Merge pull request #79 from quantified-uncertainty/stricter-typescript

Strict typescript & platform/cli arguments

package.json

@@ -33,13 +33,18 @@
     "@pothos/plugin-prisma": "^3.4.0",
     "@pothos/plugin-relay": "^3.10.0",
     "@prisma/client": "^3.11.1",
+    "@quri/squiggle-lang": "^0.2.8",
     "@tailwindcss/forms": "^0.4.0",
     "@tailwindcss/typography": "^0.5.1",
+    "@types/chroma-js": "^2.1.3",
     "@types/dom-to-image": "^2.6.4",
+    "@types/google-spreadsheet": "^3.2.1",
     "@types/jsdom": "^16.2.14",
     "@types/nprogress": "^0.2.0",
     "@types/react": "^17.0.39",
     "@types/react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.0.2",
+    "@types/textversionjs": "^1.1.1",
+    "@types/tunnel": "^0.0.3",
     "airtable": "^0.11.1",
     "algoliasearch": "^4.10.3",
     "autoprefixer": "^10.1.0",
@@ -86,7 +91,6 @@
     "react-safe": "^1.3.0",
     "react-select": "^5.2.2",
     "remark-gfm": "^3.0.1",
-    "squiggle-experimental": "^0.1.9",
     "tabletojson": "^2.0.4",
     "tailwindcss": "^3.0.22",
     "textversionjs": "^1.1.3",

src/backend/flow/doEverything.ts

@@ -3,14 +3,7 @@ import { executeJobByName } from "./jobs";
 
 /* Do everything */
 export async function doEverything() {
-  let jobNames = [
+  let jobNames = [...platforms.map((platform) => platform.name), "algolia"];
-    ...platforms.map((platform) => platform.name),
-    "merge",
-    "algolia",
-    "history",
-    "netlify",
-  ];
-  // Removed Good Judgment from the fetcher, doing it using cron instead because cloudflare blocks the utility on heroku.
 
   console.log("");
   console.log("");

src/backend/flow/history/updateHistory.ts

@@ -1,11 +0,0 @@
-import { prisma } from "../../database/prisma";
-
-export async function updateHistory() {
-  const questions = await prisma.question.findMany({});
-  await prisma.history.createMany({
-    data: questions.map((q) => ({
-      ...q,
-      idref: q.id,
-    })),
-  });
-}

src/backend/flow/jobs.ts

@@ -1,38 +1,29 @@
 import { doEverything } from "../flow/doEverything";
-import { updateHistory } from "../flow/history/updateHistory";
-import { rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData } from "../flow/rebuildNetliftySiteWithNewData";
 import { rebuildFrontpage } from "../frontpage";
 import { platforms, processPlatform } from "../platforms";
 import { rebuildAlgoliaDatabase } from "../utils/algolia";
+import { sleep } from "../utils/sleep";
 
-interface Job {
+interface Job<ArgNames extends string = ""> {
   name: string;
   message: string;
-  run: () => Promise<void>;
+  args?: ArgNames[];
+  run: (args?: { [k in ArgNames]: string }) => Promise<void>;
   separate?: boolean;
 }
 
-export const jobs: Job[] = [
+export const jobs: Job<string>[] = [
   ...platforms.map((platform) => ({
     name: platform.name,
     message: `Download predictions from ${platform.name}`,
-    run: () => processPlatform(platform),
+    ...(platform.version === "v2" ? { args: platform.fetcherArgs } : {}),
+    run: (args: any) => processPlatform(platform, args),
   })),
   {
     name: "algolia",
     message: 'Rebuild algolia database ("index")',
     run: rebuildAlgoliaDatabase,
   },
-  {
-    name: "history",
-    message: "Update history",
-    run: updateHistory,
-  },
-  {
-    name: "netlify",
-    message: `Rebuild netlify site with new data`,
-    run: rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData,
-  },
   {
     name: "frontpage",
     message: "Rebuild frontpage",
@@ -46,31 +37,39 @@ export const jobs: Job[] = [
   },
 ];
 
-function sleep(ms: number) {
+async function tryCatchTryAgain<T extends object = never>(
-  return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
+  fun: (args: T) => Promise<void>,
-}
+  args: T
-
+) {
-async function tryCatchTryAgain(fun: () => Promise<void>) {
   try {
     console.log("Initial try");
-    await fun();
+    await fun(args);
   } catch (error) {
     sleep(10000);
     console.log("Second try");
     console.log(error);
     try {
-      await fun();
+      await fun(args);
     } catch (error) {
       console.log(error);
     }
   }
 }
 
-export const executeJobByName = async (option: string) => {
+export const executeJobByName = async (
-  const job = jobs.find((job) => job.name === option);
+  jobName: string,
+  jobArgs: { [k: string]: string } = {}
+) => {
+  const job = jobs.find((job) => job.name === jobName);
   if (!job) {
-    console.log(`Error, job ${option} not found`);
+    console.log(`Error, job ${jobName} not found`);
-  } else {
+    return;
-    await tryCatchTryAgain(job.run);
   }
+  for (const key of Object.keys(jobArgs)) {
+    if (!job.args || job.args.indexOf(key) < 0) {
+      throw new Error(`Job ${jobName} doesn't accept ${key} argument`);
+    }
+  }
+
+  await tryCatchTryAgain(job.run, jobArgs);
 };

src/backend/flow/rebuildNetliftySiteWithNewData.ts

@@ -1,15 +0,0 @@
-import axios from "axios";
-
-import { applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets";
-
-async function rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData_inner(cookie) {
-  let payload = {};
-  let response = await axios.post(cookie, payload);
-  let data = response.data;
-  console.log(data);
-}
-
-export async function rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData() {
-  let cookie = process.env.REBUIDNETLIFYHOOKURL;
-  await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData_inner);
-}

src/backend/index.ts

@@ -2,11 +2,10 @@
 import "dotenv/config";
 
 import readline from "readline";
-import util from "util";
 
 import { executeJobByName, jobs } from "./flow/jobs";
 
-let generateWhatToDoMessage = () => {
+const generateWhatToDoMessage = () => {
   const color = "\x1b[36m";
   const resetColor = "\x1b[0m";
   let completeMessages = [
@@ -23,27 +22,56 @@ let generateWhatToDoMessage = () => {
   return completeMessages;
 };
 
-let whattodoMessage = generateWhatToDoMessage();
+const whattodoMessage = generateWhatToDoMessage();
 
-/* BODY */
+const askForJobName = async () => {
-let commandLineUtility = async () => {
+  const rl = readline.createInterface({
-  const pickOption = async () => {
+    input: process.stdin,
-    if (process.argv.length === 3) {
+    output: process.stdout,
-      return process.argv[2]; // e.g., npm run cli polymarket
+  });
-    }
 
-    const rl = readline.createInterface({
+  const question = (query: string) => {
-      input: process.stdin,
+    return new Promise((resolve: (s: string) => void) => {
-      output: process.stdout,
+      rl.question(query, resolve);
     });
-
-    const question = util.promisify(rl.question).bind(rl);
-    const answer = await question(whattodoMessage);
-    rl.close();
-    return answer;
   };
 
-  await executeJobByName(await pickOption());
+  const answer = await question(whattodoMessage);
+  rl.close();
+
+  return answer;
+};
+
+const pickJob = async (): Promise<[string, { [k: string]: string }]> => {
+  if (process.argv.length < 3) {
+    const jobName = await askForJobName();
+    return [jobName, {}]; // e.g., npm run cli polymarket
+  }
+
+  const jobName = process.argv[2];
+  if ((process.argv.length - 3) % 2) {
+    throw new Error("Number of extra arguments must be even");
+  }
+
+  const args: { [k: string]: string } = {};
+  for (let i = 3; i < process.argv.length; i += 2) {
+    let argName = process.argv[i];
+    const argValue = process.argv[i + 1];
+    if (argName.slice(0, 2) !== "--") {
+      throw new Error(`${argName} should start with --`);
+    }
+    argName = argName.slice(2);
+    args[argName] = argValue;
+  }
+
+  return [jobName, args];
+};
+
+/* BODY */
+const commandLineUtility = async () => {
+  const [jobName, jobArgs] = await pickJob();
+
+  await executeJobByName(jobName, jobArgs);
   process.exit();
 };
 

src/backend/platforms/_example.ts

@@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
 /* Imports */
 import axios from "axios";
 
-import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
 import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
 
 /* Definitions */
@@ -22,11 +21,11 @@ async function fetchData() {
   return response;
 }
 
-async function processPredictions(predictions) {
+async function processPredictions(predictions: any[]) {
   let results = await predictions.map((prediction) => {
     const id = `${platformName}-${prediction.id}`;
     const probability = prediction.probability;
-    const options = [
+    const options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [
       {
         name: "Yes",
         probability: probability,
@@ -41,14 +40,10 @@ async function processPredictions(predictions) {
     const result: FetchedQuestion = {
       id,
       title: prediction.title,
-      url: `https://example.com`,
+      url: "https://example.com",
-      platform: platformName,
       description: prediction.description,
       options,
       qualityindicators: {
-        stars: calculateStars(platformName, {
-          /* some: somex, factors: factors */
-        }),
         // other: prediction.otherx,
         // indicators: prediction.indicatorx,
       },
@@ -64,9 +59,13 @@ export const example: Platform = {
   name: platformName,
   label: "Example platform",
   color: "#ff0000",
+  version: "v1",
   async fetcher() {
     let data = await fetchData();
     let results = await processPredictions(data); // somehow needed
     return results;
   },
+  calculateStars(data) {
+    return 2;
+  },
 };

src/backend/platforms/betfair.ts

@@ -2,16 +2,16 @@
 import axios from "axios";
 import https from "https";
 
-import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
+import { average } from "../../utils";
 import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
 
 const platformName = "betfair";
 
 /* Definitions */
-let endpoint = process.env.SECRET_BETFAIR_ENDPOINT;
+const endpoint = process.env.SECRET_BETFAIR_ENDPOINT;
 
 /* Utilities */
-let arraysEqual = (a, b) => {
+const arraysEqual = (a: string[], b: string[]) => {
   if (a === b) return true;
   if (a == null || b == null) return false;
   if (a.length !== b.length) return false;
@@ -26,7 +26,8 @@ let arraysEqual = (a, b) => {
   }
   return true;
 };
-let mergeRunners = (runnerCatalog, runnerBook) => {
+
+const mergeRunners = (runnerCatalog: any, runnerBook: any) => {
   let keys = Object.keys(runnerCatalog);
   let result = [];
   for (let key of keys) {
@@ -41,19 +42,16 @@ async function fetchPredictions() {
   const agent = new https.Agent({
     rejectUnauthorized: false,
   });
-  let response = await axios({
+  const response = await axios({
     url: endpoint,
     method: "GET",
-    headers: {
-      "Content-Type": "text/html",
-    },
     httpsAgent: agent,
   }).then((response) => response.data);
 
   return response;
 }
 
-async function whipIntoShape(data) {
+async function whipIntoShape(data: any) {
   let catalogues = data.market_catalogues;
   let books = data.market_books;
   let keys1 = Object.keys(catalogues).sort();
@@ -77,7 +75,7 @@ async function whipIntoShape(data) {
   return results;
 }
 
-async function processPredictions(data) {
+async function processPredictions(data: any) {
   let predictions = await whipIntoShape(data);
   // console.log(JSON.stringify(predictions, null, 4))
   let results: FetchedQuestion[] = predictions.map((prediction) => {
@@ -86,13 +84,17 @@ async function processPredictions(data) {
     } */
     let id = `${platformName}-${prediction.marketId}`;
     let normalizationFactor = prediction.options
-      .filter((option) => option.status == "ACTIVE" && option.totalMatched > 0)
+      .filter(
-      .map((option) => option.lastPriceTraded)
+        (option: any) => option.status == "ACTIVE" && option.totalMatched > 0
-      .map((x) => 1 / x)
+      )
-      .reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
+      .map((option: any) => option.lastPriceTraded)
+      .map((x: any) => 1 / x)
+      .reduce((a: any, b: any) => a + b, 0);
     let options = prediction.options
-      .filter((option) => option.status == "ACTIVE" && option.totalMatched > 0)
+      .filter(
-      .map((option) => ({
+        (option: any) => option.status == "ACTIVE" && option.totalMatched > 0
+      )
+      .map((option: any) => ({
         name: option.runnerName,
         probability:
           option.lastPriceTraded != 0
@@ -114,22 +116,19 @@ async function processPredictions(data) {
     if (rules == undefined) {
       // console.log(prediction.description)
     }
+
     let title = rules.split("? ")[0] + "?";
     let description = rules.split("? ")[1].trim();
     if (title.includes("of the named")) {
       title = prediction.marketName + ": " + title;
     }
-    let result = {
+    const result: FetchedQuestion = {
-      id: id,
+      id,
-      title: title,
+      title,
       url: `https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/${prediction.marketId}`,
-      platform: platformName,
+      description,
-      description: description,
+      options,
-      options: options,
       qualityindicators: {
-        stars: calculateStars(platformName, {
-          volume: prediction.totalMatched,
-        }),
         volume: prediction.totalMatched,
       },
     };
@@ -142,9 +141,31 @@ export const betfair: Platform = {
   name: platformName,
   label: "Betfair",
   color: "#3d674a",
+  version: "v1",
   async fetcher() {
     const data = await fetchPredictions();
-    const results = await processPredictions(data); // somehow needed
+    const results = await processPredictions(data);
     return results;
   },
+  calculateStars(data) {
+    const volume = data.qualityindicators.volume || 0;
+    let nuno = () => (volume > 10000 ? 4 : volume > 1000 ? 3 : 2);
+    let eli = () => (volume > 10000 ? null : null);
+    let misha = () => null;
+    let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(), misha()])
+
+    const firstOption = data.options[0];
+
+    // Substract 1 star if probability is above 90% or below 10%
+    if (
+      firstOption &&
+      ((firstOption.probability || 0) < 0.1 ||
+        (firstOption.probability || 0) > 0.9)
+    ) {
+      starsDecimal = starsDecimal - 1;
+    }
+
+    let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
+    return starsInteger;
+  },
 };

src/backend/platforms/fantasyscotus.ts

@@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
 /* Imports */
 import axios from "axios";
 
-import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
 import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
 
 const platformName = "fantasyscotus";
@@ -30,7 +29,7 @@ async function fetchData() {
   return response;
 }
 
-async function getPredictionsData(caseUrl) {
+async function getPredictionsData(caseUrl: string) {
   let newCaseUrl = `https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions${caseUrl}?filterscount=0&groupscount=0&sortdatafield=username&sortorder=asc&pagenum=0&pagesize=20&recordstartindex=0&recordendindex=20&_=${unixtime}`;
   //console.log(newCaseUrl)
   let predictions = await axios({
@@ -50,7 +49,7 @@ async function getPredictionsData(caseUrl) {
   }).then((res) => res.data);
 
   let predictionsAffirm = predictions.filter(
-    (prediction) => prediction.percent_affirm > 50
+    (prediction: any) => prediction.percent_affirm > 50
   );
   //console.log(predictions)
   //console.log(predictionsAffirm.length/predictions.length)
@@ -62,7 +61,7 @@ async function getPredictionsData(caseUrl) {
   };
 }
 
-async function processData(data) {
+async function processData(data: any) {
   let events = data.object_list;
   let historicalPercentageCorrect = data.stats.pcnt_correct;
   let historicalProbabilityCorrect =
@@ -79,7 +78,6 @@ async function processData(data) {
         id: id,
         title: `In ${event.short_name}, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision`,
         url: `https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions${event.docket_url}`,
-        platform: platformName,
         description: `${(pAffirm * 100).toFixed(2)}% (${
           predictionData.numAffirm
         } out of ${
@@ -101,7 +99,6 @@ async function processData(data) {
         ],
         qualityindicators: {
           numforecasts: Number(predictionData.numForecasts),
-          stars: calculateStars(platformName, {}),
         },
       };
       results.push(eventObject);
@@ -116,9 +113,13 @@ export const fantasyscotus: Platform = {
   name: platformName,
   label: "FantasySCOTUS",
   color: "#231149",
+  version: "v1",
   async fetcher() {
     let rawData = await fetchData();
     let results = await processData(rawData);
     return results;
   },
+  calculateStars(data) {
+    return 2;
+  },
 };

src/backend/platforms/foretold.ts

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 /* Imports */
 import axios from "axios";
 
-import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
+import { average } from "../../utils";
 import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
 
 /* Definitions */
@@ -18,8 +18,10 @@ let highQualityCommunities = [
 ];
 
 /* Support functions */
-async function fetchAllCommunityQuestions(communityId) {
+async function fetchAllCommunityQuestions(communityId: string) {
-  let response = await axios({
+  // TODO - fetch foretold graphql schema to type the result properly?
+  // (should be doable with graphql-code-generator, why not)
+  const response = await axios({
     url: graphQLendpoint,
     method: "POST",
     headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" },
@@ -30,10 +32,10 @@ async function fetchAllCommunityQuestions(communityId) {
           channelId: "${communityId}",
           states: OPEN,
           first: 500
-        ){
+        ) {
           total
-          edges{
+          edges {
-            node{
+            node {
               id
               name
               valueType
@@ -52,14 +54,15 @@ async function fetchAllCommunityQuestions(communityId) {
   })
     .then((res) => res.data)
     .then((res) => res.data.measurables.edges);
-  //console.log(response)
+
-  return response;
+  return response as any[];
 }
 
 export const foretold: Platform = {
   name: platformName,
   label: "Foretold",
   color: "#62520b",
+  version: "v1",
   async fetcher() {
     let results: FetchedQuestion[] = [];
     for (let community of highQualityCommunities) {
@@ -67,10 +70,11 @@ export const foretold: Platform = {
       questions = questions.map((question) => question.node);
       questions = questions.filter((question) => question.previousAggregate); // Questions without any predictions
       questions.forEach((question) => {
-        let id = `${platformName}-${question.id}`;
+        const id = `${platformName}-${question.id}`;
-        let options = [];
+
+        let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [];
         if (question.valueType == "PERCENTAGE") {
-          let probability = question.previousAggregate.value.percentage;
+          const probability = question.previousAggregate.value.percentage;
           options = [
             {
               name: "Yes",
@@ -84,16 +88,15 @@ export const foretold: Platform = {
             },
           ];
         }
-        let result: FetchedQuestion = {
+
+        const result: FetchedQuestion = {
           id,
           title: question.name,
           url: `https://www.foretold.io/c/${community}/m/${question.id}`,
-          platform: platformName,
           description: "",
           options,
           qualityindicators: {
             numforecasts: Math.floor(Number(question.measurementCount) / 2),
-            stars: calculateStars(platformName, {}),
           },
           /*liquidity: liquidity.toFixed(2),
           tradevolume: tradevolume.toFixed(2),
@@ -105,4 +108,12 @@ export const foretold: Platform = {
     }
     return results;
   },
+  calculateStars(data) {
+    let nuno = () => 2;
+    let eli = () => null;
+    let misha = () => null;
+    let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(), misha()])
+    let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
+    return starsInteger;
+  },
 };

src/backend/platforms/givewellopenphil.ts

@@ -2,14 +2,14 @@
 import axios from "axios";
 import fs from "fs";
 
-import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
+import { average } from "../../utils";
 import { Platform } from "./";
 
 const platformName = "givewellopenphil";
 
 /* Support functions */
-async function fetchPage(url: string) {
+async function fetchPage(url: string): Promise<string> {
-  let response = await axios({
+  const response = await axios({
     url: url,
     method: "GET",
     headers: {
@@ -53,9 +53,7 @@ async function main1() {
       platform: platformName,
       description,
       options: [],
-      qualityindicators: {
+      qualityindicators: {},
-        stars: calculateStars(platformName, {}),
-      },
     }; // Note: This requires some processing afterwards
     // console.log(result)
     results.push(result);
@@ -70,6 +68,7 @@ export const givewellopenphil: Platform = {
   name: platformName,
   label: "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
   color: "#32407e",
+  version: "v1",
   async fetcher() {
     // main1()
     return; // not necessary to refill the DB every time
@@ -84,4 +83,12 @@ export const givewellopenphil: Platform = {
     }));
     return dataWithDate;
   },
+  calculateStars(data) {
+    let nuno = () => 2;
+    let eli = () => null;
+    let misha = () => null;
+    let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(), misha()])
+    let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
+    return starsInteger;
+  },
 };

src/backend/platforms/goodjudgment.ts

@@ -1,27 +1,24 @@
 /* Imports */
 import axios from "axios";
 import { Tabletojson } from "tabletojson";
-import tunnel from "tunnel";
 
+import { average } from "../../utils";
 import { hash } from "../utils/hash";
-import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
 import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
 
 /* Definitions */
 const platformName = "goodjudgment";
-let endpoint = "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/";
+const endpoint = "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/";
-String.prototype.replaceAll = function replaceAll(search, replace) {
-  return this.split(search).join(replace);
-};
 
 /* Body */
 export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
   name: platformName,
   label: "Good Judgment",
   color: "#7d4f1b",
+  version: "v1",
   async fetcher() {
     // Proxy fuckery
-    let proxy;
+    // let proxy;
     /*
 	 * try {
     proxy = await axios
@@ -32,19 +29,19 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
     console.log("Proxy generation failed; using backup proxy instead");
     // hard-coded backup proxy
 		*/
-    proxy = {
+    // proxy = {
-      ip: process.env.BACKUP_PROXY_IP,
+    //   ip: process.env.BACKUP_PROXY_IP,
-      port: process.env.BACKUP_PROXY_PORT,
+    //   port: process.env.BACKUP_PROXY_PORT,
-    };
+    // };
-    // }
+    // // }
-    let agent = tunnel.httpsOverHttp({
+    // let agent = tunnel.httpsOverHttp({
-      proxy: {
+    //   proxy: {
-        host: proxy.ip,
+    //     host: proxy.ip,
-        port: proxy.port,
+    //     port: proxy.port,
-      },
+    //   },
-    });
+    // });
 
-    let content = await axios
+    const content = await axios
       .request({
         url: "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
         method: "get",
@@ -61,17 +58,16 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
     let jsonTable = Tabletojson.convert(content, { stripHtmlFromCells: false });
     jsonTable.shift(); // deletes first element
     jsonTable.pop(); // deletes last element
-    // console.log(jsonTable)
+
     for (let table of jsonTable) {
-      // console.log(table)
       let title = table[0]["0"].split("\t\t\t").splice(3)[0];
       if (title != undefined) {
         title = title.replaceAll("</a>", "");
-        let id = `${platformName}-${hash(title)}`;
+        const id = `${platformName}-${hash(title)}`;
-        let description = table
+        const description = table
-          .filter((row) => row["0"].includes("BACKGROUND:"))
+          .filter((row: any) => row["0"].includes("BACKGROUND:"))
-          .map((row) => row["0"])
+          .map((row: any) => row["0"])
-          .map((text) =>
+          .map((text: any) =>
             text
               .split("BACKGROUND:")[1]
               .split("Examples of Superforecaster")[0]
@@ -83,16 +79,16 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
               .replaceAll("      ", "")
               .replaceAll("<br> ", "")
           )[0];
-        let options = table
+        const options = table
-          .filter((row) => "4" in row)
+          .filter((row: any) => "4" in row)
-          .map((row) => ({
+          .map((row: any) => ({
             name: row["2"]
               .split('<span class="qTitle">')[1]
               .replace("</span>", ""),
             probability: Number(row["3"].split("%")[0]) / 100,
             type: "PROBABILITY",
           }));
-        let analysis = table.filter((row) =>
+        let analysis = table.filter((row: any) =>
           row[0] ? row[0].toLowerCase().includes("commentary") : false
         );
         // "Examples of Superforecaster Commentary" / Analysis
@@ -104,12 +100,9 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
           id,
           title,
           url: endpoint,
-          platform: platformName,
           description,
           options,
-          qualityindicators: {
+          qualityindicators: {},
-            stars: calculateStars(platformName, {}),
-          },
           extra: {
             superforecastercommentary: analysis || "",
           },
@@ -124,4 +117,12 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
 
     return results;
   },
+  calculateStars(data) {
+    let nuno = () => 4;
+    let eli = () => 4;
+    let misha = () => 3.5;
+    let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(), misha()])
+    let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
+    return starsInteger;
+  },
 };

src/backend/platforms/goodjudgmentopen.ts

@@ -2,16 +2,17 @@
 import axios from "axios";
 import { Tabletojson } from "tabletojson";
 
+import { average } from "../../utils";
 import { applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets";
-import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
+import { sleep } from "../utils/sleep";
 import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
-import { Platform } from "./";
+import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
 
 /* Definitions */
 const platformName = "goodjudgmentopen";
 
-let htmlEndPoint = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions?page=";
+const htmlEndPoint = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions?page=";
-let annoyingPromptUrls = [
+const annoyingPromptUrls = [
   "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1933-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen",
   "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1779-are-there-any-forecasting-tips-tricks-and-experiences-you-would-like-to-share-and-or-discuss-with-your-fellow-forecasters",
   "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2246-are-there-any-forecasting-tips-tricks-and-experiences-you-would-like-to-share-and-or-discuss-with-your-fellow-forecasters-2022-thread",
@@ -22,12 +23,11 @@ const id = () => 0;
 
 /* Support functions */
 
-async function fetchPage(page, cookie) {
+async function fetchPage(page: number, cookie: string) {
-  let response = await axios({
+  const response: string = await axios({
     url: htmlEndPoint + page,
     method: "GET",
     headers: {
-      "Content-Type": "text/html",
       Cookie: cookie,
     },
   }).then((res) => res.data);
@@ -35,12 +35,11 @@ async function fetchPage(page, cookie) {
   return response;
 }
 
-async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
+async function fetchStats(questionUrl: string, cookie: string) {
-  let response = await axios({
+  let response: string = await axios({
     url: questionUrl + "/stats",
     method: "GET",
     headers: {
-      "Content-Type": "text/html",
       Cookie: cookie,
       Referer: questionUrl,
     },
@@ -50,7 +49,7 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
   // Is binary?
   let isbinary = response.includes("binary?":true");
 
-  let options = [];
+  let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [];
   if (isbinary) {
     // Crowd percentage
     let htmlElements = response.split("\n");
@@ -74,7 +73,7 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
     let optionsHtmlElement = "<table" + response.split("tbody")[1] + "table>";
     let tablesAsJson = Tabletojson.convert(optionsHtmlElement);
     let firstTable = tablesAsJson[0];
-    options = firstTable.map((element) => ({
+    options = firstTable.map((element: any) => ({
       name: element["0"],
       probability: Number(element["1"].replace("%", "")) / 100,
       type: "PROBABILITY",
@@ -107,21 +106,12 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
     .split(",")[0];
   //console.log(numpredictors)
 
-  // Calculate the stars
-  let minProbability = Math.min(...options.map((option) => option.probability));
-  let maxProbability = Math.max(...options.map((option) => option.probability));
-
   let result = {
-    description: description,
+    description,
-    options: options,
+    options,
     qualityindicators: {
       numforecasts: Number(numforecasts),
       numforecasters: Number(numforecasters),
-      stars: calculateStars("Good Judgment Open", {
-        numforecasts,
-        minProbability,
-        maxProbability,
-      }),
     },
     // this mismatches the code below, and needs to be fixed, but I'm doing typescript conversion and don't want to touch any logic for now
   } as any;
@@ -129,7 +119,7 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
   return result;
 }
 
-function isSignedIn(html) {
+function isSignedIn(html: string) {
   let isSignedInBool = !(
     html.includes("You need to sign in or sign up before continuing") ||
     html.includes("Sign up")
@@ -142,7 +132,7 @@ function isSignedIn(html) {
   return isSignedInBool;
 }
 
-function reachedEnd(html) {
+function reachedEnd(html: string) {
   let reachedEndBool = html.includes("No questions match your filter");
   if (reachedEndBool) {
     //console.log(html)
@@ -151,13 +141,9 @@ function reachedEnd(html) {
   return reachedEndBool;
 }
 
-function sleep(ms: number) {
-  return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
-}
-
 /* Body */
 
-async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie) {
+async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie: string) {
   let i = 1;
   let response = await fetchPage(i, cookie);
 
@@ -185,7 +171,11 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie) {
             }
           }
           let questionNumRegex = new RegExp("questions/([0-9]+)");
-          let questionNum = url.match(questionNumRegex)[1]; //.split("questions/")[1].split("-")[0];
+          const questionNumMatch = url.match(questionNumRegex);
+          if (!questionNumMatch) {
+            throw new Error(`Couldn't find question num in ${url}`);
+          }
+          let questionNum = questionNumMatch[1];
           let id = `${platformName}-${questionNum}`;
           let question = {
             id: id,
@@ -241,8 +231,26 @@ export const goodjudgmentopen: Platform = {
   name: platformName,
   label: "Good Judgment Open",
   color: "#002455",
+  version: "v1",
   async fetcher() {
     let cookie = process.env.GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE;
-    return await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, goodjudgmentopen_inner);
+    return (await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, goodjudgmentopen_inner)) || null;
+  },
+  calculateStars(data) {
+    let minProbability = Math.min(
+      ...data.options.map((option) => option.probability || 0)
+    );
+    let maxProbability = Math.max(
+      ...data.options.map((option) => option.probability || 0)
+    );
+
+    let nuno = () => ((data.qualityindicators.numforecasts || 0) > 100 ? 3 : 2);
+    let eli = () => 3;
+    let misha = () =>
+      minProbability > 0.1 || maxProbability < 0.9 ? 3.1 : 2.5;
+
+    let starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]);
+    let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
+    return starsInteger;
   },
 };

src/backend/platforms/guesstimate.ts

@@ -1,12 +1,10 @@
 import axios from "axios";
-import { parseISO } from "date-fns";
 
-/* Imports */
 import { Question } from "@prisma/client";
 
-import { AlgoliaQuestion } from "../../backend/utils/algolia";
 import { prisma } from "../database/prisma";
-import { Platform } from "./";
+import { AlgoliaQuestion } from "../utils/algolia";
+import { FetchedQuestion, Platform, prepareQuestion } from "./";
 
 /* Definitions */
 const searchEndpoint =
@@ -14,25 +12,20 @@ const searchEndpoint =
 
 const apiEndpoint = "https://guesstimate.herokuapp.com";
 
-/* Body */
+const modelToQuestion = (model: any): ReturnType<typeof prepareQuestion> => {
-
-const modelToQuestion = (model: any): Question => {
   const { description } = model;
   // const description = model.description
   //   ? model.description.replace(/\n/g, " ").replace(/  /g, " ")
   //   : "";
-  const stars = description.length > 250 ? 2 : 1;
+  // const timestamp = parseISO(model.created_at);
-  const timestamp = parseISO(model.created_at);
+  const fq: FetchedQuestion = {
-  const q: Question = {
     id: `guesstimate-${model.id}`,
     title: model.name,
     url: `https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/${model.id}`,
-    timestamp,
+    // timestamp,
-    platform: "guesstimate",
     description,
     options: [],
     qualityindicators: {
-      stars,
       numforecasts: 1,
       numforecasters: 1,
     },
@@ -41,6 +34,7 @@ const modelToQuestion = (model: any): Question => {
     },
     // ranking: 10 * (index + 1) - 0.5, //(model._rankingInfo - 1*index)// hack
   };
+  const q = prepareQuestion(fq, guesstimate);
   return q;
 };
 
@@ -68,7 +62,7 @@ async function search(query: string): Promise<AlgoliaQuestion[]> {
   });
 
   // filter for duplicates. Surprisingly common.
-  let uniqueTitles = [];
+  let uniqueTitles: string[] = [];
   let uniqueModels: AlgoliaQuestion[] = [];
   for (let model of mappedModels) {
     if (!uniqueTitles.includes(model.title) && !model.title.includes("copy")) {
@@ -83,12 +77,11 @@ async function search(query: string): Promise<AlgoliaQuestion[]> {
 const fetchQuestion = async (id: number): Promise<Question> => {
   const response = await axios({ url: `${apiEndpoint}/spaces/${id}` });
   let q = modelToQuestion(response.data);
-  q = await prisma.question.upsert({
+  return await prisma.question.upsert({
     where: { id: q.id },
     create: q,
     update: q,
   });
-  return q;
 };
 
 export const guesstimate: Platform & {
@@ -99,5 +92,7 @@ export const guesstimate: Platform & {
   label: "Guesstimate",
   color: "#223900",
   search,
+  version: "v1",
   fetchQuestion,
+  calculateStars: (q) => (q.description.length > 250 ? 2 : 1),
 };

src/backend/platforms/index.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 import { Question } from "@prisma/client";
 
+import { QuestionOption } from "../../common/types";
 import { prisma } from "../database/prisma";
 import { betfair } from "./betfair";
 import { fantasyscotus } from "./fantasyscotus";
@@ -41,32 +42,51 @@ export interface QualityIndicators {
 
 export type FetchedQuestion = Omit<
   Question,
-  "extra" | "qualityindicators" | "timestamp"
+  "extra" | "qualityindicators" | "timestamp" | "platform" | "options"
 > & {
   timestamp?: Date;
   extra?: object; // required in DB but annoying to return empty; also this is slightly stricter than Prisma's JsonValue
-  qualityindicators: QualityIndicators; // slightly stronger type than Prisma's JsonValue
+  options: QuestionOption[]; // stronger type than Prisma's JsonValue
+  qualityindicators: Omit<QualityIndicators, "stars">; // slightly stronger type than Prisma's JsonValue
 };
 
 // fetcher should return null if platform failed to fetch questions for some reason
-export type PlatformFetcher = () => Promise<FetchedQuestion[] | null>;
+type PlatformFetcherV1 = () => Promise<FetchedQuestion[] | null>;
 
-export interface Platform {
+type PlatformFetcherV2Result = {
+  questions: FetchedQuestion[];
+  // if partial is true then we won't cleanup old questions from the database; this is useful when manually invoking a fetcher with arguments for updating a single question
+  partial: boolean;
+} | null;
+
+type PlatformFetcherV2<ArgNames extends string> = (opts: {
+  args?: { [k in ArgNames]: string };
+}) => Promise<PlatformFetcherV2Result>;
+
+export type PlatformFetcher<ArgNames extends string> =
+  | PlatformFetcherV1
+  | PlatformFetcherV2<ArgNames>;
+
+// using "" as ArgNames default is technically incorrect, but shouldn't cause any real issues
+// (I couldn't find a better solution for signifying an empty value, though there probably is one)
+export type Platform<ArgNames extends string = ""> = {
   name: string; // short name for ids and `platform` db column, e.g. "xrisk"
   label: string; // longer name for displaying on frontend etc., e.g. "X-risk estimates"
   color: string; // used on frontend
-  fetcher?: PlatformFetcher;
+  calculateStars: (question: FetchedQuestion) => number;
-}
+} & (
+  | {
+      version: "v1";
+      fetcher?: PlatformFetcherV1;
+    }
+  | {
+      version: "v2";
+      fetcherArgs?: ArgNames[];
+      fetcher?: PlatformFetcherV2<ArgNames>;
+    }
+);
 
-// draft for the future callback-based streaming/chunking API:
+export const platforms: Platform<string>[] = [
-// interface FetchOptions {
-//   since?: string; // some kind of cursor, Date object or opaque string?
-//   save: (questions: Question[]) => Promise<void>;
-// }
-
-// export type PlatformFetcher = (options: FetchOptions) => Promise<void>;
-
-export const platforms: Platform[] = [
   betfair,
   fantasyscotus,
   foretold,
@@ -86,26 +106,59 @@ export const platforms: Platform[] = [
   xrisk,
 ];
 
-export const processPlatform = async (platform: Platform) => {
+// Typing notes:
+// There's a difference between prisma's Question type (type returned from `find` and `findMany`) and its input types due to JsonValue vs InputJsonValue mismatch.
+// On the other hand, we can't use Prisma.QuestionUpdateInput or Prisma.QuestionCreateManyInput either, because we use this question in guesstimate's code for preparing questions from guesstimate models...
+// So here we build a new type which should be ok to use both in place of prisma's Question type and as an input to its update or create methods.
+type PreparedQuestion = Omit<
+  Question,
+  "extra" | "qualityindicators" | "options"
+> & {
+  extra: NonNullable<Question["extra"]>;
+  qualityindicators: NonNullable<Question["qualityindicators"]>;
+  options: NonNullable<Question["options"]>;
+};
+
+export const prepareQuestion = (
+  q: FetchedQuestion,
+  platform: Platform<any>
+): PreparedQuestion => {
+  return {
+    extra: {},
+    timestamp: new Date(),
+    ...q,
+    platform: platform.name,
+    qualityindicators: {
+      ...q.qualityindicators,
+      stars: platform.calculateStars(q),
+    },
+  };
+};
+
+export const processPlatform = async <T extends string = "">(
+  platform: Platform<T>,
+  args?: { [k in T]: string }
+) => {
   if (!platform.fetcher) {
     console.log(`Platform ${platform.name} doesn't have a fetcher, skipping`);
     return;
   }
-  const fetchedQuestions = await platform.fetcher();
+  const result =
-  if (!fetchedQuestions || !fetchedQuestions.length) {
+    platform.version === "v1"
+      ? { questions: await platform.fetcher(), partial: false } // this is not exactly PlatformFetcherV2Result, since `questions` can be null
+      : await platform.fetcher({ args });
+
+  if (!result) {
     console.log(`Platform ${platform.name} didn't return any results`);
     return;
   }
 
-  const prepareQuestion = (q: FetchedQuestion): Question => {
+  const { questions: fetchedQuestions, partial } = result;
-    return {
+
-      extra: {},
+  if (!fetchedQuestions || !fetchedQuestions.length) {
-      timestamp: new Date(),
+    console.log(`Platform ${platform.name} didn't return any results`);
-      ...q,
+    return;
-      platform: platform.name,
+  }
-      qualityindicators: q.qualityindicators as object, // fighting typescript
-    };
-  };
 
   const oldQuestions = await prisma.question.findMany({
     where: {
@@ -119,11 +172,11 @@ export const processPlatform = async (platform: Platform) => {
   const fetchedIdsSet = new Set(fetchedIds);
   const oldIdsSet = new Set(oldIds);
 
-  const createdQuestions: Question[] = [];
+  const createdQuestions: PreparedQuestion[] = [];
-  const updatedQuestions: Question[] = [];
+  const updatedQuestions: PreparedQuestion[] = [];
   const deletedIds = oldIds.filter((id) => !fetchedIdsSet.has(id));
 
-  for (const q of fetchedQuestions.map((q) => prepareQuestion(q))) {
+  for (const q of fetchedQuestions.map((q) => prepareQuestion(q, platform))) {
     if (oldIdsSet.has(q.id)) {
       updatedQuestions.push(q);
     } else {
@@ -132,27 +185,45 @@ export const processPlatform = async (platform: Platform) => {
     }
   }
 
+  const stats: { created?: number; updated?: number; deleted?: number } = {};
+
   await prisma.question.createMany({
     data: createdQuestions,
   });
+  stats.created = createdQuestions.length;
 
   for (const q of updatedQuestions) {
     await prisma.question.update({
       where: { id: q.id },
       data: q,
     });
+    stats.updated ??= 0;
+    stats.updated++;
   }
 
-  await prisma.question.deleteMany({
+  if (!partial) {
-    where: {
+    await prisma.question.deleteMany({
-      id: {
+      where: {
-        in: deletedIds,
+        id: {
+          in: deletedIds,
+        },
       },
-    },
+    });
+    stats.deleted = deletedIds.length;
+  }
+
+  await prisma.history.createMany({
+    data: [...createdQuestions, ...updatedQuestions].map((q) => ({
+      ...q,
+      idref: q.id,
+    })),
   });
 
   console.log(
-    `Done, ${deletedIds.length} deleted, ${updatedQuestions.length} updated, ${createdQuestions.length} created`
+    "Done, " +
+      Object.entries(stats)
+        .map(([k, v]) => `${v} ${k}`)
+        .join(", ")
   );
 };
 

src/backend/platforms/infer.ts

@@ -1,38 +1,37 @@
 /* Imports */
 import axios from "axios";
 
+import { FullQuestionOption } from "../../common/types";
+import { average } from "../../utils";
 import { applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets";
 import { measureTime } from "../utils/measureTime";
-import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
+import { sleep } from "../utils/sleep";
 import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
 import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
 
 /* Definitions */
 const platformName = "infer";
-let htmlEndPoint = "https://www.infer-pub.com/questions";
+const htmlEndPoint = "https://www.infer-pub.com/questions";
-String.prototype.replaceAll = function replaceAll(search, replace) {
-  return this.split(search).join(replace);
-};
 const DEBUG_MODE: "on" | "off" = "off"; // "off"
 const SLEEP_TIME_RANDOM = 7000; // miliseconds
 const SLEEP_TIME_EXTRA = 2000;
 
 /* Support functions */
 
-function cleanDescription(text) {
+function cleanDescription(text: string) {
   let md = toMarkdown(text);
   let result = md.replaceAll("---", "-").replaceAll("  ", " ");
   return result;
 }
 
-async function fetchPage(page, cookie) {
+async function fetchPage(page: number, cookie: string) {
   console.log(`Page #${page}`);
   if (page == 1) {
     cookie = cookie.split(";")[0]; // Interesting that it otherwise doesn't work :(
   }
   let urlEndpoint = `${htmlEndPoint}/?page=${page}`;
   console.log(urlEndpoint);
-  let response = await axios({
+  const response: string = await axios({
     url: urlEndpoint,
     method: "GET",
     headers: {
@@ -44,8 +43,8 @@ async function fetchPage(page, cookie) {
   return response;
 }
 
-async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
+async function fetchStats(questionUrl: string, cookie: string) {
-  let response = await axios({
+  let response: string = await axios({
     url: questionUrl + "/stats",
     method: "GET",
     headers: {
@@ -59,7 +58,7 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
     throw Error("Not logged in");
   }
   // Init
-  let options = [];
+  let options: FullQuestionOption[] = [];
 
   // Parse the embedded json
   let htmlElements = response.split("\n");
@@ -84,7 +83,7 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
     questionType.includes("Forecast::Question") ||
     !questionType.includes("Forecast::MultiTimePeriodQuestion")
   ) {
-    options = firstEmbeddedJson.question.answers.map((answer) => ({
+    options = firstEmbeddedJson.question.answers.map((answer: any) => ({
       name: answer.name,
       probability: answer.normalized_probability,
       type: "PROBABILITY",
@@ -94,12 +93,11 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
         options[0].probability > 1
           ? 1 - options[0].probability / 100
           : 1 - options[0].probability;
-      let optionNo = {
+      options.push({
         name: "No",
         probability: probabilityNo,
         type: "PROBABILITY",
-      };
+      });
-      options.push(optionNo);
     }
   }
   let result = {
@@ -109,14 +107,13 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
       numforecasts: Number(numforecasts),
       numforecasters: Number(numforecasters),
       comments_count: Number(comments_count),
-      stars: calculateStars(platformName, { numforecasts }),
     },
   };
   // console.log(JSON.stringify(result, null, 4));
   return result;
 }
 
-function isSignedIn(html) {
+function isSignedIn(html: string) {
   let isSignedInBool = !(
     html.includes("You need to sign in or sign up before continuing") ||
     html.includes("Sign up")
@@ -128,7 +125,7 @@ function isSignedIn(html) {
   return isSignedInBool;
 }
 
-function reachedEnd(html) {
+function reachedEnd(html: string) {
   let reachedEndBool = html.includes("No questions match your filter");
   if (reachedEndBool) {
     //console.log(html)
@@ -137,10 +134,6 @@ function reachedEnd(html) {
   return reachedEndBool;
 }
 
-function sleep(ms) {
-  return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
-}
-
 /* Body */
 
 async function infer_inner(cookie: string) {
@@ -173,17 +166,18 @@ async function infer_inner(cookie: string) {
         await sleep(Math.random() * SLEEP_TIME_RANDOM + SLEEP_TIME_EXTRA); // don't be as noticeable
 
         try {
-          let moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie);
+          const moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie);
-          let questionNumRegex = new RegExp("questions/([0-9]+)");
+          const questionNumRegex = new RegExp("questions/([0-9]+)");
-          let questionNum = url.match(questionNumRegex)[1]; //.split("questions/")[1].split("-")[0];
+          const questionNumMatch = url.match(questionNumRegex);
-          let id = `${platformName}-${questionNum}`;
+          if (!questionNumMatch) {
+            throw new Error(`Couldn't find question num in ${url}`);
+          }
+          let questionNum = questionNumMatch[1];
+          const id = `${platformName}-${questionNum}`;
           let question: FetchedQuestion = {
-            id: id,
+            id,
-            title: title,
+            title,
-            description: moreinfo.description,
+            url,
-            url: url,
-            platform: platformName,
-            options: moreinfo.options,
             ...moreinfo,
           };
           console.log(JSON.stringify(question, null, 4));
@@ -236,8 +230,17 @@ export const infer: Platform = {
   name: platformName,
   label: "Infer",
   color: "#223900",
+  version: "v1",
   async fetcher() {
     let cookie = process.env.INFER_COOKIE;
-    return await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, infer_inner);
+    return (await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, infer_inner)) || null;
+  },
+  calculateStars(data) {
+    let nuno = () => 2;
+    let eli = () => null;
+    let misha = () => null;
+    let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(), misha()])
+    let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
+    return starsInteger;
   },
 };

src/backend/platforms/kalshi.ts

@@ -1,29 +1,28 @@
 /* Imports */
 import axios from "axios";
 
-import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
+import { average } from "../../utils";
 import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
 
 /* Definitions */
 const platformName = "kalshi";
-let jsonEndpoint = "https://trading-api.kalshi.com/v1/cached/markets/"; //"https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket"//"https://subgraph-backup.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket"//'https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket3'
+let jsonEndpoint = "https://trading-api.kalshi.com/v1/cached/markets/";
 
 async function fetchAllMarkets() {
-  // for info which the polymarket graphql API
   let response = await axios
     .get(jsonEndpoint)
     .then((response) => response.data.markets);
-  // console.log(response)
+
   return response;
 }
 
-async function processMarkets(markets) {
+async function processMarkets(markets: any[]) {
   let dateNow = new Date().toISOString();
   // console.log(markets)
   markets = markets.filter((market) => market.close_date > dateNow);
   let results = await markets.map((market) => {
     const probability = market.last_price / 100;
-    const options = [
+    const options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [
       {
         name: "Yes",
         probability: probability,
@@ -40,41 +39,63 @@ async function processMarkets(markets) {
       id,
       title: market.title.replaceAll("*", ""),
       url: `https://kalshi.com/markets/${market.ticker_name}`,
-      platform: platformName,
       description: `${market.settle_details}. The resolution source is: ${market.ranged_group_name} (${market.settle_source_url})`,
       options,
       qualityindicators: {
-        stars: calculateStars(platformName, {
-          shares_volume: market.volume,
-          interest: market.open_interest,
-        }),
         yes_bid: market.yes_bid,
         yes_ask: market.yes_ask,
         spread: Math.abs(market.yes_bid - market.yes_ask),
         shares_volume: market.volume, // Assuming that half of all buys are for yes and half for no, which is a big if.
         // "open_interest": market.open_interest, also in shares
       },
+      extra: {
+        open_interest: market.open_interest,
+      },
     };
     return result;
   });
-  //console.log(results.length)
+
-  // console.log(results.map(result => result.title))
-  // console.log(results.map(result => result.title).length)
   console.log([...new Set(results.map((result) => result.title))]);
   console.log(
     "Number of unique questions: ",
     [...new Set(results.map((result) => result.title))].length
   );
-  // console.log([...new Set(results.map(result => result.title))].length)
+
-  return results; //resultsProcessed
+  return results;
 }
 
 export const kalshi: Platform = {
   name: platformName,
   label: "Kalshi",
   color: "#615691",
+  version: "v1",
   fetcher: async function () {
     let markets = await fetchAllMarkets();
     return await processMarkets(markets);
   },
+  calculateStars(data) {
+    let nuno = () =>
+      ((data.extra as any)?.open_interest || 0) > 500 &&
+      data.qualityindicators.shares_volume > 10000
+        ? 4
+        : data.qualityindicators.shares_volume > 2000
+        ? 3
+        : 2;
+    // let eli = (data) => data.interest > 10000 ? 5 : 4
+    // let misha = (data) => 4
+    let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
+
+    // Substract 1 star if probability is above 90% or below 10%
+    if (
+      data.options instanceof Array &&
+      data.options[0] &&
+      ((data.options[0].probability || 0) < 0.1 ||
+        (data.options[0].probability || 0) > 0.9)
+    ) {
+      starsDecimal = starsDecimal - 1;
+    }
+
+    let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
+    return starsInteger;
+  },
 };

src/backend/platforms/manifold.ts

@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 /* Imports */
 import axios from "axios";
 
-import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
+import { average } from "../../utils";
 import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
 
 /* Definitions */
 const platformName = "manifold";
-let endpoint = "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/markets";
+const endpoint = "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/markets";
 // See https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Markets-API-5e7d0aef4dcf452bb04b319e178fabc5
 
 /* Support functions */
@@ -25,16 +25,16 @@ async function fetchData() {
 
 function showStatistics(results: FetchedQuestion[]) {
   console.log(`Num unresolved markets: ${results.length}`);
-  let sum = (arr) => arr.reduce((tally, a) => tally + a, 0);
+  let sum = (arr: number[]) => arr.reduce((tally, a) => tally + a, 0);
   let num2StarsOrMore = results.filter(
-    (result) => result.qualityindicators.stars >= 2
+    (result) => manifold.calculateStars(result) >= 2
   );
   console.log(
     `Manifold has ${num2StarsOrMore.length} markets with 2 stars or more`
   );
   console.log(
     `Mean volume: ${
-      sum(results.map((result) => result.qualityindicators.volume7Days)) /
+      sum(results.map((result) => result.qualityindicators.volume7Days || 0)) /
       results.length
     }; mean pool: ${
       sum(results.map((result) => result.qualityindicators.pool)) /
@@ -43,11 +43,11 @@ function showStatistics(results: FetchedQuestion[]) {
   );
 }
 
-async function processPredictions(predictions) {
+function processPredictions(predictions: any[]): FetchedQuestion[] {
-  let results: FetchedQuestion[] = await predictions.map((prediction) => {
+  let results: FetchedQuestion[] = predictions.map((prediction) => {
     let id = `${platformName}-${prediction.id}`; // oops, doesn't match platform name
     let probability = prediction.probability;
-    let options = [
+    let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [
       {
         name: "Yes",
         probability: probability,
@@ -63,15 +63,9 @@ async function processPredictions(predictions) {
       id: id,
       title: prediction.question,
       url: prediction.url,
-      platform: platformName,
       description: prediction.description,
-      options: options,
+      options,
       qualityindicators: {
-        stars: calculateStars(platformName, {
-          volume7Days: prediction.volume7Days,
-          volume24Hours: prediction.volume24Hours,
-          pool: prediction.pool,
-        }),
         createdTime: prediction.createdTime,
         volume7Days: prediction.volume7Days,
         volume24Hours: prediction.volume24Hours,
@@ -94,10 +88,24 @@ export const manifold: Platform = {
   name: platformName,
   label: "Manifold Markets",
   color: "#793466",
+  version: "v1",
   async fetcher() {
     let data = await fetchData();
-    let results = await processPredictions(data); // somehow needed
+    let results = processPredictions(data); // somehow needed
     showStatistics(results);
     return results;
   },
+  calculateStars(data) {
+    let nuno = () =>
+      (data.qualityindicators.volume7Days || 0) > 250 ||
+      ((data.qualityindicators.pool || 0) > 500 &&
+        (data.qualityindicators.volume7Days || 0) > 100)
+        ? 2
+        : 1;
+    let eli = () => null;
+    let misha = () => null;
+    let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
+    let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
+    return starsInteger;
+  },
 };

src/backend/platforms/metaculus.ts

@@ -1,18 +1,19 @@
 /* Imports */
 import axios from "axios";
 
-import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
+import { average } from "../../utils";
+import { sleep } from "../utils/sleep";
 import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
 import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
 
 /* Definitions */
 const platformName = "metaculus";
-let jsonEndPoint = "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?page=";
 let now = new Date().toISOString();
 let DEBUG_MODE = "off";
 let SLEEP_TIME = 5000;
+
 /* Support functions */
-async function fetchMetaculusQuestions(next) {
+async function fetchMetaculusQuestions(next: string) {
   // Numbers about a given address: how many, how much, at what price, etc.
   let response;
   let data;
@@ -24,15 +25,17 @@ async function fetchMetaculusQuestions(next) {
     });
     data = response.data;
   } catch (error) {
-    console.log(`Error in  async function fetchMetaculusQuestions(next)`);
+    console.log(`Error in async function fetchMetaculusQuestions(next)`);
-    if (!!error.response.headers["retry-after"]) {
-      let timeout = error.response.headers["retry-after"];
-      console.log(`Timeout: ${timeout}`);
-      await sleep(Number(timeout) * 1000 + SLEEP_TIME);
-    } else {
-      await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
-    }
     console.log(error);
+    if (axios.isAxiosError(error)) {
+      if (error.response?.headers["retry-after"]) {
+        const timeout = error.response.headers["retry-after"];
+        console.log(`Timeout: ${timeout}`);
+        await sleep(Number(timeout) * 1000 + SLEEP_TIME);
+      } else {
+        await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
+      }
+    }
   } finally {
     try {
       response = await axios({
@@ -50,11 +53,7 @@ async function fetchMetaculusQuestions(next) {
   return data;
 }
 
-function sleep(ms: number) {
+async function fetchMetaculusQuestionDescription(slug: string) {
-  return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
-}
-
-async function fetchMetaculusQuestionDescription(slug) {
   try {
     let response = await axios({
       method: "get",
@@ -67,11 +66,12 @@ async function fetchMetaculusQuestionDescription(slug) {
       `We encountered some error when attempting to fetch a metaculus page. Trying again`
     );
     if (
+      axios.isAxiosError(error) &&
       typeof error.response != "undefined" &&
       typeof error.response.headers != "undefined" &&
       typeof error.response.headers["retry-after"] != "undefined"
     ) {
-      let timeout = error.response.headers["retry-after"];
+      const timeout = error.response.headers["retry-after"];
       console.log(`Timeout: ${timeout}`);
       await sleep(Number(timeout) * 1000 + SLEEP_TIME);
     } else {
@@ -98,6 +98,7 @@ export const metaculus: Platform = {
   name: platformName,
   label: "Metaculus",
   color: "#006669",
+  version: "v1",
   async fetcher() {
     // let metaculusQuestionsInit = await fetchMetaculusQuestions(1)
     // let numQueries = Math.round(Number(metaculusQuestionsInit.count) / 20)
@@ -131,7 +132,7 @@ export const metaculus: Platform = {
             let description = descriptionprocessed2;
 
             let isbinary = result.possibilities.type == "binary";
-            let options = [];
+            let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [];
             if (isbinary) {
               let probability = Number(result.community_prediction.full.q2);
               options = [
@@ -152,14 +153,10 @@ export const metaculus: Platform = {
               id,
               title: result.title,
               url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + result.page_url,
-              platform: platformName,
               description,
               options,
               qualityindicators: {
                 numforecasts: Number(result.number_of_predictions),
-                stars: calculateStars(platformName, {
-                  numforecasts: result.number_of_predictions,
-                }),
               },
               extra: {
                 resolution_data: {
@@ -194,4 +191,15 @@ export const metaculus: Platform = {
 
     return all_questions;
   },
+
+  calculateStars(data) {
+    const { numforecasts } = data.qualityindicators;
+    let nuno = () =>
+      (numforecasts || 0) > 300 ? 4 : (numforecasts || 0) > 100 ? 3 : 2;
+    let eli = () => 3;
+    let misha = () => 3;
+    let starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]);
+    let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
+    return starsInteger;
+  },
 };

src/backend/platforms/polymarket.ts

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 /* Imports */
 import axios from "axios";
 
-import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
+import { average } from "../../utils";
 import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
 
 /* Definitions */
 const platformName = "polymarket";
-let graphQLendpoint =
+const graphQLendpoint =
-  "https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/polymarket/matic-markets-5"; // "https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/polymarket/matic-markets-4"// "https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/tokenunion/polymarket-matic"//"https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket"//"https://subgraph-backup.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket"//'https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket3'
+  "https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/polymarket/matic-markets-5";
 let units = 10 ** 6;
 
 async function fetchAllContractInfo() {
@@ -18,11 +18,11 @@ async function fetchAllContractInfo() {
       // "https://strapi-matic.poly.market/markets?active=true&_sort=volume:desc&_limit=-1" to get all markets, including closed ones
     )
     .then((query) => query.data);
-  response = response.filter((res) => res.closed != true);
+  response = response.filter((res: any) => res.closed != true);
   return response;
 }
 
-async function fetchIndividualContractData(marketMakerAddress) {
+async function fetchIndividualContractData(marketMakerAddress: string) {
   let daysSinceEra = Math.round(Date.now() / (1000 * 24 * 60 * 60)) - 7; // last week
   let response = await axios({
     url: graphQLendpoint,
@@ -59,7 +59,7 @@ async function fetchIndividualContractData(marketMakerAddress) {
   })
     .then((res) => res.data)
     .then((res) => res.data.fixedProductMarketMakers);
-  // console.log(response)
+
   return response;
 }
 
@@ -67,6 +67,7 @@ export const polymarket: Platform = {
   name: platformName,
   label: "PolyMarket",
   color: "#00314e",
+  version: "v1",
   async fetcher() {
     let results: FetchedQuestion[] = [];
     let webpageEndpointData = await fetchAllContractInfo();
@@ -93,11 +94,11 @@ export const polymarket: Platform = {
           // let isbinary = Number(moreMarketInfo.conditions[0].outcomeSlotCount) == 2
           // let percentage = Number(moreMarketInfo.outcomeTokenPrices[0]) * 100
           // let percentageFormatted = isbinary ? (percentage.toFixed(0) + "%") : "none"
-          let options = [];
+          let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [];
           for (let outcome in moreMarketInfo.outcomeTokenPrices) {
             options.push({
-              name: marketInfo.outcomes[outcome],
+              name: String(marketInfo.outcomes[outcome]),
-              probability: moreMarketInfo.outcomeTokenPrices[outcome],
+              probability: Number(moreMarketInfo.outcomeTokenPrices[outcome]),
               type: "PROBABILITY",
             });
           }
@@ -106,18 +107,12 @@ export const polymarket: Platform = {
             id: id,
             title: marketInfo.question,
             url: "https://polymarket.com/market/" + marketInfo.slug,
-            platform: platformName,
             description: marketInfo.description,
-            options: options,
+            options,
             qualityindicators: {
               numforecasts: numforecasts.toFixed(0),
               liquidity: liquidity.toFixed(2),
               tradevolume: tradevolume.toFixed(2),
-              stars: calculateStars(platformName, {
-                liquidity,
-                option: options[0],
-                volume: tradevolume,
-              }),
             },
             extra: {
               address: marketInfo.address,
@@ -133,4 +128,33 @@ export const polymarket: Platform = {
     }
     return results;
   },
+  calculateStars(data) {
+    // let nuno = (data) => (data.volume > 10000 ? 4 : data.volume > 1000 ? 3 : 2);
+    // let eli = (data) => data.liquidity > 10000 ? 5 : 4
+    // let misha = (data) => 4
+
+    const liquidity = data.qualityindicators.liquidity || 0;
+    const volume = data.qualityindicators.tradevolume || 0;
+
+    let nuno = () =>
+      liquidity > 1000 && volume > 10000
+        ? 4
+        : liquidity > 500 && volume > 1000
+        ? 3
+        : 2;
+    let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
+
+    // Substract 1 star if probability is above 90% or below 10%
+    if (
+      data.options instanceof Array &&
+      data.options[0] &&
+      ((data.options[0].probability || 0) < 0.1 ||
+        (data.options[0].probability || 0) > 0.9)
+    ) {
+      starsDecimal = starsDecimal - 1;
+    }
+
+    let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
+    return starsInteger;
+  },
 };

src/backend/platforms/predictit.ts

@@ -1,24 +1,25 @@
 import axios from "axios";
 
-import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
+import { average } from "../../utils";
+import { sleep } from "../utils/sleep";
 import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
 import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
 
 const platformName = "predictit";
 
 /* Support functions */
-async function fetchmarkets() {
+async function fetchmarkets(): Promise<any[]> {
-  let response = await axios({
+  const response = await axios({
     method: "get",
     url: "https://www.predictit.org/api/marketdata/all/",
   });
-  let openMarkets = response.data.markets.filter(
+  const openMarkets = response.data.markets.filter(
-    (market) => market.status == "Open"
+    (market: any) => market.status == "Open"
   );
   return openMarkets;
 }
 
-async function fetchmarketrules(market_id) {
+async function fetchmarketrules(market_id: string | number) {
   let response = await axios({
     method: "get",
     url: "https://www.predictit.org/api/Market/" + market_id,
@@ -34,15 +35,12 @@ async function fetchmarketvolumes() {
   return response.data;
 }
 
-function sleep(ms: number) {
-  return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
-}
-
 /* Body */
 export const predictit: Platform = {
   name: platformName,
   label: "PredictIt",
   color: "#460c00",
+  version: "v1",
   async fetcher() {
     let markets = await fetchmarkets();
     let marketVolumes = await fetchmarketvolumes();
@@ -65,13 +63,15 @@ export const predictit: Platform = {
       let shares_volume = market["TotalSharesTraded"];
       // let percentageFormatted = isbinary ? Number(Number(market.contracts[0].lastTradePrice) * 100).toFixed(0) + "%" : "none"
 
-      let options = market.contracts.map((contract) => ({
+      let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = (market.contracts as any[]).map(
-        name: contract.name,
+        (contract) => ({
-        probability: contract.lastTradePrice,
+          name: String(contract.name),
-        type: "PROBABILITY",
+          probability: Number(contract.lastTradePrice),
-      }));
+          type: "PROBABILITY",
+        })
+      );
       let totalValue = options
-        .map((element) => Number(element.probability))
+        .map((element: any) => Number(element.probability))
         .reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
 
       if (options.length != 1 && totalValue > 1) {
@@ -81,7 +81,7 @@ export const predictit: Platform = {
         }));
       } else if (options.length == 1) {
         let option = options[0];
-        let probability = option["probability"];
+        let probability = option.probability;
         options = [
           {
             name: "Yes",
@@ -90,7 +90,7 @@ export const predictit: Platform = {
           },
           {
             name: "No",
-            probability: 1 - probability,
+            probability: 1 - (probability || 0),
             type: "PROBABILITY",
           },
         ];
@@ -100,11 +100,9 @@ export const predictit: Platform = {
         id,
         title: market["name"],
         url: market.url,
-        platform: platformName,
         description,
         options,
         qualityindicators: {
-          stars: calculateStars(platformName, {}),
           shares_volume,
         },
       };
@@ -114,4 +112,12 @@ export const predictit: Platform = {
 
     return results;
   },
+  calculateStars(data) {
+    let nuno = () => 3;
+    let eli = () => 3.5;
+    let misha = () => 2.5;
+    let starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]);
+    let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
+    return starsInteger;
+  },
 };

src/backend/platforms/rootclaim.ts

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 import axios from "axios";
 import { JSDOM } from "jsdom";
 
-import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
+import { average } from "../../utils";
 import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
 import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
 
@@ -48,6 +48,7 @@ export const rootclaim: Platform = {
   name: platformName,
   label: "Rootclaim",
   color: "#0d1624",
+  version: "v1",
   async fetcher() {
     const claims = await fetchAllRootclaims();
     const results: FetchedQuestion[] = [];
@@ -55,7 +56,7 @@ export const rootclaim: Platform = {
     for (const claim of claims) {
       const id = `${platformName}-${claim.slug.toLowerCase()}`;
 
-      let options = [];
+      let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [];
       for (let scenario of claim.scenarios) {
         options.push({
           name: toMarkdown(scenario.name || scenario.text)
@@ -75,16 +76,22 @@ export const rootclaim: Platform = {
         id,
         title: toMarkdown(claim.question).replace("\n", ""),
         url,
-        platform: platformName,
         description: toMarkdown(description).replace("'", "'"),
-        options: options,
+        options,
         qualityindicators: {
           numforecasts: 1,
-          stars: calculateStars(platformName, {}),
         },
       };
       results.push(obj);
     }
     return results;
   },
+  calculateStars(data) {
+    let nuno = () => 4;
+    let eli = () => null;
+    let misha = () => null;
+    let starsDecimal = average([nuno() /*, eli(data), misha(data)*/]);
+    let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
+    return starsInteger;
+  },
 };

src/backend/platforms/smarkets.ts

@@ -1,180 +1,212 @@
 import axios from "axios";
 
-import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
+import { QuestionOption } from "../../common/types";
+import { average } from "../../utils";
 import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
 
 /* Definitions */
 const platformName = "smarkets";
-let htmlEndPointEntrance = "https://api.smarkets.com/v3/events/";
+const apiEndpoint = "https://api.smarkets.com/v3"; // documented at https://docs.smarkets.com/
-let VERBOSE = false;
+
-let empty = () => 0;
+type Context = {
+  verbose: boolean;
+};
 
 /* Support functions */
 
-async function fetchEvents(url) {
+async function fetchEvents(ctx: Context) {
-  let response = await axios({
+  let queryString =
-    url: htmlEndPointEntrance + url,
+    "?state=new&state=upcoming&state=live&type_domain=politics&type_scope=single_event&with_new_type=true&sort=id&limit=50";
-    method: "GET",
+
-    headers: {
+  let events = [];
-      "Content-Type": "text/html",
+  while (queryString) {
-    },
+    const data = await axios({
-  }).then((res) => res.data);
+      url: `${apiEndpoint}/events/${queryString}`,
-  VERBOSE ? console.log(response) : empty();
+      method: "GET",
-  return response;
+    }).then((res) => res.data);
+
+    events.push(...data.events);
+    queryString = data.pagination.next_page;
+  }
+  ctx.verbose && console.log(events);
+
+  return events;
 }
 
-async function fetchMarkets(eventid) {
+async function fetchSingleEvent(id: string, ctx: Context) {
-  let response = await axios({
+  const events = await fetchEvents(ctx);
-    url: `https://api.smarkets.com/v3/events/${eventid}/markets/`,
+  const event = events.find((event) => event.id === id);
+  if (!event) {
+    throw new Error(`Event ${id} not found`);
+  }
+  return event;
+}
+
+async function fetchMarkets(eventId: string) {
+  const response = await axios({
+    url: `${apiEndpoint}/events/${eventId}/markets/`,
     method: "GET",
-    headers: {
-      "Content-Type": "text/json",
-    },
   })
     .then((res) => res.data)
     .then((res) => res.markets);
   return response;
 }
 
-async function fetchContracts(marketid) {
+async function fetchContracts(marketId: string, ctx: Context) {
-  let response = await axios({
+  const response = await axios({
-    url: `https://api.smarkets.com/v3/markets/${marketid}/contracts/`,
+    url: `${apiEndpoint}/markets/${marketId}/contracts/?include_hidden=true`,
     method: "GET",
-    headers: {
-      "Content-Type": "text/html",
-    },
   }).then((res) => res.data);
-  VERBOSE ? console.log(response) : empty();
+  ctx.verbose && console.log(response);
-  return response;
+
+  if (!(response.contracts instanceof Array)) {
+    throw new Error("Invalid response while fetching contracts");
+  }
+  return response.contracts as any[];
 }
 
-async function fetchPrices(marketid) {
+async function fetchPrices(marketId: string, ctx: Context) {
-  let response = await axios({
+  const response = await axios({
-    url: `https://api.smarkets.com/v3/markets/${marketid}/last_executed_prices/`,
+    url: `https://api.smarkets.com/v3/markets/${marketId}/last_executed_prices/`,
     method: "GET",
-    headers: {
-      "Content-Type": "text/html",
-    },
   }).then((res) => res.data);
-  VERBOSE ? console.log(response) : empty();
+  ctx.verbose && console.log(response);
-  return response;
+  if (!response.last_executed_prices) {
+    throw new Error("Invalid response while fetching prices");
+  }
+  return response.last_executed_prices;
 }
 
-export const smarkets: Platform = {
+async function processEventMarkets(event: any, ctx: Context) {
-  name: platformName,
+  ctx.verbose && console.log(Date.now());
-  label: "Smarkets",
+  ctx.verbose && console.log(event.name);
-  color: "#6f5b41",
-  async fetcher() {
-    let htmlPath =
-      "?state=new&state=upcoming&state=live&type_domain=politics&type_scope=single_event&with_new_type=true&sort=id&limit=50";
 
-    let events = [];
+  let markets = await fetchMarkets(event.id);
-    while (htmlPath) {
+  markets = markets.map((market: any) => ({
-      let data = await fetchEvents(htmlPath);
+    ...market,
-      events.push(...data.events);
+    // smarkets doesn't have separate urls for different markets in a single event
-      htmlPath = data.pagination.next_page;
+    // we could use anchors (e.g. https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader#contract-collapse-9815728-control), but it's unclear if they aren't going to change
-    }
+    slug: event.full_slug,
-    VERBOSE ? console.log(events) : empty();
+  }));
-    let markets = [];
+  ctx.verbose && console.log(`Markets for ${event.id} fetched`);
-    for (let event of events) {
+  ctx.verbose && console.log(markets);
-      VERBOSE ? console.log(Date.now()) : empty();
-      VERBOSE ? console.log(event.name) : empty();
-      let eventMarkets = await fetchMarkets(event.id);
-      eventMarkets = eventMarkets.map((market) => ({
-        ...market,
-        slug: event.full_slug,
-      }));
-      VERBOSE ? console.log("Markets fetched") : empty();
-      VERBOSE ? console.log(event.id) : empty();
-      VERBOSE ? console.log(eventMarkets) : empty();
-      markets.push(...eventMarkets);
-      //let lastPrices = await fetchPrices(market.id)
-    }
-    VERBOSE ? console.log(markets) : empty();
 
-    let results = [];
+  let results: FetchedQuestion[] = [];
-    for (let market of markets) {
+  for (const market of markets) {
-      VERBOSE ? console.log("================") : empty();
+    ctx.verbose && console.log("================");
-      VERBOSE ? console.log("Market: ", market) : empty();
+    ctx.verbose && console.log("Market:", market);
-      let id = `${platformName}-${market.id}`;
-      let name = market.name;
 
-      let contracts = await fetchContracts(market.id);
+    const contracts = await fetchContracts(market.id, ctx);
-      VERBOSE ? console.log("Contracts: ", contracts) : empty();
+    ctx.verbose && console.log("Contracts:", contracts);
-      let prices = await fetchPrices(market.id);
+    const prices = await fetchPrices(market.id, ctx);
-      VERBOSE
+    ctx.verbose && console.log("Prices:", prices[market.id]);
-        ? console.log("Prices: ", prices["last_executed_prices"][market.id])
-        : empty();
 
-      let optionsObj = {};
+    let optionsObj: {
-      for (let contract of contracts["contracts"]) {
+      [k: string]: QuestionOption;
-        optionsObj[contract.id] = { name: contract.name };
+    } = {};
+
+    const contractsById = Object.fromEntries(
+      contracts.map((c) => [c.id as string, c])
+    );
+
+    for (const price of prices[market.id]) {
+      const contract = contractsById[price.contract_id];
+      if (!contract) {
+        console.warn(
+          `Couldn't find contract ${price.contract_id} in contracts data for ${market.id}, event ${market.event_id}, skipping`
+        );
+        continue;
       }
-      for (let price of prices["last_executed_prices"][market.id]) {
+      optionsObj[price.contract_id] = {
-        optionsObj[price.contract_id] = {
+        name: contract.name,
-          ...optionsObj[price.contract_id],
+        probability: contract.hidden ? 0 : Number(price.last_executed_price),
-          probability: price.last_executed_price
+        type: "PROBABILITY",
-            ? Number(price.last_executed_price)
+      };
-            : null,
+    }
-          type: "PROBABILITY",
+    let options: QuestionOption[] = Object.values(optionsObj);
-        };
+    ctx.verbose && console.log("Options before patching:", options);
-      }
+
-      let options: any[] = Object.values(optionsObj);
+    // monkey patch the case where there are only two options and only one has traded.
-      // monkey patch the case where there are only two options and only one has traded.
+    if (
-      if (
+      options.length === 2 &&
-        options.length == 2 &&
+      options.map((option) => option.probability).includes(0)
-        options.map((option) => option.probability).includes(null)
+    ) {
-      ) {
+      const nonNullPrice = options[0].probability || options[1].probability;
-        let nonNullPrice =
+
-          options[0].probability == null
+      if (nonNullPrice) {
-            ? options[1].probability
-            : options[0].probability;
         options = options.map((option) => {
-          let probability = option.probability;
           return {
             ...option,
-            probability: probability == null ? 100 - nonNullPrice : probability,
+            probability: option.probability || 100 - nonNullPrice,
             // yes, 100, because prices are not yet normalized.
           };
         });
       }
-
-      // Normalize normally
-      let totalValue = options
-        .map((element) => Number(element.probability))
-        .reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
-
-      options = options.map((element) => ({
-        ...element,
-        probability: Number(element.probability) / totalValue,
-      }));
-      VERBOSE ? console.log(options) : empty();
-
-      /*
-    if(contracts["contracts"].length == 2){
-      isBinary = true
-      percentage = ( Number(prices["last_executed_prices"][market.id][0].last_executed_price) + (100 - Number(prices["last_executed_prices"][market.id][1].last_executed_price)) ) / 2
-      percentage = Math.round(percentage)+"%"
-      let contractName = contracts["contracts"][0].name
-      name = name+ (contractName=="Yes"?'':` (${contracts["contracts"][0].name})`)
     }
-    */
+    ctx.verbose && console.log("Options after patching:", options);
-      let result: FetchedQuestion = {
+
-        id: id,
+    // Normalize normally
-        title: name,
+    const totalValue = options
-        url: "https://smarkets.com/event/" + market.event_id + market.slug,
+      .map((element) => Number(element.probability))
-        platform: platformName,
+      .reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
-        description: market.description,
+
-        options: options,
+    options = options.map((element) => ({
-        timestamp: new Date(),
+      ...element,
-        qualityindicators: {
+      probability: Number(element.probability) / totalValue,
-          stars: calculateStars(platformName, {}),
+    }));
-        },
+    ctx.verbose && console.log("Normalized options:", options);
-      };
+
-      VERBOSE ? console.log(result) : empty();
+    const result: FetchedQuestion = {
-      results.push(result);
+      id: `${platformName}-${market.id}`,
+      title: market.name,
+      url: "https://smarkets.com/event/" + market.event_id + market.slug,
+      description: market.description,
+      options,
+      timestamp: new Date(),
+      qualityindicators: {},
+    };
+    ctx.verbose && console.log(result);
+    results.push(result);
+  }
+  return results;
+}
+
+export const smarkets: Platform<"eventId" | "verbose"> = {
+  name: platformName,
+  label: "Smarkets",
+  color: "#6f5b41",
+  version: "v2",
+  fetcherArgs: ["eventId", "verbose"],
+  async fetcher(opts) {
+    const ctx = {
+      verbose: Boolean(opts.args?.verbose) || false,
+    };
+
+    let events: any[] = [];
+    let partial = true;
+    if (opts.args?.eventId) {
+      events = [await fetchSingleEvent(opts.args.eventId, ctx)];
+    } else {
+      events = await fetchEvents(ctx);
+      partial = false;
     }
-    VERBOSE ? console.log(results) : empty();
+
-    return results;
+    let results: FetchedQuestion[] = [];
+    for (const event of events) {
+      const eventResults = await processEventMarkets(event, ctx);
+      results.push(...eventResults);
+    }
+    return {
+      questions: results,
+      partial,
+    };
+  },
+  calculateStars(data) {
+    const nuno = () => 2;
+    const eli = () => null;
+    const misha = () => null;
+    const starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(), misha()])
+    const starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
+    return starsInteger;
   },
 };

src/backend/platforms/wildeford.ts

@@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
 /* Imports */
 import { GoogleSpreadsheet } from "google-spreadsheet";
 
+import { average } from "../../utils";
 import { applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets";
 import { hash } from "../utils/hash";
-import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
 import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
 
 /* Definitions */
@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ const endpoint = `https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/${SHEET_ID}/edit#gid=0`
 // https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0
 /* Support functions */
 
-const formatRow = (row) => {
+const formatRow = (row: string[]) => {
   let colNames = [
     "Prediction Date",
     "Prediction",
@@ -23,15 +23,15 @@ const formatRow = (row) => {
     "Prediction Right?",
     "Brier Score",
     "Notes",
-  ];
+  ] as const;
-  let result = {};
+  let result: Partial<{ [k in typeof colNames[number]]: string }> = {};
-  row.forEach((col, i) => {
+  row.forEach((col: string, i) => {
     result[colNames[i]] = col;
   });
-  return result;
+  return result as Required<typeof result>;
 };
 
-async function fetchGoogleDoc(google_api_key) {
+async function fetchGoogleDoc(google_api_key: string) {
   // https://gist.github.com/micalevisk/9bc831bd4b3e5a3f62b9810330129c59
   let results = [];
   const doc = new GoogleSpreadsheet(SHEET_ID);
@@ -41,7 +41,7 @@ async function fetchGoogleDoc(google_api_key) {
   console.log(">>", doc.title);
 
   const sheet = doc.sheetsByIndex[0];
-  const rows = await sheet.getRows({ offset: 0 });
+  const rows = await sheet.getRows();
 
   console.log("# " + rows[0]._sheet.headerValues.join(","));
   let isEnd = false;
@@ -68,7 +68,9 @@ async function fetchGoogleDoc(google_api_key) {
   return results;
 }
 
-async function processPredictions(predictions) {
+async function processPredictions(
+  predictions: Awaited<ReturnType<typeof fetchGoogleDoc>>
+) {
   let currentPredictions = predictions.filter(
     (prediction) => prediction["Actual"] == "Unknown"
   );
@@ -76,7 +78,7 @@ async function processPredictions(predictions) {
     let title = prediction["Prediction"].replace(" [update]", "");
     let id = `${platformName}-${hash(title)}`;
     let probability = Number(prediction["Odds"].replace("%", "")) / 100;
-    let options = [
+    let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [
       {
         name: "Yes",
         probability: probability,
@@ -92,20 +94,17 @@ async function processPredictions(predictions) {
       id,
       title,
       url: prediction["url"],
-      platform: platformName,
       description: prediction["Notes"] || "",
       options,
       timestamp: new Date(Date.parse(prediction["Prediction Date"] + "Z")),
-      qualityindicators: {
+      qualityindicators: {},
-        stars: calculateStars(platformName, null),
-      },
     };
     return result;
   });
 
   results = results.reverse();
-  let uniqueTitles = [];
+  let uniqueTitles: string[] = [];
-  let uniqueResults = [];
+  let uniqueResults: FetchedQuestion[] = [];
   results.forEach((result) => {
     if (!uniqueTitles.includes(result.title)) uniqueResults.push(result);
     uniqueTitles.push(result.title);
@@ -113,7 +112,7 @@ async function processPredictions(predictions) {
   return uniqueResults;
 }
 
-export async function wildeford_inner(google_api_key) {
+export async function wildeford_inner(google_api_key: string) {
   let predictions = await fetchGoogleDoc(google_api_key);
   return await processPredictions(predictions);
 }
@@ -122,8 +121,17 @@ export const wildeford: Platform = {
   name: platformName,
   label: "Peter Wildeford",
   color: "#984158",
+  version: "v1",
   async fetcher() {
     const GOOGLE_API_KEY = process.env.GOOGLE_API_KEY; // See: https://developers.google.com/sheets/api/guides/authorizing#APIKey
-    return await applyIfSecretExists(GOOGLE_API_KEY, wildeford_inner);
+    return (await applyIfSecretExists(GOOGLE_API_KEY, wildeford_inner)) || null;
+  },
+  calculateStars(data) {
+    let nuno = () => 3;
+    let eli = () => null;
+    let misha = () => null;
+    let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(), misha()])
+    let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
+    return starsInteger;
   },
 };

src/backend/platforms/xrisk.ts

@@ -9,21 +9,22 @@ export const xrisk: Platform = {
   name: "xrisk",
   label: "X-risk estimates",
   color: "#272600",
+  version: "v1",
   async fetcher() {
     // return; // not necessary to refill the DB every time
     let fileRaw = fs.readFileSync("./input/xrisk-questions.json", {
       encoding: "utf-8",
     });
-    let results = JSON.parse(fileRaw);
+    let parsedData = JSON.parse(fileRaw);
-    results = results.map((item) => {
+    const results = parsedData.map((item: any) => {
       item.extra = item.moreoriginsdata;
       delete item.moreoriginsdata;
       return {
         ...item,
         id: `${platformName}-${hash(item.title + " | " + item.url)}`, // some titles are non-unique, but title+url pair is always unique
-        platform: platformName,
       };
     });
     return results;
   },
+  calculateStars: () => 2,
 };

src/backend/utils/algolia.ts

@@ -5,13 +5,14 @@ import { Question } from "@prisma/client";
 import { prisma } from "../database/prisma";
 import { platforms } from "../platforms";
 
-let cookie = process.env.ALGOLIA_MASTER_API_KEY;
+let cookie = process.env.ALGOLIA_MASTER_API_KEY || "";
-const algoliaAppId = process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_ALGOLIA_APP_ID;
+const algoliaAppId = process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_ALGOLIA_APP_ID || "";
 const client = algoliasearch(algoliaAppId, cookie);
 const index = client.initIndex("metaforecast");
 
 export type AlgoliaQuestion = Omit<Question, "timestamp"> & {
   timestamp: string;
+  optionsstringforsearch?: string;
 };
 
 const getoptionsstringforsearch = (record: Question): string => {
@@ -43,7 +44,7 @@ export async function rebuildAlgoliaDatabase() {
     })
   );
 
-  if (index.exists()) {
+  if (await index.exists()) {
     console.log("Index exists");
     await index.replaceAllObjects(records, { safe: true });
     console.log(

src/backend/utils/evaluations/pullForecastsToCSVForRating.ts

@@ -1,51 +0,0 @@
-/* Imports */
-import fs from "fs";
-
-import { prisma } from "../../database/prisma";
-
-/* Definitions */
-
-/* Utilities */
-
-/* Support functions */
-const getQualityIndicators = (question) =>
-  Object.entries(question.qualityindicators)
-    .map((entry) => `${entry[0]}: ${entry[1]}`)
-    .join("; ");
-
-/* Body */
-
-const main = async () => {
-  let highQualityPlatforms = [
-    "CSET-foretell",
-    "Foretold",
-    "Good Judgment Open",
-    "Metaculus",
-    "PredictIt",
-    "Rootclaim",
-  ];
-  const json = await prisma.question.findMany({});
-  console.log(json.length);
-  //let uniquePlatforms = [...new Set(json.map(forecast => forecast.platform))]
-  //console.log(uniquePlatforms)
-
-  const questionsFromGoodPlatforms = json.filter((question) =>
-    highQualityPlatforms.includes(question.platform)
-  );
-  const tsv =
-    "index\ttitle\turl\tqualityindicators\n" +
-    questionsFromGoodPlatforms
-      .map((question, index) => {
-        let row = `${index}\t${question.title}\t${
-          question.url
-        }\t${getQualityIndicators(question)}`;
-        console.log(row);
-        return row;
-      })
-      .join("\n");
-  //console.log(tsv)
-
-  // let string = JSON.stringify(json, null, 2)
-  fs.writeFileSync("metaforecasts.tsv", tsv);
-};
-main();

src/backend/utils/evaluations/pullMetaculusForecastsToCSVForRating.ts

@@ -1,48 +0,0 @@
-/* Imports */
-import fs from "fs";
-
-import { shuffleArray } from "../../../utils";
-import { prisma } from "../../database/prisma";
-
-/* Definitions */
-
-/* Utilities */
-
-/* Support functions */
-let getQualityIndicators = (question) =>
-  Object.entries(question.qualityindicators)
-    .map((entry) => `${entry[0]}: ${entry[1]}`)
-    .join("; ");
-
-/* Body */
-
-let main = async () => {
-  let highQualityPlatforms = ["Metaculus"]; // ['CSET-foretell', 'Foretold', 'Good Judgment Open', 'Metaculus', 'PredictIt', 'Rootclaim']
-  let json = await prisma.question.findMany({});
-  console.log(json.length);
-  //let uniquePlatforms = [...new Set(json.map(question => question.platform))]
-  //console.log(uniquePlatforms)
-
-  let questionsFromGoodPlatforms = json.filter((question) =>
-    highQualityPlatforms.includes(question.platform)
-  );
-  let questionsFromGoodPlatformsShuffled = shuffleArray(
-    questionsFromGoodPlatforms
-  );
-  let tsv =
-    "index\ttitle\turl\tqualityindicators\n" +
-    questionsFromGoodPlatforms
-      .map((question, index) => {
-        let row = `${index}\t${question.title}\t${
-          question.url
-        }\t${getQualityIndicators(question)}`;
-        console.log(row);
-        return row;
-      })
-      .join("\n");
-  //console.log(tsv)
-
-  // let string = JSON.stringify(json, null, 2)
-  fs.writeFileSync("metaforecasts_metaculus_v2.tsv", tsv);
-};
-main();

src/backend/utils/getSecrets.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 export async function applyIfSecretExists<T>(
-  cookie: string,
+  cookie: string | undefined,
   fun: (cookie: string) => T
 ) {
   if (cookie) {

src/backend/utils/misc/process-forecasts-into-elicit.ts

@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ let locationData = "./data/";
 // let rawdata =  fs.readFileSync("./data/merged-questions.json") // run from topmost folder, not from src
 async function main() {
   const data = await prisma.question.findMany({});
-  const processDescription = (description) => {
+  const processDescription = (description: string | null | undefined) => {
     if (description == null || description == undefined || description == "") {
       return "";
     } else {

src/backend/utils/misc/process-forecasts-template.ts

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ let rawdata = fs.readFileSync("../data/merged-questions.json", {
 });
 let data = JSON.parse(rawdata);
 
-let results = [];
+let results: any[] = [];
 for (let datum of data) {
   // do something
 }

src/backend/utils/roughSize.ts

@@ -1,25 +0,0 @@
-export function roughSizeOfObject(object) {
-  var objectList = [];
-  var stack = [object];
-  var bytes = 0;
-
-  while (stack.length) {
-    var value = stack.pop();
-    if (typeof value === "boolean") {
-      bytes += 4;
-    } else if (typeof value === "string") {
-      bytes += value.length * 2;
-    } else if (typeof value === "number") {
-      bytes += 8;
-    } else if (typeof value === "object" && objectList.indexOf(value) === -1) {
-      objectList.push(value);
-
-      for (var i in value) {
-        stack.push(value[i]);
-      }
-    }
-  }
-  let megaBytes = bytes / 1024 ** 2;
-  let megaBytesRounded = Math.round(megaBytes * 10) / 10;
-  return megaBytesRounded;
-}

src/backend/utils/sleep.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+export function sleep(ms: number) {
+  return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
+}

src/backend/utils/stars.ts

@@ -1,356 +0,0 @@
-export function getStarSymbols(numstars) {
-  let stars = "★★☆☆☆";
-  switch (numstars) {
-    case 0:
-      stars = "☆☆☆☆☆";
-      break;
-    case 1:
-      stars = "★☆☆☆☆";
-      break;
-    case 2:
-      stars = "★★☆☆☆";
-      break;
-    case 3:
-      stars = "★★★☆☆";
-      break;
-    case 4:
-      stars = "★★★★☆";
-      break;
-    case 5:
-      stars = "★★★★★";
-      break;
-    default:
-      stars = "★★☆☆☆";
-  }
-  return stars;
-}
-
-let average = (array) => array.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / array.length;
-
-function calculateStarsAstralCodexTen(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => 3;
-  let eli = (data) => null;
-  let misha = (data) => null;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsBetfair(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => (data.volume > 10000 ? 4 : data.volume > 1000 ? 3 : 2);
-  let eli = (data) => (data.volume > 10000 ? null : null);
-  let misha = (data) => null;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  // Substract 1 star if probability is above 90% or below 10%
-  if (
-    data.option &&
-    (data.option.probability < 0.1 || data.option.probability > 0.9)
-  ) {
-    starsDecimal = starsDecimal - 1;
-  }
-
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsCoupCast(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => 3;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsCSETForetell(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => (data.numforecasts > 100 ? 3 : 2);
-  let eli = (data) => 3;
-  let misha = (data) => 2;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data), eli(data), misha(data)]);
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsElicit(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => 1;
-  let eli = (data) => null;
-  let misha = (data) => null;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsEstimize(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => 2;
-  let eli = (data) => null;
-  let misha = (data) => null;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsForetold(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => 2;
-  let eli = (data) => null;
-  let misha = (data) => null;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsGiveWellOpenPhil(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => 2;
-  let eli = (data) => null;
-  let misha = (data) => null;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsGoodJudgment(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => 4;
-  let eli = (data) => 4;
-  let misha = (data) => 3.5;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsGoodJudgmentOpen(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => (data.numforecasts > 100 ? 3 : 2);
-  let eli = (data) => 3;
-  let misha = (data) =>
-    data.minProbability > 0.1 || data.maxProbability < 0.9 ? 3.1 : 2.5;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data), eli(data), misha(data)]);
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsHypermind(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => 3;
-  let eli = (data) => null;
-  let misha = (data) => null;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsInfer(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => 2;
-  let eli = (data) => null;
-  let misha = (data) => null;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsKalshi(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) =>
-    data.interest > 500 && data.shares_volume > 10000
-      ? 4
-      : data.shares_volume > 2000
-      ? 3
-      : 2;
-  // let eli = (data) => data.interest > 10000 ? 5 : 4
-  // let misha = (data) => 4
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  // Substract 1 star if probability is above 90% or below 10%
-  if (
-    data.option &&
-    (data.option.probability < 0.1 || data.option.probability > 0.9)
-  ) {
-    starsDecimal = starsDecimal - 1;
-  }
-
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsLadbrokes(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => 2;
-  let eli = (data) => null;
-  let misha = (data) => null;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsManifold(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) =>
-    data.volume7Days > 250 || (data.pool > 500 && data.volume7Days > 100)
-      ? 2
-      : 1;
-  let eli = (data) => null;
-  let misha = (data) => null;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  // console.log(data);
-  // console.log(starsInteger);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsMetaculus(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) =>
-    data.numforecasts > 300 ? 4 : data.numforecasts > 100 ? 3 : 2;
-  let eli = (data) => 3;
-  let misha = (data) => 3;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data), eli(data), misha(data)]);
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsOmen(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => 1;
-  let eli = (data) => null;
-  let misha = (data) => null;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsPolymarket(data) {
-  // let nuno = (data) => (data.volume > 10000 ? 4 : data.volume > 1000 ? 3 : 2);
-  // let eli = (data) => data.liquidity > 10000 ? 5 : 4
-  // let misha = (data) => 4
-
-  let nuno = (data) =>
-    data.liquidity > 1000 && data.volume > 10000
-      ? 4
-      : data.liquidity > 500 && data.volume > 1000
-      ? 3
-      : 2;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  // Substract 1 star if probability is above 90% or below 10%
-  if (
-    data.option &&
-    (data.option.probability < 0.1 || data.option.probability > 0.9)
-  ) {
-    starsDecimal = starsDecimal - 1;
-  }
-
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsPredictIt(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => 3;
-  let eli = (data) => 3.5;
-  let misha = (data) => 2.5;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data), eli(data), misha(data)]);
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsRootclaim(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => 4;
-  let eli = (data) => null;
-  let misha = (data) => null;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data) /*, eli(data), misha(data)*/]);
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsSmarkets(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => 2;
-  let eli = (data) => null;
-  let misha = (data) => null;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsWildeford(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => 3;
-  let eli = (data) => null;
-  let misha = (data) => null;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-function calculateStarsWilliamHill(data) {
-  let nuno = (data) => 2;
-  let eli = (data) => null;
-  let misha = (data) => null;
-  let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
-  let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
-  return starsInteger;
-}
-
-export function calculateStars(platform: string, data) {
-  let stars = 2;
-  switch (platform) {
-    case "betfair":
-      stars = calculateStarsBetfair(data);
-      break;
-    case "infer":
-      stars = calculateStarsInfer(data);
-      break;
-    case "foretold":
-      stars = calculateStarsForetold(data);
-      break;
-    case "givewellopenphil":
-      stars = calculateStarsGiveWellOpenPhil(data);
-      break;
-    case "goodjudgment":
-      stars = calculateStarsGoodJudgment(data);
-      break;
-    case "goodjudgmentopen":
-      stars = calculateStarsGoodJudgmentOpen(data);
-      break;
-    case "kalshi":
-      stars = calculateStarsKalshi(data);
-      break;
-    case "manifold":
-      stars = calculateStarsManifold(data);
-      break;
-    case "metaculus":
-      stars = calculateStarsMetaculus(data);
-      break;
-    case "polymarket":
-      stars = calculateStarsPolymarket(data);
-      break;
-    case "predictit":
-      stars = calculateStarsPredictIt(data);
-      break;
-    case "rootclaim":
-      stars = calculateStarsRootclaim(data);
-      break;
-    case "smarkets":
-      stars = calculateStarsSmarkets(data);
-      break;
-    case "wildeford":
-      stars = calculateStarsWildeford(data);
-      break;
-
-    // deprecated
-    case "AstralCodexTen":
-      stars = calculateStarsAstralCodexTen(data);
-      break;
-    case "CoupCast":
-      stars = calculateStarsCoupCast(data);
-      break;
-    case "CSET-foretell":
-      stars = calculateStarsCSETForetell(data);
-      break;
-    case "Elicit":
-      stars = calculateStarsElicit(data);
-      break;
-    case "Estimize":
-      stars = calculateStarsEstimize(data);
-      break;
-    case "Hypermind":
-      stars = calculateStarsHypermind(data);
-      break;
-    case "Ladbrokes":
-      stars = calculateStarsLadbrokes(data);
-      break;
-    case "Omen":
-      stars = calculateStarsOmen(data);
-      break;
-    case "WilliamHill":
-      stars = calculateStarsWilliamHill(data);
-      break;
-    default:
-      stars = 2;
-  }
-  return stars;
-}

src/backend/utils/toMarkdown.ts

@@ -1,26 +1,16 @@
-/* Imports */
 import textVersion from "textversionjs";
 
-/* Definitions */
+export default function toMarkdown(htmlText: string) {
-String.prototype.replaceAll = function replaceAll(search, replace) {
-  return this.split(search).join(replace);
-};
-
-var styleConfig = {
-  linkProcess: function (href, linkText) {
-    let newHref = href ? href.replace(/\(/g, "%28").replace(/\)/g, "%29") : "";
-    // Deal corretly in markdown with links that contain parenthesis
-    return `[${linkText}](${newHref})`;
-  },
-};
-
-/* Support functions */
-
-/* Body */
-
-export default function toMarkdown(htmlText) {
   let html2 = htmlText.replaceAll(`='`, `="`).replaceAll(`'>`, `">`);
-  return textVersion(html2, styleConfig);
+  return textVersion(html2, {
+    linkProcess: (href, linkText) => {
+      let newHref = href
+        ? href.replace(/\(/g, "%28").replace(/\)/g, "%29")
+        : "";
+      // Deal correctly in markdown with links that contain parenthesis
+      return `[${linkText}](${newHref})`;
+    },
+  });
 }
 
 // toMarkdown()

src/common/types.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+import { QuestionFragment } from "../web/fragments.generated";
+
+// this type is good both for backend (e.g. FetchedQuestion["options"]) and for graphql shapes
+export type QuestionOption = {
+  name?: string;
+  probability?: number;
+  type: "PROBABILITY";
+};
+
+export type FullQuestionOption = Exclude<
+  QuestionOption,
+  "name" | "probability"
+> & {
+  name: NonNullable<QuestionOption["name"]>;
+  probability: NonNullable<QuestionOption["probability"]>;
+};
+
+export const isFullQuestionOption = (
+  option: QuestionOption | QuestionFragment["options"][0]
+): option is FullQuestionOption => {
+  return option.name != null && option.probability != null;
+};

src/graphql/schema/dashboards.ts

@@ -36,6 +36,7 @@ const DashboardObj = builder.objectRef<Dashboard>("Dashboard").implement({
 builder.queryField("dashboard", (t) =>
   t.field({
     type: DashboardObj,
+    nullable: true,
     description: "Look up a single dashboard by its id",
     args: {
       id: t.arg({ type: "ID", required: true }),

src/graphql/schema/questions.ts

@@ -140,6 +140,7 @@ builder.queryField("questions", (t) =>
 builder.queryField("question", (t) =>
   t.field({
     type: QuestionObj,
+    nullable: true,
     description: "Look up a single question by its id",
     args: {
       id: t.arg({ type: "ID", required: true }),
@@ -149,7 +150,6 @@ builder.queryField("question", (t) =>
       const [platform, id] = [parts[0], parts.slice(1).join("-")];
       if (platform === "guesstimate") {
         const q = await guesstimate.fetchQuestion(Number(id));
-        console.log(q);
         return q;
       }
       return await prisma.question.findUnique({

src/graphql/schema/search.ts

@@ -32,19 +32,19 @@ builder.queryField("searchQuestions", (t) =>
       // defs
       const query = input.query === undefined ? "" : input.query;
       if (query === "") return [];
-      const forecastsThreshold = input.forecastsThreshold;
+      const { forecastsThreshold, starsThreshold } = input;
-      const starsThreshold = input.starsThreshold;
+
       const platformsIncludeGuesstimate =
         input.forecastingPlatforms?.includes("guesstimate") &&
-        starsThreshold <= 1;
+        (!starsThreshold || starsThreshold <= 1);
 
       // preparation
       const unawaitedAlgoliaResponse = searchWithAlgolia({
         queryString: query,
-        hitsPerPage: input.limit + 50,
+        hitsPerPage: input.limit ?? 50,
-        starsThreshold,
+        starsThreshold: starsThreshold ?? undefined,
-        filterByPlatforms: input.forecastingPlatforms,
+        filterByPlatforms: input.forecastingPlatforms ?? undefined,
-        forecastsThreshold,
+        forecastsThreshold: forecastsThreshold ?? undefined,
       });
 
       let results: AlgoliaQuestion[] = [];

src/pages/api/squiggle.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 import { NextApiRequest, NextApiResponse } from "next/types";
-import { runMePlease } from "squiggle-experimental/dist/index.js";
+
+import { run } from "@quri/squiggle-lang";
 
 export default async function handler(
   req: NextApiRequest,
@@ -24,6 +25,6 @@ $ curl -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json"     -d '{"model": "1 to 4"}'
     });
   } else {
     console.log(body.model);
-    res.status(200).send(runMePlease(body.model));
+    res.status(200).send(run(body.model));
   }
 }

src/pages/dashboards/embed/[id].tsx

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 import { GetServerSideProps, NextPage } from "next";
-import Error from "next/error";
+import NextError from "next/error";
 
 import {
     DashboardByIdDocument, DashboardFragment
@@ -19,9 +19,13 @@ export const getServerSideProps: GetServerSideProps<Props> = async (
   const dashboardId = context.query.id as string;
   const numCols = Number(context.query.numCols);
 
-  const dashboard = (
+  const response = await client
-    await client.query(DashboardByIdDocument, { id: dashboardId }).toPromise()
+    .query(DashboardByIdDocument, { id: dashboardId })
-  ).data?.result;
+    .toPromise();
+  if (!response.data) {
+    throw new Error(`GraphQL query failed: ${response.error}`);
+  }
+  const dashboard = response.data.result;
 
   if (!dashboard) {
     context.res.statusCode = 404;
@@ -32,14 +36,14 @@ export const getServerSideProps: GetServerSideProps<Props> = async (
       // reduntant: page component doesn't do graphql requests, but it's still nice/more consistent to have data in cache
       urqlState: ssrCache.extractData(),
       dashboard,
-      numCols: !numCols ? null : numCols < 5 ? numCols : 4,
+      numCols: !numCols ? undefined : numCols < 5 ? numCols : 4,
     },
   };
 };
 
 const EmbedDashboardPage: NextPage<Props> = ({ dashboard, numCols }) => {
   if (!dashboard) {
-    return <Error statusCode={404} />;
+    return <NextError statusCode={404} />;
   }
 
   return (

src/pages/index.tsx

@@ -45,8 +45,11 @@ export const getServerSideProps: GetServerSideProps<Props> = async (
   const defaultNumDisplay = 21;
   const initialNumDisplay = Number(urlQuery.numDisplay) || defaultNumDisplay;
 
-  const defaultResults = (await client.query(FrontpageDocument).toPromise())
+  const response = await client.query(FrontpageDocument).toPromise();
-    .data.result;
+  if (!response.data) {
+    throw new Error(`GraphQL query failed: ${response.error}`);
+  }
+  const defaultResults = response.data.result;
 
   if (
     !!initialQueryParameters &&
@@ -58,7 +61,7 @@ export const getServerSideProps: GetServerSideProps<Props> = async (
       .query(SearchDocument, {
         input: {
           ...initialQueryParameters,
-          limit: initialNumDisplay,
+          limit: initialNumDisplay + 50,
         },
       })
       .toPromise();

src/pages/secretEmbed.tsx

@@ -29,16 +29,19 @@ export const getServerSideProps: GetServerSideProps<Props> = async (
 
   let results: QuestionFragment[] = [];
   if (initialQueryParameters.query !== "") {
-    results = (
+    const response = await client
-      await client
+      .query(SearchDocument, {
-        .query(SearchDocument, {
+        input: {
-          input: {
+          ...initialQueryParameters,
-            ...initialQueryParameters,
+          limit: 1,
-            limit: 1,
+        },
-          },
+      })
-        })
+      .toPromise();
-        .toPromise()
+    if (response.data?.result) {
-    ).data.result;
+      results = response.data.result;
+    } else {
+      throw new Error("GraphQL request failed");
+    }
   }
 
   return {

src/utils.ts

@@ -6,3 +6,6 @@ export const shuffleArray = <T>(array: T[]): T[] => {
   }
   return array;
 };
+
+export const average = (array: number[]) =>
+  array.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / array.length;

src/web/common/Layout.tsx

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ import Head from "next/head";
 import Link from "next/link";
 import React, { ErrorInfo } from "react";
 
-import { Logo2 } from "../icons/index";
+import { Logo2 } from "../icons";
 
 interface MenuItem {
   page: string;

src/web/common/MultiSelectPlatform.tsx

@@ -87,7 +87,7 @@ export const MultiSelectPlatform: React.FC<Props> = ({
 
   const selectValue = value.map((v) => id2option[v]).filter((v) => v);
 
-  const onSelectChange = (newValue: Option[]) => {
+  const onSelectChange = (newValue: readonly Option[]) => {
     onChange(newValue.map((o) => o.value));
   };
 

src/web/display/DashboardCreator.tsx

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import React, { EventHandler, SyntheticEvent, useState } from "react";
+import React, { ChangeEvent, EventHandler, SyntheticEvent, useState } from "react";
 
 import { Button } from "../common/Button";
 import { InfoBox } from "../common/InfoBox";
@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ export const DashboardCreator: React.FC<Props> = ({ handleSubmit }) => {
   const [value, setValue] = useState(exampleInput);
   const [acting, setActing] = useState(false);
 
-  const handleChange = (event) => {
+  const handleChange = (event: ChangeEvent<HTMLTextAreaElement>) => {
     setValue(event.target.value);
   };
 
@@ -37,7 +37,9 @@ export const DashboardCreator: React.FC<Props> = ({ handleSubmit }) => {
       }
     } catch (error) {
       setActing(false);
-      const substituteText = `Error: ${error.message}
+      const substituteText = `Error: ${
+        error instanceof Error ? error.message : "Unknown"
+      }
 
 Try something like:
 ${exampleInput}

src/web/display/SliderElement.tsx

@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
-/* Imports */
 import React from "react";
-import { Handles, Rail, Slider, Tracks } from "react-compound-slider";
+import {
+    GetHandleProps, GetTrackProps, Handles, Rail, Slider, SliderItem, Tracks
+} from "react-compound-slider";
 
 // https://sghall.github.io/react-compound-slider/#/getting-started/tutorial
 
@@ -24,12 +25,11 @@ const railStyle = {
 };
 
 /* Support functions */
-function Handle({
+const Handle: React.FC<{
-  handle: { id, value, percent },
+  handle: SliderItem;
-  getHandleProps,
+  getHandleProps: GetHandleProps;
-  displayFunction,
+  displayFunction: (value: number) => string;
-  handleWidth,
+}> = ({ handle: { id, value, percent }, getHandleProps, displayFunction }) => {
-}) {
   return (
     <>
       <div className="justify-center text-center text-gray-600 text-xs">
@@ -53,9 +53,13 @@ function Handle({
       ></div>
     </>
   );
-}
+};
 
-function Track({ source, target, getTrackProps }) {
+const Track: React.FC<{
+  source: SliderItem;
+  target: SliderItem;
+  getTrackProps: GetTrackProps;
+}> = ({ source, target, getTrackProps }) => {
   return (
     <div
       style={{
@@ -74,16 +78,15 @@ function Track({ source, target, getTrackProps }) {
       }
     />
   );
-}
+};
 
 interface Props {
   value: number;
-  onChange: (event: any) => void;
+  onChange: (value: number) => void;
   displayFunction: (value: number) => string;
 }
 
 /* Body */
-// Two functions, essentially identical.
 export const SliderElement: React.FC<Props> = ({
   onChange,
   value,
@@ -96,21 +99,20 @@ export const SliderElement: React.FC<Props> = ({
       }
       domain={[0, 200]}
       values={[value]}
-      onChange={onChange}
+      onChange={(values) => onChange(values[0])}
     >
       <Rail>
         {({ getRailProps }) => <div style={railStyle} {...getRailProps()} />}
       </Rail>
       <Handles>
         {({ handles, getHandleProps }) => (
-          <div className="slider-handles">
+          <div>
             {handles.map((handle) => (
               <Handle
                 key={handle.id}
                 handle={handle}
                 getHandleProps={getHandleProps}
                 displayFunction={displayFunction}
-                handleWidth={"15em"}
               />
             ))}
           </div>
@@ -118,7 +120,7 @@ export const SliderElement: React.FC<Props> = ({
       </Handles>
       <Tracks right={false}>
         {({ tracks, getTrackProps }) => (
-          <div className="slider-tracks">
+          <div>
             {tracks.map(({ id, source, target }) => (
               <Track
                 key={id}

src/web/icons/Favicon.tsx

@@ -1,6 +1,4 @@
-import * as React from "react";
+export const Favicon: React.FC<React.SVGAttributes<SVGElement>> = (props) => {
-
-function SvgFavicon(props) {
   return (
     <svg
       xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"
@@ -11,6 +9,4 @@ function SvgFavicon(props) {
       <path d="M512 64C264.6 64 64 264.6 64 512s200.6 448 448 448 448-200.6 448-448S759.4 64 512 64zm0 820c-205.4 0-372-166.6-372-372s166.6-372 372-372 372 166.6 372 372-166.6 372-372 372zm198.4-588.1a32 32 0 00-24.5.5L414.9 415 296.4 686c-3.6 8.2-3.6 17.5 0 25.7 3.4 7.8 9.7 13.9 17.7 17 3.8 1.5 7.7 2.2 11.7 2.2 4.4 0 8.7-.9 12.8-2.7l271-118.6 118.5-271a32.06 32.06 0 00-17.7-42.7zM576.8 534.4l26.2 26.2-42.4 42.4-26.2-26.2L380 644.4 447.5 490 422 464.4l42.4-42.4 25.5 25.5L644.4 380l-67.6 154.4zM464.4 422L422 464.4l25.5 25.6 86.9 86.8 26.2 26.2 42.4-42.4-26.2-26.2-86.8-86.9z" />
     </svg>
   );
-}
+};
-
-export default SvgFavicon;

src/web/icons/Logo.tsx

@@ -1,6 +1,4 @@
-import * as React from "react";
+export const Logo: React.FC<React.SVGAttributes<SVGElement>> = (props) => {
-
-function SvgLogo(props) {
   return (
     <svg
       width={1333.333}
@@ -76,6 +74,4 @@ function SvgLogo(props) {
       />
     </svg>
   );
-}
+};
-
-export default SvgLogo;

src/web/icons/Logo2.tsx

@@ -1,6 +1,4 @@
-import * as React from "react";
+export const Logo2: React.FC<React.SVGAttributes<SVGElement>> = (props) => {
-
-function SvgLogo2(props) {
   return (
     <svg
       xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"
@@ -69,6 +67,4 @@ function SvgLogo2(props) {
       />
     </svg>
   );
-}
+};
-
-export default SvgLogo2;

src/web/icons/index.ts

@@ -1,3 +1,3 @@
-export { default as Favicon } from "./Favicon";
+export { Favicon } from "./Favicon";
-export { default as Logo } from "./Logo";
+export { Logo } from "./Logo";
-export { default as Logo2 } from "./Logo2";
+export { Logo2 } from "./Logo2";

src/web/questions/components/HistoryChart/InnerChart.tsx

@@ -34,10 +34,12 @@ const getVictoryGroup = ({
   );
 };
 
-export const InnerChart: React.FC<{
+export type Props = {
   data: ChartData;
   highlight: number | undefined;
-}> = ({
+};
+
+export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
   data: { maxProbability, seriesList, minDate, maxDate },
   highlight,
 }) => {
@@ -120,7 +122,7 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<{
       <VictoryAxis
         tickCount={Math.min(7, differenceInDays(maxDate, minDate) + 1)}
         style={{
-          grid: { stroke: null, strokeWidth: 0.5 },
+          grid: { strokeWidth: 0.5 },
         }}
         tickLabelComponent={
           <VictoryLabel

src/web/questions/components/HistoryChart/Legend.tsx

@@ -12,15 +12,17 @@ const LegendItem: React.FC<{ item: Item; onHighlight: () => void }> = ({
   onHighlight,
 }) => {
   const { x, y, reference, floating, strategy } = useFloating({
-    // placement: "right",
     middleware: [shift()],
   });
 
   const [showTooltip, setShowTooltip] = useState(false);
-  const textRef = useRef<HTMLDivElement>();
+  const textRef = useRef<HTMLDivElement>(null);
 
   const onHover = () => {
-    if (textRef.current.scrollWidth > textRef.current.clientWidth) {
+    if (
+      textRef.current &&
+      textRef.current.scrollWidth > textRef.current.clientWidth
+    ) {
       setShowTooltip(true);
     }
     onHighlight();

src/web/questions/components/HistoryChart/index.tsx

@@ -2,11 +2,12 @@ import dynamic from "next/dynamic";
 import React, { useMemo, useState } from "react";
 
 import { QuestionWithHistoryFragment } from "../../../fragments.generated";
+import { Props as InnerChartProps } from "./InnerChart"; // hopefully doesn't import code, just types - need to check
 import { InnerChartPlaceholder } from "./InnerChartPlaceholder";
 import { Legend } from "./Legend";
 import { buildChartData, chartColors } from "./utils";
 
-const InnerChart = dynamic(
+const InnerChart = dynamic<InnerChartProps>(
   () => import("./InnerChart").then((mod) => mod.InnerChart),
   { ssr: false, loading: () => <InnerChartPlaceholder /> }
 );

src/web/questions/components/HistoryChart/utils.ts

@@ -1,6 +1,8 @@
 import { addDays, startOfDay, startOfToday, startOfTomorrow } from "date-fns";
 
+import { isFullQuestionOption } from "../../../../common/types";
 import { QuestionWithHistoryFragment } from "../../../fragments.generated";
+import { isQuestionBinary } from "../../../utils";
 
 export type ChartSeries = { x: Date; y: number; name: string }[];
 
@@ -33,6 +35,7 @@ export const buildChartData = (
   question: QuestionWithHistoryFragment
 ): ChartData => {
   let seriesNames = question.options
+    .filter(isFullQuestionOption)
     .sort((a, b) => {
       if (a.probability > b.probability) {
         return -1;
@@ -44,9 +47,7 @@ export const buildChartData = (
     .map((o) => o.name)
     .slice(0, MAX_LINES);
 
-  const isBinary =
+  const isBinary = isQuestionBinary(question);
-    (seriesNames[0] === "Yes" && seriesNames[1] === "No") ||
-    (seriesNames[0] === "No" && seriesNames[1] === "Yes");
   if (isBinary) {
     seriesNames = ["Yes"];
   }
@@ -69,6 +70,9 @@ export const buildChartData = (
       const date = new Date(item.timestamp * 1000);
 
       for (const option of item.options) {
+        if (option.name == null || option.probability == null) {
+          continue;
+        }
         const idx = nameToIndex[option.name];
         if (idx === undefined) {
           continue;

src/web/questions/components/IndicatorsTable.tsx

@@ -45,18 +45,18 @@ export const IndicatorsTable: React.FC<Props> = ({ question }) => (
         ) : null}
         {Object.keys(question.qualityIndicators)
           .filter(
-            (indicator) =>
+            (indicator): indicator is UsedIndicatorName =>
-              question.qualityIndicators[indicator] != null &&
+              (question.qualityIndicators as any)[indicator] != null &&
-              !!qualityIndicatorLabels[indicator]
+              indicator in qualityIndicatorLabels
           )
-          .map((indicator: UsedIndicatorName) => {
+          .map((indicator) => {
             return (
               <TableRow
                 title={qualityIndicatorLabels[indicator]}
                 key={indicator}
               >
                 {formatIndicatorValue(
-                  question.qualityIndicators[indicator],
+                  Number(question.qualityIndicators[indicator]), // must be non-null due to former check
                   indicator,
                   question.platform.id
                 )}

src/web/questions/components/QuestionCard/QuestionFooter.tsx

@@ -30,13 +30,17 @@ export const qualityIndicatorLabels: { [k in UsedIndicatorName]: string } = {
   openInterest: "Interest",
 };
 
-const formatNumber = (num) => {
+const isUsedIndicatorName = (name: string): name is UsedIndicatorName => {
-  if (Number(num) < 1000) {
+  return name in qualityIndicatorLabels;
-    return Number(num).toFixed(0);
+};
+
+const formatNumber = (num: number) => {
+  if (num < 1000) {
+    return num.toFixed(0);
   } else if (num < 10000) {
-    return (Number(num) / 1000).toFixed(1) + "k";
+    return (num / 1000).toFixed(1) + "k";
   } else {
-    return (Number(num) / 1000).toFixed(0) + "k";
+    return (num / 1000).toFixed(0) + "k";
   }
 };
 
@@ -100,7 +104,7 @@ const FirstQualityIndicator: React.FC<{
 };
 
 export const formatIndicatorValue = (
-  value: any,
+  value: number,
   indicator: UsedIndicatorName,
   platform: string
 ): string => {
@@ -119,21 +123,26 @@ const QualityIndicatorsList: React.FC<{
   return (
     <div className="text-sm">
       <FirstQualityIndicator question={question} />
-      {Object.entries(question.qualityIndicators).map((entry, i) => {
+      {Object.entries(question.qualityIndicators).map(
-        const indicatorLabel = qualityIndicatorLabels[entry[0]];
+        ([indicator, value], i) => {
-        if (!indicatorLabel || entry[1] === null) return;
+          if (!isUsedIndicatorName(indicator)) return;
-        const indicator = entry[0] as UsedIndicatorName; // guaranteed by the previous line
+          const indicatorLabel = qualityIndicatorLabels[indicator];
-        const value = entry[1];
+          if (!indicatorLabel || value === null) return;
 
-        return (
+          return (
-          <div key={indicator}>
+            <div key={indicator}>
-            <span>{indicatorLabel}:</span>&nbsp;
+              <span>{indicatorLabel}:</span>&nbsp;
-            <span className="font-bold">
+              <span className="font-bold">
-              {formatIndicatorValue(value, indicator, question.platform.id)}
+                {formatIndicatorValue(
-            </span>
+                  Number(value),
-          </div>
+                  indicator,
-        );
+                  question.platform.id
-      })}
+                )}
+              </span>
+            </div>
+          );
+        }
+      )}
     </div>
   );
 };

src/web/questions/components/QuestionCard/index.tsx

@@ -13,62 +13,25 @@ const truncateText = (length: number, text: string): string => {
   if (!text) {
     return "";
   }
-  if (!!text && text.length <= length) {
+  if (text.length <= length) {
     return text;
   }
   const breakpoints = " .!?";
-  let lastLetter = null;
+  let lastLetter: string | undefined = undefined;
-  let lastIndex = null;
+  let lastIndex: number | undefined = undefined;
   for (let index = length; index > 0; index--) {
-    let letter = text[index];
+    const letter = text[index];
     if (breakpoints.includes(letter)) {
       lastLetter = letter;
       lastIndex = index;
       break;
     }
   }
-  let truncatedText = !!text.slice
+  let truncatedText =
-    ? text.slice(0, lastIndex) + (lastLetter != "." ? "..." : "..")
+    text.slice(0, lastIndex) + (lastLetter != "." ? "..." : "..");
-    : "";
   return truncatedText;
 };
 
-// replaceAll polyfill
-function escapeRegExp(string) {
-  return string.replace(/[.*+?^${}()|[\]\\]/g, "\\$&"); // $& means the whole matched string
-}
-
-function replaceAll(
-  originalString: string,
-  pattern: string | RegExp,
-  substitute
-) {
-  return originalString.replace(
-    new RegExp(escapeRegExp(pattern), "g"),
-    substitute
-  );
-}
-
-if (!String.prototype.replaceAll) {
-  String.prototype.replaceAll = function (
-    pattern: string | RegExp,
-    substitute
-  ) {
-    let originalString = this;
-
-    // If a regex pattern
-    if (
-      Object.prototype.toString.call(pattern).toLowerCase() ===
-      "[object regexp]"
-    ) {
-      return originalString.replace(pattern, substitute);
-    }
-
-    // If a string
-    return replaceAll(originalString, pattern, substitute);
-  };
-}
-
 // Auxiliary components
 
 const DisplayMarkdown: React.FC<{ description: string }> = ({
@@ -153,14 +116,14 @@ export const QuestionCard: React.FC<Props> = ({
           </div>
           {isBinary ? (
             <div className="flex justify-between">
-              <QuestionOptions options={options} />
+              <QuestionOptions question={question} />
               <div className={`hidden ${showTimeStamp ? "sm:block" : ""}`}>
                 <LastUpdated timestamp={lastUpdated} />
               </div>
             </div>
           ) : (
             <div className="space-y-2">
-              <QuestionOptions options={options} />
+              <QuestionOptions question={question} />
               <div className={`hidden ${showTimeStamp ? "sm:block" : ""} ml-6`}>
                 <LastUpdated timestamp={lastUpdated} />
               </div>
@@ -173,7 +136,7 @@ export const QuestionCard: React.FC<Props> = ({
             </div>
           )}
 
-          {question.platform.id === "guesstimate" && (
+          {question.platform.id === "guesstimate" && question.visualization && (
             <img
               className="rounded-sm"
               src={question.visualization}

src/web/questions/components/QuestionIndicators.tsx

@@ -1,227 +0,0 @@
-import { QuestionFragment } from "../../fragments.generated";
-
-type QualityIndicator = QuestionFragment["qualityIndicators"];
-type IndicatorName = keyof QualityIndicator;
-
-// this duplication can probably be simplified with typescript magic, but this is good enough for now
-type UsedIndicatorName =
-  | "volume"
-  | "numForecasters"
-  | "spread"
-  | "sharesVolume"
-  | "liquidity"
-  | "tradeVolume"
-  | "openInterest";
-
-const qualityIndicatorLabels: { [k in UsedIndicatorName]: string } = {
-  // numForecasts: null,
-  // stars: null,
-  // yesBid: "Yes bid",
-  // yesAsk: "Yes ask",
-  volume: "Volume",
-  numForecasters: "Forecasters",
-  spread: "Spread",
-  sharesVolume: "Shares vol.",
-  liquidity: "Liquidity",
-  tradeVolume: "Volume",
-  openInterest: "Interest",
-};
-
-const formatNumber = (num) => {
-  if (Number(num) < 1000) {
-    return Number(num).toFixed(0);
-  } else if (num < 10000) {
-    return (Number(num) / 1000).toFixed(1) + "k";
-  } else {
-    return (Number(num) / 1000).toFixed(0) + "k";
-  }
-};
-
-/* Display functions*/
-
-const getPercentageSymbolIfNeeded = ({
-  indicator,
-  platform,
-}: {
-  indicator: UsedIndicatorName;
-  platform: string;
-}) => {
-  let indicatorsWhichNeedPercentageSymbol: IndicatorName[] = ["spread"];
-  if (indicatorsWhichNeedPercentageSymbol.includes(indicator)) {
-    return "%";
-  } else {
-    return "";
-  }
-};
-
-const getCurrencySymbolIfNeeded = ({
-  indicator,
-  platform,
-}: {
-  indicator: UsedIndicatorName;
-  platform: string;
-}) => {
-  const indicatorsWhichNeedCurrencySymbol: IndicatorName[] = [
-    "volume",
-    "tradeVolume",
-    "openInterest",
-    "liquidity",
-  ];
-  let dollarPlatforms = ["predictit", "kalshi", "polymarket"];
-  if (indicatorsWhichNeedCurrencySymbol.includes(indicator)) {
-    if (dollarPlatforms.includes(platform)) {
-      return "$";
-    } else {
-      return "£";
-    }
-  } else {
-    return "";
-  }
-};
-
-const FirstQualityIndicator: React.FC<{
-  question: QuestionFragment;
-}> = ({ question }) => {
-  if (question.qualityIndicators.numForecasts) {
-    return (
-      <div className="flex">
-        <span>Forecasts:</span>&nbsp;
-        <span className="font-bold">
-          {Number(question.qualityIndicators.numForecasts).toFixed(0)}
-        </span>
-      </div>
-    );
-  } else {
-    return null;
-  }
-};
-
-const QualityIndicatorsList: React.FC<{
-  question: QuestionFragment;
-}> = ({ question }) => {
-  return (
-    <div className="text-sm">
-      <FirstQualityIndicator question={question} />
-      {Object.entries(question.qualityIndicators).map((entry, i) => {
-        const indicatorLabel = qualityIndicatorLabels[entry[0]];
-        if (!indicatorLabel || entry[1] === null) return;
-        const indicator = entry[0] as UsedIndicatorName; // guaranteed by the previous line
-        const value = entry[1];
-
-        return (
-          <div key={indicator}>
-            <span>{indicatorLabel}:</span>&nbsp;
-            <span className="font-bold">
-              {`${getCurrencySymbolIfNeeded({
-                indicator,
-                platform: question.platform.id,
-              })}${formatNumber(value)}${getPercentageSymbolIfNeeded({
-                indicator,
-                platform: question.platform.id,
-              })}`}
-            </span>
-          </div>
-        );
-      })}
-    </div>
-  );
-};
-
-// Database-like functions
-export function getstars(numstars: number) {
-  let stars = "★★☆☆☆";
-  switch (numstars) {
-    case 0:
-      stars = "☆☆☆☆☆";
-      break;
-    case 1:
-      stars = "★☆☆☆☆";
-      break;
-    case 2:
-      stars = "★★☆☆☆";
-      break;
-    case 3:
-      stars = "★★★☆☆";
-      break;
-    case 4:
-      stars = "★★★★☆";
-      break;
-    case 5:
-      stars = "★★★★★";
-      break;
-    default:
-      stars = "★★☆☆☆";
-  }
-  return stars;
-}
-
-function getStarsColor(numstars: number) {
-  let color = "text-yellow-400";
-  switch (numstars) {
-    case 0:
-      color = "text-red-400";
-      break;
-    case 1:
-      color = "text-red-400";
-      break;
-    case 2:
-      color = "text-orange-400";
-      break;
-    case 3:
-      color = "text-yellow-400";
-      break;
-    case 4:
-      color = "text-green-400";
-      break;
-    case 5:
-      color = "text-blue-400";
-      break;
-    default:
-      color = "text-yellow-400";
-  }
-  return color;
-}
-
-interface Props {
-  question: QuestionFragment;
-  expandFooterToFullWidth: boolean;
-}
-
-export const QuestionFooter: React.FC<Props> = ({
-  question,
-  expandFooterToFullWidth,
-}) => {
-  return (
-    <div
-      className={`grid grid-cols-3 ${
-        expandFooterToFullWidth ? "justify-between" : ""
-      } text-gray-500 mb-2 mt-1`}
-    >
-      <div
-        className={`self-center col-span-1 ${getStarsColor(
-          question.qualityIndicators.stars
-        )}`}
-      >
-        {getstars(question.qualityIndicators.stars)}
-      </div>
-      <div
-        className={`${
-          expandFooterToFullWidth ? "place-self-center" : "self-center"
-        }  col-span-1 font-bold`}
-      >
-        {question.platform.label
-          .replace("Good Judgment Open", "GJOpen")
-          .replace(/ /g, "\u00a0")}
-      </div>
-      <div
-        className={`${
-          expandFooterToFullWidth
-            ? "justify-self-end mr-4"
-            : "justify-self-center"
-        } col-span-1`}
-      >
-        <QualityIndicatorsList question={question} />
-      </div>
-    </div>
-  );
-};

src/web/questions/components/QuestionOptions.tsx

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
+import { FullQuestionOption, isFullQuestionOption } from "../../../common/types";
 import { QuestionFragment } from "../../fragments.generated";
+import { isQuestionBinary } from "../../utils";
 import { formatProbability } from "../utils";
 
-type Option = QuestionFragment["options"][0];
-
 const textColor = (probability: number) => {
   if (probability < 0.03) {
     return "text-red-600";
@@ -89,7 +89,7 @@ const chooseColor = (probability: number) => {
   }
 };
 
-const OptionRow: React.FC<{ option: Option }> = ({ option }) => {
+const OptionRow: React.FC<{ option: FullQuestionOption }> = ({ option }) => {
   return (
     <div className="flex items-center">
       <div
@@ -106,15 +106,19 @@ const OptionRow: React.FC<{ option: Option }> = ({ option }) => {
   );
 };
 
-export const QuestionOptions: React.FC<{ options: Option[] }> = ({
+export const QuestionOptions: React.FC<{ question: QuestionFragment }> = ({
-  options,
+  question,
 }) => {
-  const isBinary =
+  const isBinary = isQuestionBinary(question);
-    options.length === 2 &&
-    (options[0].name === "Yes" || options[0].name === "No");
 
   if (isBinary) {
-    const yesOption = options.find((o) => o.name === "Yes");
+    const yesOption = question.options.find((o) => o.name === "Yes");
+    if (!yesOption) {
+      return null; // shouldn't happen
+    }
+    if (!isFullQuestionOption(yesOption)) {
+      return null; // missing data
+    }
     return (
       <div className="space-x-2">
         <span
@@ -134,8 +138,11 @@ export const QuestionOptions: React.FC<{ options: Option[] }> = ({
       </div>
     );
   } else {
-    const optionsSorted = options.sort((a, b) => b.probability - a.probability);
+    const optionsSorted = question.options
-    const optionsMax5 = !!optionsSorted.slice ? optionsSorted.slice(0, 5) : []; // display max 5 options.
+      .filter(isFullQuestionOption)
+      .sort((a, b) => b.probability - a.probability);
+
+    const optionsMax5 = optionsSorted.slice(0, 5); // display max 5 options.
 
     return (
       <div className="space-y-2">

src/web/questions/pages/QuestionPage.tsx

@@ -74,7 +74,7 @@ const LargeQuestionCard: React.FC<{
     </div>
 
     <div className="mb-8">
-      {question.platform.id === "guesstimate" ? (
+      {question.platform.id === "guesstimate" && question.visualization ? (
         <a className="no-underline" href={question.url} target="_blank">
           <img
             className="rounded-sm"

src/web/search/components/QueryForm.tsx

@@ -1,3 +1,5 @@
+import { ChangeEvent } from "react";
+
 interface Props {
   value: string;
   onChange: (v: string) => void;
@@ -9,7 +11,7 @@ export const QueryForm: React.FC<Props> = ({
   onChange,
   placeholder,
 }) => {
-  const handleInputChange = (event) => {
+  const handleInputChange = (event: ChangeEvent<HTMLInputElement>) => {
     event.preventDefault();
     onChange(event.target.value); // In this case, the query, e.g. "COVID.19"
   };

src/web/search/components/SearchScreen.tsx

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 import { useRouter } from "next/router";
-import React, { Fragment, useMemo, useState } from "react";
+import React, { useMemo, useState } from "react";
 import { useQuery } from "urql";
 
 import { PlatformConfig } from "../../../backend/platforms";
@@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ export const SearchScreen: React.FC<Props> = ({
     variables: {
       input: {
         ...queryParameters,
-        limit: numDisplay,
+        limit: numDisplay + 50,
       },
     },
     pause: !isFirstRender,
@@ -126,7 +126,8 @@ export const SearchScreen: React.FC<Props> = ({
   };
 
   const updateRoute = () => {
-    const stringify = (key: string, value: any) => {
+    const stringify = (key: string, obj: { [k: string]: any }) => {
+      const value = obj[key];
       if (key === "forecastingPlatforms") {
         return value.join("|");
       } else {
@@ -134,15 +135,16 @@ export const SearchScreen: React.FC<Props> = ({
       }
     };
 
-    const query = {};
+    const query: { [k: string]: string } = {};
     for (const key of Object.keys(defaultQueryParameters)) {
-      const value = stringify(key, queryParameters[key]);
+      const value = stringify(key, queryParameters);
-      const defaultValue = stringify(key, defaultQueryParameters[key]);
+      const defaultValue = stringify(key, defaultQueryParameters);
       if (value === defaultValue) continue;
       query[key] = value;
     }
 
-    if (numDisplay !== defaultNumDisplay) query["numDisplay"] = numDisplay;
+    if (numDisplay !== defaultNumDisplay)
+      query["numDisplay"] = String(numDisplay);
 
     router.replace(
       {
@@ -191,8 +193,8 @@ export const SearchScreen: React.FC<Props> = ({
       (Math.round(value) === 1 ? "" : "s")
     );
   };
-  const onChangeSliderForNumDisplay = (event) => {
+  const onChangeSliderForNumDisplay = (value: number) => {
-    setNumDisplay(Math.round(event[0]));
+    setNumDisplay(Math.round(value));
     setForceSearch(forceSearch + 1); // FIXME - force new search iff numDisplay is greater than last search limit
   };
 
@@ -200,10 +202,10 @@ export const SearchScreen: React.FC<Props> = ({
   const displayFunctionNumForecasts = (value: number) => {
     return "# Forecasts > " + Math.round(value);
   };
-  const onChangeSliderForNumForecasts = (event) => {
+  const onChangeSliderForNumForecasts = (value: number) => {
     setQueryParameters({
       ...queryParameters,
-      forecastsThreshold: Math.round(event[0]),
+      forecastsThreshold: Math.round(value),
     });
   };
 
@@ -230,7 +232,7 @@ export const SearchScreen: React.FC<Props> = ({
 
   /* Final return */
   return (
-    <Fragment>
+    <>
       <label className="mb-4 mt-4 flex flex-row justify-center items-center">
         <div className="w-10/12 mb-2">
           <QueryForm
@@ -317,6 +319,6 @@ export const SearchScreen: React.FC<Props> = ({
           </p>
         </div>
       ) : null}
-    </Fragment>
+    </>
   );
 };

src/web/urql.ts

@@ -36,5 +36,8 @@ export const getUrqlClientOptions = (ssr: SSRExchange) => ({
 export const ssrUrql = () => {
   const ssrCache = ssrExchange({ isClient: false });
   const client = initUrqlClient(getUrqlClientOptions(ssrCache), false);
+  if (!client) {
+    throw new Error("Expected non-null client instance from initUrqlClient");
+  }
   return [ssrCache, client] as const;
 };

src/web/utils.ts

@@ -1,3 +1,5 @@
+import { QuestionFragment } from "./fragments.generated";
+
 export const getBasePath = () => {
   if (process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_VERCEL_URL) {
     return `https://${process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_VERCEL_URL}`;
@@ -29,3 +31,12 @@ export const cleanText = (text: string): string => {
   //console.log(textString)
   return textString;
 };
+
+export const isQuestionBinary = (question: QuestionFragment): boolean => {
+  const { options } = question;
+  return (
+    options.length === 2 &&
+    ((options[0].name === "Yes" && options[1].name === "No") ||
+      (options[0].name === "No" && options[1].name === "Yes"))
+  );
+};

src/web/worker/searchWithAlgolia.ts

@@ -1,18 +1,31 @@
 import algoliasearch from "algoliasearch";
 
+import { Hit } from "@algolia/client-search";
+
 import { AlgoliaQuestion } from "../../backend/utils/algolia";
 
 const client = algoliasearch(
-  process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_ALGOLIA_APP_ID,
+  process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_ALGOLIA_APP_ID || "",
-  process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_ALGOLIA_SEARCH_KEY
+  process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_ALGOLIA_SEARCH_KEY || ""
 );
 const index = client.initIndex("metaforecast");
 
-let buildFilter = ({
+interface SearchOpts {
+  queryString: string;
+  hitsPerPage?: number;
+  starsThreshold?: number;
+  filterByPlatforms?: string[];
+  forecastsThreshold?: number;
+}
+
+const buildFilter = ({
   starsThreshold,
   filterByPlatforms,
   forecastsThreshold,
-}) => {
+}: Pick<
+  SearchOpts,
+  "starsThreshold" | "filterByPlatforms" | "forecastsThreshold"
+>) => {
   const starsFilter = starsThreshold
     ? `qualityindicators.stars >= ${starsThreshold}`
     : null;
@@ -20,7 +33,7 @@ let buildFilter = ({
     ? filterByPlatforms.map((platform) => `platform:"${platform}"`).join(" OR ")
     : null;
   const numForecastsFilter =
-    forecastsThreshold > 0
+    forecastsThreshold && forecastsThreshold > 0
       ? `qualityindicators.numforecasts >= ${forecastsThreshold}`
       : null;
   const finalFilter = [starsFilter, platformsFilter, numForecastsFilter]
@@ -35,26 +48,15 @@ let buildFilter = ({
   return finalFilter;
 };
 
-let buildFacetFilter = ({ filterByPlatforms }) => {
+const noExactMatch = (queryString: string, result: Hit<AlgoliaQuestion>) => {
-  let platformsFilter = [];
-  if (filterByPlatforms.length > 0) {
-    platformsFilter = [
-      [filterByPlatforms.map((platform) => `platform:${platform}`)],
-    ];
-  }
-  console.log(platformsFilter);
-  console.log(
-    "searchWithAlgolia.js/searchWithAlgolia/buildFacetFilter",
-    platformsFilter
-  );
-  return platformsFilter;
-};
-
-let noExactMatch = (queryString, result) => {
   queryString = queryString.toLowerCase();
-  let title = result.title.toLowerCase();
+
-  let description = result.description.toLowerCase();
+  const title = result.title.toLowerCase();
-  let optionsstringforsearch = result.optionsstringforsearch.toLowerCase();
+  const description = result.description.toLowerCase();
+  const optionsstringforsearch = (
+    result.optionsstringforsearch || ""
+  ).toLowerCase();
+
   return !(
     title.includes(queryString) ||
     description.includes(queryString) ||
@@ -62,14 +64,6 @@ let noExactMatch = (queryString, result) => {
   );
 };
 
-interface SearchOpts {
-  queryString: string;
-  hitsPerPage?: number;
-  starsThreshold: number;
-  filterByPlatforms: string[];
-  forecastsThreshold: number;
-}
-
 // only query string
 export default async function searchWithAlgolia({
   queryString,

tsconfig.json

@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@
       "dom.iterable",
       "esnext"
     ],
-    "strict": false,
+    "strict": true,
     "noEmit": true,
     "incremental": true,
     "moduleResolution": "node",