feat: new db structure; platform labels

This commit is contained in:
Vyacheslav Matyukhin 2022-04-01 23:24:35 +03:00
parent a1ba23e340
commit 72db637972
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GPG Key ID: 3D2A774C5489F96C
49 changed files with 637 additions and 577 deletions

9
.gitignore vendored
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@ -26,12 +26,6 @@ npm-debug.log*
yarn-debug.log*
yarn-error.log*
# local env files
.env.local
.env.development.local
.env.test.local
.env.production.local
# vercel
.vercel
@ -41,5 +35,4 @@ package-lock.json ## use yarn.lock instead
# Local Netlify folder
.netlify
/.env
/.env.production
/.env*

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@ -1,13 +1,11 @@
import { Pool, PoolClient } from "pg";
import { Forecast, platforms } from "../platforms";
import { Forecast } from "../platforms";
import { hash } from "../utils/hash";
import { measureTime } from "../utils/measureTime";
import { roughSizeOfObject } from "../utils/roughSize";
const platformTableNames = platforms.map((platform) => platform.name);
const forecastTableNames = [...platformTableNames, "combined", "history"];
const forecastTableNames = ["questions", "history"];
const allTableNames = [...forecastTableNames, "dashboards", "frontpage"];
@ -111,28 +109,27 @@ let buildMetaforecastTable = (table: string) => `CREATE TABLE ${table} (
extra json
);`;
async function pgInitializeLatest() {
async function pgInitializeQuestions() {
let YOLO = false;
if (YOLO) {
console.log("Create tables & their indexes");
for (const table of platformTableNames) {
await runPgCommand({
command: dropTable(table),
pool: readWritePool,
});
await runPgCommand({
command: buildMetaforecastTable(table),
pool: readWritePool,
});
await runPgCommand({
command: createUniqueIndex(table),
pool: readWritePool,
});
}
const table = "questions";
await runPgCommand({
command: dropTable(table),
pool: readWritePool,
});
await runPgCommand({
command: buildMetaforecastTable(table),
pool: readWritePool,
});
await runPgCommand({
command: createUniqueIndex(table),
pool: readWritePool,
});
console.log("");
} else {
console.log(
"pgInitializeLatest: This command is dangerous, set YOLO to true in the code to invoke it"
"pgInitializeQuestions: This command is dangerous, set YOLO to true in the code to invoke it"
);
}
}
@ -234,7 +231,7 @@ async function pgInitializeFrontpage() {
export async function pgInitialize() {
await pgInitializeScaffolding();
await pgInitializeLatest();
await pgInitializeQuestions();
await pgInitializeHistories();
await pgInitializeDashboards();
await pgInitializeFrontpage();
@ -416,11 +413,11 @@ pgInsertIntoDashboard({
export async function pgUpsert({
contents,
tableName,
replace,
replacePlatform,
}: {
contents: Forecast[];
tableName: string;
replace: boolean;
replacePlatform?: string;
}) {
if (!forecastTableNames.includes(tableName)) {
throw Error(
@ -432,8 +429,10 @@ export async function pgUpsert({
const client = await readWritePool.connect();
try {
await client.query("BEGIN");
if (replace) {
client.query(`DELETE FROM ${tableName}`);
if (replacePlatform) {
await client.query(`DELETE FROM ${tableName} WHERE platform = $1`, [
replacePlatform,
]);
}
console.log(
`Upserting ${contents.length} rows into postgres table ${tableName}.`

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@ -1,10 +1,9 @@
import { pgReadWithReadCredentials, pgUpsert } from "../../database/pg-wrapper";
export async function updateHistory() {
let latest = await pgReadWithReadCredentials({ tableName: "combined" });
let latest = await pgReadWithReadCredentials({ tableName: "questions" });
await pgUpsert({
contents: latest,
tableName: "history",
replace: false,
});
}

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@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
import { pgInitialize } from "../database/pg-wrapper";
import { doEverything } from "../flow/doEverything";
import { updateHistory } from "../flow/history/updateHistory";
import { mergeEverything } from "../flow/mergeEverything";
import { rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData } from "../flow/rebuildNetliftySiteWithNewData";
import { rebuildFrontpage } from "../frontpage";
import { platforms, processPlatform } from "../platforms";
@ -20,13 +19,6 @@ export const jobs: Job[] = [
message: `Download predictions from ${platform.name}`,
run: () => processPlatform(platform),
})),
{
name: "merge",
message:
"Merge tables into one big table (and push the result to a pg database)",
run: mergeEverything,
separate: true,
},
{
name: "algolia",
message: 'Rebuild algolia database ("index")',

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@ -1,28 +0,0 @@
import { pgRead, pgUpsert } from "../database/pg-wrapper";
import { platforms } from "../platforms";
/* Merge everything */
export async function mergeEverythingInner() {
let merged = [];
for (let platform of platforms) {
const platformName = platform.name;
let json = await pgRead({ tableName: platformName });
console.log(`${platformName} has ${json.length} questions\n`);
merged = merged.concat(json);
}
let mergedprocessed = merged.map((element) => ({
...element,
optionsstringforsearch: element.options
.map((option) => option.name)
.join(", "),
}));
console.log(`In total, there are ${mergedprocessed.length} questions`);
return mergedprocessed;
}
export async function mergeEverything() {
let merged = await mergeEverythingInner();
await pgUpsert({ contents: merged, tableName: "combined", replace: true });
console.log("Done");
}

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@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
import { pgRead, readWritePool } from "./database/pg-wrapper";
import { Forecast } from "./platforms";
export async function getFrontpageRaw() {
export async function getFrontpage(): Promise<Forecast[]> {
const client = await readWritePool.connect();
const res = await client.query(
"SELECT frontpage_sliced FROM frontpage ORDER BY id DESC LIMIT 1"
@ -10,7 +11,7 @@ export async function getFrontpageRaw() {
return res.rows[0].frontpage_sliced;
}
export async function getFrontpageFullRaw() {
export async function getFrontpageFull(): Promise<Forecast[]> {
const client = await readWritePool.connect();
const res = await client.query(
"SELECT frontpage_full FROM frontpage ORDER BY id DESC LIMIT 1"
@ -20,31 +21,15 @@ export async function getFrontpageFullRaw() {
return res.rows[0].frontpage_full;
}
export async function getFrontpage() {
let frontPageForecastsCompatibleWithFuse = [];
try {
let data = await getFrontpageRaw();
frontPageForecastsCompatibleWithFuse = data.map((result) => ({
item: result,
score: 0,
}));
return frontPageForecastsCompatibleWithFuse;
} catch (error) {
console.log(error);
} finally {
return frontPageForecastsCompatibleWithFuse;
}
}
export async function rebuildFrontpage() {
const frontpageFull = await pgRead({
tableName: "combined",
tableName: "questions",
});
const client = await readWritePool.connect();
const frontpageSliced = (
await client.query(`
SELECT * FROM combined
SELECT * FROM questions
WHERE
(qualityindicators->>'stars')::int >= 3
AND description != ''

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@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ import fs from "fs";
import { pgReadWithReadCredentials } from "../database/pg-wrapper";
let main = async () => {
let json = await pgReadWithReadCredentials({ tableName: "combined" });
let json = await pgReadWithReadCredentials({ tableName: "questions" });
let string = JSON.stringify(json, null, 2);
let filename = "metaforecasts.json";
fs.writeFileSync(filename, string);

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@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
import "dotenv/config";
import { readWritePool } from "../database/pg-wrapper";
import { platforms } from "../platforms";
const migrate = async () => {
const client = await readWritePool.connect();
@ -11,6 +10,25 @@ const migrate = async () => {
await client.query(q);
};
const platformTitleToName = {
Betfair: "betfair",
FantasySCOTUS: "fantasyscotus",
Foretold: "foretold",
"GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy": "givewellopenphil",
"Good Judgment": "goodjudgement",
"Good Judgment Open": "goodjudgmentopen",
Infer: "infer",
Kalshi: "kalshi",
"Manifold Markets": "manifold",
Metaculus: "metaculus",
"Peter Wildeford": "wildeford",
PolyMarket: "polymarket",
PredictIt: "predictit",
Rootclaim: "rootclaim",
Smarkets: "smarkets",
"X-risk estimates": "xrisk",
};
try {
await client.query("BEGIN");
const copyTable = async (from: string, to: string) => {
@ -19,13 +37,49 @@ const migrate = async () => {
await execQuery(`INSERT INTO ${to} SELECT * FROM ${from}`);
};
for (const platform of platforms) {
await copyTable(`latest.${platform.name}`, platform.name);
}
await copyTable("latest.dashboards", "dashboards");
await copyTable("latest.combined", "combined");
await copyTable("latest.combined", "questions");
await copyTable("latest.frontpage", "frontpage");
await copyTable("history.h2022", "history");
for (const [title, name] of Object.entries(platformTitleToName)) {
console.log(`Updating ${title} -> ${name}`);
for (const table of ["questions", "history"]) {
await client.query(
`UPDATE ${table} SET platform=$1 WHERE platform=$2`,
[name, title]
);
}
}
console.log("Fixing GJOpen ids in questions and history");
for (const table of ["questions", "history"]) {
await client.query(
`UPDATE ${table} SET id=REPLACE(id, 'goodjudmentopen-', 'goodjudgmentopen-') WHERE id LIKE 'goodjudmentopen-%'`
);
}
const fixId = (id: string) =>
id.replace("goodjudmentopen-", "goodjudgmentopen-");
console.log(
"Please rebuild frontpage manually - current version includes invalid GJOpen and xrisk ids"
);
const updateDashboards = async () => {
const res = await client.query("SELECT id, contents FROM dashboards");
for (const row of res.rows) {
let { id, contents } = row;
contents = contents.map(fixId);
await client.query(
"UPDATE dashboards SET contents = $1 WHERE id = $2",
[JSON.stringify(contents), id]
);
}
};
console.log("Updating dashboards");
await updateDashboards();
await client.query("COMMIT");
} catch (e) {
await client.query("ROLLBACK");

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@ -5,6 +5,8 @@ import https from "https";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
import { Forecast, Platform } from "./";
const platformName = "betfair";
/* Definitions */
let endpoint = process.env.SECRET_BETFAIR_ENDPOINT;
@ -121,12 +123,14 @@ async function processPredictions(data) {
id: id,
title: title,
url: `https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/${prediction.marketId}`,
platform: "Betfair",
platform: platformName,
description: description,
options: options,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
stars: calculateStars("Betfair", { volume: prediction.totalMatched }),
stars: calculateStars(platformName, {
volume: prediction.totalMatched,
}),
volume: prediction.totalMatched,
},
};
@ -136,7 +140,9 @@ async function processPredictions(data) {
}
export const betfair: Platform = {
name: "betfair",
name: platformName,
label: "Betfair",
color: "#3d674a",
async fetcher() {
const data = await fetchPredictions();
const results = await processPredictions(data); // somehow needed

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@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ async function fetchData() {
async function processPredictions(predictions) {
let results = await predictions.map((prediction) => {
let id = `platform-${prediction.id}`;
let id = `example-${prediction.id}`;
let probability = prediction.probability;
let options = [
{
@ -61,6 +61,8 @@ async function processPredictions(predictions) {
export const example: Platform = {
name: "example",
label: "Example platform",
color: "#ff0000",
async fetcher() {
let data = await fetchData();
let results = await processPredictions(data); // somehow needed

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@ -2,7 +2,9 @@
import axios from "axios";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
import { Platform } from "./";
import { Forecast, Platform } from "./";
const platformName = "fantasyscotus";
/* Definitions */
let unixtime = new Date().getTime();
@ -65,19 +67,19 @@ async function processData(data) {
let historicalPercentageCorrect = data.stats.pcnt_correct;
let historicalProbabilityCorrect =
Number(historicalPercentageCorrect.replace("%", "")) / 100;
let results = [];
let results: Forecast[] = [];
for (let event of events) {
if (event.accuracy == "") {
let id = `fantasyscotus-${event.id}`;
let id = `${platformName}-${event.id}`;
// if the thing hasn't already resolved
let predictionData = await getPredictionsData(event.docket_url);
let pAffirm = predictionData.proportionAffirm;
//let trackRecord = event.prediction.includes("Affirm") ? historicalProbabilityCorrect : 1-historicalProbabilityCorrect
let eventObject = {
let eventObject: Forecast = {
id: id,
title: `In ${event.short_name}, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision`,
url: `https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions${event.docket_url}`,
platform: "FantasySCOTUS",
platform: platformName,
description: `${(pAffirm * 100).toFixed(2)}% (${
predictionData.numAffirm
} out of ${
@ -100,7 +102,7 @@ async function processData(data) {
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: Number(predictionData.numForecasts),
stars: calculateStars("FantasySCOTUS", {}),
stars: calculateStars(platformName, {}),
},
};
results.push(eventObject);
@ -112,7 +114,9 @@ async function processData(data) {
/* Body */
export const fantasyscotus: Platform = {
name: "fantasyscotus",
name: platformName,
label: "FantasySCOTUS",
color: "#231149",
async fetcher() {
let rawData = await fetchData();
let results = await processData(rawData);

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@ -5,6 +5,9 @@ import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
import { Platform } from "./";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "foretold";
let graphQLendpoint = "https://api.foretold.io/graphql";
let highQualityCommunities = [
"0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21",
@ -54,7 +57,9 @@ async function fetchAllCommunityQuestions(communityId) {
}
export const foretold: Platform = {
name: "foretold",
name: platformName,
label: "Foretold",
color: "#62520b",
async fetcher() {
let results = [];
for (let community of highQualityCommunities) {
@ -62,7 +67,7 @@ export const foretold: Platform = {
questions = questions.map((question) => question.node);
questions = questions.filter((question) => question.previousAggregate); // Questions without any predictions
questions.forEach((question) => {
let id = `foretold-${question.id}`;
let id = `${platformName}-${question.id}`;
let options = [];
if (question.valueType == "PERCENTAGE") {
let probability = question.previousAggregate.value.percentage;
@ -83,13 +88,13 @@ export const foretold: Platform = {
id: id,
title: question.name,
url: `https://www.foretold.io/c/${community}/m/${question.id}`,
platform: "Foretold",
platform: platformName,
description: "",
options: options,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: Math.floor(Number(question.measurementCount) / 2),
stars: calculateStars("Foretold", {}),
stars: calculateStars(platformName, {}),
},
/*liquidity: liquidity.toFixed(2),
tradevolume: tradevolume.toFixed(2),

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@ -5,6 +5,8 @@ import fs from "fs";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
import { Platform } from "./";
const platformName = "givewellopenphil";
/* Support functions */
async function fetchPage(url: string) {
let response = await axios({
@ -48,11 +50,11 @@ async function main1() {
let result = {
title: title,
url: url,
platform: "GiveWell",
platform: platformName,
description: description,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
stars: calculateStars("GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", {}),
stars: calculateStars(platformName, {}),
},
}; // Note: This requires some processing afterwards
// console.log(result)
@ -65,7 +67,9 @@ async function main1() {
}
export const givewellopenphil: Platform = {
name: "givewellopenphil",
name: platformName,
label: "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
color: "#32407e",
async fetcher() {
// main1()
return; // not necessary to refill the DB every time

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@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
import { Platform } from "./";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "goodjudgment";
let endpoint = "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/";
String.prototype.replaceAll = function replaceAll(search, replace) {
return this.split(search).join(replace);
@ -15,7 +16,9 @@ String.prototype.replaceAll = function replaceAll(search, replace) {
/* Body */
export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
name: "goodjudgment",
name: platformName,
label: "Good Judgment",
color: "#7d4f1b",
async fetcher() {
// Proxy fuckery
let proxy;
@ -64,7 +67,7 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
let title = table[0]["0"].split("\t\t\t").splice(3)[0];
if (title != undefined) {
title = title.replaceAll("</a>", "");
let id = `goodjudgment-${hash(title)}`;
let id = `${platformName}-${hash(title)}`;
let description = table
.filter((row) => row["0"].includes("BACKGROUND:"))
.map((row) => row["0"])
@ -101,12 +104,12 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
id: id,
title: title,
url: endpoint,
platform: "Good Judgment",
platform: platformName,
description: description,
options: options,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
stars: calculateStars("Good Judgment", {}),
stars: calculateStars(platformName, {}),
},
extra: {
superforecastercommentary: analysis || "",

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@ -8,6 +8,8 @@ import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
import { Platform } from "./";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "goodjudgmentopen";
let htmlEndPoint = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions?page=";
let annoyingPromptUrls = [
"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1933-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen",
@ -185,12 +187,12 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie) {
}
let questionNumRegex = new RegExp("questions/([0-9]+)");
let questionNum = url.match(questionNumRegex)[1]; //.split("questions/")[1].split("-")[0];
let id = `goodjudmentopen-${questionNum}`;
let id = `${platformName}-${questionNum}`;
let question = {
id: id,
title: title,
url: url,
platform: "Good Judgment Open",
platform: platformName,
...moreinfo,
};
if (j % 30 == 0 || DEBUG_MODE == "on") {
@ -236,8 +238,10 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie) {
return results;
}
export const goodjudmentopen: Platform = {
name: "goodjudmentopen", // note the typo! current table name is without `g`, `goodjudmentopen`
export const goodjudgmentopen: Platform = {
name: platformName,
label: "Good Judgment Open",
color: "#002455",
async fetcher() {
let cookie = process.env.GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE;
return await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, goodjudgmentopen_inner);

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@ -4,10 +4,10 @@ import { fantasyscotus } from "./fantasyscotus";
import { foretold } from "./foretold";
import { givewellopenphil } from "./givewellopenphil";
import { goodjudgment } from "./goodjudgment";
import { goodjudmentopen } from "./goodjudmentopen";
import { goodjudgmentopen } from "./goodjudgmentopen";
import { infer } from "./infer";
import { kalshi } from "./kalshi";
import { manifoldmarkets } from "./manifoldmarkets";
import { manifold } from "./manifold";
import { metaculus } from "./metaculus";
import { polymarket } from "./polymarket";
import { predictit } from "./predictit";
@ -67,7 +67,9 @@ export interface Forecast {
export type PlatformFetcher = () => Promise<Forecast[] | null>;
export interface Platform {
name: string;
name: string; // short name for ids and `platform` db column, e.g. "xrisk"
label: string; // longer name for displaying on frontend etc., e.g. "X-risk estimates"
color: string; // used on frontend
fetcher?: PlatformFetcher;
}
@ -92,10 +94,10 @@ export const platforms: Platform[] = [
foretold,
givewellopenphil,
goodjudgment,
goodjudmentopen,
goodjudgmentopen,
infer,
kalshi,
manifoldmarkets,
manifold,
metaculus,
polymarket,
predictit,
@ -114,8 +116,8 @@ export const processPlatform = async (platform: Platform) => {
if (results && results.length) {
await pgUpsert({
contents: results,
tableName: platform.name,
replace: true,
tableName: "questions",
replacePlatform: platform.name,
});
console.log("Done");
} else {

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@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
import { Forecast, Platform } from "./";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "infer";
let htmlEndPoint = "https://www.infer-pub.com/questions";
String.prototype.replaceAll = function replaceAll(search, replace) {
return this.split(search).join(replace);
@ -145,7 +146,7 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: Number(numforecasts),
numforecasters: Number(numforecasters),
stars: calculateStars("Infer", { numforecasts }),
stars: calculateStars(platformName, { numforecasts }),
},
};
@ -218,7 +219,7 @@ async function infer_inner(cookie) {
let moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie);
let questionNumRegex = new RegExp("questions/([0-9]+)");
let questionNum = url.match(questionNumRegex)[1]; //.split("questions/")[1].split("-")[0];
let id = `infer-${questionNum}`;
let id = `${platformName}-${questionNum}`;
let question = {
id: id,
title: title,
@ -278,7 +279,9 @@ async function infer_inner(cookie) {
}
export const infer: Platform = {
name: "infer",
name: platformName,
label: "Infer",
color: "#223900",
async fetcher() {
let cookie = process.env.INFER_COOKIE;
return await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, infer_inner);

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@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
import { Platform } from "./";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "kalshi";
let jsonEndpoint = "https://trading-api.kalshi.com/v1/cached/markets/"; //"https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket"//"https://subgraph-backup.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket"//'https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket3'
async function fetchAllMarkets() {
@ -34,17 +35,17 @@ async function processMarkets(markets) {
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
];
let id = `kalshi-${market.id}`;
let id = `${platformName}-${market.id}`;
let result = {
id: id,
title: market.title.replaceAll("*", ""),
url: `https://kalshi.com/markets/${market.ticker_name}`,
platform: "Kalshi",
platform: platformName,
description: `${market.settle_details}. The resolution source is: ${market.ranged_group_name} (${market.settle_source_url})`,
options: options,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
stars: calculateStars("Kalshi", {
stars: calculateStars(platformName, {
shares_volume: market.volume,
interest: market.open_interest,
}),
@ -70,7 +71,9 @@ async function processMarkets(markets) {
}
export const kalshi: Platform = {
name: "kalshi",
name: platformName,
label: "Kalshi",
color: "#615691",
fetcher: async function () {
let markets = await fetchAllMarkets();
return await processMarkets(markets);

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@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
import { Platform } from "./";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "manifold";
let endpoint = "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/markets";
// See https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Markets-API-5e7d0aef4dcf452bb04b319e178fabc5
@ -44,7 +45,7 @@ function showStatistics(results) {
async function processPredictions(predictions) {
let results = await predictions.map((prediction) => {
let id = `manifold-${prediction.id}`;
let id = `manifold-${prediction.id}`; // oops, doesn't match platform name
let probability = prediction.probability;
let options = [
{
@ -67,7 +68,7 @@ async function processPredictions(predictions) {
options: options,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
stars: calculateStars("Manifold Markets", {
stars: calculateStars(platformName, {
volume7Days: prediction.volume7Days,
volume24Hours: prediction.volume24Hours,
pool: prediction.pool,
@ -88,8 +89,10 @@ async function processPredictions(predictions) {
return unresolvedResults; //resultsProcessed
}
export const manifoldmarkets: Platform = {
name: "manifoldmarkets",
export const manifold: Platform = {
name: platformName,
label: "Manifold Markets",
color: "#793466",
async fetcher() {
let data = await fetchData();
let results = await processPredictions(data); // somehow needed

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@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
import { Platform } from "./";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "metaculus";
let jsonEndPoint = "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?page=";
let now = new Date().toISOString();
let DEBUG_MODE = "off";
@ -94,7 +95,9 @@ async function fetchMetaculusQuestionDescription(slug) {
}
export const metaculus: Platform = {
name: "metaculus",
name: platformName,
label: "Metaculus",
color: "#006669",
async fetcher() {
// let metaculusQuestionsInit = await fetchMetaculusQuestions(1)
// let numQueries = Math.round(Number(metaculusQuestionsInit.count) / 20)
@ -144,18 +147,18 @@ export const metaculus: Platform = {
},
];
}
let id = `metaculus-${result.id}`;
let id = `${platformName}-${result.id}`;
let interestingInfo = {
id: id,
title: result.title,
url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + result.page_url,
platform: "Metaculus",
platform: platformName,
description: description,
options: options,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: Number(result.number_of_predictions),
stars: calculateStars("Metaculus", {
stars: calculateStars(platformName, {
numforecasts: result.number_of_predictions,
}),
},

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@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
import { Forecast, Platform } from "./";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "polymarket";
let graphQLendpoint =
"https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/polymarket/matic-markets-5"; // "https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/polymarket/matic-markets-4"// "https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/tokenunion/polymarket-matic"//"https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket"//"https://subgraph-backup.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket"//'https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket3'
let units = 10 ** 6;
@ -63,7 +64,9 @@ async function fetchIndividualContractData(marketMakerAddress) {
}
export const polymarket: Platform = {
name: "polymarket",
name: platformName,
label: "PolyMarket",
color: "#00314e",
async fetcher() {
let results: Forecast[] = [];
let webpageEndpointData = await fetchAllContractInfo();
@ -79,7 +82,7 @@ export const polymarket: Platform = {
);
if (moreMarketAnswer.length > 0) {
let moreMarketInfo = moreMarketAnswer[0];
let id = `polymarket-${addressLowerCase.slice(0, 10)}`;
let id = `${platformName}-${addressLowerCase.slice(0, 10)}`;
// console.log(id);
let numforecasts = Number(moreMarketInfo.tradesQuantity);
let tradevolume =
@ -103,7 +106,7 @@ export const polymarket: Platform = {
id: id,
title: marketInfo.question,
url: "https://polymarket.com/market/" + marketInfo.slug,
platform: "PolyMarket",
platform: platformName,
description: marketInfo.description,
options: options,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
@ -111,7 +114,7 @@ export const polymarket: Platform = {
numforecasts: numforecasts.toFixed(0),
liquidity: liquidity.toFixed(2),
tradevolume: tradevolume.toFixed(2),
stars: calculateStars("Polymarket", {
stars: calculateStars(platformName, {
liquidity,
option: options[0],
volume: tradevolume,

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@ -1,10 +1,11 @@
/* Imports */
import axios from "axios";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
import { Platform } from "./";
const platformName = "predictit";
/* Support functions */
async function fetchmarkets() {
let response = await axios({
@ -39,7 +40,9 @@ function sleep(ms: number) {
/* Body */
export const predictit: Platform = {
name: "predictit",
name: platformName,
label: "PredictIt",
color: "#460c00",
async fetcher() {
let markets = await fetchmarkets();
let marketVolumes = await fetchmarketvolumes();
@ -53,7 +56,7 @@ export const predictit: Platform = {
let results = [];
for (let market of markets) {
// console.log(market.name)
let id = `predictit-${market.id}`;
let id = `${platformName}-${market.id}`;
let isbinary = market.contracts.length == 1;
await sleep(3000 * (1 + Math.random()));
let descriptionraw = await fetchmarketrules(market.id);
@ -97,12 +100,12 @@ export const predictit: Platform = {
id: id,
title: market["name"],
url: market.url,
platform: "PredictIt",
platform: platformName,
description: description,
options: options,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
stars: calculateStars("PredictIt", {}),
stars: calculateStars(platformName, {}),
shares_volume: shares_volume,
},
};

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@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
/* Imports */
import axios from "axios";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
import { Platform } from "./";
import { Forecast, Platform } from "./";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "rootclaim";
let jsonEndpoint =
"https://www.rootclaim.com/main_page_stories?number=100&offset=0"; //"https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket"//"https://subgraph-backup.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket"//'https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket3'
@ -24,12 +24,14 @@ async function fetchAllRootclaims() {
}
export const rootclaim: Platform = {
name: "rootclaim",
name: platformName,
label: "Rootclaim",
color: "#0d1624",
async fetcher() {
let claims = await fetchAllRootclaims();
let results = [];
let results: Forecast[] = [];
for (let claim of claims) {
let id = `rootclaim-${claim.slug.toLowerCase()}`;
let id = `${platformName}-${claim.slug.toLowerCase()}`;
let options = [];
for (let scenario of claim.scenarios) {
//console.log(scenario)
@ -42,17 +44,17 @@ export const rootclaim: Platform = {
});
}
let claimUrlPath = claim.created_at < "2020" ? "claims" : "analysis";
let obj = {
let obj: Forecast = {
id: id,
title: toMarkdown(claim.question).replace("\n", ""),
url: `https://www.rootclaim.com/${claimUrlPath}/${claim.slug}`,
platform: "Rootclaim",
platform: platformName,
description: toMarkdown(claim.background).replace("&#39;", "'"),
options: options,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: 1,
stars: calculateStars("Rootclaim", {}),
stars: calculateStars(platformName, {}),
},
};
results.push(obj);

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@ -1,13 +1,14 @@
/* Imports */
import axios from "axios";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
import { Platform } from "./";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "smarkets";
let htmlEndPointEntrance = "https://api.smarkets.com/v3/events/";
let VERBOSE = false;
let empty = () => 0;
/* Support functions */
async function fetchEvents(url) {
@ -60,7 +61,9 @@ async function fetchPrices(marketid) {
}
export const smarkets: Platform = {
name: "smarkets",
name: platformName,
label: "Smarkets",
color: "#6f5b41",
async fetcher() {
let htmlPath =
"?state=new&state=upcoming&state=live&type_domain=politics&type_scope=single_event&with_new_type=true&sort=id&limit=50";
@ -93,7 +96,7 @@ export const smarkets: Platform = {
for (let market of markets) {
VERBOSE ? console.log("================") : empty();
VERBOSE ? console.log("Market: ", market) : empty();
let id = `smarkets-${market.id}`;
let id = `${platformName}-${market.id}`;
let name = market.name;
let contracts = await fetchContracts(market.id);
@ -160,12 +163,12 @@ export const smarkets: Platform = {
id: id,
title: name,
url: "https://smarkets.com/event/" + market.event_id + market.slug,
platform: "Smarkets",
platform: platformName,
description: market.description,
options: options,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
stars: calculateStars("Smarkets", {}),
stars: calculateStars(platformName, {}),
},
};
VERBOSE ? console.log(result) : empty();

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@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
import { Platform } from "./";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "wildeford";
const SHEET_ID = "1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0"; // spreadsheet key is the long id in the sheets URL
const endpoint = `https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/${SHEET_ID}/edit#gid=0`;
// https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0
@ -73,7 +74,7 @@ async function processPredictions(predictions) {
);
let results = currentPredictions.map((prediction) => {
let title = prediction["Prediction"].replace(" [update]", "");
let id = `wildeford-${hash(title)}`;
let id = `${platformName}-${hash(title)}`;
let probability = Number(prediction["Odds"].replace("%", "")) / 100;
let options = [
{
@ -91,14 +92,14 @@ async function processPredictions(predictions) {
id: id,
title: title,
url: prediction["url"],
platform: "Peter Wildeford",
platform: platformName,
description: prediction["Notes"] || "",
options: options,
timestamp: new Date(
Date.parse(prediction["Prediction Date"] + "Z")
).toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
stars: calculateStars("Peter Wildeford", null),
stars: calculateStars(platformName, null),
},
};
return result;
@ -120,7 +121,9 @@ export async function wildeford_inner(google_api_key) {
}
export const wildeford: Platform = {
name: "wildeford",
name: platformName,
label: "Peter Wildeford",
color: "#984158",
async fetcher() {
const GOOGLE_API_KEY = process.env.GOOGLE_API_KEY; // See: https://developers.google.com/sheets/api/guides/authorizing#APIKey
return await applyIfSecretExists(GOOGLE_API_KEY, wildeford_inner);

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@ -1,15 +1,25 @@
import fs from "fs";
import { hash } from "../utils/hash";
import { Platform } from "./";
const platformName = "xrisk";
export const xrisk: Platform = {
name: "xrisk",
label: "X-risk estimates",
color: "#272600",
async fetcher() {
return; // not necessary to refill the DB every time
// return; // not necessary to refill the DB every time
let fileRaw = fs.readFileSync("./input/xrisk-questions.json", {
encoding: "utf-8",
});
const results = JSON.parse(fileRaw);
let results = JSON.parse(fileRaw);
results = results.map((item) => ({
...item,
id: `${platformName}-${hash(item.title + " | " + item.url)}`, // some titles are non-unique, but title+url pair is always unique
platform: platformName,
}));
return results;
},
};

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@ -1,34 +1,13 @@
import algoliasearch from "algoliasearch";
import { pgReadWithReadCredentials } from "../database/pg-wrapper";
import { mergeEverythingInner } from "../flow/mergeEverything";
import { platforms } from "../platforms";
let cookie = process.env.ALGOLIA_MASTER_API_KEY;
const algoliaAppId = process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_ALGOLIA_APP_ID;
const client = algoliasearch(algoliaAppId, cookie);
const index = client.initIndex("metaforecast");
export async function rebuildAlgoliaDatabaseTheHardWay() {
console.log("Doing this the hard way");
let records = await mergeEverythingInner();
records = records.map((record, index: number) => ({
...record,
has_numforecasts: record.numforecasts ? true : false,
objectID: index,
}));
// this is necessary to filter by missing attributes https://www.algolia.com/doc/guides/managing-results/refine-results/filtering/how-to/filter-by-null-or-missing-attributes/
if (index.exists()) {
console.log("Index exists");
index
.replaceAllObjects(records, { safe: true })
.catch((error) => console.log(error));
console.log(
`Pushed ${records.length} records. Algolia will update asynchronously`
);
}
}
let getoptionsstringforsearch = (record: any) => {
let result = "";
if (!!record.options && record.options.length > 0) {
@ -42,11 +21,16 @@ let getoptionsstringforsearch = (record: any) => {
export async function rebuildAlgoliaDatabaseTheEasyWay() {
let records: any[] = await pgReadWithReadCredentials({
tableName: "combined",
tableName: "questions",
});
const platformNameToLabel = Object.fromEntries(
platforms.map((platform) => [platform.name, platform.label])
);
records = records.map((record, index: number) => ({
...record,
platformLabel: platformNameToLabel[record.platform] || record.platform,
has_numforecasts: record.numforecasts ? true : false,
objectID: index,
optionsstringforsearch: getoptionsstringforsearch(record),
@ -62,4 +46,4 @@ export async function rebuildAlgoliaDatabaseTheEasyWay() {
}
}
export const rebuildAlgoliaDatabase = rebuildAlgoliaDatabaseTheEasyWay; //rebuildAlgoliaDatabaseTheHardWay
export const rebuildAlgoliaDatabase = rebuildAlgoliaDatabaseTheEasyWay;

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@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ let main = async () => {
"PredictIt",
"Rootclaim",
];
let json = await pgReadWithReadCredentials({ tableName: "combined" });
let json = await pgReadWithReadCredentials({ tableName: "questions" });
console.log(json.length);
//let uniquePlatforms = [...new Set(json.map(forecast => forecast.platform))]
//console.log(uniquePlatforms)

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@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ let shuffleArray = (array) => {