Change readme to point to the website as well
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## What this is
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## What this is
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This is a set of libraries and a command line interface that fetches probabilities/forecasts from prediction markets and forecasting platforms. These forecasts are then hosted on airtable, and used to power a search engine for probabilities.
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This is a set of libraries and a command line interface that fetches probabilities/forecasts from prediction markets and forecasting platforms.
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For now, a demo can be found [here](https://metaforecast.org/) (try searching "Trump", "China" or "Semiconductors"), and the database can be perused [here](https://airtable.com/shrUotmcMmmTdIjmX). I also have a json endpoint [here](https://metaforecast.org/data/metaforecasts.json) and a csv endpoint [here](https://metaforecast.org/data/metaforecasts.csv).
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These forecasts are then used to power a search engine for probabilities, which can be found [here](https://metaforecast.org/) (try searching "Trump", "China" or "Semiconductors") (source code [here](https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecast-website-nextjs)). A json endpoint can be found [here](https://metaforecast.org/data/metaforecasts.json).
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I also created a search engine using Elicit's IDE, which uses GPT-3 to deliver vastly superior semantic search (as opposed to fuzzy word matching). If you have access to the Elicit IDE, you can use the action "Search Metaforecast database".
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I also created a search engine using Elicit's IDE, which uses GPT-3 to deliver vastly superior semantic search (as opposed to fuzzy word matching). If you have access to the Elicit IDE, you can use the action "Search Metaforecast database".
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@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ import {smarkets} from "./smarkets-fetch.js"
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let opts = {}
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let opts = {}
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let json2csvParser = new Parser({ transforms: [transforms.flatten()]});
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let json2csvParser = new Parser({ transforms: [transforms.flatten()]});
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//let parse = csv => json2csvParser.parse(csv);
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//let parse = csv => json2csvParser.parse(csv);
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let sets = ["template", "elicit", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "omen", "hypermind", "smarkets"]
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let sets = ["template", "elicit", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "omen", "hypermind", "smarkets"]
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let suffix = "-questions"
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let suffix = "-questions"
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let locationData = "./data/"
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let locationData = "./data/"
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let sleep = (ms) => new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
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let sleep = (ms) => new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
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36
src/process-forecasts-from-old.js
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36
src/process-forecasts-from-old.js
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/* Imports */
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import fs from "fs"
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/* Definitions */
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let locationData = "./data/"
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/* Body */
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let rawdata = fs.readFileSync("../data/givewellopenphil-questions-processed-old-format.json")
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let data = JSON.parse(rawdata)
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let results = []
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for(let datum of data){
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let probability = Math.round(Number(datum["Percentage"].replace("%","")))/100
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let result = ({
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"title": datum["Title"],
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"platform": datum["Platform"],
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"description": datum["Description"],
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"options": [
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{
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"name": "Yes",
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"probability": probability,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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},
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{
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"name": "No",
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"probability": 1-Math.round(probability*100)/100,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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}
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],
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"stars": datum["Stars"]
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})
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results.push(result)
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}
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let string = JSON.stringify(results,null, 2)
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fs.writeFileSync("../data/givewellopenphil-questions.json", string)
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