony Thurmond"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Freeman A. Hrabowski"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonja Santelises"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eduardo Padrón"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sean Spiller"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Leslie Fenwick"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharon Contreras"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/28/2021. -The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. -Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. -PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) - -Supplementary Comment(s) - -Created On: 02/28/2021 2:59 PM (ET) -In response to trader inquiry: In the event that Mr. Cardona is confirmed on March 1, if there is any uncertainty as to whether he has been sworn in by the End Date, this market will remain open for trading until PredictIt has determined the time he was sworn in. -Created On: 02/08/2021 4:19 PM (ET) -In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date. -",,3 -"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020. +"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -76,12 +63,12 @@ End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.4210526315789473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.17543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.12280701754385964,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.09649122807017543,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.06140350877192982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.026315789473684206,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.44347826086956516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.17391304347826086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.1217391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.08695652173913043,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.0608695652173913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.026086956521739126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.017391304347826084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.017391304347826084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -93,37 +80,37 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. +"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. +"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. +"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.40196078431372545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6138613861386139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.38613861386138615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5841584158415841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4158415841584158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. +"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. +"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Samantha Power"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ertharin Cousin"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Schrayer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frederick Barton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Konyndyk"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barsa"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ami Bera"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gayle Smith"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021. +"Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Samantha Power"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ertharin Cousin"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Schrayer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frederick Barton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Konyndyk"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barsa"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ami Bera"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gayle Smith"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -136,143 +123,143 @@ In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate Created On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET) Note: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules ",,3 -"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. +"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.7524752475247525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.24752475247524752,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.8446601941747572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Carroll Foy"",""probability"":0.10679611650485436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Fairfax"",""probability"":0.029126213592233007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer McClellan"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Carroll Foy"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Fairfax"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer McClellan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""). +"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""). Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. +"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.16666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.3055555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.21296296296296297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.16666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.046296296296296294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. +"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.4107142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.39285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.03571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.02678571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.017857142857142856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.017857142857142856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.017857142857142856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""). +"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.43362831858407075,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.38938053097345127,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.026548672566371678,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.017699115044247787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.017699115044247787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.017699115044247787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.017699115044247787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""). Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.5576923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.19230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.13461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.08653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.040000000000000036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes. +"Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.020000000000000018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.23584905660377353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.14150943396226412,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.09433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.09433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.06603773584905659,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.05660377358490564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.037735849056603765,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.037735849056603765,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.037735849056603765,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.037735849056603765,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.02830188679245282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.02830188679245282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.02830188679245282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.02830188679245282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.02830188679245282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.018867924528301883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. +"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.24761904761904757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.14285714285714282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.09523809523809522,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.09523809523809522,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.05714285714285713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.05714285714285713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.038095238095238085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.038095238095238085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.038095238095238085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.038095238095238085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.028571428571428564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.028571428571428564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.028571428571428564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.028571428571428564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.019047619047619042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.019047619047619042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. +"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.05714285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.14285714285714288,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.2285714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.2285714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.20000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.09523809523809526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.04761904761904763,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. +"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.046296296296296294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.19444444444444442,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.25925925925925924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.23148148148148145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.17592592592592593,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.07407407407407407,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below. +"Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below. +"Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. +"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below. +"Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. +"Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. +"Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.7549019607843137,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.24509803921568626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.5196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.18627450980392157,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.11764705882352941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.058823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. +"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. +"Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. +"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below. +"Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below. A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district. +"Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 5th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7104/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-5th-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Julia Letlow"",""probability"":0.8909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Candy Christophe"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Davis"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Allen Guillory Sr."",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chad Conerly"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Lansden"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jaycee Magnuson"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Horace Melton III"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vinny Mendoza"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Pannell"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sancha Smith"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Errol Victor Sr."",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 5th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. +"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 5th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7104/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-5th-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Julia Letlow"",""probability"":0.8999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Candy Christophe"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Davis"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Allen Guillory Sr."",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chad Conerly"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Lansden"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jaycee Magnuson"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Horace Melton III"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vinny Mendoza"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Pannell"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sancha Smith"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Errol Victor Sr."",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 5th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.5932203389830507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.2796610169491525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.025423728813559317,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. +"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.6016949152542371,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.2796610169491525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.016949152542372878,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.07272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. +"Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8952380952380952,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5346534653465347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4653465346534653,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Michael Regan as EPA Administrator by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7108/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Michael-Regan-as-EPA-Administrator-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.41441441441441446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.22522522522522526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.16216216216216217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.10810810810810811,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.04504504504504505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.00900900900900901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.00900900900900901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.00900900900900901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.00900900900900901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.00900900900900901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Michael Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Michael Regan as EPA Administrator by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7108/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Michael-Regan-as-EPA-Administrator-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.4038461538461539,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.2307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.18269230769230774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.10576923076923078,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.02884615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.009615384615384618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.009615384615384618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.009615384615384618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.009615384615384618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.009615384615384618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Michael Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Regan be confirmed to position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.48275862068965514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.21551724137931033,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.12068965517241378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.09482758620689655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.034482758620689655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.017241379310344827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021. +"Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.4862385321100917,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.25688073394495414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.11926605504587155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.055045871559633024,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.03669724770642201,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. @@ -290,18 +277,18 @@ Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a t PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6310679611650486,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.36893203883495146,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.24299065420560748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.14018691588785046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.14953271028037382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.18691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.14953271028037382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.07476635514018691,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.3106796116504854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.1650485436893204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.1553398058252427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.1650485436893204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.0970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.0679611650485437,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Walsh be confirmed to position of Secretary of Labor in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.13084112149532712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 53"",""probability"":0.6728971962616822,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 to 57"",""probability"":0.12149532710280374,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 to 61"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 65"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 69"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70 to 73"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 77"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 81"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""82 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Xavier Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.2293577981651376,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 53"",""probability"":0.6697247706422018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 to 57"",""probability"":0.03669724770642201,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 to 61"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 65"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 69"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70 to 73"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 77"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 81"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""82 or more"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Xavier Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Becerra be confirmed to position of Secretary of Health and Human Services in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""49 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""82 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. @@ -309,22 +296,22 @@ The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other p PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney'). +"Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney'). Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.42592592592592593,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.13888888888888887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.12037037037037036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.12037037037037036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.046296296296296294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.046296296296296294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. +"Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.3529411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.21568627450980393,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.16666666666666669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.029411764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.029411764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.029411764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter ""S"". PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election. +"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against","PredictIt","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.029126213592233007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.08737864077669902,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.2718446601941748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.5339805825242718,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021. +"How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against","PredictIt","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.07692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.21153846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.3557692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.2692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- @@ -339,17 +326,17 @@ Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed. ",,3 -"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021. +"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.8095238095238094,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.18095238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. +"Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.48672566371681414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 52"",""probability"":0.42477876106194684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""53 to 55"",""probability"":0.026548672566371678,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 to 58"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""59 to 61"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 or more"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.9166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 52"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""53 to 55"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 to 58"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""59 to 61"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 or more"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tanden be confirmed to position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""49 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""74 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. @@ -357,54 +344,54 @@ The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other p PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.39814814814814814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.1111111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.09259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.08333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.08333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.08333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.046296296296296294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.046296296296296294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. +"Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.41904761904761906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.11428571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.0857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.0857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.0857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.047619047619047616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.047619047619047616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are ""Xi"" and ""Suga"", respectively. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. +"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. +"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.05660377358490567,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.028301886792452834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.0849056603773585,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.14150943396226418,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.22641509433962267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.32075471698113217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.11320754716981134,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.009433962264150945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.009433962264150945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament. +"How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.07547169811320754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.056603773584905655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.08490566037735849,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.20754716981132074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.22641509433962262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.2830188679245283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. +"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.40196078431372545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.594059405940594,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4059405940594059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6699029126213591,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.3300970873786408,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.676470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.3235294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5294117647058824,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.47058823529411764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5247524752475248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4752475247524752,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021. +"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.49504950495049493,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.10891089108910888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.08910891089108909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.05940594059405939,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.04950495049504949,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nani Coloretti"",""probability"":0.04950495049504949,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jared Bernstein"",""probability"":0.0396039603960396,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.029702970297029695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.029702970297029695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.0198019801980198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonal Shah"",""probability"":0.0198019801980198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Merrick Garland as Attorney General by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7135/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Merrick-Garland-as-Attorney-General-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""64 or fewer"",""probability"":0.055045871559633024,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.08256880733944953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.1559633027522936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.19266055045871558,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.2201834862385321,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.1559633027522936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.09174311926605505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.027522935779816512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 or more"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Merrick Garland to the position of Attorney General, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Merrick Garland as Attorney General by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7135/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Merrick-Garland-as-Attorney-General-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""64 or fewer"",""probability"":0.08910891089108912,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.07920792079207922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.16831683168316836,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.21782178217821788,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.20792079207920797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.11881188118811883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.07920792079207922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.019801980198019806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.009900990099009903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 or more"",""probability"":0.009900990099009903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Merrick Garland to the position of Attorney General, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Garland to the position of Attorney General commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Garland be confirmed to position of Attorney General in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""64 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""89 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Garland to the position of Attorney General be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021. +"Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET) @@ -414,12 +401,12 @@ Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. ",,3 -"How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in next California update?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7137/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-next-California-update","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1M"",""probability"":0.16216216216216214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1M to 1.05M"",""probability"":0.2252252252252252,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.05M to 1.1M"",""probability"":0.18018018018018017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.1M to 1.15M"",""probability"":0.14414414414414414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.15M to 1.2M"",""probability"":0.09009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.2M to 1.25M"",""probability"":0.06306306306306306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.25M to 1.3M"",""probability"":0.05405405405405405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.3M to 1.35M"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.35M to 1.4M"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.4M or more"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State in its next status report subsequent to the launch of this market on February 23, 2021. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts. +"How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in next California update?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7137/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-next-California-update","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1M"",""probability"":0.22999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1M to 1.05M"",""probability"":0.27999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.05M to 1.1M"",""probability"":0.15999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.1M to 1.15M"",""probability"":0.10999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.15M to 1.2M"",""probability"":0.04999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.2M to 1.25M"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.25M to 1.3M"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.3M to 1.35M"",""probability"":0.029999999999999992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.35M to 1.4M"",""probability"":0.029999999999999992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.4M or more"",""probability"":0.029999999999999992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State in its next status report subsequent to the launch of this market on February 23, 2021. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Deb Haaland as Interior Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7138/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Deb-Haaland-as-Interior-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.17699115044247787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 or 51"",""probability"":0.20353982300884954,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""52 or 53"",""probability"":0.2654867256637168,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 or 55"",""probability"":0.15929203539823006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 or 57"",""probability"":0.08849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 or 59"",""probability"":0.04424778761061947,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 or 61"",""probability"":0.026548672566371678,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 or 63"",""probability"":0.017699115044247787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""64 or 65"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 or more"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Deb Haaland (D-NM) to the position of Secretary of the Interior, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Deb Haaland as Interior Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7138/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Deb-Haaland-as-Interior-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.3679245283018869,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 or 51"",""probability"":0.04716981132075473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""52 or 53"",""probability"":0.26415094339622647,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 or 55"",""probability"":0.17924528301886797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 or 57"",""probability"":0.07547169811320756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 or 59"",""probability"":0.028301886792452834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 or 61"",""probability"":0.009433962264150945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 or 63"",""probability"":0.009433962264150945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""64 or 65"",""probability"":0.009433962264150945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Deb Haaland (D-NM) to the position of Secretary of the Interior, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Haaland to the position of Secretary of the Interior commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Rep. Haaland be confirmed to position of Secretary of the Interior in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""49 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""66 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Haaland to the position of Secretary of the Interior be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. @@ -427,81 +414,91 @@ The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other p PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.2869565217391304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.26086956521739124,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.23478260869565215,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.06956521739130433,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.05217391304347825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.043478260869565216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.043478260869565216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below. +"Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below. Should no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7140/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-William-Burns-as-CIA-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.12380952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.05714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.0857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.11428571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.13333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.1619047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.11428571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.10476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.07619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of William Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7140/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-William-Burns-as-CIA-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.12820512820512822,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.017094017094017096,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.02564102564102564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.05982905982905984,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.09401709401709403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.11111111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.15384615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.1794871794871795,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.13675213675213677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.09401709401709403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of William Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Burns be confirmed to position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""70 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""95 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 House GOP nomination in any Illinois district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-district","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6799999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois. +"Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 House GOP nomination in any Illinois district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-district","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below. +"Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.5514018691588785,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.11214953271028036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.09345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.04672897196261682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.04672897196261682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.04672897196261682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.037383177570093455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. +"Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.5092592592592592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.12037037037037034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.11111111111111108,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.0648148148148148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.04629629629629629,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.04629629629629629,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.03703703703703703,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.018518518518518514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.018518518518518514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru. +"Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.45945945945945943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.2162162162162162,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.1081081081081081,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.05405405405405405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.04504504504504504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.04504504504504504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.018018018018018018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.018018018018018018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Katherine Tai as USTR by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7146/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Katherine-Tai-as-USTR-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Katherine Tai as USTR by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7146/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Katherine-Tai-as-USTR-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.24545454545454545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.03636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.07272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.11818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.21818181818181814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.2727272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tai be confirmed to position of United States Trade Representative in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Cecilia Rouse as CEA Chair by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7147/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Cecilia-Rouse-as-CEA-Chair-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.07272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.10909090909090907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.14545454545454545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.1727272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.1909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.14545454545454545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.09999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/01/2021. -The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Cecilia Rouse to the position of Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. -A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. -Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Rouse to the position of Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Rouse be confirmed to position of Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Rouse to the position of Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. -The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. -PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) - -Supplementary Comment(s) - -Created On: 03/01/2021 8:05 PM (ET) -NOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE. -Offers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions. -",,3 -"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7148/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Deb Haaland"",""probability"":0.9514563106796116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Udall"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Bullock"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Heinrich"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raúl Grijalva"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carol Moseley-Braun"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Secretary of the Interior following launch of this market on March 1, 2021. +"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7148/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Deb Haaland"",""probability"":0.9519230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Udall"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Bullock"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Heinrich"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raúl Grijalva"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carol Moseley-Braun"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Secretary of the Interior following launch of this market on March 1, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Secretary of the Interior by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Isabel Guzman as SBA Administrator by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7150/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Isabel-Guzman-as-SBA-Administrator-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""61 or fewer"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Isabel Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by March 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7149/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-March-16","PredictIt","[{""name"":""11 or 12"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13 or 14"",""probability"":0.04672897196261682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15 or 16"",""probability"":0.44859813084112143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17 or 18"",""probability"":0.42990654205607476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19 or 20"",""probability"":0.04672897196261682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21 or 22"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of nominees of the current administration who will have been confirmed to their respective positions in the U.S. Cabinet by the End Date listed below. +For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – +The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- +And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- +And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration. +Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. +End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET) +",,3 +"How many Senators vote to confirm Isabel Guzman as SBA Administrator by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7150/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Isabel-Guzman-as-SBA-Administrator-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""61 or fewer"",""probability"":0.24778761061946902,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.035398230088495575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.08849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.12389380530973451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.1327433628318584,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.12389380530973451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.09734513274336282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.07964601769911503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.035398230088495575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 or more"",""probability"":0.035398230088495575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Isabel Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Guzman be confirmed to position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""61 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""86 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7152/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""61 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.04672897196261682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.3831775700934579,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.48598130841121495,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 or more"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/01/2021. -The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Gina Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Susan Wright"",""probability"":0.5754716981132075,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jana Sanchez"",""probability"":0.20754716981132074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jake Ellzey"",""probability"":0.14150943396226415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Harrison"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katrina Pierson"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sery Kim"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lydia Bean"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shawn Lassiter"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. +Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. +PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. +",,3 +"How many Senators vote to confirm Marcia Fudge as HUD Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7153/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marcia-Fudge-as-HUD-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""61 or fewer"",""probability"":0.35514018691588783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.102803738317757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.14953271028037382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.12149532710280374,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.12149532710280374,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.08411214953271028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.037383177570093455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. -Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Raimondo be confirmed to position of Secretary of Commerce in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""61 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""86 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. +Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Rep. Fudge be confirmed to position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""61 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""86 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) - -Supplementary Comment(s) - -Created On: 03/01/2021 8:04 PM (ET) -NOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE. -Offers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions. +",,3 +"Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Lorena González"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colleen Echohawk"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lance Randall"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Harrell"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Durkan"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. +",,3 +"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Nicholas Burns"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Kritenbrink"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire McCaskill"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlene Barshefsky"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Shambaugh"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021. +Should no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. +A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. +End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) +",,3 +"How many Yea votes in the Senate for the American Rescue Plan?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7156/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-Senate-for-the-American-Rescue-Plan","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50"",""probability"":0.6857142857142856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""51"",""probability"":0.22857142857142856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""52"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""53"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Senate who, before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of the American Rescue Plan. +Should more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""49 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""56 or more"" shall resolve as Yes. +Any vote cast by the Vice President shall not be considered when resolving this market. +Votes taken in committee, or on cloture, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. +End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 AM (ET) ",,3 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/predictit-questions.json b/data/predictit-questions.json index 6442461..7f268a6 100644 --- a/data/predictit-questions.json +++ b/data/predictit-questions.json @@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.7524752475247525, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.24752475247524752, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25,22 +25,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5288461538461539, + "probability": 0.5238095238095238, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4326923076923077, + "probability": 0.4380952380952381, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Libertarian", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -54,12 +54,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.548076923076923, + "probability": 0.5436893203883496, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.45192307692307687, + "probability": 0.45631067961165045, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -73,12 +73,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5784313725490196, + "probability": 0.5841584158415841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4215686274509804, + "probability": 0.4158415841584158, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -92,47 +92,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "22 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "25", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26", - "probability": 0.22115384615384615, + "probability": 0.2201834862385321, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27", - "probability": 0.7115384615384615, + "probability": 0.7155963302752293, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or more", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -146,12 +146,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -165,12 +165,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -184,97 +184,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3 }, - { - "title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Miguel Cardona", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lily Eskelsen Garcia", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Randi Weingarten", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "L. Darling-Hammond", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Amy Gutmann", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Betsy DeVos", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jahana Hayes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tony Thurmond", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Freeman A. Hrabowski", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sonja Santelises", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eduardo Padrón", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sean Spiller", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Leslie Fenwick", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sharon Contreras", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/28/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/28/2021 2:59 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In the event that Mr. Cardona is confirmed on March 1, if there is any uncertainty as to whether he has been sworn in by the End Date, this market will remain open for trading until PredictIt has determined the time he was sworn in.\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:19 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n", - "stars": 3 - }, { "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14", @@ -282,12 +203,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -339,12 +260,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -358,72 +279,72 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.4210526315789473, + "probability": 0.44347826086956516, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.17543859649122806, + "probability": 0.17391304347826086, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.12280701754385964, + "probability": 0.1217391304347826, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.09649122807017543, + "probability": 0.08695652173913043, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.06140350877192982, + "probability": 0.0608695652173913, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.026315789473684206, + "probability": 0.026086956521739126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "probability": 0.017391304347826084, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Catsimatidis", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "probability": 0.017391304347826084, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Rose", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zach Iscol", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Catsimatidis", + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -475,12 +396,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -494,12 +415,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -513,12 +434,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -532,12 +453,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5980392156862745, + "probability": 0.6138613861386139, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.40196078431372545, + "probability": 0.38613861386138615, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -551,12 +472,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5841584158415841, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4158415841584158, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -570,12 +491,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -589,12 +510,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -608,7 +529,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Samantha Power", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -657,12 +578,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -676,12 +597,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.7524752475247525, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.24752475247524752, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -695,22 +616,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Terry McAuliffe", - "probability": 0.8446601941747572, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy", - "probability": 0.10679611650485436, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Fairfax", - "probability": 0.029126213592233007, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jennifer McClellan", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -724,12 +645,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -743,52 +664,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "23 or fewer", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24 or 25", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.027777777777777776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26 or 27", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.16666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28 or 29", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.3055555555555555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or 31", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.21296296296296297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "32 or 33", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.16666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "34 or 35", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.046296296296296294, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "36 or 37", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.027777777777777776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "38 or 39", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40 or more", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -802,12 +723,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -821,82 +742,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.4107142857142857, + "probability": 0.43362831858407075, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.39285714285714285, + "probability": 0.38938053097345127, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.03571428571428571, + "probability": 0.026548672566371678, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.02678571428571428, + "probability": 0.017699115044247787, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.017699115044247787, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.017699115044247787, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.017699115044247787, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christian Lindner", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katja Kipping", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Gauland", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernd Riexinger", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -910,37 +831,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kirk Cox", - "probability": 0.5576923076923076, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Snyder", - "probability": 0.19230769230769232, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Glenn Youngkin", - "probability": 0.13461538461538464, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amanda Chase", - "probability": 0.08653846153846154, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neil Chatterjee", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmett Hanger", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bill Stanley", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -954,12 +875,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.040000000000000036, + "probability": 0.020000000000000018, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -973,82 +894,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.23584905660377353, + "probability": 0.24761904761904757, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.14150943396226412, + "probability": 0.14285714285714282, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.09433962264150941, + "probability": 0.09523809523809522, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.09433962264150941, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.06603773584905659, + "probability": 0.09523809523809522, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.05660377358490564, + "probability": 0.05714285714285713, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pence", + "probability": 0.05714285714285713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.037735849056603765, + "probability": 0.038095238095238085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.037735849056603765, + "probability": 0.038095238095238085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.037735849056603765, + "probability": 0.038095238095238085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.037735849056603765, + "probability": 0.038095238095238085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.02830188679245282, + "probability": 0.028571428571428564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.02830188679245282, + "probability": 0.028571428571428564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.02830188679245282, + "probability": 0.028571428571428564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.02830188679245282, + "probability": 0.028571428571428564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.02830188679245282, + "probability": 0.019047619047619042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Larry Hogan", - "probability": 0.018867924528301883, + "probability": 0.019047619047619042, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1067,7 +988,7 @@ }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1077,12 +998,12 @@ }, { "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1106,37 +1027,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "33 or fewer", - "probability": 0.05714285714285715, + "probability": 0.046296296296296294, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "34 or 35", - "probability": 0.14285714285714288, + "probability": 0.19444444444444442, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "36 or 37", - "probability": 0.2285714285714286, + "probability": 0.25925925925925924, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "38 or 39", - "probability": 0.2285714285714286, + "probability": 0.23148148148148145, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40 or 41", - "probability": 0.20000000000000004, + "probability": 0.17592592592592593, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42 or 43", - "probability": 0.09523809523809526, + "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "44 or more", - "probability": 0.04761904761904763, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1150,22 +1071,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Michelle Wu", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Janey", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Campbell", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Essaibi-George", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jon Santiago", + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1177,11 +1103,6 @@ "name": "Marty Walsh", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jon Santiago", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", @@ -1194,12 +1115,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1213,12 +1134,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1232,12 +1153,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1251,12 +1172,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1270,12 +1191,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1289,12 +1210,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1308,12 +1229,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.7549019607843137, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.24509803921568626, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1327,67 +1248,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jane Timken", - "probability": 0.5196078431372549, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.18627450980392157, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "J. D. Vance", - "probability": 0.11764705882352941, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Stivers", - "probability": 0.058823529411764705, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.0392156862745098, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Frank LaRose", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Wenstrup", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Turner", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1401,12 +1322,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1420,12 +1341,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1439,12 +1360,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1458,12 +1379,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1477,12 +1398,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Julia Letlow", - "probability": 0.8909090909090909, + "probability": 0.8999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Candy Christophe", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1546,7 +1467,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Troy Carter", - "probability": 0.5932203389830507, + "probability": 0.6016949152542371, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1556,7 +1477,7 @@ }, { "name": "Gary Chambers", - "probability": 0.025423728813559317, + "probability": 0.016949152542372878, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1630,52 +1551,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lenín Moreno", - "probability": 0.8090909090909091, + "probability": 0.8952380952380952, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Ortega", - "probability": 0.07272727272727272, + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sebastián Piñera", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Iván Duque", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "A. M. López Obrador", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nicolás Maduro", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Francisco Sagasti", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sebastián Piñera", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Iván Duque", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "A. M. López Obrador", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Fernández", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luis Arce", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nicolás Maduro", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1689,12 +1610,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5346534653465347, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4653465346534653, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1708,52 +1629,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.41441441441441446, + "probability": 0.4038461538461539, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.22522522522522526, + "probability": 0.2307692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.16216216216216217, + "probability": 0.18269230769230774, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.10810810810810811, + "probability": 0.10576923076923078, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.04504504504504505, + "probability": 0.02884615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.00900900900900901, + "probability": 0.009615384615384618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.00900900900900901, + "probability": 0.009615384615384618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.00900900900900901, + "probability": 0.009615384615384618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.00900900900900901, + "probability": 0.009615384615384618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.00900900900900901, + "probability": 0.009615384615384618, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1767,52 +1688,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Hassan Rouhani", - "probability": 0.48275862068965514, + "probability": 0.4862385321100917, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.21551724137931033, + "probability": 0.25688073394495414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.12068965517241378, + "probability": 0.11926605504587155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.09482758620689655, + "probability": 0.055045871559633024, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Jong-un", - "probability": 0.034482758620689655, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.017241379310344827, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Moon Jae-in", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joko Widodo", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1845,12 +1766,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6310679611650486, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.36893203883495146, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1864,52 +1785,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.24299065420560748, + "probability": 0.3106796116504854, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.14018691588785046, + "probability": 0.1650485436893204, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.14953271028037382, + "probability": 0.1553398058252427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.18691588785046728, + "probability": 0.1650485436893204, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.14953271028037382, + "probability": 0.0970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.07476635514018691, + "probability": 0.0679611650485437, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1923,52 +1844,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.13084112149532712, + "probability": 0.2293577981651376, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 to 53", - "probability": 0.6728971962616822, + "probability": 0.6697247706422018, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54 to 57", - "probability": 0.12149532710280374, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 to 61", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 65", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 to 69", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "70 to 73", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 77", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "78 to 81", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "82 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1987,7 +1908,7 @@ }, { "name": "Tali Weinstein", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1997,11 +1918,6 @@ }, { "name": "Dan Quart", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cyrus Vance", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -2010,9 +1926,14 @@ "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Cyrus Vance", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Lucy Lang", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2036,52 +1957,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune", - "probability": 0.42592592592592593, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.13888888888888887, + "probability": 0.3529411764705882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", - "probability": 0.12037037037037036, + "probability": 0.21568627450980393, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", + "probability": 0.16666666666666669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abiy Ahmed", - "probability": 0.12037037037037036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", - "probability": 0.046296296296296294, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", - "probability": 0.046296296296296294, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", - "probability": 0.037037037037037035, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paul Kagame", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2095,12 +2016,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2114,62 +2035,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "12 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "13", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "15", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "17", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "19", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.07692307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20", - "probability": 0.029126213592233007, + "probability": 0.21153846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21", - "probability": 0.08737864077669902, + "probability": 0.3557692307692307, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "22", - "probability": 0.2718446601941748, + "probability": 0.2692307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23 or more", - "probability": 0.5339805825242718, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2181,41 +2102,41 @@ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ + { + "name": "Jonathan Kanter", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Renata Hesse", "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Jonathan Kanter", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Terrell McSweeny", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steven Sunshine", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Susan Davies", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Sallet", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dave Gelfand", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Susan Davies", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Deborah Feinstein", "probability": 0.01, @@ -2227,7 +2148,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Dave Gelfand", + "name": "Steven Sunshine", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -2247,17 +2168,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrés Arauz", - "probability": 0.8095238095238094, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Guillermo Lasso", - "probability": 0.18095238095238095, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yaku Pérez", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2271,52 +2192,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.48672566371681414, + "probability": 0.9166666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 to 52", - "probability": 0.42477876106194684, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53 to 55", - "probability": 0.026548672566371678, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56 to 58", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "59 to 61", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 or more", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2330,52 +2251,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.39814814814814814, + "probability": 0.41904761904761906, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.1111111111111111, + "probability": 0.11428571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Trudeau", - "probability": 0.09259259259259259, + "probability": 0.0857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.08333333333333333, + "probability": 0.0857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.08333333333333333, + "probability": 0.0857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.08333333333333333, + "probability": 0.06666666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.046296296296296294, + "probability": 0.047619047619047616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.046296296296296294, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.047619047619047616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Xi Jinping", + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2389,12 +2310,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tim Ryan", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amy Acton", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2423,7 +2344,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2432,24 +2353,24 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Madeleine Dean", + "name": "Conor Lamb", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Conor Lamb", + "name": "Madeleine Dean", "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Joe Sestak", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Jim Kenney", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joe Sestak", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", @@ -2462,52 +2383,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "62 or fewer", - "probability": 0.05660377358490567, + "probability": 0.07547169811320754, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 or 64", - "probability": 0.028301886792452834, + "probability": 0.056603773584905655, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 or 66", - "probability": 0.0849056603773585, + "probability": 0.08490566037735849, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "67 or 68", - "probability": 0.14150943396226418, + "probability": 0.20754716981132074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 or 70", - "probability": 0.22641509433962267, + "probability": 0.22641509433962262, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 or 72", - "probability": 0.32075471698113217, + "probability": 0.2830188679245283, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or 74", - "probability": 0.11320754716981134, + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 or 76", - "probability": 0.009433962264150945, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 or 78", - "probability": 0.009433962264150945, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "79 or more", - "probability": 0.009433962264150945, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2520,28 +2441,28 @@ "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ { - "name": "Ryan Costello", - "probability": 0.16, + "name": "Guy Reschenthaler", + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Guy Reschenthaler", + "name": "Ryan Costello", "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Everett Stern", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlie Dent", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2555,12 +2476,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5980392156862745, + "probability": 0.594059405940594, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.40196078431372545, + "probability": 0.4059405940594059, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2574,12 +2495,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6699029126213591, + "probability": 0.676470588235294, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.3300970873786408, + "probability": 0.3235294117647059, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2593,12 +2514,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5294117647058824, + "probability": 0.5247524752475248, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.47058823529411764, + "probability": 0.4752475247524752, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2610,34 +2531,64 @@ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ - { - "name": "Neera Tanden", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Shalanda Young", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gene Sperling", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.49504950495049493, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann O'Leary", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.10891089108910888, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Martha Coven", - "probability": 0.03, + "name": "Gene Sperling", + "probability": 0.08910891089108909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Lu", + "probability": 0.05940594059405939, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sarah Bianchi", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04950495049504949, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nani Coloretti", + "probability": 0.04950495049504949, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jared Bernstein", + "probability": 0.0396039603960396, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Martha Coven", + "probability": 0.029702970297029695, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Heather Boushey", + "probability": 0.029702970297029695, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Jones", + "probability": 0.0198019801980198, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sonal Shah", + "probability": 0.0198019801980198, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Neera Tanden", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2651,52 +2602,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "64 or fewer", - "probability": 0.055045871559633024, + "probability": 0.08910891089108912, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0.08256880733944953, + "probability": 0.07920792079207922, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.1559633027522936, + "probability": 0.16831683168316836, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.19266055045871558, + "probability": 0.21782178217821788, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.2201834862385321, + "probability": 0.20792079207920797, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.1559633027522936, + "probability": 0.11881188118811883, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.09174311926605505, + "probability": 0.07920792079207922, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.027522935779816512, + "probability": 0.019801980198019806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009900990099009903, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 or more", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009900990099009903, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2710,12 +2661,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2729,52 +2680,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 1M", - "probability": 0.16216216216216214, + "probability": 0.22999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1M to 1.05M", - "probability": 0.2252252252252252, + "probability": 0.27999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.05M to 1.1M", - "probability": 0.18018018018018017, + "probability": 0.15999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.1M to 1.15M", - "probability": 0.14414414414414414, + "probability": 0.10999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.15M to 1.2M", - "probability": 0.09009009009009009, + "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.2M to 1.25M", - "probability": 0.06306306306306306, + "probability": 0.039999999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.25M to 1.3M", - "probability": 0.05405405405405405, + "probability": 0.039999999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.3M to 1.35M", - "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "probability": 0.029999999999999992, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.35M to 1.4M", - "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "probability": 0.029999999999999992, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.4M or more", - "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "probability": 0.029999999999999992, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2788,52 +2739,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.17699115044247787, + "probability": 0.3679245283018869, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 or 51", - "probability": 0.20353982300884954, + "probability": 0.04716981132075473, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52 or 53", - "probability": 0.2654867256637168, + "probability": 0.26415094339622647, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54 or 55", - "probability": 0.15929203539823006, + "probability": 0.17924528301886797, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56 or 57", - "probability": 0.08849557522123894, + "probability": 0.07547169811320756, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or 59", - "probability": 0.04424778761061947, + "probability": 0.028301886792452834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60 or 61", - "probability": 0.026548672566371678, + "probability": 0.009433962264150945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 or 63", - "probability": 0.017699115044247787, + "probability": 0.009433962264150945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "64 or 65", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009433962264150945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 or more", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.009433962264150945, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2847,42 +2798,42 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Rob Bonta", - "probability": 0.2869565217391304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Goodwin Liu", - "probability": 0.26086956521739124, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Adam Schiff", - "probability": 0.23478260869565215, + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Goodwin Liu", + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xavier Becerra", - "probability": 0.06956521739130433, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeff Rosen", - "probability": 0.05217391304347825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Diana Becton", - "probability": 0.043478260869565216, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Darrell Steinberg", - "probability": 0.043478260869565216, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rick Chavez Zbur", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Diana Becton", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Darrell Steinberg", + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2896,52 +2847,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "70 or fewer", - "probability": 0.12380952380952381, + "probability": 0.12820512820512822, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "probability": 0.017094017094017096, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.05714285714285714, + "probability": 0.02564102564102564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.0857142857142857, + "probability": 0.05982905982905984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.09401709401709403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.13333333333333333, + "probability": 0.11111111111111112, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.1619047619047619, + "probability": 0.15384615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "probability": 0.1794871794871795, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 to 94", - "probability": 0.10476190476190476, + "probability": 0.13675213675213677, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "95 or more", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, + "probability": 0.09401709401709403, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2955,12 +2906,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2974,12 +2925,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2993,52 +2944,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.5514018691588785, + "probability": 0.5092592592592592, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrej Babiš", - "probability": 0.11214953271028036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mario Draghi", - "probability": 0.09345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", - "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "probability": 0.12037037037037034, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Rutte", - "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "probability": 0.11111111111111108, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "name": "Mario Draghi", + "probability": 0.0648148148148148, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", + "probability": 0.04629629629629629, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pedro Sánchez", - "probability": 0.037383177570093455, + "probability": 0.04629629629629629, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Boris Johnson", + "probability": 0.03703703703703703, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Viktor Orbán", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.018518518518518514, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.018518518518518514, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3052,62 +3003,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yonhy Lescano", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Keiko Fujimori", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.45945945945945943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Verónika Mendoza", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.2162162162162162, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "George Forsyth", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Julio Guzmán", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ollanta Humala", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Daniel Urresti", - "probability": 0.02, + "name": "Keiko Fujimori", + "probability": 0.1081081081081081, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.05405405405405405, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "George Forsyth", + "probability": 0.04504504504504504, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Julio Guzmán", + "probability": 0.04504504504504504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hernando de Soto", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.018018018018018018, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Daniel Urresti", + "probability": 0.018018018018018018, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "César Acuña", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Beingolea", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ollanta Humala", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Salaverry", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3121,115 +3072,56 @@ "options": [ { "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.24545454545454545, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.03636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tai be confirmed to position of United States Trade Representative in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Cecilia Rouse as CEA Chair by 3/31?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7147/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Cecilia-Rouse-as-CEA-Chair-by-3-31", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "options": [ - { - "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.01818181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.027272727272727268, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "74 to 76", "probability": 0.07272727272727272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.10909090909090907, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.14545454545454545, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.1727272727272727, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.1909090909090909, + "probability": 0.11818181818181818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.14545454545454545, + "probability": 0.21818181818181814, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.09999999999999999, + "probability": 0.2727272727272727, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/01/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Cecilia Rouse to the position of Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Rouse to the position of Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Rouse be confirmed to position of Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Rouse to the position of Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/01/2021 8:05 PM (ET)\nNOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE.\nOffers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions.\n", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tai be confirmed to position of United States Trade Representative in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3239,38 +3131,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Deb Haaland", - "probability": 0.9514563106796116, + "probability": 0.9519230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Udall", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Bullock", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Martin Heinrich", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raúl Grijalva", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carol Moseley-Braun", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Secretary of the Interior following launch of this market on March 1, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Secretary of the Interior by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3 }, + { + "title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by March 16?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7149/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-March-16", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "11 or 12", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "13 or 14", + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "15 or 16", + "probability": 0.44859813084112143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "17 or 18", + "probability": 0.42990654205607476, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "19 or 20", + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "21 or 22", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "23 or more", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of nominees of the current administration who will have been confirmed to their respective positions in the U.S. Cabinet by the End Date listed below.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –\nThe Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --\nAnd the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --\nAnd the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "stars": 3 + }, { "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Isabel Guzman as SBA Administrator by 3/31?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7150/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Isabel-Guzman-as-SBA-Administrator-by-3-31", @@ -3278,52 +3214,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "61 or fewer", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.24778761061946902, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.035398230088495575, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.08849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.12389380530973451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.1327433628318584, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.12389380530973451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.09734513274336282, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.07964601769911503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.035398230088495575, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 or more", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.035398230088495575, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3331,62 +3267,233 @@ "stars": 3 }, { - "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary by 3/31?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7152/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary-by-3-31", + "title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Susan Wright", + "probability": 0.5754716981132075, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jana Sanchez", + "probability": 0.20754716981132074, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jake Ellzey", + "probability": 0.14150943396226415, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Brian Harrison", + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Katrina Pierson", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sery Kim", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lydia Bean", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Shawn Lassiter", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Marcia Fudge as HUD Secretary by 3/31?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7153/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marcia-Fudge-as-HUD-Secretary-by-3-31", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ { "name": "61 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.35514018691588783, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.102803738317757, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.14953271028037382, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.12149532710280374, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.12149532710280374, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.08411214953271028, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "probability": 0.037383177570093455, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.3831775700934579, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.48598130841121495, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 or more", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/01/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Gina Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Raimondo be confirmed to position of Secretary of Commerce in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"61 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"86 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/01/2021 8:04 PM (ET)\nNOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE.\nOffers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions.\n", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Rep. Fudge be confirmed to position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"61 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"86 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lorena González", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Colleen Echohawk", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lance Randall", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bruce Harrell", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jenny Durkan", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Nicholas Burns", + "probability": 0.66, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Claire McCaskill", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Charlene Barshefsky", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rahm Emanuel", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Shambaugh", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "How many Yea votes in the Senate for the American Rescue Plan?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7156/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-Senate-for-the-American-Rescue-Plan", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "49 or fewer", + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "50", + "probability": 0.6857142857142856, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "51", + "probability": 0.22857142857142856, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "52", + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "53", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "54", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "55", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "56 or more", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Senate who, before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of the American Rescue Plan.\nShould more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"56 or more\" shall resolve as Yes. \nAny vote cast by the Vice President shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nVotes taken in committee, or on cloture, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 AM (ET)\n", "stars": 3 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/smarkets-questions.csv b/data/smarkets-questions.csv index 73be45d..8b2fc84 100644 --- a/data/smarkets-questions.csv +++ b/data/smarkets-questions.csv @@ -1,96 +1,122 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" -"Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.03793477189870924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.0009853187506158245,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.025913883141196182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0.027391861267119916,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.10946891319341809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.06572076066607549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0.06355305941472067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.0533057444083161,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.005517785003448617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.08207705192629818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0.0533057444083161,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.03941275002463298,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.03941275002463298,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.014090058133806288,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobias Ellwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.030741945019213724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.02345058626465662,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.009853187506158245,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Philip Hammond"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.31786382894866494,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request",,2 +"Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.03746229444390386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.0009730466089325679,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.025591125814926532,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0.027050695728325382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.10810547825240828,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.06490220881580228,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0.06276150627615062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.05264182154325192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.00544906101002238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.0810547825240829,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0.05264182154325192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.07482728422691447,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.03892186435730271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.013914566507735718,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobias Ellwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.030359054198696115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.023158509292595112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.009730466089325677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Philip Hammond"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2904544127663715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request",,2 "Gender of next Conservative leader","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Male"",""probability"":0.7736942156241513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Female"",""probability"":0.22630578437584864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?",,2 -"Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel","https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.005865359362689312,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.018996760920948964,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.05646502670051651,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.3709183226823076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.06486912369780269,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Nahles"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Gunther"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.03501707082202574,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wolfgang Schäuble"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julia Klockner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heiko Maas"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malu Dreyer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Altmaier"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralf Stegner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ursula Von der Leyen"",""probability"":0.027313315241180077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sahra Wagenknecht"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Sonneborn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.38396218156351225,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.033703930666199776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.0028889083428171236,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel","https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.00588493631971893,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.019060166886253845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.05665349143610014,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.3721563460693896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.06508563899868249,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Nahles"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Gunther"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.03513394817742645,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wolfgang Schäuble"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julia Klockner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heiko Maas"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malu Dreyer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Altmaier"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralf Stegner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ursula Von der Leyen"",""probability"":0.027404479578392628,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sahra Wagenknecht"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Sonneborn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.38190601668862545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.03381642512077295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.0028985507246376816,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon","https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Derek Mackay"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Humza Yousaf"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Hosie"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mhairi Black"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Shona Robison"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Swinney"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keith Brown"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Joanna Cherry"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angus Robertson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alex Salmond"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Michael Matheson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tommy Sheppard"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Angela Constance"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Roseanna Cunningham"",""probability"":null}]","",,2 -"Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","[{""probability"":0.009962143853357242,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00009962143853357243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.10828850368599323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.881649731022116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","[{""probability"":0.01002004008016032,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.0001002004008016032,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.08717434869739478,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.9027054108216434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05664798777381558,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9433520122261844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ",,2 -"Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Jeremy Corbyn"",""probability"":0.015382248884786958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nigel Farage"",""probability"":0.008075680664513153,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jo Swinson"",""probability"":0.0915243808644824,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keir Starmer"",""probability"":0.16720504537763423,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.010998307952622674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.025611444393170285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.04276265189970774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.025611444393170285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.01668974003999385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.022611905860636827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Grieve"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.059144746962005855,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.02138132594985387,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Watson"",""probability"":0.01668974003999385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.029610829103214893,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.06991232118135672,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.0384556222119674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.03660975234579296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.03660975234579296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ken Clarke"",""probability"":0.04660821412090448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harriet Harman"",""probability"":0.007691124442393479,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Beckett"",""probability"":0.05699123211813568,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.1538224888478696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request",,2 +"Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Jeremy Corbyn"",""probability"":0.014930944382232178,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nigel Farage"",""probability"":0.007838745800671893,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jo Swinson"",""probability"":0.08883911907428146,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keir Starmer"",""probability"":0.1588652482269504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.010675625233296007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.024860022396416576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.04150802538260545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.024860022396416576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.01620007465472191,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.021948488241881302,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Grieve"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.05740948114968272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.020754012691302726,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Watson"",""probability"":0.01620007465472191,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.028742067935796943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.06786114221724525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.037327360955580445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.03553564762971258,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.03553564762971258,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ken Clarke"",""probability"":0.04524076147816349,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harriet Harman"",""probability"":0.007465472191116089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Beckett"",""probability"":0.055319148936170216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.1820828667413214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request",,2 "NY-22 Congressional District Winner","https://smarkets.com/event/32279294/politics/us/2020-house-representatives-results/new-york-22-congressional-district-race","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6297324817180413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.3702675182819587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win in New York's 22nd Congressional District in the 2020 House of Representatives Election? Contracts to be added on request.",,2 -"Year of next General Election","https://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2020"",""probability"":0.04608719697667988,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.06581251728269887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.09217439395335976,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.16462346760070054,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024 or later"",""probability"":0.6313024241865609,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 -"Year of next Scottish referendum","https://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendum","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2020"",""probability"":0.07764344119085889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.04822139911943532,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.17471521420085262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.09986721643720735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2729750506674121,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.3265776783842337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 -"Next Cabinet Member to leave","https://smarkets.com/event/41589478/politics/uk/cabinet/next-cabinet-member-to-leave","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.07564130673098006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.05481254110940583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.04768691076518307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.1043630782723087,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Buckland"",""probability"":0.08770006577504934,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ben Wallace"",""probability"":0.13045384784038588,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt Hancock"",""probability"":0.06851567638675729,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alok Sharma"",""probability"":0.07827230870423152,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Truss"",""probability"":0.05930716948037711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thérèse Coffey"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.16125849594387198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Eustice"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Jenrick"",""probability"":0.08430168822626617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Grant Shapps"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Lewis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alister Jack"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Simon Hart"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Baroness Evans of Bowes Park"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Oliver Dowden"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Milling"",""probability"":0.04768691076518307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 -"Party to get the most seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4190312410432789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.527849431546766,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.05311932740995509,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request.",,2 -"USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25555450505814503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.744445494941855,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"Year of next General Election","https://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2020"",""probability"":0.04392129304286718,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.06271960646521434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.08784258608573436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.18692902319044274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024 or later"",""probability"":0.6185874912157414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"Year of next Scottish referendum","https://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendum","Smarkets","[{""probability"":0.07764344119085889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.04822139911943532,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.17471521420085262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.09986721643720735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2729750506674121,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.3265776783842337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"Next Cabinet Member to leave","https://smarkets.com/event/41589478/politics/uk/cabinet/next-cabinet-member-to-leave","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.043574075929079435,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.05008514474606832,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.07152158669738556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.09536211559651409,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Buckland"",""probability"":0.08013623159370932,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ben Wallace"",""probability"":0.11920264449564262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt Hancock"",""probability"":0.13182410097165184,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alok Sharma"",""probability"":0.07703095261945309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Truss"",""probability"":0.05419212661524593,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thérèse Coffey"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.15646599218671745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Eustice"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Jenrick"",""probability"":0.07703095261945309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Grant Shapps"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Lewis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alister Jack"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Simon Hart"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Baroness Evans of Bowes Park"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Oliver Dowden"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Milling"",""probability"":0.043574075929079435,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"Party to get the most seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4026069395997797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.5463557921791813,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.0510372682210391,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request.",,2 +"USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31289404108196056,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6871059589180395,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Year of next General Election in Hungary","https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2022 or earlier"",""probability"":0.3964413291096583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?",,2 -"Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.8492647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.10473227752639516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.032522624434389136,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.013480392156862742,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.851190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.10270219198790626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.03259637188208617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.013510959939531365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Winner of the 2022 French presidential election","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""François Baroin"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olivier Faure"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Marie Bigard"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean Lassalle"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joachim Son-Forget"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernard Cazeneuve"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolas Dupont-Aignan"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Arnaud Montebourg"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ségolène Royal"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florian Philippot"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Edouard Philippe"",""probability"":null}]","Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?",,2 "Macron first round vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Under 25%"",""probability"":0.5155602574274882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25% or over"",""probability"":0.48443974257251166,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?",,2 -"Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anneliese Dodds"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rosena Allin-Khan"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Burnham"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Clive Lewis"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ian Lavery"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Jarvis"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nick Thomas-Symonds"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sam Tarry"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Louise Haigh"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burgon"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dawn Butler"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Carden"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jess Phillips"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Lammy"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Trickett"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Barry Gardiner"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seema Malhotra"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Ashworth"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Miliband"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hilary Benn"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stella Creasy"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rachel Reeves"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laura Pidcock"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlotte Nichols"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kate Osborne"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Greenwood"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zarah Sultana"",""probability"":null}]","Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor? +"Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0.241490404818602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.10379604986692814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.10771816781061774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.038941028155203804,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anneliese Dodds"",""probability"":0.07185880375402717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rosena Allin-Khan"",""probability"":0.07003782042302843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Burnham"",""probability"":0.14595881776159125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.06093290376803474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Clive Lewis"",""probability"":0.07367978708502591,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0.038941028155203804,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ian Lavery"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Jarvis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nick Thomas-Symonds"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sam Tarry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Louise Haigh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burgon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dawn Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Carden"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jess Phillips"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Lammy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Trickett"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Barry Gardiner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seema Malhotra"",""probability"":0.04664518840173694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Ashworth"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Miliband"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hilary Benn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stella Creasy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rachel Reeves"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laura Pidcock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlotte Nichols"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kate Osborne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Greenwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zarah Sultana"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wes Streeting"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim McMahon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alison McGovern"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bridget Phillipson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor? Other candidates available on request.",,2 "Gender of the next Labour leader","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Female"",""probability"":0.5508474576271186,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Male"",""probability"":0.4491525423728813,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first?",,2 "Year of next General Election to take place in Israel","https://smarkets.com/event/41634554/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2020"",""probability"":0.03763359927743489,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.7307692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.23159716995333432,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 -"First Minister to leave the Cabinet?","https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.40996613449443636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt Hancock"",""probability"":0.5900338655055636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ",,2 -"Keir Starmer exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2023 or earlier"",""probability"":0.25863145686501915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.3431171380140958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.39825140512088497,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?",,2 -"2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.9260800634165673,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.0215021799445105,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.00009908838684106222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siobhan Benita"",""probability"":0.00009908838684106222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.05212049147839872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.00009908838684106222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 -"Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round","https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29048731931100147,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7095126806889985,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",,2 -"2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Andy Street"",""probability"":0.6161293542269688,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liam Byrne"",""probability"":0.38387064577303126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beverley Nielsen"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Downs"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 -"2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Ben Houchen"",""probability"":0.724179585262734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jessie Joe Jacobs"",""probability"":0.27582041473726593,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 -"Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.9096499526963103,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.02052980132450331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.017218543046357615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.05260170293282876,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",,2 -"Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)","https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5717348426378527,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.3199554069119287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.08575593859874796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.022553811851470713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",,2 -"Local elections highest vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5961538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.40384615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections?",,2 +"First Minister to leave the Cabinet?","https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.4085036637099884,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt Hancock"",""probability"":0.5914963362900116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ",,2 +"Keir Starmer exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2023 or earlier"",""probability"":0.3862793572311496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2971260815822003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.3165945611866502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?",,2 +"2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.9397138628515046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.024666995559940796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.0000986679822397632,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.0000986679822397632,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.035224469659595456,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.0000986679822397632,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.0000986679822397632,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 +"Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round","https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22508980903762524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7749101909623747,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",,2 +"2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Andy Street"",""probability"":0.6451702186548575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liam Byrne"",""probability"":0.3548297813451425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beverley Nielsen"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Downs"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 +"2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Ben Houchen"",""probability"":0.7338323353293413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jessie Joe Jacobs"",""probability"":0.26616766467065867,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 +"Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.9126792031279092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.016942841184137032,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.01861850679575498,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.05175944889219884,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",,2 +"Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)","https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5910243407707911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.26411426639621366,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.08451656524678837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.06034482758620689,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",,2 +"Local elections highest vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5753522382735866,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.42464776172641344,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections?",,2 "Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkar","https://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Simon Coveney"",""probability"":0.6757322175732217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paschal Donohoe"",""probability"":0.101115760111576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Helen McEntee"",""probability"":0.12633658763365874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josepha Madigan"",""probability"":0.09681543468154347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Simon Harris"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Humphreys"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eoghan Murphy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charles Flanagan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sean Kyne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Bruton"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kehoe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Heydon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe McHugh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Ring"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Creed"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colm Brophy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request.",,2 "Irish reunification referendum before 2023","https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17627357659086904,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8237264234091309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022?",,2 "Next Scottish First Minister","https://smarkets.com/event/41696009/politics/uk/scotland/next-scottish-first-minister","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Kate Forbes"",""probability"":0.4077608142493639,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angus Robertson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Swinney"",""probability"":0.4077608142493639,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keith Brown"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Humza Yousaf"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shirley-Anne Somerville"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Russell"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.18447837150127228,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shona Robison"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Leonard"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mhairi Black"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Matheson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joanna Cherry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jackson Carlaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Hosie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon? Other contracts available on request.",,2 "French Presidential election to happen before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41709221/politics/europe/france/early-presidential-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1252665739452944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8747334260547056,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Will Keir Starmer face a leadership challenge?","https://smarkets.com/event/41730234/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-to-face-leadership-challenge","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17219113215669393,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8278088678433061,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will any candidate receive the nominations of at least 20% of Labour MPs to challenge Keir Starmer for the party leadership before the next UK general election?",,2 -"UK to begin imports of chlorinated chicken","https://smarkets.com/event/41731856/politics/uk/brexit/chlorinated-chicken","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06568897036358082,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9343110296364192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the UK begin importing chlorine-washed chicken products following the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020, but on or before 30 June 2021?",,2 -"Washington, D.C. to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736144/politics/us/51st-state/washington-d-c-to-become-a-state-by-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16320736244370473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8367926375562953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Washington, D.C. become a state before 1 January 2022?",,2 -"Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12472560367192177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8752743963280782,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022?",,2 +"UK to begin imports of chlorinated chicken","https://smarkets.com/event/41731856/politics/uk/brexit/chlorinated-chicken","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.036243302867948315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9637566971320517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the UK begin importing chlorine-washed chicken products following the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020, but on or before 30 June 2021?",,2 +"Washington, D.C. to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736144/politics/us/51st-state/washington-d-c-to-become-a-state-by-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13811678517560871,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8618832148243913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Washington, D.C. become a state before 1 January 2022?",,2 +"Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16540927951716333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8345907204828368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022?",,2 "Next Fianna Fáil leader","https://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martin","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Jim O'Callaghan"",""probability"":0.39789438502673796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael McGrath"",""probability"":0.3410762032085562,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dara Calleary"",""probability"":0.2610294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas Byrne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Niall Collins"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Lawless"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul McAuliffe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darragh O'Brien"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norma Foley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Troy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McGuinness"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jack Chambers"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Browne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Rabbitte"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seán Ó Fearghail"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eamon O'Cuiv"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request.",,2 "Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022)","https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref","Smarkets","[{""name"":""For independence"",""probability"":0.5534059668058242,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Against independence"",""probability"":0.4465940331941757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 -"Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?","https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8309732748304747,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16902672516952533,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?","https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7590129169076537,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24098708309234626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Next general election overall majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""No overall majority"",""probability"":0.4391107613614007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative majority"",""probability"":0.30739720637418844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour majority"",""probability"":0.24906551249262243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat majority"",""probability"":0.004426519771788313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.",,2 "Date of next Japanese general election","https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Before 22 October 2021"",""probability"":0.5904173106646059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22 October 2021 or later"",""probability"":0.4095826893353941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When will the next Japanese general election take place?",,2 "Belarus to have a General Election in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4664641271325076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5335358728674924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 -"Joe Biden to serve full term","https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5526118000751598,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44738819992484025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.",,2 +"Joe Biden to serve full term","https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5408351990655116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45916480093448847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.",,2 "2024 Democratic presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.38062883026911803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.3976818545163869,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.05555555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.02664535038635758,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0.049293898214761524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06661337596589395,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.022248867572608577,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Klobuchar"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Garcetti"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cory Booker"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gretchen Whitmer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0.001332267519317879,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",,2 -"2024 Republican presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.2906196048340687,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.03203529637444849,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.045655093036639165,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.06618070209092652,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.04162670247458277,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.07999232687511988,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.2085171686169192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.03203529637444849,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.08344523307116822,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.11989257625167848,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Trump"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",,2 -"2024 US presidential winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.16298709132585354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.24128362890577873,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.13403305585716008,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.027385691880805887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.012064181445288938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.04825672578115575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.07093738689829895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.024128362890577876,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.08046809024007721,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.07781397032211365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06032090722644468,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.06032090722644468,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Candace Owens"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.",,2 +"2024 Republican presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.3150432440096413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.02367786757408195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.03374450588402098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.0708918190840777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.03076704948248972,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.059123777116120796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.16489437118956474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.02835672763363108,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.06167588260314759,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.08861477385509713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Trump"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.01417836381681554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.1090316177513115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",,2 +"2024 US presidential winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.15578874538745385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.22613007380073796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.15175276752767525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.026176199261992616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.011531365313653135,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.04439575645756457,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06780442804428043,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.020987084870848705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.07691420664206641,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.07437730627306272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.05765682656826567,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.028828413284132836,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.05765682656826567,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Candace Owens"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.",,2 "Will the Brexit/Reform Party reach 10% in a YouGov poll?","https://smarkets.com/event/41944336/politics/uk/nigel-farage/brexit-reform-party-to-poll-10","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12087805821487284,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8791219417851271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Brexit Party or Reform Party reach 10% in a UK voting intention poll conducted by YouGov by 23 March 2021?",,2 -"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8203969519758992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.1303384724437356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.049264575580365046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",,2 +"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8727662616154396,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.0704584907587052,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.056775247625855195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",,2 "Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13046653884780424,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8695334611521957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",,2 "Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election","https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4087618689480116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democrat"",""probability"":0.5912381310519883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts available on request.",,2 "London Assembly: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41771041084962107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5822895891503789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?",,2 -"Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on 1st March 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41947815/politics/us/biden-s-first-cabinet/senate-confirmed-treasury-secretary-on-1st-march-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Lael Brainard"",""probability"":0.06041120230137913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Janet Yellen"",""probability"":0.8377189271511972,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roger Ferguson"",""probability"":0.03130552500211524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Mnuchin"",""probability"":0.05643455453084017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bloom Raskin"",""probability"":0.014129791014468228,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raphael Bostic"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gia Raimondo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mellody Hobson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts added on request",,2 +"Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on 1st March 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41947815/politics/us/biden-s-first-cabinet/senate-confirmed-treasury-secretary-on-1st-march-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Lael Brainard"",""probability"":0.060406091370558364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Janet Yellen"",""probability"":0.837648054145516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roger Ferguson"",""probability"":0.031302876480541454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Mnuchin"",""probability"":0.056429780033840936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bloom Raskin"",""probability"":0.014128595600676816,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raphael Bostic"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gia Raimondo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mellody Hobson"",""probability"":0.00008460236886632824,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts added on request",,2 "Senate-confirmed Attorney General on 1st March 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41947823/politics/us/biden-s-first-cabinet/attorney-general","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Doug Jones"",""probability"":0.006960879855213698,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sally Yates"",""probability"":0.2597104273980231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.011624669358206875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Barr"",""probability"":0.004663789502993178,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Klobuchar"",""probability"":0.011624669358206875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Perez"",""probability"":0.009257970207434218,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julian Castro"",""probability"":0.006960879855213698,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Merrick Garland"",""probability"":0.6891967144647082,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts added on request.",,2 "Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on the 15th February 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41947824/politics/us/biden-s-first-cabinet/secretary-of-state","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Susan Rice"",""probability"":0.0781983109164842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Coons"",""probability"":0.09540193931811071,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Antony Blinken"",""probability"":0.7742414763841101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.05215827338129496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""William Burns"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Murphy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts added on request.",,2 -"How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?","https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Fewer than 3"",""probability"":0.10729116368903911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 3"",""probability"":0.33771125060357315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 4"",""probability"":0.5549975857073878,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?",,2 -"2021 Norwegian election: Most votes","https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative (Høyre)"",""probability"":0.49461823074335687,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)"",""probability"":0.24024554322233435,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.17162798520013453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.04675412041708711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.04675412041708711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)",,2 +"How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?","https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Fewer than 3"",""probability"":0.1314345193035579,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 3"",""probability"":0.3309046177138531,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 4"",""probability"":0.5376608629825889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?",,2 +"2021 Norwegian election: Most votes","https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative (Høyre)"",""probability"":0.5181670513806959,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)"",""probability"":0.24425066256305034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.14251517483115328,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.04753355561255022,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.04753355561255022,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)",,2 "2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party","https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.7432820245238717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.17392816766675365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.08278980780937473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.",,2 -"2021 Dutch election: PVV seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41957097/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-pvv-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Fewer than 20"",""probability"":0.37535993418346364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20–24"",""probability"":0.32651172357054714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25 or more"",""probability"":0.29812834224598933,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will PVV win in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,2 -"2021 Dutch election: Government seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41958584/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-government-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Fewer than 65"",""probability"":0.16449558546822984,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65–69"",""probability"":0.2783326096396005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70–74"",""probability"":0.27001013171225935,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or more"",""probability"":0.28716167317991026,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Democrats 66 (D66) and Christian Union (CU) win in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,2 +"2021 Dutch election: PVV seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41957097/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-pvv-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Fewer than 20"",""probability"":0.38286492268793154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20–24"",""probability"":0.37401536516580763,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25 or more"",""probability"":0.24311971214626082,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will PVV win in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,2 +"2021 Dutch election: Government seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41958584/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-government-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Fewer than 65"",""probability"":0.12167883211678833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65–69"",""probability"":0.28072992700729926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70–74"",""probability"":0.2432846715328467,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or more"",""probability"":0.3543065693430657,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Democrats 66 (D66) and Christian Union (CU) win in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,2 "2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party","https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""GroenLinks"",""probability"":0.33217726396917147,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)"",""probability"":0.15539499036608861,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)"",""probability"":0.5124277456647399,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party?",,2 "Brexit Party to control any council","https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.050332192470304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.949667807529696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?",,2 -"Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3273897602841077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6726102397158923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",,2 +"Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1477627471383975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8522372528616025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",,2 "London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""0–2"",""probability"":0.735589201021525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0.26441079897847497,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?",,2 -"Joe Biden's first international visit","https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit","Smarkets","[{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.6994758816736253,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republic of Ireland"",""probability"":0.22208403659944925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.03553344585591188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.02958159367504664,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""China"",""probability"":0.004441680731988985,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ukraine"",""probability"":0.00888336146397797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?",,2 -"Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.03125849415602065,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45–49.9%"",""probability"":0.1887288212376551,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50–54.9%"",""probability"":0.36241732354806555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55–59.9%"",""probability"":0.3212829573253601,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60–64.9%"",""probability"":0.08235933677629789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65% or over"",""probability"":0.013953066956600523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?",,2 -"Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8372011251758087,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16279887482419128,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?",,2 -"Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7583376623376623,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2416623376623377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?",,2 -"Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election","https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labor"",""probability"":0.7427606901725431,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coalition"",""probability"":0.10720180045011252,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.07501875468867217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Any other party"",""probability"":0.07501875468867217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"Joe Biden's first international visit","https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit","Smarkets","[{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.5873178931639895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republic of Ireland"",""probability"":0.23645872245050428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.03735524841240194,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.11393350765782591,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""China"",""probability"":0.015595816212177809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ukraine"",""probability"":0.009338812103100485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?",,2 +"Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.027693048643441964,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45–49.9%"",""probability"":0.22298924385936747,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50–54.9%"",""probability"":0.5460748113661904,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55–59.9%"",""probability"":0.1543586450473591,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60–64.9%"",""probability"":0.03652271632685824,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65% or over"",""probability"":0.01236153475678279,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?",,2 +"Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7920825016633399,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20791749833666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?",,2 +"Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5852332347610417,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4147667652389583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?",,2 +"Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election","https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labor"",""probability"":0.8232995177116248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coalition"",""probability"":0.010394146016963247,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Any other party"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Tracy Brabin"",""probability"":0.8051441932969603,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative Party candidate"",""probability"":0.19485580670303976,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 -"Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.8041970638566154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.19580293614338465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request.",,2 -"Most seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly election","https://smarkets.com/event/42022501/politics/europe/bulgaria/bulgarian-national-assembly-election-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""GERB"",""probability"":0.580894931124516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""BSP"",""probability"":0.38804357612316553,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""ITN"",""probability"":0.031061492752318356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.8055977823482071,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.19440221765179289,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request.",,2 +"Most seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly election","https://smarkets.com/event/42022501/politics/europe/bulgaria/bulgarian-national-assembly-election-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""GERB"",""probability"":0.5904451874010205,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""BSP"",""probability"":0.3792011261657575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""ITN"",""probability"":0.03035368643322189,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.32353451266042316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45.0–49.9%"",""probability"":0.4250780437044745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50% or over"",""probability"":0.2513874436351023,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?",,2 "Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?","https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.724179585262734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27582041473726593,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?",,2 "London elections: In-person voting","https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting","Smarkets","[{""name"":""In-person and postal voting"",""probability"":0.947219512195122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Postal voting only"",""probability"":0.05278048780487805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only?",,2 -"London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8996919522525991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10030804774740085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 -"Next Scottish Labour leader","https://smarkets.com/event/42036626/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-scottish-labour-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Anas Sarwar"",""probability"":0.5537514335727651,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire Baker"",""probability"":0.020824530693547415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gordon Brown"",""probability"":0.023238969034828274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ian Murray"",""probability"":0.07364036940906622,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jackie Baillie"",""probability"":0.07738274883805156,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Kelly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Monica Lennon"",""probability"":0.18289370435202512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rhoda Grant"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tony Blair"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Sweeney"",""probability"":0.043097724391863344,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alistair Darling"",""probability"":0.025170519707852963,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Johnson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be the next permanent leader of the Scottish Labour Party? Candidates added on request.",,2 -"$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days","https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.016748570855480892,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9832514291445191,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency?",,2 -"New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate","https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.5057791948983659,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.1811478676763651,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.09057393383818255,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.04533678756476684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.11857313670785173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.05858907931446791,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",,2 -"Trump to create new political party","https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12945111154829825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8705488884517018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021?",,2 +"London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9544042489227378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.045595751077262256,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days","https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03920031360250882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9607996863974911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency?",,2 +"New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate","https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.4935695913118034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.207106792416881,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.08659617033438125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.04334571782414023,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.11336572354005907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.05601600457273507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",,2 +"Trump to create new political party","https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11602004826434008,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8839799517356599,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021?",,2 "Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""CDU + CSU"",""probability"":0.8866338069005509,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""SPD"",""probability"":0.053735382236397025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.04204117135401566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""AfD"",""probability"":0.01758963950903644,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary","https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "2022 House of Representatives control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-control","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.3759190298863745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6240809701136256,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections?",,2 -"President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment","https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40477636106051407,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5952236389394859,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment","https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41033973412112257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5896602658788773,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "2022 Senate control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-control","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.42413301662707836,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5758669833729216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",,2 "Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandy","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6005369127516779,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39946308724832214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "2022 House and Senate control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-and-senate-control","Smarkets","[{""name"":""D House / D Senate"",""probability"":0.2841289413422582,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""D House / R Senate"",""probability"":0.12585872820151486,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House / D Senate"",""probability"":0.2230051083318654,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House / R Senate"",""probability"":0.36700722212436143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",,2 -"Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42056981/politics/us/dollars/harriet-tubman","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4627465644573245,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5372534355426755,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42056981/politics/us/dollars/harriet-tubman","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5028976732116599,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4971023267883401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "2021 Dutch election: Most seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42057130/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-most-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy)"",""probability"":0.9794242753981601,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""PVV (Party for Freedom)"",""probability"":0.020575724601839946,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,2 "Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure)","https://smarkets.com/event/42058821/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-turnout","Smarkets","[{""name"":""50% and below"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""51-53%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54-56%"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""57%+"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress","https://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congress","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06661340257665035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9333865974233496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?",,2 -"2021 Israeli election: Likud seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""26 or fewer"",""probability"":0.15618714473108875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27–28"",""probability"":0.174901617839965,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29–30"",""probability"":0.2610406646261478,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""31–32"",""probability"":0.23637953651071272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""33 or more"",""probability"":0.17149103629208567,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?",,2 -"2021 Israeli election: Joint List seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067810/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-joint-list-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""8 or fewer"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election?",,2 \ No newline at end of file +"2021 Israeli election: Likud seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""26 or fewer"",""probability"":0.15643338880616622,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27–28"",""probability"":0.20854865551370758,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29–30"",""probability"":0.26145222037312776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""31–32"",""probability"":0.2367522116142594,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""33 or more"",""probability"":0.13681352369273886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?",,2 +"2021 Israeli election: Joint List seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067810/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-joint-list-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""8 or fewer"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election?",,2 +"Next G20 leader to leave","https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yoshihide Suga (Japan)"",""probability"":0.5845854201446856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron (France)"",""probability"":0.2107679465776294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden (United States)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson (United Kingdom)"",""probability"":0.20464663327768506,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau (Canada)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin (Russia)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping (China)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which of the listed leaders of G20 countries will be the next to leave their position?",,2 +"Year of next Canadian federal election","https://smarkets.com/event/42093782/politics/world/canada/year-of-next-canadian-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023 or later"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When will the next Canadian federal election take place?",,2 +"Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliament","https://smarkets.com/event/42093783/politics/uk/scotland/alliance-4-unity-to-win-a-seat-in-the-scottish-parliament","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11546469808820746,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8845353019117925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Brian Rose vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Less than 2.0%"",""probability"":0.33803622497616775,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2.0% or more"",""probability"":0.6619637750238322,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",,2 +"Aberdeenshire West","https://smarkets.com/event/42096476/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-west","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5941818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.4058181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Aberdeenshire West at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Ayr","https://smarkets.com/event/42096491/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/ayr","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6379892345588906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.36201076544110933,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Ayr at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Dumbarton","https://smarkets.com/event/42096506/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumbarton","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6795300497062811,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.32046995029371894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumbarton at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Dumfriesshire","https://smarkets.com/event/42096507/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumfriesshire","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5926263916773133,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.40737360832268665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumfriesshire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"East Lothian","https://smarkets.com/event/42096508/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/east-lothian","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6236568930977964,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.3034966308504826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.072846476051721,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of East Lothian at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Eastwood","https://smarkets.com/event/42096509/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/eastwood","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.4389185278958314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.4389185278958314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.1221629442083371,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Eastwood at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Edinburgh Central","https://smarkets.com/event/42096534/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-central","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6115724618269489,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.15947852486829184,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.1144745066523797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Green"",""probability"":0.1144745066523797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Central at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Edinburgh Southern","https://smarkets.com/event/42096558/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-southern","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5527840059790732,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.33604260089686094,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.11117339312406577,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Southern at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Edinburgh Western","https://smarkets.com/event/42096565/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-western","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Western at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Galloway and West Dumfries","https://smarkets.com/event/42096580/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/galloway-and-west-dumfries","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Galloway and West Dumfries at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Glasgow Kelvin","https://smarkets.com/event/42096591/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-kelvin","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.7601773113804958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.07535733671069297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Green"",""probability"":0.16446535190881129,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Kelvin at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"North East Fife","https://smarkets.com/event/42096593/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/north-east-fife","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.32412084246640616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0.6758791575335938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of North East Fife at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour)","https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.855316219140356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.14468378085964398,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request.",,2 +"2021 Senedd election: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-labour-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32688113413304254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6731188658669575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election?",,2 +"Nicola Sturgeon exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.38717096856631744,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.6128290314336826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?",,2 +"Aberdeen South and North Kincardine","https://smarkets.com/event/42104039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-south-and-north-kincardine","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Aberdeen South and North Kincardine at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Aberdeenshire East","https://smarkets.com/event/42104040/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-east","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Aberdeenshire East at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Angus North and Mearns","https://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearns","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Banffshire and Buchan Coast","https://smarkets.com/event/42104042/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/banffshire-and-buchan-coast","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Banffshire and Buchan Coast at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Edinburgh Pentlands","https://smarkets.com/event/42104043/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-pentlands","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Edinburgh Pentlands at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Moray","https://smarkets.com/event/42104044/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/moray","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6450212178032172,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.3549787821967828,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Moray at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Perthshire North","https://smarkets.com/event/42104069/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-north","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Perthshire North at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 +"Perthshire South and Kinross-shire","https://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shire","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/smarkets-questions.json b/data/smarkets-questions.json index 8896934..17482c6 100644 --- a/data/smarkets-questions.json +++ b/data/smarkets-questions.json @@ -6,27 +6,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sajid Javid", - "probability": 0.03793477189870924, + "probability": 0.03746229444390386, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rory Stewart", - "probability": 0.0009853187506158245, + "probability": 0.0009730466089325679, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", - "probability": 0.025913883141196182, + "probability": 0.025591125814926532, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Penny Mordaunt", - "probability": 0.027391861267119916, + "probability": 0.027050695728325382, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeremy Hunt", - "probability": 0.10946891319341809, + "probability": 0.10810547825240828, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -36,22 +36,22 @@ }, { "name": "Dominic Raab", - "probability": 0.06572076066607549, + "probability": 0.06490220881580228, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Tugendhat", - "probability": 0.06355305941472067, + "probability": 0.06276150627615062, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.0533057444083161, + "probability": 0.05264182154325192, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amber Rudd", - "probability": 0.005517785003448617, + "probability": 0.00544906101002238, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61,27 +61,27 @@ }, { "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.08207705192629818, + "probability": 0.0810547825240829, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matthew Hancock", - "probability": 0.0533057444083161, + "probability": 0.05264182154325192, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Truss", - "probability": 0.03941275002463298, + "probability": 0.07482728422691447, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gavin Williamson", - "probability": 0.03941275002463298, + "probability": 0.03892186435730271, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Leadsom", - "probability": 0.014090058133806288, + "probability": 0.013914566507735718, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -96,17 +96,17 @@ }, { "name": "Steve Baker", - "probability": 0.030741945019213724, + "probability": 0.030359054198696115, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ruth Davidson", - "probability": 0.02345058626465662, + "probability": 0.023158509292595112, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Esther McVey", - "probability": 0.009853187506158245, + "probability": 0.009730466089325677, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -116,7 +116,7 @@ }, { "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.31786382894866494, + "probability": 0.2904544127663715, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -149,27 +149,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.005865359362689312, + "probability": 0.00588493631971893, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.018996760920948964, + "probability": 0.019060166886253845, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.05646502670051651, + "probability": 0.05665349143610014, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.3709183226823076, + "probability": 0.3721563460693896, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.06486912369780269, + "probability": 0.06508563899868249, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -189,7 +189,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.03501707082202574, + "probability": 0.03513394817742645, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -224,7 +224,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ursula Von der Leyen", - "probability": 0.027313315241180077, + "probability": 0.027404479578392628, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -239,17 +239,17 @@ }, { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.38396218156351225, + "probability": 0.38190601668862545, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.033703930666199776, + "probability": 0.03381642512077295, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.0028889083428171236, + "probability": 0.0028985507246376816, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -340,21 +340,21 @@ "platform": "Smarkets", "options": [ { - "probability": 0.009962143853357242, + "probability": 0.01002004008016032, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "probability": 0.00009962143853357243, + "probability": 0.0001002004008016032, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.10828850368599323, + "probability": 0.08717434869739478, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022 or later", - "probability": 0.881649731022116, + "probability": 0.9027054108216434, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -387,32 +387,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jeremy Corbyn", - "probability": 0.015382248884786958, + "probability": 0.014930944382232178, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nigel Farage", - "probability": 0.008075680664513153, + "probability": 0.007838745800671893, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jo Swinson", - "probability": 0.0915243808644824, + "probability": 0.08883911907428146, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keir Starmer", - "probability": 0.16720504537763423, + "probability": 0.1588652482269504, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", - "probability": 0.010998307952622674, + "probability": 0.010675625233296007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sajid Javid", - "probability": 0.025611444393170285, + "probability": 0.024860022396416576, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -422,7 +422,7 @@ }, { "name": "Dominic Raab", - "probability": 0.04276265189970774, + "probability": 0.04150802538260545, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -432,17 +432,17 @@ }, { "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", - "probability": 0.025611444393170285, + "probability": 0.024860022396416576, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rory Stewart", - "probability": 0.01668974003999385, + "probability": 0.01620007465472191, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amber Rudd", - "probability": 0.022611905860636827, + "probability": 0.021948488241881302, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -457,7 +457,7 @@ }, { "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.059144746962005855, + "probability": 0.05740948114968272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -467,17 +467,17 @@ }, { "name": "Ruth Davidson", - "probability": 0.02138132594985387, + "probability": 0.020754012691302726, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Watson", - "probability": 0.01668974003999385, + "probability": 0.01620007465472191, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yvette Cooper", - "probability": 0.029610829103214893, + "probability": 0.028742067935796943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -497,7 +497,7 @@ }, { "name": "Jeremy Hunt", - "probability": 0.06991232118135672, + "probability": 0.06786114221724525, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -507,17 +507,17 @@ }, { "name": "Lisa Nandy", - "probability": 0.0384556222119674, + "probability": 0.037327360955580445, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Truss", - "probability": 0.03660975234579296, + "probability": 0.03553564762971258, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.03660975234579296, + "probability": 0.03553564762971258, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -527,22 +527,22 @@ }, { "name": "Ken Clarke", - "probability": 0.04660821412090448, + "probability": 0.04524076147816349, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Harriet Harman", - "probability": 0.007691124442393479, + "probability": 0.007465472191116089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Margaret Beckett", - "probability": 0.05699123211813568, + "probability": 0.055319148936170216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.1538224888478696, + "probability": 0.1820828667413214, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -580,27 +580,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2020", - "probability": 0.04608719697667988, + "probability": 0.04392129304286718, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.06581251728269887, + "probability": 0.06271960646521434, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022", - "probability": 0.09217439395335976, + "probability": 0.08784258608573436, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2023", - "probability": 0.16462346760070054, + "probability": 0.18692902319044274, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024 or later", - "probability": 0.6313024241865609, + "probability": 0.6185874912157414, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -613,7 +613,6 @@ "platform": "Smarkets", "options": [ { - "name": "2020", "probability": 0.07764344119085889, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -653,12 +652,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.07564130673098006, + "probability": 0.043574075929079435, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.05481254110940583, + "probability": 0.05008514474606832, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -668,37 +667,37 @@ }, { "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.04768691076518307, + "probability": 0.07152158669738556, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.1043630782723087, + "probability": 0.09536211559651409, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Buckland", - "probability": 0.08770006577504934, + "probability": 0.08013623159370932, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ben Wallace", - "probability": 0.13045384784038588, + "probability": 0.11920264449564262, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matt Hancock", - "probability": 0.06851567638675729, + "probability": 0.13182410097165184, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alok Sharma", - "probability": 0.07827230870423152, + "probability": 0.07703095261945309, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Elizabeth Truss", - "probability": 0.05930716948037711, + "probability": 0.05419212661524593, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -708,7 +707,7 @@ }, { "name": "Gavin Williamson", - "probability": 0.16125849594387198, + "probability": 0.15646599218671745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -718,7 +717,7 @@ }, { "name": "Robert Jenrick", - "probability": 0.08430168822626617, + "probability": 0.07703095261945309, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -753,7 +752,7 @@ }, { "name": "Amanda Milling", - "probability": 0.04768691076518307, + "probability": 0.043574075929079435, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -767,17 +766,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.4190312410432789, + "probability": 0.4026069395997797, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.527849431546766, + "probability": 0.5463557921791813, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.05311932740995509, + "probability": 0.0510372682210391, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -791,12 +790,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25555450505814503, + "probability": 0.31289404108196056, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.744445494941855, + "probability": 0.6871059589180395, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -839,22 +838,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.8492647058823529, + "probability": 0.851190476190476, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.10473227752639516, + "probability": 0.10270219198790626, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.032522624434389136, + "probability": 0.03259637188208617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.013480392156862742, + "probability": 0.013510959939531365, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -988,172 +987,193 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Rayner", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.241490404818602, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lisa Nandy", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.10379604986692814, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.10771816781061774, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.038941028155203804, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anneliese Dodds", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.07185880375402717, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rosena Allin-Khan", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.07003782042302843, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andy Burnham", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.14595881776159125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yvette Cooper", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.06093290376803474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Clive Lewis", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.07367978708502591, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John McDonnell", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.038941028155203804, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ian Lavery", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Jarvis", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emily Thornberry", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nick Thomas-Symonds", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sam Tarry", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Louise Haigh", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Burgon", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dawn Butler", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Carden", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jess Phillips", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Lammy", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Trickett", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Barry Gardiner", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Seema Malhotra", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.04664518840173694, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jonathan Ashworth", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ed Miliband", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hilary Benn", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stella Creasy", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rachel Reeves", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laura Pidcock", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlotte Nichols", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kate Osborne", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Margaret Greenwood", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zarah Sultana", - "probability": null + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Wes Streeting", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim McMahon", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alison McGovern", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bridget Phillipson", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?\r\n\r\nOther candidates available on request.", @@ -1209,12 +1229,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Dominic Raab", - "probability": 0.40996613449443636, + "probability": 0.4085036637099884, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matt Hancock", - "probability": 0.5900338655055636, + "probability": 0.5914963362900116, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1228,17 +1248,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2023 or earlier", - "probability": 0.25863145686501915, + "probability": 0.3862793572311496, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024", - "probability": 0.3431171380140958, + "probability": 0.2971260815822003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2025 or later", - "probability": 0.39825140512088497, + "probability": 0.3165945611866502, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1252,32 +1272,36 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.9260800634165673, + "probability": 0.9397138628515046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.0215021799445105, + "probability": 0.024666995559940796, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.00009908838684106222, + "probability": 0.0000986679822397632, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Siobhan Benita", - "probability": 0.00009908838684106222, + "probability": 0.0000986679822397632, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.05212049147839872, + "probability": 0.035224469659595456, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.00009908838684106222, + "probability": 0.0000986679822397632, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Luisa Porritt", + "probability": 0.0000986679822397632, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1291,12 +1315,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29048731931100147, + "probability": 0.22508980903762524, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7095126806889985, + "probability": 0.7749101909623747, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1310,12 +1334,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andy Street", - "probability": 0.6161293542269688, + "probability": 0.6451702186548575, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liam Byrne", - "probability": 0.38387064577303126, + "probability": 0.3548297813451425, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1339,12 +1363,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Ben Houchen", - "probability": 0.724179585262734, + "probability": 0.7338323353293413, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jessie Joe Jacobs", - "probability": 0.27582041473726593, + "probability": 0.26616766467065867, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1358,22 +1382,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.9096499526963103, + "probability": 0.9126792031279092, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.02052980132450331, + "probability": 0.016942841184137032, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.017218543046357615, + "probability": 0.01861850679575498, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.05260170293282876, + "probability": 0.05175944889219884, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1387,22 +1411,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5717348426378527, + "probability": 0.5910243407707911, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.3199554069119287, + "probability": 0.26411426639621366, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.08575593859874796, + "probability": 0.08451656524678837, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.022553811851470713, + "probability": 0.06034482758620689, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1416,12 +1440,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5961538461538461, + "probability": 0.5753522382735866, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.40384615384615385, + "probability": 0.42464776172641344, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1665,12 +1689,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06568897036358082, + "probability": 0.036243302867948315, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9343110296364192, + "probability": 0.9637566971320517, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1684,12 +1708,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16320736244370473, + "probability": 0.13811678517560871, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8367926375562953, + "probability": 0.8618832148243913, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1703,12 +1727,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12472560367192177, + "probability": 0.16540927951716333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8752743963280782, + "probability": 0.8345907204828368, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1835,12 +1859,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8309732748304747, + "probability": 0.7590129169076537, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16902672516952533, + "probability": 0.24098708309234626, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1921,12 +1945,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5526118000751598, + "probability": 0.5408351990655116, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44738819992484025, + "probability": 0.45916480093448847, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2039,52 +2063,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.2906196048340687, + "probability": 0.3150432440096413, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.03203529637444849, + "probability": 0.02367786757408195, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.045655093036639165, + "probability": 0.03374450588402098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.06618070209092652, + "probability": 0.0708918190840777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.04162670247458277, + "probability": 0.03076704948248972, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.07999232687511988, + "probability": 0.059123777116120796, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.2085171686169192, + "probability": 0.16489437118956474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.03203529637444849, + "probability": 0.02835672763363108, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.08344523307116822, + "probability": 0.06167588260314759, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ivanka Trump", - "probability": 0.11989257625167848, + "probability": 0.08861477385509713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2114,13 +2138,18 @@ }, { "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01417836381681554, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ron DeSantis", + "probability": 0.1090316177513115, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.", @@ -2133,47 +2162,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.16298709132585354, + "probability": 0.15578874538745385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.24128362890577873, + "probability": 0.22613007380073796, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.13403305585716008, + "probability": 0.15175276752767525, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.027385691880805887, + "probability": 0.026176199261992616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.012064181445288938, + "probability": 0.011531365313653135, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.04825672578115575, + "probability": 0.04439575645756457, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.07093738689829895, + "probability": 0.06780442804428043, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.024128362890577876, + "probability": 0.020987084870848705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.08046809024007721, + "probability": 0.07691420664206641, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2183,7 +2212,7 @@ }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.07781397032211365, + "probability": 0.07437730627306272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2213,7 +2242,7 @@ }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.06032090722644468, + "probability": 0.05765682656826567, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2233,7 +2262,7 @@ }, { "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.028828413284132836, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2253,7 +2282,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ivanka Trump", - "probability": 0.06032090722644468, + "probability": 0.05765682656826567, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2301,7 +2330,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.8203969519758992, + "probability": 0.8727662616154396, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2321,12 +2350,12 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.1303384724437356, + "probability": 0.0704584907587052, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - 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constituency of Edinburgh Western at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Galloway and West Dumfries", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096580/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/galloway-and-west-dumfries", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Galloway and West Dumfries at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Glasgow Kelvin", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096591/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-kelvin", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": 0.7601773113804958, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": 0.07535733671069297, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Scottish Green", + "probability": 0.16446535190881129, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Kelvin at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "North East Fife", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096593/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/north-east-fife", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": 0.32412084246640616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Liberal Democrat", + "probability": 0.6758791575335938, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of North East Fife at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour)", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 0.855316219140356, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Plaid Cymru", + "probability": 0.14468378085964398, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request.", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "2021 Senedd election: Labour majority", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-labour-majority", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32688113413304254, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6731188658669575, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Nicola Sturgeon exit date", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "2021", + "probability": 0.38717096856631744, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "2022 or later", + "probability": 0.6128290314336826, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Aberdeen South and North Kincardine", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-south-and-north-kincardine", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Aberdeen South and North Kincardine at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Aberdeenshire East", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104040/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-east", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Aberdeenshire East at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Angus North and Mearns", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearns", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Banffshire and Buchan Coast", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104042/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/banffshire-and-buchan-coast", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Banffshire and Buchan Coast at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Edinburgh Pentlands", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104043/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-pentlands", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Edinburgh Pentlands at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Moray", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104044/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/moray", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": 0.6450212178032172, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 0.3549787821967828, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Moray at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Perthshire North", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104069/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-north", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Perthshire North at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Perthshire South and Kinross-shire", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shire", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?", + "stars": 2 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/foretold-fetch.js b/src/foretold-fetch.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ec75f15 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/foretold-fetch.js @@ -0,0 +1,94 @@ +/* Imports */ +import fs from 'fs' +import axios from "axios" +import { calculateStars } from "./stars.js" + +/* Definitions */ +let graphQLendpoint = "https://api.foretold.io/graphql" +let highQualityCommunities = ["0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21", "c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2", "cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39", "47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d"] + +/* Support functions */ +async function fetchAllCommunityQuestions(communityId) { + let response = await axios({ + url: graphQLendpoint, + method: 'POST', + headers: ({ 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }), + data: JSON.stringify(({ + query: ` + query { + measurables( + channelId: "${communityId}", + states: OPEN, + first: 500 + ){ + total + edges{ + node{ + id + name + valueType + measurementCount + previousAggregate{ + value{ + percentage + } + } + } + } + } + } + ` + })), + }) + .then(res => res.data) + .then(res => res.data.measurables.edges) + //console.log(response) + return response +} + +/* Body */ + +export async function foretold(){ + let results = [] + for(let community of highQualityCommunities){ + let questions = await fetchAllCommunityQuestions(community) + questions = questions.map(question => question.node) + questions = questions.filter(question => question.previousAggregate) // Questions without any predictions + questions.forEach(question => { + let options = [] + if(question.valueType == "PERCENTAGE"){ + let probability = question.previousAggregate.value.percentage + options = [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": probability/100, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 1-probability/100, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ] + } + let result = { + "title": question.name, + "url": `https://www.foretold.io/c/${community}/m/${question.id}`, + "platform": "Foretold", + "description": "", + "options": options, + "numforecasts": question.measurementCount / 2, + "stars": calculateStars("Foretold", ({ })) + /*liquidity: liquidity.toFixed(2), + tradevolume: tradevolume.toFixed(2), + address: obj.address*/ + } + console.log(result) + results.push(result) + }) + } + let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2) + fs.writeFileSync('./data/foretold-questions.json', string); + console.log("Done") +} +// foretold() diff --git a/src/index.js b/src/index.js index 3c9ca94..669b715 100644 --- a/src/index.js +++ b/src/index.js @@ -4,7 +4,8 @@ import fs from 'fs' import readline from "readline" import {csetforetell} from "./csetforetell-fetch.js" -import {elicit} from "./elicit-fetch.js" // Currently doesn't "fetch"; elicit must be downloaded manually. +import {elicit} from "./elicit-fetch.js" +import {foretold} from "./foretold-fetch.js" import {goodjudgment} from "./goodjudgment-fetch.js" import {goodjudgmentopen} from "./goodjudmentopen-fetch.js" import {metaculus} from "./metaculus-fetch.js" @@ -18,7 +19,7 @@ import {smarkets} from "./smarkets-fetch.js" let opts = {} let json2csvParser = new Parser({ transforms: [transforms.flatten()]}); //let parse = csv => json2csvParser.parse(csv); -let sets = ["template", "elicit", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "omen", "hypermind", "smarkets"] +let sets = ["template", "elicit", "foretold", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "omen", "hypermind", "smarkets"] let suffix = "-questions" let locationData = "./data/" let sleep = (ms) => new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms)); @@ -75,35 +76,39 @@ let executeoption = async (option) => { elicit() break; case 3: - goodjudgment() + foretold() break; case 4: - goodjudgmentopen() + goodjudgment() break; case 5: - hypermind() + goodjudgmentopen() break; case 6: - metaculus() + hypermind() break; case 7: - omen() + metaculus() break; case 8: + omen() + break; + case 9: polymarket() break; - case 9: + case 10: predictit() break; - case 10: + case 11: smarkets() break; - case 11: + case 12: coverttocsvandmerge() break; - case 12: + case 13: await csetforetell() await elicit() + await foretold() await goodjudgment() await goodjudgmentopen() await hypermind() @@ -111,6 +116,7 @@ let executeoption = async (option) => { await omen() await polymarket() await predictit() + await smarkets() await coverttocsvandmerge() break; default: @@ -123,15 +129,17 @@ let executeoption = async (option) => { let whattodoMessage = `What do you want to do? [1]: Download predictions from csetforetell [2]: Download predictions from elicit -[3]: Download predictions from goodjudgment -[4]: Download predictions from goodjudgmentopen -[5]: Download predictions from hypermind -[6]: Download predictions from metaculus -[7]: Download predictions from omen -[8]: Download predictions from polymarket -[9]: Download predictions from predictit -[10]: Download predictions from smarkets -[11]: Merge jsons them into one big json (requires previous steps) -[12]: All of the above +[3]: Download predictions from foretold +[4]: Download predictions from goodjudgment +[5]: Download predictions from goodjudgmentopen +[6]: Download predictions from hypermind +[7]: Download predictions from metaculus +[8]: Download predictions from omen +[9]: Download predictions from polymarket +[10]: Download predictions from predictit +[11]: Download predictions from smarkets +[12]: Merge jsons them into one big json (requires previous steps) +[13]: All of the above Choose one option, wisely: #` + whattodo(whattodoMessage, executeoption) diff --git a/src/stars.js b/src/stars.js index fa7505c..5ee5d0c 100644 --- a/src/stars.js +++ b/src/stars.js @@ -45,6 +45,15 @@ function calculateStarsElicit(data) { return starsInteger } +function calculateStarsForetold(data) { + let nuno = data => 2 + let eli = (data) => null + let misha = (data) => null + let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)]) + let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal) + return starsInteger +} + function calculateStarsGiveWellOpenPhil(data) { let nuno = data => 2 let eli = (data) => null @@ -135,6 +144,9 @@ export function calculateStars(platform, data) { case "Elicit": stars = calculateStarsElicit(data) break; + case "Foretold": + stars = calculateStarsForetold(data) + break; case "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy": stars = calculateStarsGiveWellOpenPhil(data) break;